Neste (NTOIY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $15.13B
• Dividend Yield: 4.87%
• Average Volume (3M): 701.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: -6.60%
• EPS Growth: -121.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,408
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 1,538,422,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,136
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 701
• PEG Ratio: 0.92
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.45
• P/FCF Ratio: -25.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 41.50
• 1Y Price Target: $11.20
• Price Target Upside: 12.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(0.00% Upside)

Neste's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and revenue growth, which weigh heavily on the score. Technical analysis provides some positive signals, but valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio are notable. The earnings call offered positive insights into operational efficiencies and strong Q3 performance, slightly offsetting other challenges.

Positive Factors

Operational Achievements

Neste's record high sales in renewable products demonstrate strong market demand and effective operational strategies, supporting long-term growth.

Cost Management

Effective cost management and CapEx control enhance financial stability, allowing Neste to allocate resources efficiently for future growth.

Improved Refining Margin

Higher refining margins indicate improved operational efficiency and profitability, strengthening Neste's competitive position in the market.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A significant revenue decline suggests potential market challenges and operational inefficiencies, which could hinder long-term growth prospects.

Rising Leverage

Increased leverage may strain financial flexibility, impacting Neste's ability to invest in growth initiatives and manage economic downturns.

Regulatory Uncertainties

Regulatory uncertainties can affect market demand and operational planning, posing risks to Neste's strategic objectives and market expansion.

Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Neste Oyj provides renewable and oil products in Finland and other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, North and South America, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services, and Others. The Renewable Products segment produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, renewable jet fuels and solutions, and renewable solvents, as well as raw material for bioplastics based on its technology to wholesale markets. The Oil Products segment produces, markets, and sells diesel fuel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, base oils, gasoline components, small engine gasoline, solvents, liquid gases, and bitumen. This segment serves retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, petrochemicals companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. The Marketing & Services segment markets and sells petroleum products and associated services to private motorists, industry, transport companies, farmers, and heating oil customers through a network of 947 service stations, as well as direct sales. The Others segment offers engineering and technology solutions. The company also manufactures raw materials for polymers and chemicals materials. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

How the Company Makes Money

Neste generates revenue primarily through the sale of its renewable fuels and related products. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and other renewable products derived from waste and residues. Additionally, Neste benefits from partnerships with various stakeholders in the aviation and transportation sectors, which facilitate the adoption of its sustainable fuels. The company also engages in strategic collaborations and joint ventures that enhance its production capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings. Neste's commitment to sustainability and innovation positions it favorably in the growing market for renewable energy solutions.

Neste Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Neste faces significant financial challenges, particularly in terms of profitability and revenue growth. The income statement reflects declining revenues and negative margins, while the balance sheet shows increased leverage. Cash flow stability is a concern, with declining free cash flow growth. Despite these challenges, the company has a strong equity base, which could support future recovery efforts.

Income Statement

Neste's income statement shows significant volatility. The TTM data reveals a concerning revenue decline of 62.8% and a negative net profit margin of -0.91%, indicating profitability challenges. Historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth rates and declining margins, with the most recent TTM figures reflecting negative EBIT and net income. These trends suggest potential operational inefficiencies and market challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased over time, reaching 0.74 in the TTM period, which suggests rising leverage. However, the equity ratio remains healthy, and the company maintains a substantial equity base. The negative return on equity in the TTM period highlights profitability issues, but past performance shows stronger returns, indicating potential for recovery.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals mixed results. The TTM period shows a significant decline in free cash flow growth, but operating cash flow remains positive. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively stable, suggesting some resilience in cash generation. However, the negative free cash flow growth and fluctuating free cash flow to net income ratio indicate potential cash management challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	20.72B	20.64B	22.93B	25.71B	15.15B	11.74B
Gross Profit	1.38B	2.05B	3.66B	3.42B	2.81B	1.81B
EBITDA	374.00M	700.00M	2.58B	2.97B	2.59B	1.38B
Net Income	-188.00M	-95.00M	1.43B	1.89B	1.77B	712.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.51B	15.58B	15.98B	14.92B	12.42B	9.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	981.00M	955.00M	1.58B	1.27B	1.72B	1.57B
Total Debt	5.34B	5.15B	4.07B	2.62B	1.76B	1.31B
Total Liabilities	8.33B	8.16B	7.52B	6.59B	5.43B	3.89B
Stockholders Equity	7.18B	7.42B	8.46B	8.32B	6.98B	5.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	387.00M	-369.00M	849.00M	-546.00M	1.02B	1.29B
Operating Cash Flow	1.68B	1.18B	2.28B	1.20B	1.99B	2.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.19B	-1.50B	-1.53B	-1.59B	-1.48B	-1.04B
Financing Cash Flow	-301.00M	-314.00M	-441.00M	-37.00M	-377.00M	-961.00M

Neste Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 10.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.36, above the 50-day MA of 9.94, and above the 200-day MA of 7.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NTOIY.

Neste Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLO	75 Outperform	$55.00B	37.54	6.07%	2.65%	-8.48%	-56.92%
PSX	73 Outperform	$54.19B	37.83	5.38%	3.60%	-10.56%	-53.06%
MPC	70 Outperform	$58.77B	20.85	15.98%	1.99%	-6.37%	-25.83%
DINO	68 Neutral	$9.94B	26.01	4.07%	3.83%	-9.55%	27.65%
SUN	67 Neutral	$8.34B	18.53	8.27%	6.62%	-5.18%	-33.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
NTOIY	55 Neutral	$15.13B	-146.83	-2.45%	4.87%	-6.60%	-121.65%

Neste Corporate Events

Neste Corporation Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance

Neste Corporation, a leader in renewable products and oil refining, has reported its interim financial results for January to September 2025, showcasing its strategic focus on performance improvement and market resilience. The company, known for its production of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, operates primarily in the energy sector with a commitment to sustainability and innovation.

Neste Corporation’s Strong Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

Neste Corporation’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust financial health, underscored by strong achievements in renewable product sales and refining margins. The sentiment was largely positive, driven by operational efficiencies and effective cost management. However, the company acknowledged challenges such as regulatory uncertainties, feedstock cost pressures, and anticipated maintenance impacts in the fourth quarter.