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Neste (NTOIY)
OTHER OTC:NTOIY
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Neste
(OTC:NTOIY)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▼(-0.27% Downside)
Neste's overall stock score is driven by significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and revenue growth, which weigh heavily on the score. Technical analysis shows bullish momentum, but overbought conditions suggest caution. Valuation is pressured by a negative P/E ratio, though the dividend yield offers some support. The earnings call provided positive insights into operational efficiencies and strong Q3 performance, but regulatory and cost challenges remain.
Positive Factors
Operational Achievements
Neste's record high sales in renewable products demonstrate strong market demand and effective operational strategies, supporting long-term growth.
Cost Management
Effective cost management and CapEx control enhance financial stability, allowing Neste to allocate resources efficiently for future growth.
Improved Refining Margin
Higher refining margins indicate improved operational efficiency and profitability, strengthening Neste's competitive position in the market.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
A significant revenue decline suggests potential market challenges and operational inefficiencies, which could hinder long-term growth prospects.
Rising Leverage
Increased leverage may strain financial flexibility, impacting Neste's ability to invest in growth initiatives and manage economic downturns.
Regulatory Uncertainties
Regulatory uncertainties can affect market demand and operational planning, posing risks to Neste's strategic objectives and market expansion.
Neste (NTOIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.78B
Dividend Yield4.42%
Average Volume (3M)701.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.1
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth-4.13%
EPS Growth-119.45%
CountryUS
Employees5,408
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.13
Shares Outstanding1,538,422,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,136
30 Day Avg. Volume701
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda41.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.20Price Target Upside1.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNeste Oyj provides renewable and oil products in Finland and other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, North and South America, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services, and Others. The Renewable Products segment produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, renewable jet fuels and solutions, and renewable solvents, as well as raw material for bioplastics based on its technology to wholesale markets. The Oil Products segment produces, markets, and sells diesel fuel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, base oils, gasoline components, small engine gasoline, solvents, liquid gases, and bitumen. This segment serves retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, petrochemicals companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. The Marketing & Services segment markets and sells petroleum products and associated services to private motorists, industry, transport companies, farmers, and heating oil customers through a network of 947 service stations, as well as direct sales. The Others segment offers engineering and technology solutions. The company also manufactures raw materials for polymers and chemicals materials. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
How the Company Makes MoneyNeste generates revenue primarily through the sale of its renewable fuels and related products. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and other renewable products derived from waste and residues. Additionally, Neste benefits from partnerships with various stakeholders in the aviation and transportation sectors, which facilitate the adoption of its sustainable fuels. The company also engages in strategic collaborations and joint ventures that enhance its production capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings. Neste's commitment to sustainability and innovation positions it favorably in the growing market for renewable energy solutions.
Neste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Neste reported strong financial results with significant achievements in renewable product sales and refining margins. Operational efficiencies and cost management contributed positively. However, challenges remain with regulatory uncertainties, feedstock cost pressures, and expected maintenance impacts in Q4.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q3 Financial Performance
Neste reported a comparable EBITDA of EUR 531 million, with contributions from Renewable Products at EUR 266 million, Oil Products at EUR 232 million, and Marketing & Services at EUR 34 million. The performance improvement program achieved a run rate of EUR 229 million by the end of Q3.
Operational Achievements in Renewable Products
Record high SAF sales volume was achieved, with over 1 million tons of renewable products sold in Q3. The comparable sales margin in renewable products rose significantly to almost $500 per ton.
Improved Refining Margin
The total refining margin for Oil Products exceeded $15 per barrel, significantly aiding the quarterly results.
Cost Management and CapEx Control
Neste successfully managed its CapEx, expecting to spend around EUR 1 billion for the full year, down from earlier projections. The company also noted a reduction in fixed and variable costs.
Negative Updates
Challenges in SAF Market and Regulatory Uncertainties
The SAF market faced headwinds with expired U.S. tax credits and regulatory uncertainties in Germany impacting future demand.
Feedstock Cost Pressures
Higher feedstock costs continued to present challenges, although some relief was noted in animal fat prices.
Maintenance Impact on Future Performance
Scheduled maintenance in Q4 at Rotterdam and Singapore refineries is expected to impact margins by approximately $100 per ton.
Company Guidance
During the Neste Q3 earnings call, several key metrics and updates were provided. The company reported a comparable EBITDA of EUR 531 million, with EUR 266 million from Renewable Products, EUR 232 million from Oil Products, and EUR 34 million from Marketing & Services. The performance improvement program achieved a EUR 229 million annualized run rate improvement by the end of Q3, with a target of EUR 350 million. Safety metrics showed a gradual decline in the total recordable incident frequency rate. The Rotterdam capacity project was noted as a significant undertaking, and Renewable Products saw a record high SAF sales volume. The total refining margin for Oil Products exceeded $15 per barrel, and EBITDA was EUR 531 million. The company's leverage remained below the 40% target, and CapEx guidance was updated to around EUR 1 billion for the year. The call also highlighted the importance of regulatory developments, particularly the RED III implementation in Germany, which could potentially increase demand by 1 to 2 million tons.Neste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Neste faces significant financial challenges, particularly in terms of profitability and revenue growth. The income statement reflects declining revenues and negative margins, while the balance sheet shows increased leverage. Cash flow stability is a concern, with declining free cash flow growth. Despite these challenges, the company has a strong equity base, which could support future recovery efforts.Income Statement
Neste's income statement shows significant volatility. The TTM data reveals a concerning revenue decline of 62.8% and a negative net profit margin of -0.91%, indicating profitability challenges. Historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth rates and declining margins, with the most recent TTM figures reflecting negative EBIT and net income. These trends suggest potential operational inefficiencies and market challenges.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet indicates moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased over time, reaching 0.74 in the TTM period, which suggests rising leverage. However, the equity ratio remains healthy, and the company maintains a substantial equity base. The negative return on equity in the TTM period highlights profitability issues, but past performance shows stronger returns, indicating potential for recovery.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals mixed results. The TTM period shows a significant decline in free cash flow growth, but operating cash flow remains positive. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively stable, suggesting some resilience in cash generation. However, the negative free cash flow growth and fluctuating free cash flow to net income ratio indicate potential cash management challenges.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.72B | 20.64B | 22.93B | 25.71B | 15.15B | 11.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.38B | 2.05B | 3.66B | 3.42B | 2.81B | 1.81B |
| EBITDA | 374.00M | 700.00M | 2.58B | 3.00B | 2.62B | 1.38B |
| Net Income | -188.00M | -95.00M | 1.43B | 1.89B | 1.77B | 712.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.51B | 15.58B | 15.98B | 14.92B | 12.42B | 9.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 981.00M | 955.00M | 1.58B | 1.27B | 1.72B | 1.57B |
| Total Debt | 5.34B | 5.15B | 4.07B | 2.62B | 1.76B | 1.31B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.33B | 8.16B | 7.52B | 6.59B | 5.43B | 3.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.18B | 7.42B | 8.46B | 8.32B | 6.98B | 5.92B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 387.00M | -369.00M | 849.00M | -546.00M | 1.02B | 1.29B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.68B | 1.18B | 2.28B | 1.20B | 1.99B | 2.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -1.50B | -1.53B | -1.59B | -1.48B | -1.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -301.00M | -314.00M | -441.00M | -37.00M | -377.00M | -961.00M |
Neste Technical Analysis
Positive
11.03
Price Trends
9.66
Positive
8.55
Positive
6.87
Positive
Market Momentum
0.33
Negative
74.25
Negative
99.77
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.86, above the 50-day MA of 9.66, and above the 200-day MA of 6.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.25 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTOIY.
Neste Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ― | $51.88B | 35.52 | 6.07% | 2.61% | -8.48% | -56.92% | |
| ― | $55.23B | 37.71 | 6.00% | 3.41% | -12.80% | -64.40% | |
| ― | $8.17B | 26.26 | 6.62% | 6.77% | -8.65% | -73.25% | |
| ― | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
| ― | $9.87B | -112.42 | -0.93% | 3.71% | -14.58% | -107.50% | |
| ― | $58.44B | 28.47 | 11.24% | 1.86% | -10.03% | -64.63% | |
| ― | $14.78B | 19.07 | -2.45% | 4.42% | -4.13% | -119.45% |
* Energy Sector Average
NTOIY
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11.03
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46.29%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.