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Origin Bancorp (OBK)
NYSE:OBK
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Origin Bancorp
(NYSE:OBK)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$48.00
▲(11.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
OBK scores well primarily due to a strengthened balance sheet and a positive earnings-call outlook with clear growth and ROA targets. Technicals are supportive but mixed near-term, while valuation is only moderate with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Origin’s material deleveraging and steady equity growth underpin long-term financial flexibility. A much lower debt-to-equity ratio and rising tangible book provide loss-absorption capacity, support lending during cycles, enable buybacks/dividends, and reduce refinancing risk for the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Management Execution & Clear Targets
Management has demonstrated delivery against clear, measurable targets (ROA run-rate) and articulated credible medium-term goals. That track record and transparent guidance increase predictability for capital allocation and strategy execution, improving the durability of operational plans and investor confidence.
Earnings Quality: Loan & Fee Growth, NIM
Strong loan production and fee growth, alongside recent NIM expansion, point to improving core interest and noninterest income mix. These drivers increase recurring revenue, diversify earnings, and support sustainable net interest income growth over several quarters as origination pipelines and fee businesses compound.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Variability
Although operating cash flow was positive in 2025, multi-year negative free cash flow growth indicates inconsistent cash conversion. Variable FCF constrains longer-term reinvestment, reduces margin for unexpected credit losses or funding needs, and limits predictable capital returns during stress periods.
Revenue & Profitability Normalization
After strong multi-year growth, recent revenue declines and normalized margins suggest the company is past cyclical peaks. Persistently lower margins and net income versus the 2021–2022 peak reduce incremental return-on-equity potential and make sustaining prior profit levels more challenging over the medium term.
Limited Funding Flexibility / Securities Constraints
With a meaningful securities allocation and management unwilling to materially reallocate, the bank’s immediate capacity to fund larger loan growth is constrained. Reliance on modest securities roll yield pickup and limited redeployment flexibility could slow loan-funded growth or require greater deposit funding reliance.
Origin Bancorp (OBK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.31B
Dividend Yield1.56%
Average Volume (3M)140.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.6
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth-6.29%
EPS Growth-21.17%
CountryUS
Employees1,031
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.95
Shares Outstanding30,972,120
10 Day Avg. Volume168,504
30 Day Avg. Volume140,536
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-12.61
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)1.93
P/FCF Ratio11.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.72
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.67Price Target Upside8.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$426.29M
Origin Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOrigin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. It offers noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, mortgage warehouse, residential mortgage, and paycheck protection program loans. The company also offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and Internet banking and voice response information, mobile applications, cash management, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit box, U.S. savings bonds, and automatic account transfer services; and treasury management, mortgage origination and servicing facilities, peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions, and personal financial management solutions. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrigin Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from various fees and services. The key revenue streams include interest earned on commercial and consumer loans, mortgage origination fees, and service charges on deposit accounts. Additionally, the bank benefits from wealth management services and treasury management solutions provided to its commercial clients. Origin Bancorp also engages in strategic partnerships and community-oriented initiatives to enhance customer loyalty and expand its market presence, contributing to its overall earnings.
Origin Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple clear financial and operational positives: the company beat its near-term ROA target, delivered solid earnings and pretax pre-provision performance, grew loan originations and fee income significantly, expanded NIM, strengthened capital metrics, and maintained generally sound credit metrics. Management also outlined disciplined but opportunistic growth plans (targeted banker hires and ~$10M investment) to capture market disruption. Headwinds discussed were manageable and largely timing- or investment-related: a modest sequential deposit dip (partly technical), brief margin timing pressure in Q1, modest expense increase from strategic hires and contract renegotiation fees, and small upticks in classified loans and short-term delinquencies. Overall, highlights materially outweighed the lowlights, and management conveyed confidence and momentum heading into 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Achieved Targeted ROA Run Rate
Q4 run-rate return on average assets (ROA) was 1.19%, exceeding the near-term target of 1.0% and supporting management's Optimize Origin progress.
Strong Earnings and Pretax Pre-Provision Performance
Q4 diluted EPS was $0.95 and net income was $29.5 million. Pretax pre-provision earnings were $40.6 million in Q4 and increased to $42.2 million excluding notable items (from $39.9 million prior), with annualized pretax pre-provision ROA rising to 1.7% from 1.63%.
Loan Production and Fee Growth
Loan originations rose by approximately $500 million, a ~37% year-over-year increase; loan and swap fees increased 57% year-over-year, and Q4 originations were the highest in over two years.
Net Interest Margin Expansion and NII Outlook
Net interest margin (NIM) expanded 8 basis points sequentially to 3.73% in Q4. Management expects NIM in the 3.70%–3.80% range by Q4 2026 (current bias to higher end) and anticipates net interest income growth in the mid- to high-single digits for the year.
Improved Capital and Tangible Book Value
Tangible common equity (TCE) ratio increased to 11.3% from 10.9% in Q3; tangible book value rose to $35.04 (13th consecutive quarter of sequential growth). During 2025, the company redeemed ~$145 million of subordinated debt and repurchased ~$16 million of common stock while maintaining well-capitalized ratios.
Sound Credit Metrics and Reduced NPAs
Total past-due loans were 0.96% of loans (flat sequentially); net charge-offs were $3.2 million (0.17% annualized for the quarter); nonperforming assets declined from 1.18% to 1.07% (~$7 million reduction); allowance for credit losses increased modestly to $96.8 million and remained ~1.34% of loans.
Operational Optimization and Strategic Investments
Continued execution of 'Optimize Origin' delivered a ~7% reduction in FTEs, consolidation of banking centers, 20% ownership of Argent Financial, and plans to invest roughly $10 million in new bankers/banking teams to capture market disruption (more than 10 production bankers already added).
Negative Updates
Noninterest Income Pressures
Q4 noninterest income was $16.7 million; excluding notable items, it declined to $16.3 million from $17.1 million primarily due to reduced swap fee income and normal seasonality in the insurance segment.
Expense Growth and Near-Term Q1 Pressure
Noninterest expense was $62.8 million in Q4 (or $61.5 million excluding notables, up from $61.1 million). Management expects mid-single-digit expense growth for the year driven by hiring and upfront fees from technology contract renegotiations; Q1 expense run-rate guided near $64 million (± $1M) with anticipated upfront booking pressure.
Deposit Volatility and Sequential Decline
Total deposits declined 0.3% in the quarter (partly affected by a $215 million interest-bearing deposit sale that was repurchased two days later). Noninterest-bearing deposits fell 1.0% sequentially (though average noninterest-bearing deposits rose 5.3%).
Slight Deterioration in Classified Loans and Short-Dated Delinquencies
Total classified loans increased from 1.84% to 1.92% of loans (approximately $9.3 million increase). Past dues 30–89 days rose to 0.19% from 0.10% the prior quarter.
Near-Term Margin Timing Headwinds
Management expects slight NIM compression in Q1 due to timing differences in loan versus deposit repricing following recent Fed cuts (loan repricing lags deposit moves), creating temporary pressure before anticipated mid-year margin improvement.
Limited Flexibility to Reallocate Securities
Securities are being managed to ~11%–12% of assets and management does not plan a material shift from securities to loans; while $150 million of securities will roll in 2026 (expected to pick up 50–75 bps spread), the ability to fund incremental loan growth from securities is constrained.
Company Guidance
The company guided to mid- to high-single-digit loan and deposit growth for 2026 (with loan growth weighted to the back half of the year) and plans to invest roughly $10 million in new bankers/teams (with additional “dry powder” possible), while targeting net interest income growth in the mid- to high-single-digits and full‑year noninterest income growth in the mid- to high-single-digits (Q4/Q4 ex-notables expected in the low‑ to mid-single-digits); net interest margin is expected to modestly compress in Q1 but finish Q4 in the 3.70%–3.80% range (guidance centered near 3.75% ±5 bps) assuming two 25 bp Fed cuts (March and June), and management expects a Q4 run‑rate ROA of at least 1.15% and a pretax pre‑provision run‑rate ROA in excess of 1.72%. They noted specific balance sheet drivers including ~$150M of securities rolling in 2026 (reinvestment spreads of ~50–75 bps) and $350M–$400M of loans maturing (avg yield ~4.8% with new yields in the low‑to‑mid 6s), Q1 noninterest expense run‑rate near $64M (+/‑ $1M) with mid‑single‑digit expense growth for the year (ex‑notables), and emphasized capital flexibility with tangible book value of $35.04, TCE ~11.3%, ~$145M sub‑debt redeemed and ~$16M common repurchased (while maintaining a ~20% of earnings dividend posture).Origin Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are solid overall, led by a very strong balance sheet (material deleveraging and steady equity growth). Income statement trends show a larger revenue base and still-healthy margins, but profitability has normalized versus 2021–2022 and revenue was slightly down most recently. Cash flow remains positive and broadly aligned with earnings, though free cash flow growth has been declining and is somewhat variable.Income Statement
Revenue expanded strongly from 2020 to 2025 (from ~$287M to ~$599M), but the most recent year was slightly down versus 2024 (about -3%). Profitability remains solid for a regional bank, with 2025 net margin around 12.6% and EBIT margin ~16.5%, though both are meaningfully below the very high margin levels seen in 2021–2022. Net income has also trended lower from its 2021 peak, indicating profitability has normalized even as the revenue base has grown.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a clear deleveraging trend: debt-to-equity improved materially from ~1.76x in 2020 to ~0.03x in 2025, alongside steady equity growth (to ~$1.25B) and stable total assets (~$9.7B). Returns on equity are positive but moderating (about 6.0% in 2025 vs. higher levels in 2021–2022), suggesting solid capitalization with somewhat lower profitability on the equity base.86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive and generally supports earnings: 2025 operating cash flow was ~$99M and free cash flow matched it, with free cash flow running at roughly 100% of net income. However, free cash flow growth has been negative for several years (including a steep decline in 2025), and 2020 showed weak/negative free cash flow, highlighting variability and a less consistent cash-flow trajectory than profits.62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 598.60M | 616.80M | 576.69M | 377.78M | 290.46M |
| Gross Profit | 348.50M | 345.13M | 336.10M | 301.76M | 275.82M |
| EBITDA | 113.40M | 114.06M | 123.55M | 119.75M | 139.26M |
| Net Income | 75.20M | 76.49M | 83.80M | 87.72M | 108.55M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.72B | 9.68B | 9.72B | 9.69B | 7.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 104.19M | 1.57B | 1.53B | 2.00B | 2.21B |
| Total Debt | 35.59M | 172.40M | 277.88M | 841.00M | 467.22M |
| Total Liabilities | 8.48B | 8.53B | 8.66B | 8.74B | 7.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.25B | 1.15B | 1.06B | 949.94M | 730.21M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 98.97M | 86.43M | 103.09M | 137.18M | 166.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 98.97M | 108.48M | 129.92M | 145.65M | 171.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.29M | 231.94M | -130.03M | -455.99M | 12.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -108.82M | -150.61M | -78.42M | -36.31M | 144.07M |
Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
43.04
Price Trends
41.01
Positive
37.95
Positive
36.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.57
Positive
52.89
Neutral
18.08
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.69, above the 50-day MA of 41.01, and above the 200-day MA of 36.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.08 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OBK.
Origin Bancorp Risk Analysis
Origin Bancorp disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Origin Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Origin Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.12B | 11.37 | 12.15% | 3.44% | 9.93% | 17.67% | |
77 Outperform | $1.14B | 7.02 | 11.20% | 3.39% | 9.55% | 27.32% | |
75 Outperform | $1.31B | 17.57 | 5.08% | 1.56% | -6.29% | -21.17% | |
73 Outperform | $1.16B | 10.87 | 9.13% | 5.30% | 0.11% | -18.63% | |
72 Outperform | $1.04B | 11.08 | 8.28% | ― | 4.44% | 3.19% | |
69 Neutral | $1.07B | 16.01 | 4.77% | 4.05% | -2.15% | -25.32% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
OBK
Origin Bancorp
43.04
5.54
14.78%
OCFC
Oceanfirst Financial
19.05
2.17
12.86%
PEBO
Peoples Bancorp
33.12
3.09
10.30%
TMP
Tompkins Financial Corporation
81.00
15.43
23.54%
CTBI
Community Bancorp
62.48
10.42
20.01%
FSUN
FirstSun Capital Bancorp
38.42
-1.83
-4.55%
Origin Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Origin Bancorp posts strong Q4 rebound and dividend
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Origin Bancorp reported a sharp rebound in profitability for the fourth quarter of 2025, with net income rising to $29.5 million, or $0.95 per diluted share, up from $8.6 million, or $0.27 per share, in the prior quarter, driven by record net interest income of $86.7 million and improved net interest margin as funding costs declined. For full-year 2025, net income reached $75.2 million, or $2.40 per diluted share, slightly below 2024’s per-share earnings, but pre-tax, pre-provision earnings climbed 35.5%, reflecting stronger underlying performance. The company’s Optimize Origin initiative, launched in January 2025 to boost productivity, balance sheet efficiency and culture, helped push annualized return on average assets to 1.19% in the fourth quarter, above its near-term 1% target, and management has now raised its near-term ROAA run-rate goal to at least 1.15% by the fourth quarter of 2026. Loan balances grew modestly, core deposits were stable to slightly higher after adjusting for a year-end deposit sale-and-repurchase, book value and tangible book value per share continued to rise, and the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share payable on February 27, 2026, alongside ongoing share repurchases, underscoring management’s confidence and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (OBK) stock is a Buy with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Bancorp stock, see the OBK Stock Forecast page.
Financial Disclosures
Origin Bancorp Schedules Q4 2025 Earnings Release, Call
Neutral
Jan 9, 2026
On January 9, 2026, Origin Bancorp, Inc. announced it will release its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after markets close on January 28, 2026, and will discuss the numbers during an investor conference call and webcast on January 29, 2026, led by senior executives including Chairman, President and CEO Drake Mills. The scheduled earnings release and detailed presentation underscore the company’s ongoing engagement with investors and analysts, providing a platform to review its recent operational and financial performance and offering stakeholders structured insight into the bank’s current position and trajectory within its regional banking markets.
The most recent analyst rating on (OBK) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Bancorp stock, see the OBK Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.