Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.41B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.45M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.71
• Revenue Growth: -9.21%
• EPS Growth: -8.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 274
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 213,047,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,938,993
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,454,920
• PEG Ratio: -0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 21.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.78
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 33.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 37.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -8.06
• 1Y Price Target: $22.70
• Price Target Upside: 100.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $55.07M

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▼(-7.08% Downside)

Ocular Therapeutix's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by declining revenues and persistent losses. While the earnings call provided some positive insights into clinical progress and financial stability, the technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the valuation metrics reflect the company's unprofitability. These factors collectively contribute to a low overall stock score.

Positive Factors

Innovative Product Pipeline

The potential superiority label for AXPAXLI in wet AMD could significantly enhance market positioning, offering a competitive edge and driving long-term growth.

Strong Cash Position

A robust cash position provides financial stability and flexibility to invest in R&D and strategic initiatives, supporting sustainable growth.

Strategic Market Expansion

The HELIOS program's focus on diabetic retinopathy and macular edema could expand market reach and address unmet needs, enhancing long-term revenue potential.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue indicates challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could impact long-term profitability and market competitiveness.

Operational Inefficiencies

Persistent operational inefficiencies and high costs relative to revenue can hinder profitability and limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flows indicate financial strain, potentially limiting the company's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives without external financing.

Ocular Therapeutix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the formulation, development, and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology. The company markets ReSure Sealant, an ophthalmic device to prevent wound leaks in corneal incisions following cataract surgery; and DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert to treat post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain following ophthalmic surgery, as well as allergic conjunctivitis. It is also developing OTX-TKI, an axitinib intravitreal implant that is in phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and other retinal diseases; OTX-TIC, a travoprost intracameral implant, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension; OTX-CSI, a cyclosporine intracanalicular insert that has completed phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of dry eye disease; and OTX-DED, a dexamethasone intracanalicular insert, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the short-term treatment of the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease. The company has a strategic collaboration with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Regeneron) for the development and commercialization of products using the Company's sustained-release hydrogel in combination with Regeneron's large molecule VEGF-targeting compounds for the treatment of retinal diseases; and AffaMed Therapeutics Limited for the development and commercialization of DEXTENZA and OTX-TIC, as well as a discovery collaboration with Mosaic Biosciences to identify new targets and therapeutic agents for the treatment of dry age-related macular degeneration (dMAD). Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Ocular Therapeutix generates revenue through the sale of its commercialized products, primarily Dextenza, which is marketed directly to healthcare providers and hospitals. The company also explores partnerships and collaboration agreements with other pharmaceutical companies for the development and commercialization of its pipeline products. Additionally, Ocular Therapeutix may receive milestone payments and royalties from partners based on the successful commercialization of its products. The company's revenue model is bolstered by ongoing research and development aimed at expanding its product offerings and entering new markets, as well as its focus on addressing unmet needs in the ocular therapeutics space.

Ocular Therapeutix Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ocular Therapeutix faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and persistent losses impacting profitability. Despite a strong gross profit margin, high operational losses and negative cash flows highlight ongoing financial instability. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but negative returns on equity suggest inefficiencies in generating shareholder value.

Income Statement

Ocular Therapeutix shows a declining revenue trend with a negative revenue growth rate of -1.56% in the TTM period. The company has a high gross profit margin of 88.85%, indicating efficient production, but suffers from significant net losses, reflected in a net profit margin of -448.09%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.30, suggesting moderate leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -87.19%, indicating that the company is not generating profit from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 62.85%, showing a reasonable proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Ocular Therapeutix has a positive free cash flow growth rate of 11.19% in the TTM period, but the operating cash flow is negative, leading to an operating cash flow to net income ratio of -3.86. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, indicating that free cash flow covers net income, albeit both are negative.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	55.78M	63.72M	58.44M	51.49M	43.52M	17.40M
Gross Profit	49.57M	58.10M	53.16M	46.95M	39.12M	15.32M
EBITDA	-233.53M	-176.14M	-66.42M	-61.91M	2.54M	-146.09M
Net Income	-249.67M	-193.51M	-80.74M	-71.04M	-6.55M	-155.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	410.88M	457.94M	252.06M	149.29M	204.89M	261.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	344.77M	392.10M	195.81M	102.30M	164.16M	228.06M
Total Debt	77.01M	75.78M	83.39M	64.28M	58.98M	58.44M
Total Liabilities	152.65M	142.59M	160.93M	113.91M	116.89M	185.77M
Stockholders Equity	258.23M	315.34M	91.13M	35.38M	88.00M	76.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-199.44M	-135.97M	-76.32M	-63.32M	-66.74M	-54.40M
Operating Cash Flow	-190.06M	-134.68M	-70.23M	-59.60M	-65.55M	-53.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-9.24M	-1.29M	-6.09M	-3.71M	-1.19M	-841.00K
Financing Cash Flow	116.86M	332.11M	169.83M	1.45M	2.85M	228.01M

Ocular Therapeutix Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OCUL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.33, below the 50-day MA of 11.78, and above the 200-day MA of 9.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OCUL.

Ocular Therapeutix Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TARS	60 Neutral	$3.10B	―	-28.35%	―	182.44%	47.21%
SPRY	52 Neutral	$811.55M	―	-45.92%	―	5459.66%	-59.70%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
OCUL	46 Neutral	$2.41B	―	-81.83%	―	-9.21%	-8.84%
BLTE	43 Neutral	$3.62B	-71.67	-32.30%	―	―	-73.27%
ETNB	42 Neutral	―	―	-86.86%	―	―	-82.75%
BEAM	40 Neutral	$2.20B	-4.97	-47.19%	―	-84.07%	-157.71%

Ocular Therapeutix Corporate Events

Ocular Therapeutix Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. is an integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on revolutionizing the treatment of retinal diseases through innovative therapies, primarily in the field of ophthalmology. The company is known for its investigational product AXPAXLI, a bioresorbable hydrogel designed for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and diabetic retinopathy.

Ocular Therapeutix Earnings Call: Optimism Amid Challenges

Ocular Therapeutix Inc’s recent earnings call painted a picture of optimism tempered with caution. The company showcased significant strides in clinical trials and financial health, buoyed by strong payer support and successful trial execution. However, challenges such as market pricing pressures and potential enrollment hurdles in diabetic retinopathy trials were also acknowledged.

Ocular Therapeutix Announces $475M Stock Offering

On September 30, 2025, Ocular Therapeutix announced the pricing of an underwritten offering of 37,909,018 shares of its common stock at $12.53 per share, aiming to raise approximately $475 million. The net proceeds are expected to fund clinical trials, manufacturing scale-up, and pre-commercialization activities for AXPAXLI, as well as general corporate purposes. The offering is anticipated to close on October 1, 2025, and is expected to extend the company’s cash runway into 2028, supporting its strategic initiatives and operational growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCUL) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocular Therapeutix stock, see the OCUL Stock Forecast page.

Ocular Therapeutix Updates on AXPAXLI Clinical Trials

On September 30, 2025, Ocular Therapeutix announced updates on its clinical trials for AXPAXLI, including ongoing Phase 3 trials for wet AMD and plans for trials in NPDR. The SOL-1 and SOL-R trials for wet AMD are progressing, with SOL-1 expected to yield results in early 2026 and SOL-R in 2027, potentially leading to a new drug application. Additionally, the company plans to initiate the SOL-X extension trial and HELIOS-2 and HELIOS-3 trials for NPDR, aiming to expand its market presence. A notice of allowance for a patent related to AXPAXLI was also received, potentially strengthening the company’s intellectual property portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCUL) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocular Therapeutix stock, see the OCUL Stock Forecast page.

Ocular Therapeutix Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. is an integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on advancing treatments for retinal diseases, particularly through its investigational product AXPAXLI, which is undergoing Phase 3 clinical trials for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD).

Ocular Therapeutix Earnings Call: Positive Outlook Amid Trial Progress

The recent earnings call for Ocular Therapeutix Inc. conveyed a predominantly positive sentiment, underscored by the promising advancements in the AXPAXLI trials for wet AMD and the company’s strong financial standing. While there were some concerns regarding the timeline for data readouts and the complexity of trial designs, the potential for a unique market position and expansion into new therapeutic areas suggests a robust strategic direction for the company.