Novo Nordisk (NVO)
NYSE:NVO
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Novo Nordisk
(NYSE:NVO)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(8.21% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/06/26
The score reflects strong underlying financial quality and attractive valuation, partially offset by a very weak technical setup (downtrend across all key moving averages) and a cautious near-term outlook from management, including guidance for declining 2026 sales and operating profit amid pricing and policy headwinds.
Positive Factors
GLP‑1 / Obesity Market Leadership
Novo Nordisk’s dominant GLP‑1 position and rapid obesity franchise growth create durable scale advantages. High volume share, multi‑channel uptake (injectable, pill, HD) and broad formulary traction strengthen pricing leverage, distribution clout and barriers to entry over the medium term.
Negative Factors
2026 Guidance Contraction & Policy Headwinds
Management’s explicit guidance for a material sales and operating profit decline reflects structural pricing and policy pressure (MFN/MFP) and loss‑of‑exclusivity risks. These forces can sustainably compress realized prices and margins and reduce near‑term cash flow visibility for multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
GLP‑1 / Obesity Market Leadership
Novo Nordisk’s dominant GLP‑1 position and rapid obesity franchise growth create durable scale advantages. High volume share, multi‑channel uptake (injectable, pill, HD) and broad formulary traction strengthen pricing leverage, distribution clout and barriers to entry over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Novo Nordisk (NVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$157.79B
Dividend Yield3.58%
Average Volume (3M)22.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.6
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth18.71%
EPS Growth11.24%
CountryUS
Employees77,406
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.95
Shares Outstanding3,390,128,000
10 Day Avg. Volume17,980,355
30 Day Avg. Volume22,866,856
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio8.49
Price to Book (P/B)7.42
Price to Sales (P/S)4.84
P/FCF Ratio49.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.00Price Target Upside19.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)$44.44B
Novo Nordisk Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, North America, and internati...
How the Company Makes Money
Novo Nordisk makes money mainly by selling prescription medicines (and related drug-delivery devices) to healthcare systems through a global commercial and distribution network. Its revenue model is largely product-sales driven:
1) Primary revenu...
Novo Nordisk Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Novo Nordisk is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Novo Nordisk is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNovo Nordisk Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: strong commercial momentum in obesity and GLP-1 franchises (notably the successful Wegovy pill launch, robust GLP-1 volume share, and meaningful R&D readouts such as CagriSema and zenagamtide) alongside solid cash generation and shareholder returns. Offsetting these positives are substantial near-term headwinds driven by pricing pressure, policy impacts (MFN/MFP), loss of exclusivity risk, margin compression and a conservative 2026 outlook (adjusted sales and operating profit guidance of -5% to -13% CER). Management is bullish on long-term market expansion and pipeline potential but explicit near-term guidance and exceptional costs temper the tone. Overall, positives (product launches, R&D wins, market leadership and cash generation) are significant, but the company has signaled a pronounced near-term earnings challenge driven by pricing and policy — producing a balanced, watchful outlook.Positive Updates
Top-line growth and profit performance (2025)
Sales grew 10% in 2025 and operating profit increased ~6% at constant exchange rates (reported operating profit was down 1% in DKK but +6% CER excluding currency effects). Net profit was DKK 102 billion and cash from operations was close to DKK 120 billion.
Negative Updates
2026 guidance – material near-term contraction expected
Adjusted sales growth for 2026 is guided at -5% to -13% at constant exchange rates; adjusted operating profit growth is also guided at -5% to -13% CER. Reported growth in DKK is expected to be several percentage points lower due to currency effects. Management cites pricing headwinds, MFN impacts and loss of exclusivity as main drivers.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line growth and profit performance (2025)
Sales grew 10% in 2025 and operating profit increased ~6% at constant exchange rates (reported operating profit was down 1% in DKK but +6% CER excluding currency effects). Net profit was DKK 102 billion and cash from operations was close to DKK 120 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Novo Nordisk guided 2026 adjusted sales growth of minus 5% to minus 13% at constant exchange rates and adjusted operating profit growth of minus 5% to minus 13% at constant exchange rates (noting reported DKK sales growth is expected to be ~3 percentage points lower and reported operating profit growth ~5 percentage points lower given current FX), with the outlook reflecting assumed continued global GLP‑1 market expansion offset by lower realized prices (including MFN impacts) and loss‑of‑exclusivity in some markets and a sales decline in the U.S. management described as being driven largely by price declines and channel mix; the company will exclude a non‑cash USD 4.2 billion 340B provision reversal from adjusted metrics, expects free cash flow (operating cash less PP&E) of DKK 35–45 billion, capital expenditure of ~DKK 55 billion, total cash returns to shareholders of over DKK 60 billion in 2026 and a new share buyback program of up to DKK 15 billion.Novo Nordisk Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
87
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 297.20B | 290.40B | 232.26B | 176.95B | 140.80B |
| Gross Profit | 238.77B | 245.88B | 196.50B | 148.51B | 117.14B |
| EBITDA | 143.94B | 137.38B | 114.63B | 76.80B | 65.39B |
| Net Income | 98.50B | 100.99B | 83.68B | 55.52B | 47.76B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 542.90B | 465.80B | 314.49B | 241.26B | 194.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 26.96B | 26.31B | 30.23B | 23.57B | 17.48B |
| Total Debt | 130.96B | 102.79B | 27.01B | 25.78B | 26.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 348.86B | 322.31B | 207.93B | 157.77B | 123.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 194.05B | 143.49B | 106.56B | 83.49B | 70.75B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 28.99B | 69.66B | 70.01B | 64.13B | 47.62B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 119.10B | 120.97B | 108.91B | 78.89B | 55.00B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -79.16B | -128.90B | -43.89B | -24.92B | -31.61B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -28.41B | 8.73B | -63.16B | -51.80B | -25.49B |
Novo Nordisk Technical Analysis
Negative
36.04
Price Trends
44.49
Negative
46.77
Negative
52.26
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.19
Negative
31.49
Neutral
-12.29
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.69, below the 50-day MA of 44.49, and below the 200-day MA of 52.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -12.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVO.
Novo Nordisk Risk Analysis
Novo Nordisk disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Novo Nordisk reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Novo Nordisk Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $169.26B | 17.46 | 41.01% | 2.52% | 2.76% | 6407.19% | |
73 Outperform | $584.38B | 18.81 | 33.78% | 2.50% | 6.05% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $121.64B | 15.61 | 39.27% | 4.84% | 1.26% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $157.79B | 14.61 | 61.10% | 3.58% | 18.71% | 11.24% | |
69 Neutral | $113.14B | 12.88 | 14.71% | 4.58% | -9.32% | 120.62% | |
64 Neutral | $157.91B | 18.21 | 8.67% | 6.65% | 4.44% | 128.96% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NVO
Novo Nordisk
35.29
-30.49
-46.35%
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb
59.73
3.04
5.37%
GILD
Gilead Sciences
136.34
27.94
25.78%
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson
242.49
93.40
62.64%
PFE
Pfizer
27.77
4.89
21.38%
SNY
Sanofi
46.72
-5.94
-11.28%
Novo Nordisk Corporate Events
Novo Nordisk Updates Articles of Association and Capital Increase Mandate
Mar 27, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Novo Nordisk A/S filed an updated set of Articles of Association outlining its corporate governance framework, share structure and shareholder rights. The document confirms a fully paid-up share capital of DKK 446.5 million spli...
Novo Nordisk Wins FDA Nod for First Once‑Weekly Basal Insulin Awiqli in U.S.
Mar 27, 2026
On 27 March 2026, Novo Nordisk announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Awiqli, the first once-weekly, long-acting basal insulin for adults with type 2 diabetes, offering an alternative to daily basal injections. The drug, del...
Novo Nordisk AGM Backs 2025 Dividend, Expands Capital Mandates and Refreshes Board
Mar 26, 2026
Novo Nordisk held its Annual General Meeting in Bagsværd, Denmark, on 26 March 2026, approving the 2025 statutory annual report, profit distribution and a total 2025 dividend of DKK 11.70 per A and B share, including a final DKK 7.95 to be pa...
Novo Nordisk Advances DKK 15 Billion Share Buyback, Holds 0.6% in Treasury Shares
Mar 23, 2026
Novo Nordisk has been executing a significant share repurchase programme as part of its capital allocation strategy, targeting up to DKK 15 billion of B-share buybacks over a 12‑month period that began on 4 February 2026. The plan is conduct...
Novo Nordisk Wins U.S. Approval for High‑Dose Wegovy to Deepen Obesity Franchise
Mar 20, 2026
Novo Nordisk has secured U.S. FDA approval for Wegovy HD, a once-weekly 7.2 mg semaglutide injection for long-term weight management, marking the first GLP-1 cleared under the Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher pilot programme as annou...
Novo Nordisk Ramps Up 2026 Share Buy‑Back, Holding 0.5% of Capital as Treasury Stock
Mar 17, 2026
Novo Nordisk has been executing a sizeable share repurchase initiative as part of its capital allocation strategy, targeting buy‑backs of up to DKK 15 billion over the 12‑month period that began on 4 February 2026. Within this broader ...
Novo Nordisk Details Progress of DKK 15 Billion Share Buyback Programme
Mar 9, 2026
On 4 February 2026, Novo Nordisk launched a DKK 15 billion, 12‑month share repurchase programme, with a sub‑programme to buy back up to DKK 3.8 billion of B shares between 4 February and 4 May 2026. As of 6 March 2026, the company had ...
Novo Nordisk Employees Elect New Board Representatives Ahead of March AGM
Mar 2, 2026
On 2 March 2026, Novo Nordisk employees completed the election of new employee representatives to the company’s board, filling four seats with two new and two re-elected members, along with four substitutes for the next four-year term. The n...
Novo Nordisk Details Progress of 2026 Share Buyback Programme
Mar 2, 2026
On 4 February 2026, Novo Nordisk A/S launched a share repurchase programme under EU Safe Harbour rules as part of a broader plan to buy back up to DKK 15 billion of shares over a 12‑month period. Under the sub‑programme running from 4 ...
Novo Nordisk Advances DKK 15 Billion Share Buyback, Lifts Treasury Stake to 0.5%
Feb 23, 2026
On 4 February 2026, Novo Nordisk launched a 12‑month share repurchase programme of up to DKK 15 billion, structured under EU Safe Harbour rules to provide regulatory protection for its buyback activity. Under a specific sub‑programme r...
Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema Misses Non‑Inferiority Goal but Delivers 23% Weight Loss in REDEFINE 4 Trial
Feb 23, 2026
On 23 February 2026, Novo Nordisk reported headline phase 3 data from its REDEFINE 4 obesity trial, showing that once-weekly CagriSema, a fixed-dose combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide, led to 23% weight loss at 84 weeks in people with obe...
Novo Nordisk Calls Hybrid Annual General Meeting and Proposes New Board Members for March 26, 2026
Feb 20, 2026
Novo Nordisk has convened its Annual General Meeting for 26 March 2026 at 14:00 CET, to be held as a hybrid event allowing both physical attendance in Copenhagen and virtual participation via computer or mobile devices. Shareholders are encouraged...
Novo Nordisk Advances DKK 15 Billion Share Buyback Programme in February 2026
Feb 17, 2026
Novo Nordisk has stepped up its capital return efforts with a new share repurchase initiative launched on 4 February 2026 under EU Safe Harbour rules. The programme, part of a broader plan to buy back up to DKK 15 billion of B shares over 12 month...
Novo Nordisk CFO Sells DKK 8.4 Million in Company Shares
Feb 11, 2026
On 10 February 2026, Novo Nordisk’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Karsten Munk Knudsen sold a total of 26,557 Novo Nordisk B shares in separate market transactions. The disposals, disclosed on 11 February 2026 under EU...
Novo Nordisk Discloses Executive Share Sale to Cover Tax on Long-Term Incentive Shares
Feb 10, 2026
On 9 February 2026, Novo Nordisk Executive Vice President for RD and Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange sold 22,000 Novo Nordisk B shares on Nasdaq Copenhagen at DKK 319.80 per share, for a total value of DKK 7,035,600. The sale was carri...
Novo Nordisk Begins DKK 15 Billion Share Buyback, Details Early February Purchases
Feb 9, 2026
On 4 February 2026, Novo Nordisk launched a new share repurchase programme under EU Safe Harbour rules as part of a broader plan to buy back up to DKK 15 billion of B shares over a 12‑month period. The company aims to repurchase up to DKK 3....
Novo Nordisk Publishes 2025 Annual Report
Feb 5, 2026
On 4 February 2026, Novo Nordisk A/S published its annual report for the 2025 financial year, making the document available to investors in digital and iXBRL formats via its website. The filing underscores the company’s continued transparenc...
Novo Nordisk Launches DKK 3.8 Billion Share Buyback as Part of 2026 Repurchase Plan
Feb 5, 2026
On 4 February 2026, Novo Nordisk launched the execution of its 2026 share repurchase programme of up to DKK 15 billion, starting with a new buyback of up to DKK 3.8 billion to run from 4 February to 4 May 2026. The buyback, capped at 400 million B...
Novo Nordisk Discloses Management Share Transfers Under Long-Term Incentive Plan
Feb 5, 2026
On 4 February 2026, several senior figures at Novo Nordisk, including board member Liselotte Sofie Hyveled, President and CEO Maziar Mike Doustdar, Executive Vice President for US Operations David Moore and Executive Vice President for Internation...
Novo Nordisk Details 2025 Pay, Leadership Shake-Up and Pipeline Progress in Latest Remuneration Report
Feb 4, 2026
Novo Nordisk has published its 2025 Remuneration Report, detailing board and executive pay in a year the company describes as one of “profound transformation,” marked by management changes and solid, though slower, financial performanc...
Novo Nordisk Posts Strong 2025 Growth but Warns of 2026 Pricing Hit as Wegovy Pill Launches in US
Feb 3, 2026
Novo Nordisk reported full-year 2025 results on 3 February 2026, with sales rising 6% in Danish kroner and 10% at constant exchange rates to DKK 309.1 billion, while operating profit slipped 1% in kroner but grew 6% at constant exchange after arou...
Novo Nordisk Sets 2026 Outlook as One‑Off US Rebate Reversal Masks Underlying Growth Pressure
Feb 3, 2026
On 3 February 2026, Novo Nordisk reported that in 2025 its sales rose 10% and operating profit increased 6% at constant exchange rates, landing within previously guided ranges and supported by favourable gross‑to‑net sales adjustments ...
Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema Tops Semaglutide in Major Phase 3 Diabetes Trial
Feb 2, 2026
On 2 February 2026, Novo Nordisk reported headline phase 3 results from its REIMAGINE 2 trial showing that CagriSema, a once‑weekly fixed‑dose combination of the amylin receptor agonist cagrilintide and GLP‑1 agonist semaglutide,...
Novo Nordisk Appoints New Employee Representative to Board After Long-Serving Member Departs
Feb 2, 2026
On 31 January 2026, Novo Nordisk announced a change in its board-level employee representation, as long-serving employee representative Thomas Rantzau, who has served on the Board of Directors since 2018 and worked at the company for 22 years, dec...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.