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Nike
(NYSE:NKE)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(0.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/01/26
The score is held back primarily by the deterioration in profitability and cash generation in TTM and by management’s guidance for near-term revenue declines. Offsetting factors include a stable balance sheet, an attractive dividend yield, and an earnings-call narrative that points to earlier-than-expected gross-margin improvement and momentum in performance categories/wholesale, though recent results were meaningfully helped by a one-time tariff recovery and core Direct/digital and China remain pressured.
Positive Factors
Performance category momentum (Running)
Sustained double-digit running growth over five quarters reflects a durable product franchise and successful innovation. That scale and market-share gain support higher average selling prices, stronger wholesale placements, and a lasting revenue foundation that can offset softer segments over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability and cash-flow compression
A marked decline in margins and operating cash flow weakens internal funding for marketing, R&D and inventory resets. Reduced free cash flow constrains capital allocation, increases sensitivity to working-capital swings, and limits ability to consistently invest behind growth initiatives over the coming 2–6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Performance category momentum (Running)
Sustained double-digit running growth over five quarters reflects a durable product franchise and successful innovation. That scale and market-share gain support higher average selling prices, stronger wholesale placements, and a lasting revenue foundation that can offset softer segments over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nike Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Shows sales split across regions such as North America, EMEA, Greater China and Asia Pacific, revealing where the company is strongest and where growth or risk is concentrated. Geographic mix highlights exposure to local economic cycles, currency moves, and regional competition.
Shows sales split across regions such as North America, EMEA, Greater China and Asia Pacific, revealing where the company is strongest and where growth or risk is concentrated. Geographic mix highlights exposure to local economic cycles, currency moves, and regional competition.
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The Fly
The FlyNike (NKE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$65.71B
Dividend Yield2.81%
Average Volume (3M)26.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.8
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth>-0.01%
EPS Growth-2.96%
CountryUS
Employees79,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Footwear & Accessories
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.10
Shares Outstanding1,199,499,300
10 Day Avg. Volume31,689,761
30 Day Avg. Volume26,528,619
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.78
Price to Book (P/B)4.58
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$49.55Price Target Upside18.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering25
EPS Forecast (FY)1.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)$45.78B
Nike Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NIKE, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a global enterprise focused on the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for all ages and genders. Beyond its primary offerings,...
How the Company Makes Money
Nike primarily makes money by selling branded athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment across three main brand lines: Nike, Jordan, and Converse. (1) Product sales (largest driver): Revenue is generated from the sale of footwear (e.g., running, b...
Nike Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 30, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented meaningful progress in performance categories (notably Nike Running and global football), successful World Cup engagement, wholesale gains and a one-time tariff recovery that materially improved reported results. However, underlying top-line trends remain pressured: Nike Direct/digital declines, sustained sportswear and Jordan underperformance (roughly half of revenue), and pronounced weakness in Greater China and parts of EMEA. Management outlined decisive operational actions and a path to margin recovery beginning in FY27, but near-term revenue moderation and macro / tariff uncertainties persist.Positive Updates
Nike Running Momentum
Five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth in Nike Running, adding roughly $1 billion to the running business and gaining ~5 percentage points of market share in stated footwear across Western Europe and North America.
Negative Updates
Topline Pressure — Revenue Declines
Q4 revenue down 1% reported and down 4% currency-neutral; full-year revenue flat reported and down 2% currency-neutral. Company now expects FY27 revenue to be down low- to mid-single digits.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Nike Running Momentum
Five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth in Nike Running, adding roughly $1 billion to the running business and gaining ~5 percentage points of market share in stated footwear across Western Europe and North America.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nike guided that revenue will moderate, with Q1 reported and currency‑neutral revenues expected to be down low‑ to mid‑single digits (with no FX benefit and currency‑neutral growth “consistent with recent performance”) and a sequential deceleration into Q2 driven by multipoint headwinds; they reiterated earnings are expected to be flattish over the near term excluding the one‑time tariff recovery. Gross margin expansion is now expected earlier than previously guided—beginning in Q1 (Q1 gross margin “slightly positive”) versus prior expectations of an inflection in Q2—and the company is modeling incremental tariff rates of ~10% through end‑July rising to ~15% thereafter. Q1 SG&A dollars are expected to be flat with operating overhead declining while demand‑creation investment grows high single digits; the full‑year tax rate is expected in the low‑20% range.Nike Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 46.40B | 46.31B | 51.36B | 51.22B | 46.71B |
| Gross Profit | 19.91B | 19.79B | 22.89B | 22.29B | 21.48B |
| EBITDA | 3.95B | 4.98B | 7.80B | 7.34B | 7.78B |
| Net Income | 3.11B | 3.22B | 5.70B | 5.07B | 6.05B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 38.41B | 36.58B | 38.11B | 37.53B | 40.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.03B | 9.15B | 11.58B | 10.68B | 13.00B |
| Total Debt | 11.03B | 11.02B | 11.95B | 12.14B | 12.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.55B | 23.37B | 23.68B | 23.53B | 25.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.87B | 13.21B | 14.43B | 14.00B | 15.28B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 3.27B | 6.62B | 4.87B | 4.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 3.70B | 7.43B | 5.84B | 5.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -275.00M | 894.00M | 564.00M | -1.52B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -5.82B | -5.89B | -7.45B | -4.84B |
Nike Technical Analysis
Positive
41.88
Price Trends
43.49
Positive
47.60
Negative
55.70
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Negative
51.87
Neutral
71.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NKE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.18, below the 50-day MA of 43.49, and below the 200-day MA of 55.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NKE.
Nike Risk Analysis
Nike disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nike reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nike Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $14.72B | 15.29 | 40.79% | ― | 9.35% | 10.89% | |
70 Outperform | $3.22B | 20.23 | 10.26% | 2.18% | 0.54% | -19.72% | |
70 Outperform | $8.36B | 20.42 | 12.95% | ― | 20.35% | 54.59% | |
67 Neutral | $14.15B | 9.66 | 31.26% | ― | 4.22% | -15.57% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $6.60B | -99.59 | -7.54% | ― | -1.85% | -108.05% | |
54 Neutral | $65.71B | 20.84 | 16.41% | 2.81% | >-0.01% | -2.96% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
NKE
Nike
43.76
-26.56
-37.77%
COLM
Columbia Sportswear
63.72
4.58
7.74%
CROX
Crocs
130.46
28.45
27.89%
DECK
Deckers Outdoor
107.80
9.42
9.58%
LULU
Lululemon Athletica
120.30
-108.59
-47.44%
BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc
44.63
-3.30
-6.89%
Nike Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Nike Announces New CFO and Finance Leadership Transition
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Nike announced a planned finance leadership transition, naming David M. Denton as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective mid-August 2026, while current CFO Matthew Friend will step down at that time and re...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Nike Announces Board Transition as John Rogers Retires
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Nike announced that John W. Rogers, Jr., a board member since 2018 and founder of Ariel Investments, will retire from its board following the September 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, after which the board is expected to shr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.