Northern (NTRS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $26.59B
• Dividend Yield: 2.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: -4.52%
• EPS Growth: 7.01%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,400
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 2.69
• Shares Outstanding: 185,827,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 923,239
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,089,279
• PEG Ratio: -1.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.79
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -0.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -1.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -2.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.49
• 1Y Price Target: $157.77
• Price Target Upside: 10.26% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.58B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $147.00 ▲(2.73% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/25/26

The score is held back primarily by mixed financial performance (sharp 2025 revenue decline, elevated leverage, and cash-flow volatility) and weak near-term technical momentum. These are partly offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook with improved medium-term targets and solid capital returns, plus a reasonable P/E and moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Large-scale asset servicing & AUM

Northern Trust's massive custody and AUM scale creates a durable, sticky fee base derived from institutional custody, administration and recurring trust fees. High AUC/A and diversified institutional flows reduce reliance on single product cycles and support stable revenue from long-term client mandates.

Productivity & expense efficiency

Material productivity gains (>4% of expenses) and a higher productivity target signal structural cost improvement. Raising spans of control and targeting further efficiency should sustainably lower expense growth, improve operating leverage over cycles, and increase margin resiliency versus peers.

Consistent capital returns and core profitability

Significant buybacks and dividend returns backed by recurring fee and interest income show durable cash allocation discipline. Combined with mid-teens ROE excluding notables, this indicates the business converts earnings into shareholder returns while retaining the ability to deploy capital strategically.

Negative Factors

Revenue and cash-flow volatility

Large year-to-year swings in top line and cash flow reduce predictability for capital allocation and make operating results sensitive to timing, notables and market cycles. Volatility complicates multi-period planning for buybacks, investments and margin targets, raising execution risk.

Elevated leverage profile

A higher debt-to-equity ratio constrains capital flexibility and increases sensitivity to interest-rate and funding shocks. Sustained elevated leverage can limit the firm's ability to expand lendings, absorb losses, or sustain large shareholder returns during downturns without rebuilding capital buffers.

Expense volatility & notable charges

Rising reported expenses and an expense-to-trust-fee ratio above target indicate structural pressure on margins. One-time severance and notables show headline volatility; until expense growth normalizes below revenue growth, margin and ROE improvement targets may be harder to sustain.

Northern Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage services, transition management services, banking, and cash management services. This segment serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage services; and private and business banking services. This segment serves high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately held businesses. The company also provides asset management services, such as active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; alternative asset classes comprising private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. In addition, it offers overlay and other risk management services. Northern Trust Corporation was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

Northern Trust generates revenue primarily through its asset management and asset servicing divisions. The company earns fees based on assets under management (AUM) from investment management services, which include mutual funds, private equity, and hedge fund management. Additionally, Northern Trust provides custody and administration services that generate recurring revenue from institutional clients through service fees. The firm also engages in wealth management, charging clients for investment advice, planning, and related services. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms enhance its service offerings and expand its client base, contributing to its overall earnings. Furthermore, Northern Trust leverages technology solutions, offering platforms that integrate with client operations, which adds to its revenue through technology fees and enhanced service capabilities.

Northern Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitable with acceptable shareholder returns (net margin ~12%, EBIT margin ~16%, ROE ~13%), but quality is mixed: 2025 revenue fell sharply (~47%) with margin compression, leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity ~1.27), and cash flow is volatile despite a strong 2025 rebound (~$5.5B OCF/FCF).

Income Statement

Profitability remains solid, with 2025 net margin at ~12% and EBIT margin at ~16%, though both are down versus prior years. The bigger issue is growth volatility: revenue expanded strongly in 2022–2024, but 2025 revenue declined sharply (down ~47%), pulling earnings lower (net income down from ~$2.0B in 2024 to ~$1.7B in 2025). Overall, the business is still profitable but the recent top-line step-down and margin compression reduce confidence in near-term momentum.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful for the period, with debt-to-equity around ~1.27 in 2025 (similar to 2024 and improved vs. 2023), which limits balance-sheet flexibility. At the same time, shareholder returns are decent (return on equity ~13% in 2025, ~16% in 2024), suggesting the company is generating reasonable profits on its equity base. Overall balance sheet looks workable, but the consistently higher leverage profile is a key watch item.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven year to year: 2024 showed negative operating and free cash flow, followed by a sharp rebound in 2025 to ~$5.5B of operating cash flow and ~$5.5B of free cash flow. Free cash flow in 2025 also fully covered net income (about 1.0x), which is supportive. The main drawback is volatility—large swings in cash flow reduce predictability and raise questions about how much is driven by working-capital or other timing effects.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.30B	15.88B	12.12B	7.75B	6.49B
Gross Profit	8.09B	8.29B	6.75B	6.75B	6.55B
EBITDA	3.21B	3.38B	2.10B	2.32B	2.53B
Net Income	1.74B	2.03B	1.11B	1.34B	1.55B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	177.13B	155.51B	150.78B	155.04B	183.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	63.78B	56.54B	64.93B	74.52B	108.29B
Total Debt	16.43B	15.99B	17.24B	14.85B	8.43B
Total Liabilities	164.17B	142.72B	138.89B	143.78B	171.87B
Stockholders Equity	12.96B	12.79B	11.90B	11.26B	12.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.53B	-1.23B	1.95B	1.67B	840.90M
Operating Cash Flow	5.53B	-486.00M	2.63B	2.39B	1.36B
Investing Cash Flow	-20.17B	-2.56B	4.78B	25.93B	-18.60B
Financing Cash Flow	15.18B	3.44B	-7.18B	-26.44B	16.07B

Northern Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 143.09
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTRS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 143.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 147.24, below the 50-day MA of 145.08, and above the 200-day MA of 129.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NTRS.

Northern Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SEIC	73 Outperform	$9.94B	14.45	29.38%	1.18%	9.33%	33.17%
TROW	73 Outperform	$20.64B	10.24	19.21%	4.88%	4.26%	0.42%
BK	72 Outperform	$81.81B	16.09	12.96%	1.71%	4.22%	51.01%
BEN	69 Neutral	$13.82B	24.43	4.58%	5.33%	2.31%	5.71%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
STT	66 Neutral	$35.85B	13.68	11.07%	2.43%	5.62%	49.49%
NTRS	58 Neutral	$26.59B	16.38	13.37%	2.21%	-4.52%	7.01%

Northern Corporate Events

Northern Trust Highlights Asset Management Growth at Conference

On February 10, 2026, Northern Trust Corporation executives David W. Fox, Jr. and Michael Hunstad presented an overview of Northern Trust Asset Management at the Bank of America Securities 2026 Financial Services Conference in Miami Beach. The presentation highlighted NTAM’s scale, with $1.4 trillion in assets under management, a predominantly institutional client base and global reach across 16 locations, underscoring its role as a major player in index, liquidity and customized investment solutions.

Management detailed NTAM’s diversified capabilities spanning alternatives, indexing, quantitative strategies, fundamental active management and multi-manager offerings, delivered through a wide range of global fund and account structures. They emphasized competitive strengths in fast-growing areas such as ETFs, private markets and retail custom SMAs, pointing to strong fundraising, significant net flows in tax-advantaged equity and liquidity products, and recent product launches as evidence of momentum aligned with key industry growth trends.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTRS) stock is a Sell with a $148.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern stock, see the NTRS Stock Forecast page.

Northern Trust posts stronger Q4 earnings and revenue

On January 22, 2026, Northern Trust reported that fourth-quarter 2025 net income rose to $466.0 million, or $2.42 per diluted share, up from $2.29 in the third quarter of 2025 and $2.26 a year earlier, as total revenue on a fully taxable equivalent basis increased 5% sequentially and 8% year-on-year to $2.14 billion. Results for the quarter reflected mid-single-digit growth in trust, investment and other servicing fees, double-digit growth in net interest income, and higher noninterest expense that included $58.8 million in severance-related charges offset in part by a $9.5 million release of a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation special assessment reserve, while return on average common equity reached 15.4% and assets under custody/administration climbed 11% year-on-year to $18.7 trillion, with management highlighting positive operating leverage, record capital returns to shareholders, and strong momentum entering 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (NTRS) stock is a Buy with a $166.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern stock, see the NTRS Stock Forecast page.