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NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
NASDAQ:NXPI

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) AI Stock Analysis

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NX

NXP Semiconductors

(NASDAQ:NXPI)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$261.00
▲(12.91%Upside)
NXP Semiconductors' strong financial performance and technical momentum are key strengths, providing a stable foundation despite valuation concerns and macroeconomic challenges. The earnings call highlights strategic initiatives and potential recovery signs, but significant risks remain due to high debt levels and market volatility.
Positive Factors
Business Model
NXP offers a highly favorable combination of a resilient business model, growing capital returns, and long-term auto/industrial secular growth.
Cyclical Recovery
Signs of a cyclical recovery and improving backlog position NXP at an attractive entry point for investors.
Valuation
NXP is considered attractive due to its discounted valuation compared to peers, presenting a compelling investment opportunity.
Negative Factors
Leadership Change
The surprising announcement that CEO Kurt Sievers will retire at the end of 2025 likely weighed on shares given he was well regarded by investors.
Market Visibility
Lingering inventory digestion and a highly uncertain demand backdrop create limited visibility, impacting investor confidence.
Tariff Uncertainty
Tariff uncertainty creates limited visibility for the second half of 2025, impacting investor confidence.

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

NXP Semiconductors Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNXP Semiconductors N.V. offers various semiconductor products. The company's product portfolio includes microcontrollers; application processors, including i.MX application processors, and i.MX 8 and 9 family of applications processors; communication processors; wireless connectivity solutions, such as near field communications, ultra-wideband, Bluetooth low-energy, Zigbee, and Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi/Bluetooth integrated SoCs; analog and interface devices; radio frequency power amplifiers; and security controllers, as well as semiconductor-based environmental and inertial sensors, including pressure, inertial, magnetic, and gyroscopic sensors. The company's product solutions are used in a range of applications, including automotive, industrial and Internet of Things, mobile, and communication infrastructure. The company markets its products to various original equipment manufacturers, contract manufacturers, and distributors. It operates in China, the Netherlands, the United States, Singapore, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and internationally. The company was formerly known as KASLION Acquisition B.V and changed its name to NXP Semiconductors N.V. in May 2010. NXP Semiconductors N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Eindhoven, the Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyNXP Semiconductors generates revenue primarily through the sale of semiconductor products and solutions across various industries. The company's revenue model is based on the design, manufacturing, and marketing of its semiconductor products. Key revenue streams include automotive applications, where NXP provides products for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), vehicle networking, and secure car access. In the industrial & IoT sector, NXP offers solutions for smart home devices, industrial automation, and connected devices. The mobile sector contributes to revenue through products for smartphones, wearables, and mobile payment solutions. Additionally, NXP partners with major technology companies and automotive manufacturers, which enhances its product offerings and market reach. The company's ability to innovate and adapt to emerging technologies like 5G and automated driving further supports its revenue generation.

NXP Semiconductors Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Sales Channel
Revenue by Sales Channel
Analyzes revenue from various sales channels, such as direct sales or distributors, highlighting the company's strategic focus and effectiveness in reaching its customers.
Chart InsightsNXP Semiconductors' revenue from distributors shows a recent downturn after a peak in late 2023, reflecting broader market challenges. OEMs and EMS channels have stabilized but remain below their 2022 highs. The earnings call highlights macroeconomic pressures and a strategic acquisition of Kinara, aimed at bolstering AI capabilities. Despite a year-on-year revenue decline, management sees early signs of recovery with improving backlog levels. The guidance for Q2 2025 suggests slight sequential growth, indicating cautious optimism amid ongoing volatility.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

NXP Semiconductors Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 18.34%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted some positive developments, such as better-than-expected revenue and a strategic acquisition, but these were tempered by significant challenges including a year-on-year revenue decline and macroeconomic uncertainties. The guidance for Q2 indicates a slight sequential improvement, yet the macro environment remains volatile.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Exceeds Midpoint of Guidance
NXP's Q1 revenue was $10 million better than the midpoint of guidance, totaling $2.84 billion.
Guidance for Q2 Shows Sequential Growth
Q2 revenue is guided to $2.9 billion, up 2% sequentially, despite a 7% year-on-year decline.
Strategic Acquisition of Kinara
NXP announced the acquisition of Kinara for $307 million to enhance its AI-powered edge-based systems, expected to be accretive by 2028.
Non-GAAP Earnings Beat
Non-GAAP earnings per share for Q1 was $2.64, $0.05 better than midpoint guidance.
CEO Transition Plan
CEO Kurt Sievers announced his retirement plan, with Rafael promoted to President and taking over as CEO in October 2025.
Negative Updates
Year-on-Year Revenue Decline
Q1 revenue decreased by 9% year-on-year, with automotive and industrial and IoT markets performing below expectations.
Non-GAAP Operating Margin Decline
Non-GAAP operating margin decreased by 260 basis points year-on-year to 31.9%.
Inventory Levels Above Target
Distribution inventory stood at 9 weeks, below the long-term target of 11 weeks, but overall inventory days increased to 169.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
NXP faces uncertainty due to tariffs and their indirect impact, with no clear trends in customer order pull-ins or push-outs.
Company Guidance
During NXP Semiconductor's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance for Q2 2025, projecting revenue at $2.9 billion, which represents a 7% year-over-year decline but a 2% sequential increase. Specific expectations include automotive revenue to remain flat compared to Q2 2024 and grow in the low single-digits versus Q1 2025. Industrial and IoT revenue is anticipated to drop in the mid-teens year-over-year and rise in the mid-single-digits sequentially. Meanwhile, mobile revenue is expected to decline in the mid-single-digits both year-over-year and sequentially, and communication infrastructure and other revenues are projected to decrease in the high 20% range year-over-year and remain flat sequentially. Operating expenses for Q2 are forecasted to be around $710 million, and the non-GAAP operating margin is expected at 31.8%. Despite uncertainties, including potential indirect effects of tariffs, NXP sees early signs of cycle recovery with improving customer backlog levels and stabilized order signals.

NXP Semiconductors Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NXP Semiconductors shows strong financial health with solid profitability margins and a balanced capital structure. While there's a slight revenue decline, efficient cost management and healthy cash flow generation provide stability. However, significant debt levels require careful management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
The income statement reflects a strong financial performance with a consistent revenue stream. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin stands at 55.46%, indicating efficient cost management. However, there is a slight decrease in revenue, with a 2.30% drop compared to the previous year. The EBIT margin is solid at 26.63%, and the EBITDA margin is healthy at 30.75%, suggesting good operational efficiency. Despite the small decline in revenue, the company maintains strong profitability metrics.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet shows a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.21, indicating a moderate level of leverage. The equity ratio is 38.42%, reflecting a balanced capital structure. Return on equity (ROE) is robust at 24.4%, demonstrating effective management of shareholder funds. However, the total debt level is significant at $11.725 billion, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a strong free cash flow generation with a TTM free cash flow of approximately $2.04 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.05, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.86, showcasing strong cash flow management. Despite a decrease in operating cash flow compared to the previous year, the company's cash position remains healthy.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.32B12.61B13.28B13.21B11.06B8.61B
Gross Profit6.83B7.12B7.55B7.52B6.07B4.24B
EBITDA4.01B4.42B4.90B5.04B3.81B2.35B
Net Income2.36B2.51B2.80B2.79B1.87B84.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets25.18B24.39B24.35B23.24B20.86B19.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.99B3.29B4.27B3.85B2.83B2.27B
Total Debt11.72B10.85B11.18B11.16B10.57B7.61B
Total Liabilities15.50B14.85B15.39B15.50B14.09B10.70B
Stockholders Equity9.32B9.18B8.64B7.45B6.53B8.94B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.88B1.91B2.51B2.67B2.15B1.96B
Operating Cash Flow2.49B2.78B3.51B3.90B3.08B2.48B
Investing Cash Flow-625.95M-686.00M-1.51B-1.25B-934.00M-418.00M
Financing Cash Flow-780.63M-2.66B-1.99B-1.62B-1.58B-835.00M

NXP Semiconductors Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price231.15
Price Trends
50DMA
202.33
Positive
100DMA
201.69
Positive
200DMA
211.76
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
5.89
Negative
RSI
69.53
Neutral
STOCH
85.97
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXPI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 231.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 214.55, above the 50-day MA of 202.33, and above the 200-day MA of 211.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.97 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NXPI.

NXP Semiconductors Risk Analysis

NXP Semiconductors disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NXP Semiconductors reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
We may engage in acquisitions and other strategic transactions or make investments, or be unable to consummate planned strategic acquisitions, which could adversely affect our results of operations. Q4, 2024
2.
We rely on joint ventures to meet our current and future manufacturing requirements. However, we often do not control these partnerships and joint ventures, and actions taken by any of our partners or the termination of these joint ventures could adversely affect our business. Q4, 2024

NXP Semiconductors Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (69)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
STSTM
76
Outperform
$26.98B25.626.33%1.02%-25.35%-70.00%
75
Outperform
$55.88B23.8526.02%1.83%-7.21%-15.29%
74
Outperform
$11.58B30.146.70%3.63%-12.90%-51.90%
ONON
72
Outperform
$22.40B38.817.85%-18.28%-70.98%
71
Outperform
$65.73B-3.54%0.31%21.60%50.00%
69
Neutral
¥229.55B14.487.64%2.71%9.13%8.50%
64
Neutral
$38.66B84.25>-0.01%2.54%-42.35%-100.12%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NXPI
NXP Semiconductors
231.15
-36.15
-13.52%
MRVL
Marvell
74.25
2.29
3.18%
MCHP
Microchip
73.16
-17.88
-19.64%
ON
ON Semiconductor
55.95
-16.73
-23.02%
SWKS
Skyworks Solutions
78.18
-22.85
-22.62%
STM
STMicroelectronics
31.70
-8.95
-22.02%

NXP Semiconductors Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsStock BuybackDividends
NXP Semiconductors Approves Interim Dividend Announcement
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

On June 11, 2025, NXP Semiconductors held its annual general meeting where shareholders voted on several resolutions, including the adoption of the 2024 statutory annual accounts and the re-appointment of various board members. The board was also authorized to issue and repurchase shares, and E&Y Accountants B.V. was re-appointed as the independent auditor for 2025. Additionally, on June 12, 2025, the board approved an interim dividend of $1.014 per share, to be paid on July 9, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 25, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (NXPI) stock is a Buy with a $285.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NXP Semiconductors stock, see the NXPI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025