Novo Nordisk (NVO) AI Stock Analysis

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Novo Nordisk

(NYSE:NVO)

Rating:73Outperform

Price Target:

$64.00

▲(12.32% Upside)

Novo Nordisk's strong financial performance and reasonable valuation are key strengths, supporting a solid stock score. However, technical indicators suggest bearish trends, and the earnings call revealed challenges in the U.S. market that temper the outlook. Strategic initiatives and international growth provide long-term potential, but near-term risks are notable.

Positive Factors

Market Expansion

Approval in MASH could help to broaden Wegovy's coverage and add an incremental $1.9B in peak WW unadjusted revenues.

Product Development

Management is excited by the oral sema obesity opportunity which should benefit from a bolstered cash pay option.

Regulatory Approvals

Wegovy's approval in MASH marks a small win in what has been a more difficult year for Novo shares.

Negative Factors

Competition

Lilly's Mounjaro & Zepbound are expected to continue to take incremental U.S. share from Ozempic and Wegovy.

Financial Guidance

Novo Nordisk announced a second guidance cut, reflecting continued weakness across the incretin business.

Sales Performance

Lower Wegovy sales expectations were specifically impacted by continued/higher-than-expected compounding in the US market and slower-than-expected market expansion.

Novo Nordisk (NVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$253.64B

Dividend Yield2.65%

Average Volume (3M)22.52M

Price to Earnings (P/E)15.7

Beta (1Y)1.09

Revenue Growth21.52%

EPS Growth24.50%

CountryUS

Employees77,406

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength47

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.93

Shares Outstanding3,390,128,000

10 Day Avg. Volume18,033,193

30 Day Avg. Volume22,524,993

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.26

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.02

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.22

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.87

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$68.50

Price Target Upside20.22% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

Novo Nordisk Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNovo Nordisk is a global healthcare company headquartered in Denmark, specializing in the development and manufacturing of pharmaceuticals for diabetes care, obesity management, and other chronic diseases. Established in 1923, the company operates primarily in the biopharmaceutical sector, focusing on insulin and GLP-1 receptor agonists for diabetes treatment, as well as hormone replacement therapy and treatments for hemophilia and growth disorders. Novo Nordisk is recognized for its commitment to innovation and sustainability within the healthcare industry.

How the Company Makes MoneyNovo Nordisk generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, with a strong focus on diabetes care, which constitutes a significant portion of its income. The company’s key revenue streams include insulin products, GLP-1 receptor agonists, and other diabetes-related medications. Additionally, Novo Nordisk earns revenue from its portfolio of products for obesity management, hemophilia treatments, and hormone replacement therapies. The company benefits from strong partnerships with healthcare providers and organizations, which facilitate product distribution and access. Furthermore, Novo Nordisk invests heavily in research and development, leading to new product launches that enhance its market position and profitability. The company's global presence and established brand reputation also contribute to its financial success.

Novo Nordisk Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Details revenue from various business segments, providing insight into Novo Nordisk's diverse income streams and strategic focus areas.

Chart InsightsNovo Nordisk's diabetes revenue shows steady growth, but obesity treatment sales are surging, reflecting a strategic focus on this segment. The latest earnings call highlights a 65% growth in obesity care sales, driven by increased patient reach and international expansion. However, challenges with compounded GLP-1 drugs in the U.S. and a reduced full-year outlook due to slower uptake of branded treatments pose risks. Despite these challenges, the company's commitment to expanding access and achieving regulatory milestones indicates potential for sustained growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Novo Nordisk Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: 21.62%|

Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Novo Nordisk reported strong sales and profit growth in the first half of 2025, with significant expansion in obesity care and international operations. However, the company lowered its full-year outlook due to challenges in the U.S. market and decreased free cash flow, reflecting both positive achievements and areas of concern.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Sales and Profit Growth

In the first 6 months of 2025, Novo Nordisk delivered 18% sales growth and 29% operating profit growth at constant exchange rates.

Expansion in Obesity Care

Obesity care sales increased by 58%, driven by 36% growth in U.S. operations and 125% growth in international operations.

Increased Patient Reach

Novo Nordisk is now serving almost 46 million patients with diabetes and obesity treatments, an increase of more than 3.5 million compared to the first 6 months of 2024.

Progress in R&D

Ozempic received a positive opinion by the EMA for peripheral arterial disease treatment, and Novo Nordisk announced the advancement of amycretin into Phase III clinical development.

International Operations Growth

Sales in international operations grew by 19%, notably with a 335% growth rate in Wegovy sales alone.

Negative Updates

Lowered Full Year Outlook

Novo Nordisk lowered its full-year outlook for 2025 due to lower growth expectations for Wegovy in the U.S. obesity market and Ozempic in the U.S. GLP-1 diabetes market.

Challenges with Compounding in the U.S.

Wegovy sales growth has been partially countered by unsafe and unlawful mass compounding, with an estimated 1 million patients on compounded GLP-1s in the U.S.

Decreased Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow in the first 6 months of 2025 was DKK 33.6 billion compared to DKK 41.3 billion in the first 6 months of 2024, driven by increased capital expenditures.

Updated Guidance Reflects Lower Growth Expectations

Sales growth for 2025 is expected to be between 8% to 14% at constant exchange rates, reflecting lower-than-expected sales growth mainly driven by lower volume growth of GLP-1 treatment in the U.S.

Company Guidance

During the Q2 2025 Novo Nordisk Earnings Conference Call, the company reported an 18% increase in sales and a 29% rise in operating profit for the first half of 2025. However, Novo Nordisk adjusted its full-year sales growth outlook to 8-14% due to lower-than-expected growth for Wegovy in the U.S. and Ozempic in the U.S. GLP-1 diabetes market, as well as lower penetration for Wegovy in select international operations. The gross margin decreased to 83.4%, with sales and distribution costs rising by 15%. Obesity care sales surged by 58%, driven by a 36% increase in U.S. operations and 125% in international operations. The company continues to expand its product offerings, initiating new clinical trials and partnerships to meet the extensive unmet needs in diabetes and obesity markets. The call also highlighted strategic changes, with Maziar Mike Doustdar stepping in as the new CEO, focusing on execution and operational efficiency.

Novo Nordisk Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Novo Nordisk exhibits strong financial health with impressive profitability and growth. The income statement shows consistent revenue growth and high margins. The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with manageable leverage, and cash flow metrics indicate strong cash generation and effective earnings conversion.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Novo Nordisk has demonstrated strong income statement performance with consistent revenue growth, evidenced by a TTM revenue increase of 4.39% compared to the previous annual period. Gross profit margin stands at a robust 84.34%, while the net profit margin is impressive at 34.51%. EBIT margin is 44.52% and EBITDA margin is 50.82%, indicating highly efficient operations and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet of Novo Nordisk shows a solid financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86, reflecting manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 75.53%, highlighting effective use of shareholders' funds. With an equity ratio of 28.32%, the company maintains a balanced capital structure, though there is room to improve equity financing.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Novo Nordisk's cash flow performance is robust, with a TTM free cash flow growth rate of 7.29%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.25, suggesting strong cash generation relative to profits. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.71, indicating effective conversion of earnings to free cash flow for reinvestment or distribution.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	311.94B	290.40B	232.26B	176.95B	140.80B	126.95B
Gross Profit	261.87B	245.88B	196.50B	148.51B	117.14B	106.01B
EBITDA	171.27B	137.38B	113.33B	76.41B	64.83B	58.56B
Net Income	111.07B	100.99B	83.68B	55.52B	47.76B	42.14B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	482.15B	465.80B	314.49B	241.26B	194.51B	144.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.93B	26.31B	30.23B	23.57B	17.48B	12.76B
Total Debt	99.27B	102.79B	27.01B	25.78B	26.64B	10.36B
Total Liabilities	314.09B	322.31B	207.93B	157.77B	123.76B	81.60B
Stockholders Equity	168.07B	143.49B	106.56B	83.49B	70.75B	63.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	61.99B	69.66B	70.01B	64.13B	47.62B	29.87B
Operating Cash Flow	121.53B	120.97B	108.91B	78.89B	55.00B	51.95B
Investing Cash Flow	-133.04B	-128.90B	-43.89B	-24.92B	-31.61B	-22.44B
Financing Cash Flow	-22.34B	8.73B	-63.16B	-51.80B	-25.49B	-32.24B

Novo Nordisk Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price56.98

Price Trends

50DMA

62.47

Negative

100DMA

64.41

Negative

200DMA

76.78

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-2.04

Negative

RSI

52.58

Neutral

STOCH

89.32

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 56.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.63, below the 50-day MA of 62.47, and below the 200-day MA of 76.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.32 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NVO.

Novo Nordisk Risk Analysis

Novo Nordisk disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Novo Nordisk reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Novo Nordisk Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (51)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PFE	82 Outperform	$146.35B	13.68	12.16%	6.61%	14.72%	―
JNJ	78 Outperform	$431.79B	19.18	30.21%	2.80%	4.69%	34.88%
SNY	76 Outperform	$124.82B	12.77	8.39%	4.31%	-9.32%	120.62%
NVO	73 Outperform	$253.64B	15.67	75.95%	2.65%	21.52%	24.50%
BMY	68 Neutral	$97.54B	19.34	29.31%	5.13%	2.57%	―
GILD	68 Neutral	$142.41B	22.83	33.26%	2.72%	3.69%	501.26%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.89B	-0.12	-39.83%	2.16%	21.38%	-1.56%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NVO

Novo Nordisk

56.98

-75.67

-57.04%

BMY

Bristol-Myers Squibb

47.92

1.85

4.02%

GILD

Gilead Sciences

114.77

40.21

53.93%

JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

179.29

19.87

12.46%

PFE

Pfizer

25.88

-1.14

-4.22%

SNY

Sanofi

51.35

-3.18

-5.83%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 23, 2025