Northern (NTRS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $28.36B
• Dividend Yield: 2.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 903.15K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: -4.52%
• EPS Growth: 7.01%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,400
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 2.69
• Shares Outstanding: 189,117,370
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,038,578
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 903,152
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.30
• P/FCF Ratio: -16.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -0.57
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -1.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -2.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.29
• 1Y Price Target: $154.45
• Price Target Upside: 2.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.87
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.51B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $161.00 ▲(7.15% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and free cash flow growth, improved leverage) and supportive technicals (price above key moving averages with positive momentum). Valuation is reasonable but not especially cheap, while the earnings call adds an incremental boost due to raised targets and shareholder return plans, tempered by expense and capital/deposit risks.

Positive Factors

AI Integration and Efficiency Gains

The integration of AI across operations enhances efficiency, reducing costs and improving service delivery, which strengthens competitive positioning.

Wealth Management Expansion

Growth in wealth management assets indicates strong client retention and acquisition, supporting long-term revenue stability and market leadership.

Asset Servicing Growth

Increased assets under custody and administration suggest robust demand for services, enhancing recurring revenue streams and market presence.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

A declining revenue growth rate could signal challenges in maintaining market share and competitive pressure, impacting long-term profitability.

Asset Management Fee Pressure

Fee pressure in asset management could reduce profitability margins, affecting the company's ability to invest in growth and innovation.

Investment Product Challenges

Challenges in investment products may hinder growth in AUM and revenue, affecting the company's competitive edge and market positioning.

Northern Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage services, transition management services, banking, and cash management services. This segment serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage services; and private and business banking services. This segment serves high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately held businesses. The company also provides asset management services, such as active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; alternative asset classes comprising private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. In addition, it offers overlay and other risk management services. Northern Trust Corporation was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Trust generates revenue primarily through its asset management and asset servicing divisions. The company earns fees based on assets under management (AUM) from investment management services, which include mutual funds, private equity, and hedge fund management. Additionally, Northern Trust provides custody and administration services that generate recurring revenue from institutional clients through service fees. The firm also engages in wealth management, charging clients for investment advice, planning, and related services. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms enhance its service offerings and expand its client base, contributing to its overall earnings. Furthermore, Northern Trust leverages technology solutions, offering platforms that integrate with client operations, which adds to its revenue through technology fees and enhanced service capabilities.

Northern Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financials are solid: healthy profitability (net margin 13.47%, EBIT margin 17.95%) and strong free cash flow growth (+20.09%) support the score. Offsetting factors include declining revenue growth (-3.2%) and some missing balance sheet/cash flow metrics that limit full transparency.

Income Statement

Northern's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 3.2%, which is a concern. However, the company maintains a solid net profit margin of 13.47% and an EBIT margin of 17.95%, suggesting efficient cost management and profitability. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 45.97%, although it has decreased from previous years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.32 in the TTM period, significantly improved from previous years, indicating reduced leverage. Return on equity stands at 13.41%, showing good profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the equity ratio is not provided, which limits a full assessment of asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a strong free cash flow growth rate of 20.09% in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.84, suggesting efficient conversion of income to cash. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, which could provide further insights into cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.37B	15.88B	12.12B	7.75B	6.49B	6.30B
Gross Profit	7.93B	8.29B	6.75B	6.75B	6.55B	5.98B
EBITDA	3.06B	3.38B	2.10B	2.32B	2.53B	2.13B
Net Income	1.73B	2.03B	1.11B	1.34B	1.55B	1.21B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	170.26B	155.51B	150.78B	155.04B	183.89B	170.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	71.34B	56.54B	64.93B	74.52B	108.29B	106.29B
Total Debt	15.64B	15.99B	17.24B	14.85B	8.43B	9.60B
Total Liabilities	157.31B	142.72B	138.89B	143.78B	171.87B	158.32B
Stockholders Equity	12.96B	12.79B	11.90B	11.26B	12.02B	11.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.71B	-1.23B	1.95B	1.67B	840.90M	1.34B
Operating Cash Flow	2.51B	-486.00M	2.63B	2.39B	1.36B	1.90B
Investing Cash Flow	-15.31B	-2.56B	4.78B	25.93B	-18.60B	-29.92B
Financing Cash Flow	11.19B	3.44B	-7.18B	-26.44B	16.07B	27.87B

Northern Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 150.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 150.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 145.18, above the 50-day MA of 138.11, and above the 200-day MA of 123.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRS.

Northern Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BK	78 Outperform	$81.81B	16.06	12.96%	1.71%	4.22%	51.01%
SEIC	76 Outperform	$10.36B	15.56	29.38%	1.18%	9.33%	33.17%
TROW	75 Outperform	$22.98B	11.47	19.28%	4.88%	4.26%	0.42%
BEN	74 Outperform	$13.30B	27.97	3.84%	5.33%	2.31%	5.71%
STT	73 Outperform	$35.62B	13.58	11.07%	2.43%	5.62%	49.49%
NTRS	73 Outperform	$28.36B	17.16	13.37%	2.21%	-4.52%	7.01%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Northern Corporate Events

Northern Trust posts stronger Q4 earnings and revenue

On January 22, 2026, Northern Trust reported that fourth-quarter 2025 net income rose to $466.0 million, or $2.42 per diluted share, up from $2.29 in the third quarter of 2025 and $2.26 a year earlier, as total revenue on a fully taxable equivalent basis increased 5% sequentially and 8% year-on-year to $2.14 billion. Results for the quarter reflected mid-single-digit growth in trust, investment and other servicing fees, double-digit growth in net interest income, and higher noninterest expense that included $58.8 million in severance-related charges offset in part by a $9.5 million release of a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation special assessment reserve, while return on average common equity reached 15.4% and assets under custody/administration climbed 11% year-on-year to $18.7 trillion, with management highlighting positive operating leverage, record capital returns to shareholders, and strong momentum entering 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTRS) stock is a Buy with a $166.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern stock, see the NTRS Stock Forecast page.

Northern Trust Issues $1.25 Billion in Senior and Subordinated Notes

On November 19, 2025, Northern Trust Corporation issued $500 million of 4.150% Senior Notes due 2030 and $750 million of 5.117% Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes due 2040. The issuance of these notes, conducted through a public offering, is part of the company’s strategy to manage its debt obligations. The Senior Notes are unsecured and rank equally with other senior debt, while the Subordinated Notes are junior to other liabilities. This financial maneuver could impact Northern Trust’s capital structure and influence its market positioning by potentially enhancing liquidity and funding future growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTRS) stock is a Buy with a $142.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern stock, see the NTRS Stock Forecast page.

Northern Trust Q3 2025 Financial Results Released

Northern Trust Corporation reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, showing a net income of $457.6 million and earnings per diluted common share of $2.29, an increase from the previous quarter and the same quarter last year. The company experienced solid revenue growth across trust fees, capital markets, and net interest income, contributing to a strong return on equity and positive operating leverage. The results reflect Northern Trust’s focus on its ‘One Northern Trust’ strategy, aiming to enhance shareholder value and maintain sound financial measures.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTRS) stock is a Hold with a $147.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern stock, see the NTRS Stock Forecast page.