Outset Medical (OM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $63.47M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.80
• Revenue Growth: 4.65%
• EPS Growth: 68.71%
• Country: US
• Employees: 354
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -0.84
• Shares Outstanding: 18,311,626
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 319,880
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,246,039
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.47
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.20
• 1Y Price Target: $10.50
• Price Target Upside: 197.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -2.8
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $126.63M

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(13.31% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

The score is held back primarily by still-weak financials (ongoing losses and negative free cash flow despite balance-sheet improvement) and bearish technical momentum. Offsetting these is a constructive earnings outlook with improving margins, disciplined spending, and expectations for lower cash use supported by a strong cash position.

Positive Factors

FDA-cleared next-gen Tablo (cyber-hardened)

FDA clearance for a cyber‑hardened next‑generation Tablo is a structural competitive advantage: it strengthens product differentiation, eases procurement for large health systems with strict security requirements, and enables upgrades to the installed base, supporting durable adoption across acute and home settings.

Sustained gross-margin expansion

Material gross‑margin improvement reflects higher product economics and better manufacturing absorption. Sustained mid‑40s target margins improve unit economics for recurring consumables and services, increasing profitability leverage as revenue scales and supporting long‑term cash generation potential.

Improved cash position and lower cash burn

A materially stronger cash balance and sharply reduced operating cash use extend runway and reduce near‑term financing risk. With management guiding to lower 2026 cash use, the company has time to execute commercialization, launch next‑gen Tablo, and pursue consumable attach rates before needing new capital.

Negative Factors

Persistent operating losses and negative FCF

Ongoing net losses and negative free cash flow mean the business is not yet self‑funding. Continued reliance on cash reserves or external capital elevates dilution and execution risk if revenue or margin trajectories stall before achieving sustainable positive cash generation.

Revenue volatility and recent contractions

Sharp revenue swings reduce predictability of consumable revenue and margin leverage. Volatility strains scaling economics, complicates manufacturing planning and working capital, and increases the risk that fixed cost absorption and margin improvements fail to materialize consistently over the medium term.

Long, variable enterprise sales cycles

Extended and unpredictable enterprise procurement timelines create timing risk for console placements and consumable revenue. This structural sales-cycle length weakens revenue visibility, magnifies quarter‑to‑quarter volatility, and delays realization of installed‑base economics critical for steady recurring cash flows.

Outset Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Outset Medical, Inc., a medical technology company, develops a hemodialysis system for dialysis. It provides the Tablo Hemodialysis System, which comprises a compact console with integrated water purification, on-demand dialysate production, and software and connectivity capabilities for dialysis care in acute and home settings. The company was formerly known as Home Dialysis Plus, Ltd. and changed its name to Outset Medical, Inc. in January 2015. Outset Medical, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Outset Medical generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Tablo Hemodialysis Systems, which are sold to hospitals, clinics, and other healthcare facilities. In addition to system sales, the company earns revenue from the consumables required for the Tablo system, such as dialysate and other necessary supplies. This creates a recurring revenue stream as facilities need to continuously purchase these consumables for ongoing patient treatments. The company may also engage in partnerships with healthcare providers and payers, enhancing its market reach and potentially securing additional funding or reimbursement arrangements that further support its revenue generation. Overall, Outset Medical's business model hinges on both the initial sale of its dialysis systems and the ongoing sale of related consumables, supplemented by strategic partnerships that bolster its market position.

Outset Medical Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet health improved materially (lower leverage and stronger equity), and margins/losses trended better year over year. However, the company remains deeply unprofitable with negative free cash flow and elevated execution risk tied to sharp revenue volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile and recently contracted sharply (down ~49% in 2025 after a decline in 2024), which pressures scale. Profitability remains weak, but there is clear improvement versus prior years: gross margin improved to ~39% in 2025 from ~34% in 2024 (and far better than earlier years), and operating and net losses narrowed meaningfully (net margin improved to about -68% from roughly -113% in 2024). Overall, the trajectory is improving on margins and losses, but the business is still materially unprofitable and the 2025 revenue drop is a key concern.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved substantially year-over-year, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.82 in 2025 from ~7.53 in 2024, alongside a large rebound in equity. Total debt also fell meaningfully in 2025 versus 2024, supporting a healthier capital structure. The main weakness is ongoing heavy losses, reflected in negative returns on equity, which can erode balance-sheet strength over time if not stabilized.

Cash Flow

Cash burn remains significant, with operating cash flow and free cash flow still negative in 2025 (about -$46M), though materially better than 2024 (about -$116M operating cash flow). Free cash flow deteriorated versus 2024, and cash generation is not yet self-funding given persistent losses. The positive is the improved year-over-year operating cash burn profile, but the company still relies on external funding or existing liquidity to sustain operations.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	119.48M	113.69M	130.38M	115.38M	102.60M
Gross Profit	46.75M	38.56M	29.00M	17.83M	7.61M
EBITDA	-62.37M	-97.89M	-153.79M	-152.81M	-124.86M
Net Income	-81.65M	-127.98M	-172.80M	-162.96M	-131.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	264.50M	275.80M	313.80M	400.12M	463.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	168.95M	158.69M	203.32M	287.50M	339.49M
Total Debt	104.52M	201.86M	136.19M	103.23M	37.81M
Total Liabilities	137.54M	248.98M	190.91M	154.13M	89.38M
Stockholders Equity	126.95M	26.82M	122.89M	245.99M	374.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-47.13M	-117.22M	-134.81M	-154.05M	-133.37M
Operating Cash Flow	-46.33M	-116.30M	-131.37M	-145.73M	-130.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-97.68M	103.94M	83.03M	-66.30M	-142.51M
Financing Cash Flow	55.50M	67.87M	43.65M	72.90M	160.15M

Outset Medical Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.48, below the 50-day MA of 4.36, and below the 200-day MA of 12.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OM.

Outset Medical Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELMD	76 Outperform	$205.31M	23.48	20.20%	―	16.05%	29.48%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
OM	51 Neutral	$63.47M	-0.52	-106.20%	―	4.65%	68.71%
INGN	50 Neutral	$158.28M	-5.81	-13.27%	―	4.68%	55.37%
NNOX	47 Neutral	$149.20M	-2.70	-34.75%	―	15.19%	-3.32%
CVRX	42 Neutral	$127.61M	-2.58	-91.88%	―	18.44%	25.42%
ARAY	40 Underperform	$63.49M	-1.85	-70.32%	―	1.51%	5.07%

Outset Medical Corporate Events

Outset Medical Wins FDA Clearance for Next-Gen Tablo System

On January 27, 2026, Outset Medical announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted 510(k) clearance for its next-generation Tablo hemodialysis platform, which becomes the first dialysis system to meet the FDA’s most rigorous, recently updated medical device cybersecurity standards. The upgraded Tablo system features enterprise-grade cybersecurity across hardware, software and cloud, modernized operating system and hardware to boost performance and extend maintenance intervals, and a more durable exterior suited to acute hospital environments, with shipments planned to begin in the second quarter of 2026 and existing Tablo customers eligible to upgrade, strengthening the company’s technology lead and value proposition for hospitals, health systems and home dialysis providers.

The most recent analyst rating on (OM) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Outset Medical stock, see the OM Stock Forecast page.

Outset Medical Previews 2025 Results and Adds Director

On January 12, 2026, Outset Medical reported preliminary, unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with revenue of approximately $28.9 million in the quarter and about $119.5 million for the year, representing 5% growth over 2024. The company highlighted operational traction, noting more than 1,000 sites of care had insourced dialysis with Outset by the end of 2025, delivering around 1 million treatments annually on its Tablo system, and reported a year-end cash balance of $173 million with net cash used in operations reduced to under $50 million from $116 million in 2024, signaling improved cash efficiency. Outset also announced that experienced medtech executive Karen N. Prange joined its board of directors and Compensation Committee, effective January 9, 2026, replacing outgoing director Andrea Saia, whose departure was not due to any disagreement, a move that bolsters the board’s commercial and acute-care expertise as the company pursues further growth in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (OM) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Outset Medical stock, see the OM Stock Forecast page.