Nelnet (NNI)
NYSE:NNI
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Nelnet
(NYSE:NNI)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$133.00
▲(5.10% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker and less reliable latest-year financials (sharp revenue decline, negative operating/free cash flow, and data discontinuities). Valuation is a supportive offset with a low P/E, while technical indicators are broadly neutral/soft. The recent acquisition is a modest positive but not enough to outweigh near-term financial uncertainty.
Positive Factors
Diversified, fee-based business mix
Nelnet’s revenue comes from recurring, contract-linked servicing fees, school software subscriptions, payment processing, and lending interest. This mix reduces reliance on any single revenue source, supports predictable cash flows, and enables cross-sell across education customers over a multi-month horizon.
Negative Factors
Sharp 2025 revenue and cash-flow deterioration
A ~59% revenue drop and negative operating/free cash flow in 2025 represent a structural hit to earnings quality and internal funding. Even if partly temporary, such a pronounced decline undermines near-term reinvestment capacity and heightens execution risk across servicing, lending, and tech initiatives for several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified, fee-based business mix
Nelnet’s revenue comes from recurring, contract-linked servicing fees, school software subscriptions, payment processing, and lending interest. This mix reduces reliance on any single revenue source, supports predictable cash flows, and enables cross-sell across education customers over a multi-month horizon.
Read all positive factors
Nelnet (NNI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.54B
Dividend Yield0.87%
Average Volume (3M)140.93K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.3
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth9.14%
EPS Growth291.99%
CountryUS
Employees6,739
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.56
Shares Outstanding25,258,282
10 Day Avg. Volume215,454
30 Day Avg. Volume140,928
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.31
Price to Sales (P/S)2.13
P/FCF Ratio12.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$140.00Price Target Upside10.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)8.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.69B
Nelnet Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nelnet, Inc. engages in loan servicing, communications, education technology, services, and payment processing businesses worldwide. The Loan Servicing and Systems segment provides loan conversion, application processing, borrower updates, custome...
How the Company Makes Money
Nelnet generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is derived from its student loan servicing operations, where it manages federal and private student loans for various lenders and educational institutions, earning ...
Nelnet Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
43
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.26B | 1.85B | 1.81B | 1.82B | 1.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.97B | 1.11B | 961.15M | 1.35B | 1.25B |
| EBITDA | 1.06B | 361.11M | 214.11M | 678.09M | 634.43M |
| Net Income | 428.47M | 184.04M | 89.83M | 406.90M | 393.29M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.06B | 13.78B | 16.71B | 19.37B | 21.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 973.55M | 1.18B | 1.11B | 1.51B | 1.06B |
| Total Debt | 7.79B | 8.31B | 11.83B | 14.64B | 17.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.49B | 10.48B | 13.51B | 16.17B | 18.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.69B | 3.35B | 3.25B | 3.20B | 2.95B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 396.75M | 641.99M | 358.92M | 624.64M | 421.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 422.99M | 662.89M | 432.98M | 684.06M | 480.33M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 509.43M | 2.41B | 1.94B | 2.27B | 1.19B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -890.16M | -3.17B | -2.70B | -2.79B | -1.43B |
Nelnet Technical Analysis
Negative
126.55
Price Trends
130.56
Negative
131.17
Negative
127.69
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.96
Positive
40.75
Neutral
45.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NNI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 126.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 129.92, below the 50-day MA of 130.56, and below the 200-day MA of 127.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.96 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NNI.
Nelnet Risk Analysis
Nelnet disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nelnet reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nelnet Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $3.11B | 6.42 | 16.09% | 1.12% | -4.32% | 58.34% | |
71 Outperform | $3.24B | 12.62 | 24.45% | ― | 21.10% | 76.12% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $4.51B | 11.59 | 26.63% | ― | 10.30% | 154.64% | |
62 Neutral | $4.03B | 6.01 | 31.14% | 1.88% | 0.59% | -1.11% | |
53 Neutral | $4.54B | 11.27 | 11.96% | 0.87% | 9.14% | 291.99% | |
49 Neutral | $767.37M | -54.17 | -3.16% | 4.95% | -25.22% | -174.34% |
* Financial Sector Average
NNI
Nelnet
126.55
16.71
15.21%
BFH
Bread Financial Holdings
72.13
22.76
46.11%
CACC
Credit Acceptance
419.49
-96.86
-18.76%
SLM
SLM
20.36
-8.45
-29.33%
NAVI
Navient
8.07
-3.88
-32.46%
ENVA
Enova International
129.71
33.15
34.33%
Nelnet Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Nelnet Expands Canadian Student Loan Servicing Presence
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Nelnet, Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiary Nelnet Canada, completed the previously announced acquisition of Finastra Holdings Limited’s Canadian student loan servicing business from DH Corporation for CAD $130.5 m...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Nelnet Bank Files Quarterly FDIC Call Report Disclosure
Neutral
Jan 30, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Nelnet Bank filed its quarterly Consolidated Reports of Condition and Income (Call Report) for the period ended December 31, 2025 with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, covering its operations as a bank with domestic ...
Executive/Board Changes
Nelnet Announces Retirement of President and NBS CEO
Neutral
Jan 15, 2026
On January 15, 2026, Nelnet announced that its president and Nelnet Business Services CEO, Tim Tewes, will retire effective June 30, 2026, after more than 25 years with the organization and its predecessor, FACTS Management. Tewes, who joined Neln...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.