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Neste (NTOIY)
OTHER OTC:NTOIY
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Neste
(OTC:NTOIY)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
â–¼(-3.23% Downside)
Positive Factors
Operations and Performance
NESTE's more stable operations and performance improvement program are coming through results.
Stock Performance
NESTE stock notched double-digit gains as Renewable Products (RP) margins posted its first q/q gain since 3Q23.
Negative Factors
Demand Concerns
Voluntary demand has been disappointing, with more support from cargo companies than airlines.
Margin Outlook
NESTE was hesitant to call a bottom in RP margins despite the improvement.
Market Oversupply
The RP market remains oversupplied by NESTE's own admission.
Neste (NTOIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.22B
Dividend Yield5.24%
Average Volume (3M)8.72K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.1
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth-4.13%
EPS Growth-119.45%
CountryUS
Employees5,408
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength58
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.04
Shares Outstanding1,538,422,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,006
30 Day Avg. Volume8,723
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda41.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.00Price Target Upside-13.98% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNeste (NTOIY) is a Finnish company that operates in the oil refining and marketing sector, with a strong emphasis on sustainability and renewable energy solutions. The company is a global leader in the production of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, offering cleaner alternatives to conventional fossil fuels. Neste serves various industries, including transportation, aviation, and chemicals, providing advanced solutions that contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting circular economy practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyNeste makes money primarily through its refining and marketing operations. The company's revenue model is centered around the production and sale of renewable products such as Neste MY Renewable Diesel and Neste MY Sustainable Aviation Fuel, which are derived from renewable raw materials like waste and residues. Additionally, Neste generates revenue from its conventional oil refining business, which includes the production and sale of gasoline, diesel, and other oil products. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with airlines, logistics companies, and municipalities seeking to reduce their carbon footprint by adopting sustainable fuels. Neste's focus on innovation and expanding its renewable product offerings helps it tap into the growing demand for cleaner energy solutions, further boosting its revenue streams.
Neste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Neste's earnings call presented a mix of strong achievements in renewable sales and commercial partnerships, alongside challenges such as safety concerns and delays in expansion projects. Despite these issues, the company is making progress on its performance improvement program and benefiting from favorable regulatory developments.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Renewable Volume and SAF Sales
SAF sales increased by 80% in Q2, and overall renewable volumes were the highest in Neste's history.
Strong Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow reached EUR 226 million despite significant investments and debt.
Performance Improvement Program Progress
On track to achieve EUR 350 million EBITDA improvement by the end of 2026, with EUR 107 million already booked.
Commercial Partnerships
Expanded customer roster with well-known brands like DHL, Amazon, and FedEx.
Positive Regulatory Developments
Progress in EU and US regulatory frameworks supporting renewable fuels, including SAF mandates and RVO decisions.
Negative Updates
Safety Concerns
Total recordable injury frequency at 1.6 incidents per million hours, higher than desired.
Delayed and Costly Rotterdam Expansion
Rotterdam capacity expansion is delayed and more costly than anticipated.
Disappointing Refining Margin
Refining margin at $10 a barrel was lower than expected, impacted by crude oil costs.
Oversupply in Renewable Fuels Market
Market for renewable fuels remains oversupplied, causing margin pressures.
Company Guidance
During the call, Neste provided comprehensive guidance for the remainder of the fiscal year, emphasizing several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The company highlighted a significant reduction in total recordable injury frequency, aiming to lower the current figure of 1.6 incidents per million hours. Neste also reported a strong financial performance with a group comparable EBITDA of EUR 341 million for Q2 2025. Renewable Products contributed EUR 174 million, with an 80% increase in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sales, marking the highest renewable volumes in the company's history. Neste's performance improvement program is on track, with EUR 107 million in EBITDA run rate improvements already booked, aiming for a EUR 350 million improvement by the end of 2026. The company also maintained a strong free cash flow of EUR 226 million, despite a refining margin of $10 per barrel being lower than expected. On the strategic front, Neste is advancing its Rotterdam capacity expansion, with the new SAF refinery set to become the largest in Europe by 2027. Regulatory developments, particularly in the EU and the U.S., were also discussed, with Neste optimistic about the potential positive impact on renewable diesel and SAF demand.Neste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Neste faces significant financial challenges, particularly in terms of profitability and revenue growth. The income statement reflects declining revenues and negative margins, while the balance sheet shows increased leverage. Cash flow stability is a concern, with declining free cash flow growth. Despite these challenges, the company has a strong equity base, which could support future recovery efforts.Income Statement
Neste's income statement shows significant volatility. The TTM data reveals a concerning revenue decline of 62.8% and a negative net profit margin of -0.91%, indicating profitability challenges. Historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth rates and declining margins, with the most recent TTM figures reflecting negative EBIT and net income. These trends suggest potential operational inefficiencies and market challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased over time, reaching 0.74 in the TTM period, which suggests rising leverage. However, the equity ratio remains healthy, and the company maintains a substantial equity base. The negative return on equity in the TTM period highlights profitability issues, but past performance shows stronger returns, indicating potential for recovery.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals mixed results. The TTM period shows a significant decline in free cash flow growth, but operating cash flow remains positive. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively stable, suggesting some resilience in cash generation. However, the negative free cash flow growth and fluctuating free cash flow to net income ratio indicate potential cash management challenges.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.72B | 20.64B | 22.93B | 25.71B | 15.15B | 11.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.38B | 2.05B | 3.66B | 3.42B | 2.81B | 1.81B |
| EBITDA | 374.00M | 700.00M | 2.58B | 3.00B | 2.62B | 1.38B |
| Net Income | -188.00M | -95.00M | 1.43B | 1.89B | 1.77B | 712.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.51B | 15.58B | 15.98B | 14.92B | 12.42B | 9.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 981.00M | 955.00M | 1.58B | 1.27B | 1.72B | 1.57B |
| Total Debt | 5.34B | 5.15B | 4.07B | 2.62B | 1.76B | 1.31B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.33B | 8.16B | 7.52B | 6.59B | 5.43B | 3.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.18B | 7.42B | 8.46B | 8.32B | 6.98B | 5.92B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 387.00M | -369.00M | 849.00M | -546.00M | 1.02B | 1.29B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.68B | 1.18B | 2.28B | 1.20B | 1.99B | 2.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -1.50B | -1.53B | -1.59B | -1.48B | -1.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -301.00M | -314.00M | -441.00M | -37.00M | -377.00M | -961.00M |
Neste Technical Analysis
Positive
9.30
Price Trends
7.87
Positive
6.48
Positive
6.22
Positive
Market Momentum
0.42
Negative
68.99
Neutral
85.84
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.63, above the 50-day MA of 7.87, and above the 200-day MA of 6.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.84 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTOIY.
Neste Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $9.18B | 35.13 | -0.93% | 3.96% | -14.58% | -107.50% | |
73 Outperform | $45.65B | 61.00 | 3.07% | 2.95% | -11.72% | -86.21% | |
70 Outperform | $52.49B | 31.26 | 6.00% | 3.54% | -12.80% | -64.40% | |
65 Neutral | $15.47B | 7.30 | 3.02% | 5.25% | 4.27% | -62.52% | |
65 Neutral | $52.75B | 25.70 | 11.24% | 2.03% | -10.03% | -64.63% | |
64 Neutral | $7.93B | 25.45 | 6.62% | 6.85% | -8.65% | -73.25% | |
60 Neutral | $14.22B | 19.07 | -2.45% | 5.24% | -4.13% | -119.45% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NTOIY
Neste
9.28
-2.57
-21.69%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
50.54
5.48
12.16%
MPC
Marathon Petroleum
179.30
12.17
7.28%
PSX
Phillips 66
132.83
1.31
1.00%
VLO
Valero Energy
151.16
13.86
10.09%
SUN
Sunoco
52.06
0.72
1.40%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.