Northern (NTRS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.36B
• Dividend Yield: 2.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.49M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: 3.44%
• EPS Growth: 16.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,400
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 2.13
• Shares Outstanding: 191,233,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,186,363
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,488,761
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.61
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.30
• P/FCF Ratio: -16.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -0.68
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -1.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -2.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.47
• 1Y Price Target: $123.25
• Price Target Upside: -2.16% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $138.00 ▲(9.55% Upside)

Northern Trust's overall score reflects strong earnings growth and strategic initiatives, supported by positive technical indicators and a fair valuation. However, challenges in revenue growth and cash flow, along with high leverage, present risks that need addressing. The company's commitment to shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends enhances its attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Northern Trust reported better-than-expected fee growth, driven by custody and other areas, which contributed to higher estimates.

Growth and Productivity

Management's focus on productivity and growth improvements is expected to positively impact shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Market Performance

Shares of Northern Trust Corporation have underperformed compared to trust peers, which has fueled recent speculation about potential mergers and acquisitions.

Merger and Acquisition Potential

The recent increase in Northern Trust's stock price has removed much of the economic benefit for a potential deal, limiting investor upside.

Northern Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage services, transition management services, banking, and cash management services. This segment serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage services; and private and business banking services. This segment serves high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately held businesses. The company also provides asset management services, such as active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; alternative asset classes comprising private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. In addition, it offers overlay and other risk management services. Northern Trust Corporation was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Trust generates revenue through several key streams, primarily encompassing asset servicing fees, investment management fees, and banking services. Asset servicing involves providing custodian services, fund administration, and related support to institutional clients, which forms a significant portion of their income. Investment management fees arise from managing assets for clients in various investment vehicles, including mutual funds and separate accounts. Additionally, the company offers private banking services, generating revenue through interest on loans and fees for banking services. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms enhance their service offerings and broaden their client base, contributing positively to their overall earnings.

Northern Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Northern demonstrates a robust financial profile with strong profitability and cash flow metrics despite some challenges in revenue growth. The company's adept cost management and efficient cash flow generation provide a solid foundation for continued stability. However, attention should be paid to the high liabilities and the recent revenue decline.

Income Statement

The income statement of Northern shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in total revenue compared to the previous year, but there is a significant improvement in net profit margin due to reduced expenses. Despite the decrease in revenue, the company has managed to maintain a strong EBIT margin, indicating effective cost management. The revenue growth rate is negative, which is a concern, but the overall profitability metrics remain solid.

Balance Sheet

Northern's balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting a balanced approach to leverage. The equity ratio is healthy, indicating a strong equity base relative to total assets. However, the high level of total liabilities compared to stockholders' equity could pose a risk if not managed carefully. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong, driven by robust net income.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a solid free cash flow position, with notable growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. This is a positive indicator of financial health and operational efficiency. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, showing good cash generation relative to profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio underscores the company's ability to generate cash, despite fluctuations in operating and investing cash flows in prior periods.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.73B	15.88B	12.12B	7.75B	6.49B	6.30B
Gross Profit	7.85B	8.29B	6.75B	6.75B	6.55B	5.98B
EBITDA	3.03B	3.38B	2.10B	2.32B	2.53B	2.13B
Net Income	1.73B	2.03B	1.11B	1.34B	1.55B	1.21B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	171.88B	155.51B	150.78B	155.04B	183.89B	170.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	72.47B	56.54B	64.93B	74.52B	108.29B	107.88B
Total Debt	16.69B	15.99B	17.24B	14.85B	8.43B	9.60B
Total Liabilities	159.02B	142.72B	138.89B	143.78B	171.87B	158.32B
Stockholders Equity	12.87B	12.79B	11.90B	11.26B	12.02B	11.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.76B	-1.23B	1.95B	1.67B	840.90M	1.34B
Operating Cash Flow	2.60B	-486.00M	2.63B	2.39B	1.36B	1.90B
Investing Cash Flow	-12.63B	-2.56B	4.78B	25.93B	-18.60B	-29.92B
Financing Cash Flow	9.48B	3.44B	-7.18B	-26.44B	16.07B	27.87B

Northern Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 125.97
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 125.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 127.49, above the 50-day MA of 122.42, and above the 200-day MA of 107.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTRS.

Northern Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BK	78 Outperform	$73.07B	15.82	11.75%	1.88%	7.41%	51.70%
TROW	78 Outperform	$23.65B	12.04	19.39%	4.60%	4.43%	5.55%
BEN	75 Outperform	$13.34B	49.26	2.16%	4.96%	4.72%	-67.85%
SEIC	74 Outperform	$10.98B	16.68	30.06%	1.10%	10.55%	40.74%
NTRS	70 Outperform	$24.36B	14.97	13.47%	2.33%	3.44%	16.76%
STT	68 Neutral	$31.61B	12.49	10.94%	2.73%	11.66%	67.88%
Sector *	58 Neutral	HK$111.71B	6.60	-4.20%	3.95%	9.04%	-46.99%

Northern Corporate Events

Northern Trust Approves $2.5 Billion Stock Buyback

On July 22, 2025, Northern Trust Corporation’s Board of Directors approved a new stock repurchase authorization allowing the repurchase of up to $2.5 billion of its common stock, replacing the previous authorization from October 2021. This new authorization, which has no expiration date, provides the company with flexibility to repurchase shares based on market conditions and regulatory requirements, potentially impacting its stock value and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTRS) stock is a Hold with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern stock, see the NTRS Stock Forecast page.

Northern Trust Reports Strong Q2 Earnings and Dividend Increase

On July 23, 2025, Northern Trust Corporation reported a second-quarter net income of $421.3 million, with earnings per diluted common share of $2.13, reflecting an increase from the first quarter of 2025 but a decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The corporation experienced growth in trust fees, record net interest income, and an improved pretax margin, contributing to a 20% rise in earnings per share, excluding notable items from the previous period. The company also announced a 7% increase in its quarterly dividend, indicating strong financial momentum and a commitment to delivering value to clients and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTRS) stock is a Hold with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern stock, see the NTRS Stock Forecast page.