Nuvation Bio Inc (NUVB)
NYSE:NUVB
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Nuvation Bio
(NYSE:NUVB)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-11.42% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/10/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financials: strong revenue acceleration and margins are outweighed by ongoing large losses and heavy cash burn. The earnings call was a clear positive (reiterated guidance, improving product traction, and strong cash position with no expected financing need), while technicals are neutral and valuation support is limited by a high P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
High revenue growth & gross margin
TTM revenue up 127.4% paired with ~91.6% gross margin indicates robust top-line acceleration and attractive unit economics. Durable revenue momentum and high product-level margins support scalable commercialization and long-term margin sustainability if launch execution and market access continue.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn
Material negative operating and free cash flow (TTM ~ -$125M) shows the company is not yet self-funding and continues to consume cash to support launch and development. If revenue ramp or gross-to-net trends underperform, runway and funding flexibility could be pressured absent additional finite resources.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High revenue growth & gross margin
TTM revenue up 127.4% paired with ~91.6% gross margin indicates robust top-line acceleration and attractive unit economics. Durable revenue momentum and high product-level margins support scalable commercialization and long-term margin sustainability if launch execution and market access continue.
Read all positive factors
Nuvation Bio (NUVB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.57B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)69.0
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth1205.52%
EPS Growth81.79%
CountryUS
Employees273
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.42
Shares Outstanding348,201,970
10 Day Avg. Volume4,466,692
30 Day Avg. Volume4,129,016
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.21
Price to Book (P/B)10.01
Price to Sales (P/S)48.65
P/FCF Ratio-17.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-11.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.17Price Target Upside159.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$203.16M
Nuvation Bio Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nuvation Bio Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of therapeutic candidates for oncology. The company's lead product candidate is NUV-422, a small molecule inhibitor targeting cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK)2,...
How the Company Makes Money
Nuvation Bio is a clinical-stage biotechnology company and, as such, typically does not generate material recurring revenue from product sales because its drug candidates are still in development and not yet approved for commercialization. As a re...
Nuvation Bio Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial and clinical momentum for Iptrozy: robust physician awareness (97%), growing first‑line mix (>50% of new starts), meaningful sequential product revenue growth (18% QoQ to $18.5M), and differentiated durability and CNS efficacy (50‑month PFS/DOR in TKI‑naive; 66% intracranial RR). Financially, the quarter was bolstered by a near‑term collaboration upfront (~$60M) and a healthy cash position ($533.7M) with $50M credit available. Key challenges include a steady absolute level of new patient starts (~200/quarter), testing shortfalls in the community (<50% in some centers) that limit incidence capture, upward pressure on gross‑to‑net (targeting stabilization in the high‑20s to ~30%), and sizeable operating expenses ($73.5M). Overall, positive clinical differentiation, market access progress, partnerships, and balance sheet strength outweigh the operational and market access headwinds.Positive Updates
Consistent New Patient Starts and Growing Launch Momentum
Approximately 200 new patient starts with Iptrozy in Q1 (third consecutive quarter of ~200), totaling over 600 since launch; first-line (TKI‑naive) proportion of new starts increased from ~30% to ~40% to now >50%.
Negative Updates
Plateau in Absolute New Patient Starts
New patient starts have been steady at ~200 per quarter for three quarters, indicating that total new starts have not yet expanded despite rising first‑line share and high physician awareness.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consistent New Patient Starts and Growing Launch Momentum
Approximately 200 new patient starts with Iptrozy in Q1 (third consecutive quarter of ~200), totaling over 600 since launch; first-line (TKI‑naive) proportion of new starts increased from ~30% to ~40% to now >50%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated that they expect to meet consensus 2026 net‑revenue estimates and emphasized drivers and assumptions: Q1 total revenue was $83.2M with Iptrozy net U.S. product revenue of $18.5M (up 18% QoQ) driven by ~200 new patient starts this quarter (≈600+ since launch) and a rising share of TKI‑naive first‑line starts (~30% → ~40% → >50%) with first‑line growth ~+35% q/q; clinical durability underpinning the outlook includes median DOR/PFS ≈50 months in TKI‑naive, DOR ≈20 months and pooled OS ≈30 months in pretreated patients, first‑line RR ≈90% and 2L intracranial RR ≈66%; financial guidance assumptions include gross‑to‑net normalizing to the high‑20s/≈30% (Q1 uptick from ≈25%), Q1 operating expenses $73.5M (R&D $35.0M; SG&A $38.3M), cash of $533.7M with $50M undrawn term‑loan availability, $64.7M collaboration revenue this quarter (including ≈$60M Eisai upfront) plus ~$1.7M in royalties, an expected ≈$30M Eisai EU milestone in 2027, and the statement that they do not expect to need additional external financing.Nuvation Bio Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 143.05M | 62.90M | 7.87M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 131.08M | 54.46M | 795.00K | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -138.49M | -190.94M | -566.91M | -75.58M | -119.53M | -93.13M |
| Net Income | -145.99M | -204.63M | -567.94M | -75.80M | -104.20M | -86.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 610.24M | 594.82M | 540.63M | 621.48M | 672.14M | 776.15M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 533.73M | 529.21M | 502.69M | 611.21M | 661.01M | 765.39M |
| Total Debt | 9.83M | 10.15M | 8.91M | 4.01M | 4.26M | 3.06M |
| Total Liabilities | 290.68M | 289.11M | 76.84M | 16.36M | 17.07M | 30.15M |
| Stockholders Equity | 319.56M | 305.72M | 463.79M | 605.12M | 655.08M | 746.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -126.06M | -173.78M | -130.57M | -68.07M | -96.48M | -68.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -125.73M | -173.43M | -130.41M | -68.00M | -96.11M | -68.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.70M | 99.52M | 122.70M | 8.92M | 63.46M | -454.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 202.03M | 202.53M | 331.00K | 628.00K | 1.33M | 625.53M |
Nuvation Bio Technical Analysis
Positive
5.08
Price Trends
4.58
Positive
5.35
Negative
5.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
53.79
Neutral
51.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NUVB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.62, above the 50-day MA of 4.58, and below the 200-day MA of 5.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NUVB.
Nuvation Bio Risk Analysis
Nuvation Bio disclosed 89 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nuvation Bio reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nuvation Bio Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $9.36B | -25.13 | -43.02% | ― | -100.00% | -24.90% | |
57 Neutral | $2.35B | -9.91 | -87.00% | ― | -36.24% | 11.52% | |
56 Neutral | $1.52B | -38.19 | -1768.51% | ― | 652.08% | -116.59% | |
55 Neutral | $1.19B | -13.91 | -56.41% | ― | -31.58% | -27.41% | |
52 Neutral | $1.57B | 69.02 | -44.10% | ― | 1205.52% | 81.79% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $2.55B | -26.05 | -21.04% | ― | ― | 13.79% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NUVB
Nuvation Bio
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.