Want to see NTRS full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Northern
(NASDAQ:NTRS)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$199.00
â–²(10.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score reflects a strong and improving outlook from the latest earnings call (raised guidance and operating leverage) and a constructive price trend versus key moving averages. These positives are moderated by weaker financial quality signals—especially the sharp TTM free-cash-flow decline and volatility—along with only moderate leverage comfort and a valuation that is reasonable but not clearly cheap.
Positive Factors
Scale in asset servicing and AUM
Northern’s massive custody and management scale (AUC/A $20T; AUM $2T) creates durable fee revenue capacity and strong client lock‑in. Institutional servicing scale supports cross‑sell, operational moat and predictable recurring fees tied to asset levels rather than transactional spikes.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow
A roughly 92% drop in trailing free cash flow to $131M and multi‑year volatility signal weak cash conversion versus reported earnings. Poor and inconsistent cash generation undermines financing flexibility for buybacks, dividends and investments and raises earnings quality concerns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale in asset servicing and AUM
Northern’s massive custody and management scale (AUC/A $20T; AUM $2T) creates durable fee revenue capacity and strong client lock‑in. Institutional servicing scale supports cross‑sell, operational moat and predictable recurring fees tied to asset levels rather than transactional spikes.
Read all positive factors
Northern Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Assets Under Management
Total market value of client assets the firm manages, which drives fee revenue and reflects client trust and scale. Rising AUM generally increases recurring fees and signals growth; declines or stagnant AUM can cut fee income and indicate outflows or underperformance.
Total market value of client assets the firm manages, which drives fee revenue and reflects client trust and scale. Rising AUM generally increases recurring fees and signals growth; declines or stagnant AUM can cut fee income and indicate outflows or underperformance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNorthern (NTRS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$34.85B
Dividend Yield1.67%
Average Volume (3M)1.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.3
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth3.18%
EPS Growth37.10%
CountryUS
Employees23,800
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.71
Shares Outstanding182,955,660
10 Day Avg. Volume1,281,437
30 Day Avg. Volume1,064,403
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.51
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)1.79
P/FCF Ratio4.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$183.63Price Target Upside1.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)11.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.44B
Northern Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company established in 1889 and based in Chicago, Illinois, offers a comprehensive suite of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions worldwide. Its diverse client b...
How the Company Makes Money
Northern Trust makes money primarily through a mix of fee-based revenue and net interest income. Fee-based revenue includes (1) asset servicing and custody fees for safeguarding client assets and providing fund administration, accounting, transfer...
Northern Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong diversified revenue growth, solid profitability metrics (EPS up 40% excluding notables), meaningful operating leverage, raised guidance for NII and total revenue, robust asset and AUM growth, and an improved capital position enabling substantial shareholder returns. Offsetting these positives are several one-time notable items (including a large Visa gain that materially boosted results), restructuring and software charges, sequential deposit normalization risks, and billing/valuation-driven variability in wealth fees. Management expressed confidence in strategy execution but noted tougher second-half comparisons and some temporary revenue normalization risks.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Earnings and Profitability
Net income of $792.2 million, EPS of $4.23, return on average common equity of 25.9%, pre-tax income of $1.1 billion and pre-tax margin of 39.6%.
Negative Updates
Notable Items and Restructuring Charges
Reported results included approximately $220 million in restructuring charges and other notable items: $62 million software disposition charge, $51 million severance, $33 million one-time equity grant and a $74 million pre-tax loss on strategic AFS repositioning. Management noted aggregate notable items had a favorable pre-tax impact of ~$306 million driven largely by a $525 million Visa gain, indicating one-time effects in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Earnings and Profitability
Net income of $792.2 million, EPS of $4.23, return on average common equity of 25.9%, pre-tax income of $1.1 billion and pre-tax margin of 39.6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Northern Trust updated full‑year guidance, assuming a relatively stable market and interest‑rate backdrop, now expecting net interest income to rise 9%–10% year‑over‑year (up from prior mid‑ to high‑single‑digit guidance), total revenue to grow 9%–10% year‑over‑year (raised from mid‑single digits), and about 400 basis points of operating leverage for the year excluding notable items; management also reiterated an expected full‑year effective tax rate of roughly 26%–26.5% and noted the firm operates with a stressed capital buffer at the 2.5% CCAR minimum.Northern Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.18B | 14.30B | 15.88B | 12.12B | 7.75B | 6.49B |
| Gross Profit | 9.08B | 8.09B | 8.29B | 6.75B | 6.75B | 6.55B |
| EBITDA | 3.70B | 3.21B | 3.38B | 2.10B | 2.32B | 2.53B |
| Net Income | 2.24B | 1.74B | 2.03B | 1.11B | 1.34B | 1.55B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 179.30B | 177.13B | 155.51B | 150.78B | 155.04B | 183.89B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.76B | 63.78B | 56.54B | 64.93B | 74.52B | 108.29B |
| Total Debt | 15.76B | 16.43B | 15.99B | 17.24B | 14.85B | 8.43B |
| Total Liabilities | 165.90B | 164.17B | 142.72B | 138.89B | 143.78B | 171.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.40B | 12.96B | 12.79B | 11.90B | 11.26B | 12.02B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 131.10M | 5.46B | -1.23B | 1.95B | 1.67B | 840.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 529.30M | 5.53B | -486.00M | 2.63B | 2.39B | 1.36B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.62B | -20.17B | -2.56B | 4.78B | 25.93B | -18.60B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.48B | 15.18B | 3.44B | -7.18B | -26.44B | 16.07B |
Northern Technical Analysis
Positive
180.52
Price Trends
179.74
Positive
168.79
Positive
153.17
Positive
Market Momentum
2.95
Negative
66.39
Neutral
78.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 180.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 183.91, above the 50-day MA of 179.74, and above the 200-day MA of 153.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRS.
Northern Risk Analysis
Northern disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Northern reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Northern Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $12.77B | 18.34 | 28.86% | 1.05% | 11.21% | 6.93% | |
79 Outperform | $23.74B | 11.08 | 20.45% | 4.41% | 6.97% | 11.41% | |
71 Outperform | $52.15B | 16.63 | 12.40% | 1.81% | 1.05% | 27.32% | |
68 Neutral | $34.85B | 16.35 | 17.14% | 1.77% | 3.18% | 37.10% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $17.20B | 22.57 | 7.42% | 4.03% | 8.39% | 181.11% |
* Financial Sector Average
NTRS
Northern
191.41
68.19
55.34%
BEN
Franklin Resources
33.86
9.81
40.80%
SEIC
SEI Investments Company
106.38
19.24
22.08%
STT
State Street
191.74
83.46
77.08%
TROW
T Rowe Price
110.56
8.84
8.69%
Northern Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Northern Trust posts strong Q2 results, boosts dividend
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Northern Trust reported second-quarter 2026 net income of $792.2 million and diluted earnings per share of $4.23, sharply higher than both the first quarter of 2026 and the prior-year period. Total revenue on a fully taxable equi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.