Nextnav Inc. (NN)
NASDAQ:NN
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NextNav
(NASDAQ:NN)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$22.50
▼(-1.45% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, negative gross profit, persistent cash burn, and negative equity). Offsetting factors include a strong technical uptrend and a generally positive earnings-call backdrop focused on regulatory milestones and liquidity runway, though execution, dilution, and early-stage commercialization risks remain.
Positive Factors
Regulatory progress (FCC NPRM advancement)
Advancement of an FCC NPRM elevates NextNav from prototype to standards-level discussion, potentially clearing regulatory barriers to commercial terrestrial PNT deployments. Formal rulemaking would validate the company’s market role, enabling larger customers and infrastructure partners to plan multi-year integrations.
Negative Factors
Negative gross profit and declining revenue
Negative gross profit indicates unit economics are not yet viable and declining top-line shows commercialization traction is weak. Without durable gross-margin recovery or consistent revenue growth, scaling will accentuate losses, making it hard to reach self-sustaining operations or fund expansion without repeated external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulatory progress (FCC NPRM advancement)
Advancement of an FCC NPRM elevates NextNav from prototype to standards-level discussion, potentially clearing regulatory barriers to commercial terrestrial PNT deployments. Formal rulemaking would validate the company’s market role, enabling larger customers and infrastructure partners to plan multi-year integrations.
Read all positive factors
NextNav (NN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.16B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.44
Revenue Growth-34.62%
EPS Growth-4.18%
CountryUS
Employees96
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.18
Shares Outstanding136,436,940
10 Day Avg. Volume2,296,111
30 Day Avg. Volume3,024,529
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.17
Price to Book (P/B)-25.64
Price to Sales (P/S)483.47
P/FCF Ratio-43.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue781.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-375.26
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-72.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.00Price Target Upside18.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.90M
NextNav Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NextNav Inc. provides next generation global positioning system (GPS) and 3D geolocation services. The company delivers next generation positioning, navigation, and timing solutions through its network-based Pinnacle and TerraPoiNT solutions. Its ...
How the Company Makes Money
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NextNav Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong strategic and regulatory progress (FCC NPRM advancement, operation of an experimental 5G PNT network, international MetCom partnership, $152M cash and potential >$200M from warrants, governance hires) that management frames as validation of NextNav's technology and national-security relevance. However, material near-term risks remain: a sizeable noncash net loss (~$68M driven by ~$48M derivative/warrant mark-to-market), uncertainty around the NPRM timing/content, limited scope of current experimental testing, potential dilution tied to warrants, and no reported revenue or growth metrics. On balance, the positive regulatory milestones, commercial validation steps, and stated multi-year liquidity runway outweigh the near-term financial and execution uncertainties presented on the call.Positive Updates
FCC NPRM Milestone and Momentum
The FCC formally sent a draft notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) focused on PNT technology to the White House OMB—an important regulatory milestone. Management expressed confidence in a direct path to a report and order and emphasized that the NPRM underscores national security urgency and validates NextNav's role in terrestrial PNT redundancy. (Timing and final content remain outside the company's control.)
Negative Updates
Quarterly Net Loss Driven by Noncash Warrant/Derivative Charges
The company recognized approximately $48 million in losses related to changes in the fair value of derivative and warrant liabilities, resulting in a net loss for the quarter of roughly $68 million. Management characterized these as noncash charges tied to 2025 funding activity. Percentage change versus prior periods was not provided.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
FCC NPRM Milestone and Momentum
The FCC formally sent a draft notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) focused on PNT technology to the White House OMB—an important regulatory milestone. Management expressed confidence in a direct path to a report and order and emphasized that the NPRM underscores national security urgency and validates NextNav's role in terrestrial PNT redundancy. (Timing and final content remain outside the company's control.)
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings call (transcript dated March 17, 2026), management guided that the FCC has forwarded a draft NPRM on PNT to OMB (reported March 2) and expressed confidence in a near‑term vote and a direct path to a report-and-order, while noting exact timing is outside their control; they have begun operating an experimental 5G‑powered PNT network and are testing toward a 10+5 MHz positioning capability. On liquidity and runway, NextNav closed Q4 with approximately $152 million in cash, cash equivalents and short‑term investments, and noted a significant number of warrants expiring in 2026 that could potentially deliver over $200 million of additional capital depending on stock price, which management says provides funding for multiple years. They reported noncash fair‑value losses of roughly $48 million on derivative and warrant liabilities in the quarter, contributing to a net loss of about $68 million for Q4. Management also highlighted international commercialization progress with an expanded MetCom partnership in Japan (targeting major metropolitan timing services) and governance strengthening with Lisa Hook joining as Lead Independent Director.NextNav Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.03M | 4.57M | 5.67M | 3.86M | 3.93M | 763.00K |
| Gross Profit | -8.39M | -11.72M | -5.11M | -8.88M | -7.88M | -17.63M |
| EBITDA | -43.64M | -62.48M | -55.48M | -59.04M | -61.31M | -40.65M |
| Net Income | -141.29M | -189.25M | -101.88M | -71.73M | -40.12M | -144.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 235.64M | 248.09M | 161.74M | 162.16M | 123.79M | 136.82M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 142.96M | 152.14M | 80.11M | 85.83M | 55.45M | 100.08M |
| Total Debt | 14.28M | 288.60M | 71.44M | 66.11M | 7.82M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 325.61M | 334.33M | 111.62M | 82.06M | 19.92M | 36.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | -89.97M | -86.23M | 50.12M | 78.73M | 100.02M | 99.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -48.85M | -50.80M | -38.36M | -38.19M | -40.67M | -49.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -48.61M | -50.74M | -38.01M | -35.44M | -37.09M | -47.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -71.72M | -64.55M | -39.47M | 1.07M | -15.74M | -1.28M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 543.00K | 120.48M | 35.10M | 68.98M | 43.00K | 135.64M |
NextNav Technical Analysis
Positive
22.83
Price Trends
18.45
Positive
17.13
Positive
15.97
Positive
Market Momentum
1.20
Negative
67.56
Neutral
86.86
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.68, above the 50-day MA of 18.45, and above the 200-day MA of 15.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.86 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NN.
NextNav Risk Analysis
NextNav disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NextNav reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NextNav Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $110.78M | -107.86 | -26.67% | ― | 20.86% | 37.40% | |
64 Neutral | $1.62B | -5.59 | 5.70% | ― | 26.61% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $74.23M | 8.45 | 18.73% | ― | -37.04% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $3.16B | -51.03 | 230.18% | ― | -34.62% | -4.18% | |
50 Neutral | $88.78M | -1.09 | -567.03% | ― | -28.88% | -15473.93% | |
47 Neutral | $50.98M | ― | -10.32% | ― | ― | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
NN
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NextNav Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
NextNav Expands Board, Appoints Lisa Hook as Director
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
On February 24, 2026, NextNav Inc.’s board of directors expanded from nine to ten members and appointed Lisa Hook as a director, with her term running until the company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, where she will stand for re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.