Neuropace, Inc. (NPCE)
NASDAQ:NPCE
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NeuroPace
(NASDAQ:NPCE)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(10.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial fundamentals—recent TTM growth reversal, ongoing losses and cash burn, and elevated leverage with a thin equity cushion. The earnings call was a meaningful positive with raised guidance, improving adjusted profitability outlook, and strong commercial/clinical momentum, while technicals are mixed-to-mildly constructive and valuation signals are limited based on the provided P/E and dividend data.
Positive Factors
High gross margins and pricing power
Sustained gross margins above 80% imply durable unit economics for the RNS System, providing a large margin buffer to fund R&D and commercial expansion. High margins improve operating leverage potential and reduce sensitivity to reimbursement pressure, supporting long-term profitability if volume scales.
Negative Factors
High leverage and thin equity cushion
Elevated leverage with a materially compressed equity base reduces financial flexibility and heightens refinancing or covenant risk. In a capital‑intensive adoption cycle this raises the probability of dilution or higher funding costs, constraining strategic investments and resilience to demand shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margins and pricing power
Sustained gross margins above 80% imply durable unit economics for the RNS System, providing a large margin buffer to fund R&D and commercial expansion. High margins improve operating leverage potential and reduce sensitivity to reimbursement pressure, supporting long-term profitability if volume scales.
Read all positive factors
NeuroPace (NPCE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$576.87M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)201.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth18.06%
EPS Growth21.86%
CountryUS
Employees184
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.65
Shares Outstanding34,093,746
10 Day Avg. Volume230,602
30 Day Avg. Volume201,761
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.81
Price to Book (P/B)26.55
Price to Sales (P/S)5.05
P/FCF Ratio-44.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-42.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.75Price Target Upside40.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$99.95M
NeuroPace Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NeuroPace, Inc. operates as a medical device company in the United States. It develops and sells RNS system, a brain-responsive neuromodulation system for treating medically refractory focal epilepsy by delivering personalized real-time treatment ...
How the Company Makes Money
NeuroPace primarily makes money by selling its RNS System for use in eligible epilepsy patients. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of implantable neurostimulation devices and related components used in the initial implant procedure, and (2) sale...
NeuroPace Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial and clinical momentum: double-digit RNS revenue growth (CFO reported ~20% YoY excluding DIXI), raised full-year guidance, improved adjusted EBITDA outlook, robust clinical data (NAUTILUS 18-month and 3-year focal outcomes), and tangible AI/product roadmap progress. Offsetting risks include the NAUTILUS primary endpoint nuance, IGE revenue timing and payer coverage uncertainty, seasonally lower cash, and ongoing need for reimbursement work. Overall, management presented disciplined investment and operating leverage alongside meaningful opportunities that outweigh near-term risks.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue and RNS System Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $22.1M (or $22.0M excluding DIXI), driven by RNS system revenue of $21.7M. Management highlighted underlying RNS momentum and the CFO reported excluding DIXI non-GAAP revenue of $22.0M, a 20.1% year-over-year increase versus $18.3M in Q1 2025; RNS system revenue grew ~19.5% year-over-year (from $18.2M to $21.7M).
Negative Updates
NAUTILUS Primary Endpoint Uncertainty
Analyst discussion noted the NAUTILUS trial's primary efficacy endpoint did not meet statistical significance (while multiple secondary and supportive analyses were favorable); management emphasized FDA is assessing the totality of evidence but the primary endpoint result introduces potential label and review risk and may affect timing/extent of commercial uptake for IGE.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue and RNS System Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $22.1M (or $22.0M excluding DIXI), driven by RNS system revenue of $21.7M. Management highlighted underlying RNS momentum and the CFO reported excluding DIXI non-GAAP revenue of $22.0M, a 20.1% year-over-year increase versus $18.3M in Q1 2025; RNS system revenue grew ~19.5% year-over-year (from $18.2M to $21.7M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NeuroPace raised full‑year 2026 revenue guidance to $99.0–$101.0 million (up from $98.0–$100.0M), driven by an expected 21%–23% underlying RNS system revenue growth (guidance excludes any IGE contribution), and now includes roughly $0.5M of service revenue (the $1M midpoint uplift was ~$0.5M from service visibility and ~$0.5M from core RNS). Q1 product revenue was $22.1M ($22.0M excluding DIXI) with RNS revenue of $21.7M, and the company expects full‑year adjusted gross margin of 81.5%–82.5%. Full‑year non‑GAAP operating expenses are guided to $90M–$92M (excluding about $10M of stock‑based comp), with S&M $46M–$48M, R&D ≈$27M, and G&A ≈$17M, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be a loss of $8.5M–$9.5M (improved from prior -$9M to -$10M); any IGE-driven revenue would be modeled only after regulatory approval and reimbursement visibility.NeuroPace Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 99.53M | 99.99M | 79.91M | 65.42M | 45.52M | 45.18M |
| Gross Profit | 77.93M | 77.22M | 59.09M | 48.12M | 32.49M | 33.44M |
| EBITDA | -14.88M | -14.39M | -16.57M | -22.83M | -36.57M | -28.37M |
| Net Income | -21.57M | -21.46M | -27.14M | -32.96M | -47.08M | -36.08M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 98.90M | 105.56M | 94.65M | 107.65M | 114.11M | 133.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 53.98M | 61.06M | 52.76M | 66.45M | 77.41M | 115.58M |
| Total Debt | 70.46M | 70.84M | 73.34M | 72.39M | 69.77M | 49.85M |
| Total Liabilities | 84.44M | 86.53M | 86.63M | 87.00M | 79.33M | 60.06M |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.45M | 19.03M | 8.01M | 20.65M | 34.78M | 73.50M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -9.84M | -11.34M | -18.25M | -19.87M | -37.47M | -24.96M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -9.42M | -11.01M | -17.95M | -19.70M | -36.87M | -24.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -412.00K | -332.00K | 8.99M | 23.03M | 23.80M | -85.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.67M | 19.60M | 4.33M | 8.13M | 490.00K | 102.53M |
NeuroPace Technical Analysis
Positive
14.09
Price Trends
15.48
Positive
15.44
Positive
13.67
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Positive
53.58
Neutral
75.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NPCE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.67, below the 50-day MA of 15.48, and above the 200-day MA of 13.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NPCE.
NeuroPace Risk Analysis
NeuroPace disclosed 80 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NeuroPace reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NeuroPace Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $561.65M | -83.60 | 9.70% | ― | 17.18% | 34.07% | |
68 Neutral | $380.43M | -78.10 | 0.51% | ― | 67.95% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $251.90M | -4.00 | -17.01% | ― | -14.05% | -70.35% | |
49 Neutral | $330.97M | -2.36 | -130.00% | ― | 71.91% | 14.73% | |
49 Neutral | $712.18M | -8.74 | -38.19% | ― | ― | ― | |
47 Neutral | $576.87M | -16.57 | -120.74% | ― | 18.06% | 21.86% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.