Northern (NTRS)
NASDAQ:NTRS
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Northern
(NASDAQ:NTRS)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$147.00
â–¼(-4.54% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/25/26
The score is held back primarily by mixed financial performance (sharp 2025 revenue decline, elevated leverage, and cash-flow volatility) and weak near-term technical momentum. These are partly offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook with improved medium-term targets and solid capital returns, plus a reasonable P/E and moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Large-scale asset servicing & AUM
Northern Trust's massive custody and AUM scale creates a durable, sticky fee base derived from institutional custody, administration and recurring trust fees. High AUC/A and diversified institutional flows reduce reliance on single product cycles and support stable revenue from long-term client mandates.
Negative Factors
Revenue and cash-flow volatility
Large year-to-year swings in top line and cash flow reduce predictability for capital allocation and make operating results sensitive to timing, notables and market cycles. Volatility complicates multi-period planning for buybacks, investments and margin targets, raising execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large-scale asset servicing & AUM
Northern Trust's massive custody and AUM scale creates a durable, sticky fee base derived from institutional custody, administration and recurring trust fees. High AUC/A and diversified institutional flows reduce reliance on single product cycles and support stable revenue from long-term client mandates.
Read all positive factors
Northern (NTRS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$28.54B
Dividend Yield2.21%
Average Volume (3M)1.01M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.7
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth-4.52%
EPS Growth7.01%
CountryUS
Employees23,400
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.69
Shares Outstanding185,320,920
10 Day Avg. Volume787,397
30 Day Avg. Volume1,006,210
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.43
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)1.79
P/FCF Ratio4.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue-1.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-1.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.92
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$156.96Price Target Upside1.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)10.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.61B
Northern Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset S...
How the Company Makes Money
Northern Trust generates revenue primarily through its asset management and asset servicing divisions. The company earns fees based on assets under management (AUM) from investment management services, which include mutual funds, private equity, a...
Northern Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong underlying operating performance and strategic progress: record NII, solid fee growth excluding notables, AUC/AUM expansion, productivity gains and continued product and distribution momentum across wealth, asset servicing and asset management. These positives were partly offset by Q4 notable charges (notably severance), higher reported expenses, an expense-to-trust-fee ratio slightly above target, and some balance sheet/capital and deposit normalization risks. On balance, management signaled confidence by raising medium-term targets and returning significant capital to shareholders while planning further productivity and AI-driven efficiencies.Positive Updates
Revenue and Fee Growth (Excluding Notables)
Fourth quarter revenue up 9% year-over-year excluding notables; full-year 2025 revenue up 7% excluding notables. Trust, investment and other servicing fees grew 7% year-over-year in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Net Unfavorable Notables and Impact on Reported Results
Q4 included $69 million in net unfavorable notable items (including $59M severance and $19M Visa swap expense). Including all notables, full-year 2025 revenue decreased 2% and EPS declined 11% versus 2024 (prior year included large favorable notables).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Fee Growth (Excluding Notables)
Fourth quarter revenue up 9% year-over-year excluding notables; full-year 2025 revenue up 7% excluding notables. Trust, investment and other servicing fees grew 7% year-over-year in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On guidance, Northern Trust now expects full‑year 2026 net interest income to grow low‑ to mid‑single digits (assuming current forward curves and a relatively stable deposit mix), plans to generate more than 100 basis points of positive operating leverage, and intends to return more than 100% of earnings to shareholders; it reiterated an expected 2026 effective tax rate of ~26–26.5%, is moving away from an expense‑growth target to focus on positive operating leverage and a downward direction of expense growth, raised medium‑term targets to a 33% pretax margin and return on equity in the mid‑teens while targeting expense‑to‑trust‑fees below 110%, seeks double‑digit EPS growth through cycles, and is boosting its 2026 productivity target by 10% after achieving productivity savings of more than 4% of the expense base in 2025 (medium‑term = three–five years).Northern Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 14.30B | 15.88B | 12.12B | 7.75B | 6.49B |
| Gross Profit | 8.09B | 8.29B | 6.75B | 6.75B | 6.55B |
| EBITDA | 3.21B | 3.38B | 2.10B | 2.32B | 2.53B |
| Net Income | 1.74B | 2.03B | 1.11B | 1.34B | 1.55B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 177.13B | 155.51B | 150.78B | 155.04B | 183.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 63.78B | 56.54B | 64.93B | 74.52B | 108.29B |
| Total Debt | 16.43B | 15.99B | 17.24B | 14.85B | 8.43B |
| Total Liabilities | 164.17B | 142.72B | 138.89B | 143.78B | 171.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.96B | 12.79B | 11.90B | 11.26B | 12.02B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.46B | -1.23B | 1.95B | 1.67B | 840.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.53B | -486.00M | 2.63B | 2.39B | 1.36B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -20.17B | -2.56B | 4.78B | 25.93B | -18.60B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 15.18B | 3.44B | -7.18B | -26.44B | 16.07B |
Northern Technical Analysis
Positive
153.99
Price Trends
143.35
Positive
140.86
Positive
133.76
Positive
Market Momentum
3.44
Negative
73.24
Negative
98.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 153.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 142.41, above the 50-day MA of 143.35, and above the 200-day MA of 133.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.24 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRS.
Northern Risk Analysis
Northern disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Northern reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Northern Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $9.63B | 14.01 | 30.29% | 1.18% | 9.33% | 33.17% | |
73 Outperform | $20.54B | 12.86 | 19.58% | 4.88% | 4.26% | 0.42% | |
69 Neutral | $88.71B | 14.74 | 12.66% | 1.71% | 4.22% | 51.01% | |
69 Neutral | $13.37B | 12.10 | 5.06% | 5.33% | 2.31% | 5.71% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $39.47B | 12.46 | 10.76% | 2.43% | 5.62% | 49.49% | |
58 Neutral | $28.54B | 13.74 | 13.45% | 2.21% | -4.52% | 7.01% |
* Financial Sector Average
NTRS
Northern
155.82
68.74
78.95%
BK
Bank of New York Mellon
130.51
54.34
71.35%
BEN
Franklin Resources
26.43
9.43
55.50%
SEIC
SEI Investments Company
79.80
7.41
10.23%
STT
State Street
141.78
62.60
79.06%
TROW
T Rowe Price
95.84
12.75
15.34%
Northern Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Northern Trust Highlights Asset Management Growth at Conference
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Northern Trust Corporation executives David W. Fox, Jr. and Michael Hunstad presented an overview of Northern Trust Asset Management at the Bank of America Securities 2026 Financial Services Conference in Miami Beach. The pre...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Northern Trust posts stronger Q4 earnings and revenue
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Northern Trust reported that fourth-quarter 2025 net income rose to $466.0 million, or $2.42 per diluted share, up from $2.29 in the third quarter of 2025 and $2.26 a year earlier, as total revenue on a fully taxable equivalen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.