Origin Bancorp (OBK)
NYSE:OBK
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Origin Bancorp
(NYSE:OBK)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$53.00
▲(15.72% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
OBK scores well on financial resilience (stronger balance sheet and solid cash generation) and supportive technical momentum, with a favorable earnings-call outlook on growth, NIM trajectory, and shareholder returns. The main constraints are the recent TTM revenue decline and moderate profitability, plus competitive funding/fee headwinds noted on the call.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet strength
Origin’s capital structure is materially stronger: debt-to-equity about 0.02 and tangible equity growth provide a durable loss-absorption buffer. A well-capitalized balance sheet supports cautious loan growth, regulatory flexibility, capital returns and resilience through credit cycles, protecting long-term franchise value.
Negative Factors
TTM revenue decline
A substantial TTM revenue decline reduces operating leverage and scale, pressuring the bank’s ability to restore prior margin and ROE peaks. Absent sustained loan and fee growth, lower top-line momentum can constrain EPS recovery, limit reinvestment capacity and prolong return-to-target profitability levels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet strength
Origin’s capital structure is materially stronger: debt-to-equity about 0.02 and tangible equity growth provide a durable loss-absorption buffer. A well-capitalized balance sheet supports cautious loan growth, regulatory flexibility, capital returns and resilience through credit cycles, protecting long-term franchise value.
Read all positive factors
Origin Bancorp (OBK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.46B
Dividend Yield1.56%
Average Volume (3M)140.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth-2.72%
EPS Growth5.89%
CountryUS
Employees1,031
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.60
Shares Outstanding30,904,093
10 Day Avg. Volume168,504
30 Day Avg. Volume140,536
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-12.61
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)1.93
P/FCF Ratio7.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$51.33Price Target Upside12.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$433.01M
Origin Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Origin Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Origin Bank that provides banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities, and retail clients in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. It offers nonintere...
How the Company Makes Money
Origin Bancorp primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by generating net interest income and earning noninterest income. Net interest income is driven by interest and fee income earned on loans (e.g., commercial, real estate, and cons...
Origin Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed constructive momentum: disciplined, mid- to high-single-digit loan and deposit growth, improved ROA momentum (Q1 ROA 1.11%) and stable credit metrics, combined with capital actions (dividend increase, buybacks) and strategic hires to support future scale. Offsetting items were modest NIM compression (2 bps), noninterest income headwinds from $3.3 million in LP losses, a moderate rise in nonperforming/classified assets, expense growth as the company reinvests, and competitive deposit pricing. Overall, the positives — revenue and balance sheet growth, capital strength, credit discipline, and strategic investments — outweigh the headwinds, supporting a favorable outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Loan Growth
Loans held for investment (ex. mortgage warehouse) increased $200 million, or 2.8% quarter-over-quarter (loans grew 2.5% sequentially on the reported basis). Growth was driven primarily by CNI activity in Texas and the Southeast.
Negative Updates
Slight NIM Compression and Sensitivity to Fed Cuts
Net interest margin compressed 2 basis points to 3.71% in Q1. Guidance assumes two 25-basis-point Fed cuts (July and December); NIM and NII outcomes would be sensitive to the timing and existence of cuts, although management noted limited material downside if cuts do not occur.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Loan Growth
Loans held for investment (ex. mortgage warehouse) increased $200 million, or 2.8% quarter-over-quarter (loans grew 2.5% sequentially on the reported basis). Growth was driven primarily by CNI activity in Texas and the Southeast.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated mid- to high-single-digit targets for loan and deposit growth for the year (tracking to the higher end after Q1), highlighted Q1 loan growth of 2.5% sequentially (2.8% excl. mortgage warehouse; loans HFI excl. warehouse +$200M, 2.8% q/q) and deposit growth of 5.4% (2.8% excl. a $215M year‑end deposit sale), NIBs up 4.2% to 23.6% of deposits, and said new-loan pricing in Q1 was roughly 6.3%–6.5%; NIM was 3.71% in Q1 (down 2 bps), is expected to bounce ~10 bps in Q2 and finish Q4 in the 3.7%–3.8% range (current bias toward the high end) assuming two 25‑bp Fed cuts (July, December), with net interest income growth still expected mid‑ to high‑single digits; pretax pre‑provision earnings were $40.2M ($40.8M ex‑notables) with annualized pretax pre‑provision ROA ~1.61% and a targeted pretax pre‑provision run‑rate ROA in excess of 1.72% and run‑rate ROA of at least 1.15% in Q4; noninterest income was $16.8M ($16.4M ex‑notables) with full‑year fee growth targeted mid‑ to high‑single digits, noninterest expense $63.8M ($62.8M ex‑notables) with mid‑single‑digit expense growth guidance, diluted EPS $0.89 (Q1 impact of notable items ~$0.01), tangible book $35.61 (14th consecutive quarter of growth), TCE 11%, 165,500 shares repurchased and quarterly dividend raised from $0.15 to $0.25; credit metrics were characterized as sound with ACL $99M (1.34% of loans excl. warehouse), past dues 30–89 days 0.22%, net charge‑offs $2.8M (annualized 0.15%), NPAs 1.12% and classified assets 1.97%.Origin Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 597.45M | 598.60M | 616.80M | 576.69M | 377.78M | 290.46M |
| Gross Profit | 355.87M | 348.50M | 345.13M | 336.10M | 301.76M | 275.82M |
| EBITDA | 114.87M | 113.40M | 114.06M | 123.55M | 119.75M | 139.26M |
| Net Income | 80.48M | 75.20M | 76.49M | 83.80M | 87.72M | 108.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.19B | 9.72B | 9.68B | 9.72B | 9.69B | 7.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 121.83M | 104.19M | 1.57B | 1.53B | 2.00B | 2.21B |
| Total Debt | 29.18M | 35.59M | 172.40M | 277.88M | 841.00M | 467.22M |
| Total Liabilities | 8.93B | 8.48B | 8.53B | 8.66B | 8.74B | 7.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.26B | 1.25B | 1.15B | 1.06B | 949.94M | 730.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 164.16M | 151.05M | 86.43M | 103.09M | 137.18M | 166.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 176.24M | 158.92M | 108.48M | 129.92M | 145.65M | 171.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -299.89M | -113.69M | 231.94M | -130.03M | -455.99M | 12.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 303.65M | -91.27M | -150.61M | -78.42M | -36.31M | 144.07M |
Origin Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
45.80
Price Trends
44.20
Positive
42.79
Positive
39.27
Positive
Market Momentum
0.63
Positive
59.94
Neutral
92.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.53, above the 50-day MA of 44.20, and above the 200-day MA of 39.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OBK.
Origin Bancorp Risk Analysis
Origin Bancorp disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Origin Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Origin Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $1.46B | 11.58 | 6.53% | 1.56% | -2.72% | 5.89% | |
77 Outperform | $1.24B | 9.95 | 9.37% | 5.30% | 0.38% | -1.41% | |
75 Outperform | $1.23B | 10.77 | 19.50% | 3.39% | -12.54% | 126.82% | |
73 Outperform | $1.21B | 10.08 | 12.27% | 3.44% | 8.48% | 19.55% | |
70 Outperform | $1.08B | 12.55 | 4.22% | 4.05% | 2.01% | -23.22% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.56B | 11.76 | 8.43% | ― | 6.06% | 9.55% |
* Financial Sector Average
OBK
Origin Bancorp
47.32
14.44
43.92%
OCFC
Oceanfirst Financial
18.72
2.83
17.78%
PEBO
Peoples Bancorp
34.54
6.81
24.58%
TMP
Tompkins Financial Corporation
85.80
27.33
46.74%
CTBI
Community Bancorp
66.70
17.69
36.10%
FSUN
FirstSun Capital Bancorp
35.44
-1.07
-2.93%
Origin Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Origin Bancorp Expands into Birmingham with New Leadership
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
Origin Bancorp, Inc., the holding company for Origin Bank, continued its Southeast expansion on April 29, 2026, by entering the Birmingham, Alabama market and naming veteran local banker Will Hawkins as Birmingham Market Leader. The move adds an e...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Origin Bancorp Shareholders Reinforce Governance and Compensation Framework
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
At its April 22, 2026 annual meeting in Choudrant, La., Origin Bancorp shareholders elected 10 directors to serve until the 2026 annual meeting, with all nominees receiving sufficient support despite some higher opposition for certain board member...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Origin Bancorp Boosts Dividend Despite Slight Earnings Decline
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
Origin Bancorp reported first-quarter 2026 net income of $27.7 million, or $0.89 per diluted share, down from $29.5 million, or $0.95 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2025, while pre-tax, pre-provision earnings held essentially flat at ...
Financial Disclosures
Origin Bancorp Schedules First-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release
Neutral
Apr 10, 2026
Origin Bancorp, Inc., a Louisiana-based financial holding company and parent of Origin Bank, offers relationship-focused banking services and a broad suite of financial products to business, municipal and personal clients across multiple Southern ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.