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Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC)
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Norfolk Southern (NSC) AI Stock Analysis

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NSC

Norfolk Southern

(NYSE:NSC)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$300.00
▲(5.86% Upside)
Norfolk Southern's strong financial performance is a key strength, supported by efficient operations and profitability. However, technical indicators and earnings call insights reveal challenges, including bearish momentum and revenue shortfalls. Valuation metrics suggest moderate potential, with competitive pressures and macroeconomic headwinds posing risks.
Positive Factors
Operational Efficiency
Improved fuel efficiency enhances cost management and environmental sustainability, supporting long-term profitability and compliance.
Safety Improvements
Enhanced safety measures reduce operational risks and potential liabilities, fostering a safer work environment and operational reliability.
Merchandise Volume Growth
Growth in merchandise volume indicates strong demand in key sectors, contributing to revenue stability and market presence expansion.
Negative Factors
Revenue Shortfall
Revenue shortfalls due to competitive pressures and unmaterialized volume surges could impact financial performance and strategic goals.
Coal Revenue Decline
Declining coal revenue reflects structural shifts in energy markets, challenging traditional revenue streams and necessitating diversification.
Intermodal Volume Challenges
Decreased intermodal volumes highlight vulnerabilities to trade policies and competitive pressures, affecting growth in a key segment.

Norfolk Southern (NSC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Norfolk Southern Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNorfolk Southern Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods in the United States. The company transports agriculture, forest, and consumer products comprising soybeans, wheat, corn, fertilizers, livestock and poultry feed, food products, food oils, flour, sweeteners, ethanol, lumber and wood products, pulp board and paper products, wood fibers, wood pulp, scrap paper, beverages, canned goods, and consumer products; chemicals consist of sulfur and related chemicals, petroleum products, chlorine and bleaching compounds, plastics, rubber, industrial chemicals, chemical wastes, and sand; metals and construction materials, such as steel, aluminum products, machinery, scrap metals, cement, aggregates, minerals, clay, transportation equipment, and military-related products; and automotive, including finished motor vehicles and automotive parts, as well as coal. It also transports overseas freight through various Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports; and provides commuter rail passenger transportation services and operates an intermodal network. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated approximately 19,300 route miles in 22 states and the District of Columbia. Norfolk Southern Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.
How the Company Makes MoneyNorfolk Southern generates revenue primarily through freight transportation services. The company charges customers for moving goods via its rail network, with revenue streams categorized into several segments: intermodal, coal, automotive, and merchandise. The intermodal segment, which involves transporting containers and trailers, is a significant source of revenue due to the growing demand for efficient logistics solutions. The coal segment has historically been a major contributor, particularly in regions rich in natural resources. Additionally, Norfolk Southern partners with various companies across industries to optimize supply chain logistics, enhancing its service offerings and customer base. Factors influencing its earnings include rail traffic volume, freight rates, operational efficiency, and the overall health of the economy, which affects demand for transportation services.

Norfolk Southern Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Shows revenue generated from different business segments, highlighting which areas are driving growth and profitability, and helping assess the company's strategic focus and market position.
Chart InsightsNorfolk Southern's Merchandise segment shows a steady recovery post-2020, with recent growth indicating resilience despite economic pressures. Coal revenue, after peaking in 2022, is experiencing a gradual decline, reflecting broader industry shifts away from coal reliance. Intermodal revenue has stabilized after a peak in 2022, suggesting adjustments to demand fluctuations. The absence of recent earnings call insights leaves the strategic response to these trends unclear, but the data suggests a focus on diversifying revenue streams and adapting to changing market dynamics.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Norfolk Southern Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mix of positive operational efficiencies and safety improvements, offset by significant revenue shortfalls and competitive pressures affecting overall performance. While there are strong internal improvements and future opportunities tied to the proposed merger, current challenges related to competition and market conditions weigh heavily on the outlook.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Safety and Service Improvements
Train accident and employee injury rates continue to improve with a 7.8% improvement in FRA personal injury ratio and a 27.7% improvement in train accident ratio year-to-date compared to 2024.
Operational Efficiency Gains
Fuel efficiency attained a new quarterly record with a 5% year-over-year gain, and operational metrics improved, such as a 26% reduction in Amtrak host delays and a 19% reduction in recrews.
Merchandise Volume Growth
Volume grew 6% year-over-year in merchandise markets, driven by auto, chemical, and metals and construction markets.
Record Quarterly Fuel Efficiency
Achieved an all-time quarterly fuel efficiency record of 1.01, representing a 5% year-over-year gain.
Negative Updates
Revenue Shortfall and Competitive Pressure
Revenues were short by $75 million compared to expectations, impacted by unmaterialized volume surges and competitive responses to the merger announcement, which is expected to continue affecting volume and revenue.
Coal Revenue Decline
Export coal markets faced meaningful declines with a 7% drop in RPU less fuel due to weakening seaborne coal prices.
Intermodal Volume Challenges
Intermodal volumes decreased by 2% due to ongoing trade and tariff uncertainty and increased competitive activity following the merger announcement.
Claims Expense Increase
Claims expenses were elevated in the quarter, driven by unfavorable developments on older claims and claims inflation.
Company Guidance
During the Norfolk Southern Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company highlighted several key metrics and guidance points. Norfolk Southern's adjusted operating ratio for the quarter was 63.3%, with earnings per share at $3.30. The company achieved a 2% year-over-year growth in both revenue and revenue per unit (RPU), despite flat overall volume and a 4% increase in gross ton-miles (GTMs). Merchandise volume increased by 6%, driven by growth in auto, chemical, and metals markets, while intermodal volumes decreased by 2%, and coal RPU declined by 7% due to weaker seaborne coal prices. The company noted improvements in safety, with a 27.7% improvement in train accident ratio and a 7.8% improvement in the FRA personal injury ratio year-to-date. Despite these advancements, Norfolk Southern faced challenges, including macroeconomic headwinds and competitive pressures related to a merger announcement, which impacted revenue expectations by approximately $75 million. Looking forward, the company anticipates continued revenue challenges but is focused on maintaining a cost structure in the $2 billion to $2.1 billion range for the fourth quarter while targeting $600 million in cumulative productivity gains by 2026.

Norfolk Southern Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Norfolk Southern demonstrates strong financial health with robust profitability and efficient operations. The income statement shows high profit margins, and the balance sheet reflects a stable capital structure despite moderate leverage. Cash flow is solid, supporting operational and financial stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Norfolk Southern's income statement shows strong profitability with a TTM net profit margin of 27.51% and a gross profit margin of 47.99%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 42.15% and 53.42%, respectively. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a slight decline in the most recent annual report but a positive trend in the TTM data. Overall, the company demonstrates solid profitability and efficiency in its operations.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate level of leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.17 in the TTM period, which is slightly improved from previous years. Return on equity is strong at 23.35%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced capital structure. While the company maintains a healthy financial position, the leverage could pose a risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trajectory with a 7.15% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.15, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also solid at 0.48. Overall, Norfolk Southern demonstrates strong cash flow management, supporting its operational and financial stability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.23B12.12B12.16B12.74B11.14B9.79B
Gross Profit4.16B3.76B2.81B4.73B4.37B3.40B
EBITDA6.01B5.49B4.34B6.04B5.71B4.31B
Net Income2.96B2.62B1.83B3.27B3.00B2.01B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets44.58B43.68B41.65B38.88B38.49B37.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.42B1.64B1.57B456.00M839.00M1.11B
Total Debt17.08B17.48B17.57B15.59B14.25B13.11B
Total Liabilities29.44B29.38B28.87B26.15B24.85B23.17B
Stockholders Equity15.14B14.31B12.78B12.73B13.64B14.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.10B1.67B830.00M2.27B2.79B2.14B
Operating Cash Flow4.25B4.05B3.18B4.22B4.25B3.64B
Investing Cash Flow-1.91B-2.78B-2.18B-1.60B-1.22B-1.18B
Financing Cash Flow-1.90B-1.20B115.00M-3.00B-3.31B-1.93B

Norfolk Southern Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price283.38
Price Trends
50DMA
285.63
Negative
100DMA
276.93
Positive
200DMA
256.31
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.01
Positive
RSI
43.59
Neutral
STOCH
21.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NSC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 283.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 288.18, below the 50-day MA of 285.63, and above the 200-day MA of 256.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NSC.

Norfolk Southern Risk Analysis

Norfolk Southern disclosed 26 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Norfolk Southern reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Norfolk Southern Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$67.07B23.4222.60%1.42%-3.80%-17.32%
$58.74B14.5914.98%2.23%1.14%4.99%
C$83.95B18.5421.83%2.61%0.63%-14.20%
$130.71B18.7141.62%2.45%1.06%8.21%
$16.08B29.2315.13%1.05%-1.60%4.87%
$69.35B21.6220.46%1.87%0.48%22.88%
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NSC
Norfolk Southern
283.38
39.81
16.34%
TSE:CNR
Canadian National Railway
134.49
-12.06
-8.23%
CSX
CSX
36.02
3.17
9.65%
FDX
FedEx
253.82
-11.14
-4.20%
JBHT
JB Hunt
168.86
-11.10
-6.17%
UNP
Union Pacific
220.37
-4.20
-1.87%

Norfolk Southern Corporate Events

Norfolk Southern Corp’s Merger with Union Pacific: Navigating Uncertainties and Potential Risks
Oct 25, 2025

The potential merger involving Norfolk Southern Corp is fraught with uncertainties, as it hinges on various conditions that may not be met, including approvals from Union Pacific shareholders and regulatory bodies. Failure to complete the merger could lead to significant adverse effects, such as a decline in stock prices, substantial termination fees, and potential litigation. Additionally, the company faces business uncertainties and contractual restrictions during the pending merger, which could negatively impact its operations and financial performance. The delay or failure of the merger could also result in a loss of key management personnel, further exacerbating the company’s challenges.

Norfolk Southern’s Earnings Call: Mixed Signals Amid Challenges
Oct 25, 2025

The recent earnings call of Norfolk Southern Corp. presented a mixed sentiment, showcasing positive strides in operational efficiencies and safety improvements, yet overshadowed by significant revenue shortfalls and competitive pressures. While internal improvements and future opportunities related to a proposed merger were highlighted, the current challenges posed by competition and market conditions cast a shadow over the company’s outlook.

Norfolk Southern Reports Steady Q3 2025 Performance
Oct 24, 2025

Norfolk Southern Corporation, a major player in the freight transportation sector, operates a 22-state network and is known for its extensive intermodal capabilities and commitment to sustainability.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Norfolk Southern Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Oct 23, 2025

On October 23, 2025, Norfolk Southern Corporation announced its third-quarter financial results for 2025, reporting a revenue of $3.1 billion and an income from railway operations of $1.1 billion. Despite a decrease in income from railway operations compared to the previous year due to a $380 million benefit from railway line sales in 2024, the company achieved a record in fuel efficiency and executed a significant land sale expected to boost future rail volumes. Adjusted results showed a slight improvement in operating ratio and earnings per share compared to the previous year, reflecting the company’s focus on safety, service, and productivity amidst a dynamic freight market.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSC) stock is a Buy with a $323.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Norfolk Southern stock, see the NSC Stock Forecast page.

Union Pacific to Acquire Norfolk Southern in Strategic Merger
Oct 1, 2025

Union Pacific Corporation is set to acquire Norfolk Southern Corporation through a merger agreement announced on July 28, 2025. The merger, which involves two stages, will result in Norfolk Southern becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of Union Pacific. Shareholders of Norfolk Southern will receive Union Pacific common stock and cash as part of the merger consideration. Upon completion, former Norfolk Southern shareholders will own approximately 27% of Union Pacific’s outstanding common stock. This strategic acquisition is expected to enhance Union Pacific’s market position in the rail transportation industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSC) stock is a Buy with a $347.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Norfolk Southern stock, see the NSC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Norfolk Southern Approves Executive Retention Awards Amid Merger
Positive
Sep 29, 2025

On September 23, 2025, Norfolk Southern‘s Board of Directors approved one-time cash retention awards for its named executive officers as part of a transaction bonus program. This initiative, linked to the merger agreement with Union Pacific Corporation, aims to ensure leadership stability and focus amid the merger’s uncertainty, benefiting the company’s stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSC) stock is a Buy with a $339.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Norfolk Southern stock, see the NSC Stock Forecast page.

Norfolk Southern Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Jul 30, 2025

Norfolk Southern Corporation is a leading freight transportation company operating a 22-state network in the United States, known for its extensive intermodal network and commitment to sustainability. In its second quarter of 2025, Norfolk Southern reported a 4% increase in net income and a 5% rise in earnings per share, with adjusted figures showing even stronger growth. The company achieved $3.1 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in income from railway operations, reflecting a robust performance despite market uncertainties. Key financial metrics included a 62.2% operating ratio and $3.41 diluted earnings per share, with adjusted figures showing improvements over the previous year. Looking ahead, Norfolk Southern expects a 2-3% revenue growth for the full year and anticipates further improvements in its operating ratio, although it acknowledges potential challenges in the third quarter. The company also announced a significant merger with Union Pacific, aiming to create America’s first transcontinental railroad, a move that could reshape the industry landscape.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Norfolk Southern Announces Merger with Union Pacific
Neutral
Jul 29, 2025

On July 28, 2025, Norfolk Southern Corporation entered into a merger agreement with Union Pacific Corporation, which will see Union Pacific acquire Norfolk Southern in a stock-and-cash transaction. The merger will result in Norfolk Southern becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of Union Pacific, with certain governance changes including the appointment of Norfolk Southern directors to Union Pacific’s board. The merger is subject to customary conditions, including shareholder and regulatory approvals, and includes provisions for termination fees in specific circumstances.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSC) stock is a Hold with a $275.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Norfolk Southern stock, see the NSC Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Norfolk Southern Reports Q2 Results, Announces Major Merger
Positive
Jul 29, 2025

On July 29, 2025, Norfolk Southern Corporation reported its second-quarter financial results, showing a 4% increase in net income and a 5% rise in earnings per share. The company achieved $3.1 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in income from railway operations, with an operating ratio of 62.2%. Adjusted figures, excluding restructuring costs and the Eastern Ohio incident, showed a 7% improvement in income from railway operations and an 8% increase in earnings per share. Norfolk Southern also announced a merger with Union Pacific to create the first transcontinental railroad in the U.S., valued at $85 billion. This merger is expected to significantly impact the company’s market position and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSC) stock is a Hold with a $275.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Norfolk Southern stock, see the NSC Stock Forecast page.

M&A Transactions
Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific Announce Major Merger
Positive
Jul 29, 2025

On July 29, 2025, Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific announced a merger agreement to create America’s first transcontinental railroad, valued at over $250 billion. This merger is expected to transform the U.S. supply chain, enhance freight competition, and provide significant economic benefits, including job preservation and growth opportunities for employees.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSC) stock is a Hold with a $275.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Norfolk Southern stock, see the NSC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 26, 2025