Nomad Foods Ltd. (NOMD)
NYSE:NOMD
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Nomad Foods
(NYSE:NOMD)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▲(6.49% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is anchored by moderately positive financial quality (strong cash conversion) but deteriorating recent performance (revenue drop, margin compression) and meaningful leverage. Technicals are notably weak with the stock in a clear downtrend, while valuation (low P/E, high yield) provides a meaningful offset. The earnings call adds mixed visibility: near-term sales decline guidance is a headwind, partially balanced by investment plans, category tailwinds, and buyback/insider-buying signals.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Nomad’s free cash flow has historically exceeded reported earnings (≈76% most recently, ≈82% in 2024), giving durable cash conversion that supports debt service, buybacks and investment. This cash-generation ability provides a multi‑quarter buffer while management executes restructuring and brand investments.
Negative Factors
Recent revenue decline
Nomad reported a clear revenue deterioration (2025 down ~2.2% y/y; Q4 also down), reflecting retailer negotiation impacts and volume weakness. Persistent top‑line decline undermines operating leverage, limits margin recovery and reduces visibility on when historically stable revenues will reaccelerate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Nomad’s free cash flow has historically exceeded reported earnings (≈76% most recently, ≈82% in 2024), giving durable cash conversion that supports debt service, buybacks and investment. This cash-generation ability provides a multi‑quarter buffer while management executes restructuring and brand investments.
Read all positive factors
Nomad Foods (NOMD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.40B
Dividend Yield5.4%
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7
Beta (1Y)0.08
Revenue Growth1.44%
EPS Growth8.29%
CountryUS
Employees6,864
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.50
Shares Outstanding142,086,090
10 Day Avg. Volume926,167
30 Day Avg. Volume1,474,752
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.53
P/FCF Ratio6.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.13
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.40Price Target Upside35.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.91B
Nomad Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nomad Foods Limited manufactures, markets, and distributes frozen food products in the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, Austria, Norway, Spain, and rest of Europe. The company offers fish products, including fish fingers, coated fis...
How the Company Makes Money
Nomad Foods makes money primarily by selling branded frozen food products to retailers and other grocery distribution customers in Europe. Revenue is generated when the company ships frozen products (e.g., vegetables, fish, poultry, prepared meals...
Nomad Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: near-term headwinds dominate the narrative with a negative net sales guidance driven largely by fish cost inflation and retailer negotiation disruption, but several offsetting positives exist — category-level growth, planned investments in branding and point of sale, management insider buying and buyback capacity, and an expressed expectation to return to growth in 2027–2028. Overall, the company positions 2026 as a transition year with structural improvements underway, while warning of temporary disruptions to top-line performance.Positive Updates
Category Growth Outperforming Food Market
Frozen category delivered robust growth for retailers last year, up 2.4% across Nomad's footprint; selected markets showing stronger growth (Italy +3.0%, Germany +4.5%), indicating healthy category tailwinds versus overall food.
Negative Updates
Negative Net Sales Guidance for 2026 (Transition Year)
Company is guiding to a negative net sales decline for fiscal 2026 (no specific percentage disclosed), attributing the guidance to negotiation delays/disruption with retailers, fish cost inflation and change-related disruption as they enact structural initiatives.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Category Growth Outperforming Food Market
Frozen category delivered robust growth for retailers last year, up 2.4% across Nomad's footprint; selected markets showing stronger growth (Italy +3.0%, Germany +4.5%), indicating healthy category tailwinds versus overall food.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nomad is guiding to a net‑sales decline for 2026 (no percent provided), driven mainly by ongoing annual retailer price negotiations (most expected to conclude in Q1), pricing actions to offset fish cost inflation (with pricing expected to be taken on Fish and a competitor price‑lag), and short‑term volume pressure even as price and mix (notably continued potatoes growth) contribute; management calls 2026 a transition year with significant investment planned in point‑of‑sale and packaging, expects frozen category tailwinds (category grew 2.4% across its footprint last year — Italy +3%, Germany +4.5%), anticipates a return to growth in 2027–2028, will present multiyear targets at Analyst Day, continues to report adjusted figures (removing share‑based pay, exceptional items and FX), and retains an appetite for share repurchases (management will make substantial personal purchases) while balancing buybacks against leverage and liquidity and remaining open to future M&A.Nomad Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.03B | 3.10B | 3.04B | 2.94B | 2.61B |
| Gross Profit | 823.00M | 917.80M | 858.70M | 815.30M | 744.30M |
| EBITDA | 254.70M | 505.10M | 480.50M | 492.20M | 369.80M |
| Net Income | 136.70M | 227.10M | 192.70M | 249.80M | 181.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.33B | 6.43B | 6.42B | 6.33B | 6.17B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 329.30M | 403.00M | 412.70M | 369.40M | 254.00M |
| Total Debt | 2.29B | 2.18B | 2.15B | 2.17B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.84B | 3.77B | 3.82B | 3.72B | 3.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.50B | 2.66B | 2.59B | 2.61B | 2.30B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 252.20M | 355.10M | 348.40M | 224.70M | 227.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 330.70M | 435.40M | 430.80M | 303.80M | 306.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -74.60M | -64.40M | -76.80M | -78.70M | -660.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -332.10M | -366.40M | -321.50M | -108.10M | 214.40M |
Nomad Foods Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.86
Price Trends
11.03
Negative
11.54
Negative
12.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Negative
42.11
Neutral
78.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOMD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.76, below the 50-day MA of 11.03, and below the 200-day MA of 12.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NOMD.
Nomad Foods Risk Analysis
Nomad Foods disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nomad Foods reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nomad Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $8.42B | 8.73 | 30.72% | ― | 1.81% | 24.67% | |
68 Neutral | $11.48B | 18.81 | 6.13% | 4.82% | 1.55% | -40.81% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $1.40B | 11.70 | 5.35% | 5.40% | 1.44% | 8.29% | |
61 Neutral | $9.70B | -3.86 | -21.55% | 4.45% | -0.66% | -326.55% | |
54 Neutral | $6.09B | 14.14 | 13.98% | 5.64% | 2.71% | 4.90% | |
54 Neutral | $7.26B | 11.30 | -0.51% | 7.87% | -5.82% | -119.70% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
NOMD
Nomad Foods
9.86
-8.65
-46.73%
CPB
Campbell Soup
20.43
-16.30
-44.37%
CAG
Conagra Brands
15.18
-9.18
-37.68%
HRL
Hormel Foods
20.87
-8.64
-29.28%
SJM
JM Smucker
90.91
-22.42
-19.78%
PPC
Pilgrim's Pride
35.44
-14.83
-29.50%
Nomad Foods Corporate Events
Nomad Foods Posts Lower 2025 Revenue, Flags 2026 as Transition Year Amid Restructuring Push
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Nomad Foods reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, delivering earnings broadly in line with guidance despite a challenging backdrop of declining organic revenue and compressed margins. Fourth-quarter reported...
Nomad Foods Declares $0.17 Quarterly Dividend Payable February 26, 2026
Jan 30, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Nomad Foods announced that its board of directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per share on its ordinary shares, reinforcing its ongoing capital return to shareholders. The dividend is scheduled to be paid o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.