Nomad Foods (NOMD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.62B
• Dividend Yield: 3.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 988.39K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.17
• Revenue Growth: -0.24%
• EPS Growth: 26.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,864
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 153,402,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 788,664
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 988,392
• PEG Ratio: 0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $24.75
• Price Target Upside: 44.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.50 ▲(14.04%Upside)

Nomad Foods' overall stock score reflects its strong profitability and efficient cash flow management, tempered by challenges in revenue growth and high debt reliance. The technical analysis suggests potential short-term weaknesses, but the valuation remains attractive with a reasonable P/E ratio and robust dividend yield. The mixed earnings call highlights market pressures that could impact future performance.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Q4 volume/mix showed robust acceleration at +4.7%, the strongest since FY20, including benefits from innovation and new distribution.

Innovation and Market Expansion

A sharp ramp in product renovation and innovation along with early market share successes in 'Lift & Launch' distribution expansion provide material support for adjacent product introductions.

Market Position

NOMD has now delivered market share gains for the past two quarters and three consecutive quarters of volume growth.

Negative Factors

Consumer Demand

The consumer demand environment remains worse than before the inflation super-cycle, despite signs of slow improvement.

Guidance and Outlook

The weaker volume trends and higher inflation outlook led management to trim full-year guidance to 0%-2% organic revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth.

Inflation Impact

Food inflation has ticked up slightly and may require additional pricing to offset in 2025.

Nomad Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nomad Foods Limited manufactures, markets, and distributes frozen food products in the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, Austria, Norway, Spain, and rest of Europe. The company offers fish products, including fish fingers, coated fish, and natural fish; vegetables, such as peas and spinach; and poultry and meat products comprising nuggets, grills, and burgers. It also provides meals products that include ready to cook noodles, pasta, lasagna, pancakes, and other ready-made meals; ice-creams; and other products, such as soups, pizzas, bakery goods, and meat substitutes. The company sells its products to supermarkets and food retail chains directly or through distribution arrangements primarily under the Birds Eye, Iglo, Findus, Goodfella's, La Cocinera, Ledo, Frikom, San Marco, and Aunt Bessie's brands. Nomad Foods Limited is headquartered in Feltham, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Nomad Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its frozen food products to retail customers, including supermarkets and grocery stores. The company emphasizes brand recognition and product quality to maintain a strong presence in the market. Key revenue streams include the sale of branded frozen goods under its leading brands across various European markets. Additionally, Nomad Foods engages in strategic partnerships and marketing initiatives to enhance its brand visibility and expand its market share. The company's revenue is also influenced by factors such as consumer preferences, pricing strategies, and distribution efficiency within the highly competitive food industry.

Nomad Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nomad Foods has a strong profitability profile with solid EBITDA margins, although revenue growth has recently declined. The company has a moderate balance sheet with a notable reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks. Cash flow remains healthy, but there's been a decline in free cash flow compared to the previous year.

Income Statement

Nomad Foods exhibits strong profitability with consistent gross profit and EBIT margins over recent periods. The gross profit margin for the TTM is approximately 29.9%, and the net profit margin stands at 7.3%. However, the revenue growth rate shows a slight decline recently, indicating potential challenges in increasing sales. Despite this, the solid EBITDA margin of 16.4% suggests efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet demonstrates moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is about 0.82, suggesting a balanced capital structure, though slightly high for industry standards. Return on equity is solid at 8.6%, reflecting good profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the equity ratio is 40.8%, indicating a substantial reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Nomad Foods shows a healthy cash flow position with a free cash flow of approximately 306.8 million USD for the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.72, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow has declined compared to the previous year, suggesting some challenges in maintaining cash flow growth.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.08B	3.10B	3.04B	2.94B	2.61B	2.52B
	Gross Profit
918.50M	917.80M	858.70M	815.30M	744.30M	762.50M
	EBIT
388.80M	387.00M	340.40M	375.40M	342.70M	359.20M
	EBITDA
503.40M	505.10M	480.50M	492.20M	369.80M	429.80M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
225.30M	227.10M	192.70M	249.80M	181.00M	225.20M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
329.80M	403.00M	412.70M	369.40M	254.00M	418.10M
	Total Assets
6.40B	6.43B	6.42B	6.33B	6.17B	5.58B
	Total Debt
2.15B	2.18B	2.15B	2.17B	2.23B	1.77B
	Net Debt
1.82B	1.77B	1.74B	1.80B	1.97B	1.38B
	Total Liabilities
3.79B	3.77B	3.82B	3.72B	3.87B	3.45B
	Stockholders Equity
2.61B	2.66B	2.59B	2.61B	2.30B	2.13B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
306.80M	355.10M	348.40M	224.70M	227.10M	398.30M
	Operating Cash Flow
387.00M	435.40M	430.80M	303.80M	306.30M	457.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
-65.10M	-64.40M	-76.80M	-78.70M	-660.00M	-171.40M
	Financing Cash Flow
-389.40M	-366.40M	-321.50M	-108.10M	214.40M	-714.80M

Nomad Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOMD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.48, below the 50-day MA of 18.46, and below the 200-day MA of 17.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOMD.

Nomad Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SMPL	76 Outperform	$3.26B	22.54	8.40%	―	11.47%	2.59%
POST	73 Outperform	$6.25B	20.24	9.15%	―	1.48%	9.36%
CAG	67 Neutral	$10.30B	31.56	3.67%	6.49%	-3.15%	-65.38%
NOMD	66 Neutral	$2.62B	11.28	8.59%	3.98%	-0.24%	26.74%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$8.81B	14.92	4.67%	6.17%	3.60%	-2.89%
JJSF	58 Neutral	$2.24B	29.56	8.20%	2.71%	0.49%	-12.32%
KLG	52 Neutral	$1.34B	24.13	17.70%	4.24%	-3.13%	-51.41%