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Nvidia (NVDA)
NASDAQ:NVDA

Nvidia (NVDA) AI Stock Analysis

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NVNvidia
(NASDAQ:NVDA)
75Outperform
Nvidia's overall stock score reflects its excellent financial performance and positive earnings call outlook, tempered by bearish technical indicators and a high valuation. The company's robust revenue growth and strong product launches are significant strengths, while the stock's technical weakness and high P/E ratio are key risks.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Nvidia's earnings release was largely positive, with an 'amazing' Blackwell ramp driving upside results and guidance.
Revenue
Nvidia posted revenue of $39.3 billion, ahead of the Street consensus, with EPS also surpassing expectations.
Negative Factors
Gross Margin
The company's focus on meeting aggressive Blackwell demand has left it prioritizing manufacturing volumes at the expense of maximizing production efficiencies, which is weighing on near-term gross margin results.

Nvidia (NVDA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Nvidia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNvidia Corporation (NVDA) is a leading technology company primarily engaged in designing and manufacturing graphics processing units (GPUs) for gaming, professional visualization, data centers, and automotive markets. Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, Nvidia has pioneered developments in computer graphics and parallel computing, extending its reach into sectors like artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC). Its core products include GPUs under the GeForce brand for gaming, the Quadro brand for professional graphics, the Tesla and DGX brands for AI data centers, and DRIVE platform for autonomous vehicles.
How the Company Makes MoneyNvidia generates revenue through the sale of its GPUs and related hardware, software, and services. The company's primary revenue streams include its Gaming segment, which sells GeForce GPUs for gaming and gaming laptops, and the Data Center segment, where it provides powerful computing solutions for AI, deep learning, and data analytics. Additional revenue comes from the Professional Visualization segment, which targets industries requiring high-end graphics capabilities, and the Automotive segment, which offers AI-based solutions for autonomous driving and in-car infotainment systems. Nvidia also earns through licensing its technology and forming strategic partnerships with leading tech companies, contributing to its sustained growth and innovation in the AI and HPC markets.

Nvidia Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nvidia's financial health is exceptional with significant revenue and profit growth, strong margins, and a solid balance sheet. The company effectively manages cash flow, maintaining high liquidity and low leverage, positioning it well for future growth and stability.
Income Statement
95
Very Positive
Nvidia has shown outstanding performance with significant revenue growth from $60.92 billion to $113.27 billion TTM, indicating a growth rate of 86.01%. Gross profit margin remains strong at 75.86% TTM. The net profit margin has also improved to 55.69% TTM, showcasing exceptional profitability. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 62.71% and 66.07%, respectively.
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Nvidia maintains a solid balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16, reflecting low leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 95.69%, indicating efficient use of equity. The equity ratio stands at a healthy 68.63%, highlighting stability and strong capitalization.
Cash Flow
92
Very Positive
The company exhibits excellent cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 109.27% TTM. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.93, indicating good cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.90 demonstrates strong ability to generate cash relative to net income.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
113.27B60.92B26.97B26.91B16.68B10.92B
Gross Profit
85.93B44.30B15.36B17.48B10.40B6.77B
EBIT
71.03B32.97B4.22B10.04B4.53B2.85B
EBITDA
74.87B35.58B5.99B11.35B5.69B3.40B
Net Income Common Stockholders
63.07B29.76B4.37B9.75B4.33B2.80B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
25.98B25.98B13.30B21.21B11.56B10.90B
Total Assets
65.73B65.73B41.18B44.19B28.79B17.32B
Total Debt
11.06B11.06B11.86B11.69B7.60B2.55B
Net Debt
3.78B3.78B8.47B9.70B6.75B-8.34B
Total Liabilities
22.75B22.75B19.08B17.57B11.90B5.11B
Stockholders Equity
42.98B42.98B22.10B26.61B16.89B12.20B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
56.55B27.02B3.81B8.13B4.69B4.27B
Operating Cash Flow
58.96B28.09B5.64B9.11B5.82B4.76B
Investing Cash Flow
-19.33B-10.57B7.38B-9.83B-19.68B6.14B
Financing Cash Flow
-36.04B-13.63B-11.62B1.86B3.80B-792.00M

Nvidia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price115.99
Price Trends
50DMA
132.88
Negative
100DMA
136.31
Negative
200DMA
126.96
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.41
Positive
RSI
38.53
Neutral
STOCH
18.79
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVDA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 115.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 129.51, below the 50-day MA of 132.88, and below the 200-day MA of 126.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVDA.

Nvidia Risk Analysis

Nvidia disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nvidia reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nvidia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$173.83B16.8039.27%2.18%12.13%36.17%
75
Outperform
$2.83T39.4891.87%0.03%114.20%146.26%
AMAMD
73
Outperform
$161.82B97.922.85%13.69%91.75%
MUMU
71
Outperform
$100.88B26.158.30%0.51%79.80%
67
Neutral
$878.27B151.868.71%1.16%43.99%-62.55%
59
Neutral
$22.39B11.53-18.05%2.31%5.00%-25.89%
54
Neutral
$92.36B-18.89%2.20%-2.08%-1212.72%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NVDA
Nvidia
115.99
30.05
34.97%
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
100.75
-104.38
-50.88%
AVGO
Broadcom
187.48
54.99
41.51%
INTC
Intel
21.33
-21.38
-50.06%
MU
Micron
91.20
-2.87
-3.05%
QCOM
Qualcomm
154.46
-4.67
-2.93%

Nvidia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: -11.65% | Next Earnings Date: May 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted NVIDIA's record-breaking revenue and strong growth in data center and automotive segments. However, challenges remain in the gaming and networking sectors, and the company faces margin pressures during the Blackwell ramp. The positive aspects of revenue growth and successful product launches outweigh the lowlights, indicating a generally positive outlook.
Highlights
Record-Breaking Quarterly Revenue
Revenue of $39.3 billion was up 12% sequentially and up 78% year-on-year, exceeding the outlook of $37.5 billion.
Data Center Revenue Surge
Data center revenue for fiscal 2025 was $115.2 billion, more than doubling from the prior year. Fourth-quarter data center revenue was a record $35.6 billion, up 16% sequentially and 93% year-on-year.
Successful Blackwell Product Launch
Blackwell sales exceeded expectations with $11 billion in revenue and marked the fastest product ramp in the company's history.
Automotive Vertical Growth
Automotive revenue was a record $570 million, up 27% sequentially and up 103% year-on-year, driven by autonomous vehicles and partnerships with companies like Toyota and Aurora.
Professional Visualization Business Growth
Revenue of $511 million was up 5% sequentially and 10% year-on-year, with full-year revenue of $1.9 billion increasing 21% year-on-year.
Strong Outlook for Fiscal 2026
Total revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to be $43 billion, with continued strong demand for Blackwell.
Lowlights
Gaming Revenue Decline
Gaming revenue of $2.5 billion decreased 22% sequentially and 11% year-on-year, impacted by supply constraints.
Networking Revenue Decline
Networking revenue declined 3% sequentially, despite robust attachment to GPU compute systems.
China Market Constraints
Data center sales in China remained well below previous levels due to export controls, with shipments expected to remain at current percentages.
Gross Margin Pressure
GAAP gross margins were 73%, and non-GAAP were 73.5%, down sequentially with expectations to remain in the low seventies during Blackwell ramp.
Company Guidance
During NVIDIA's fourth-quarter earnings call for fiscal 2025, Colette Kress provided guidance highlighting robust financial performance and future expectations. Q4 revenue reached a record $39.3 billion, up 12% sequentially and 78% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of $37.5 billion. The full-year revenue for fiscal 2025 was $130.5 billion, a 114% increase from the previous year. Data center revenue was a significant contributor, with fiscal 2025 revenue totaling $115.2 billion, more than doubling from the prior year. The Blackwell architecture played a crucial role in this growth, generating $11 billion in Q4 alone, marking the fastest product ramp in NVIDIA's history. Looking ahead, NVIDIA expects Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue to be approximately $43 billion, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins projected at 70.6% and 71%, respectively. The company anticipates continued strong demand for its Blackwell architecture, which is expected to drive sequential growth in both data center and gaming sectors.

Nvidia Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Nvidia Appoints Ellen Ochoa to Board of Directors
Neutral
Nov 7, 2024

NVIDIA Corporation has appointed Ellen Ochoa to its Board of Directors, increasing the board count to thirteen. Ochoa will join the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, receiving initial and pro-rated equity grants as part of her compensation, along with a cash retainer. This move reflects NVIDIA’s commitment to strengthening its governance and leadership framework.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.