NI Holdings (NODK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $267.40M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.46K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.30
• Revenue Growth: -17.81%
• EPS Growth: 38.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 202
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): -0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 20,537,521
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,041
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,461
• PEG Ratio: -0.37
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.98
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▼(-2.03% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is held back primarily by weak/unstable fundamentals (ongoing net losses, negative TTM cash flow, and a major TTM revenue data red flag), despite a conservatively positioned balance sheet with minimal leverage. Technical signals are also negative (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation cannot be assessed reliably due to missing/invalid P/E and dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet and low leverage

Very low debt-to-equity (near 0.7%–0.8% in 2022–2024 and 0% earlier) and substantial equity (~$245M) provide a durable capital buffer. This supports underwriting volatility, catastrophe absorbency, and capacity for reinsurance or reserve strengthening without forcing rapid external financing.

Recent positive operating cash generation

Despite accounting losses, the company produced meaningful operating and free cash flow in 2023–2024, demonstrating an ability to convert premium receipts into cash. Durable cash generation reduces reliance on capital markets for near-term obligations and funds claims, reinsurance, and targeted expense investments.

Focused regional P&C franchise and product mix

A concentrated Upper Midwest footprint and focus on standard personal and commercial lines create underwriting expertise and local market knowledge. That regional focus supports stable premium retention through independent agents and enables targeted pricing and risk selection advantages versus broad, unfocused competitors.

Negative Factors

Sustained net losses and weak returns

The firm remains unprofitable in 2023–2024 with operating margins falling (EBIT margin from ~6.8% to ~3.1%) and negative net income, meaning shareholder capital is not earning positive returns. Persistent losses pressure retained earnings and constrain reinvestment or dividend capacity over the medium term.

Volatile cash flows and negative TTM cash

Cash flows swung from meaningful positive free cash flow in 2023–2024 to negative on a TTM basis, indicating instability in underwriting or investment timing. This volatility raises the risk of needing external capital for reserves, reinsurance, or working capital in adverse periods, limiting strategic flexibility.

Major data-quality red flag in reported TTM revenue

Reported TTM revenue of zero undermines confidence in current top-line run-rate and makes trend analysis unreliable. For an insurer, unclear premium recognition impedes assessment of underwriting momentum, pricing adequacy, reserve sufficiency, and capital planning across the next several months.

NI Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NI Holdings, Inc. underwrites property and casualty insurance products in the United States. The company's products include private passenger auto, non-standard automobile, homeowners, farm owners, crop hail and multi-peril crop, and liability insurance policies. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Fargo, North Dakota. NI Holdings, Inc. is a subsidiary of Nodak Mutual Group, Inc.

How the Company Makes Money

NI Holdings makes money primarily through (1) insurance underwriting and (2) investment income on its insurance float. 1) Underwriting (earned premiums minus claims and expenses): The company sells P&C insurance policies and collects premiums that are recognized as revenue over the coverage period (earned premiums). Profitability depends on maintaining a combined ratio below 100%, meaning that incurred losses and loss-adjustment expenses (claims-related costs) plus underwriting, acquisition, and operating expenses are less than earned premiums. NI Holdings’ underwriting results are influenced by factors such as weather/catastrophe events, loss frequency and severity trends (e.g., auto repair and medical inflation), pricing and underwriting discipline, reinsurance costs and structure, and the mix of business (personal vs. commercial lines). 2) Investment income and realized gains/losses: Premiums are received before many claims are paid, creating investable assets (the insurance float). The company invests these assets—typically in a portfolio that may include fixed income securities and other permitted investments under insurance regulation—and earns interest and dividends. It may also realize investment gains or losses when securities are sold or when market values change (as applicable under accounting rules). Additional economics and operating factors: The company typically distributes policies through independent agents and agencies; commissions and related acquisition costs reduce underwriting profit but support premium growth and retention. The company also uses reinsurance to limit exposure to large losses and catastrophes; reinsurance can reduce volatility but also reduces net premiums retained and adds reinsurance expense. Specific material partnerships, customer concentrations, or unique fee-based revenue streams are not available from the information provided here and are therefore null.

NI Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong capitalization and very low leverage support the balance sheet, but profitability remains weak (net losses in 2023–2024) and operating margins softened in 2024. Cash flow improved in 2023–2024 but turns negative on a TTM basis, and the reported TTM revenue of 0 is a major data-quality red flag that reduces confidence in recent performance.

Income Statement

Annual results show a sharp recovery from the large 2022 loss (net margin ~-19.8%) to much smaller losses in 2023–2024 (net margin ~-1.8% to -1.9%), with revenue growth positive in 2023–2024 (~13.5% and ~7.0%). However, profitability remains weak: net income is still negative in both 2023 and 2024, and operating profitability softened year-over-year (EBIT margin fell from ~6.8% in 2023 to ~3.1% in 2024). TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is shown as 0 with -100% growth, which is a major data red flag and limits confidence in the most recent run-rate.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears conservatively positioned with very low leverage across years (debt-to-equity ~0.7%–0.8% in 2022–2024, and 0% in 2020–2021). Equity remains substantial (~$245M in 2024) and supports the business through earnings volatility. The key weakness is returns: return on equity is negative in 2022–2024, indicating capital is not currently generating profits despite the strong capitalization.

Cash Flow

Cash generation was solid in 2023–2024 (operating cash flow ~$26M to ~$39M and free cash flow ~$25M to ~$38M), which is a positive signal versus net losses. That said, cash flow has been volatile: 2022 operating and free cash flow were meaningfully negative, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating and free cash flow are negative (~-$10.8M). The large swing from positive cash flow in 2024 to negative in TTM suggests either meaningful near-term pressure or reporting/data inconsistency that increases risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	285.05M	325.20M	304.02M	267.78M	323.97M
Gross Profit	84.26M	46.48M	49.87M	-27.57M	43.02M
EBITDA	-11.54M	10.83M	21.27M	-52.22M	12.47M
Net Income	-10.41M	-6.06M	-5.48M	-53.10M	8.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	240.72M	526.54M	654.89M	614.23M	651.78M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	678.00K	191.97M	330.44M	175.04M	435.27M
Total Debt	1.39M	1.82M	2.06M	1.84M	0.00
Total Liabilities	385.00K	281.91M	404.49M	361.02M	304.37M
Stockholders Equity	240.72M	244.63M	247.64M	250.98M	343.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-15.49M	37.52M	25.00M	-31.55M	28.47M
Operating Cash Flow	2.00M	38.51M	25.97M	-30.39M	29.17M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.00M	-4.54M	-8.81M	25.05M	-48.15M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.67M	-3.64M	-7.47M	-18.28M	-11.47M

NI Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.27
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NODK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.18, below the 50-day MA of 13.30, and above the 200-day MA of 13.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NODK.

NI Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACIC	70 Outperform	$538.14M	5.73	35.67%	―	16.34%	-1.26%
DGICA	69 Neutral	$616.87M	7.74	12.91%	3.51%	0.93%	224.95%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GBLI	67 Neutral	$409.57M	15.90	0.01%	5.01%	-0.04%	-33.45%
KINS	67 Neutral	$210.93M	5.75	0.13%	0.57%	39.32%	61.45%
NODK	48 Neutral	$267.40M	-26.81	1.07%	―	-17.81%	38.09%

NI Holdings Corporate Events

NI Holdings Announces Upcoming Board Transition in 2026

On February 17, 2026, NI Holdings, Inc. director Duaine C. Espegard informed the board that he will not stand for re-election at the company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. The company stated that Espegard’s decision was not due to any disagreement over operations, policies, or practices, and he will continue to serve until his term ends at that meeting, signaling an orderly and non-contentious board transition for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NODK) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NI Holdings stock, see the NODK Stock Forecast page.