Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.83B
• Dividend Yield: 12.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.04M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 5.55%
• EPS Growth: -12.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 499,448,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,789,654
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,036,065
• PEG Ratio: -0.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.64
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 17.49
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.54
• 1Y Price Target: $14.10
• Price Target Upside: 20.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.69B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(7.02% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is driven primarily by attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield) and a generally constructive earnings-call backdrop (portfolio validation, buybacks, liquidity), offset by only middling financial statement quality due to volatility/leverage and weak technicals with the stock trading below key moving averages.

Positive Factors

Scale & origination platform

A large direct-lending platform and high origination volume provide durable competitive advantages: superior deal flow, selective underwriting, diversified exposure and fee generation. Scale supports sourcing cost efficiency and the ability to allocate across market cycles, strengthening long-term income potential.

Healthy portfolio credit metrics

Low nonaccrual rates and double-digit portfolio revenue/EBITDA growth indicate resilient borrower fundamentals and effective underwriting. Sustainable cash flows across sectors like software and healthcare reduce credit risk and support consistent interest income and recovery prospects over a multi-month horizon.

Strong liquidity & accretive capital actions

Validated marks from near‑book asset sales, sizable repurchases and ample cash/facility capacity materially improve flexibility. These actions reduced leverage, freed deployable capital and demonstrate disciplined capital allocation that supports dividend coverage and the ability to opportunistically invest over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Meaningful leverage and reporting discontinuity

Historically material leverage amplifies downside in stress and makes earnings sensitive to credit losses. The 2025 reporting discontinuity (reported zero debt) reduces trend comparability and increases uncertainty about true structural leverage and funding risk for investors assessing medium-term stability.

Volatile cash generation

Large swings in operating and free cash flow over recent years indicate that realized cash is lumpy and can diverge from reported earnings. For a credit-focused BDC, uneven cash realization raises risk to dividend sustainability and capital deployment plans during periods of mark volatility or slower repayments.

Rate and spread sensitivity

A largely floating-rate portfolio tied to narrower spreads directly pressures net interest income as base rates decline. Persistent spread compression and lower benchmark rates can structurally reduce earnings and distributable cash, limiting the BDC's ability to maintain dividends and earn attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Blue Owl Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Owl Rock Capital Corporation is a business development company. The fund makes investments in senior secured or unsecured loans, subordinated loans or mezzanine loans and also considers equity-related securities including warrants and preferred stocks also pursues preferred equity investments and common equity investments. Within private equity, it seeks to invest in growth, acquisitions, market or product expansion, refinancings and recapitalizations. It seeks to invest in middle market companies based in the United States, with EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million annually and/or annual revenue of $50 million and $2.5 billion at the time of investment.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Owl Capital makes money through a diversified revenue model that primarily includes management fees, performance-based fees, and investment income. The firm generates management fees by overseeing and managing assets for its clients across its various funds and investment vehicles. Performance-based fees are earned when the investments outperform certain benchmarks, aligning the firm's interests with those of its investors. Additionally, Blue Owl Capital earns investment income through the appreciation and returns on its proprietary investments and portfolio holdings. The firm's revenue is further supported by strategic partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions, enhancing its ability to access capital and investment opportunities.

Blue Owl Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and generally solid ROE support earnings quality, but cash flow and revenue trends are volatile. Leverage is meaningful in most years, and 2025 reporting discontinuities (e.g., debt and operating profit line items) reduce comparability and confidence in trend analysis.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength: net profit margins remain very high (roughly ~48% to ~71% across 2021–2025), supporting consistently strong earnings. Revenue growth is volatile—strong increases in 2021 and 2023 and a sharp rebound in 2025, but declines in 2022 and 2024—suggesting a less steady top-line trajectory. Also, 2025 shows missing operating profit fields (gross profit/EBIT/EBITDA reported as zero), which reduces transparency and confidence in year-to-year comparability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a sizable equity base that has grown by 2025, and returns on equity are generally solid (~8% to ~13% historically). Leverage is the main watch-out: debt relative to equity sits around ~0.9x to ~1.25x in 2020–2024, which is meaningful and can amplify downside in weaker credit conditions. 2025 reports zero debt and a 0.0 debt-to-equity ratio, which is a major discontinuity versus prior years and creates uncertainty around comparability/definition rather than a clear structural deleveraging conclusion.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven. Operating cash flow was deeply negative in 2020 and 2021, then turned positive and improved in 2022–2024, followed by a very strong 2025 operating cash flow and free cash flow result. The sharp swings (from large negatives to large positives) indicate higher volatility in cash realization, which is a risk factor for a credit-oriented financial business even when reported earnings are strong.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.68B	1.10B	1.27B	808.76M	882.31M
Gross Profit	1.26B	665.75M	864.33M	535.63M	689.66M
EBITDA	1.24B	607.34M	810.68M	476.13M	637.50M
Net Income	627.41M	594.98M	793.31M	466.36M	624.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	17.19B	13.87B	13.51B	13.58B	13.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.84M	431.77M	572.59M	348.67M	425.66M
Total Debt	9.30B	7.46B	7.08B	7.28B	7.08B
Total Liabilities	9.79B	7.91B	7.49B	7.70B	7.36B
Stockholders Equity	7.40B	5.95B	6.02B	5.88B	5.94B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.74B	160.22M	514.37M	423.79M	-1.23B
Operating Cash Flow	1.74B	160.22M	514.37M	423.79M	-1.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.42B	0.00	621.24M	-206.52M	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	-1.69B	-305.72M	-921.04M	-219.33M	1.32B

Blue Owl Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 11.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBDC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.64, below the 50-day MA of 12.24, and below the 200-day MA of 13.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OBDC.

Blue Owl Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NNI	73 Outperform	$4.62B	10.96	12.27%	0.87%	9.14%	291.99%
FCFS	69 Neutral	$8.15B	24.47	15.26%	0.99%	3.86%	28.06%
OBDC	68 Neutral	$5.83B	9.28	9.40%	12.83%	5.55%	-12.79%
OMF	68 Neutral	$6.47B	8.25	23.76%	6.07%	9.51%	29.38%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CACC	64 Neutral	$5.33B	13.58	28.14%	―	10.30%	154.64%
SLM	63 Neutral	$3.93B	5.74	32.31%	1.88%	0.59%	-1.11%

Blue Owl Capital Corporate Events

Blue Owl Capital Executives Buy $115M in Stock

In November, Blue Owl Capital Corporation saw over $115 million in its common stock purchased by its executives and employees, as well as through its share repurchase program. The company is authorized to repurchase up to $200 million of its common stock, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (OBDC) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Owl Capital stock, see the OBDC Stock Forecast page.