Northern (NTRS)
NASDAQ:NTRS
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Northern
(NASDAQ:NTRS)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$185.00
â–²(16.24% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:05/01/26
NTRS scores well primarily due to strong technical momentum and supportive valuation (P/E 12.3 with a ~2.34% yield), reinforced by an upbeat earnings call with raised NII guidance and strong operating leverage. The main constraint on the score is financial-statement variability, including multi-year revenue swings, inconsistent cash flow, and a notable shift in leverage across periods.
Positive Factors
Scale in Asset Servicing
Northern’s enormous custody and administration scale drives recurring, high‑margin servicing revenue and operating leverage. Large AUC/A supports durable client stickiness, fee economics, and cross‑sell across wealth, custody and trading services, sustaining profit resilience over time.
Negative Factors
Cash flow volatility
Multi‑year volatility in operating and free cash flows weakens predictability for capital allocation, dividends and buybacks. Irregular conversion from earnings to cash raises concern about the durability of shareholder returns and the firm’s buffer to absorb stress or fund strategic investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale in Asset Servicing
Northern’s enormous custody and administration scale drives recurring, high‑margin servicing revenue and operating leverage. Large AUC/A supports durable client stickiness, fee economics, and cross‑sell across wealth, custody and trading services, sustaining profit resilience over time.
Read all positive factors
Northern (NTRS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$29.84B
Dividend Yield2.21%
Average Volume (3M)962.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth-5.75%
EPS Growth-10.69%
CountryUS
Employees23,400
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.60
Shares Outstanding185,047,260
10 Day Avg. Volume930,964
30 Day Avg. Volume962,643
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.43
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)1.79
P/FCF Ratio4.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue-0.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-0.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$169.23Price Target Upside6.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)10.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.83B
Northern Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset S...
How the Company Makes Money
Northern Trust makes money primarily through a mix of (1) fee-based revenues tied to assets under custody/administration (AUC/A) and assets under management (AUM) and (2) net interest income from its banking activities.
1) Trust, investment, and ...
Northern Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple strong financial and operational achievements — double-digit revenue and fee growth, record quarterly NII, substantial operating-leverage driven margin expansion, robust Asset Servicing wins, continued product innovation and active capital returns — while noting some transitory headwinds (sequential NIM pressure from large short-term deposits), non‑persistent deposit inflows, modest expense growth, regulatory/market uncertainties, and an unrealized securities loss. Overall performance and guidance were upgraded in areas (NII outlook), and management emphasized strategic investments (AI, talent, alternatives) intended to sustain organic growth.Positive Updates
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Total revenue rose 14% year-over-year; net income was $526 million; EPS was $2.71, reflecting EPS growth of 43% year-over-year; return on average common equity reached 17.4% (at the higher end of the medium-term target range).
Negative Updates
Net Interest Margin Pressure Sequentially
Net interest margin (FTE) decreased sequentially to 1.75%, primarily due to several large short-term institutional deposits and the absence of a higher FTE adjustment recorded in the prior quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Total revenue rose 14% year-over-year; net income was $526 million; EPS was $2.71, reflecting EPS growth of 43% year-over-year; return on average common equity reached 17.4% (at the higher end of the medium-term target range).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: for full‑year 2026 Northern now expects net interest income to grow mid‑ to high‑single digits (raised from a prior guide of up low‑ to mid‑single digits), expects to generate more than 100 basis points of positive operating leverage, and will return at least 100% of earnings to shareholders; management also reiterated an expected effective tax rate of roughly 26.0%–26.5% for 2026, said expense momentum is expected to trend down for the remainder of the year with productivity targets on track, and reaffirmed medium‑term targets including roughly 3% organic growth and a ~33% pretax margin goal.Northern Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.57B | 14.30B | 15.88B | 12.12B | 7.75B | 6.49B |
| Gross Profit | 8.36B | 8.09B | 8.29B | 6.75B | 6.75B | 6.55B |
| EBITDA | 3.20B | 3.21B | 3.38B | 2.10B | 2.32B | 2.53B |
| Net Income | 1.87B | 1.74B | 2.03B | 1.11B | 1.34B | 1.55B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 174.57B | 177.13B | 155.51B | 150.78B | 155.04B | 183.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 60.17B | 63.78B | 56.54B | 64.93B | 74.52B | 108.29B |
| Total Debt | 16.37B | 16.43B | 15.99B | 17.24B | 14.85B | 8.43B |
| Total Liabilities | 161.59B | 164.17B | 142.72B | 138.89B | 143.78B | 171.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.99B | 12.96B | 12.79B | 11.90B | 11.26B | 12.02B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.84B | 5.46B | -1.23B | 1.95B | 1.67B | 840.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.46B | 5.53B | -486.00M | 2.63B | 2.39B | 1.36B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.40B | -20.17B | -2.56B | 4.78B | 25.93B | -18.60B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.23B | 15.18B | 3.44B | -7.18B | -26.44B | 16.07B |
Northern Technical Analysis
Positive
159.16
Price Trends
143.80
Positive
141.85
Positive
134.26
Positive
Market Momentum
4.55
Negative
76.80
Negative
90.85
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 159.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 145.64, above the 50-day MA of 143.80, and above the 200-day MA of 134.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.80 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRS.
Northern Risk Analysis
Northern disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Northern reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Northern Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $10.98B | 13.68 | 30.64% | 1.18% | 9.37% | 28.61% | |
80 Outperform | $22.09B | 10.11 | 19.58% | 4.88% | 4.23% | 5.77% | |
76 Outperform | $40.98B | 11.53 | 11.09% | 2.43% | 1.43% | 10.86% | |
74 Outperform | $90.52B | 12.56 | 13.48% | 1.71% | 1.91% | 31.72% | |
73 Outperform | $29.84B | 12.32 | 14.45% | 2.21% | -5.75% | -10.69% | |
72 Outperform | $15.43B | 8.82 | 6.69% | 5.33% | 3.11% | 89.49% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
NTRS
Northern
161.24
66.73
70.61%
BK
Bank of New York Mellon
131.88
50.50
62.05%
BEN
Franklin Resources
29.70
10.72
56.46%
SEIC
SEI Investments Company
91.27
12.36
15.67%
STT
State Street
148.08
59.80
67.75%
TROW
T Rowe Price
103.08
17.54
20.50%
Northern Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Northern Trust shareholders back board, pay, and plans
Positive
Apr 22, 2026
Northern Trust Corporation held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders on April 21, 2026, where shareholders representing 91.15% of outstanding common stock participated in person or by proxy. All 13 director nominees were elected, reflecting bro...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Northern Trust Highlights 2025 Performance and Strategic Priorities
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
At the April 21, 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, Northern Trust Chairman and CEO Michael G. O’Grady reviewed 2025 business performance, strategic pillars and capital strength, underscoring the firm’s role as a premier provider of ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Northern Trust Posts Strong Q1 2026 Profit Growth
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, Northern Trust reported first-quarter 2026 net income of $525.5 million, or $2.71 per diluted share, up from $466.0 million and $2.42 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $392.0 million and $1.90 in the first quarter of 2025. Total...
Business Operations and Strategy
Northern Trust Highlights Asset Management Growth at Conference
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Northern Trust Corporation executives David W. Fox, Jr. and Michael Hunstad presented an overview of Northern Trust Asset Management at the Bank of America Securities 2026 Financial Services Conference in Miami Beach. The pre...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.