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Nike (NKE)
NYSE:NKE

Nike (NKE) AI Stock Analysis

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Nike

(NYSE:NKE)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$84.00
▲(9.96%Upside)
Nike's strong financial health and strategic initiatives are offset by current revenue challenges and valuation concerns. The technical analysis suggests potential short-term volatility, but long-term prospects remain promising due to strategic investments and leadership changes.
Positive Factors
E-commerce and Pricing Strategies
Nike is leveraging its e-commerce channel to enhance pricing strategies.
Financial Performance
The price target for Nike Inc has been raised, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.
Market Position
Nike is expected to maintain its dominance in the athletic apparel and footwear markets, especially in high-end footwear.
Negative Factors
Profitability
The company is still facing significant earnings pressure and profit guidance for F1Q was lower than consensus.
Revenue and Sales
Nike's revenue in Greater China fell significantly, impacting overall performance.
Tariffs and Costs
Tariffs are expected to drive an 'incremental cost increase' of ~$1B.

Nike (NKE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nike Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNike, Inc. is a leading global designer, marketer, and distributor of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories. Headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon, Nike operates in the sportswear and equipment sector, catering to a wide range of sports and fitness activities. With a strong brand presence worldwide, Nike's core products include running shoes, sportswear, and lifestyle apparel, all aimed at enhancing athletic performance and promoting an active lifestyle.
How the Company Makes MoneyNike primarily generates revenue through the sale of its athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment, which are distributed through a combination of wholesale customers, direct-to-consumer sales, and digital platforms. Wholesale distribution involves selling products to retail partners such as sporting goods stores and department stores, which then sell to consumers. The direct-to-consumer segment includes sales through Nike's own retail stores and e-commerce platforms, which have become increasingly significant. Key revenue streams for Nike also include the Nike Brand, which encompasses its flagship products, and the Converse brand, known for its iconic sneakers. Nike's earnings are further supported by strategic partnerships and endorsements with high-profile athletes and sports teams, which enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement.

Nike Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which product lines or services are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Chart InsightsNike's recent revenue trends reveal a notable decline in the Footwear and Apparel segments, reflecting broader challenges highlighted in the earnings call. Despite innovative product launches and brand engagement efforts, revenue fell 9% due to markdowns and Greater China struggles. The company is focusing on reducing promotions and adjusting inventory, aiming for a strategic rebound. Performance products like running gear show promise, but overall, Nike faces a balanced outlook with pressures on margins and inventory management.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Nike Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 26, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 22.15%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 25, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strategic advancements and significant financial challenges. While NIKE is making tangible progress with innovative product launches and improving its wholesale order book, the call highlighted substantial revenue declines and ongoing struggles in key markets like Greater China. Additionally, new tariffs are introducing a substantial financial burden, though mitigation efforts are underway.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Innovative Product Launches
NIKE launched innovative products such as the Vomero 18, which quickly became a $100 million-plus franchise. The women's basketball business expanded by more than 50% this fiscal year, highlighted by the successful launch of A'ja Wilson's Signature Collection, which sold out in 3 minutes.
Wholesale Order Book Improvement
NIKE's holiday order book is up, indicating growing confidence from wholesale partners. North America, EMEA, and APLA showed growth in orders, offsetting challenges in Greater China.
Resilient Marketplace Strategy
NIKE is expanding its distribution through strategic partnerships, including a new partnership with Amazon. The company is also making progress in cleaning up the marketplace, especially in North America and EMEA.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Margin Decline
Q4 revenues declined 12% on a reported basis and 11% on a currency-neutral basis. Gross margins also fell by 440 basis points to 40.3%, primarily due to higher wholesale discounts and supply chain cost deleverage.
Challenges in Greater China
Revenue in Greater China declined 20%, with significant impacts from inventory resets and promotional challenges. The region requires more time to recover compared to other geographies.
Impact of New Tariffs
Newly issued tariffs present a $1 billion cost headwind, impacting gross margins by 75 basis points for fiscal '26. The company is taking steps to mitigate this impact over time.
Company Guidance
During NIKE, Inc.'s Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming fiscal year, focusing on its strategic "Win Now" actions and sport offense realignment. In fiscal '26, NIKE anticipates a mid-single-digit revenue decline in Q1, with gross margins down by 350 to 425 basis points, partly due to new tariffs, which are expected to have a 75 basis point impact on gross margin for the entire year. The company's holiday order book is up, indicating positive momentum in wholesale, particularly in North America, EMEA, and APLA. NIKE's inventory management is on track, with expectations to exit the first half of fiscal '26 in a healthy state. The company is also working on mitigating a $1 billion tariff cost over time through various strategies, including optimizing its sourcing mix and implementing surgical price increases. While Greater China remains challenging, with a 20% revenue decline in Q4, NIKE is focused on refreshing its brand presence and product offering in the region. The company remains committed to returning to sustainable profitable growth, leveraging its strong brand portfolio and market presence.

Nike Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nike demonstrates strong financial health with robust profitability and efficient cash flow management, though recent revenue contraction warrants attention. The balance sheet stability is a significant strength, with no leverage concerns. Continued focus on revenue growth will be critical to maintaining its financial momentum.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Nike's income statement shows a strong gross profit margin of 43.8% for TTM, indicating robust cost management and pricing power. However, a decrease in revenue from the previous fiscal year by 6.9% raises concerns. The net profit margin stands at 9.4%, reflecting solid profitability despite the revenue drop. The EBIT margin of 10.4% further corroborates Nike's operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a healthy equity ratio of 100%, indicating strong financial stability and no leverage, as liabilities and equity are balanced. The debt-to-equity ratio is not applicable due to the equity matching assets, highlighting no financial leverage concerns. Return on equity stands at 11.9%, showing efficient use of shareholder funds.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Nike's cash flow statement indicates a free cash flow growth of 9% from the previous fiscal year, showcasing effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.3, suggesting good cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.18 points to some discrepancies between accounting profit and cash generation.
BreakdownTTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue47.82B51.36B51.22B46.71B44.54B37.40B
Gross Profit20.95B22.89B22.29B21.48B19.96B16.24B
EBITDA4.77B7.16B6.77B7.51B7.73B4.23B
Net Income4.51B5.70B5.07B6.05B5.73B2.54B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets37.79B38.11B37.53B40.32B37.74B31.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments10.39B11.58B10.68B13.00B13.48B8.79B
Total Debt11.91B11.95B12.14B12.63B12.81B13.02B
Total Liabilities23.79B23.68B23.53B25.04B24.97B23.29B
Stockholders Equity14.01B14.43B14.00B15.28B12.77B8.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow5.31B6.62B4.87B4.43B5.96B1.40B
Operating Cash Flow5.85B7.43B5.84B5.19B6.66B2.48B
Investing Cash Flow-579.00M894.00M564.00M-1.52B-3.80B-1.03B
Financing Cash Flow-5.60B-5.89B-7.45B-4.84B-1.46B2.49B

Nike Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price76.39
Price Trends
50DMA
61.30
Positive
100DMA
64.82
Positive
200DMA
70.90
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.85
Negative
RSI
76.58
Negative
STOCH
90.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NKE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.01, above the 50-day MA of 61.30, and above the 200-day MA of 70.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.58 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NKE.

Nike Risk Analysis

Nike disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nike reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nike Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$15.75B16.7741.82%16.22%29.52%
77
Outperform
$6.01B6.5453.70%2.09%26.18%
77
Outperform
$9.21B34.119.35%18.55%147.70%
74
Outperform
$1.83B10.8619.51%3.33%10.17%-4.71%
SKSKX
72
Outperform
$9.44B15.2214.67%10.66%9.44%
NKNKE
69
Neutral
$108.35B33.9923.29%2.09%-9.74%-42.38%
65
Neutral
€21.06B12.807.21%3.45%0.31%-40.22%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NKE
Nike
76.39
2.54
3.44%
CROX
Crocs
106.74
-36.80
-25.64%
DECK
Deckers Outdoor
106.26
-50.29
-32.12%
SKX
Skechers USA
63.25
-2.99
-4.51%
SHOO
Steven Madden
26.04
-14.87
-36.35%
BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc
49.05
-7.57
-13.37%

Nike Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Nike Nominates Jørgen Vig Knudstorp to Board
Positive
Jun 25, 2025

On June 24, 2025, NIKE, Inc. announced the nomination of Jørgen Vig Knudstorp for election to its Board of Directors at the upcoming annual meeting on September 9, 2025. Knudstorp, with extensive experience in brand and digital marketing, strategy, and consumer products from his tenure at LEGO, is expected to contribute significantly to NIKE’s growth and brand storytelling initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (NKE) stock is a Hold with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nike stock, see the NKE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Nike Board Member Cathleen Benko Announces Retirement
Neutral
Jun 18, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Cathleen Benko announced her retirement from Nike‘s Board of Directors, effective at the company’s 2025 annual shareholder meeting. Her departure is amicable, with no disagreements with the company, and she is commended for her contributions over the past seven years.

The most recent analyst rating on (NKE) stock is a Hold with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nike stock, see the NKE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Nike Announces Major Leadership Restructuring for Growth
Positive
May 5, 2025

On May 5, 2025, Nike, Inc. announced significant changes to its Senior Leadership Team to support its ‘Win Now’ action plan and future growth. The company eliminated the President, Consumer, Product & Brand role, leading to Heidi O’Neill’s retirement after 26 years. The leadership restructuring includes Amy Montagne as President, Phil McCartney as EVP, Chief Innovation, Design & Product Officer, Nicole Graham as EVP, Chief Marketing Officer, and Tom Clarke as Chief Growth Initiatives Officer. These changes aim to enhance Nike’s focus on consumer engagement, innovation, and brand distinction, positioning the company for continued success.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 03, 2025