Neste Corporation Unsponsored ADR (NTOIY)
OTHER OTC:NTOIY
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Neste
(OTC:NTOIY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
▲(71.30% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance (profit and cash-flow rebound) and strong technical momentum (price above key moving averages, positive MACD). These positives are offset by a demanding valuation (high P/E and low yield) and earnings-call risks around margins, upcoming turnaround-related volume impacts, continued high CapEx, and execution/market uncertainty tied to Rotterdam and SAF dynamics.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
Material improvement in OCF (~€2.4bn TTM) and FCF (~€1.6bn) demonstrates stronger internal funding capacity. Durable cash generation bolsters ability to fund guided €1.0–1.2bn CapEx, service debt, and maintain dividends while reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage versus prior years
Debt-to-equity near ~0.8 raises financial rigidity compared with prior stronger years. Elevated leverage reduces strategic optionality, increases refinancing and interest risk during commodity or macro stress, and limits the buffer available for further growth investments or M&A without more deleveraging.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
Material improvement in OCF (~€2.4bn TTM) and FCF (~€1.6bn) demonstrates stronger internal funding capacity. Durable cash generation bolsters ability to fund guided €1.0–1.2bn CapEx, service debt, and maintain dividends while reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
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Neste (NTOIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$26.45B
Dividend Yield4.38%
Average Volume (3M)46.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth-0.80%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,408
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.40
Shares Outstanding1,538,422,000
10 Day Avg. Volume11,483
30 Day Avg. Volume46,379
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)2.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.78
P/FCF Ratio17.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.76
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$25.01B
Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Neste Oyj provides renewable and oil products in Finland and other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, North and South America, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marke...
How the Company Makes Money
Neste makes money primarily by producing and selling fuels and fuel components across two main business areas: renewables and oil products. In its renewables business, Neste generates revenue by selling renewable diesel (often marketed as HVO rene...
Neste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a clear financial turnaround in 2025 with materially stronger EBITDA (≈ +31% YoY), exceptional quarter cash flow, a PIP that exceeded targets ahead of schedule, doubled SAF volumes and strong operational execution (Porvoo Q4 utilization 90%). These positives were balanced against margin headwinds from term contract timing and higher feedstock costs, a maintenance-heavy quarter and an upcoming Porvoo turnaround (reducing 2026 OP volumes), ongoing CapEx and elevated gross debt, plus uncertainties around SAF mandates, Chinese imports and Rotterdam ramp-up timing. On balance the call portrayed significant progress and momentum while acknowledging medium-term operational and market uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong comparable EBITDA and quarterly performance
Comparable EBITDA for 2025 was EUR 1.683 billion, an improvement of over EUR 400 million versus the prior year (≈ +31%). Q4 comparable EBITDA was EUR 601 million and Q4 free cash flow was exceptionally strong at EUR 809 million. Full year cash flow before financing activities reached EUR 759 million.
Negative Updates
Term contract overhang pressured margins
Annual term deals entered in Q4 2024 created an overhang that pulled down sales margins for renewable products in the second half of 2025. Approximately 60% of sales were termed, limiting upside when market prices rose.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong comparable EBITDA and quarterly performance
Comparable EBITDA for 2025 was EUR 1.683 billion, an improvement of over EUR 400 million versus the prior year (≈ +31%). Q4 comparable EBITDA was EUR 601 million and Q4 free cash flow was exceptionally strong at EUR 809 million. Full year cash flow before financing activities reached EUR 759 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: Renewable product sales volumes in 2026 are expected to be approximately flat versus 2025 (RP sales rose to ~4.1 million tonnes in 2025; Q4 RP sales ~1.1 Mt and SAF volumes doubled to ~867 kt in 2025), while Oil Products volumes are expected to be lower in 2026 due to a planned Porvoo turnaround (Porvoo TA planned for Q4); the company will continue the performance improvement program through 2026 after delivering a EUR 376m run‑rate (EUR 172m realized in 2025); 2025 comparable EBITDA was EUR 1.683bn (Q4 comparable EBITDA EUR 601m; Q4 OP EBITDA EUR 321m), Q4 free cash flow EUR 809m and full‑year cash flow before financing EUR 759m; cash out investments are guided at EUR 1.0–1.2bn for 2026, leverage is now below the 40% cap, roughly 60% of sales were term‑contracted, Q4 OP utilization ran ~90% (FY utilization ~73%), refining margin >$20/bbl with diesel cracks peaking near $30/bbl in November, the Board proposes a dividend of EUR 0.20, and Rotterdam expansion remains on track for start‑up in 2027.Neste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.15B | 19.02B | 20.64B | 22.93B | 25.71B | 15.15B |
| Gross Profit | 2.28B | 1.00B | 2.05B | 3.66B | 3.42B | 2.81B |
| EBITDA | 1.97B | 1.28B | 700.00M | 2.58B | 2.97B | 2.59B |
| Net Income | 716.76M | 138.32M | -95.00M | 1.43B | 1.89B | 1.77B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.07B | 15.75B | 15.58B | 15.98B | 14.92B | 12.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.64B | 1.37B | 955.00M | 1.58B | 1.27B | 1.72B |
| Total Debt | 5.21B | 5.18B | 5.15B | 4.07B | 2.62B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.37B | 8.44B | 8.16B | 7.52B | 6.59B | 5.43B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.70B | 7.31B | 7.42B | 8.46B | 8.32B | 6.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.58B | 825.00M | -369.00M | 849.00M | -546.00M | 1.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.42B | 1.75B | 1.18B | 2.28B | 1.20B | 1.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.18B | -949.01M | -1.50B | -1.53B | -1.59B | -1.48B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -761.34M | -299.69M | -314.00M | -441.00M | -37.00M | -377.00M |
Neste Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.80
Price Trends
14.33
Negative
12.80
Positive
10.97
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.09
Positive
37.73
Neutral
2.38
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.50, below the 50-day MA of 14.33, and below the 200-day MA of 10.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NTOIY.
Neste Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $12.47B | 4.35 | 6.25% | 4.26% | -1.08% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $73.80B | 14.57 | 9.88% | 2.74% | -2.53% | 385.02% | |
66 Neutral | $72.49B | 12.26 | 24.01% | 2.24% | -4.31% | 34.12% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $26.45B | 9.96 | 1.99% | 4.38% | -0.80% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $14.00B | 13.57 | 7.26% | 6.88% | 11.05% | -65.14% | |
62 Neutral | $70.64B | 88.46 | 14.72% | 3.68% | -1.33% | 130.72% |
* Energy Sector Average
NTOIY
Neste
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223.19%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.