Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.24B
• Dividend Yield: 11.64%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.64M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: -3.96%
• EPS Growth: -16.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 74
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 511,048,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,716,007
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,643,421
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.14
• 1Y Price Target: $15.42
• Price Target Upside: 8.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Blue Owl Capital's robust financial performance and valuation are key strengths, supported by a successful merger and increased scale. However, recent revenue declines and cash flow fluctuations, along with mixed technical signals, temper the overall positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

OBDC stands out in the BDC landscape as a scaled platform offering an attractive mix of quality credit, earnings power, and dividend yield.

Shareholder Value

OBDC is expected to continue delivering industry-leading results, translating into strong value creation for shareholders.

Strength and Diversification

Blue Owl Capital Corporation enters 2025 from a position of strength with greater scale and diversification.

Negative Factors

Portfolio Yield

The portfolio yield declined due to lower base rates.

Valuation Concerns

The stock is still trading at sub-1x book value, making OBDC a top pick in the BDC coverage.

Blue Owl Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Owl Rock Capital Corporation is a business development company. The fund makes investments in senior secured or unsecured loans, subordinated loans or mezzanine loans and also considers equity-related securities including warrants and preferred stocks also pursues preferred equity investments and common equity investments. Within private equity, it seeks to invest in growth, acquisitions, market or product expansion, refinancings and recapitalizations. It seeks to invest in middle market companies based in the United States, with EBITDA between $10 million and $250 million annually and/or annual revenue of $50 million and $2.5 billion at the time of investment.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Owl Capital makes money through a diversified revenue model that primarily includes management fees, performance-based fees, and investment income. The firm generates management fees by overseeing and managing assets for its clients across its various funds and investment vehicles. Performance-based fees are earned when the investments outperform certain benchmarks, aligning the firm's interests with those of its investors. Additionally, Blue Owl Capital earns investment income through the appreciation and returns on its proprietary investments and portfolio holdings. The firm's revenue is further supported by strategic partnerships and collaborations with financial institutions, enhancing its ability to access capital and investment opportunities.

Blue Owl Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Blue Owl Capital displays a robust financial structure with strong profitability and a debt-free balance sheet in 2024. Revenue growth has been significant historically, but recent revenue decline and cash flow fluctuations highlight areas for potential improvement.

Income Statement

Blue Owl Capital demonstrates a solid gross profit margin, consistently high EBIT margins, and positive net profit margins over the years. However, there was a decline in Total Revenue from 2023 to 2024, indicating a potential concern in revenue growth. Despite this, the company has achieved significant revenue growth from 2020 to 2023.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with zero debt in 2024, enhancing the stability of the company. The equity ratio is healthy, and the return on equity is positive, showing efficient use of equity. However, the company previously had a high debt-to-equity ratio, which has been resolved by eliminating debt.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis shows fluctuating operating cash flows, with a significant positive free cash flow in 2023 turning to a much lower free cash flow in 2024. The company has managed to maintain positive operating cash flow relative to net income, indicating operational efficiency, but the inconsistency over the recent years poses a risk to cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.46B	1.10B	1.58B	1.12B	994.84M	793.86M
Gross Profit	982.97M	665.75M	0.00	194.37M	380.74M	178.54M
EBITDA	831.58M	607.34M	810.68M	476.13M	637.50M	393.44M
Net Income	670.38M	594.98M	793.31M	466.36M	624.88M	387.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	17.40B	13.87B	13.51B	13.58B	13.30B	11.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	719.00K	431.77M	572.59M	348.67M	425.66M	349.07M
Total Debt	0.00	7.46B	7.08B	7.28B	7.08B	5.29B
Total Liabilities	9.72B	7.91B	7.49B	7.70B	7.36B	5.56B
Stockholders Equity	7.68B	5.95B	6.02B	5.88B	5.94B	5.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.49B	160.22M	1.14B	217.27M	-1.23B	-1.56B
Operating Cash Flow	1.49B	160.22M	1.14B	217.27M	-1.23B	-1.56B
Investing Cash Flow	-758.85M	0.00	0.00	-2.13B	-1.62B	-3.86B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.51B	-305.72M	-921.04M	-219.33M	1.32B	1.60B

Blue Owl Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 14.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OBDC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.18, below the 50-day MA of 14.39, and above the 200-day MA of 14.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OBDC.

Blue Owl Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FCFS	77 Outperform	$6.55B	22.19	14.17%	1.06%	2.49%	24.41%
OMF	76 Outperform	$7.27B	10.88	20.47%	6.80%	9.41%	13.98%
OBDC	69 Neutral	$7.24B	9.39	9.80%	11.64%	-3.96%	-16.37%
CACC	69 Neutral	$5.86B	15.04	27.30%	―	12.63%	149.03%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.69B	11.82	10.30%	3.73%	9.66%	0.42%
SLM	61 Neutral	$6.64B	15.91	18.99%	1.57%	-4.34%	-38.01%
ALLY	52 Neutral	$12.53B	26.36	4.18%	2.94%	-5.33%	-32.99%

Blue Owl Capital Corporate Events

Blue Owl Capital Strengthens Position with Major Merger

Blue Owl Capital Corporation has completed its merger with Blue Owl Capital Corporation III, resulting in OBDC becoming the second largest publicly traded business development company by total assets. The merger, which increases OBDC’s total assets to $18.6 billion and diversifies its portfolio across 232 companies, is expected to strengthen OBDC’s market position and enhance its ability to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns. The merger terms included an exchange of OBDE shares for OBDC shares and cash in lieu of fractional shares, with legacy OBDC shareholders owning 76% of the combined entity. This strategic move aims to leverage enhanced scale and operational efficiencies while maintaining strong credit quality.