Nicolet Bankshares (NIC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.38B
• Dividend Yield: 0.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 127.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 6.21%
• EPS Growth: 19.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 952
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 2.73
• Shares Outstanding: 21,511,444
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 153,458
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 127,190
• PEG Ratio: 0.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.45
• 1Y Price Target: $179.50
• Price Target Upside: 13.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 11.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $619.85M

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $162.00 ▲(2.52% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 01/27/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 01/27/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability and low leverage) and supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is reasonable but the dividend yield is modest, while corporate events add upside potential through the approved merger and expanded buyback.

Positive Factors

High Profitability & Margins

Sustained high net and operating margins indicate durable underwriting and cost discipline across lending and fee businesses. Strong margins provide ongoing internal capital for investments, dividends and M&A, and help absorb cyclical NIM pressure without eroding long-term profitability.

Conservative Balance Sheet

Very low leverage and a stable equity base reduce funding and solvency risk, supporting regulatory flexibility for buybacks, dividends or acquisitions. This capital strength underpins resilience to credit cycles and funds strategic growth without overreliance on external debt.

Scale & Capital Actions from MidwestOne Merger

Approved merger plus expanded buyback and exec integration incentives materially increases scale, deposits and cross-sell potential. Greater scale can lower operating leverage, expand earning assets, and strengthen long-term revenue diversification versus standalone community-bank peers.

Negative Factors

Weak Operating Cash Flow Conversion

Very low conversion of accounting earnings into operating cash suggests earnings may include non-cash items or timing mismatches. Over time this can constrain cash available for dividends, buybacks, and merger integration costs, raising funding pressure despite strong reported profits.

Modest Organic Growth

Subdued organic revenue and loan growth imply limited internal drivers of long-term EPS expansion absent margin expansion or acquisitions. Reliance on M&A to materially lift growth increases execution risk and could compress returns if scale synergies are not realized.

Merger Disclosure & Governance Risks

A disclosure correction on executive merger payouts signals control and governance lapses that may erode investor trust. Combined with increased authorized shares and sizable RSU grants, this raises potential dilution and oversight questions during a complex integration period.

Nicolet Bankshares Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Nicolet National Bank that provides banking products and services for businesses and individuals. The company accepts checking, savings, and money market accounts; various certificates of deposit; and individual retirement accounts. It also offers commercial loans, including commercial, industrial, and business loans and lines of credit; commercial real estate loans; agricultural (AG) production and AG real estate loans; commercial real estate investment real estate loans; construction and land development loans; residential real estate loans, such as residential first lien and junior lien mortgages, home equity loans, lines of credit, and residential construction loans; and consumer loans. In addition, the company provides cash management, international banking, personal brokerage, safe deposit boxes, and trust and fiduciary services, as well as wealth management and retirement plan services. Further, it offers mortgage refinancing; online services, such as commercial, retail, and trust online banking; automated bill payment, mobile banking deposits and account access, and remote deposit capture services; and other services consisting of wire transfers, debit cards, credit cards, pre-paid gift cards, direct deposits, and official bank checks, as well as facilitates crop insurance products. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 52 branches throughout Wisconsin and Michigan. The company was formerly known as Green Bay Financial Corporation and changed its name to Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. in March 2002. Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

How the Company Makes Money

Nicolet Bankshares generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and investment securities, as well as non-interest income derived from fees for various banking services. Key revenue streams include interest from residential and commercial mortgages, consumer loans, and business loans, which are typically higher-yielding assets. Additionally, the bank earns fees from services such as ATM transactions, account maintenance, and wealth management services. Partnerships with local businesses and community organizations also enhance its customer base and service offerings, contributing to its overall earnings. The company may also see revenue growth through strategic acquisitions, expanding its footprint and customer relationships.

Nicolet Bankshares Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and efficiency (net margin 26.54%; EBIT/EBITDA margins 32.98%/35.23%), supported by solid balance sheet leverage (debt-to-equity 0.11) and improving free cash flow (TTM FCF growth 7.83%). A key watch item is weak operating cash flow coverage versus net income (operating cash flow to net income ratio 0.02).

Income Statement

Nicolet Bankshares has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.67% and consistent improvement in profitability metrics. The gross profit margin is robust at 68.69%, and the net profit margin has increased to 26.54%, indicating efficient cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 32.98% and 35.23%, respectively, showcasing strong operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, reflecting prudent financial leverage. The return on equity stands at 12.17%, indicating effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a strong capital base. However, the decrease in total debt over the years highlights a cautious approach to leveraging.

Cash Flow

Nicolet Bankshares has shown a positive trend in cash flow metrics, with a free cash flow growth rate of 7.83% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.02, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.96, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	552.61M	519.42M	416.85M	332.07M	239.05M
Gross Profit	383.88M	345.27M	272.86M	286.62M	210.55M
EBITDA	186.96M	172.08M	105.03M	147.67M	94.98M
Net Income	150.69M	124.06M	61.52M	94.26M	60.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.19B	8.80B	8.47B	8.76B	7.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	660.23M	975.76M	1.29B	1.08B	1.54B
Total Debt	134.86M	161.39M	166.93M	542.34M	216.91M
Total Liabilities	7.93B	7.62B	7.43B	7.79B	6.80B
Stockholders Equity	1.26B	1.17B	1.04B	972.53M	891.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	117.23M	89.77M	105.16M	84.86M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	133.75M	107.97M	117.40M	97.65M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-288.44M	591.46M	-516.36M	-370.60M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	199.30M	-362.73M	-41.60M	65.38M

Nicolet Bankshares Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 158.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NIC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 158.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 153.45, above the 50-day MA of 139.50, and above the 200-day MA of 130.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NIC.

Nicolet Bankshares Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NIC	80 Outperform	$3.38B	16.05	12.25%	0.99%	6.21%	19.23%
FCF	76 Outperform	$1.84B	12.08	9.71%	3.11%	3.80%	-6.23%
OFG	71 Outperform	$1.82B	9.02	14.82%	2.73%	3.98%	6.75%
HTH	68 Neutral	$2.25B	14.34	7.60%	2.08%	5.21%	53.15%
NWBI	68 Neutral	$1.85B	13.73	7.22%	6.48%	15.86%	16.50%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Nicolet Bankshares Corporate Events

Nicolet Shareholders Approve MidwestOne Merger and Expansion

On January 20, 2026, Nicolet Bankshares’ compensation committee approved performance-based equity awards totaling 101,000 restricted stock units, with an aggregate grant date value of $13 million, for key executives and senior managers involved in the integration of MidwestOne Financial Group, Inc., structured to vest over a three-year period ending December 31, 2028 based on deal closing, relative return on average assets, and cumulative earnings per share. At a special meeting on January 26, 2026, Nicolet shareholders approved the merger agreement with MidwestOne, an increase in authorized common shares from 30 million to 60 million, and an adjournment proposal that ultimately was not needed, while the board separately authorized a $60 million increase to the share repurchase program; with all regulatory approvals in hand as of January 22, 2026, the company targeted February 13, 2026 for completion of the MidwestOne merger, underscoring its commitment to scale, capital management, and performance-based integration incentives for leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (NIC) stock is a Buy with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nicolet Bankshares stock, see the NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nicolet Bankshares Reports Record 2025 Earnings and Dividend

On January 20, 2026, Nicolet Bankshares reported record results for 2025, with net income rising to $151 million from $124 million in 2024 and diluted earnings per share climbing 21.5% to $9.78. The company highlighted strong profitability metrics, including a 1.68% return on assets, an 18.53% return on average tangible common equity and a net interest margin of 3.76%, supported by a $497 million, or 7%, increase in core deposits and 3% loan growth during the year. Fourth-quarter 2025 net income was $40 million, slightly below the prior quarter but up from the same period in 2024, as lower funding costs from interest rate cuts helped offset modest pressure on asset yields. Asset quality remained solid, with nonperforming assets at 0.35% of total assets and negligible net charge-offs, while total assets reached $9.2 billion and total capital increased to $1.3 billion at year-end. Against this backdrop, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share, payable March 16, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 2, 2026, and management positioned the strong 2025 performance as a foundation for integrating its proposed merger with MidWestOne Financial Group and reinforcing its standing among top-performing community banks.

The most recent analyst rating on (NIC) stock is a Buy with a $142.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nicolet Bankshares stock, see the NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nicolet Bankshares and MidWestOne correct merger disclosures

On December 19, 2025, Nicolet Bankshares and MidWestOne Financial Group filed a joint proxy statement-prospectus with the SEC related to their planned merger, later discovering an error in the “Golden Parachute Compensation” table for MidWestOne’s named executive officers. The companies clarified that while the first three columns of the table were accurate, the “Total” column was incorrect and have now provided corrected estimated merger-related compensation figures that will be subject to a non-binding advisory vote by MidWestOne shareholders, underscoring a focus on transparency around executive payouts tied to the transaction.

The most recent analyst rating on (NIC) stock is a Buy with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nicolet Bankshares stock, see the NIC Stock Forecast page.

Nicolet Bankshares Declares Quarterly Dividend Announcement

On November 25, 2025, Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share on its common stock, payable on December 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 8, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may impact its financial position and attractiveness to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (NIC) stock is a Buy with a $161.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nicolet Bankshares stock, see the NIC Stock Forecast page.