Blue Owl Capital (OBDC)
NYSE:OBDC
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Blue Owl Capital
(NYSE:OBDC)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(14.68% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is driven primarily by attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield) and a generally constructive earnings-call backdrop (portfolio validation, buybacks, liquidity), offset by only middling financial statement quality due to volatility/leverage and weak technicals with the stock trading below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Scale & origination platform
A large direct-lending platform and high origination volume provide durable competitive advantages: superior deal flow, selective underwriting, diversified exposure and fee generation. Scale supports sourcing cost efficiency and the ability to allocate across market cycles, strengthening long-term income potential.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage and reporting discontinuity
Historically material leverage amplifies downside in stress and makes earnings sensitive to credit losses. The 2025 reporting discontinuity (reported zero debt) reduces trend comparability and increases uncertainty about true structural leverage and funding risk for investors assessing medium-term stability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & origination platform
A large direct-lending platform and high origination volume provide durable competitive advantages: superior deal flow, selective underwriting, diversified exposure and fee generation. Scale supports sourcing cost efficiency and the ability to allocate across market cycles, strengthening long-term income potential.
Read all positive factors
Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.44B
Dividend Yield12.83%
Average Volume (3M)7.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth5.55%
EPS Growth-12.79%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.38
Shares Outstanding499,448,500
10 Day Avg. Volume6,543,518
30 Day Avg. Volume7,244,230
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.53
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)3.75
P/FCF Ratio3.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.10Price Target Upside29.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.69B
Blue Owl Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Owl Rock Capital Corporation is a business development company. The fund makes investments in senior secured or unsecured loans, subordinated loans or mezzanine loans and also considers equity-related securities including warrants and preferred st...
How the Company Makes Money
Blue Owl Capital makes money through a diversified revenue model that primarily includes management fees, performance-based fees, and investment income. The firm generates management fees by overseeing and managing assets for its clients across it...
Blue Owl Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong validations of portfolio quality: a $1.4B asset sale executed at ~99.7% of book value, a sizable accretive share buyback, a Moody's upgrade, healthy portfolio revenue/EBITDA growth, low nonaccruals and ample liquidity. These operational and credit strengths were tempered by macro-driven headwinds—lower base rates, ~30 bps spread compression, modest NAV decline and public-market skepticism that keeps the shares trading at a notable discount. Management has taken decisive capital-allocation actions (sales, buybacks, deleveraging) to position the fund for opportunities and to return capital to investors. Overall, the positive validations and proactive actions outweigh the challenges, though rate/spread trends and market sentiment remain watchpoints.Positive Updates
Large Asset Sales at Book Value
Completed a $1.4 billion opportunistic private asset sale across Blue Owl BDCs (including $600 million from OBDC II, ~35% of that fund, and $400 million from OBDC). Sales executed at average price ~99.7% of book value across ~130 names, validating valuation process and portfolio quality.
Negative Updates
NAV Slight Decline and Watchlist Write-Downs
NAV per share fell modestly to $14.81 from $14.89 QoQ, primarily driven by write-downs on a small handful of watchlist names, partially offset by share repurchases (repurchases added ~ $0.05 to NAV).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Large Asset Sales at Book Value
Completed a $1.4 billion opportunistic private asset sale across Blue Owl BDCs (including $600 million from OBDC II, ~35% of that fund, and $400 million from OBDC). Sales executed at average price ~99.7% of book value across ~130 names, validating valuation process and portfolio quality.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call’s guidance emphasized that the board is maintaining the base dividend at $0.37 (to be reviewed each quarter) while warning forward earnings will be pressured by lower base rates flowing through the majority floating‑rate book and by spread compression (≈30 bps over the last year); key metrics cited to support confidence in the portfolio included adjusted NII of $0.36/share (spillover income $0.36), quarter ROE of 9.7%, NAV $14.81 (down from $14.89), nonaccruals 1.1% (FV), interest coverage ≈2x, portfolio revenue/EBITDA growth +8%/+11% YoY (software LTM rev/EBITDA +10%/+16%; health care rev/EBITDA +11%/+10%), PIK income 10.3% (down from 13.2%), 3–5 rated names 9% of the portfolio, net leverage 1.19x (within 0.9–1.25x target), ~$4bn total cash + capacity (exceeding unfunded commitments), Moody’s upgrade to BAA2, and capital‑allocation actions: a $1.4bn asset sale at average price ~99.7% (including $600m from OBDC II, $400m from OBDC across ~130 names, average ~$5m/~5% position slices) that reduces leverage ~0.05x and frees ~ $1bn of deployable capital, plus $148m of repurchases in Q4 (11.6m shares) at an average 14% discount to NAV (bought at ~86% of book, accreting NAV ≈ $0.05) and a newly authorized repurchase program up to $300m.Blue Owl Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.68B | 1.10B | 1.27B | 808.76M | 882.31M |
| Gross Profit | 1.26B | 665.75M | 864.33M | 535.63M | 689.66M |
| EBITDA | 1.24B | 607.34M | 810.68M | 476.13M | 637.50M |
| Net Income | 627.41M | 594.98M | 793.31M | 466.36M | 624.88M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 17.19B | 13.87B | 13.51B | 13.58B | 13.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.84M | 431.77M | 572.59M | 348.67M | 425.66M |
| Total Debt | 9.30B | 7.46B | 7.08B | 7.28B | 7.08B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.79B | 7.91B | 7.49B | 7.70B | 7.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.40B | 5.95B | 6.02B | 5.88B | 5.94B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.74B | 160.22M | 514.37M | 423.79M | -1.23B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.74B | 160.22M | 514.37M | 423.79M | -1.23B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 0.00 | 621.24M | -206.52M | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.69B | -305.72M | -921.04M | -219.33M | 1.32B |
Blue Owl Capital Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.90
Price Trends
11.07
Negative
11.54
Negative
12.10
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
49.28
Neutral
44.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBDC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.83, below the 50-day MA of 11.07, and below the 200-day MA of 12.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OBDC.
Blue Owl Capital Risk Analysis
Blue Owl Capital disclosed 105 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Owl Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blue Owl Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $5.44B | 10.03 | 8.25% | 12.83% | 5.55% | -12.79% | |
68 Neutral | $6.31B | 10.25 | 23.40% | 6.07% | 9.51% | 29.38% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $8.57B | 21.69 | 15.23% | 0.99% | 3.86% | 28.06% | |
62 Neutral | $4.34B | 7.53 | 31.14% | 1.88% | 0.59% | -1.11% | |
58 Neutral | $4.78B | 11.59 | 26.63% | ― | 10.30% | 154.64% | |
54 Neutral | $4.69B | 11.27 | 11.96% | 0.87% | 9.14% | 291.99% |
* Financial Sector Average
OBDC
Blue Owl Capital
10.90
-1.21
-10.01%
CACC
Credit Acceptance
444.72
-56.53
-11.28%
FCFS
FirstCash
194.88
76.00
63.92%
NNI
Nelnet
130.70
24.59
23.17%
SLM
SLM
21.90
-4.83
-18.07%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
53.83
11.50
27.18%
Blue Owl Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Blue Owl Capital Executives Buy $115M in Stock
Positive
Dec 2, 2025
In November, Blue Owl Capital Corporation saw over $115 million in its common stock purchased by its executives and employees, as well as through its share repurchase program. The company is authorized to repurchase up to $200 million of its commo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.