Nomad Foods (NOMD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.61B
• Dividend Yield: 5.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.03
• Revenue Growth: 1.44%
• EPS Growth: 8.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,864
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 146,646,120
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,898,778
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,605,732
• PEG Ratio: -0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.53
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.04
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.49
• 1Y Price Target: $15.25
• Price Target Upside: 39.02% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.08B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(4.83% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is anchored by moderately positive financial quality (strong cash conversion) but deteriorating recent performance (revenue drop, margin compression) and meaningful leverage. Technicals are notably weak with the stock in a clear downtrend, while valuation (low P/E, high yield) provides a meaningful offset. The earnings call adds mixed visibility: near-term sales decline guidance is a headwind, partially balanced by investment plans, category tailwinds, and buyback/insider-buying signals.

Positive Factors

Cash generation / FCF conversion

Nomad's strong free cash flow and high cash conversion (FCF ~76% of net income, ~82% in 2024) provide durable internal funding for debt service, dividends and buybacks. This cash-generation profile supports strategic flexibility and capital returns even if earnings are uneven over the medium term.

Leading brands and category tailwinds

Owning recognized brands (Birds Eye, Findus, Iglo) in a growing frozen category (frozen +2.4% across footprint) gives Nomad durable shelf presence, consumer pull and pricing leverage. Brand equity combined with category growth supports sustained demand and helps defend margins versus generic/private-label competition.

Management alignment and strategic investment

Management's planned substantial insider purchases and ongoing buyback appetite signal alignment and confidence in long-term prospects. Coupled with planned investments in point-of-sale, packaging and organizational streamlining, this supports improved commercial execution and durable margin recovery if initiatives succeed.

Negative Factors

Meaningful leverage

Debt roughly equal to equity reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises sensitivity to earnings volatility. If profitability or cash flow remain weak, the higher leverage increases refinancing and covenant risk, limits M&A or buybacks, and constrains the company's ability to absorb shocks over the medium term.

Revenue decline and margin compression

A recent sharp revenue drop and material net margin compression have reduced returns on capital and the company's earnings cushion. Sustained lower margins will strain free cash flow generation, hinder reinvestment capacity, and make Nomad more exposed to input cost swings and retail price pressure over multiple quarters.

2026 negative sales guidance & input cost/retailer risk

Management's 2026 net-sales decline guidance—driven by retailer negotiation delays and fish cost inflation—implies structural near-term demand and pricing risk. Price takings on fish may suppress volumes, and retailer dynamics create uncertainty that could prolong revenue and margin pressure during the transition period.

Nomad Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nomad Foods Limited manufactures, markets, and distributes frozen food products in the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, Austria, Norway, Spain, and rest of Europe. The company offers fish products, including fish fingers, coated fish, and natural fish; vegetables, such as peas and spinach; and poultry and meat products comprising nuggets, grills, and burgers. It also provides meals products that include ready to cook noodles, pasta, lasagna, pancakes, and other ready-made meals; ice-creams; and other products, such as soups, pizzas, bakery goods, and meat substitutes. The company sells its products to supermarkets and food retail chains directly or through distribution arrangements primarily under the Birds Eye, Iglo, Findus, Goodfella's, La Cocinera, Ledo, Frikom, San Marco, and Aunt Bessie's brands. Nomad Foods Limited is headquartered in Feltham, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Nomad Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its frozen food products across various retail channels, including supermarkets and convenience stores. The company's revenue model is built on the production and distribution of branded frozen foods, which allows it to capitalize on consumer trends towards convenience and frozen meal solutions. Key revenue streams include direct sales from retail partners, brand licensing, and promotional partnerships. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include strong brand recognition, strategic acquisitions of complementary brands, and an expanding product portfolio that aligns with consumer demand for healthier and more convenient meal options.

Nomad Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash generation is a relative strength (solid free cash flow and strong cash conversion), but the latest period shows clear pressure: a sharp revenue decline versus 2024, materially compressed net margins, and stepped-down returns on equity. Leverage is meaningful (debt close to equity), increasing sensitivity if earnings softness persists.

Income Statement

Revenue has been broadly stable over the last several years, but the latest year shows a sharp decline versus 2024, raising near-term demand/price-mix risk. Profitability remains positive with mid-teens operating profitability, yet net profitability has compressed materially (down to ~4.5% most recently from ~7.3% in 2024), indicating higher costs, interest, taxes, or other below-the-line pressure. Overall: resilient operating profile for a packaged foods business, but weakening bottom-line trend and the latest revenue drop pull the score down.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful, with debt running close to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.92 most recently), which reduces flexibility if earnings soften. Equity is solid in absolute terms and has generally grown versus 2020, but it has declined from the 2024 level while debt has moved higher, pointing to a modest deterioration in balance sheet mix. Returns on shareholder capital are positive but have stepped down meaningfully in the latest year (~5.5% most recently vs. ~8.5% in 2024), consistent with the weaker earnings trend.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: free cash flow remains solid and consistently exceeds reported earnings in recent periods (free cash flow running at ~76% of net income most recently and ~82% in 2024), supporting debt service and capital returns. That said, both operating and free cash flow declined in the latest year, and free cash flow growth turned sharply negative, signaling potential normalization after a stronger prior year and reduced cushion if profitability remains under pressure. Overall: healthy cash conversion, but weakening trajectory in the most recent period.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.03B	3.10B	3.04B	2.94B	2.61B
Gross Profit	823.00M	917.80M	858.70M	815.30M	744.30M
EBITDA	254.70M	505.10M	480.50M	492.20M	369.80M
Net Income	136.70M	227.10M	192.70M	249.80M	181.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.33B	6.43B	6.42B	6.33B	6.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	324.80M	403.00M	412.70M	369.40M	254.00M
Total Debt	2.29B	2.18B	2.15B	2.17B	2.23B
Total Liabilities	3.84B	3.77B	3.82B	3.72B	3.87B
Stockholders Equity	2.50B	2.66B	2.59B	2.61B	2.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	252.20M	355.10M	348.40M	224.70M	227.10M
Operating Cash Flow	330.70M	435.40M	430.80M	303.80M	306.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-74.60M	-64.40M	-76.80M	-78.70M	-660.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-332.10M	-366.40M	-321.50M	-108.10M	214.40M

Nomad Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOMD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.57, below the 50-day MA of 12.27, and below the 200-day MA of 13.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.60 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOMD.

Nomad Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPC	74 Outperform	$10.25B	9.51	27.33%	―	1.81%	24.67%
HRL	68 Neutral	$14.08B	28.81	6.12%	4.82%	1.55%	-40.81%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
NOMD	62 Neutral	$1.61B	10.66	5.41%	5.40%	1.44%	8.29%
SJM	61 Neutral	$12.37B	―	-20.68%	4.45%	-0.66%	-326.55%
CPB	60 Neutral	$8.03B	13.94	14.82%	5.64%	2.71%	4.90%
CAG	58 Neutral	$9.21B	-93.54	-1.16%	7.87%	-5.82%	-119.70%

Nomad Foods Corporate Events

Nomad Foods Posts Lower 2025 Revenue, Flags 2026 as Transition Year Amid Restructuring Push

On February 26, 2026, Nomad Foods reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, delivering earnings broadly in line with guidance despite a challenging backdrop of declining organic revenue and compressed margins. Fourth-quarter reported revenue fell 2.6% to €773 million, while adjusted EPS rose 2.4% to €0.43, helped by lower operating costs and a reduced share count, although refinancing-related losses pushed reported EPS to a €0.07 loss per share.

For 2025, revenue declined 2.2% to €3.0 billion and adjusted EPS slipped 7% to €1.66 as supply chain inflation weighed on gross margin, yet the group still generated €331 million in operating cash flow and returned €287 million to shareholders, up 38% year-on-year. New CEO Dominic Brisby and the board framed 2026 as a transition year, guiding to further declines in organic revenue and adjusted earnings as Nomad pursues organizational streamlining, talent changes and productivity initiatives aimed at unlocking longer-term value and improving its competitive position in Europe’s frozen food market.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOMD) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomad Foods stock, see the NOMD Stock Forecast page.

Nomad Foods Declares $0.17 Quarterly Dividend Payable February 26, 2026

On January 30, 2026, Nomad Foods announced that its board of directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per share on its ordinary shares, reinforcing its ongoing capital return to shareholders. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on February 26, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 11, 2026, underscoring the company’s continued commitment to shareholder remuneration and offering income-focused investors clearer visibility on near‑term returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOMD) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomad Foods stock, see the NOMD Stock Forecast page.