Nicolet Bankshares (NIC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.29B
• Dividend Yield: 0.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 127.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 6.21%
• EPS Growth: 19.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 2.73
• Shares Outstanding: 21,511,444
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 153,458
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 127,190
• PEG Ratio: 0.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.87
• 1Y Price Target: $179.50
• Price Target Upside: 17.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 11.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $619.85M

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $174.00 ▲(13.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (rapid 2025 growth, improved margins, conservative leverage) and supportive corporate developments (transformative merger expansion and enhanced capital return via buyback). Technicals are moderately positive but not strong, and valuation is reasonable with limited support from a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative leverage & growing equity

Nicolet’s materially lower debt-to-equity and steadily rising equity base provide durable capital capacity for loan growth, deposit funding shocks, and regulatory cushions. A stronger equity footing supports disciplined M&A, buybacks, and preserves flexibility through economic cycles.

Sharp 2025 revenue and margin improvement

The rapid revenue acceleration and higher net margins in 2025 reflect scalable income generation and operating leverage. Sustained higher margins and improved ROE strengthen internal cash generation capacity, underpinning dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment into the franchise.

Transformative merger expands scale and deposits

The MidWestOne acquisition materially increases assets, loans and deposits, extending geographic reach and branch density. Greater scale should enable cost synergies, broader fee income, and improved funding diversity—supporting durable franchise growth if integration executes well.

Negative Factors

Historical margin volatility

Pronounced year-to-year margin swings indicate sensitivity to interest rate and asset-yield dynamics. That variability can cause earnings unpredictability, complicate long-range planning, and reduce the reliability of cash flows used for buybacks, dividends, or M&A funding.

Merger integration and systems conversion risk

The large, transformative MidWestOne integration requires systems migration, governance changes, and cultural alignment. Execution missteps could disrupt deposits, lending pipelines, or customer relationships and incur incremental costs, pressuring near-to-medium-term operational results.

Free cash flow growth variability

A recent decline in free cash flow growth reduces the margin for error when absorbing integration expenses or credit stress. Persistent FCF variability would constrain discretionary capital allocation and limit the company's ability to sustain aggressive buybacks or unexpected capital needs.

Nicolet Bankshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Nicolet National Bank that provides banking products and services for businesses and individuals. The company accepts checking, savings, and money market accounts; various certificates of deposit; and individual retirement accounts. It also offers commercial loans, including commercial, industrial, and business loans and lines of credit; commercial real estate loans; agricultural (AG) production and AG real estate loans; commercial real estate investment real estate loans; construction and land development loans; residential real estate loans, such as residential first lien and junior lien mortgages, home equity loans, lines of credit, and residential construction loans; and consumer loans. In addition, the company provides cash management, international banking, personal brokerage, safe deposit boxes, and trust and fiduciary services, as well as wealth management and retirement plan services. Further, it offers mortgage refinancing; online services, such as commercial, retail, and trust online banking; automated bill payment, mobile banking deposits and account access, and remote deposit capture services; and other services consisting of wire transfers, debit cards, credit cards, pre-paid gift cards, direct deposits, and official bank checks, as well as facilitates crop insurance products. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 52 branches throughout Wisconsin and Michigan. The company was formerly known as Green Bay Financial Corporation and changed its name to Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. in March 2002. Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

How the Company Makes Money

Nicolet Bankshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investment securities, as well as non-interest income derived from fees for various banking services. Key revenue streams include interest from residential and commercial mortgages, consumer loans, and business loans, which are typically higher-yielding assets. Additionally, the bank earns fees from services such as ATM transactions, account maintenance, and wealth management services. Partnerships with local businesses and community organizations also enhance its customer base and service offerings, contributing to its overall earnings. The company may also see revenue growth through strategic acquisitions, expanding its footprint and customer relationships.

Nicolet Bankshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamentals led by sharply accelerating revenue growth in 2025 (~127%), improved profitability (net margin ~27%), and a strengthening return profile (ROE ~12%). Balance sheet leverage is conservative (debt-to-equity ~0.11). Main offsets are historical margin volatility and some variability in free cash flow growth (slightly negative in 2025 after a rebound in 2024).

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been strong and consistent over the cycle, accelerating materially in 2025 (annual revenue growth of ~127%) after solid growth in 2023–2024 (~25% each). Profitability also improved meaningfully in 2025, with net margin rising to ~27% (from ~24% in 2024 and ~15% in 2023) and operating profitability strengthening as well. The main weakness is margin volatility across years (notably the 2023 dip versus 2022), which suggests earnings power can swing meaningfully with the rate/credit environment.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is conservative and improving, with debt-to-equity down to ~0.11 in 2025 from ~0.16 in 2023 and well below the elevated 2022 level (~0.56). Equity has steadily grown (to ~$1.26B in 2025 from ~$0.54B in 2020), supporting balance-sheet capacity. Returns on equity have also trended higher, reaching ~12.0% in 2025 (vs ~10.6% in 2024 and ~5.9% in 2023). The key watch-out is that total assets have expanded substantially over time, which can increase sensitivity to credit quality and funding conditions even if reported debt levels are low.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow rose to ~$154M in 2025 (from ~$134M in 2024 and ~$108M in 2023), and free cash flow matched net income in 2025 (free cash flow to net income of 1.0), indicating good earnings-to-cash conversion. However, free cash flow growth turned slightly negative in 2025 (~-5.5%) after a strong rebound in 2024, pointing to some variability in cash generation year to year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	552.61M	519.42M	416.85M	332.07M	239.05M
Gross Profit	383.88M	345.27M	272.86M	286.62M	210.55M
EBITDA	186.96M	172.08M	105.03M	147.67M	94.98M
Net Income	150.69M	124.06M	61.52M	94.26M	60.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.19B	8.80B	8.47B	8.76B	7.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	660.23M	975.76M	1.29B	1.08B	1.54B
Total Debt	134.86M	161.39M	166.93M	542.34M	216.91M
Total Liabilities	7.93B	7.62B	7.43B	7.79B	6.80B
Stockholders Equity	1.26B	1.17B	1.04B	972.53M	891.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	153.53M	117.23M	89.77M	105.16M	84.86M
Operating Cash Flow	153.53M	133.75M	107.97M	117.40M	97.65M
Investing Cash Flow	-230.75M	-288.44M	591.46M	-516.36M	-370.60M
Financing Cash Flow	201.40M	199.30M	-362.73M	-41.60M	65.38M

Nicolet Bankshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 152.76
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NIC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 152.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 153.77, above the 50-day MA of 139.91, and above the 200-day MA of 130.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NIC.

Nicolet Bankshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NIC	78 Outperform	$3.29B	15.62	12.25%	0.99%	6.21%	19.23%
FCF	76 Outperform	$1.82B	11.92	9.71%	3.11%	3.80%	-6.23%
OFG	71 Outperform	$1.73B	8.75	14.82%	2.73%	3.98%	6.75%
HTH	68 Neutral	$2.23B	14.17	7.60%	2.08%	5.21%	53.15%
NWBI	68 Neutral	$1.82B	13.48	7.22%	6.48%	15.86%	16.50%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Nicolet Bankshares Corporate Events

Nicolet Bankshares Closes Transformative MidWestOne Merger Deal

On February 13, 2026, Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. completed its previously announced merger with MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc., issuing approximately 6.6 million shares of Nicolet common stock in an all-stock transaction that valued the shares at $155.19 each based on the NYSE closing price that day. MidWestOne merged into Nicolet, MidWestOne Bank was combined into Nicolet National Bank and will initially operate as a division until an August 2026 systems conversion, after which more than 50 MidWestOne locations will convert to the Nicolet brand and digital platform, significantly extending Nicolet’s footprint in Iowa, the Twin Cities, western Wisconsin and Denver.

Based on initial data, the deal adds roughly $6 billion in assets, lifting Nicolet’s balance sheet to about $15 billion in total assets, $11 billion in loans and $13 billion in deposits, underscoring a major step in the company’s disciplined growth strategy. Governance was also reshaped, with the board set at 12 members as four former MidWestOne directors joined eight Nicolet incumbents while seven prior Nicolet directors stepped down under the merger terms, changes that are expected to integrate MidWestOne’s leadership into Nicolet’s oversight structure while preserving the community banking model and local decision-making emphasized by management.

The most recent analyst rating on (NIC) stock is a Buy with a $185.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nicolet Bankshares stock, see the NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nicolet Shareholders Approve MidwestOne Merger and Expansion

On January 20, 2026, Nicolet Bankshares’ compensation committee approved performance-based equity awards totaling 101,000 restricted stock units, with an aggregate grant date value of $13 million, for key executives and senior managers involved in the integration of MidwestOne Financial Group, Inc., structured to vest over a three-year period ending December 31, 2028 based on deal closing, relative return on average assets, and cumulative earnings per share. At a special meeting on January 26, 2026, Nicolet shareholders approved the merger agreement with MidwestOne, an increase in authorized common shares from 30 million to 60 million, and an adjournment proposal that ultimately was not needed, while the board separately authorized a $60 million increase to the share repurchase program; with all regulatory approvals in hand as of January 22, 2026, the company targeted February 13, 2026 for completion of the MidwestOne merger, underscoring its commitment to scale, capital management, and performance-based integration incentives for leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (NIC) stock is a Buy with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nicolet Bankshares stock, see the NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nicolet Bankshares Reports Record 2025 Earnings and Dividend

On January 20, 2026, Nicolet Bankshares reported record results for 2025, with net income rising to $151 million from $124 million in 2024 and diluted earnings per share climbing 21.5% to $9.78. The company highlighted strong profitability metrics, including a 1.68% return on assets, an 18.53% return on average tangible common equity and a net interest margin of 3.76%, supported by a $497 million, or 7%, increase in core deposits and 3% loan growth during the year. Fourth-quarter 2025 net income was $40 million, slightly below the prior quarter but up from the same period in 2024, as lower funding costs from interest rate cuts helped offset modest pressure on asset yields. Asset quality remained solid, with nonperforming assets at 0.35% of total assets and negligible net charge-offs, while total assets reached $9.2 billion and total capital increased to $1.3 billion at year-end. Against this backdrop, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share, payable March 16, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 2, 2026, and management positioned the strong 2025 performance as a foundation for integrating its proposed merger with MidWestOne Financial Group and reinforcing its standing among top-performing community banks.

The most recent analyst rating on (NIC) stock is a Buy with a $142.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nicolet Bankshares stock, see the NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nicolet Bankshares and MidWestOne correct merger disclosures

On December 19, 2025, Nicolet Bankshares and MidWestOne Financial Group filed a joint proxy statement-prospectus with the SEC related to their planned merger, later discovering an error in the “Golden Parachute Compensation” table for MidWestOne’s named executive officers. The companies clarified that while the first three columns of the table were accurate, the “Total” column was incorrect and have now provided corrected estimated merger-related compensation figures that will be subject to a non-binding advisory vote by MidWestOne shareholders, underscoring a focus on transparency around executive payouts tied to the transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (NIC) stock is a Buy with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nicolet Bankshares stock, see the NIC Stock Forecast page.