Neuropace, Inc. (NPCE)
NASDAQ:NPCE
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NeuroPace
(NASDAQ:NPCE)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$13.00
▼(-7.74% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
Overall score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing losses, cash burn, and leverage risk). Technicals are also soft with negative momentum and price below key moving averages. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call was relatively positive on growth, margins, and pipeline/regulatory progress, but near-term profitability guidance remains negative.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent multi-year top-line expansion demonstrates durable commercial adoption of the RNS System across implanting centers. Persistent high growth expands installed base and aftermarket opportunity, supporting recurring device and component sales and improving scale economics over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Persistent Cash Burn
Ongoing negative operating and free cash flow, despite narrowing losses, means the business still consumes cash and depends on external funding or runway management. This structural cash burn constrains strategic flexibility and increases dilution/refinancing risk if growth slows or investments intensify.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent multi-year top-line expansion demonstrates durable commercial adoption of the RNS System across implanting centers. Persistent high growth expands installed base and aftermarket opportunity, supporting recurring device and component sales and improving scale economics over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
NeuroPace (NPCE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$498.27M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)225.60K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth24.08%
EPS Growth24.08%
CountryUS
Employees184
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding33,666,946
10 Day Avg. Volume185,898
30 Day Avg. Volume225,598
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.81
Price to Book (P/B)26.55
Price to Sales (P/S)5.05
P/FCF Ratio-44.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-39.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.33Price Target Upside37.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$98.91M
NeuroPace Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NeuroPace, Inc. operates as a medical device company in the United States. It develops and sells RNS system, a brain-responsive neuromodulation system for treating medically refractory focal epilepsy by delivering personalized real-time treatment ...
How the Company Makes Money
NeuroPace makes money primarily by selling its RNS System for the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of implantable neurostimulation devices and related components provided for implantation procedures and (2)...
NeuroPace Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial execution and material clinical and product progress: robust revenue growth (Q4 +24%, FY +25%), sustained RNS momentum, margin expansion, positive adjusted EBITDA and cash generation in Q4, and meaningful regulatory and AI product milestones (IGE PMA acceptance; Seizure ID submission). Offsetting items include an expected near-term adjusted EBITDA loss for 2026 (‑$9M to ‑$10M) due to front-loaded commercial investments and seasonality, the wind-down of the DIXI partnership, and the need for payer coverage work before any IGE approval translates into revenue. Overall, the positives around growth, margins, product/clinical milestones and disciplined operating leverage significantly outweigh the manageable near-term headwinds and investment-driven profitability pressure.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $26.6M in Q4 2025, up 24% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenue of $100M, up 25% versus 2024.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Profitability Guidance Negative
Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be a loss of approximately $9M–$10M. Management expects adjusted EBITDA to dip in the first half of 2026 before improving in the second half due to seasonality and front-loaded investments.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $26.6M in Q4 2025, up 24% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenue of $100M, up 25% versus 2024.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NeuroPace reiterated full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of $98–$100 million, implying underlying core RNS growth of 20–22% versus 2025 (guidance excludes any IGE contribution, service revenue or DIXI), and gave first‑quarter 2026 revenue guidance of $21–$22 million; on a continuing‑operations, non‑GAAP basis (excluding stock‑based compensation, depreciation and amortization) it expects adjusted gross margin of 81.5–82.5%, full‑year adjusted operating expense of $90–$92 million (excluding ~ $10 million of stock‑based compensation), with non‑GAAP sales & marketing of $46–$48 million (excl. ~ $3M SBC), R&D of ~ $27 million (excl. ~ $3M SBC), and G&A of ~ $17 million (excl. ~ $4M SBC); full‑year adjusted EBITDA is expected to be a loss of roughly $9–$10 million, with front‑loaded investments driving a larger adjusted EBITDA deficit in H1 (a bit more than 50% of OpEx) and improvement in H2, DIXI to be treated as discontinued operations beginning Q1, and any modest service revenue in 2026 is currently excluded from guidance.NeuroPace Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
36
Negative
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 99.99M | 79.91M | 65.42M | 45.52M | 45.18M |
| Gross Profit | 77.22M | 59.09M | 48.12M | 32.49M | 33.44M |
| EBITDA | -14.39M | -16.57M | -22.83M | -36.57M | -28.37M |
| Net Income | -21.46M | -27.14M | -32.96M | -47.08M | -36.08M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 105.56M | 94.65M | 107.65M | 114.11M | 133.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 61.06M | 52.76M | 66.45M | 77.41M | 115.58M |
| Total Debt | 70.84M | 73.34M | 72.39M | 69.77M | 49.85M |
| Total Liabilities | 86.53M | 86.63M | 87.00M | 79.33M | 60.06M |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.03M | 8.01M | 20.65M | 34.78M | 73.50M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -11.34M | -18.25M | -19.87M | -37.47M | -24.96M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -11.01M | -17.95M | -19.70M | -36.87M | -24.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -332.00K | 8.99M | 23.03M | 23.80M | -85.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 19.60M | 4.33M | 8.13M | 490.00K | 102.53M |
NeuroPace Technical Analysis
Positive
14.09
Price Trends
14.45
Positive
15.16
Negative
12.56
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
58.91
Neutral
83.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NPCE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.82, below the 50-day MA of 14.45, and above the 200-day MA of 12.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NPCE.
NeuroPace Risk Analysis
NeuroPace disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NeuroPace reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NeuroPace Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $549.19M | 34.75 | 9.26% | ― | 9.28% | 21.00% | |
61 Neutral | $342.25M | 134.00 | 2.63% | ― | 251.54% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $703.14M | -15.08 | -31.77% | ― | ― | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $279.03M | -3.33 | -104.17% | ― | 31.94% | 36.59% | |
49 Neutral | $300.42M | -11.02 | -14.05% | ― | 10.75% | -7.15% | |
46 Neutral | $498.27M | -23.54 | -105.67% | ― | 24.08% | 24.08% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
NPCE
NeuroPace
14.80
3.13
26.82%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.