Outset Medical (OM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $78.51M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 612.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.56
• Revenue Growth: 4.65%
• EPS Growth: 68.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 354
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -0.69
• Shares Outstanding: 18,153,090
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,331,775
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 612,001
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.51
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.51
• 1Y Price Target: $15.75
• Price Target Upside: 1.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -4.31
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $124.08M

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▼(-71.02% Downside)

Outset Medical's stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance and technical analysis. The company shows strong revenue growth but faces challenges in profitability and cash flow. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics highlight ongoing financial losses. The earnings call provided a mixed outlook, with some positive developments but also significant challenges.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates increasing market demand and successful product adoption, which can drive long-term business expansion.

Improved Gross Margin

Improved gross margins suggest better cost management and pricing power, enhancing profitability potential over the long term.

Strong Cash Position

A strong cash position provides financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic uncertainties.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing operational losses can hinder financial sustainability and limit reinvestment in business growth.

Leadership Changes

Leadership changes can disrupt strategic execution and sales momentum, impacting future revenue growth and market positioning.

Deal Closing Challenges

Inconsistent deal closing can affect revenue predictability and strain relationships with key customers, impacting long-term growth.

Outset Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Outset Medical (OM) is a medical technology company focused on transforming the way dialysis is delivered to patients. The company operates within the healthcare sector, specifically targeting renal care, with a core product offering of the Tablo Hemodialysis System. This innovative system simplifies the dialysis process for both patients and healthcare providers, enabling efficient treatment in various settings, including in-home and clinic environments.

How the Company Makes Money

Outset Medical generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Tablo Hemodialysis Systems, which are sold to hospitals, clinics, and other healthcare facilities. In addition to system sales, the company earns revenue from the consumables required for the Tablo system, such as dialysate and other necessary supplies. This creates a recurring revenue stream as facilities need to continuously purchase these consumables for ongoing patient treatments. The company may also engage in partnerships with healthcare providers and payers, enhancing its market reach and potentially securing additional funding or reimbursement arrangements that further support its revenue generation. Overall, Outset Medical's business model hinges on both the initial sale of its dialysis systems and the ongoing sale of related consumables, supplemented by strategic partnerships that bolster its market position.

Outset Medical Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Outset Medical shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow management. Debt reduction is a positive step, but achieving profitability is crucial for future success.

Income Statement

Outset Medical's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced significant revenue growth in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with a 64.1% increase, which is a positive indicator. However, profitability remains a challenge with negative net profit margins and EBIT margins, indicating ongoing operational losses. The gross profit margin has improved over time, but the company still struggles to achieve positive net income.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a significant reduction in debt levels, improving the debt-to-equity ratio to 0.02 in the TTM from a high of 7.53 in the previous year. However, the return on equity remains negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some improvements, with a slight decrease in negative free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates that cash outflows are still significant compared to net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting that the company is managing its cash flow relative to its net income effectively, despite ongoing losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	120.07M	113.69M	130.38M	115.38M	102.60M	49.94M
Gross Profit	45.27M	38.56M	29.00M	17.83M	7.61M	-13.04M
EBITDA	-69.73M	-97.89M	-153.79M	-152.81M	-124.86M	-114.85M
Net Income	-87.80M	-127.98M	-172.80M	-162.96M	-131.94M	-120.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	277.25M	275.80M	313.80M	400.12M	463.46M	403.83M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	178.64M	158.69M	203.32M	287.50M	339.49M	314.87M
Total Debt	3.16M	201.86M	136.19M	103.23M	37.81M	38.60M
Total Liabilities	134.89M	248.98M	190.91M	154.13M	89.38M	75.22M
Stockholders Equity	142.37M	26.82M	122.89M	245.99M	374.08M	328.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-53.91M	-117.22M	-134.81M	-154.05M	-133.37M	-108.12M
Operating Cash Flow	-53.29M	-116.30M	-131.37M	-145.73M	-130.26M	-99.02M
Investing Cash Flow	1.88M	103.94M	83.03M	-66.30M	-142.51M	3.95M
Financing Cash Flow	54.56M	67.87M	43.65M	72.90M	160.15M	385.68M

Outset Medical Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.34, above the 50-day MA of 11.98, and above the 200-day MA of 13.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 18.83 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OM.

Outset Medical Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELMD	76 Outperform	$220.36M	28.42	19.02%	―	16.05%	29.48%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CVRX	49 Neutral	$258.17M	―	-91.88%	―	18.44%	25.42%
INGN	48 Neutral	$192.21M	―	-13.27%	―	4.68%	55.37%
NNOX	47 Neutral	$263.34M	―	-34.75%	―	15.19%	-3.32%
OM	42 Neutral	$78.51M	―	-92.33%	―	4.65%	68.71%
ARAY	40 Underperform	$114.47M	―	-36.07%	―	1.51%	5.07%

Outset Medical Corporate Events

Outset Medical’s Earnings Call: Mixed Signals and Future Prospects

The recent earnings call for Outset Medical, Inc. presented a mixed sentiment, reflecting both optimism and caution. While the company celebrated achievements like increased Tablo console sales, improved gross margins, and a robust cash position, it also faced challenges such as slower-than-expected revenue growth, leadership changes, and uncertainties in deal closing timing. These factors contributed to a cautious outlook for the company’s future.

Outset Medical’s Q3 2025 Earnings and Outlook

Outset Medical, Inc. is a medical technology company that is revolutionizing the dialysis experience with its innovative Tablo Hemodialysis System, which simplifies the process and reduces costs for healthcare facilities. In its latest earnings report for the third quarter of 2025, Outset Medical announced a 3% increase in net revenue to $29.4 million, driven by an 8% rise in Tablo console revenue. The company also reported a significant improvement in gross margin, which expanded to 39.4% from 34.3% in the previous year, and a notable reduction in operating expenses by nearly 20% compared to the same period last year. Despite these positive developments, Outset Medical revised its 2025 revenue guidance downward to a range of $115 million to $120 million, citing delays in closing several large opportunities that are now expected to materialize in the fourth quarter and early 2026. The company remains optimistic about its future prospects, with management highlighting the growing hospital demand for its technology and the ongoing commercial transformation efforts. Outset Medical continues to focus on enhancing its operational efficiency and profitability, aiming to use less than $50 million in cash for the year, a significant reduction from the previous year’s expenditure.