Origin Bancorp (OBK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.10B
• Dividend Yield: 1.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 164.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: -4.48%
• EPS Growth: -14.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,031
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.47
• Shares Outstanding: 31,224,718
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 267,422
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 164,886
• PEG Ratio: -1.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.58
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.46
• 1Y Price Target: $42.80
• Price Target Upside: 21.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $40.00 ▲(13.28% Upside)

Origin Bancorp's overall stock score reflects a stable financial performance with strong gross margins and cash flow management. The earnings call provided positive guidance on profitability improvements and operational efficiencies. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and valuation metrics indicate moderate attractiveness. The company faces challenges in revenue growth and profitability, which need addressing to enhance its financial health.

Origin Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. It offers noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, mortgage warehouse, residential mortgage, and paycheck protection program loans. The company also offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and Internet banking and voice response information, mobile applications, cash management, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit box, U.S. savings bonds, and automatic account transfer services; and treasury management, mortgage origination and servicing facilities, peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions, and personal financial management solutions. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Bancorp generates revenue primarily through net interest income, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Key revenue streams include commercial and consumer loans, mortgage originations, and various banking fees associated with account services, wire transfers, and ATM usage. Additionally, the company earns income from its wealth management services and investment products. Significant partnerships with local businesses and real estate developers further contribute to its earnings by providing tailored financial services that meet the specific needs of its clientele.

Origin Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Bancorp demonstrates a generally stable financial performance with strong gross margins and a conservative balance sheet. While revenue growth has recently turned negative, the company maintains efficient cost management and solid cash flow generation. Potential risks include declining profitability metrics and previous high leverage levels.

Income Statement

Origin Bancorp's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 58.33%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 11.93% from 12.40% in the previous year, reflecting a slight decline in profitability. Revenue growth has turned negative at -4.13%, which is a concern, although historical growth rates were positive. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also slightly decreased, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity has decreased to 5.98% from 6.68%, showing a slight decline in profitability from equity investments. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. However, the decline in ROE and the previous higher leverage levels pose potential risks.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trajectory with a 13.69% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.015, suggesting potential issues in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.86, reflecting good cash flow relative to earnings. Overall, cash flow management appears robust despite some conversion challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	585.05M	616.80M	576.69M	377.78M	290.46M	286.96M
Gross Profit	342.02M	345.13M	336.10M	301.76M	275.82M	189.89M
EBITDA	106.72M	114.06M	123.55M	119.75M	139.26M	51.23M
Net Income	69.93M	76.49M	83.80M	87.72M	108.55M	36.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.68B	9.68B	9.72B	9.69B	7.86B	7.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.11B	1.57B	1.53B	2.00B	2.21B	1.38B
Total Debt	217.50M	172.40M	277.88M	841.00M	467.22M	1.14B
Total Liabilities	8.47B	8.53B	8.66B	8.74B	7.13B	6.98B
Stockholders Equity	1.21B	1.15B	1.06B	949.94M	730.21M	647.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	108.59M	86.43M	103.09M	137.18M	166.47M	-6.31M
Operating Cash Flow	125.65M	108.48M	129.92M	145.65M	171.49M	887.00K
Investing Cash Flow	314.71M	231.94M	-130.03M	-455.99M	12.85M	-2.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-394.29M	-150.61M	-78.42M	-36.31M	144.07M	2.20B

Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 35.31
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.93, below the 50-day MA of 36.99, and below the 200-day MA of 35.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OBK.

Origin Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CTBI	79 Outperform	1.02B	11.04	11.34%	3.46%	10.85%	17.66%
PEBO	73 Outperform	1.08B	10.36	5.08%	5.35%	2.33%	-16.87%
OCFC	72 Outperform	1.03B	12.77	5.33%	4.47%	-0.91%	-14.86%
TMP	72 Outperform	992.75M	12.39	9.93%	3.63%	31.82%	460.57%
OBK	69 Neutral	$1.10B	15.97	6.08%	1.70%	-4.48%	-14.67%
FSUN	69 Neutral	1.10B	12.65	8.10%	―	6.59%	-3.66%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Origin Bancorp Corporate Events

Origin Bancorp Director Resigns Amid Tricolor Bankruptcy

On September 7, 2025, Daniel T. Chu resigned from the Board of Directors of Origin Bancorp and its subsidiary, Origin Bank, with no disagreements cited. Chu is the CEO of Tricolor Holdings, a customer of the bank, which has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Origin Bank has placed its $30.1 million loan commitments to Tricolor on non-accrual status and is assessing the collateral and potential credit losses, while planning to pursue remedies to protect its interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBK) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Origin Bancorp stock, see the OBK Stock Forecast page.