Nomad Foods (NOMD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.42B
• Dividend Yield: 5.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.85M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.07
• Revenue Growth: 1.44%
• EPS Growth: 8.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,864
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 142,086,090
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,152,981
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,851,556
• PEG Ratio: -0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.53
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.91
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.19
• 1Y Price Target: $14.40
• Price Target Upside: 44.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.48
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.91B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(5.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is anchored by moderately positive financial quality (strong cash conversion) but deteriorating recent performance (revenue drop, margin compression) and meaningful leverage. Technicals are notably weak with the stock in a clear downtrend, while valuation (low P/E, high yield) provides a meaningful offset. The earnings call adds mixed visibility: near-term sales decline guidance is a headwind, partially balanced by investment plans, category tailwinds, and buyback/insider-buying signals.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow conversion

Nomad’s free cash flow has historically exceeded reported earnings, supporting debt servicing, dividends and buybacks. That durable cash conversion provides financial flexibility to fund brand investments and M&A or sustain shareholder returns even through a multi-quarter recovery period.

Favorable frozen-category demand

Category-level growth in frozen foods across key markets creates a structural tailwind for Nomad’s branded portfolio. Sustained category momentum supports pricing power and shelf demand, improving the company's ability to regain volumes as execution and retailer negotiations normalize over the 2–3 year horizon.

Management alignment and active capital allocation

Insider buying plus an active buyback program signal management confidence and alignment with shareholders. Combined with explicit investment plans for point-of-sale and packaging, this indicates disciplined capital allocation prioritized on durable brand differentiation and long-term margin recovery.

Negative Factors

Meaningful leverage

Debt near parity with equity limits financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to profit dips. If operating performance remains weak, interest and covenant pressures could constrain investments, buybacks or M&A, making recovery plans more dependent on near-term cash generation and cost reductions.

Revenue decline and margin compression

A falling top line and compressed net margins reduce retained cash and return on capital, undermining the company’s ability to fund growth initiatives organically. Persistently weaker margins would slow deleveraging and limit reinvestment in marketing or innovation needed to defend pricing long-term.

Retail negotiation disruption & fish input inflation

Ongoing retailer price negotiations and concentrated fish-cost inflation force price actions and risk volume losses. These structural customer and input pressures may require sustained promotional spend and execution upgrades to protect shelf space, pressuring margins and growth for multiple quarters.

Nomad Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nomad Foods Limited manufactures, markets, and distributes frozen food products in the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, Austria, Norway, Spain, and rest of Europe. The company offers fish products, including fish fingers, coated fish, and natural fish; vegetables, such as peas and spinach; and poultry and meat products comprising nuggets, grills, and burgers. It also provides meals products that include ready to cook noodles, pasta, lasagna, pancakes, and other ready-made meals; ice-creams; and other products, such as soups, pizzas, bakery goods, and meat substitutes. The company sells its products to supermarkets and food retail chains directly or through distribution arrangements primarily under the Birds Eye, Iglo, Findus, Goodfella's, La Cocinera, Ledo, Frikom, San Marco, and Aunt Bessie's brands. Nomad Foods Limited is headquartered in Feltham, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Nomad Foods makes money primarily by selling branded frozen food products to retailers and other grocery distribution customers in Europe. Revenue is generated when the company ships frozen products (e.g., vegetables, fish, poultry, prepared meals, and ice cream) under its brand portfolio and recognizes sales based on contracted pricing, volumes, and trade terms with customers. The company’s key revenue streams are (1) core branded frozen food sales across its product categories and geographies, and (2) the expansion or optimization of its brand portfolio and product mix (e.g., innovation in prepared meals or value-added frozen items) to drive pricing and volume. Earnings are influenced by factors typical to branded packaged foods, including consumer demand, promotional activity and trade spending with retailers, input and commodity costs (ingredients, packaging, energy), manufacturing and logistics efficiency, and distribution reach within European retail networks. Specific partnership details beyond standard retail/customer relationships are null.

Nomad Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash generation is a relative strength (solid free cash flow and strong cash conversion), but the latest period shows clear pressure: a sharp revenue decline versus 2024, materially compressed net margins, and stepped-down returns on equity. Leverage is meaningful (debt close to equity), increasing sensitivity if earnings softness persists.

Income Statement

Revenue has been broadly stable over the last several years, but the latest year shows a sharp decline versus 2024, raising near-term demand/price-mix risk. Profitability remains positive with mid-teens operating profitability, yet net profitability has compressed materially (down to ~4.5% most recently from ~7.3% in 2024), indicating higher costs, interest, taxes, or other below-the-line pressure. Overall: resilient operating profile for a packaged foods business, but weakening bottom-line trend and the latest revenue drop pull the score down.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful, with debt running close to equity (debt-to-equity ~0.92 most recently), which reduces flexibility if earnings soften. Equity is solid in absolute terms and has generally grown versus 2020, but it has declined from the 2024 level while debt has moved higher, pointing to a modest deterioration in balance sheet mix. Returns on shareholder capital are positive but have stepped down meaningfully in the latest year (~5.5% most recently vs. ~8.5% in 2024), consistent with the weaker earnings trend.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: free cash flow remains solid and consistently exceeds reported earnings in recent periods (free cash flow running at ~76% of net income most recently and ~82% in 2024), supporting debt service and capital returns. That said, both operating and free cash flow declined in the latest year, and free cash flow growth turned sharply negative, signaling potential normalization after a stronger prior year and reduced cushion if profitability remains under pressure. Overall: healthy cash conversion, but weakening trajectory in the most recent period.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.03B	3.10B	3.04B	2.94B	2.61B
Gross Profit	823.00M	917.80M	858.70M	815.30M	744.30M
EBITDA	254.70M	505.10M	480.50M	492.20M	369.80M
Net Income	136.70M	227.10M	192.70M	249.80M	181.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.33B	6.43B	6.42B	6.33B	6.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	329.30M	403.00M	412.70M	369.40M	254.00M
Total Debt	2.29B	2.18B	2.15B	2.17B	2.23B
Total Liabilities	3.84B	3.77B	3.82B	3.72B	3.87B
Stockholders Equity	2.50B	2.66B	2.59B	2.61B	2.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	252.20M	355.10M	348.40M	224.70M	227.10M
Operating Cash Flow	330.70M	435.40M	430.80M	303.80M	306.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-74.60M	-64.40M	-76.80M	-78.70M	-660.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-332.10M	-366.40M	-321.50M	-108.10M	214.40M

Nomad Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NOMD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.05, below the 50-day MA of 11.73, and below the 200-day MA of 13.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NOMD.

Nomad Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPC	74 Outperform	$8.87B	8.73	30.72%	―	1.81%	24.67%
HRL	68 Neutral	$12.61B	18.81	6.13%	4.82%	1.55%	-40.81%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
NOMD	62 Neutral	$1.42B	11.70	5.35%	5.40%	1.44%	8.29%
SJM	61 Neutral	$10.95B	-3.86	-21.55%	4.45%	-0.66%	-326.55%
CAG	58 Neutral	$7.74B	-3.16	-1.13%	7.87%	-5.82%	-119.70%
CPB	54 Neutral	$6.43B	14.14	13.98%	5.64%	2.71%	4.90%

Nomad Foods Corporate Events

Nomad Foods Posts Lower 2025 Revenue, Flags 2026 as Transition Year Amid Restructuring Push

On February 26, 2026, Nomad Foods reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, delivering earnings broadly in line with guidance despite a challenging backdrop of declining organic revenue and compressed margins. Fourth-quarter reported revenue fell 2.6% to €773 million, while adjusted EPS rose 2.4% to €0.43, helped by lower operating costs and a reduced share count, although refinancing-related losses pushed reported EPS to a €0.07 loss per share.

For 2025, revenue declined 2.2% to €3.0 billion and adjusted EPS slipped 7% to €1.66 as supply chain inflation weighed on gross margin, yet the group still generated €331 million in operating cash flow and returned €287 million to shareholders, up 38% year-on-year. New CEO Dominic Brisby and the board framed 2026 as a transition year, guiding to further declines in organic revenue and adjusted earnings as Nomad pursues organizational streamlining, talent changes and productivity initiatives aimed at unlocking longer-term value and improving its competitive position in Europe’s frozen food market.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOMD) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomad Foods stock, see the NOMD Stock Forecast page.

Nomad Foods Declares $0.17 Quarterly Dividend Payable February 26, 2026

On January 30, 2026, Nomad Foods announced that its board of directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per share on its ordinary shares, reinforcing its ongoing capital return to shareholders. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on February 26, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 11, 2026, underscoring the company’s continued commitment to shareholder remuneration and offering income-focused investors clearer visibility on near‑term returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (NOMD) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nomad Foods stock, see the NOMD Stock Forecast page.