Origin Bancorp (OBK)
NYSE:OBK
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Origin Bancorp
(NYSE:OBK)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$48.00
▲(6.60% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
OBK scores well primarily due to a strengthened balance sheet and a positive earnings-call outlook with clear growth and ROA targets. Technicals are supportive but mixed near-term, while valuation is only moderate with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Origin’s material deleveraging and steady equity growth underpin long-term financial flexibility. A much lower debt-to-equity ratio and rising tangible book provide loss-absorption capacity, support lending during cycles, enable buybacks/dividends, and reduce refinancing risk for the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Variability
Although operating cash flow was positive in 2025, multi-year negative free cash flow growth indicates inconsistent cash conversion. Variable FCF constrains longer-term reinvestment, reduces margin for unexpected credit losses or funding needs, and limits predictable capital returns during stress periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Origin’s material deleveraging and steady equity growth underpin long-term financial flexibility. A much lower debt-to-equity ratio and rising tangible book provide loss-absorption capacity, support lending during cycles, enable buybacks/dividends, and reduce refinancing risk for the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Origin Bancorp (OBK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.39B
Dividend Yield1.56%
Average Volume (3M)140.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.8
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth-6.29%
EPS Growth-21.17%
CountryUS
Employees1,031
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.95
Shares Outstanding30,981,298
10 Day Avg. Volume168,504
30 Day Avg. Volume140,536
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-12.61
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)1.93
P/FCF Ratio7.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.26
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.94
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.67Price Target Upside3.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$429.06M
Origin Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. It offers nonintere...
How the Company Makes Money
Origin Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from various fees and services. The key revenue streams include interest earned on commercial and consumer loans, mortgag...
Origin Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple clear financial and operational positives: the company beat its near-term ROA target, delivered solid earnings and pretax pre-provision performance, grew loan originations and fee income significantly, expanded NIM, strengthened capital metrics, and maintained generally sound credit metrics. Management also outlined disciplined but opportunistic growth plans (targeted banker hires and ~$10M investment) to capture market disruption. Headwinds discussed were manageable and largely timing- or investment-related: a modest sequential deposit dip (partly technical), brief margin timing pressure in Q1, modest expense increase from strategic hires and contract renegotiation fees, and small upticks in classified loans and short-term delinquencies. Overall, highlights materially outweighed the lowlights, and management conveyed confidence and momentum heading into 2026.Positive Updates
Achieved Targeted ROA Run Rate
Q4 run-rate return on average assets (ROA) was 1.19%, exceeding the near-term target of 1.0% and supporting management's Optimize Origin progress.
Negative Updates
Noninterest Income Pressures
Q4 noninterest income was $16.7 million; excluding notable items, it declined to $16.3 million from $17.1 million primarily due to reduced swap fee income and normal seasonality in the insurance segment.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Achieved Targeted ROA Run Rate
Q4 run-rate return on average assets (ROA) was 1.19%, exceeding the near-term target of 1.0% and supporting management's Optimize Origin progress.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to mid- to high-single-digit loan and deposit growth for 2026 (with loan growth weighted to the back half of the year) and plans to invest roughly $10 million in new bankers/teams (with additional “dry powder” possible), while targeting net interest income growth in the mid- to high-single-digits and full‑year noninterest income growth in the mid- to high-single-digits (Q4/Q4 ex-notables expected in the low‑ to mid-single-digits); net interest margin is expected to modestly compress in Q1 but finish Q4 in the 3.70%–3.80% range (guidance centered near 3.75% ±5 bps) assuming two 25 bp Fed cuts (March and June), and management expects a Q4 run‑rate ROA of at least 1.15% and a pretax pre‑provision run‑rate ROA in excess of 1.72%. They noted specific balance sheet drivers including ~$150M of securities rolling in 2026 (reinvestment spreads of ~50–75 bps) and $350M–$400M of loans maturing (avg yield ~4.8% with new yields in the low‑to‑mid 6s), Q1 noninterest expense run‑rate near $64M (+/‑ $1M) with mid‑single‑digit expense growth for the year (ex‑notables), and emphasized capital flexibility with tangible book value of $35.04, TCE ~11.3%, ~$145M sub‑debt redeemed and ~$16M common repurchased (while maintaining a ~20% of earnings dividend posture).Origin Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 598.60M | 616.80M | 576.69M | 377.78M | 290.46M |
| Gross Profit | 348.50M | 345.13M | 336.10M | 301.76M | 275.82M |
| EBITDA | 113.40M | 114.06M | 123.55M | 119.75M | 139.26M |
| Net Income | 75.20M | 76.49M | 83.80M | 87.72M | 108.55M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.72B | 9.68B | 9.72B | 9.69B | 7.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 104.19M | 1.57B | 1.53B | 2.00B | 2.21B |
| Total Debt | 35.59M | 172.40M | 277.88M | 841.00M | 467.22M |
| Total Liabilities | 8.48B | 8.53B | 8.66B | 8.74B | 7.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.25B | 1.15B | 1.06B | 949.94M | 730.21M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 151.05M | 86.43M | 103.09M | 137.18M | 166.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 158.92M | 108.48M | 129.92M | 145.65M | 171.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -113.69M | 231.94M | -130.03M | -455.99M | 12.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -91.27M | -150.61M | -78.42M | -36.31M | 144.07M |
Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
45.03
Price Trends
42.48
Positive
40.36
Positive
38.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.79
Negative
69.74
Neutral
93.00
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.80, above the 50-day MA of 42.48, and above the 200-day MA of 38.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OBK.
Origin Bancorp Risk Analysis
Origin Bancorp disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Origin Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Origin Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.39B | 9.79 | 5.08% | 1.56% | -6.29% | -21.17% | |
74 Outperform | $1.23B | 9.84 | 9.13% | 5.30% | 0.11% | -18.63% | |
72 Outperform | $1.17B | 9.33 | 11.96% | 3.44% | 9.93% | 17.67% | |
72 Outperform | $1.76B | 10.56 | 8.28% | ― | 4.44% | 3.19% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.22B | 6.42 | 11.20% | 3.39% | 9.55% | 27.32% | |
60 Neutral | $1.08B | 14.52 | 4.77% | 4.05% | -2.15% | -25.32% |
* Financial Sector Average
OBK
Origin Bancorp
45.03
15.33
51.64%
OCFC
Oceanfirst Financial
18.73
3.89
26.18%
PEBO
Peoples Bancorp
34.14
8.12
31.19%
TMP
Tompkins Financial Corporation
85.14
29.92
54.20%
CTBI
Community Bancorp
64.67
19.33
42.62%
FSUN
FirstSun Capital Bancorp
38.16
4.08
11.97%
Origin Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Origin Bancorp posts strong Q4 rebound and dividend
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Origin Bancorp reported a sharp rebound in profitability for the fourth quarter of 2025, with net income rising to $29.5 million, or $0.95 per diluted share, up from $8.6 million, or $0.27 per share, in the prior quarter, driv...
Financial Disclosures
Origin Bancorp Schedules Q4 2025 Earnings Release, Call
Neutral
Jan 9, 2026
On January 9, 2026, Origin Bancorp, Inc. announced it will release its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after markets close on January 28, 2026, and will discuss the numbers during an investor conference call and webcast on Janu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.