Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.31B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.97M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.59
• Revenue Growth: -9.21%
• EPS Growth: -8.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 274
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 213,047,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,485,004
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,971,707
• PEG Ratio: -0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 21.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 33.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 37.36
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.93
• 1Y Price Target: $23.43
• Price Target Upside: 127.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(2.14% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (persistent losses, negative operating cash flow, and declining revenue) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partly offset by a relatively strong earnings-call outlook driven by clinical-trial progress and stated funding runway, while valuation provides limited support due to negative earnings and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong cash runway and recent financing

A substantial cash balance plus recent $445M financing materially reduces near‑term execution risk, allowing the company to fund SOL-1/SOL‑R readouts, HELIOS trials and potential NDA preparation without immediate capital raises. This preserves program continuity and strategic optionality over the next 2–3 years.

Proprietary sustained‑release hydrogel technology

Owning a differentiated sustained‑release delivery platform is a durable competitive asset in ophthalmology: it supports multiple indications, creates technical barriers to generic substitution, enables longer dosing intervals that drive payer interest, and can sustain premium positioning across future product launches.

Clinical progress toward superiority label for AXPAXLI

Pursuit of a superiority label in wet AMD is a structural strategic advantage: proven superiority vs. incumbents would change formulary dynamics, support differentiated commercial positioning, and drive durable uptake if approved, reshaping competitive dynamics in a large anti‑VEGF market.

Negative Factors

Persistent operating losses and negative cash flow

Sustained net losses and negative operating cash flow indicate structural cash burn that can erode flexibility. Over multiple quarters this forces reliance on equity or debt financing, risks dilution or higher capital costs, and constrains the firm's ability to self‑fund commercialization and late‑stage trials long term.

Negative ROE and weak profitability metrics

A deeply negative ROE signals the company is destroying shareholder capital rather than generating returns, reflecting persistent operating losses and poor capital efficiency. Over time this can reduce investor appetite, raise financing costs, and limit resources available for R&D or market expansion.

Structural market pricing pressure and enrollment risk

Chronic pricing pressure in wet AMD can blunt revenue capture even for differentiated therapies, while difficulty enrolling NPDR patients threatens HELIOS timelines. Together these structural challenges may compress realized margins and delay market entry, reducing long‑term commercial upside.

Ocular Therapeutix Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the formulation, development, and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology. The company markets ReSure Sealant, an ophthalmic device to prevent wound leaks in corneal incisions following cataract surgery; and DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert to treat post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain following ophthalmic surgery, as well as allergic conjunctivitis. It is also developing OTX-TKI, an axitinib intravitreal implant that is in phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and other retinal diseases; OTX-TIC, a travoprost intracameral implant, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension; OTX-CSI, a cyclosporine intracanalicular insert that has completed phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of dry eye disease; and OTX-DED, a dexamethasone intracanalicular insert, which is in phase 2 clinical trials for the short-term treatment of the signs and symptoms of dry eye disease. The company has a strategic collaboration with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Regeneron) for the development and commercialization of products using the Company's sustained-release hydrogel in combination with Regeneron's large molecule VEGF-targeting compounds for the treatment of retinal diseases; and AffaMed Therapeutics Limited for the development and commercialization of DEXTENZA and OTX-TIC, as well as a discovery collaboration with Mosaic Biosciences to identify new targets and therapeutic agents for the treatment of dry age-related macular degeneration (dMAD). Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Ocular Therapeutix generates revenue primarily through the sale of its commercialized products, with Dextenza being the main contributor to its earnings. The company also engages in various partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies to develop and commercialize additional therapies, which can provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties based on the sales of these products. Additionally, the company may receive funding through grants or research agreements to support the development of its pipeline products, further contributing to its overall revenue stream.

Ocular Therapeutix Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: strong gross margin (88.85%) but declining revenue (-1.56% TTM) and very large losses (net margin -448.09%) with negative operating cash flow. Balance sheet leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity 0.30), but ROE is deeply negative (-87.19%).

Income Statement

Ocular Therapeutix shows a declining revenue trend with a negative revenue growth rate of -1.56% in the TTM period. The company has a high gross profit margin of 88.85%, indicating efficient production, but suffers from significant net losses, reflected in a net profit margin of -448.09%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.30, suggesting moderate leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -87.19%, indicating that the company is not generating profit from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 62.85%, showing a reasonable proportion of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Ocular Therapeutix has a positive free cash flow growth rate of 11.19% in the TTM period, but the operating cash flow is negative, leading to an operating cash flow to net income ratio of -3.86. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, indicating that free cash flow covers net income, albeit both are negative.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	55.78M	63.72M	58.44M	51.49M	43.52M	17.40M
Gross Profit	49.57M	58.10M	53.16M	46.95M	39.12M	15.32M
EBITDA	-233.53M	-176.14M	-66.42M	-61.91M	2.54M	-146.09M
Net Income	-249.67M	-193.51M	-80.74M	-71.04M	-6.55M	-155.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	410.88M	457.94M	252.06M	149.29M	204.89M	261.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	344.77M	392.10M	195.81M	102.30M	164.16M	228.06M
Total Debt	77.01M	75.78M	83.39M	64.28M	58.98M	58.44M
Total Liabilities	152.65M	142.59M	160.93M	113.91M	116.89M	185.77M
Stockholders Equity	258.23M	315.34M	91.13M	35.38M	88.00M	76.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-199.44M	-135.97M	-76.32M	-63.32M	-66.74M	-54.40M
Operating Cash Flow	-190.06M	-134.68M	-70.23M	-59.60M	-65.55M	-53.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-9.24M	-1.29M	-6.09M	-3.71M	-1.19M	-841.00K
Financing Cash Flow	116.86M	332.11M	169.83M	1.45M	2.85M	228.01M

Ocular Therapeutix Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.28
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OCUL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.21, below the 50-day MA of 12.22, and below the 200-day MA of 10.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OCUL.

Ocular Therapeutix Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BLTE	62 Neutral	$5.84B	-86.28	-32.30%	―	―	-73.27%
TARS	60 Neutral	$2.89B	-31.88	-28.35%	―	182.44%	47.21%
SPRY	54 Neutral	$1.04B	-12.42	-45.92%	―	5459.66%	-59.70%
BEAM	53 Neutral	$3.12B	-6.54	-47.19%	―	-84.07%	-157.71%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
OCUL	49 Neutral	$2.31B	-7.16	-81.83%	―	-9.21%	-8.84%

Ocular Therapeutix Corporate Events

Ocular Therapeutix appoints Jason Robins interim CFO

Effective January 20, 2026, Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. announced that Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer Donald Notman has taken a temporary medical leave of absence. On the same date, the board appointed Jason Robins, previously Senior Vice President of Finance, as interim Chief Financial Officer and as the company’s principal financial and accounting officer, granting him a stock option for 33,000 shares vesting over four years under the company’s 2021 Stock Incentive Plan. Robins, 49, joined Ocular Therapeutix in January 2025 after serving as Vice President of Finance at Fusion Pharmaceuticals Inc., and his appointment involves no related-party transactions or special arrangements with other company insiders, signaling a routine, internally sourced leadership transition with standard indemnification protections during Notman’s absence.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCUL) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocular Therapeutix stock, see the OCUL Stock Forecast page.

Ocular Therapeutix Enters Quiet Period Ahead of SOL-1 Milestone

On December 18, 2025, Ocular Therapeutix announced it will enter a quiet period starting December 20, 2025 as it prepares for database lock of its SOL-1 Phase 3 clinical trial of AXPAXLI (also known as OTX-TKI) for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration. The company said its next investor communication is planned for early February 2026, tied to the release of fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, when it also expects to update investors on the timing of SOL-1 trial data, which remains scheduled for the first quarter of 2026, signaling a potentially important near-term clinical and strategic milestone for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCUL) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocular Therapeutix stock, see the OCUL Stock Forecast page.

Ocular Therapeutix Prepares NDA Submission for Wet AMD Drug

Ocular Therapeutix plans to submit a new drug application for its product candidate AXPAXLI (OTX-TKI) for wet AMD treatment based on year 1 data from its SOL-1 Phase 3 clinical trial, following recent FDA guidance. The company anticipates reporting top-line data from this trial in the first quarter of 2026, potentially accelerating its regulatory pathway and impacting its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (OCUL) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ocular Therapeutix stock, see the OCUL Stock Forecast page.