Norsk Hydro (NHYDY)
OTHER OTC:NHYDY
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Norsk Hydro
(OTC:NHYDY)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(4.44% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
Overall score reflects mid-cycle fundamentals with cash flow volatility and modest profitability as the main constraints, partially offset by a supportive technical uptrend. Earnings call guidance is balanced (cost savings and hedging vs segment pressure and near-term headwinds), while valuation is less supportive given the negative P/E and only modest yield.
Positive Factors
Integrated value chain
Hydro’s vertical integration across bauxite, alumina, primary metal and downstream conversion captures more of the value chain, smoothing margin swings between segments and enabling commercial optimization. This structural positioning supports resilience and margin recovery across cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Alumina price pressure
A structural near-term surplus in global alumina and falling PAX depresses upstream margins, directly squeezing Bauxite & Alumina profitability. Given alumina’s central role in feedstock costs and pricing dynamics, margin pressure can persist across the next several quarters until supply tightens or demand improves.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated value chain
Hydro’s vertical integration across bauxite, alumina, primary metal and downstream conversion captures more of the value chain, smoothing margin swings between segments and enabling commercial optimization. This structural positioning supports resilience and margin recovery across cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.60B
Dividend Yield2.82%
Average Volume (3M)45.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.0
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth1.50%
EPS Growth-29.44%
CountryUS
Employees32,614
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAluminum
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.12
Shares Outstanding1,978,489,100
10 Day Avg. Volume40,986
30 Day Avg. Volume45,203
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.31
Price to Book (P/B)1.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.74
P/FCF Ratio13.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap10.67
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.44
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.00B
Norsk Hydro Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Norsk Hydro ASA engages in the power production, bauxite extraction, alumina refining, aluminium smelting, remelting, and recycling activities; and provision of extruded solutions worldwide. It operates through Bauxite & Alumina, Aluminium Metal, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Norsk Hydro makes money mainly by producing and selling aluminum products and, to a lesser extent, by generating and selling electricity. Its core revenue streams include (1) upstream and primary aluminum: revenues from selling primary aluminum (e...
Norsk Hydro Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 13, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: operational strengths and solid cash generation (adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, RoaCE above target, upstream production above nameplate, strong energy production and strategic power contracts) and clear strategic progress (Illvatn investment, hedging, cost reductions, dividend proposal). These positives are, however, tempered by significant near-term headwinds—lower revenues (-14% YoY), large adjusting items that produced a reported loss, sharp YoY deterioration in Bauxite & Alumina EBITDA, continued weakness in Extrusions and Metal Markets, and notable FX/derivative losses. The company delivered resilient adjusted performance and improved full-year EBITDA, but the pronounced segment-level pressures and accounting adjustments create a balanced risk/return outlook in the near term.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA of ~NOK 5.6 billion in Q4 and full-year adjusted EBITDA up NOK 2.6 billion (from NOK 26.3bn to NOK 28.9bn, +9.9% year-over-year). Free cash flow of NOK 4.6 billion in Q4 and net debt decreased by NOK 3.9 billion since Q3.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Reported Losses
Revenues fell ~14% year-over-year to ~NOK 47 billion in Q4. Reported EBITDA almost NOK 2 billion vs adjusted EBITDA NOK 5.6 billion due to ~NOK 3.6 billion of adjusting items, producing reported net loss of NOK 2.2 billion in Q4 (adjusted net income NOK 1.7 billion).
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA of ~NOK 5.6 billion in Q4 and full-year adjusted EBITDA up NOK 2.6 billion (from NOK 26.3bn to NOK 28.9bn, +9.9% year-over-year). Free cash flow of NOK 4.6 billion in Q4 and net debt decreased by NOK 3.9 billion since Q3.
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Company Guidance
Guidance for Q1 2026: Bauxite & Alumina — fixed and raw material costs expected to remain stable while production volumes decline seasonally (fewer operating days and planned maintenance) and trading normalizes; Aluminum Metal — 70% of primary production booked at USD 2,803/tonne, 40% of premiums booked at USD 478/tonne with realized premium expected at USD 380–430/tonne, raw material expenses forecast to rise NOK 100–200 million, fixed costs NOK 50–150 million and sales volumes expected to increase; Metal Markets — stable recycling results and commercial adjusted EBITDA for 2026 (ex. currency/inventory valuation) guided to NOK 200–400 million; Extrusions — external Q1 volumes +1% Europe / −1% North America, Hydro expects Europe largely stable and North America slightly down, margins broadly flat and metal effect broadly flat vs Q1 ’25 (full‑year 2025 metal effect ~NOK 700 million); Energy — Q1 production expected to fall below normal seasonal levels due to maintenance, prices seasonally higher but price‑area gains to decline; and corporately the strategic workforce reduction (~850 white‑collar roles) should deliver roughly NOK 1 billion of annual savings from 2026, Illvatn investment is gross NOK 2.5 billion (net ~NOK 1.2 billion), and the Board has proposed a NOK 3/share dividend (NOK 5.9 billion, 60% of adjusted net income) while maintaining an adjusted net debt target of ~NOK 25 billion (Q4 adj. net debt NOK 18.2 billion).Norsk Hydro Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 201.26B | 207.97B | 203.63B | 193.62B | 207.93B | 149.65B |
| Gross Profit | 60.54B | 64.53B | 74.29B | 70.08B | 78.56B | 52.97B |
| EBITDA | 24.40B | 27.55B | 22.19B | 18.27B | 42.33B | 27.50B |
| Net Income | 6.12B | 6.72B | 5.79B | 3.58B | 24.15B | 12.16B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 206.93B | 208.30B | 207.37B | 206.46B | 198.62B | 174.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 22.32B | 27.75B | 16.77B | 26.48B | 31.70B | 26.57B |
| Total Debt | 33.75B | 36.57B | 11.00M | 954.00M | 32.77B | 28.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 96.92B | 101.20B | 99.92B | 99.28B | 90.82B | 86.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 102.51B | 99.84B | 101.46B | 100.58B | 102.45B | 84.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.81B | 11.73B | 1.80B | 8.58B | 19.79B | 4.66B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.44B | 23.31B | 15.36B | 22.22B | 29.39B | 10.68B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -16.11B | -17.91B | -12.92B | -20.76B | -10.56B | -4.68B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -9.21B | -3.72B | -12.56B | -6.70B | -13.25B | -4.37B |
Norsk Hydro Technical Analysis
Positive
11.49
Price Trends
9.77
Positive
8.85
Positive
7.71
Positive
Market Momentum
0.53
Negative
59.30
Neutral
63.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NHYDY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.49, above the 50-day MA of 9.77, and above the 200-day MA of 7.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NHYDY.
Norsk Hydro Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $16.53B | 10.29 | 16.13% | 0.75% | 0.51% | 17.91% | |
68 Neutral | $4.36B | 4.18 | 47.75% | ― | 20.15% | 583.93% | |
64 Neutral | $21.60B | 12.04 | 6.07% | 2.82% | 1.50% | -29.44% | |
64 Neutral | $2.84B | 7.83 | 18.68% | 2.64% | 20.84% | 247.80% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $5.84B | 88.30 | 5.54% | ― | 13.85% | -87.79% | |
56 Neutral | $11.84B | -100.09 | -5.04% | ― | 35.12% | -26.93% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
NHYDY
Norsk Hydro
11.05
5.83
111.81%
AA
Alcoa
62.63
37.84
152.62%
CENX
Century Aluminum
58.98
42.60
260.07%
KALU
Kaiser Aluminum
173.72
106.61
158.87%
CSTM
Constellium
32.01
20.97
189.95%
MP
MP Materials
66.63
41.43
164.40%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.