Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.53B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.99
• Revenue Growth: -0.33%
• EPS Growth: -3.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 274
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 39
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 159,299,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,710,051
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,563,370
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.27
• 1Y Price Target: $17.60
• Price Target Upside: 82.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.50 ▼(-1.25%Downside)

Ocular Therapeutix's stock score reflects a combination of strong technical indicators and revenue growth, tempered by substantial operational losses and a negative P/E ratio. The bullish trend provides a positive short-term outlook, while the company needs to address profitability issues for long-term stability.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trials

The incorporation of re-dosing in SOL-1 allows the company to reduce the size of SOL-R while ensuring that it remains well powered for success, thus potentially accelerating the path to NDA submission.

Market Opportunity

There is a large market opportunity and unmet need for an extended wAMD treatment, which benefits both Axpaxli and Duravyu.

Regulatory Approval

FDA has agreed that SOL-1 and SOL-R together could constitute two complementary and adequate trials to support a potential New Drug Application (NDA) for AXPAXLI in wet AMD.

Negative Factors

Enrollment Risks

There is a risk that the current enrollment does not result in the expected number of patients for randomization.

Financial Performance

Total revenue was $10.7M, representing 27% YoY decline and missing our projection of $16.6M.

Ocular Therapeutix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (OCUL) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development, manufacture, and commercialization of innovative therapies for eye diseases and conditions. Based in Bedford, Massachusetts, the company specializes in creating sustained-release therapies using its proprietary hydrogel platform technology to address unmet needs in ophthalmology. Ocular Therapeutix's core products include DEXTENZA for the treatment of ocular pain and inflammation following ophthalmic surgery, as well as a pipeline of other therapeutic candidates targeting various ocular conditions.

How the Company Makes Money

Ocular Therapeutix generates revenue primarily through the sale of its approved product, DEXTENZA, to healthcare providers and facilities. The company also engages in collaborative partnerships and licensing agreements to advance its pipeline products, which can involve upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties. Additionally, Ocular Therapeutix may receive funding through research grants and government contracts to support its development activities. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include the successful commercialization of its products, the expansion of its market presence, and the advancement of its research and development pipeline.

Ocular Therapeutix Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ocular Therapeutix has shown strong revenue growth and a solid cash position, but faces challenges with high operational losses and negative cash flows. The company needs to improve operational efficiency and achieve profitability to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Ocular Therapeutix has shown a steady increase in revenue over the years, with a notable TTM revenue of approximately $59.58 million from $17.40 million in 2020. However, the company consistently reports negative net income, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. The gross profit margin is healthy, but both the EBIT and EBITDA margins are significantly negative, reflecting substantial operational losses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a strong cash position, with cash and equivalents exceeding total debt, resulting in negative net debt. Equity has grown significantly to $265.93 million in the TTM, and the company maintains a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio. However, the return on equity remains negative due to ongoing losses, highlighting profitability concerns despite a solid asset base.

Cash Flow

Ocular Therapeutix's cash flow statement shows consistent negative operating cash flow, with significant free cash flow deficits. Although the company has successfully raised financing in the past, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains unfavorable, indicating reliance on external funding rather than operational efficiency to sustain cash flows.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	59.58M	63.72M	58.44M	51.49M	43.52M	17.40M
Gross Profit	54.02M	58.10M	53.16M	46.95M	39.12M	15.32M
EBITDA	-180.18M	-176.14M	-66.42M	-61.91M	-75.62M	-146.09M
Net Income	-192.71M	-193.51M	-80.74M	-63.42M	-10.80M	-159.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	405.92M	457.94M	252.06M	149.29M	204.89M	261.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	349.68M	392.10M	195.81M	102.30M	164.16M	228.06M
Total Debt	76.22M	75.78M	83.39M	64.28M	58.98M	58.44M
Total Liabilities	139.99M	142.59M	160.93M	113.91M	116.89M	185.77M
Stockholders Equity	265.93M	315.34M	91.13M	35.38M	88.00M	76.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-148.43M	-135.97M	-76.32M	-63.32M	-66.74M	-54.40M
Operating Cash Flow	-145.46M	-134.68M	-70.23M	-59.60M	-65.55M	-53.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.97M	-1.29M	-6.09M	-3.71M	-1.19M	-841.00K
Financing Cash Flow	15.07M	332.11M	169.83M	1.45M	2.85M	228.01M

Ocular Therapeutix Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OCUL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.90, above the 50-day MA of 8.17, and above the 200-day MA of 8.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OCUL.

Ocular Therapeutix Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PCRX	59 Neutral	$1.08B	―	-12.27%	―	3.08%	-247.82%
BLFS	57 Neutral	$1.09B	―	-3.29%	―	-23.12%	97.46%
OCUL	55 Neutral	$1.53B	―	-57.19%	―	-0.33%	-3.59%
VRDN	55 Neutral	$1.28B	―	-49.41%	―	4.86%	10.13%
OPK	52 Neutral	$1.08B	―	-3.04%	―	-13.79%	82.82%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.50B	0.31	-61.87%	2.27%	17.10%	1.59%
ETNB	42 Neutral	$1.48B	―	-69.30%	―	―	-68.13%

Ocular Therapeutix Corporate Events

Ocular Therapeutix Approves Key Amendments at Annual Meeting

On June 11, 2025, Ocular Therapeutix held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several key amendments were approved. These included increasing shares under the 2021 Stock Incentive Plan and the 2014 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, as well as updating the company’s Certificate of Incorporation to include officer exculpation. Additionally, the company completed enrollment for its SOL-R Phase 3 clinical trial for AXPAXLI, a treatment for wet AMD, on May 31, 2025, ensuring sufficient subjects for its target randomization.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCUL) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocular Therapeutix stock, see the OCUL Stock Forecast page.