NextNav (NN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.91B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.40
• Revenue Growth: 11.61%
• EPS Growth: -54.84%
• Country: US
• Employees: 96
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Internet Content & Information
• EPS (TTM): -0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 134,829,090
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,717,061
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,192,183
• PEG Ratio: -0.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 37.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 333.49
• P/FCF Ratio: -49.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 358.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -555.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -30.33
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.65
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.87M

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▲(0.21% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (persistent losses, negative equity, and declining revenue) and a bearish technical setup with the stock below major moving averages. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call was relatively positive due to reported cash strength and progress on partnerships and technology milestones, though regulatory timing uncertainty remains a key risk.

Positive Factors

Large cash balance

A substantial cash position provides durable optionality: it funds continued R&D, network rollouts, and regulatory engagement without immediate financing, reducing dilution risk and giving management time to commercialize 5G PNT products and pursue partnerships over the next several quarters.

Carrier partnership extension

A multi‑year operational agreement with a major carrier validates NextNav's Pinnacle offering, anchors a commercial deployment channel, and creates a durable competitive moat via integration with carrier networks that supports scale, recurring revenue potential, and customer credibility.

5G 3D PNT technical milestone

Demonstrated integration with standard 5G equipment and a scalable 3D PNT solution strengthens product differentiation and lowers deployment friction. This technical progress and compatibility support durable commercial adoption across carriers and enterprise customers.

Negative Factors

Negative stockholders' equity

Negative equity signals structural balance sheet weakness that constrains financial flexibility. It increases refinancing and covenant risk, may elevate cost of capital, and limits the company's ability to absorb setbacks or fund long‑term network investments without dilutive financing.

Persistent losses and shrinking revenue

Deep negative margins and falling revenue indicate ongoing challenges scaling a profitable business model. Without durable improvements in unit economics or customer monetization, losses will persist, undermining reinvestment capacity and the path to sustainable profitability.

Weak operating cash flow

Negative operating cash flow despite slight free cash flow gains suggests core operations are not yet cash generative. Continued operating cash deficits risk eroding cash reserves or forcing capital raises, which could delay network expansion and long‑term commercialization plans.

NextNav Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NextNav Inc. provides next generation global positioning system (GPS) and 3D geolocation services. The company delivers next generation positioning, navigation, and timing solutions through its network-based Pinnacle and TerraPoiNT solutions. Its Pinnacle 3D geolocation service is commercially available in approximately 4,400 cities and towns in the United States; and its TerraPoiNT terrestrial-based encrypted network has deployments in 51 total markets nationally. The company sells its solutions directly to customers or through partners. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

NextNav generates revenue primarily through the licensing of its proprietary technology and data solutions to various sectors, including government agencies, public safety organizations, and commercial enterprises. Key revenue streams include subscription-based services for real-time location data, one-time fees for integration and setup, and partnerships with telecommunications companies that leverage NextNav's technology for enhanced services. The company also benefits from collaborations with municipalities and urban planners, providing location services that support smart infrastructure and public safety initiatives, contributing significantly to its earnings.

NextNav Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak fundamentals: negative gross and net margins (TTM gross margin -43.74%), declining TTM revenue (-11.50%), and negative stockholders’ equity indicating liabilities exceed assets. Cash flow shows only modest improvement (TTM free cash flow growth +4.68%) while operating cash flow remains negative.

Income Statement

NextNav's income statement reveals significant challenges. The company has consistently reported negative gross profit margins, with the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin at -43.74%. Net profit margins are also deeply negative, indicating substantial losses relative to revenue. Revenue growth has been negative in the TTM period, showing a decline of 11.50%. These factors highlight ongoing profitability issues and a lack of revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a concerning financial structure with negative stockholders' equity in the TTM period, leading to a negative debt-to-equity ratio. This indicates that liabilities exceed assets, posing a risk to financial stability. The return on equity is positive due to negative equity, but this is not a sign of strength. Overall, the balance sheet reflects high leverage and financial instability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates some improvement, with a positive free cash flow growth rate of 4.68% in the TTM period. However, operating cash flow remains negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, suggesting cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, indicating that free cash flow covers net losses, but overall cash flow health remains weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.54M	5.67M	3.86M	3.93M	763.00K	569.00K
Gross Profit	-3.58M	-5.11M	-8.88M	-7.88M	-17.63M	-7.20M
EBITDA	-65.55M	-55.48M	-59.04M	-61.31M	-40.65M	-127.03M
Net Income	-153.56M	-101.88M	-71.73M	-40.12M	-144.67M	-137.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	263.07M	161.74M	162.16M	123.79M	136.82M	44.90M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	167.58M	80.11M	85.83M	55.45M	100.08M	8.67M
Total Debt	245.81M	71.44M	66.11M	7.82M	0.00	58.87M
Total Liabilities	285.19M	111.62M	82.06M	19.92M	36.87M	535.28M
Stockholders Equity	-22.12M	50.12M	78.73M	100.02M	99.96M	-490.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-47.15M	-38.36M	-38.19M	-40.67M	-49.21M	-35.58M
Operating Cash Flow	-46.62M	-38.01M	-35.44M	-37.09M	-47.93M	-28.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-56.77M	-39.47M	1.07M	-15.74M	-1.28M	-7.18M
Financing Cash Flow	125.44M	35.10M	68.98M	43.00K	135.64M	34.77M

NextNav Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.99, below the 50-day MA of 15.49, and below the 200-day MA of 14.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.27 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NN.

NextNav Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRVG	64 Neutral	$1.47B	13.93	6.23%	―	17.38%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
PODC	59 Neutral	$72.66M	-13.00	-34.22%	―	20.01%	27.28%
CCG	50 Neutral	$64.62M	-7.14	―	―	105.31%	95.66%
BODI	50 Neutral	$78.89M	-1.72	-102.66%	―	-37.41%	60.58%
NN	47 Neutral	$1.91B	―	-706.79%	―	11.61%	-54.84%
SEAT	46 Neutral	$97.69M	-0.27	-51.54%	―	-16.83%	-485.31%