Global Indemnity (GBLI)
NASDAQ:GBLI
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Global Indemnity
(NASDAQ:GBLI)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▼(-0.99% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by deteriorated TTM cash flow (negative operating/free cash flow) despite improving revenue and generally positive profitability. Earnings-call commentary is a net positive on underwriting improvement and growth guidance, but is tempered by catastrophe loss exposure, elevated expenses, and reserve/competition risks. Technicals are mildly bearish/neutral, while valuation is supported by the ~5% dividend but not clearly cheap on P/E.
Positive Factors
Improving underwriting metrics
Sustained improvement in accident-year combined ratios — including a sub-90% quarterly result — indicates better pricing, selection and claims management. Over the next 2–6 months this supports recurring underwriting profitability and reduces reliance on investment income to cover underwriting losses.
Negative Factors
Deteriorated operating and free cash flow
A recent TTM reversal to negative operating and free cash flow is a meaningful structural risk for an insurer: reported earnings are not being converted to cash, which limits reinvestment, complicates reserve funding and reduces buffer for underwriting volatility over the coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving underwriting metrics
Sustained improvement in accident-year combined ratios — including a sub-90% quarterly result — indicates better pricing, selection and claims management. Over the next 2–6 months this supports recurring underwriting profitability and reduces reliance on investment income to cover underwriting losses.
Read all positive factors
Global Indemnity (GBLI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$396.78M
Dividend Yield5.01%
Average Volume (3M)6.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.0
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth2.99%
EPS Growth14.96%
CountryUS
Employees266
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.32
Shares Outstanding10,815,515
10 Day Avg. Volume1,747
30 Day Avg. Volume6,823
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.36
Price to Book (P/B)0.57
Price to Sales (P/S)0.89
P/FCF Ratio44.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-86.78
Enterprise Value/Revenue-76.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-297.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-692.63
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$441.31M
Global Indemnity Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Global Indemnity Group, LLC, through its subsidiaries, provides specialty property and casualty insurance and reinsurance products worldwide. It operates through Commercial Specialty; Farm, Ranch, & Stable; and Reinsurance Operations segments. The...
How the Company Makes Money
Global Indemnity primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income generated from the investment of premiums and capital.
1) Underwriting income (core operating revenue)
- Premiums written/earned: The company sells s...
Global Indemnity Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlights meaningful underwriting improvements (notably a sub-90% quarterly accident combined ratio, improved loss ratios—especially in property—and 9% organic growth in core business excluding terminated programs), strong capital and a clear digital transformation roadmap that should drive scalability. Offsetting these positives are several near-term strains: a material Q1 wildfire loss, elevated expense ratio and corporate costs tied to technology and distribution investments, increased market competition that pressured new business (notably in Penn‑America), a modest decline in operating income year-over-year (ex-wildfire), prior-year adverse reserve development, and disappointing performance in a small private credit allocation. Given the balance of significant operational and underwriting progress alongside notable cost, competition and reserve/headline risks, the overall tone is guarded optimism but balanced.Positive Updates
Sub-90% Quarterly Accident Combined Ratio
Q4 accident year combined ratio improved to 89.3%, producing an underwriting profit of $11.0 million, versus a 96.6% combined ratio in Q4 last year — the first sub-90% quarterly accident year combined ratio in several years.
Negative Updates
Large California Wildfire Loss
A Q1 California wildfire produced a $15.7 million underwriting loss (contributing ~4 points to the combined ratio) and a $12 million after-tax loss, representing the largest wildfire loss the company has experienced.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sub-90% Quarterly Accident Combined Ratio
Q4 accident year combined ratio improved to 89.3%, producing an underwriting profit of $11.0 million, versus a 96.6% combined ratio in Q4 last year — the first sub-90% quarterly accident year combined ratio in several years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to meaningful top‑line growth and steady improvement in profitability: they expect Belmont core gross written premiums to grow 15–20% (or more) in 2026 after core GWP of $401M in 2025 (up 9% ex‑terminated products; Penn‑America $256M, +3%, retention 70%; Collectibles +8%; Vacant Express +16%; assumed reinsurance +77% to $45M; specialty ex‑terminated $37M). Underwriting trends are improving — current accident‑year combined ratio 92.2% (calendar combined ratio 94.6% vs 95.6% in 2024), property loss ratio 44.8% (‑9.3 pts y/y) and casualty 57.6% (≈‑1 pt) — though expense pressure remains elevated (Q4 expense ratio ~40.5%), expected to stay level in 2026 with improvement beginning in 2027. Investment posture is defensive but positioned to redeploy: fixed‑income yield and portfolio yield ~4.4%, average duration ~1 year, AA‑ average credit, total investment income ~$62.7M in 2025 and short‑duration net investment income ~$15.3M (quarter), with plans to extend duration into higher yields when appropriate. Capital and reserves: discretionary capital $284M, prior‑year reserve adverse development $9M (~1.2% of carried reserves), Belmont noncore reserves ran down $67M to $237M, and management expects book value (pre‑dividend) to rise at least 6–7% annually over the next two years with underlying returns (excluding excess capital) in the low‑ to mid‑teens.Global Indemnity Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 450.62M | 450.10M | 441.19M | 528.13M | 628.53M | 678.27M |
| Gross Profit | 115.91M | 221.82M | 80.65M | 56.36M | 32.92M | 70.46M |
| EBITDA | 49.71M | 38.96M | 60.72M | 39.17M | 13.37M | 53.70M |
| Net Income | 33.57M | 25.33M | 43.24M | 25.43M | -850.00K | 29.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.68T | 1.72B | 1.73B | 1.73B | 1.80B | 2.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 34.83B | 1.15B | 1.20B | 1.04B | 1.29B | 1.28B |
| Total Debt | 7.90M | 8.33M | 10.37M | 12.73M | 15.70M | 145.51M |
| Total Liabilities | 976.01B | 1.01B | 1.04B | 1.08B | 1.17B | 1.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 704.11B | 706.59M | 689.15M | 648.75M | 626.23M | 706.62M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -11.20M | 9.06M | 38.84M | 42.89M | 44.24M | 90.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -11.20M | 9.06M | 38.84M | 42.89M | 44.24M | 90.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.64M | 59.91M | -39.51M | -16.33M | 80.13M | -64.52M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -20.48M | -20.44M | -20.36M | -27.36M | -163.80M | -15.36M |
Global Indemnity Technical Analysis
Negative
28.28
Price Trends
27.86
Negative
28.02
Negative
28.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
45.19
Neutral
36.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBLI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.60, above the 50-day MA of 27.86, and above the 200-day MA of 28.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBLI.
Global Indemnity Risk Analysis
Global Indemnity disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Global Indemnity reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Global Indemnity Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $1.11B | 4.38 | 37.50% | 2.18% | 3.57% | 198.87% | |
71 Outperform | $655.63M | 13.60 | 10.41% | 3.51% | -2.46% | -11.49% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $530.20M | 7.09 | 33.02% | ― | 10.65% | 39.18% | |
62 Neutral | $225.82M | -9.06 | 0.11% | 0.57% | 39.38% | 27.06% | |
55 Neutral | $396.78M | 23.01 | 3.63% | 5.01% | 2.99% | 14.96% | |
46 Neutral | $281.82M | 5.38 | -4.24% | ― | -15.19% | -182.34% |
* Financial Sector Average
GBLI
Global Indemnity
27.16
-2.18
-7.42%
DGICA
Donegal Group
17.44
-2.16
-11.04%
KINS
Kingstone Companies
15.59
-0.16
-1.03%
UVE
Universal Insurance Holdings
39.92
14.02
54.13%
ACIC
American Coastal Insurance
10.94
0.56
5.45%
NODK
NI Holdings
13.76
0.58
4.40%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.