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Neste (NTOIY)
OTHER OTC:NTOIY
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Neste
(OTC:NTOIY)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
â–²(6.48% Upside)
Neste's overall stock score reflects a mixed outlook. The most significant factor is the financial performance, which shows challenges in profitability and leverage. Technical analysis provides a positive outlook with bullish momentum. Valuation is a concern due to the negative P/E ratio, despite a good dividend yield. The earnings call adds a positive note with strong Q3 results, but regulatory and cost challenges remain.
Positive Factors
Renewable Product Sales
The record sales volume in renewable products indicates strong market demand and reinforces Neste's leadership in sustainable fuels, supporting long-term revenue growth.
Operational Efficiency
The successful performance improvement program enhances operational efficiency, which can lead to sustained cost reductions and improved profitability over time.
Refining Margin Improvement
Improved refining margins contribute positively to profitability, indicating effective cost management and competitive positioning in the oil refining sector.
Negative Factors
Regulatory Uncertainties
Regulatory uncertainties can hinder market expansion and demand for sustainable fuels, posing risks to future revenue and strategic growth plans.
Feedstock Cost Pressures
Persistent feedstock cost pressures can erode margins and profitability, affecting the company's ability to maintain competitive pricing and financial stability.
Maintenance Impact
Scheduled maintenance can temporarily reduce production capacity and margins, impacting short-term financial performance and operational efficiency.
Neste (NTOIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.00B
Dividend Yield4.38%
Average Volume (3M)701.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth-6.60%
EPS Growth-121.65%
CountryUS
Employees5,408
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.13
Shares Outstanding1,538,422,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,136
30 Day Avg. Volume701
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.92
Price to Book (P/B)1.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio-25.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.20Price Target Upside3.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Neste Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNeste (NTOIY) is a Finnish company specializing in renewable fuels and sustainable solutions for the transportation and chemical industries. As a global leader in the production of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, Neste focuses on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting a circular economy. The company's core products include Neste MY Renewable Diesel, a low-emission fuel made from waste and residues, and Neste MY Sustainable Aviation Fuel, designed to help the aviation sector lower its carbon footprint. Neste operates in the renewable products and oil refining sectors, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance sustainability in energy and chemical production.
How the Company Makes MoneyNeste generates revenue primarily through the sale of its renewable fuels and related products. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and other renewable products derived from waste and residues. Additionally, Neste benefits from partnerships with various stakeholders in the aviation and transportation sectors, which facilitate the adoption of its sustainable fuels. The company also engages in strategic collaborations and joint ventures that enhance its production capabilities and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings. Neste's commitment to sustainability and innovation positions it favorably in the growing market for renewable energy solutions.
Neste Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Neste reported strong financial results with significant achievements in renewable product sales and refining margins. Operational efficiencies and cost management contributed positively. However, challenges remain with regulatory uncertainties, feedstock cost pressures, and expected maintenance impacts in Q4.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q3 Financial Performance
Neste reported a comparable EBITDA of EUR 531 million, with contributions from Renewable Products at EUR 266 million, Oil Products at EUR 232 million, and Marketing & Services at EUR 34 million. The performance improvement program achieved a run rate of EUR 229 million by the end of Q3.
Operational Achievements in Renewable Products
Record high SAF sales volume was achieved, with over 1 million tons of renewable products sold in Q3. The comparable sales margin in renewable products rose significantly to almost $500 per ton.
Improved Refining Margin
The total refining margin for Oil Products exceeded $15 per barrel, significantly aiding the quarterly results.
Cost Management and CapEx Control
Neste successfully managed its CapEx, expecting to spend around EUR 1 billion for the full year, down from earlier projections. The company also noted a reduction in fixed and variable costs.
Negative Updates
Challenges in SAF Market and Regulatory Uncertainties
The SAF market faced headwinds with expired U.S. tax credits and regulatory uncertainties in Germany impacting future demand.
Feedstock Cost Pressures
Higher feedstock costs continued to present challenges, although some relief was noted in animal fat prices.
Maintenance Impact on Future Performance
Scheduled maintenance in Q4 at Rotterdam and Singapore refineries is expected to impact margins by approximately $100 per ton.
Company Guidance
During the Neste Q3 earnings call, several key metrics and updates were provided. The company reported a comparable EBITDA of EUR 531 million, with EUR 266 million from Renewable Products, EUR 232 million from Oil Products, and EUR 34 million from Marketing & Services. The performance improvement program achieved a EUR 229 million annualized run rate improvement by the end of Q3, with a target of EUR 350 million. Safety metrics showed a gradual decline in the total recordable incident frequency rate. The Rotterdam capacity project was noted as a significant undertaking, and Renewable Products saw a record high SAF sales volume. The total refining margin for Oil Products exceeded $15 per barrel, and EBITDA was EUR 531 million. The company's leverage remained below the 40% target, and CapEx guidance was updated to around EUR 1 billion for the year. The call also highlighted the importance of regulatory developments, particularly the RED III implementation in Germany, which could potentially increase demand by 1 to 2 million tons.Neste Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Neste's financial performance shows challenges with declining revenue and profitability, increasing leverage, and fluctuating cash flows. While there is some strength in cash generation, operational efficiency and profitability need improvement.Income Statement
Neste's income statement shows a declining trend in revenue and profitability. The TTM data indicates a negative net profit margin and a slight decrease in revenue compared to the previous year. Gross profit margin has also decreased, reflecting cost pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are low, indicating challenges in operational efficiency.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, which has increased over recent years, indicating rising leverage. However, the equity ratio remains stable. Return on equity has turned negative in the TTM period, signaling profitability issues. Overall, the balance sheet shows moderate stability with some concerns over increasing debt levels.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows a significant improvement in free cash flow growth in the TTM period, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some ability to generate cash relative to net income. However, historical fluctuations in free cash flow growth suggest potential volatility.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.62B | 20.64B | 22.93B | 25.71B | 15.15B | 11.74B |
| Gross Profit | 1.42B | 2.05B | 3.66B | 3.42B | 2.81B | 1.81B |
| EBITDA | 830.83M | 700.00M | 2.58B | 2.97B | 2.59B | 1.38B |
| Net Income | -105.24M | -95.00M | 1.43B | 1.89B | 1.77B | 712.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.53B | 15.58B | 15.98B | 14.92B | 12.42B | 9.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 771.46M | 955.00M | 1.58B | 1.27B | 1.72B | 1.57B |
| Total Debt | 5.23B | 5.15B | 4.07B | 2.62B | 1.76B | 1.31B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.27B | 8.16B | 7.52B | 6.59B | 5.43B | 3.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.25B | 7.42B | 8.46B | 8.32B | 6.98B | 5.92B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 603.75M | -369.00M | 849.00M | -546.00M | 1.02B | 1.29B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.60B | 1.18B | 2.28B | 1.20B | 1.99B | 2.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.14B | -1.50B | -1.53B | -1.59B | -1.48B | -1.04B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -583.00M | -314.00M | -441.00M | -37.00M | -377.00M | -961.00M |
Neste Technical Analysis
Positive
10.80
Price Trends
10.74
Positive
10.25
Positive
8.29
Positive
Market Momentum
0.31
Positive
60.11
Neutral
80.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NTOIY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.46, above the 50-day MA of 10.74, and above the 200-day MA of 8.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NTOIY.
Neste Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $8.82B | 19.66 | 8.27% | 6.88% | -5.18% | -33.14% | |
69 Neutral | $55.72B | 37.79 | 5.38% | 3.68% | -10.56% | -53.06% | |
68 Neutral | $8.95B | 23.40 | 4.07% | 4.26% | -9.55% | 27.65% | |
66 Neutral | $52.79B | 18.73 | 15.98% | 2.24% | -6.37% | -25.83% | |
66 Neutral | $55.96B | 38.19 | 6.07% | 2.74% | -8.48% | -56.92% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
61 Neutral | $18.00B | -174.53 | -2.45% | 4.38% | -6.60% | -121.65% |
* Energy Sector Average
NTOIY
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5.23
80.81%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.