Neste (NTOIY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.64B
• Dividend Yield: 4.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 701.00
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -6.60%
• EPS Growth: -121.65%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,408
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 1,538,422,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,136
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 701
• PEG Ratio: 0.92
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.45
• P/FCF Ratio: -25.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.20
• 1Y Price Target: $11.20
• Price Target Upside: 3.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(6.48% Upside)

Neste's overall stock score reflects a mixed outlook. The most significant factor is the financial performance, which shows challenges in profitability and leverage. Technical analysis provides a positive outlook with bullish momentum. Valuation is a concern due to the negative P/E ratio, despite a good dividend yield. The earnings call adds a positive note with strong Q3 results, but regulatory and cost challenges remain.

Positive Factors

Renewable Product Sales

The record sales volume in renewable products indicates strong market demand and reinforces Neste's leadership in sustainable fuels, supporting long-term revenue growth.

Operational Efficiency

The successful performance improvement program enhances operational efficiency, which can lead to sustained cost reductions and improved profitability over time.

Refining Margin Improvement

Improved refining margins contribute positively to profitability, indicating effective cost management and competitive positioning in the oil refining sector.

Negative Factors

Regulatory Uncertainties

Regulatory uncertainties can hinder market expansion and demand for sustainable fuels, posing risks to future revenue and strategic growth plans.

Feedstock Cost Pressures

Persistent feedstock cost pressures can erode margins and profitability, affecting the company's ability to maintain competitive pricing and financial stability.

Maintenance Impact

Scheduled maintenance can temporarily reduce production capacity and margins, impacting short-term financial performance and operational efficiency.

Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Neste (NTOIY) is a Finnish company specializing in renewable fuels and sustainable solutions for the transportation and chemical industries. As a global leader in the production of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, Neste focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting a circular economy. The company's core products include Neste MY Renewable Diesel, a low-emission fuel made from waste and residues, and Neste MY Sustainable Aviation Fuel, designed to help the aviation sector lower its carbon footprint. Neste operates in the renewable products and oil refining sectors, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance sustainability in energy and chemical production.

How the Company Makes Money

Neste generates revenue primarily through the sale of its renewable fuels and related products. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and other renewable products derived from waste and residues. Additionally, Neste benefits from partnerships with various stakeholders in the aviation and transportation sectors, which facilitate the adoption of its sustainable fuels. The company also engages in strategic collaborations and joint ventures that enhance its production capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings. Neste's commitment to sustainability and innovation positions it favorably in the growing market for renewable energy solutions.

Neste Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Neste's financial performance shows challenges with declining revenue and profitability, increasing leverage, and fluctuating cash flows. While there is some strength in cash generation, operational efficiency and profitability need improvement.

Income Statement

Neste's income statement shows a declining trend in revenue and profitability. The TTM data indicates a negative net profit margin and a slight decrease in revenue compared to the previous year. Gross profit margin has also decreased, reflecting cost pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are low, indicating challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which has increased over recent years, indicating rising leverage. However, the equity ratio remains stable. Return on equity has turned negative in the TTM period, signaling profitability issues. Overall, the balance sheet shows moderate stability with some concerns over increasing debt levels.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a significant improvement in free cash flow growth in the TTM period, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some ability to generate cash relative to net income. However, historical fluctuations in free cash flow growth suggest potential volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	20.40B	20.64B	22.93B	25.71B	15.15B	11.74B
Gross Profit	1.48B	2.05B	3.66B	3.42B	2.81B	1.81B
EBITDA	910.96M	700.00M	2.58B	2.97B	2.59B	1.38B
Net Income	-87.13M	-95.00M	1.43B	1.89B	1.77B	712.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.18B	15.58B	15.98B	14.92B	12.42B	9.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	903.58M	955.00M	1.58B	1.27B	1.72B	1.57B
Total Debt	6.12B	5.15B	4.07B	2.62B	1.76B	1.31B
Total Liabilities	9.69B	8.16B	7.52B	6.59B	5.43B	3.89B
Stockholders Equity	8.50B	7.42B	8.46B	8.32B	6.98B	5.92B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	607.48M	-369.00M	849.00M	-546.00M	1.02B	1.29B
Operating Cash Flow	1.63B	1.18B	2.28B	1.20B	1.99B	2.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.19B	-1.50B	-1.53B	-1.59B	-1.48B	-1.04B
Financing Cash Flow	-610.09M	-314.00M	-441.00M	-37.00M	-377.00M	-961.00M

Neste Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.32, above the 50-day MA of 10.22, and above the 200-day MA of 7.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTOIY.

Neste Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	73 Outperform	$51.93B	35.22	5.38%	3.69%	-10.56%	-53.06%
SUN	72 Outperform	$7.98B	17.77	8.27%	6.93%	-5.18%	-33.14%
VLO	69 Neutral	$49.63B	33.87	6.07%	2.78%	-8.48%	-56.92%
DINO	68 Neutral	$8.68B	22.72	4.07%	4.24%	-9.55%	27.65%
MPC	66 Neutral	$50.60B	17.95	15.98%	2.22%	-6.37%	-25.83%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
NTOIY	61 Neutral	$16.64B	-161.43	-2.45%	4.50%	-6.60%	-121.65%

Neste Corporate Events

Neste Corporation Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance

Neste Corporation, a leader in renewable products and oil refining, has reported its interim financial results for January to September 2025, showcasing its strategic focus on performance improvement and market resilience. The company, known for its production of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, operates primarily in the energy sector with a commitment to sustainability and innovation.

Neste Corporation’s Strong Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

Neste Corporation’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust financial health, underscored by strong achievements in renewable product sales and refining margins. The sentiment was largely positive, driven by operational efficiencies and effective cost management. However, the company acknowledged challenges such as regulatory uncertainties, feedstock cost pressures, and anticipated maintenance impacts in the fourth quarter.