Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.43B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.57
• Revenue Growth: -9.21%
• EPS Growth: -8.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 274
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 213,047,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,800,003
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,937,006
• PEG Ratio: -0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 21.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 33.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 37.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -8.06
• 1Y Price Target: $23.50
• Price Target Upside: 52.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.45
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $54.92M

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.50 ▲(7.07% Upside)

Ocular Therapeutix's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial challenges, including declining revenues and persistent losses. However, the company's strategic initiatives, such as the NDA submission and stock offering, provide a positive outlook. The technical analysis suggests a bullish trend, but caution is advised due to overbought conditions. The earnings call and corporate events further support a moderate positive sentiment.

Positive Factors

Strategic NDA Submission

Accelerating the NDA submission for AXPAXLI could enhance market entry speed, potentially capturing market share in wet AMD treatment sooner.

Strong Cash Position

A robust cash position provides financial stability, enabling sustained R&D investment and strategic initiatives without immediate liquidity concerns.

Innovative Clinical Trials

The HELIOS program's broad approach could position Ocular as a leader in diabetic retinopathy treatment, expanding its market reach and product offerings.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Declining revenues indicate potential challenges in product sales and market penetration, which could hinder long-term financial performance.

Operational Losses

Persistent operational losses can strain resources, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and affecting profitability.

Pricing Pressure

Pricing pressure in the wet AMD market could compress margins and reduce profitability, challenging Ocular's competitive positioning.

Ocular Therapeutix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing innovative therapies for ocular diseases and conditions. The company specializes in the development of sustained-release drug formulations and has a proprietary hydrogel technology that allows for the targeted delivery of therapeutics to the eye. Ocular Therapeutix's core products include Dextenza, an injectable treatment for post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain, and other product candidates aimed at addressing various eye-related disorders.

How the Company Makes Money

Ocular Therapeutix generates revenue primarily through the sale of its commercialized products, with Dextenza being the main contributor to its earnings. The company also engages in various partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies to develop and commercialize additional therapies, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on the sales of these products. Additionally, the company may receive funding through grants or research agreements to support the development of its pipeline products, further contributing to its overall revenue stream.

Ocular Therapeutix Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ocular Therapeutix faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and persistent losses impacting profitability. Despite a strong gross profit margin, high operational losses and negative cash flows highlight ongoing financial instability. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but negative returns on equity suggest inefficiencies in generating shareholder value.

Income Statement

Ocular Therapeutix shows a declining revenue trend with a negative revenue growth rate of -1.56% in the TTM period. The company has a high gross profit margin of 88.85%, indicating efficient production, but suffers from significant net losses, reflected in a net profit margin of -448.09%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.30, suggesting moderate leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -87.19%, indicating that the company is not generating profit from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 62.85%, showing a reasonable proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Ocular Therapeutix has a positive free cash flow growth rate of 11.19% in the TTM period, but the operating cash flow is negative, leading to an operating cash flow to net income ratio of -3.86. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, indicating that free cash flow covers net income, albeit both are negative.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	55.78M	63.72M	58.44M	51.49M	43.52M	17.40M
Gross Profit	49.57M	58.10M	53.16M	46.95M	39.12M	15.32M
EBITDA	-233.53M	-176.14M	-66.42M	-61.91M	2.54M	-146.09M
Net Income	-249.67M	-193.51M	-80.74M	-71.04M	-6.55M	-155.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	410.88M	457.94M	252.06M	149.29M	204.89M	261.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	344.77M	392.10M	195.81M	102.30M	164.16M	228.06M
Total Debt	77.01M	75.78M	83.39M	64.28M	58.98M	58.44M
Total Liabilities	152.65M	142.59M	160.93M	113.91M	116.89M	185.77M
Stockholders Equity	258.23M	315.34M	91.13M	35.38M	88.00M	76.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-199.44M	-135.97M	-76.32M	-63.32M	-66.74M	-54.40M
Operating Cash Flow	-190.06M	-134.68M	-70.23M	-59.60M	-65.55M	-53.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-9.24M	-1.29M	-6.09M	-3.71M	-1.19M	-841.00K
Financing Cash Flow	116.86M	332.11M	169.83M	1.45M	2.85M	228.01M

Ocular Therapeutix Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.41
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OCUL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.46, above the 50-day MA of 11.85, and above the 200-day MA of 10.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.63 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.35 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OCUL.

Ocular Therapeutix Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TARS	60 Neutral	$3.49B	―	-28.35%	―	182.44%	47.21%
SPRY	57 Neutral	$988.49M	―	-45.92%	―	5459.66%	-59.70%
OCUL	55 Neutral	$3.43B	―	-81.83%	―	-9.21%	-8.84%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
BEAM	44 Neutral	$2.75B	―	-47.19%	―	-84.07%	-157.71%
BLTE	43 Neutral	$3.62B	-71.67	-32.30%	―	―	-73.27%
ETNB	42 Neutral	―	―	-86.86%	―	―	-82.75%

Ocular Therapeutix Corporate Events

Ocular Therapeutix Prepares NDA Submission for Wet AMD Drug

Ocular Therapeutix plans to submit a new drug application for its product candidate AXPAXLI (OTX-TKI) for wet AMD treatment based on year 1 data from its SOL-1 Phase 3 clinical trial, following recent FDA guidance. The company anticipates reporting top-line data from this trial in the first quarter of 2026, potentially accelerating its regulatory pathway and impacting its market positioning.

Ocular Therapeutix Announces $475M Stock Offering

On September 30, 2025, Ocular Therapeutix announced the pricing of an underwritten offering of 37,909,018 shares of its common stock at $12.53 per share, aiming to raise approximately $475 million. The net proceeds are expected to fund clinical trials, manufacturing scale-up, and pre-commercialization activities for AXPAXLI, as well as general corporate purposes. The offering is anticipated to close on October 1, 2025, and is expected to extend the company’s cash runway into 2028, supporting its strategic initiatives and operational growth.

Ocular Therapeutix Updates on AXPAXLI Clinical Trials

On September 30, 2025, Ocular Therapeutix announced updates on its clinical trials for AXPAXLI, including ongoing Phase 3 trials for wet AMD and plans for trials in NPDR. The SOL-1 and SOL-R trials for wet AMD are progressing, with SOL-1 expected to yield results in early 2026 and SOL-R in 2027, potentially leading to a new drug application. Additionally, the company plans to initiate the SOL-X extension trial and HELIOS-2 and HELIOS-3 trials for NPDR, aiming to expand its market presence. A notice of allowance for a patent related to AXPAXLI was also received, potentially strengthening the company’s intellectual property portfolio.