Origin Bancorp (OBK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.13B
• Dividend Yield: 1.64%
• Average Volume (3M): 159.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: -6.29%
• EPS Growth: -21.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,031
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.27
• Shares Outstanding: 30,972,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 141,409
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 159,195
• PEG Ratio: -1.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.91
• 1Y Price Target: $42.67
• Price Target Upside: 16.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.31
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $390.75M

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(6.76% Upside)

Origin Bancorp's overall stock score reflects a solid financial foundation with strong cash flow and a stable balance sheet. The earnings call provided a balanced view with positive growth in loan originations and deposits, but also highlighted challenges such as charge-offs and increased nonperforming assets. Technical analysis indicates mixed signals with short-term bullish momentum but longer-term bearish trends. The valuation is reasonable, suggesting the stock is fairly valued.

Positive Factors

Loan Origination Growth

The significant increase in loan originations indicates strong demand for the company's lending products, which can drive future revenue growth and strengthen its market position.

Noninterest-Bearing Deposits

Growth in noninterest-bearing deposits enhances the company's funding base at a lower cost, improving net interest margins and supporting long-term profitability.

Net Interest Margin Improvement

An improved net interest margin reflects better profitability from core banking operations, enhancing earnings potential and financial stability over time.

Negative Factors

Significant Charge-offs

Large charge-offs due to fraud allegations can impact financial results and indicate potential risk management issues, affecting future profitability.

Decreased Loan Balances

A decline in loan balances suggests reduced lending activity, which can limit revenue growth and signal challenges in maintaining market share.

Increased Nonperforming Assets

Rising nonperforming assets indicate deteriorating asset quality, which can lead to higher credit costs and pressure on future earnings.

Origin Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Bancorp (OBK) is a financial holding company headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana. It operates primarily through its wholly-owned banking subsidiary, Origin Bank, which provides a range of banking services including personal and commercial banking, mortgage lending, and wealth management. The company serves customers across various sectors, focusing on delivering tailored financial solutions to individuals, businesses, and communities, predominantly in Louisiana and Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Bancorp generates revenue primarily through net interest income, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Key revenue streams include commercial and consumer loans, mortgage originations, and various banking fees associated with account services, wire transfers, and ATM usage. Additionally, the company earns income from its wealth management services and investment products. Significant partnerships with local businesses and real estate developers further contribute to its earnings by providing tailored financial services that meet the specific needs of its clientele.

Origin Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Bancorp demonstrates a solid financial foundation with strong cash flow and a stable balance sheet. However, declining profitability and revenue growth in the TTM period raise concerns about future earnings potential. The company maintains low leverage, which is a positive, but needs to address the declining return on equity and improve operational efficiency to enhance profitability.

Income Statement

Origin Bancorp's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 58.79%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 10.69% from 14.53% in 2023, reflecting reduced profitability. Revenue growth has turned negative at -4.18% in the TTM, a concern given the previous positive growth trend. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, suggesting pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.084 in the TTM, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity has decreased to 5.05%, showing reduced efficiency in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a strong capital base. The overall stability is good, but the declining ROE is a point of concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a 22.59% growth in free cash flow in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 86.43%, highlighting strong cash conversion. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, which limits a full assessment of cash flow efficiency. Overall, cash flow performance is strong, supporting financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	560.60M	616.80M	576.69M	377.78M	290.46M	286.96M
Gross Profit	329.59M	345.13M	336.10M	301.76M	275.82M	189.89M
EBITDA	91.58M	114.06M	123.55M	119.75M	139.26M	51.23M
Net Income	59.95M	76.49M	83.80M	87.72M	108.55M	36.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.79B	9.68B	9.72B	9.69B	7.86B	7.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.38B	1.57B	1.53B	2.00B	2.21B	1.38B
Total Debt	102.50M	172.40M	277.88M	841.00M	467.22M	1.14B
Total Liabilities	8.58B	8.53B	8.66B	8.74B	7.13B	6.98B
Stockholders Equity	1.21B	1.15B	1.06B	949.94M	730.21M	647.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	133.12M	86.43M	103.09M	137.18M	166.47M	-6.31M
Operating Cash Flow	145.37M	108.48M	129.92M	145.65M	171.49M	887.00K
Investing Cash Flow	436.82M	231.94M	-130.03M	-455.99M	12.85M	-2.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-276.47M	-150.61M	-78.42M	-36.31M	144.07M	2.20B

Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 36.53
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.93, above the 50-day MA of 34.58, and above the 200-day MA of 35.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.72 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OBK.

Origin Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TMP	78 Outperform	$1.01B	11.84	11.20%	3.59%	9.55%	27.32%
OCFC	71 Outperform	$1.02B	13.79	4.77%	4.24%	-2.15%	-25.32%
CTBI	71 Outperform	$1.01B	10.79	11.72%	3.79%	9.93%	17.67%
OBK	70 Outperform	$1.13B	19.11	5.08%	1.64%	-6.29%	-21.17%
PEBO	68 Neutral	$1.06B	10.42	8.75%	5.47%	0.11%	-18.63%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FSUN	61 Neutral	$945.40M	10.72	8.28%	―	4.44%	3.19%

Origin Bancorp Corporate Events

Origin Bancorp’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

Origin Bancorp’s recent earnings call painted a picture of both robust growth and significant challenges. The company showcased strong performance in loan originations, noninterest-bearing deposits, and treasury management fee income, alongside an improved net interest margin. However, the call also highlighted some hurdles, such as a substantial charge-off related to Tricolor, decreased loan balances, and an increase in nonperforming assets. This mix of positive momentum and notable issues reflects a balanced sentiment from the earnings call.

Origin Bancorp Reports Q3 2025 Earnings Highlights

Origin Bancorp, Inc., a financial holding company based in Ruston, Louisiana, operates through its subsidiary Origin Bank, offering a broad range of financial services across various states in the U.S. In its latest earnings report for the third quarter of 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. announced a net income of $8.6 million, a decrease from the previous quarter’s $14.6 million. Despite this decline, the company reported a significant increase in pre-tax, pre-provision earnings, reaching $47.8 million, driven by strategic initiatives under its ‘Optimize Origin’ program. Key financial metrics highlighted in the report include a rise in net interest income to $83.7 million, the highest in ten quarters, and an expansion of the net interest margin to 3.65%. The company also saw an increase in total deposits and a strategic investment in Argent Financial, enhancing its equity method investment income. Looking ahead, Origin Bancorp, Inc. remains focused on its strategic initiatives to drive financial performance and enhance shareholder value, with management expressing confidence in achieving their financial targets by the end of the year.

Origin Bancorp Clarifies Exposure to Tricolor Holdings

On October 23, 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. clarified its position regarding indirect exposure to Tricolor Holdings, LLC during an earnings call for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company reported having four residential mortgage loans to former Tricolor executives, totaling $16.2 million, with a weighted average loan-to-value of 58%. All loans are performing well, and the company does not anticipate any loss exposure, indicating a stable financial position despite the indirect connection to Tricolor.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBK) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Bancorp stock, see the OBK Stock Forecast page.

Origin Bancorp Announces Quarterly Dividend Amid Earnings Drop

On October 22, 2025, Origin Bancorp announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, to be paid on November 28, 2025. The company reported a net income of $8.6 million for the third quarter of 2025, a decrease from the previous quarter, but saw significant growth in pre-tax, pre-provision earnings. The company is executing its ‘Optimize Origin’ initiative, which has contributed to improvements in net interest income and overall financial performance. The initiative includes measures such as branch consolidation and capital optimization, aiming to enhance the company’s return on assets and financial standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBK) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Bancorp stock, see the OBK Stock Forecast page.

Origin Bancorp to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results

On October 10, 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results after market close on October 22, 2025, followed by an investor conference call on October 23, 2025. The call will be led by key executives including Drake Mills, William J. Wallace, IV, and Lance Hall. This announcement is part of Origin’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency with its stakeholders and provide insights into its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBK) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Bancorp stock, see the OBK Stock Forecast page.

Origin Bancorp Director Resigns Amid Tricolor Bankruptcy

On September 7, 2025, Daniel T. Chu resigned from the Board of Directors of Origin Bancorp and its subsidiary, Origin Bank, with no disagreements cited. Chu is the CEO of Tricolor Holdings, a customer of the bank, which has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Origin Bank has placed its $30.1 million loan commitments to Tricolor on non-accrual status and is assessing the collateral and potential credit losses, while planning to pursue remedies to protect its interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBK) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Bancorp stock, see the OBK Stock Forecast page.