NI Holdings (NODK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $280.65M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.46K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 110.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.29
• Revenue Growth: -17.81%
• EPS Growth: 38.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 202
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): -0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 20,605,747
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,041
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,461
• PEG Ratio: 0.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.01
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.40
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 49.97
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▼(-2.03% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weakened cash generation (negative TTM operating and free cash flow) and very thin profitability despite a return to positive net income. Technical signals are also soft with negative MACD and the stock trading below key moving averages. A strong, low-leverage balance sheet provides some support, but the high P/E and the CEO separation event add risk.

Positive Factors

Strong Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with no leverage provides financial stability and flexibility, allowing the company to navigate economic uncertainties effectively.

Stock Repurchase Plan

The stock repurchase plan reflects management's confidence in the business and is a strategy to enhance shareholder value over the long term.

Risk Management Strategies

Strong risk management and cost control measures enhance profitability and ensure long-term sustainability by reducing potential liabilities.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Significant revenue decline indicates challenges in market demand or competitive positioning, threatening long-term growth and profitability.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow impacts the company's ability to fund operations and invest in growth opportunities, posing a risk to financial health.

Declining Equity

Decreasing equity levels suggest weakening financial stability, potentially limiting the company's capacity to absorb losses or invest in growth.

NI Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NI Holdings, Inc. underwrites property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company's products include private passenger auto, non-standard automobile, homeowners, farm owners, crop hail and multi-peril crop, and liability insurance policies. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Fargo, North Dakota. NI Holdings, Inc. is a subsidiary of Nodak Mutual Group, Inc.

How the Company Makes Money

NI Holdings generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance policies, where it earns premiums from policyholders. The company’s key revenue streams include direct premiums written from both personal and commercial lines of insurance. Additionally, NI Holdings may earn investment income from its reserves, which are invested in various financial instruments. Significant partnerships with independent agents and brokers enhance the company's distribution capabilities, allowing it to reach a broader customer base. Furthermore, effective risk management strategies and cost controls contribute to the company's profitability by minimizing claims and optimizing operational efficiency.

NI Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: profitability has turned positive in TTM ($2.6M net income), but margins remain very thin (TTM net margin ~0.5%, EBIT margin ~0.9%) and revenue is down ~4%. The balance sheet is a clear strength with near-zero debt and sizable equity (~$244M), but cash flow quality is a key concern as operating cash flow (-$6.8M) and free cash flow (-$7.2M) turned negative in TTM.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved materially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with a return to positive net income ($2.6M) after losses in 2023–2024, but earnings power remains thin (TTM net margin ~0.5% and EBIT margin ~0.9%). Revenue has also softened in TTM (down ~4%) following growth in 2023–2024, pointing to a less favorable near-term top-line trajectory. Longer-term results show meaningful volatility (very strong profitability in 2020 vs. deep losses in 2022), which limits the score despite the recent turnaround.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively positioned with essentially no debt across the periods (debt-to-equity consistently near zero) and a sizable equity base (~$244M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). Assets are stable (roughly $544M TTM), which supports financial flexibility. The key weakness is that shareholder returns have been modest recently (TTM return on equity ~0.6%) after negative returns in 2022–2024, suggesting the company is not yet converting its balance sheet strength into strong profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with operating cash flow turning negative (-$6.8M) and free cash flow also negative (-$7.2M), a notable reversal from solid positive cash flow in 2023–2024. Free cash flow growth is deeply negative (down ~137%), indicating deterioration in cash conversion and/or working capital dynamics. A positive offset is that prior years show the business can produce strong cash flow (2023–2024), but the latest TTM cash burn raises near-term quality-of-earnings and funding-risk questions.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	297.97M	325.20M	304.02M	267.78M	323.97M	306.36M
Gross Profit	39.62M	46.48M	49.87M	-27.57M	43.02M	86.41M
EBITDA	5.08M	10.83M	21.27M	-52.22M	12.47M	58.75M
Net Income	2.59M	-6.06M	-5.48M	-53.10M	8.42M	40.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	543.82M	526.54M	615.68M	614.23M	651.78M	617.60M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	24.65M	191.97M	330.44M	175.04M	435.27M	421.49M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	2.06M	1.84M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	300.01M	281.91M	365.28M	361.02M	304.37M	268.73M
Stockholders Equity	243.80M	244.63M	247.64M	250.98M	343.20M	344.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-7.22M	37.52M	25.00M	-31.55M	28.47M	50.47M
Operating Cash Flow	-6.79M	38.51M	25.97M	-30.39M	29.17M	51.01M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.25M	-4.54M	-8.81M	25.05M	-48.15M	200.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-1.42M	-3.64M	-7.47M	-18.28M	-11.47M	-12.27M

NI Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.27
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NODK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.34, below the 50-day MA of 13.52, and above the 200-day MA of 13.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NODK.

NI Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GBLI	73 Outperform	$410.09M	14.84	4.01%	5.01%	-0.04%	-33.45%
DGICA	69 Neutral	$672.45M	7.69	15.10%	3.51%	0.93%	224.95%
KINS	69 Neutral	$218.58M	7.02	37.59%	0.57%	39.32%	61.45%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ACIC	65 Neutral	$538.86M	6.48	29.35%	―	16.34%	-1.26%
NODK	47 Neutral	$280.65M	110.38	1.07%	―	-17.81%	38.09%

NI Holdings Corporate Events

NI Holdings Finalizes CEO Separation Agreement

On October 10, 2025, NI Holdings, Inc. terminated Seth C. Daggett’s employment as President and CEO without cause. Subsequently, on October 29, 2025, the company finalized a Separation Agreement with Mr. Daggett, granting him a severance payment of $2,559,947 and an additional amount for health coverage costs over 24 months. This agreement is contingent upon Mr. Daggett’s release of claims against the company and includes a seven-day revocation period post-signing.

The most recent analyst rating on (NODK) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NI Holdings stock, see the NODK Stock Forecast page.