Origin Bancorp (OBK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.08B
• Dividend Yield: 1.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 157.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: -6.41%
• EPS Growth: -21.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,031
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.27
• Shares Outstanding: 31,224,718
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 192,504
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 157,655
• PEG Ratio: -1.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.91
• 1Y Price Target: $43.00
• Price Target Upside: 24.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.54
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $386.58M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(4.14% Upside)

Origin Bancorp's overall stock score reflects a stable financial performance with strong gross margins and cash flow generation. The earnings call provided a balanced view of positive growth in certain areas and challenges in others. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and the valuation suggests the stock is fairly priced. The absence of significant corporate events further stabilizes the score.

Origin Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. It offers noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, mortgage warehouse, residential mortgage, and paycheck protection program loans. The company also offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and Internet banking and voice response information, mobile applications, cash management, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit box, U.S. savings bonds, and automatic account transfer services; and treasury management, mortgage origination and servicing facilities, peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions, and personal financial management solutions. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Bancorp generates revenue primarily through net interest income, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Key revenue streams include commercial and consumer loans, mortgage originations, and various banking fees associated with account services, wire transfers, and ATM usage. Additionally, the company earns income from its wealth management services and investment products. Significant partnerships with local businesses and real estate developers further contribute to its earnings by providing tailored financial services that meet the specific needs of its clientele.

Origin Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Bancorp demonstrates a generally stable financial performance with strong gross margins and a conservative balance sheet. While revenue growth has recently turned negative, the company maintains efficient cost management and solid cash flow generation. Potential risks include declining profitability metrics and previous high leverage levels.

Income Statement

Origin Bancorp's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 58.33%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 11.93% from 12.40% in the previous year, reflecting a slight decline in profitability. Revenue growth has turned negative at -4.13%, which is a concern, although historical growth rates were positive. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also slightly decreased, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity has decreased to 5.98% from 6.68%, showing a slight decline in profitability from equity investments. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. However, the decline in ROE and the previous higher leverage levels pose potential risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trajectory with a 13.69% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.015, suggesting potential issues in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.86, reflecting good cash flow relative to earnings. Overall, cash flow management appears robust despite some conversion challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	560.60M	616.80M	576.69M	377.78M	290.46M	286.96M
Gross Profit	329.59M	345.13M	336.10M	301.76M	275.82M	189.89M
EBITDA	91.58M	114.06M	123.55M	119.75M	139.26M	51.23M
Net Income	59.95M	76.49M	83.80M	87.72M	108.55M	36.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.79B	9.68B	9.72B	9.69B	7.86B	7.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	125.10M	1.57B	1.53B	2.00B	2.21B	1.38B
Total Debt	102.50M	172.40M	277.88M	841.00M	467.22M	1.14B
Total Liabilities	8.58B	8.53B	8.66B	8.74B	7.13B	6.98B
Stockholders Equity	1.21B	1.15B	1.06B	949.94M	730.21M	647.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	76.35M	86.43M	103.09M	137.18M	166.47M	-6.31M
Operating Cash Flow	86.07M	108.48M	129.92M	145.65M	171.49M	887.00K
Investing Cash Flow	324.73M	231.94M	-130.03M	-455.99M	12.85M	-2.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-276.47M	-150.61M	-78.42M	-36.31M	144.07M	2.20B

Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 34.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.06, below the 50-day MA of 35.43, and below the 200-day MA of 35.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OBK.

Origin Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OCFC	74 Outperform	$1.02B	13.79	4.77%	4.38%	-2.15%	-25.32%
CTBI	70 Outperform	$938.67M	10.03	11.72%	3.79%	10.15%	17.67%
TMP	68 Neutral	$940.09M	11.05	11.20%	3.77%	9.55%	27.32%
PEBO	68 Neutral	$1.01B	9.94	8.75%	5.65%	0.11%	-18.63%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
OBK	66 Neutral	$1.08B	18.08	5.08%	1.75%	-6.41%	-21.17%
FSUN	61 Neutral	$923.29M	10.48	8.28%	―	4.01%	3.19%

Origin Bancorp Corporate Events

Origin Bancorp Reports Q3 2025 Earnings Highlights

Origin Bancorp, Inc., a financial holding company based in Ruston, Louisiana, operates through its subsidiary Origin Bank, offering a broad range of financial services across various states in the U.S. In its latest earnings report for the third quarter of 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. announced a net income of $8.6 million, a decrease from the previous quarter’s $14.6 million. Despite this decline, the company reported a significant increase in pre-tax, pre-provision earnings, reaching $47.8 million, driven by strategic initiatives under its ‘Optimize Origin’ program. Key financial metrics highlighted in the report include a rise in net interest income to $83.7 million, the highest in ten quarters, and an expansion of the net interest margin to 3.65%. The company also saw an increase in total deposits and a strategic investment in Argent Financial, enhancing its equity method investment income. Looking ahead, Origin Bancorp, Inc. remains focused on its strategic initiatives to drive financial performance and enhance shareholder value, with management expressing confidence in achieving their financial targets by the end of the year.

Origin Bancorp Clarifies Exposure to Tricolor Holdings

On October 23, 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. clarified its position regarding indirect exposure to Tricolor Holdings, LLC during an earnings call for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company reported having four residential mortgage loans to former Tricolor executives, totaling $16.2 million, with a weighted average loan-to-value of 58%. All loans are performing well, and the company does not anticipate any loss exposure, indicating a stable financial position despite the indirect connection to Tricolor.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBK) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Bancorp stock, see the OBK Stock Forecast page.

Origin Bancorp Announces Quarterly Dividend Amid Earnings Drop

On October 22, 2025, Origin Bancorp announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, to be paid on November 28, 2025. The company reported a net income of $8.6 million for the third quarter of 2025, a decrease from the previous quarter, but saw significant growth in pre-tax, pre-provision earnings. The company is executing its ‘Optimize Origin’ initiative, which has contributed to improvements in net interest income and overall financial performance. The initiative includes measures such as branch consolidation and capital optimization, aiming to enhance the company’s return on assets and financial standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBK) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Bancorp stock, see the OBK Stock Forecast page.

Origin Bancorp to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results

On October 10, 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results after market close on October 22, 2025, followed by an investor conference call on October 23, 2025. The call will be led by key executives including Drake Mills, William J. Wallace, IV, and Lance Hall. This announcement is part of Origin’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency with its stakeholders and provide insights into its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBK) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Bancorp stock, see the OBK Stock Forecast page.

Origin Bancorp Director Resigns Amid Tricolor Bankruptcy

On September 7, 2025, Daniel T. Chu resigned from the Board of Directors of Origin Bancorp and its subsidiary, Origin Bank, with no disagreements cited. Chu is the CEO of Tricolor Holdings, a customer of the bank, which has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Origin Bank has placed its $30.1 million loan commitments to Tricolor on non-accrual status and is assessing the collateral and potential credit losses, while planning to pursue remedies to protect its interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBK) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Bancorp stock, see the OBK Stock Forecast page.

Origin Bancorp’s Earnings Call: Optimism Amid Challenges

During the recent earnings call, Origin Bancorp, Inc. expressed a cautiously optimistic sentiment. The company reported strong performance in commercial and industrial (C&I) loan production, net interest margin expansion, and effective expense management, which contributed to a positive outlook. However, challenges such as maintaining loan and deposit growth and an increase in nonperforming loans were also highlighted. Overall, the positive achievements slightly outweighed the challenges, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future.

Origin Bancorp Reports Q2 2025 Earnings

Origin Bancorp, Inc., a financial holding company based in Ruston, Louisiana, operates through its subsidiary, Origin Bank, providing a wide range of financial services across several states including Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The company is known for its personalized relationship banking approach and operates over 55 locations.