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Origin Bancorp
(NYSE:OBK)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$58.00
▲(7.63% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/23/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial strength (notably the improved leverage profile and strong cash generation) and an upbeat earnings call with clear profitability targets and improving operating metrics. Technicals add support with an established uptrend and neutral-to-positive momentum. Valuation is the main limiter, with only a moderate P/E and a relatively low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet conservatism
Origin Bancorp’s debt-to-equity near ~0.02 and rising equity (~$1.26B TTM) create a conservative capital base. This durable strength provides regulatory and lending flexibility, supports continued buybacks/dividends, and reduces solvency risk across credit cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Weakening top-line momentum
A ~19% TTM revenue decline signals durable top-line headwinds. Slower revenue makes earnings more dependent on margin and cost actions, limits reinvestment capacity, and increases sensitivity to adverse credit or rate shifts, constraining growth prospects over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet conservatism
Origin Bancorp’s debt-to-equity near ~0.02 and rising equity (~$1.26B TTM) create a conservative capital base. This durable strength provides regulatory and lending flexibility, supports continued buybacks/dividends, and reduces solvency risk across credit cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Origin Bancorp (OBK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.69B
Dividend Yield1.28%
Average Volume (3M)140.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.9
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth3.63%
EPS Growth43.62%
CountryUS
Employees988
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.23
Shares Outstanding30,904,093
10 Day Avg. Volume168,504
30 Day Avg. Volume140,536
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-12.69
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)1.93
P/FCF Ratio7.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.33Price Target Upside6.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)4.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$435.73M
Origin Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Origin Bancorp, Inc. acts as the parent organization for Origin Bank, delivering a comprehensive range of banking and financial services. Its diverse clientele includes small to mid-sized businesses, municipal entities, and individual consumers ac...
How the Company Makes Money
Origin Bancorp primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is generated by the spread between interest earned on interest-earning assets—primarily loans (e...
Origin Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong core financial performance—recorded EPS, NIM expansion, solid loan growth concentrated in Texas and the Southeast, improving credit metrics, rising primary deposit relationships, sustained capital returns, and successful recruiting and culture initiatives. Offsetting items include seasonal deposit decline, pressure and volatility in non-interest income, mid-single-digit expense increases as strategic investments continue, competitive pricing pressures that could compress spreads, a modest reduction in allowance levels, and an upcoming Durbin impact. Overall, management presents confident forward guidance and active mitigation plans for known headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Earnings and Profitability
Diluted EPS of $1.09 (strongest quarterly EPS since Q4 2021) and net income of $33.8M; return on average assets (ROA) of 1.35% (above the 1.15% near-term run rate objective) and pre-tax, pre-provision ROA of 1.73%.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Deposit Decline and Potential Funding Pressure
Total deposits declined 0.6% during the quarter (seasonal), and management acknowledges ongoing deposit pricing pressure which could offset NIM gains if deposit costs rise.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Earnings and Profitability
Diluted EPS of $1.09 (strongest quarterly EPS since Q4 2021) and net income of $33.8M; return on average assets (ROA) of 1.35% (above the 1.15% near-term run rate objective) and pre-tax, pre-provision ROA of 1.73%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a disciplined growth and profitability outlook: they continue to target Q4 run‑rate ROA of at least 1.15% and a pre‑tax, pre‑provision run‑rate ROA in excess of 1.72% (Q2 actuals: ROA 1.35%, pre‑tax/pre‑provision ROA 1.73%, net income $33.8M, diluted EPS $1.09); full‑year loan and deposit growth remains targeted in the mid‑ to high‑single‑digits (tracking to the higher end) with net interest income now expected to grow in the high‑single‑digits full‑year and Q4‑over‑Q4 while NIM is modeled to be relatively flat (Q2 NIM 3.92%, +21 bps; ±5 bps sensitivity noted); noninterest income growth is guided to low‑ to mid‑single‑digits (Q2 noninterest income $15.4M) and noninterest expense to mid‑single‑digits (Q2 noninterest expense $64.4M) excluding notable items; key balance sheet and capital metrics include loans up 2.7% sequentially (1.9% excl. warehouse), noninterest‑bearing deposits +~$200M in the quarter to 26% of deposits (25% on average, +9.6% sequential), allowance for credit losses $98.2M (1.30% of loans net of warehouse), NPAs 0.98%, annualized net charge‑offs 0.02% for the quarter (0.08% YTD), tangible book value $36.37 (15th consecutive quarter growth) and TCE ~11.1%; management also expanded buyback authorization by $100M (remaining $121.6M) and reminded investors of a Durbin headwind of ~$4.0–4.5M mid‑2027 while citing reinvestment tailwinds (≈$250M of fixed‑rate loans repricing in H2 picking up ~160–170 bps and ~$35–40M of securities runoff per quarter reinvesting at ~100 bps) that are expected to be largely offset by deposit and loan pricing pressures.Origin Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 611.33M | 598.60M | 616.80M | 576.69M | 377.78M | 290.46M |
| Gross Profit | 381.51M | 348.50M | 345.13M | 336.10M | 301.76M | 275.82M |
| EBITDA | 139.09M | 113.40M | 114.06M | 123.55M | 119.75M | 139.26M |
| Net Income | 99.68M | 75.20M | 76.49M | 83.80M | 87.72M | 108.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.28B | 9.72B | 9.68B | 9.72B | 9.69B | 7.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 124.98M | 104.19M | 1.57B | 1.53B | 2.00B | 2.21B |
| Total Debt | 136.88M | 35.59M | 172.40M | 277.88M | 841.00M | 467.22M |
| Total Liabilities | 9.00B | 8.48B | 8.53B | 8.66B | 8.74B | 7.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.28B | 1.25B | 1.15B | 1.06B | 949.94M | 730.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 144.55M | 151.05M | 86.43M | 103.09M | 137.18M | 166.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 155.60M | 158.92M | 108.48M | 129.92M | 145.65M | 171.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -236.21M | -113.69M | 231.94M | -130.03M | -455.99M | 12.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 412.70M | -91.27M | -150.61M | -78.42M | -36.31M | 144.07M |
Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
53.89
Price Trends
50.60
Positive
47.26
Positive
42.84
Positive
Market Momentum
1.26
Negative
68.64
Neutral
83.23
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 53.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.65, above the 50-day MA of 50.60, and above the 200-day MA of 42.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OBK.
Origin Bancorp Risk Analysis
Origin Bancorp disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Origin Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Origin Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.42B | 13.10 | 12.52% | 2.78% | 7.78% | 17.67% | |
74 Outperform | $1.69B | 16.94 | 7.97% | 1.30% | 3.63% | 43.62% | |
74 Outperform | $1.50B | 12.47 | 9.85% | 4.09% | -0.29% | 12.86% | |
73 Outperform | $1.44B | 8.12 | 19.30% | 2.58% | -13.65% | 120.32% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.87B | 24.14 | 2.59% | 4.09% | 10.24% | -39.66% | |
64 Neutral | $1.81B | 19.34 | 3.53% | ― | 26.83% | -37.24% |
* Financial Sector Average
OBK
Origin Bancorp
54.98
19.62
55.50%
OCFC
Oceanfirst Financial
19.81
3.85
24.16%
PEBO
Peoples Bancorp
41.75
14.80
54.93%
TMP
Tompkins Financial Corporation
101.54
40.44
66.18%
CTBI
Community Bancorp
79.46
27.61
53.25%
FSUN
FirstSun Capital Bancorp
39.72
4.81
13.78%
Origin Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Origin Bancorp Posts Strong Q2 2026 Earnings Growth
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
Origin Bancorp reported strong second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, 2026, with net income rising to $33.8 million, or $1.09 per diluted share, up from $27.7 million, or $0.89 per share, in the first quarter. Key profitability metrics improved, ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Origin Bancorp to Release Q2 2026 Results Soon
Neutral
Jul 10, 2026
Origin Bancorp, Inc., the Ruston, Louisiana-based financial holding company for Origin Bank, continues to build on its regional banking and insurance footprint across Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. With a f...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Origin Bancorp Expands into Birmingham with New Leadership
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
Origin Bancorp, Inc., the holding company for Origin Bank, continued its Southeast expansion on April 29, 2026, by entering the Birmingham, Alabama market and naming veteran local banker Will Hawkins as Birmingham Market Leader. The move adds an e...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Origin Bancorp Shareholders Reinforce Governance and Compensation Framework
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
At its April 22, 2026 annual meeting in Choudrant, La., Origin Bancorp shareholders elected 10 directors to serve until the 2026 annual meeting, with all nominees receiving sufficient support despite some higher opposition for certain board member...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.