Nomad Foods (NOMD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.31B
• Dividend Yield: 4.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.15
• Revenue Growth: 0.87%
• EPS Growth: 8.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,864
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 61
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.47
• Shares Outstanding: 153,402,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,350,108
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,024,446
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.32
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.72
• 1Y Price Target: $19.25
• Price Target Upside: 27.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.50 ▲(9.63% Upside)

Nomad Foods' overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong valuation, with an attractive P/E ratio and dividend yield. However, the score is tempered by a bearish technical outlook and cautious sentiment from the latest earnings call, which highlighted significant challenges such as lowered guidance and rising inflation. Financial performance remains stable, but the revenue decline poses a risk to future growth.

Positive Factors

Cost Savings and Efficiency

NOMD missed Q2 topline but beat on adj. EBITDA / EPS, as weather-driven volume declines were offset by cost savings initiatives.

Innovation and Renovation

Innovation and renovation initiatives are expected to contribute significantly to NOMD's growth, broadening its market exposure.

Market Expansion and Share Gains

'Lift & Launch' delivers strong initial showing, reinforcing optimism for volume and mix accretion, with significant share gains in frozen food categories.

Negative Factors

Consumer Demand Environment

The consumer demand environment remains worse than before the inflation super-cycle, despite signs of slow improvement.

Inflation and Economic Concerns

With weather impacts persisting and inflationary pressures building, management cut full-year guidance and widened the range to reflect ongoing volatility.

Revenue and Earnings Guidance

Reductions to FY25E guidance are disappointing for sales and EBITDA due to weather and larger input costs.

Nomad Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nomad Foods Limited manufactures, markets, and distributes frozen food products in the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, Austria, Norway, Spain, and rest of Europe. The company offers fish products, including fish fingers, coated fish, and natural fish; vegetables, such as peas and spinach; and poultry and meat products comprising nuggets, grills, and burgers. It also provides meals products that include ready to cook noodles, pasta, lasagna, pancakes, and other ready-made meals; ice-creams; and other products, such as soups, pizzas, bakery goods, and meat substitutes. The company sells its products to supermarkets and food retail chains directly or through distribution arrangements primarily under the Birds Eye, Iglo, Findus, Goodfella's, La Cocinera, Ledo, Frikom, San Marco, and Aunt Bessie's brands. Nomad Foods Limited is headquartered in Feltham, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Nomad Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its frozen food products to retail and food service channels. The company employs a multi-channel distribution model, supplying products to supermarkets, grocery stores, and restaurants across Europe. Key revenue streams include direct sales from their branded products, as well as private label offerings. The company's growth is supported by strategic partnerships with retailers, promotional campaigns to increase brand visibility, and ongoing investments in product innovation to meet consumer trends. Additionally, strong operational efficiencies in sourcing and manufacturing help to maintain profit margins.

Nomad Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nomad Foods shows strong profitability and efficient cash flow management. However, challenges include declining revenue growth and reliance on debt, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Income Statement

Nomad Foods exhibits strong profitability with consistent gross profit and EBIT margins over recent periods. The gross profit margin for the TTM is approximately 29.9%, and the net profit margin stands at 7.3%. However, the revenue growth rate shows a slight decline recently, indicating potential challenges in increasing sales. Despite this, the solid EBITDA margin of 16.4% suggests efficient operational management.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet demonstrates moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is about 0.82, suggesting a balanced capital structure, though slightly high for industry standards. Return on equity is solid at 8.6%, reflecting good profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the equity ratio is 40.8%, indicating a substantial reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Nomad Foods shows a healthy cash flow position with a free cash flow of approximately 306.8 million USD for the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.72, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow has declined compared to the previous year, suggesting some challenges in maintaining cash flow growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.07B	3.10B	3.04B	2.94B	2.61B	2.52B
Gross Profit	892.00M	917.80M	858.70M	815.30M	744.30M	762.50M
EBITDA	488.50M	505.10M	480.50M	492.20M	369.80M	429.80M
Net Income	211.50M	227.10M	192.70M	249.80M	181.00M	225.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.38B	6.43B	6.42B	6.33B	6.17B	5.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	266.60M	403.00M	412.70M	369.40M	254.00M	418.10M
Total Debt	2.10B	2.18B	2.15B	2.17B	2.23B	1.77B
Total Liabilities	3.81B	3.77B	3.82B	3.72B	3.87B	3.45B
Stockholders Equity	2.56B	2.66B	2.59B	2.61B	2.30B	2.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	366.80M	355.10M	348.40M	224.70M	227.10M	398.30M
Operating Cash Flow	444.30M	435.40M	430.80M	303.80M	306.30M	457.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-62.90M	-64.40M	-76.80M	-78.70M	-660.00M	-171.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-444.70M	-366.40M	-321.50M	-108.10M	214.40M	-714.80M

Nomad Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOMD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.09, below the 50-day MA of 16.71, and below the 200-day MA of 17.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOMD.

Nomad Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
POST	77 Outperform	$5.97B	18.94	9.23%	―	0.80%	10.43%
CAG	72 Outperform	$9.20B	8.02	13.27%	7.27%	-3.64%	231.77%
SMPL	71 Outperform	$2.89B	20.17	8.22%	―	14.22%	-1.81%
NOMD	69 Neutral	$2.31B	10.22	7.88%	4.39%	0.87%	8.59%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.95B	14.50	-4.08%	3.12%	2.72%	-11.24%
JJSF	61 Neutral	$2.22B	26.63	8.79%	2.78%	0.50%	-4.46%
KLG	60 Neutral	$1.98B	54.98	10.87%	2.83%	-4.30%	-69.47%