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Nike (NKE) AI Stock Analysis

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NKE

Nike

(NYSE:NKE)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$78.00
▲(9.52% Upside)
Nike's overall stock score reflects a mix of strong financial management and strategic initiatives against a backdrop of current challenges. The company's profitability and cash flow are robust, but technical indicators and valuation suggest caution. Earnings call insights provide a balanced view of near-term pressures and long-term growth potential.
Positive Factors
Strategic Realignment
Nike's strategic realignment focuses on innovation and growth, aiming to enhance brand positioning and drive long-term success across its key brands.
Partnership with Amazon
The partnership with Amazon expands Nike's distribution network, increasing brand visibility and potentially boosting sales through a major e-commerce platform.
Innovative Product Launches
Successful product launches like the Vomero 18 highlight Nike's innovation capabilities, driving consumer interest and supporting long-term revenue growth.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
A significant decline in revenue indicates challenges in sales performance, potentially impacting the company's ability to sustain growth in the near term.
Gross Margin Pressure
Decreasing gross margins suggest cost pressures and pricing challenges, which could affect profitability if not managed effectively.
Impact of New Tariffs
New tariffs add significant cost pressures, potentially squeezing margins and affecting competitive pricing, impacting long-term financial performance.

Nike (NKE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Nike Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells men's, women's, and kids athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories worldwide. The company provides athletic and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories under the Jumpman trademark; and casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories under the Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell trademarks. In addition, it sells a line of performance equipment and accessories comprising bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, and other equipment for sports activities under the NIKE brand; and various plastic products to other manufacturers. The company markets apparel with licensed college and professional team, and league logos, as well as sells sports apparel. Additionally, it licenses unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell apparel, digital devices, and applications and other equipment for sports activities under NIKE-owned trademarks. The company sells its products to footwear stores; sporting goods stores; athletic specialty stores; department stores; skate, tennis, and golf shops; and other retail accounts through NIKE-owned retail stores, digital platforms, independent distributors, licensees, and sales representatives. The company was formerly known as Blue Ribbon Sports, Inc. and changed its name to NIKE, Inc. in 1971. NIKE, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.
How the Company Makes MoneyNike generates revenue primarily through the sale of its footwear, apparel, and equipment. The company's revenue model is driven by a combination of wholesale distribution to retailers and direct-to-consumer sales through its own retail stores and e-commerce platforms. Key revenue streams include the sale of performance and lifestyle products, with particular strength in athletic footwear. Nike also benefits from significant partnerships, including collaborations with professional athletes and sports teams, which enhance brand visibility and drive sales. Additionally, the company has invested heavily in digital transformation, improving its online presence and customer engagement, contributing to a growing portion of its revenue from e-commerce. Lastly, licensing and royalties from the use of its brand and trademarks further bolster its earnings.

Nike Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which product lines or services are driving growth and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Chart InsightsNike's footwear and apparel segments are experiencing a downward trend, with footwear showing a sharper decline. Despite this, the earnings call highlights positive momentum in wholesale orders, particularly in North America and EMEA, suggesting potential recovery. However, challenges persist in Greater China, with a 20% revenue drop, and new tariffs are expected to pressure margins further. Nike's strategic focus on innovative product launches and partnerships, like with Amazon, aims to counteract these pressures and drive sustainable growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Nike Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 26, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a challenging period for NIKE with significant revenue declines and gross margin pressures. However, strategic realignments and partnerships, alongside improvements in the order book, offer positive signs for future growth.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
NIKE's Win Now Actions and Realignment
NIKE has implemented Win Now actions and a sport offense realignment to reposition its brands and business for future growth. This includes a focus on sport-obsessed teams to drive innovation and growth across NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands.
Improvements in NIKE's Order Book
There is an improvement in the holiday order book, with growth seen in North America, EMEA, and APLA, only partially offset by Greater China. This indicates progress with wholesale partners and confidence in the product portfolio.
Strategic Partnership with Amazon
NIKE announced a new partnership with Amazon to carry a select assortment of footwear, apparel, and accessories, contributing to the integrated marketplace strategy.
Innovative Product Launches
NIKE introduced products such as the Vomero 18, which became a $100 million franchise in just over 90 days, and A'ja Wilson's Signature Collection, which sold out in 3 minutes on NIKE Digital in North America.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
For the fourth quarter, revenues were down 12% on a reported basis and down 11% on a currency-neutral basis, with NIKE Direct declining 14% and wholesale declining 9%.
Gross Margin Pressure
Gross margins declined 440 basis points to 40.3% on a reported basis due to higher wholesale discounts, supply chain cost deleverage, and channel mix headwinds.
Challenges in Greater China
Revenue in Greater China declined 20%, with traffic remaining challenged. A deeper reset of inventory and brand distinction through sport-led concepts is needed for recovery.
Impact of New Tariffs
The newly issued tariffs represent a $1 billion cost headwind, impacting NIKE's gross margins by 75 basis points for fiscal '26, with a greater impact in the first half.
Company Guidance
During NIKE's Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance for the upcoming fiscal year, underscoring their "Win Now" actions aimed at repositioning the brand for growth. For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, they anticipate revenues to decline by mid-single digits due to ongoing inventory liquidation and digital traffic challenges. Gross margins are expected to decrease by 350 to 425 basis points, impacted by new tariffs which present a $1 billion cost headwind, with a net effect of 75 basis points on the year's gross margins. Despite these challenges, NIKE reported progress in cleaning up the marketplace and aligning their product portfolio, with wholesale order books showing improvement for the holiday season, indicating growing partner confidence. The company emphasized its commitment to building a more premium NIKE Direct experience and expanding distribution strategically, including a new partnership with Amazon. Looking beyond the immediate term, NIKE reiterated its ambition to return to sustainable growth and double-digit operating margins, leveraging its sport offense realignment and disciplined expense management.

Nike Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nike exhibits strong profitability with solid gross and net profit margins and good cash generation capabilities. However, revenue and stockholders' equity have declined, highlighting potential challenges that need addressing.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Nike's income statement shows strong profitability with a gross profit margin of approximately 42.7% and a net profit margin of 7.0% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, there is a noticeable decline in total revenue year-over-year by around 9.8%, affecting the overall revenue growth negatively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, indicating some operational challenges. Despite these, the company's margins remain strong, suggesting efficient cost management.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet highlights a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.83, suggesting a balanced financial leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is 24.4%, which shows good profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, there's a slight decrease in stockholders' equity compared to the previous year, which could be a concern if it continues. The equity ratio stands at 36.1%, indicating a solid position but room for improvement in equity compared to total assets.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The cash flow statement reflects a robust free cash flow of $3.27 billion in TTM with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.01, indicating a healthy conversion of profits into cash. However, the free cash flow has decreased compared to the previous year, suggesting potential pressure on cash generation. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15, underscoring strong cash generation capabilities.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue46.38B46.31B51.39B51.19B46.79B44.49B
Gross Profit19.67B19.79B22.62B21.68B21.58B19.91B
EBITDA4.68B3.88B7.76B7.19B7.66B7.69B
Net Income3.22B3.22B5.70B5.07B6.05B5.73B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets36.58B36.58B38.11B37.53B40.32B37.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.15B9.15B11.58B10.68B13.00B13.48B
Total Debt11.02B11.02B11.95B12.14B12.63B12.81B
Total Liabilities23.37B23.37B23.68B23.53B25.04B24.97B
Stockholders Equity13.21B13.21B14.43B14.00B15.28B12.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.27B3.27B6.62B4.87B4.43B5.96B
Operating Cash Flow3.70B3.70B7.43B5.84B5.19B6.66B
Investing Cash Flow-275.00M-275.00M894.00M564.00M-1.52B-3.80B
Financing Cash Flow-5.82B-5.82B-5.89B-7.45B-4.84B-1.46B

Nike Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price71.22
Price Trends
50DMA
74.74
Negative
100DMA
69.22
Positive
200DMA
69.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.06
Positive
RSI
36.55
Neutral
STOCH
15.75
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NKE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 71.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.71, below the 50-day MA of 74.74, and above the 200-day MA of 69.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.75 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NKE.

Nike Risk Analysis

Nike disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nike reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nike Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
8.34B25.2411.66%18.66%183.98%
71
Outperform
16.50B17.0840.11%15.43%24.20%
69
Neutral
2.30B28.0417.84%1.41%-2.83%
68
Neutral
4.23B20.8116.64%2.04%-71.52%
66
Neutral
$105.27B32.9423.29%2.25%-9.70%-42.38%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NKE
Nike
71.22
-16.23
-18.56%
CROX
Crocs
77.49
-69.91
-47.43%
DECK
Deckers Outdoor
111.23
-46.03
-29.27%
SKX
Skechers USA
63.13
-6.10
-8.81%
WWW
Wolverine World Wide
28.35
11.56
68.85%
BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc
45.34
-4.49
-9.01%

Nike Corporate Events

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Nike Adjusts Product Purchase Obligations in Annual Report
Neutral
Jul 28, 2025

Nike, Inc. has corrected an error in its Annual Report regarding product purchase obligations as of May 31, 2025. The obligations were overstated and have been adjusted to approximately $5 billion, all payable within the next 12 months, impacting the company’s financial disclosures.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Nike Nominates Jørgen Vig Knudstorp to Board
Positive
Jun 25, 2025

On June 24, 2025, NIKE, Inc. announced the nomination of Jørgen Vig Knudstorp for election to its Board of Directors at the upcoming annual meeting on September 9, 2025. Knudstorp, with extensive experience in brand and digital marketing, strategy, and consumer products from his tenure at LEGO, is expected to contribute significantly to NIKE’s growth and brand storytelling initiatives.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Nike Board Member Cathleen Benko Announces Retirement
Neutral
Jun 18, 2025

On June 13, 2025, Cathleen Benko announced her retirement from Nike‘s Board of Directors, effective at the company’s 2025 annual shareholder meeting. Her departure is amicable, with no disagreements with the company, and she is commended for her contributions over the past seven years.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 19, 2025