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Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)
NYSE:NOMD
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Nomad Foods (NOMD) AI Stock Analysis

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NOMD

Nomad Foods

(NYSE:NOMD)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▲(24.72% Upside)
Nomad Foods' overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong valuation, with an attractive P/E ratio and dividend yield. However, the score is tempered by a bearish technical outlook and cautious sentiment from the latest earnings call, which highlighted significant challenges such as lowered guidance and rising inflation. Financial performance remains stable, but the revenue decline poses a risk to future growth.
Positive Factors
Innovation and Renovation Initiatives
Doubling sales from innovation indicates a strong pipeline and adaptability to consumer trends, enhancing long-term growth prospects and market relevance.
Market Share Gains
Regaining market share in key regions highlights competitive strength and effective market strategies, supporting sustained revenue and brand positioning.
Strong Cash Generation
Robust cash flow growth enhances financial flexibility, allowing for strategic investments and shareholder returns, underpinning long-term stability.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
A significant revenue decline poses risks to growth and market competitiveness, potentially affecting future profitability and strategic initiatives.
Rising Inflationary Pressures
Increased inflationary pressures can erode profit margins and purchasing power, challenging cost management and pricing strategies in the medium term.
Lowered Full-Year Guidance
Repeated guidance reductions signal potential operational challenges and market uncertainties, affecting investor confidence and strategic planning.

Nomad Foods (NOMD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nomad Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNomad Foods (NOMD) is a prominent European frozen food company, specializing in the production and distribution of high-quality frozen meals and snacks. The company operates in the consumer packaged goods sector, with a diverse portfolio that includes brands such as Birds Eye, Findus, and Iglo. Nomad Foods focuses on providing convenient and nutritious frozen food options across various categories, including fish, vegetables, and ready meals, catering to the evolving preferences of health-conscious consumers.
How the Company Makes MoneyNomad Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its frozen food products to retail and food service channels. The company employs a multi-channel distribution model, supplying products to supermarkets, grocery stores, and restaurants across Europe. Key revenue streams include direct sales from their branded products, as well as private label offerings. The company's growth is supported by strategic partnerships with retailers, promotional campaigns to increase brand visibility, and ongoing investments in product innovation to meet consumer trends. Additionally, strong operational efficiencies in sourcing and manufacturing help to maintain profit margins.

Nomad Foods Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call highlighted some positive aspects, such as regained market share, strong innovation pipeline, and cost-cutting measures. However, these were overshadowed by significant challenges, including lowered guidance, adverse weather impacts, and rising inflation. The sentiment was cautious with a focus on future improvements.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Market Share Gains
Despite challenging conditions, Nomad Foods regained market share in volume, particularly in Western Europe, indicating strong competitive positioning.
Innovation and Renovation Initiatives
Nomad Foods reported that around 10% of sales were from innovation and renovation in 2024, and this is expected to nearly double. Initiatives include new products in chicken, fish, and snacking categories, with a focus on expansion in the frozen food sector.
SG&A Savings and Cost Competitiveness
The company achieved reductions in SG&A through targeted overhead expense cuts and synergies. This initiative supports their focus on cost competitiveness while maintaining pricing power.
Future Food Lab and Innovation Partnerships
Nomad Foods is exploring partnerships with startups through its Future Food Lab to drive innovation, particularly in food service and other new product areas.
Negative Updates
Lowered Full-Year Guidance
Nomad Foods lowered its full-year guidance for the second time, citing self-inflicted issues like optimistic ERP implementation and excess inventory, as well as external factors such as weather disruptions.
Impact of Weather on Sales
The hottest June on record in Western Europe negatively impacted sales, with market volume declines of 5-7% in key regions like France, U.K., and Belgium.
Rising Inflationary Pressures
Inflation assumptions increased from 2.5% to 4.5% throughout the year, driven by the hot weather and poor crop yields, impacting gross margins.
Weak Start to July Sales
Sales in July started weak, particularly in the U.K., continuing the negative trend seen in June.
Company Guidance
During the Nomad Foods Second Quarter 2025 Q&A session, CEO Stefan Descheemaeker provided guidance on the company's outlook, addressing recent challenges and future strategies. The company has adjusted its full-year guidance to reflect a range between 0% and -2% for organic sales growth in the second half, citing influences such as the hottest June on record in Western Europe and ongoing internal adjustments like ERP implementation issues and excess inventory. Descheemaeker highlighted increased innovation efforts, with the expectation that sales from innovation and renovation would nearly double from 10% in 2024. Additionally, Nomad Foods anticipates full-year inflation to be around 4.5%, up from earlier estimates of 2.5%, largely due to adverse weather impacting crops. Cost competitiveness remains a focus, with productivity improvements and supply chain optimization, including a facility closure in Sweden. CFO Ruben Baldew emphasized the company's commitment to pricing strategies and cost savings to manage these pressures, while maintaining flexibility in capital allocation between share buybacks, dividends, and potential M&A opportunities.

Nomad Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nomad Foods demonstrates strong operational efficiency with healthy margins and cash flow generation. However, the significant revenue decline in the TTM poses a risk to future growth. The balance sheet remains stable with manageable leverage, supporting long-term stability.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Nomad Foods shows a stable gross profit margin of around 29% over the TTM, with a slight decline in net profit margin to 6.89%. The company experienced a revenue decline of 20.2% in the TTM, which is a concern. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 12.63% and 15.91%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is stable at 0.82, suggesting manageable leverage. Return on equity is moderate at 8.04%, reflecting decent profitability. The equity ratio stands at 40.21%, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Free cash flow grew by 19.56% in the TTM, showcasing strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.38, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.83, indicating efficient cash conversion from earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.07B3.10B3.04B2.94B2.61B2.52B
Gross Profit892.00M917.80M858.70M815.30M744.30M762.50M
EBITDA488.50M505.10M480.50M492.20M369.80M429.80M
Net Income211.50M227.10M192.70M249.80M181.00M225.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.38B6.43B6.42B6.33B6.17B5.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments266.60M403.00M412.70M369.40M254.00M418.10M
Total Debt2.10B2.18B2.15B2.17B2.23B1.77B
Total Liabilities3.81B3.77B3.82B3.72B3.87B3.45B
Stockholders Equity2.56B2.66B2.59B2.61B2.30B2.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow366.80M355.10M348.40M224.70M227.10M398.30M
Operating Cash Flow444.30M435.40M430.80M303.80M306.30M457.00M
Investing Cash Flow-62.90M-64.40M-76.80M-78.70M-660.00M-171.40M
Financing Cash Flow-444.70M-366.40M-321.50M-108.10M214.40M-714.80M

Nomad Foods Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price13.23
Price Trends
50DMA
14.96
Negative
100DMA
16.12
Negative
200DMA
17.07
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.55
Negative
RSI
35.34
Neutral
STOCH
44.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOMD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.60, below the 50-day MA of 14.96, and below the 200-day MA of 17.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOMD.

Nomad Foods Risk Analysis

Nomad Foods disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nomad Foods reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nomad Foods Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$9.80B7.8833.10%2.06%63.27%
69
Neutral
$2.05B8.937.88%4.99%0.87%8.59%
67
Neutral
$9.53B15.9415.43%4.98%6.40%6.17%
67
Neutral
$9.21B10.889.53%7.30%-4.11%72.17%
63
Neutral
$13.64B18.089.33%4.67%0.65%-3.76%
50
Neutral
$11.58B-7.86-24.63%4.03%2.54%-293.39%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NOMD
Nomad Foods
13.23
-4.23
-24.23%
CPB
Campbell Soup
31.60
-13.66
-30.18%
CAG
Conagra Brands
19.18
-8.51
-30.73%
HRL
Hormel Foods
24.66
-5.29
-17.66%
SJM
JM Smucker
107.80
-4.92
-4.36%
PPC
Pilgrim's Pride
40.92
4.01
10.86%

Nomad Foods Corporate Events

Nomad Foods Unveils New Efficiency Program and Financial Targets at Barclays Conference
Sep 3, 2025

On September 3, 2025, Nomad Foods announced its participation in the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference, where it reiterated its 2025 guidance and unveiled a new efficiency program aimed at achieving €200 million in operational savings from 2026 to 2028. The company also set new medium-term financial targets, including a compound annual Adjusted EBITDA growth of 1-3% and a 15% increase in Free Cash Flow from 2026-2028. These initiatives are expected to enhance Nomad Foods’ market positioning by funding reinvestments, mitigating inflation, and supporting its growth goals. Additionally, the company plans to launch a new Masterbrand campaign in the UK and Ireland to promote its Birds Eye brand and introduce several new products across Europe.

Nomad Foods Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results Amid Weather Challenges
Aug 6, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Nomad Foods Limited announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, revealing a challenging period marked by a 0.8% decrease in revenue to €747 million and a 7.2% drop in adjusted EBITDA to €129 million. The company attributed these declines to record-setting warm weather in Western Europe, which affected consumer behavior and retailer strategies, causing volume declines in savory frozen categories. Despite these challenges, Nomad Foods improved its market share and retail sell-out growth, with plans to return to organic sales growth in the latter half of the year. Additionally, Carey Dorman was appointed as an independent member of the Board of Directors, bringing extensive experience from his role as Executive Vice President and CFO of Element Solutions Inc.

Nomad Foods Increases Quarterly Dividend by 13%
Jul 30, 2025

On July 30, 2025, Nomad Foods Limited announced a 13% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, now set at $0.17 per share. This decision reflects the company’s confidence in its long-term strategy and commitment to creating sustained value for shareholders. The dividend will be payable on August 26, 2025, to shareholders recorded by August 11, 2025. This move is likely to strengthen Nomad Foods’ position in the frozen food industry and reassure stakeholders of its financial health and strategic direction.

Nomad Foods Holds 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting
Jul 15, 2025

On July 10, 2025, Nomad Foods Limited held its annual meeting of shareholders where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. Shareholders elected ten directors for a one-year term and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year 2025. These decisions are pivotal for maintaining the company’s strategic direction and ensuring robust financial practices.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025