Outset Medical (OM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $344.11M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 438.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.87
• Revenue Growth: -7.84%
• EPS Growth: 42.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 354
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 37
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -3.24
• Shares Outstanding: 17,722,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 287,498
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 438,224
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.79
• 1Y Price Target: $24.50
• Price Target Upside: 29.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.50 ▼(-7.65%Downside)

Outset Medical's stock score is primarily influenced by its struggling financial performance and unattractive valuation metrics. Despite some positive developments from recent earnings calls and corporate events, the company's ongoing profitability and cash flow issues weigh heavily on its overall evaluation.

Positive Factors

Management

Renee Gaeta, a former CFO of Shockwave Medical, joins Outset Medical as Chief Financial Officer, bringing strong credentials to the team.

Product Expansion

The Tablo installed base continued to expand during the quarter and reached nearly 6,000 consoles.

Revenue

First-quarter revenue of $29.8M exceeded expectations and showed growth both year over year and sequentially.

Negative Factors

Manufacturing Costs

Stranded manufacturing overhead costs were a 230-bp headwind to non-GAAP gross margin in the quarter.

Market Valuation

The new price target reflects a broader contraction in market valuations for small-cap stocks.

Price Target

The price target for Outset Medical, Inc. has been significantly reduced from $45 to $15.

Outset Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Outset Medical, Inc., a medical technology company, develops a hemodialysis system for dialysis. It provides the Tablo Hemodialysis System, which comprises a compact console with integrated water purification, on-demand dialysate production, and software and connectivity capabilities for dialysis care in acute and home settings. The company was formerly known as Home Dialysis Plus, Ltd. and changed its name to Outset Medical, Inc. in January 2015. Outset Medical, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Outset Medical generates revenue primarily through the sale and leasing of its Tablo Hemodialysis System, along with the associated consumables and service contracts. The company also earns income from partnerships with healthcare providers and institutions that utilize their systems. Key revenue streams include the initial sale or lease of the Tablo units, ongoing sales of single-use cartridges and other supplies necessary for the dialysis process, and maintenance service agreements. The company's growth is supported by its focus on increasing adoption of its systems in both acute and chronic care settings, as well as expanding its presence in the home dialysis market.

Outset Medical Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Outset Medical faces financial challenges with declining revenues and persistent operational inefficiencies. Despite slight improvements in gross profit and debt reduction, negative net income and cash flow remain major concerns.

Income Statement

Outset Medical has faced declining revenues and profitability challenges, with the TTM showing a revenue of $115.27 million, slightly up from the previous year, but still below its 2023 peak. The company has not been able to achieve positive net income, with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicating ongoing operational inefficiencies. Despite a modest gross profit margin improvement, significant losses and lack of revenue growth present considerable financial hurdles.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet indicates moderate financial strength, with a debt-to-equity ratio reflecting a substantial reduction in leverage over the past year, thanks to increased stockholders' equity. However, the equity ratio remains under pressure due to ongoing losses. Good liquidity is evidenced by a healthy level of cash and short-term investments, suggesting an ability to meet short-term obligations.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is weak, as reflected in the negative free cash flow and operating cash flow. Although there was an improvement in free cash flow from the previous year, the company continues to burn cash significantly. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates inefficiencies in converting operational performance into cash, posing a risk to financial sustainability.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	113.69M	130.38M	115.38M	102.60M	49.94M
Gross Profit	38.56M	29.00M	17.83M	7.61M	-13.04M
EBITDA	-97.89M	-153.79M	-152.81M	-124.86M	-114.85M
Net Income	-127.98M	-172.80M	-162.96M	-131.94M	-120.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	275.80M	313.80M	400.12M	463.46M	403.83M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	158.69M	203.32M	287.50M	339.49M	314.87M
Total Debt	201.86M	136.19M	103.23M	37.81M	38.60M
Total Liabilities	248.98M	190.91M	154.13M	89.38M	75.22M
Stockholders Equity	26.82M	122.89M	245.99M	374.08M	328.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-117.22M	-134.81M	-154.05M	-133.37M	-108.12M
Operating Cash Flow	-116.30M	-131.37M	-145.73M	-130.26M	-99.02M
Investing Cash Flow	103.94M	83.03M	-66.30M	-142.51M	3.95M
Financing Cash Flow	67.87M	43.65M	72.90M	160.15M	385.68M

Outset Medical Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.95
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.42, below the 50-day MA of 19.16, and above the 200-day MA of 13.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OM.

Outset Medical Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELMD	70 Outperform	$156.74M	23.42	16.56%	―	14.85%	64.96%
CVRX	59 Neutral	$210.41M	―	-76.01%	―	25.62%	11.86%
INGN	54 Neutral	$170.47M	―	-14.10%	―	5.73%	72.50%
Sector *	50 Neutral	AU$2.61B	3.12	-57.47%	2.45%	36.73%	13.67%
TLSI	50 Neutral	$170.89M	―	271.41%	―	85.03%	53.73%
OM	49 Neutral	$344.11M	―	-86.53%	―	-7.84%	42.34%
LUNG	47 Neutral	$130.43M	―	-60.68%	―	19.84%	5.77%

Outset Medical Corporate Events

Outset Medical Appoints Renee Gaeta as CFO

On June 3, 2025, Outset Medical announced the appointment of Renee Gaeta as Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Nabeel Ahmed. Gaeta brings extensive financial leadership experience from her previous roles at various medical technology companies. Her appointment is expected to support Outset’s growth and profitability goals. The company also reiterated its 2025 financial guidance, projecting revenues between $115 million and $125 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin in the high-30% range. Additionally, Outset held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 2, 2025, where key proposals, including amendments to equity and stock purchase plans, were approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (OM) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Outset Medical stock, see the OM Stock Forecast page.

Outset Medical Appoints Kevin O’Boyle to Board

On May 14, 2025, Outset Medical announced the resignation of Dale E. Jones from its Board of Directors and the appointment of Kevin O’Boyle as a new board member and Chair of the Audit Committee. Mr. O’Boyle, an experienced healthcare executive with a background in capital equipment and recurring revenue business models, is expected to guide Outset through its next growth phase. His appointment follows his extensive experience on the boards of several medical device companies, enhancing Outset’s strategic positioning in the medical technology industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (OM) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Outset Medical stock, see the OM Stock Forecast page.