First Commonwealth Financial Corp. (FCF)
NYSE:FCF
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First Commonwealth
(NYSE:FCF)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$20.00
â–²(6.78% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (profitability, improved leverage, and a strong 2025 cash flow rebound) and a constructive earnings outlook with continued capital returns. Valuation is supportive, while near-term technical signals and guidance for a short-term NIM dip temper the overall rating.
Positive Factors
De‑risked balance sheet
Ending 2025 with a low debt-to-equity (~0.26) and steady equity growth materially strengthens solvency and funding optionality. This durable capital profile increases resilience to credit or rate shocks, supports lending capacity, and underpins ongoing capital returns and strategic flexibility.
Negative Factors
Margin pressure from reinvestment
Reinvesting loan sale proceeds into materially lower-yielding securities and the near-term NIM dip are structural margin headwinds. Over multiple quarters this reduces net interest income sensitivity, limits NIM upside absent asset repricing, and can depress earnings power while securities yield outlasts the sale timing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
De‑risked balance sheet
Ending 2025 with a low debt-to-equity (~0.26) and steady equity growth materially strengthens solvency and funding optionality. This durable capital profile increases resilience to credit or rate shocks, supports lending capacity, and underpins ongoing capital returns and strategic flexibility.
Read all positive factors
First Commonwealth (FCF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.91B
Dividend Yield3.11%
Average Volume (3M)618.11K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.4
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth3.80%
EPS Growth-6.23%
CountryUS
Employees1,538
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.43
Shares Outstanding102,206,150
10 Day Avg. Volume632,950
30 Day Avg. Volume618,105
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.99
Price to Book (P/B)1.12
Price to Sales (P/S)2.38
P/FCF Ratio10.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.25Price Target Upside8.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$559.15M
First Commonwealth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides various consumer and commercial banking services in the United States. Its consumer services include personal checking accounts, interest-earning checking accounts, sa...
How the Company Makes Money
First Commonwealth generates revenue through various key streams primarily centered around interest income and non-interest income. Interest income is earned from loans and mortgages issued to customers, which typically constitutes the largest por...
First Commonwealth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple clear strengths — beats on earnings, meaningful NIM expansion, strong net interest income growth (+$47.2M YoY), healthy loan and deposit growth, active buybacks, and resilient fee income despite Durbin headwinds. Key near-term risks include an expected small NIM dip in Q1 2026 (5–10 bps), modest increases in NPLs and a nearly‑resolved dealer floor plan charge, some expense pressure from hiring and one‑offs, and potential reinvestment of held-for-sale loan proceeds into lower-yielding securities. Overall, the positives around core profitability, capital generation, and diversified revenue sources outweigh the limited and mostly manageable headwinds.Positive Updates
Beat on Core EPS and Strong Profitability Metrics
Core EPS of $0.43 in Q4 (beat consensus); 2025 core EPS of $1.53 vs consensus $1.40 (Dec 2024) and near the highest revised midyear consensus of $1.54. Q4 core ROA improved to 1.45% and core ROTCE improved 93 bps to 15.83%.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Margin Pressure Expected
Management expects a near-term NIM dip in Q1 2026 as variable-rate loans fully reflect December rate cuts; Q1 dip estimated ~5–10 bps with NIM guidance drifting up to ~4.0% by end of 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Beat on Core EPS and Strong Profitability Metrics
Core EPS of $0.43 in Q4 (beat consensus); 2025 core EPS of $1.53 vs consensus $1.40 (Dec 2024) and near the highest revised midyear consensus of $1.54. Q4 core ROA improved to 1.45% and core ROTCE improved 93 bps to 15.83%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to a near-term NIM dip in Q1 2026 of roughly 5–10 bps as variable-rate loans fully reflect late-2025 rate cuts, then gradual quarterly improvement (roughly +~5 bps/quarter) to finish 2026 around 4.00%; charge-off guidance remains 25–30 bps; provision in Q4 was $7.0M (down $4.3M), core noninterest income is expected to be relatively flat in 2026, and core noninterest expense growth is expected to be limited to about 3% year‑over‑year (Q4 core noninterest expense $74.3M, +$1.7M QoQ). Other reported metrics to frame guidance: Q4 core EPS $0.43 (2025 core EPS $1.53 vs. Dec‑2024 consensus $1.40), Q4 NIM 3.98%, Q4 core ROA 1.45%, Q4 core efficiency 52.8%, average deposits +2.8% annualized QoQ (avg deposit cost 1.83%, -1 bp), average loans +1.2% QoQ, 2025 NII $427.5M (+$47.2M YoY), loan growth 8.2% annualized (5.0% ex‑Center Bank), average deposit growth 6.1% (4.2% ex‑Center Bank), NPLs 94 bps (up 4 bps; $98M NPAs including $39.2M SBA of which $31.2M govt‑guaranteed = 32 bps guaranteed), Q4 repurchases $23.1M (1.4M shares at $15.94; 2.1M shares repurchased in 2025), remaining repurchase capacity $22.7M plus $25M newly authorized (repurchase cadence capped at roughly $25M–$30M/quarter and price‑sensitive), held‑for‑sale commercial loans ~$225M (sale proceeds likely reinvested into securities at ~1.5% lower yields; management modeled reinvestment near ~4.5% with some opportunities in the high‑4s), securities duration ~4.28 years, and management expects to sustain operating leverage while growing fee income (fee income ≈18% of revenue).First Commonwealth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 729.44M | 699.69M | 626.61M | 428.66M | 400.60M |
| Gross Profit | 493.12M | 448.95M | 467.47M | 389.82M | 386.67M |
| EBITDA | 204.68M | 184.01M | 201.66M | 170.74M | 184.26M |
| Net Income | 152.30M | 142.57M | 157.06M | 128.18M | 138.26M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.37B | 11.58B | 11.46B | 9.81B | 9.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 103.28M | 1.28B | 1.17B | 916.90M | 1.44B |
| Total Debt | 452.33M | 343.12M | 784.59M | 553.92M | 320.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 10.81B | 10.18B | 10.15B | 8.75B | 8.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.55B | 1.41B | 1.31B | 1.05B | 1.11B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 171.36M | 113.92M | 128.72M | 140.21M | 154.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 187.54M | 129.46M | 150.76M | 151.41M | 165.05M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -388.14M | -121.72M | -574.27M | -588.79M | -565.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 247.64M | -21.32M | 416.26M | 196.25M | 439.05M |
First Commonwealth Technical Analysis
Positive
18.73
Price Trends
17.78
Positive
17.29
Positive
16.86
Positive
Market Momentum
0.31
Negative
70.98
Negative
92.11
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.50, above the 50-day MA of 17.78, and above the 200-day MA of 16.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.98 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.11 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FCF.
First Commonwealth Risk Analysis
First Commonwealth disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. First Commonwealth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
First Commonwealth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $2.07B | 11.28 | 22.83% | 0.27% | 7.80% | 19.38% | |
76 Outperform | $1.82B | 13.12 | 16.68% | 2.65% | 6.09% | 11.49% | |
72 Outperform | $1.91B | 11.38 | 10.05% | 3.11% | 3.80% | -6.23% | |
71 Outperform | $1.84B | 9.31 | 15.21% | 2.73% | 3.98% | 6.75% | |
68 Neutral | $1.98B | 13.97 | 7.18% | 6.48% | 15.86% | 16.50% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
FCF
First Commonwealth
18.73
5.06
37.06%
CHCO
City Holding Company
126.88
18.58
17.16%
CASH
Pathward Financial
94.91
25.70
37.13%
NWBI
Northwest Bancshares
13.56
3.22
31.12%
OFG
OFG Bancorp
42.74
8.68
25.47%
First Commonwealth Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
First Commonwealth announces leadership change and boosts capital returns
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 27, 2026, First Commonwealth announced that Executive Vice President and Business Integration Group Manager Norman Montgomery plans to retire on May 1, 2026, marking an upcoming leadership transition in a key operational role. The compa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.