Origin Bancorp (OBK) AI Stock Analysis

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Origin Bancorp

(NYSE:OBK)

72Outperform

Origin Bancorp's overall stock score reflects a mixed but stable financial performance, with solid cash flow and strategic improvements in interest margin and deposit growth. However, profitability challenges, increasing non-performing loans, and economic uncertainties weigh on the outlook. Technical indicators suggest cautious trading conditions, while valuation metrics indicate a fair price relative to its peers.

Origin Bancorp (OBK) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$987.00M

Dividend Yield1.9%

Average Volume (3M)159.11K

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.0

Beta (1Y)1.10

Revenue Growth1.00%

EPS Growth-7.88%

CountryUS

Employees1,031

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength85

IndustryBanks - Regional

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)2.44

Shares Outstanding31,244,005

10 Day Avg. Volume168,405

30 Day Avg. Volume159,114

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)3.15

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)9.20

P/FCF Ratio3.50

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.91

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$41.50

Price Target Upside30.18% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

Origin Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOrigin Bancorp, Inc. (OBK) is a financial holding company headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana. It operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Origin Bank, which provides a broad range of consumer, commercial, and wealth management financial services. The bank offers traditional banking products such as checking and savings accounts, personal and business loans, mortgages, and Treasury management services with a focus on personalized customer service and community-oriented banking solutions.

How the Company Makes MoneyOrigin Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investment securities, as well as non-interest income from fees and service charges. Interest income is derived from the interest charged on consumer and commercial loans, mortgages, and other credit products. Non-interest income includes fees from services like wealth management, deposit account maintenance, and transaction processing. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and community-based initiatives that enhance its market presence and customer base. Origin Bancorp is dedicated to building strong relationships with clients, which contributes to its stable revenue streams.

Origin Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Bancorp shows a mixed financial performance. The income statement highlights revenue growth in 2024 but faces profitability challenges. The balance sheet reflects improved leverage but high liabilities pose a risk. Cash flow performance is strong, indicating effective cash generation and management.

Income Statement

Positive

Origin Bancorp shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The Gross Profit Margin remains robust at 100%, which is typical for banking due to the nature of revenue recognition. However, the Net Profit Margin has seen fluctuations, with a decrease from 2022 to 2024, indicating profitability challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant increase in 2024 but slight declines in prior years. The EBIT Margin has improved significantly in 2024, signaling better operational efficiency despite previous volatility.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet reflects a stable equity base with a positive Equity Ratio, enhancing financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio has improved over time, showing reduced financial leverage. However, the total liabilities remain high relative to assets, which poses a risk of financial strain. The Return on Equity has been declining, which might concern investors regarding the company's ability to generate returns on shareholder investments.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement indicates strong performance with consistent positive Operating Cash Flow, showcasing the company's ability to generate cash from operations effectively. The Free Cash Flow has seen significant improvement in 2024, reflecting better cash management and operational efficiency. However, Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio shows variability, suggesting inconsistencies in cash conversion against net income.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
564.59M	341.14M	332.55M	278.44M	250.13M
	Gross Profit
564.59M	581.32M	332.55M	278.44M	250.13M
	EBIT
558.43M	139.67M	107.44M	132.43M	44.35M
	EBITDA
0.00	0.00	119.75M	139.26M	45.76M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
76.49M	83.80M	87.72M	108.55M	36.36M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
204.63M	279.58M	2.00B	2.21B	1.38B
	Total Assets
9.68B	9.72B	9.69B	7.86B	7.63B
	Total Debt
166.14M	270.75M	841.00M	467.22M	1.14B
	Net Debt
-132.99M	-9.69M	482.02M	-238.40M	764.58M
	Total Liabilities
8.53B	8.66B	8.74B	467.22M	6.98B
	Stockholders Equity
1.15B	1.06B	949.94M	730.21M	647.15M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
25.00M	103.09M	137.18M	166.47M	-6.31M
	Operating Cash Flow
25.00M	129.92M	145.65M	171.49M	887.00K
	Investing Cash Flow
-13.36M	-130.03M	-455.99M	12.85M	-2.12B
	Financing Cash Flow
-51.47M	-78.42M	-36.31M	144.07M	2.20B

Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price31.88

Price Trends

50DMA

34.81

Negative

100DMA

35.25

Negative

200DMA

33.87

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.01

Negative

RSI

44.79

Neutral

STOCH

60.39

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 31.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.38, below the 50-day MA of 34.81, and below the 200-day MA of 33.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OBK.

Origin Bancorp Risk Analysis

Origin Bancorp disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Origin Bancorp reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Origin Bancorp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PEBO	73 Outperform	$1.02B	9.07	10.12%	5.59%	7.34%	-4.94%
PFBC	73 Outperform	$1.07B	8.31	17.21%	3.56%	0.94%	-8.61%
BFC	73 Outperform	$1.10B	16.18	10.83%	1.50%	18.79%	-11.25%
OCFC	73 Outperform	$966.20M	10.83	5.51%	4.83%	1.38%	-10.46%
OBK	72 Outperform	$987.00M	12.97	6.75%	1.90%	1.00%	-7.88%
FSUN	70 Outperform	$923.37M	12.35	7.88%	―	13.26%	-33.68%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$12.38B	9.57	7.87%	79.17%	12.62%	-4.94%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

OBK

Origin Bancorp

31.88

2.26

7.63%

OCFC

Oceanfirst Financial

16.46

2.16

15.10%

PEBO

Peoples Bancorp

29.10

1.09

3.89%

PFBC

Preferred Bank

79.64

6.35

8.66%

BFC

Bank First National

110.17

33.85

44.35%

FSUN

FirstSun Capital Bancorp

36.04

1.72

5.01%

Origin Bancorp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 0.44%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlights a strong performance in net interest margin expansion, deposit growth, and employee engagement. However, there are notable concerns regarding increased past due and non-performing loans, as well as pressures on non-interest income due to restructuring. The optimism for loan growth is tempered by economic uncertainty.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Net Interest Margin Expansion

Net interest margin expanded by 11 basis points during the quarter to 3.44%, ahead of expectations. The company increased its margin guidance by 5 basis points to 3.50% for the fourth quarter of 2025.

Deposit Growth

Deposits excluding brokered grew 7.2% on an annualized basis. Non-interest-bearing deposits saw their first year-over-year growth since Q4 2022.

Loan Growth and Portfolio Optimization

Despite macroeconomic challenges, the company still anticipates mid to high-single-digit loan growth in 2025. They achieved approximately $50 million in desired reductions, bringing total targeted reductions to approximately $200 million over the past four quarters.

Employee Engagement and Culture

The company reported high levels of employee engagement, well within the global top 10% benchmark, indicating strong alignment with strategic goals.

Tangible Book Value and Capital Ratios

Tangible book value grew sequentially to $32.43, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth. The TCE ratio ended the quarter at 10.6%.

Negative Updates

Increase in Past Due and Non-Performing Loans

Past due loans held for investment increased to 0.96% from 0.56%. Non-performing loans increased $6.4 million for the quarter to 1.07% from 0.99%.

Pressure on Non-Interest Income

Non-interest income is expected to decline by $400,000 to $500,000 quarterly beginning in Q3 due to changes in the mortgage business.

Economic Uncertainty and Impact on Loan Growth

Due to macroeconomic uncertainty and recent policy announcements, loan growth expectations have been adjusted to the lower end of the guided range.

Company Guidance

During Origin Bancorp Inc.'s first quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, the company provided detailed guidance on several key financial metrics. Origin Bancorp's strategic plan, Optimize Origin, aims to achieve a return on assets (ROA) run rate of 1% or greater by the fourth quarter of 2025, with a long-term goal of reaching the top quartile of peers. The company expects an annual pre-tax earnings improvement of approximately $1.5 million from restructuring its mortgage business. In the first quarter, net interest margin expanded to 3.44%, with net interest income improving quarter-over-quarter. The annualized ROA was reported at 93 basis points. Deposit growth was strong, with deposits excluding brokered deposits growing at an annualized rate of 7.2%. The company also identified $50 million in desired reductions in past relationships, bringing total targeted reductions to $200 million over the past year. Classified loans increased slightly to 1.68% of total loans, while net charge-offs for the quarter were $2.7 million, or 0.15% on an annualized basis. Tangible book value grew to $32.43, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of linked quarter growth, and the TCE ratio ended at 10.6%. Origin remains focused on loan growth, maintaining guidance for mid to high-single-digit growth in 2025, and adjusting deposit strategies to support this growth.

Origin Bancorp Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Origin Bancorp to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results

Neutral

Apr 10, 2025

On April 10, 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results after market close on April 23, 2025, followed by an investor conference call on April 24, 2025. The call, hosted by key executives, will discuss the company’s financial performance and operations, potentially impacting stakeholders’ insights into the company’s market positioning and future strategies.

Spark’s Take on OBK Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, OBK is a Neutral.

Origin Bancorp’s overall score of 67 reflects a balanced view of strengths and challenges. The financial performance is bolstered by strong cash flow and revenue growth but offset by high liabilities and profitability concerns. Technical analysis indicates caution with downward momentum. Valuation metrics show moderate market expectations, while the earnings call suggests strategic initiatives for future growth amidst current portfolio challenges.

To see Spark’s full report on OBK stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Origin Bancorp Announces Board Reduction for 2025

Neutral

Mar 3, 2025

On March 3, 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. announced that five members of its Board of Directors will not stand for reelection at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, reducing the Board size from 16 to 11 directors. This strategic move aligns with governance best practices and aims to create a more efficient Board to support the company’s strategy and future growth. The decision is not due to any disagreements and reflects the Board’s commitment to optimal governance as recommended by its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.