Outset Medical (OM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $366.95M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 423.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.81
• Revenue Growth: -7.84%
• EPS Growth: 42.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 354
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Medical - Devices
• EPS (TTM): -3.24
• Shares Outstanding: 17,722,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 773,092
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 423,811
• PEG Ratio: -0.45
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.07
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.47
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.77
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 30.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.92
• 1Y Price Target: $26.50
• Price Target Upside: 28.77% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.50 ▼(-0.39%Downside)

Outset Medical's stock score is influenced by financial challenges, including negative cash flow and profitability issues. Positive technical trends and strong earnings call sentiment provide some offsetting factors, while recent corporate changes add a promising outlook.

Positive Factors

Commercial Strategy

OM has been working through a commercial transformation that should begin to yield dividends, with positive early indications observed in the latter half of 2024.

Financial Performance

First-quarter revenue of $29.8M comfortably beat the $27.8M Street target and was up both year over year and sequentially.

Management Changes

Outset Medical announced that Renee Gaeta will be replacing Nabeel Ahmed as Chief Financial Officer, bringing her experience from Shockwave Medical to the team.

Negative Factors

Manufacturing Costs

Stranded manufacturing overhead costs were a 230-basis point headwind to non-GAAP gross margin in the quarter.

Market Conditions

The new price target uses a lower EV-to-sales multiple of 2.1, mirroring a broader contraction in market valuations for small-cap stocks.

Stock Valuation

The price target for Outset Medical, Inc. has been significantly reduced from $45 to $15, reflecting changes in share count and market valuations.

Outset Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Outset Medical (OM) is a medical technology company focused on transforming dialysis care. The company is known for its innovative Tablo Hemodialysis System, designed to simplify dialysis treatments and make them more accessible in various healthcare settings, including hospitals, clinics, and at home. Outset Medical aims to improve patient outcomes and reduce the cost and complexity associated with traditional dialysis methods.

How the Company Makes Money

Outset Medical generates revenue primarily through the sale and leasing of its Tablo Hemodialysis System, along with the associated consumables and service contracts. The company also earns income from partnerships with healthcare providers and institutions that utilize their systems. Key revenue streams include the initial sale or lease of the Tablo units, ongoing sales of single-use cartridges and other supplies necessary for the dialysis process, and maintenance service agreements. The company's growth is supported by its focus on increasing adoption of its systems in both acute and chronic care settings, as well as expanding its presence in the home dialysis market.

Outset Medical Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Outset Medical faces significant financial challenges with persistent losses and cash flow issues. Despite a slight improvement in gross profit and reduced leverage, negative net income and ongoing cash burn highlight the need for substantial operational improvements.

Income Statement

Outset Medical has faced declining revenues and profitability challenges, with the TTM showing a revenue of $115.27 million, slightly up from the previous year, but still below its 2023 peak. The company has not been able to achieve positive net income, with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicating ongoing operational inefficiencies. Despite a modest gross profit margin improvement, significant losses and lack of revenue growth present considerable financial hurdles.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet indicates moderate financial strength, with a debt-to-equity ratio reflecting a substantial reduction in leverage over the past year, thanks to increased stockholders' equity. However, the equity ratio remains under pressure due to ongoing losses. Good liquidity is evidenced by a healthy level of cash and short-term investments, suggesting an ability to meet short-term obligations.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is weak, as reflected in the negative free cash flow and operating cash flow. Although there was an improvement in free cash flow from the previous year, the company continues to burn cash significantly. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates inefficiencies in converting operational performance into cash, posing a risk to financial sustainability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	115.27M	113.69M	130.38M	115.38M	102.60M	49.94M
Gross Profit	41.41M	38.56M	29.00M	17.83M	7.61M	-13.04M
EBITDA	-87.74M	-97.89M	-153.79M	-152.81M	-124.86M	-114.85M
Net Income	-113.81M	-127.98M	-172.80M	-162.96M	-131.94M	-120.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	313.80M	275.80M	313.80M	400.12M	463.46M	403.83M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	203.32M	158.69M	203.32M	287.50M	339.49M	314.87M
Total Debt	136.19M	201.86M	136.19M	103.23M	37.81M	38.60M
Total Liabilities	190.91M	248.98M	190.91M	154.13M	89.38M	75.22M
Stockholders Equity	122.89M	26.82M	122.89M	245.99M	374.08M	328.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-96.73M	-117.22M	-134.81M	-154.05M	-133.37M	-108.12M
Operating Cash Flow	-96.05M	-116.30M	-131.37M	-145.73M	-130.26M	-99.02M
Investing Cash Flow	84.89M	103.94M	83.03M	-66.30M	-142.51M	3.95M
Financing Cash Flow	54.92M	67.87M	43.65M	72.90M	160.15M	385.68M

Outset Medical Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.87, above the 50-day MA of 17.22, and above the 200-day MA of 13.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OM.

Outset Medical Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELMD	77 Outperform	$182.82M	25.46	16.56%	―	14.85%	64.96%
OM	55 Neutral	$366.95M	―	-86.53%	―	-7.84%	42.34%
INGN	55 Neutral	$190.90M	―	-14.10%	―	5.73%	72.50%
CVRX	53 Neutral	$157.48M	―	-76.01%	―	25.62%	11.86%
TLSI	50 Neutral	$195.58M	―	271.41%	―	85.03%	53.73%
LUNG	46 Neutral	$108.29M	―	-60.68%	―	19.84%	5.77%
Sector *	46 Neutral	C$192.85M	-4.28	-8.56%	2.83%	13.52%	-1.74%

Outset Medical Corporate Events

Outset Medical Appoints Renee Gaeta as CFO

On June 3, 2025, Outset Medical announced the appointment of Renee Gaeta as Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Nabeel Ahmed. Gaeta brings extensive financial leadership experience from her previous roles at various medical technology companies. Her appointment is expected to support Outset’s growth and profitability goals. The company also reiterated its 2025 financial guidance, projecting revenues between $115 million and $125 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin in the high-30% range. Additionally, Outset held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 2, 2025, where key proposals, including amendments to equity and stock purchase plans, were approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (OM) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Outset Medical stock, see the OM Stock Forecast page.

Outset Medical Appoints Kevin O’Boyle to Board

On May 14, 2025, Outset Medical announced the resignation of Dale E. Jones from its Board of Directors and the appointment of Kevin O’Boyle as a new board member and Chair of the Audit Committee. Mr. O’Boyle, an experienced healthcare executive with a background in capital equipment and recurring revenue business models, is expected to guide Outset through its next growth phase. His appointment follows his extensive experience on the boards of several medical device companies, enhancing Outset’s strategic positioning in the medical technology industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (OM) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Outset Medical stock, see the OM Stock Forecast page.