Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $43.91B
• Dividend Yield: 0.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: -5.90%
• EPS Growth: -13.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,817
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): 1.09
• Shares Outstanding: 208,425,610
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,976,419
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,401,097
• PEG Ratio: -2.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.99
• P/FCF Ratio: 34.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 22.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.44
• 1Y Price Target: $201.16
• Price Target Upside: -4.52% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 21
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.99
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.56B

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $248.00 ▲(17.71% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

Score is driven primarily by exceptional balance-sheet strength and strong cash generation/profitability through the cycle. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend. Offsetting factors are premium valuation (high P/E with low yield) and earnings-call commentary pointing to continued near-term volume/revenue weakness and higher operating ratio/cost pressures.

Positive Factors

Balance-sheet strength

Minimal leverage and a large, stable equity base provide durable financial flexibility through freight cycles. This strength supports continued capital investment, aggressive share repurchases/dividends when appropriate, and insulation from credit stress that preserves operational resilience over months.

Cash generation and free cash flow

Sustained high operating and free cash flow supports repeatable capital allocation: funding capex, paying dividends, and buying back stock without relying on external financing. Strong cash conversion enhances ability to invest in network and weather cyclical revenue weakness over the next several months.

Network capacity and fleet positioning

Meaningful spare capacity and a younger fleet provide structural advantages: ability to pick up incremental volumes with limited incremental capex, lower maintenance and reliability costs, and competitive service that helps protect pricing and market share as demand recovers over a 2–6 month horizon.

Negative Factors

Persistent volume and revenue weakness

Material declines in tons and shipments reduce fixed-cost absorption across terminals and linehaul, pressuring margins and operating leverage. If volumes remain depressed for several months, earnings and network efficiency can deteriorate despite pricing discipline, delaying recovery benefits.

Rising operating ratio and overhead pressure

Higher operating ratio and step-up in overhead reflect deleveraging from lower volumes plus elevated depreciation from fleet/network investment. These structural cost pressures, combined with ongoing inflation, can compress margins even as revenue stabilizes, limiting near-term margin recovery.

Workforce/volume decoupling

A mismatch between workforce reductions and larger shipment declines suggests operational inflexibility or lagging cost adjustments. Rehiring or overtime to meet demand spikes can raise costs, and persistent decoupling may signal inefficiencies that harm service or margins over a multi-month period.

Old Dominion Freight Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America. It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including expedited transportation. The company also offers various value-added services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting. As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers; 3 fleet maintenance centers; and 251 service centers. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

Old Dominion Freight Line generates revenue primarily through its LTL transportation services, which involve consolidating shipments from multiple customers into a single truckload for more efficient delivery. The company charges customers based on weight, distance, and type of service required, leading to varied pricing structures. Key revenue streams include base freight charges, fuel surcharges, and additional services such as expedited shipping and logistics solutions. ODFL also benefits from long-term customer relationships and contracts, which provide a stable income base. Strategic investments in technology and an extensive network of terminals and service centers further enhance operational efficiency, contributing to profitability.

Old Dominion Freight Financial Statement Overview

Summary

High-quality financial profile with best-in-class profitability for the sector, exceptional balance sheet strength (minimal leverage; strong equity base), and robust operating/free cash flow. Main offset is cyclical pressure: revenue and earnings have trended down from 2022–2024 highs with modest margin compression.

Income Statement

Profitability is very strong for a trucking carrier, with 2025 annual net margin at ~18.6% and EBIT margin at ~24.8%, though both are down from 2022–2024 levels. Revenue has softened recently (2025 down vs. 2024; 2023–2024 also slightly down), indicating a weaker freight environment and pressuring earnings (net income fell from ~$1.19B in 2024 to ~$1.02B in 2025). Despite the downcycle, margins remain structurally high, suggesting solid pricing discipline and cost control.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet strength is exceptional: leverage is minimal with debt-to-equity around ~0.9% in 2025 (and low single-digits across all years shown). Equity is large and stable (~$4.31B in 2025), supporting financial flexibility through industry cycles. Returns on equity remain strong (about ~23.7% in 2025), albeit below the peak levels seen in 2022–2023, reflecting the recent earnings normalization.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is robust: operating cash flow was ~$1.37B in 2025 and free cash flow ~$955M, with free cash flow improving year over year. Operating cash flow comfortably covers earnings (coverage ~2.83x in 2025), highlighting high cash conversion quality. The main watch item is that free cash flow is meaningfully below net income in 2025 (~70% of net income), implying higher reinvestment/capex needs or working-capital effects versus some prior years.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.50B	5.81B	5.87B	6.26B	5.26B
Gross Profit	1.77B	2.02B	2.07B	2.26B	1.78B
EBITDA	1.73B	1.90B	1.97B	2.12B	1.65B
Net Income	1.02B	1.19B	1.24B	1.38B	1.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.47B	5.49B	5.51B	4.84B	4.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	120.09M	108.68M	433.80M	235.67M	717.00M
Total Debt	39.99M	168.29M	79.98M	99.96M	99.95M
Total Liabilities	1.16B	1.25B	1.25B	1.19B	1.14B
Stockholders Equity	4.31B	4.24B	4.26B	3.65B	3.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	955.10M	887.97M	811.83M	916.43M	662.53M
Operating Cash Flow	1.37B	1.66B	1.57B	1.69B	1.21B
Investing Cash Flow	-366.41M	-751.19M	-659.82M	-547.47M	-455.29M
Financing Cash Flow	-992.31M	-1.23B	-661.83M	-1.42B	-696.18M

Old Dominion Freight Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 210.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ODFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 210.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 198.67, above the 50-day MA of 182.11, and above the 200-day MA of 157.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ODFL.

Old Dominion Freight Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ODFL	79 Outperform	$43.91B	32.15	23.93%	0.71%	-5.90%	-13.16%
SAIA	68 Neutral	$10.58B	34.23	10.43%	―	1.96%	-24.55%
SNDR	66 Neutral	$4.79B	44.87	3.45%	1.40%	5.46%	2.31%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
KNX	60 Neutral	$9.91B	128.70	0.93%	1.34%	>-0.01%	279.47%
ARCB	56 Neutral	$2.22B	28.19	4.61%	0.62%	-5.34%	-48.16%
WERN	49 Neutral	$1.99B	-16.16	1.78%	1.84%	-3.42%	-43.86%

Old Dominion Freight Corporate Events

Old Dominion Freight Posts Lower February LTL Revenue, Optimistic Outlook

On March 3, 2026, Old Dominion Freight Line reported that its February 2026 LTL revenue per day fell 3.3% from a year earlier, driven by a 6.8% drop in LTL tons per day as shipments per day declined 7.0%, partly offset by slightly heavier average shipment weight. For the quarter-to-date period, however, LTL revenue per hundredweight and revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel surcharges rose 3.5% and 4.1%, respectively, underscoring continued success in pricing and yield management despite softer volumes.

Chief executive Marty Freeman said the company remained cautiously optimistic about the domestic economy and highlighted that its “best-in-class” service and disciplined approach to pricing are supporting improvements in revenue per hundredweight. He added that Old Dominion has sufficient capacity to handle incremental freight as demand strengthens, positioning the carrier to generate profitable revenue growth and enhance shareholder value over the long term even against a backdrop of current volume pressure.

The most recent analyst rating on (ODFL) stock is a Hold with a $210.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old Dominion Freight stock, see the ODFL Stock Forecast page.

Old Dominion Freight Board Member Resigns, Board Size Reduced

On December 3, 2025, Debra S. King resigned from the Board of Directors of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., citing time commitments related to other professional obligations. Following her resignation, the Board reduced its size to eleven directors on December 8, 2025, indicating a streamlined governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (ODFL) stock is a Buy with a $190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old Dominion Freight stock, see the ODFL Stock Forecast page.