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Noble Roman's Inc (NROM)
OTHER OTC:NROM
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Noble Roman's
(OTC:NROM)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$0.36
▲(6.76% Upside)
The score is held back mainly by balance-sheet risk and limited debt-service capacity despite a clear operating and cash-flow rebound. Valuation is supportive given the low P/E, while technical indicators show weak near-term momentum. Earnings-call commentary was generally constructive on profitability and expansion, but refinancing and macro/commodity pressures remain meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Diversified Revenue Streams
Noble Roman's multi-channel model—company stores, franchising and retail frozen products—creates durable, less capital-intensive cash flows. Franchising supplies steady royalties and supports expansion with lower capex, while retail distribution diversifies demand beyond restaurant traffic.
Improving Cash Generation
TTM positive free cash flow with FCF roughly tracking net income (~0.9x) shows earnings are converting into cash. Stronger cash conversion supports organic growth, funds modest franchise support, and provides a pathway to reduce leverage over time if margins remain stable.
Margin Recovery and EBITDA Growth
Margin expansion across channels (Craft Pizza margins rising, convenience program margins very high) and higher trailing EBITDA indicate improving unit economics. Structural margin gains increase the company's ability to fund growth and franchise incentives while absorbing commodity cost variability.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio around 3x is high for a restaurant operator and constrains financial flexibility. Elevated leverage raises vulnerability to demand or cost shocks, limits the ability to invest opportunistically, and makes the company more dependent on consistent cash generation to meet obligations.
Weak Debt Service Coverage
Operating cash flow covering a small fraction of debt (~0.16x) signals limited debt-service capacity despite positive FCF. Historical periods of negative free cash flow increase the chance that earnings volatility could quickly strain liquidity and force operational or financing compromises.
Refinancing Risk
Refinancing remains unresolved with existing terms only through June 2026, creating medium-term liquidity risk. If markets tighten or terms worsen, the company could face higher interest costs or restrictive covenants, which would hamper expansion plans and pressure free cash flow.
Noble Roman's (NROM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.92M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)16.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)0.01
Revenue Growth6.05%
EPS Growth37.10%
CountryUS
Employees36
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding22,215,511
10 Day Avg. Volume32,600
30 Day Avg. Volume16,555
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio24.32
Price to Book (P/B)3.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.51
P/FCF Ratio9.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.21
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Noble Roman's Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNoble Roman's, Inc. sells and services franchises, and licenses and operates foodservice locations for stand-alone restaurants and non-traditional foodservice operations. The company franchises, licenses, and operates foodservice locations under the Noble Roman's Craft Pizza & Pub, Noble Roman's Pizza, Noble Roman's Take-N-Bake, and Tuscano's Italian Style Subs trade names, which provide breadsticks and cheesy stix with dip, pizza, pasta, salads, wings, baked sandwiches, and other related breakfast products, as well as a selection of desserts. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 3,069 franchised/licensed outlets. Noble Roman's, Inc. was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyNoble Roman's generates revenue through multiple channels. The primary revenue streams include sales from company-owned restaurants, franchise fees, and royalties from franchisees. The company earns significant income from selling food products to retail outlets, leveraging its brand recognition in the frozen food segment. Additionally, partnerships with grocery chains and distributors extend its market reach. Noble Roman's franchise model allows the company to expand its footprint with lower capital risk, as franchisees invest in setting up the restaurants while paying ongoing royalties based on sales. The combination of direct sales, franchising, and retail distribution creates a diversified revenue model that contributes to the overall financial health of the company.
Noble Roman's Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 14, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted significant growth in revenue, net income, and margins, along with a successful expansion of franchise units. However, challenges such as a drop in consumer sentiment, commodity price fluctuations, and refinancing uncertainties posed concerns.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Net Income Before Taxes
Net income before taxes increased to $578,918 for the quarter, up from $193,314 in 2024.
Revenue Growth
Total revenue increased by 6.8% for the quarter compared to last year.
Improved Margins in Craft Pizza & Pub
Margins at Craft Pizza & Pub increased to 12.8% from 7.9% a year ago.
Convenience Store Program Success
Margin contribution from the convenience store program increased by 14.8% over 2024, with a margin rate increase to 73.4% from 65.2%.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA increased to approximately $3,825,000 at the end of Q3, up from $3,501,000 at the end of Q2.
Expansion in Franchise Units
Opened 13 new franchise units this quarter, with expectations of 27 additional new units during Q4.
Cheese Prices Stabilized
Cheese prices are currently at the 10-year long-term average, providing relief from previous high prices.
Negative Updates
Drop in Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment has dropped to a 3-year low, down 29.9% compared to last year.
Commodity Price Fluctuations
Meat prices have been unfavorable, impacting toppings due to avian flu and tariffs.
Challenges with Tariff Negotiations
Tariff negotiations, particularly with India, impacted franchise openings.
Impact of Government Shutdown
The government shutdown affected sales and consumer behavior.
Refinancing Challenges
Ongoing efforts to secure refinancing with developments yet to be announced.
Company Guidance
During the call, Noble Roman's provided a detailed overview of their financial performance metrics for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. The company reported a net income before taxes of $578,918, a significant increase from $193,314 in the same period of 2024. Total revenue rose by 6.8% compared to the previous year, with same-store sales in the Craft Pizza & Pub segment up by 4.2%. Margins at these locations increased from 7.9% to 12.8%. The convenience store program saw a 14.8% rise in margin contribution, reaching approximately $1.1 million, with the margin rate for this segment climbing to 73.4% from 65.2% the previous year. The adjusted EBITDA for the trailing twelve months increased from over $3 million at the end of 2024 to approximately $3,825,000 at the end of Q3 2025. The company also discussed plans to open about 27 new units in Q4 and highlighted ongoing refinancing efforts, with current terms secured until June 2026. Despite challenges with consumer sentiment and external factors like the government shutdown, the company has maintained a value-oriented strategy and plans to introduce new products to enhance margins.Noble Roman's Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Operating results have rebounded (stronger revenue, solid EBITDA margin ~21%, positive net margin ~6% and positive/free cash flow), but the balance sheet is a major constraint with still-elevated leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~3.0x) and limited flexibility. Cash flow covers only a modest portion of total debt (~0.16x), and results have been volatile historically.Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a sharp rebound: revenue is up strongly versus the prior year, operating profitability is solid (EBITDA margin ~21%), and net margin is positive (~6%) after near break-even in 2024. However, profitability has been volatile over the cycle (losses in 2022 and a very weak 2020), and gross margin in TTM is notably lower than 2023–2024 levels, suggesting less cushion if costs rise.68
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains the key constraint. TTM debt-to-equity is ~3.0x (improved from ~5–6x in 2023–2024), but it is still high for a restaurant operator and leaves equity relatively thin versus the debt load. Returns on equity are strong in TTM due to the earnings rebound, yet the balance sheet’s flexibility appears limited given the elevated leverage and history of earnings volatility.38
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash generation is moving in the right direction: TTM free cash flow is positive and up meaningfully, and free cash flow is broadly in line with net income (free cash flow to net income ~0.9x), indicating earnings are translating reasonably well into cash. The main weakness is debt service capacity: TTM operating cash flow covers only a modest portion of total debt (~0.16x), and cash flow has been uneven historically (including negative free cash flow in 2020 and 2022).56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.68M | 15.15M | 14.37M | 14.45M | 13.88M | 11.54M |
| Gross Profit | 4.93M | 4.65M | 5.54M | 3.05M | 4.38M | 4.41M |
| EBITDA | 3.30M | 1.98M | 3.58M | 1.37M | 3.07M | -1.15M |
| Net Income | 974.44K | -3.17K | 1.46M | -1.06M | 509.46K | -5.38M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.08M | 16.77M | 18.48M | 18.34M | 19.38M | 18.42M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 719.50K | 710.23K | 872.34K | 785.52K | 1.26M | 1.19M |
| Total Debt | 10.01M | 11.57M | 12.89M | 14.86M | 14.72M | 14.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 12.70M | 14.55M | 16.29M | 16.48M | 16.48M | 16.06M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.39M | 2.22M | 2.19M | 1.87M | 2.89M | 2.36M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.18M | 808.66K | 1.57M | -477.99K | 69.15K | -408.96K |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.32M | 896.97K | 1.57M | 29.58K | 1.52M | 1.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -135.51K | -88.30K | 13.82K | -507.57K | -1.45M | -2.08M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -929.29K | -887.41K | -1.50M | 0.00 | 1.39B | 1.39M |
Noble Roman's Technical Analysis
Positive
0.34
Price Trends
0.29
Positive
0.23
Positive
0.21
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
51.48
Neutral
64.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NROM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.34, above the 50-day MA of 0.29, and above the 200-day MA of 0.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NROM.
Noble Roman's Risk Analysis
Noble Roman's disclosed 12 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Noble Roman's reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Noble Roman's Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $47.47M | 17.22 | 20.05% | ― | 0.35% | 9.25% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $7.92M | 8.89 | ― | ― | 6.05% | 37.10% | |
46 Neutral | $12.25M | 12.13 | 3.85% | ― | 1.84% | 12.10% | |
43 Neutral | $7.90M | -8.74 | -11.53% | ― | -4.16% | 29.52% | |
42 Neutral | $6.85M | -0.02 | ― | 760.71% | -5.26% | -44.78% | |
40 Underperform | $23.66M | -2.15 | -29.84% | ― | -9.70% | -194.23% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Noble Roman's
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.