Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.46B
• Dividend Yield: 12.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.96M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 5.55%
• EPS Growth: -12.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 511,048,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,997,360
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,956,496
• PEG Ratio: -0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 36.81
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.41
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 23.36
• 1Y Price Target: $14.19
• Price Target Upside: 12.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $14.00 ▲(10.67% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a constructive earnings-call read (strong NII/ROE and low nonaccruals, supported by a share repurchase program). Valuation is also favorable with a low P/E and very high yield. Offsetting these positives, technical indicators are weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), and leverage plus historical cash-flow/revenue volatility increase risk.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Performance

Consistent strong financial performance indicates robust operational efficiency and profitability, supporting long-term business sustainability.

Successful Merger and Increased Scale

The merger enhances scale and market position, providing operational synergies and improved liquidity, strengthening competitive advantage.

Increase in Direct Lending

Significant growth in direct lending expands revenue streams and solidifies market position, ensuring long-term growth potential.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue indicates potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum, which could impact long-term financial health.

Cash Flow Fluctuations

Inconsistent cash flow generation can strain financial stability and limit the ability to fund future investments or operations.

Disappointing M&A Deal Flow

Weak M&A activity may hinder strategic growth initiatives and limit expansion opportunities, affecting long-term competitive positioning.

Blue Owl Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Owl Rock Capital Corporation is a business development company. The fund makes investments in senior secured or unsecured loans, subordinated loans or mezzanine loans and also considers equity-related securities including warrants and preferred stocks also pursues preferred equity investments and common equity investments. Within private equity, it seeks to invest in growth, acquisitions, market or product expansion, refinancings and recapitalizations. It seeks to invest in middle market companies based in the United States, with EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million annually and/or annual revenue of $50 million and $2.5 billion at the time of investment.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Owl Capital makes money through a diversified revenue model that primarily includes management fees, performance-based fees, and investment income. The firm generates management fees by overseeing and managing assets for its clients across its various funds and investment vehicles. Performance-based fees are earned when the investments outperform certain benchmarks, aligning the firm's interests with those of its investors. Additionally, Blue Owl Capital earns investment income through the appreciation and returns on its proprietary investments and portfolio holdings. The firm's revenue is further supported by strategic partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions, enhancing its ability to access capital and investment opportunities.

Blue Owl Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recent TTM profitability and cash flow (about $1.0B operating cash flow/FCF) and sharp TTM revenue growth, but multi-year volatility in revenue and cash generation plus rising leverage (debt ~$9.5B; historically ~1.2x debt-to-equity) elevates risk in weaker credit conditions.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show strong revenue expansion (+181%) with solid profitability (about 67% gross margin, ~57% operating margin, and ~46% net margin). That said, the annual history is choppy: revenue declined in 2024 and 2022, and profitability margins swing materially year-to-year (including unusually high net margins in 2020–2022), which reduces confidence in the stability of earnings power.

Balance Sheet

The company operates with meaningful leverage: total debt increased to ~$9.5B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~$7.5B in 2024, while equity rose to ~$7.6B. Returns on equity are decent and fairly consistent (~8%–13% across years), but the step-up in debt and the historically elevated debt-to-equity levels (around ~1.2x in recent annual periods) point to higher balance-sheet risk if credit conditions tighten.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is currently strong, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow both at ~$1.0B and improving sharply versus 2024’s much lower ~$160M. However, cash flow has been volatile historically, including large negative operating/free cash flow in 2020 and 2021, which suggests sensitivity to timing, portfolio/funding dynamics, or working-capital swings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.27B	1.10B	1.27B	808.76M	882.31M	438.92M
Gross Profit	742.36M	665.75M	864.33M	535.63M	689.66M	302.53M
EBITDA	675.54M	607.34M	810.68M	476.13M	637.50M	393.44M
Net Income	663.21M	594.98M	793.31M	466.36M	624.88M	387.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	17.61B	13.87B	13.51B	13.58B	13.30B	11.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	274.30M	431.77M	572.59M	348.67M	425.66M	349.07M
Total Debt	9.53B	7.46B	7.08B	7.28B	7.08B	5.29B
Total Liabilities	9.99B	7.91B	7.49B	7.70B	7.36B	5.56B
Stockholders Equity	7.61B	5.95B	6.02B	5.88B	5.94B	5.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.01B	160.22M	514.37M	423.79M	-1.23B	-1.56B
Operating Cash Flow	1.01B	160.22M	514.37M	423.79M	-1.23B	-1.56B
Investing Cash Flow	357.68M	0.00	621.24M	-206.52M	0.00	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	-1.52B	-305.72M	-921.04M	-219.33M	1.32B	1.60B

Blue Owl Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.65
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBDC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.64, below the 50-day MA of 12.68, and below the 200-day MA of 13.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OBDC.

Blue Owl Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OMF	79 Outperform	$7.84B	11.27	21.41%	6.07%	9.51%	29.38%
NNI	78 Outperform	$4.93B	11.56	12.27%	0.87%	9.14%	291.99%
FCFS	74 Outperform	$7.28B	23.81	14.75%	0.99%	3.86%	28.06%
OBDC	70 Outperform	$6.46B	8.84	9.77%	12.83%	5.55%	-12.79%
CACC	68 Neutral	$5.14B	12.22	28.14%	―	10.30%	154.64%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SLM	67 Neutral	$5.43B	9.45	27.85%	1.88%	0.59%	-1.11%

Blue Owl Capital Corporate Events

Blue Owl Capital Executives Buy $115M in Stock

In November, Blue Owl Capital Corporation saw over $115 million in its common stock purchased by its executives and employees, as well as through its share repurchase program. The company is authorized to repurchase up to $200 million of its common stock, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBDC) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Owl Capital stock, see the OBDC Stock Forecast page.

Blue Owl Capital Terminates Merger Amid Market Volatility

On November 18, 2025, Blue Owl Capital Corporation and Blue Owl Capital Corporation II decided to terminate their planned merger due to current market volatility, despite previous analysis suggesting the merger would create long-term value. The decision reflects the boards’ commitment to shareholder interests and follows management’s recommendation. OBDC II plans to reinstate its tender program in early 2026, having achieved significant investment returns since its inception. Meanwhile, OBDC’s $200 million share repurchase program remains active.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBDC) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Owl Capital stock, see the OBDC Stock Forecast page.

Blue Owl Capital Announces Merger and Stock Repurchase

On November 5, 2025, Blue Owl Capital Corporation and Blue Owl Capital Corporation II announced a definitive merger agreement, with OBDC as the surviving company. The merger, approved by both companies’ boards, aims to enhance OBDC’s position as the second-largest publicly traded BDC by total assets, increasing its investment portfolio by $1.7 billion to approximately $18.9 billion. The merger is expected to generate $5 million in operational cost savings in the first year and improve shareholder liquidity and investment opportunities. Additionally, OBDC’s board approved a new repurchase program on November 4, 2025, allowing the repurchase of up to $200 million of its common stock over 18 months.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBDC) stock is a Buy with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Owl Capital stock, see the OBDC Stock Forecast page.