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OMV Aktiengesellschaft (OMVKY)
OTHER OTC:OMVKY
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OMV Aktiengesellschaft
(OTC:OMVKY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
â–²(39.60% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/06/26
The score is driven primarily by resilient cash generation and manageable leverage despite a clear earnings downcycle. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages and positive MACD. A high dividend yield helps valuation, while earnings-call guidance flags near-term margin pressure (refining and chemicals) and a temporary leverage increase after the BGI closing.
Positive Factors
Resilient cash generation
OMV's sustained €~5B operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for dividends, maintenance and growth CapEx, and debt servicing. This cash-generation capacity reduces reliance on volatile equity markets and supports steady shareholder distributions and strategic investments.
Integrated, diversified portfolio
OMV's upstream, refining, chemicals and gas trading integration plus a strengthened gas portfolio diversify earnings sources and reduce single-supplier or single-market exposure. This structural diversification smooths cash flows across cycles and enhances resilience to regional supply shocks.
Strong balance sheet & transaction financing
A low leverage base, investment‑grade ratings and secured financing for the BGI transaction give OMV financial flexibility to execute acquisitions and growth projects. This capacity preserves strategic optionality and supports planned integration synergies without immediate distress on liquidity.
Negative Factors
Prolonged revenue and earnings downcycle
Multi-year revenue declines and a material fall in net income indicate a weaker earnings base and lower profitability resilience. Persistently reduced top-line and margins constrain reinvestment capacity, slow equity rebuild, and leave OMV more exposed to prolonged commodity or demand downturns.
Chemicals & refining margin pressure
Management's guidance for lower refining margins and ongoing weak petrochemicals demand implies structural pressure on downstream profitability. Sustained weaker spreads and below‑peak cracker utilization will compress cash returns from fuels and chemicals, reducing cyclical upside in near term.
Declining production and volume base
Lower E&P volumes—driven by asset sales and natural declines—erode the company's intrinsic production base and reduce feedstock for refineries and chemicals. Without offsetting upstream investment or successful exploratory ties‑in, sustained lower volumes weaken long‑term cash generation and integration benefits.
OMV Aktiengesellschaft (OMVKY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.99B
Dividend Yield9.56%
Average Volume (3M)805.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)63.7
Beta (1Y)0.27
Revenue Growth-23.01%
EPS Growth-3.64%
CountryUS
Employees23,463
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.49
Shares Outstanding1,309,091,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume805
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.18
Price to Book (P/B)4.33
Price to Sales (P/S)2.66
P/FCF Ratio47.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.03
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.48
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.97B
OMV Aktiengesellschaft Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOMV Aktiengesellschaft operates as an energy and chemicals company in Austria, Germany, Romania, Norway, New Zealand, the United Arab Emirates, the rest of Central and Eastern Europe, the rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Exploration & Production, Refining & Marketing, and Chemicals & Materials segments. The Exploration & Production segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in the regions of Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the North Sea, and the Asia Pacific. The Refining & Marketing segment is involved in the refining and marketing of fuels and other feedstock. It has 3 inland refineries in Europe; approximately 2,100 filling stations in ten European countries; and gas storage facilities in Austria and Germany, as well as a gas-fired power plant in Romania. This segment is also involved in the supply, marketing, and trading of gas in Europe and Turkey. The Chemicals & Materials segment provides advanced and circular polyolefin solutions, base chemicals, and fertilizers, as well as engages in the recycling of plastics. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Vienna, Austria.
How the Company Makes MoneyOMV primarily makes money through multiple operating segments that generate revenue from selling hydrocarbons, fuels, and chemical products, as well as from energy-related services and trading. (1) Exploration & Production (upstream): OMV earns revenue by producing and selling crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from its operated and non-operated fields. Earnings in this segment are driven mainly by realized commodity prices, production volumes, lifting costs, and the fiscal/royalty and tax terms in the countries where it operates. (2) Refining & Marketing (downstream): OMV generates revenue by purchasing crude oil and other feedstocks, processing them in refineries into products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and other refined outputs, and selling these products via wholesale and retail channels (including service stations). Profitability is influenced by refining margins (the spread between product prices and crude/feedstock costs), refinery utilization, product mix, and demand in served markets. Retail also contributes via non-fuel sales and services at stations where applicable. (3) Chemicals & Materials: OMV earns revenue from selling petrochemicals, polymers, and related chemical/material products made from hydrocarbon-based feedstocks. This segment’s earnings depend on sales volumes, product pricing, and the spread between chemical product prices and feedstock/energy costs. (4) Gas & power / trading, supply and logistics (where applicable in its structure): OMV can generate revenue and earnings through natural gas marketing and trading, optimization of supply portfolios, storage/transport capacity usage, and related margin-based activities; results are influenced by market volatility, contract structures (e.g., hub-indexed vs other pricing), and risk management. Across the company, significant factors affecting earnings include global oil and gas prices, refining and petrochemical margins, demand conditions, operational reliability (e.g., refinery uptime), and the performance of integrated value chains that link upstream production and downstream/chemicals feedstock needs.
OMV Aktiengesellschaft Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive financial and strategic picture: OMV delivered very strong operating cash flow, maintained an attractive dividend, advanced major growth and decarbonization projects, secured financing for the BGI transaction and achieved substantial efficiency program progress. These positives are tempered by weaker Clean CCS results versus the prior year (partly driven by one‑off comparatives), commodity price declines, reduced E&P production due to asset divestment and natural declines, and a subdued chemicals market in the near term. The company expects leverage to rise after the BGI close but to remain within conservative limits and provided disciplined CapEx guidance for 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Robust operating cash flow and shareholder distributions
Full-year cash flow from operating activities of EUR 5.2 billion (only 4% below prior year). Fourth-quarter operating cash flow of ~EUR 1.7 billion, up >60% year‑on‑year. Free cash flow positive at EUR 180 million after EUR 2.3 billion of dividends. Proposed total dividend of EUR 4.40 per share (regular EUR 3.15 + additional EUR 1.25), representing a 9.3% yield and 28% of operating cash flow.
Substantial progress on efficiency program
Delivered more than EUR 350 million of additional annual cash flow vs. 2023 (around 70% of the EUR 500 million 2027 target) through technical oil production improvements, gas flow optimization, E&P cost base reductions and refining/utilities optimization.
Strong balance sheet and transaction financing secured
Leverage ratio at a healthy 14% at year-end 2025 with investment‑grade ratings (Fitch A-, Moody's A3). Secured financing of USD 15.4 billion to support the Nova/BGI transaction. Expected synergies of more than USD 500 million from the Borouge Group International (BGI) integration.
Fuels segment outperformance in Q4
Clean CCS operating result for Fuels more than tripled to EUR 346 million in Q4 driven by substantially stronger refining indicator margins (EUR-equivalent approx. $14/barrel in Q4), high refining utilization (89%), improved ADNOC refining & global trading contribution and better retail/marketing performance.
Chemicals segment resilience and growth project progress
Chemicals Clean CCS operating result rose sharply to EUR 236 million in Q4 (partly due to cessation of Borealis depreciation). Polyolefin sales volumes (including JVs) up (group polyolefin volumes +3% y/y; Borealis excl. JVs +4%). Commissioned the ReOil chemical recycling plant; Kallo PDH expected to start in H2 2026 (targeted EBITDA after ramp-up ~EUR 200 million) and Borouge 4 ramping through 2026 (full‑run EBITDA target ~$900 million).
Energy strategic milestones and portfolio diversification
Neptun Deep (OMV Petrom flagship gas project) on track and within budget for start-up in 2027. Black Sea exploration activity advanced (two wells contracted in Bulgaria). Libya discovery in Sirte Basin with estimated recoverable volumes of 15–42 million boe close to infrastructure, expected to be tied in rapidly (target contribution by next year). Company reports it is no longer dependent on any single gas supplier and has its strongest gas portfolio in history.
Disciplined CapEx guidance and low 2026 organic spend
Organic CapEx guidance for 2026 around EUR 3.2 billion (substantially lower than recent years and excluding Borealis-related spend). About 70% of 2026 organic CapEx allocated to growth; unit production costs expected to remain below $11/boe.
Negative Updates
Clean CCS operating result decline
Full-year Clean CCS operating result of EUR 4.6 billion, down 10% versus prior year. Q4 Clean CCS operating result around EUR 1.15 billion, down EUR 222 million or 16% year‑on‑year (prior-year quarter benefited from a EUR 210 million arbitration award; excluding that one-off the quarter would be broadly in line).
Energy segment weakness and commodity price headwinds
Energy Clean CCS operating result dropped to EUR 586 million in Q4. Realized oil price fell 13% to $62/barrel and realized gas price decreased 14% to EUR 26/MWh (European gas hub prices fell ~28%). Negative currency effects reduced results by ~EUR 80 million.
Production and sales volume declines
Production volumes declined 11% to 300,000 boe/day in Q4, largely driven by the divestment of Malaysian assets (24,000 boe/day). Excluding the divestment, E&P production decreased ~4% due to natural declines in Norway, Romania and New Zealand. Sales volumes fell by around 65,000 boe/day, aggravated by missing SapuraOMV volumes and lower sales in Norway and Libya.
Subdued chemicals market and lower utilization
European cracker utilization dropped to 72% in Q4 (significantly below prior year) due to weak demand and year‑end inventory optimization. Base chemicals and polyolefins results declined amid softer indicator margins and market discounts, despite some volume growth and positive one-offs (deconsolidation, stop of depreciation).
One-offs and cash-flow timing effects affecting comparability
Q4 2024 included a positive net arbitration award (~EUR 210 million) which inflates prior‑year comparatives. Q4 2025 was impacted by a year-end net cash outflow related to CO2 emission certificates of around EUR 330 million, affecting quarter-on-quarter cash-flow comparability.
Refining margin outlook and commercial margin pressure for 2026
Management expects 2026 refining indicator margin to revert to around $8/barrel (vs. ~$14/bbl in Q4 2025) and projects retail/commercial margins to be slightly below 2025 levels, indicating weaker profitability in Fuels for the year ahead compared with the Q4 peak.
Leverage to increase post-BGI closing
After the BGI transaction closes (expected Q1), OMV anticipates a leverage increase into the low‑20s percentage by year‑end (from 14% at year-end 2025) due to deconsolidation and an equity injection of up to EUR 1.6 billion — although management expects this to remain well below the 30% threshold.
Chemicals market recovery not yet visible in near term
Management does not expect a significant recovery in petrochemicals markets in the first half of 2026; realized margins will continue to be affected by market discounts and utilization improvements may only materialize through 2026 (crackers expected ~90% utilization in 2026).
Company Guidance
OMV guided organic CapEx of around EUR 3.2 billion for 2026 (≈60% energy, majority of the remainder to fuels; ~70% growth projects, ~30% sustainable), with average organic CapEx to 2030 below the prior EUR 2.8 billion p.a. target; market assumptions of Brent ≈ $65/bl, TAG gas > €30/MWh and OMV realized gas < €30/MWh; Energy output slightly below 300,000 boe/d with unit production costs expected to stay below $11/boe and exploration & appraisal spend < €200 million; Fuels refining indicator margin forecast ≈ $8/bl with European refinery utilization >90% and total fuel sales volumes higher year-on-year (retail/commercial margins slightly below 2025); Chemicals: European olefin indicator margins expected slightly below prior year and two crackers’ utilization ~90% in 2026; full‑year clean tax rate ~45%; capital structure and shareholder returns: propose EUR 3.15 regular + EUR 1.25 additional = EUR 4.40/share (9.3% yield, payout ~28% of operating cash flow), new dividend policy to distribute 20–30% of consolidated CFO plus 50% of OMV’s share of any BGI dividend, BGI floor dividend net to OMV at least USD 1 billion for 2026, BGI closing expected Q1 and leverage anticipated in the low‑20%s (around 22% post close, easing by year‑end).OMV Aktiengesellschaft Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Cash flow is the strongest pillar (2025 operating cash flow ~€5.0B and improved free cash flow ~€1.31B), while profitability has weakened materially from prior peaks (net income ~€1.0B in 2025 vs ~€3.7B in 2022) and revenues have declined for multiple years. Leverage appears manageable for the industry, though equity declined from 2024 to 2025 and lower profitability reduces financial flexibility.Income Statement
Profitability remains positive, with 2025 revenue of ~€23.3B and EBIT of ~€2.9B, but the earnings trajectory has weakened materially versus prior years. Revenue has declined for multiple years (including ~-13% in 2025 and slightly negative in 2024), and net income fell to ~€1.0B in 2025 from ~€1.45B in 2024 and ~€3.7B in 2022, indicating meaningful cyclicality and margin pressure versus peak conditions. Strengths are continued positive operating profit and a track record of stronger margins in prior upcycles; weakness is the clear downcycle in both revenue and bottom-line profitability.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable for the industry, with debt around €10.9B against equity of ~€14.3B in 2025 (debt-to-equity was ~0.53–0.58 in 2022–2024, improving from ~0.87 in 2020). Equity remains sizable, but it has declined from 2024 to 2025, and returns on equity have come down significantly from the 2022 peak, reflecting lower profitability. Overall, the balance sheet is reasonably stable, though the earnings downturn makes deleveraging and equity rebuild more challenging.63
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative bright spot: operating cash flow remained strong at ~€5.0B in 2025 (only modestly below ~€5.5–€5.7B in 2023–2024), and free cash flow improved to ~€1.31B in 2025 with a sharp positive growth rate versus 2024. That said, free cash flow was higher in 2021–2022 (~€4.5–€4.8B), highlighting commodity-driven volatility, and 2024 metrics indicate only moderate conversion of cash flow into free cash flow relative to net income. Net result: solid, resilient operating cash flow with some variability in free cash flow through the cycle.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 23.35B | 33.29B | 38.54B | 60.63B | 34.90B |
| Gross Profit | 5.47B | 9.65B | 10.31B | 16.80B | 11.12B |
| EBITDA | 5.13B | 7.73B | 7.64B | 13.66B | 7.72B |
| Net Income | 975.90M | 1.45B | 1.55B | 3.71B | 2.19B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 46.32B | 48.81B | 50.66B | 56.86B | 53.80B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.07B | 7.03B | 8.30B | 9.56B | 6.35B |
| Total Debt | 10.86B | 9.41B | 9.13B | 10.28B | 10.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.74B | 24.20B | 25.29B | 30.24B | 31.80B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.34B | 17.87B | 18.24B | 19.15B | 15.51B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.31B | 1.94B | 2.22B | 4.82B | 4.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.01B | 5.46B | 5.71B | 7.76B | 7.02B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.65B | -3.15B | -3.03B | -1.97B | -1.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.72B | -3.13B | -3.77B | -2.66B | -2.98B |
OMV Aktiengesellschaft Technical Analysis
Positive
13.61
Price Trends
15.71
Positive
14.79
Positive
14.07
Positive
Market Momentum
0.39
Positive
55.41
Neutral
51.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OMVKY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.65, below the 50-day MA of 15.71, and below the 200-day MA of 14.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OMVKY.
OMV Aktiengesellschaft Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $115.95B | 3.80 | 27.02% | 14.10% | -11.63% | -15.67% | |
68 Neutral | $21.99B | 63.65 | 6.75% | 9.56% | -23.01% | -3.64% | |
66 Neutral | $104.46B | 12.11 | 3.33% | 7.43% | 1.53% | -35.81% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $79.83B | 19.50 | 5.20% | 5.41% | -3.84% | 15.75% | |
60 Neutral | $115.27B | 1,640.39 | 0.10% | 5.62% | -4.11% | -37.59% |
* Energy Sector Average
OMVKY
OMV Aktiengesellschaft
16.99
5.54
48.46%
BP
BP
43.57
11.34
35.18%
E
Eni SPA
53.41
23.82
80.48%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
19.27
6.52
51.14%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
39.37
14.93
61.06%
TTE
TotalEnergies SE
89.14
29.03
48.29%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.