Origin Bancorp (OBK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.20B
• Dividend Yield: 1.54%
• Average Volume (3M): 140.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: -6.29%
• EPS Growth: -21.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,031
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.27
• Shares Outstanding: 30,972,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 166,805
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 140,319
• PEG Ratio: -1.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.63
• 1Y Price Target: $42.67
• Price Target Upside: 9.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.31
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $391.51M

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $42.00 ▲(8.05% Upside)

Origin Bancorp's overall stock score reflects a solid financial foundation with strong cash flow and a stable balance sheet. The technical analysis indicates bullish momentum, but the valuation suggests potential overvaluation. The earnings call provided a balanced view with both positive growth indicators and notable challenges.

Positive Factors

Loan Origination Growth

The increase in loan originations indicates strong demand for the bank's lending services, which can drive future revenue growth and strengthen market position.

Net Interest Margin Improvement

Improvement in net interest margin suggests better profitability from lending activities, enhancing the bank's earnings potential over the long term.

Cash Flow Growth

Strong cash flow growth enhances financial flexibility, allowing the company to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt effectively.

Negative Factors

Declining Profitability

The decline in net profit margin indicates pressure on profitability, which could affect the company's ability to generate sustainable earnings growth.

Increased Nonperforming Assets

Rising nonperforming assets suggest potential credit quality issues, which may lead to higher provisions and impact future profitability.

Loan Balance Decline

A decline in loan balances can limit interest income growth, impacting revenue and profitability if not reversed.

Origin Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. It offers noninterest and interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, money market accounts, and time deposits; and offers commercial real estate, construction and land development, consumer, residential real estate, commercial and industrial, mortgage warehouse, residential mortgage, and paycheck protection program loans. The company also offers personal and commercial property, and casualty insurance products; and Internet banking and voice response information, mobile applications, cash management, overdraft protection, direct deposit, safe deposit box, U.S. savings bonds, and automatic account transfer services; and treasury management, mortgage origination and servicing facilities, peer-to-peer electronic pay solutions, and personal financial management solutions. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Origin Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investments, as well as non-interest income from various fees and services. The key revenue streams include interest earned on commercial and consumer loans, mortgage origination fees, and service charges on deposit accounts. Additionally, the bank benefits from wealth management services and treasury management solutions provided to its commercial clients. Origin Bancorp also engages in strategic partnerships and community-oriented initiatives to enhance customer loyalty and expand its market presence, contributing to its overall earnings.

Origin Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Origin Bancorp demonstrates a solid financial foundation with strong cash flow and a stable balance sheet. However, declining profitability and revenue growth in the TTM period raise concerns about future earnings potential. The company maintains low leverage, which is a positive, but needs to address the declining return on equity and improve operational efficiency to enhance profitability.

Income Statement

Origin Bancorp's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is strong at 58.79%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 10.69% from 14.53% in 2023, reflecting reduced profitability. Revenue growth has turned negative at -4.18% in the TTM, a concern given the previous positive growth trend. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, suggesting pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.084 in the TTM, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity has decreased to 5.05%, showing reduced efficiency in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a strong capital base. The overall stability is good, but the declining ROE is a point of concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a 22.59% growth in free cash flow in the TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 86.43%, highlighting strong cash conversion. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, which limits a full assessment of cash flow efficiency. Overall, cash flow performance is strong, supporting financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	586.29M	616.80M	576.69M	377.78M	290.46M	286.96M
Gross Profit	328.06M	345.13M	336.10M	301.76M	275.82M	189.89M
EBITDA	93.82M	114.06M	123.55M	119.75M	139.26M	51.23M
Net Income	59.95M	76.49M	83.80M	87.72M	108.55M	36.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.79B	9.68B	9.72B	9.69B	7.86B	7.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.38B	1.57B	1.53B	2.00B	2.21B	1.38B
Total Debt	102.50M	172.40M	277.88M	841.00M	467.22M	1.14B
Total Liabilities	8.58B	8.53B	8.66B	8.74B	7.13B	6.98B
Stockholders Equity	1.21B	1.15B	1.06B	949.94M	730.21M	647.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	133.12M	86.43M	103.09M	137.18M	166.47M	-6.31M
Operating Cash Flow	145.37M	108.48M	129.92M	145.65M	171.49M	887.00K
Investing Cash Flow	436.82M	231.94M	-130.03M	-455.99M	12.85M	-2.12B
Financing Cash Flow	-276.47M	-150.61M	-78.42M	-36.31M	144.07M	2.20B

Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 38.87
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.68, above the 50-day MA of 35.58, and above the 200-day MA of 35.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OBK.

Origin Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CTBI	77 Outperform	$1.06B	11.35	11.72%	3.41%	9.93%	17.67%
PEBO	77 Outperform	$1.12B	10.94	8.75%	5.21%	0.11%	-18.63%
FSUN	76 Outperform	$1.09B	12.35	8.28%	―	4.44%	3.19%
OCFC	75 Outperform	$1.15B	15.51	4.77%	3.98%	-2.15%	-25.32%
OBK	74 Outperform	$1.20B	20.33	5.08%	1.54%	-6.29%	-21.17%
TMP	70 Outperform	$1.08B	12.74	11.20%	3.34%	9.55%	27.32%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Origin Bancorp Corporate Events

Origin Bancorp Clarifies Exposure to Tricolor Holdings

On October 23, 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. clarified its position regarding indirect exposure to Tricolor Holdings, LLC during an earnings call for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company reported having four residential mortgage loans to former Tricolor executives, totaling $16.2 million, with a weighted average loan-to-value of 58%. All loans are performing well, and the company does not anticipate any loss exposure, indicating a stable financial position despite the indirect connection to Tricolor.

Origin Bancorp Announces Quarterly Dividend Amid Earnings Drop

On October 22, 2025, Origin Bancorp announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, to be paid on November 28, 2025. The company reported a net income of $8.6 million for the third quarter of 2025, a decrease from the previous quarter, but saw significant growth in pre-tax, pre-provision earnings. The company is executing its ‘Optimize Origin’ initiative, which has contributed to improvements in net interest income and overall financial performance. The initiative includes measures such as branch consolidation and capital optimization, aiming to enhance the company’s return on assets and financial standing.

Origin Bancorp to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results

On October 10, 2025, Origin Bancorp, Inc. announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results after market close on October 22, 2025, followed by an investor conference call on October 23, 2025. The call will be led by key executives including Drake Mills, William J. Wallace, IV, and Lance Hall. This announcement is part of Origin’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency with its stakeholders and provide insights into its financial performance.

Origin Bancorp Director Resigns Amid Tricolor Bankruptcy

On September 7, 2025, Daniel T. Chu resigned from the Board of Directors of Origin Bancorp and its subsidiary, Origin Bank, with no disagreements cited. Chu is the CEO of Tricolor Holdings, a customer of the bank, which has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. Origin Bank has placed its $30.1 million loan commitments to Tricolor on non-accrual status and is assessing the collateral and potential credit losses, while planning to pursue remedies to protect its interests.