NexPoint Residential Trust Inc (NXRT)
NYSE:NXRT
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NexPoint Residential
(NYSE:NXRT)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$24.00
▼(-6.29% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is held down primarily by weakening profitability and high/rising leverage, reinforced by weak price momentum (below major moving averages with negative MACD). A high dividend yield and management’s liquidity position/buybacks provide partial support, but cautious 2026 guidance (negative EPS and lower Core FFO/share) and continued occupancy/NOI pressure limit the upside.
Positive Factors
Repeatable Value‑Add Execution
A demonstrated, scalable value‑add program (9,866 upgrades, ~$158 monthly uplift, ~21% ROI) indicates durable NOI and cash‑flow expansion potential per renovated unit. Repeatable renovation economics support long‑term rent growth and protect asset-level returns across markets.
Negative Factors
High and Rising Leverage
A marked increase in leverage (debt/equity ~5.3x) elevates refinancing and solvency risk, limits financial flexibility, and amplifies earnings sensitivity to rising rates. High indebtedness constrains ability to fund value‑add programs or absorb NOI shocks without additional capital or asset sales.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Repeatable Value‑Add Execution
A demonstrated, scalable value‑add program (9,866 upgrades, ~$158 monthly uplift, ~21% ROI) indicates durable NOI and cash‑flow expansion potential per renovated unit. Repeatable renovation economics support long‑term rent growth and protect asset-level returns across markets.
Read all positive factors
NexPoint Residential (NXRT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$653.42M
Dividend Yield7.06%
Average Volume (3M)151.16K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.74
Revenue Growth-4.46%
EPS Growth-206.19%
CountryUS
Employees2
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Residential
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.41
Shares Outstanding25,411,251
10 Day Avg. Volume125,398
30 Day Avg. Volume151,158
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.59
Price to Sales (P/S)3.04
P/FCF Ratio9.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue8.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.00Price Target Upside21.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$256.69M
NexPoint Residential Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NexPoint Residential Trust is a publicly traded REIT, with its shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol NXRT, primarily focused on acquiring, owning and operating well-located middle-income multifamily properties with value-ad...
How the Company Makes Money
NXRT makes money primarily by generating rental-related income from its multifamily apartment portfolio. Its key revenue stream is residential rental revenue (monthly rent paid by tenants), which is influenced by occupancy levels, lease rates, and...
NexPoint Residential Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: clear operational execution, disciplined capital deployment (buybacks, accretive acquisition), meaningful cost containment and strong liquidity are positives. Offsetting these are continued occupancy and NOI pressure, a full-year net loss, cautious 2026 guidance (negative EPS and lower Core FFO per share midpoint), and expense/tax headwinds. Management expressed cautious optimism about a Sun Belt recovery and execution of value-add plans, but near-term results and guidance remain muted.Positive Updates
Improved Quarterly Results vs Prior Year
Q4 net loss narrowed to $10.3M ($0.41 per diluted share) from a $26.9M loss ($1.06 per diluted share) in Q4 2024 on total revenue of $62.1M (vs $63.8M). Q4 Core FFO was $16.5M or $0.65 per diluted share (vs $0.68).
Negative Updates
Full-Year Net Loss and YOY NOI Declines
Full-year 2025 net loss of $32.0M ($1.26 per diluted share) versus net income of $1.1M in 2024. Full-year NOI declined 3.4% to $151.7M on 35 properties; Q4 NOI declined 4.7% YoY and same-store NOI was down 4.8% in Q4.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Improved Quarterly Results vs Prior Year
Q4 net loss narrowed to $10.3M ($0.41 per diluted share) from a $26.9M loss ($1.06 per diluted share) in Q4 2024 on total revenue of $62.1M (vs $63.8M). Q4 Core FFO was $16.5M or $0.65 per diluted share (vs $0.68).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NexPoint’s 2026 guidance calls for rental income growth of 0.0%/0.9%/1.9% (low/mid/high), total revenue +0.1%/+1.1%/+2.0%, total expenses +4.2%/ +3.5%/+2.8%, same-store NOI -2.5%/-0.5%/+1.5%, diluted EPS -$1.54/-$1.40/-$1.26, and Core FFO per diluted share $2.42/$2.57/$2.71. Management models financial occupancy of 93.4%–94.1% (peak in Q3) and economic occupancy ~91.8% at the midpoint, stabilizing bad debt at ~80 bps (70–90 bps range) and concession utilization ~71 bps of GPR; midpoint total revenue growth of 1.1% is driven by ~0.9% rental growth, mid-single-digit other income, and ~40 bps of top-line lift from ROI CapEx. Expense assumptions include 6.4% controllable expense growth at the midpoint (80% due to bulk Wi‑Fi with direct revenue offset), -1% R&M/turn cost growth, $375k (8.4%) lower interior R&M turnover, 2% labor growth, 7.4% marketing, a 10 bp G&A increase, +4.5% utilities, -2.1% insurance, and +4.4% real estate taxes (taxes comprise 31% of the 3.5% midpoint expense increase). Value‑add plans assume ~300 full upgrades at $16,500/unit (avg $240/mo premium), ~400 partials at $3,500 (avg $70/mo), 680 W/D installs at $1,200 (avg $54/mo), targeting 15–20% ROI, and imply NAV/share of $41.43–$55.72 ($48.57 midpoint) using 5.25%–5.75% cap rates; management emphasized interest expense as the largest driver from 2025 to the 2026 midpoint.NexPoint Residential Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 251.28M | 259.70M | 277.53M | 263.95M | 219.24M |
| Gross Profit | 211.72M | 146.47M | 157.58M | 143.89M | 117.05M |
| EBITDA | 124.46M | 202.99M | 250.01M | 138.94M | 137.39M |
| Net Income | -32.03M | 1.11M | 44.26M | -9.26M | 23.04M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.89B | 1.91B | 2.11B | 2.23B | 2.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.70M | 23.15M | 12.37M | 127.84M | 53.24M |
| Total Debt | 1.56B | 1.46B | 1.48B | 1.60B | 1.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.59B | 1.49B | 1.61B | 1.70B | 1.59B |
| Stockholders Equity | 295.50M | 410.37M | 494.62M | 519.67M | 469.85M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 83.59M | 73.57M | 96.58M | 79.10M | 73.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 83.59M | 73.57M | 96.58M | 79.10M | 73.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -115.75M | 130.62M | 51.92M | -162.30M | -235.91M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 23.42M | -195.55M | -155.02M | 46.31M | 194.32M |
NexPoint Residential Technical Analysis
Neutral
25.61
Price Trends
27.13
Negative
28.27
Negative
29.59
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.57
Negative
49.57
Neutral
80.53
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXRT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 25.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.05, below the 50-day MA of 27.13, and below the 200-day MA of 29.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NXRT.
NexPoint Residential Risk Analysis
NexPoint Residential disclosed 84 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NexPoint Residential reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NexPoint Residential Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $1.77B | 18.46 | 6.73% | 2.17% | 3.37% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $1.33B | 51.05 | 2.88% | 5.66% | 8.91% | -39.58% | |
55 Neutral | $1.13B | 63.46 | -4.93% | 4.58% | 36.82% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $266.33M | -15.32 | -6.33% | 6.98% | 1.62% | 11.38% | |
47 Neutral | $653.42M | -23.86 | -12.63% | 7.06% | -4.46% | -206.19% | |
45 Neutral | $586.99M | 0.70 | 299.94% | 7.42% | -4.63% | 42.39% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
NXRT
NexPoint Residential
25.61
-7.72
-23.16%
AIV
Apartment Investment & Management
4.08
-0.05
-1.31%
VRE
Veris Residential
18.90
3.96
26.47%
UMH
Umh
15.65
-0.51
-3.16%
CSR
Centerspace
63.92
8.79
15.93%
BRT
BRT Apartments
14.03
-0.44
-3.06%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.