Neste Corporation Unsponsored ADR (NTOIY)
OTHER OTC:NTOIY
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Neste
(OTC:NTOIY)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
â–²(43.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/18/26
The score is driven primarily by only moderate financial performance (stabilizing profitability and improved free cash flow, but still low margins and higher leverage) and an earnings narrative that shows real operational momentum but notable 2026 and medium-term uncertainties. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, though overbought signals temper the rating, and valuation is a headwind given the high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Renewable product & SAF volume growth
Material volume gains in renewable products and SAF signal durable scale in the higher‑value low‑carbon segment. Larger SAF/RP volumes improve bargaining power with feedstock suppliers, support long‑term contract wins, diversify revenue mix and underpin steady mid‑cycle cash generation.
Negative Factors
Compressed margins & low profitability
Persistently thin net margins and recent revenue decline constrain internal capital generation and shareholder returns. Low profitability reduces buffer against feedstock or pricing shocks, limits reinvestment capacity and makes ROE recovery dependent on structural margin improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Renewable product & SAF volume growth
Material volume gains in renewable products and SAF signal durable scale in the higher‑value low‑carbon segment. Larger SAF/RP volumes improve bargaining power with feedstock suppliers, support long‑term contract wins, diversify revenue mix and underpin steady mid‑cycle cash generation.
Read all positive factors
Neste (NTOIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.52B
Dividend Yield4.38%
Average Volume (3M)54.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.1
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth-6.60%
EPS Growth-121.65%
CountryUS
Employees5,408
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding1,538,422,000
10 Day Avg. Volume30,449
30 Day Avg. Volume54,982
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)2.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.78
P/FCF Ratio17.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.47
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.63B
Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Neste Oyj provides renewable and oil products in Finland and other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, North and South America, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marke...
How the Company Makes Money
Neste makes money primarily by producing and selling low-carbon renewable fuels and, to a smaller extent, refined petroleum products and related services. Its main revenue streams include: (1) Renewable Products: Neste manufactures hydrotreated ve...
Neste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a clear financial turnaround in 2025 with materially stronger EBITDA (≈ +31% YoY), exceptional quarter cash flow, a PIP that exceeded targets ahead of schedule, doubled SAF volumes and strong operational execution (Porvoo Q4 utilization 90%). These positives were balanced against margin headwinds from term contract timing and higher feedstock costs, a maintenance-heavy quarter and an upcoming Porvoo turnaround (reducing 2026 OP volumes), ongoing CapEx and elevated gross debt, plus uncertainties around SAF mandates, Chinese imports and Rotterdam ramp-up timing. On balance the call portrayed significant progress and momentum while acknowledging medium-term operational and market uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong comparable EBITDA and quarterly performance
Comparable EBITDA for 2025 was EUR 1.683 billion, an improvement of over EUR 400 million versus the prior year (≈ +31%). Q4 comparable EBITDA was EUR 601 million and Q4 free cash flow was exceptionally strong at EUR 809 million. Full year cash flow before financing activities reached EUR 759 million.
Negative Updates
Term contract overhang pressured margins
Annual term deals entered in Q4 2024 created an overhang that pulled down sales margins for renewable products in the second half of 2025. Approximately 60% of sales were termed, limiting upside when market prices rose.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong comparable EBITDA and quarterly performance
Comparable EBITDA for 2025 was EUR 1.683 billion, an improvement of over EUR 400 million versus the prior year (≈ +31%). Q4 comparable EBITDA was EUR 601 million and Q4 free cash flow was exceptionally strong at EUR 809 million. Full year cash flow before financing activities reached EUR 759 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: Renewable product sales volumes in 2026 are expected to be approximately flat versus 2025 (RP sales rose to ~4.1 million tonnes in 2025; Q4 RP sales ~1.1 Mt and SAF volumes doubled to ~867 kt in 2025), while Oil Products volumes are expected to be lower in 2026 due to a planned Porvoo turnaround (Porvoo TA planned for Q4); the company will continue the performance improvement program through 2026 after delivering a EUR 376m run‑rate (EUR 172m realized in 2025); 2025 comparable EBITDA was EUR 1.683bn (Q4 comparable EBITDA EUR 601m; Q4 OP EBITDA EUR 321m), Q4 free cash flow EUR 809m and full‑year cash flow before financing EUR 759m; cash out investments are guided at EUR 1.0–1.2bn for 2026, leverage is now below the 40% cap, roughly 60% of sales were term‑contracted, Q4 OP utilization ran ~90% (FY utilization ~73%), refining margin >$20/bbl with diesel cracks peaking near $30/bbl in November, the Board proposes a dividend of EUR 0.20, and Rotterdam expansion remains on track for start‑up in 2027.Neste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 19.02B | 20.64B | 22.93B | 25.71B | 15.15B |
| Gross Profit | 1.00B | 2.05B | 3.66B | 3.42B | 2.81B |
| EBITDA | 1.28B | 700.00M | 2.58B | 2.97B | 2.59B |
| Net Income | 138.32M | -95.00M | 1.43B | 1.89B | 1.77B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.75B | 15.58B | 15.98B | 14.92B | 12.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.37B | 955.00M | 1.58B | 1.27B | 1.72B |
| Total Debt | 5.18B | 5.15B | 4.07B | 2.62B | 1.76B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.44B | 8.16B | 7.52B | 6.59B | 5.43B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.31B | 7.42B | 8.46B | 8.32B | 6.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 825.00M | -369.00M | 849.00M | -546.00M | 1.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.75B | 1.18B | 2.28B | 1.20B | 1.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -949.01M | -1.50B | -1.53B | -1.59B | -1.48B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -299.69M | -314.00M | -441.00M | -37.00M | -377.00M |
Neste Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.80
Price Trends
14.10
Positive
12.54
Positive
10.73
Positive
Market Momentum
0.33
Positive
50.54
Neutral
11.31
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.97, below the 50-day MA of 14.10, and above the 200-day MA of 10.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.31 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NTOIY.
Neste Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $63.82B | 11.90 | 15.90% | 3.68% | -10.56% | -53.06% | |
69 Neutral | $71.41B | 10.87 | 9.88% | 2.74% | -8.48% | -56.92% | |
68 Neutral | $65.56B | 12.26 | 24.01% | 2.24% | -6.37% | -25.83% | |
68 Neutral | $13.33B | 13.57 | 7.27% | 6.88% | -5.18% | -33.14% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $10.37B | 14.84 | 6.25% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
59 Neutral | $23.52B | 32.11 | 1.99% | 4.38% | -6.60% | -121.65% |
* Energy Sector Average
NTOIY
Neste
15.06
10.82
255.10%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.