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Anglo American (NGLOY)
OTHER OTC:NGLOY
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Anglo American
(OTC:NGLOY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$24.00
▲(10.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/23/26
The score is held back mainly by pressured financial performance (revenue declines and recent net losses), partly cushioned by resilient operating cash flow. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, and the earnings call was broadly constructive on cost-out, deleveraging, and merger progress, though De Beers and execution/regulatory risks remain. Valuation is helped by an unusually high dividend yield despite loss-driven negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & deleveraging
Consistent operating cash flow and active deleveraging are durable strengths: reducing net debt by $2.0bn to $8.6bn while sustaining ~$1.4bn attributable free cash flow improves financial flexibility, funds sustaining/growth CapEx and supports portfolio actions without relying on volatile equity markets.
Simplified portfolio profitability
High-margin simplified-portfolio EBITDA and meeting copper/iron production guidance indicate a resilient earnings base. Durable margins (44%) across core commodities support cash flow stability and reinvestment capacity even if cyclical prices soften, anchoring medium-term financial performance.
Structural cost and efficiency actions
A multi-year cost-out program and head‑office transformation underpin sustainable margin improvement. Realizing $1.6bn of $1.8bn targeted savings and reducing overheads embeds a lower cost base, improving cash conversion and making the business more resilient to commodity cycles over the next 2–3 years.
Negative Factors
De Beers impairment & diamond weakness
A large impairment and negative EBITDA at De Beers reflect structural softness in rough-diamond demand and competitive disruption (lab‑grown, supply shifts). This reduces realizable exit value, complicates portfolio simplification and may force contingent/structured sale terms, limiting near-term proceeds and certainty.
Rising leverage and profitability pressure
Leverage has nearly doubled since 2021 while the company has swung to net losses, weakening balance-sheet flexibility. Higher debt ratios reduce room for cyclical shocks, constrain optionality for large investments or M&A, and increase sensitivity to commodity downturns over the medium term.
Merger regulatory & execution risk
The Anglo‑Teck merger is transformational and tied to a $4.5bn special dividend; outstanding approvals (China, South Korea) create execution risk. Delays or conditions could postpone strategic benefits, integration efficiencies and planned cash distributions, altering the company's medium-term capital plan.
Anglo American (NGLOY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$46.90B
Dividend Yield0.64%
Average Volume (3M)10.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth-25.45%
EPS Growth-169.04%
CountryUS
Employees55,542
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding2,356,100,600
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume10,634
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.25
Price to Book (P/B)2.60
Price to Sales (P/S)2.52
P/FCF Ratio27.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.00Price Target Upside19.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$20.42B
Anglo American Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAnglo American plc operates as a mining company worldwide. The company explores for rough and polished diamonds, copper, platinum group metals, metallurgical and thermal coal, and iron ore; and nickel, polyhalite, and manganese ores, as well as alloys. Anglo American plc was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyAnglo American primarily makes money by producing and selling mined commodities to industrial customers and commodity traders under a mix of longer-term offtake arrangements and spot/market-linked sales, with realized revenue driven by shipped volumes and prevailing commodity prices. Key revenue streams include: (1) Copper: revenue from the sale of copper concentrates and/or refined copper from its copper operations; earnings are influenced by copper prices, treatment/refining charges, and production volumes. (2) Iron ore: revenue from the sale of iron ore products (e.g., fines/lumps) from its iron ore operations; earnings depend on benchmark iron ore prices, product quality premiums/discounts, freight, and volumes. (3) Platinum group metals (PGMs): revenue from sales of PGMs (such as platinum, palladium, rhodium and associated base metals) typically marketed through specialized channels; profitability is sensitive to PGM basket prices and output. (4) Diamonds (De Beers): revenue from rough diamond sales, historically via regular sales events/contracted customers and other channels; earnings depend on diamond pricing and demand conditions. In addition, the company may generate smaller revenues from by-products (depending on the orebody), logistics and marketing activities, and other mining-related services where applicable. Across the group, earnings are also materially affected by operating costs (energy, labor, consumables), exchange rates (as commodities are generally priced in USD while many costs are local), royalties and taxes, sustaining and growth capital spending, and the performance of joint ventures or minority interests where operations are not wholly owned. Significant partnerships or customer arrangements are not uniformly disclosed at a level of detail for all products; if specific counterparties or contract terms are required, null.
Anglo American Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive strategic and operational picture: management delivered on production guidance, realized substantial cost savings and demonstrable deleveraging, and advanced a transformational merger with Teck that could create a major copper‑focused champion. Material negatives include two workplace fatalities, a significant impairment and ongoing market weakness at De Beers, operational incidents affecting steelmaking coal, and near‑term cost and grade headwinds at Collahuasi that lift 2026 unit costs. On balance, the positives—strong simplified portfolio performance, cash generation, portfolio monetizations (~$2.5bn realized) and merger progress—outweigh the negatives, though material execution and market risks remain (notably De Beers exit and remaining regulatory approvals).Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Transformation and Merger Progress
Announced merger with Teck to form 'Anglo Teck' with major regulatory approvals secured (including Investment Canada Act) and completion targeted in ~12-18 months; $4.5 billion special dividend expected to be payable around completion.
Strong Simplified Portfolio Financials
Simplified (go‑forward) portfolio delivered $6.9 billion EBITDA (up 9% year‑on‑year), a 44% EBITDA margin (up 2 percentage points) and underlying earnings of $1.6 billion; revenue for continuing operations rose ~4% despite a 4% drop in production.
Delivered Cost‑Out Program
Delivered $0.6 billion incremental savings in 2025 (ahead of $0.5 billion target), bringing realized savings to $1.6 billion of a committed $1.8 billion program; remaining ~$0.2 billion expected in 2026.
Deleveraging and Cash Generation
Net debt reduced by $2.0 billion to $8.6 billion (net debt/EBITDA 1.3x; excluding shareholder loans net debt $6.8 billion); sustaining attributable free cash flow of $1.4 billion and working capital inflow of $0.6 billion driven by inventory reduction at De Beers.
Operational Delivery in Copper and Iron Ore
Copper and premium iron ore met 2025 production guidance; Quellaveco throughput exceeded design and is positioned to produce ~300,000 tpa copper; short‑term lower‑risk growth of ~125,000 tpa copper expected as stripping at Collahuasi and Donoso 2 ramp up.
Capital Efficiency and Reduced CapEx
Continuing operations CapEx fell 16% to $3.3 billion (simplified portfolio CapEx ~$3.0 billion); 3‑year simplified portfolio CapEx guidance $2.6–3.1 billion per year and sustaining CapEx long‑term ~ $2 billion p.a.
Head Office Transformation and Productivity Actions
Head office transformation completed with a 21% headcount reduction; ongoing focus on embedding a cost culture and operational accountability to improve efficiency and drive further savings.
Portfolio Optimization Realized Proceeds
PGMs demerger and sell‑downs (Valterra residual 19.9% stake) raised ~ $2.5 billion, materially aiding deleveraging; sale processes underway for steelmaking coal, nickel (deal with MMG up to $0.5 billion) and an advanced, responsible exit process for De Beers.
Safety Metrics Improving (Despite Fatalities)
Total recordable injury frequency reached the lowest on record, with frequency rates down ~20% year‑on‑year, demonstrating progress in safety systems and frontline engagement (company reiterates zero harm goal).
Negative Updates
Workplace Fatalities
Despite improved injury frequency, the company reported two separate workplace fatalities in the first half (projects contractor fall in Minas‑Rio and an LHD accident in Unki), described as tragic and unacceptable.
De Beers Underperformance and Large Impairment
De Beers reported negative EBITDA of $0.5 billion in 2025 and a $2.3 billion impairment recognized within special items (carrying enterprise value $2.3 billion; Anglo's attributable share ~$1.9 billion) due to weak rough diamond prices, weak China demand and increased supply.
Discontinued Operations and Coal Incidents
Discontinued operations EBITDA only $0.1 billion (PGMs five months plus impacts from flooding), with steelmaking coal losses following incidents at Moranbah North and Grosvenor; net cash outflow from discontinued operations ~$0.7 billion for the year.
Collahuasi Grade Weakness and Production Impact
Production down ~4% year‑on‑year primarily due to lower ore grades and recoveries at Collahuasi while processing stockpiles; Collahuasi expected to go through a lower‑grade phase in 2026 with improvement from 2027.
Rising Copper Unit Cost Guidance
2026 copper unit cost guidance increased to ~ $1.72/lb from $1.50/lb in 2025 (≈+14.7%), driven by stronger producer currencies and a less favorable production mix between Los Bronces and Collahuasi.
High Effective Tax Rate for Continuing Operations
Effective tax rate for continuing operations in 2025 of 52% (distorted by De Beers); go‑forward simplified portfolio tax rate ~39% but 2026 guidance for continuing operations tax rate is 44–48% depending on profit mix and De Beers exit timing.
De Beers Sale Complexity and Market Weakness
Diamond market remains challenged (lab‑grown competition, tariff uncertainty and increased supply) complicating exit; potential buyers include consortia and governments, and consideration structures may include deferred/contingent payments given near‑term cash constraints.
Regulatory Steps Remaining for Merger
Two material regulatory approvals still outstanding (China and South Korea) before merger completion; integration planning underway but public updates to be limited until further along in the process.
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights include 2026 copper unit costs of ~ $1.72/lb (up from $1.50/lb) assuming CLP 860 and PEN 3.2, premium iron ore unit costs of ~ $41/t (ZAR16, BRL5.3), a continuing-operations underlying tax rate of 44–48% (long‑term simplified portfolio 38–42%; 2025 outcome ~39%), continuing depreciation $2.4–2.6bn, ~ $0.2bn of restructuring/merger costs, a one‑off non‑cash $0.5bn lease liability recognition related to Los Bronces water, and simplified‑portfolio CapEx of $2.6–3.1bn p.a. over the next 3 years (De Beers CapEx ~$0.5bn; Woodsmith ~$250m in 2026 and 2027 plus $50m OpEx), with sustaining CapEx ~ $2bn p.a.; operational and cost targets include $0.6bn incremental cost savings in 2025 (total realized $1.6bn of a $1.8bn target, with ~ $0.2bn to be realized in 2026), sustaining attributable free cash flow of $1.4bn in 2025, net debt reduced by $2.0bn to $8.6bn (net debt/EBITDA 1.3x; excl. shareholder loans $6.8bn), continuing‑operations EBITDA $6.4bn (simplified portfolio EBITDA $6.9bn, 44% margin; copper $4.0bn; premium iron ore $2.9bn), Quellaveco expected to produce ~300,000 tpa copper, ~125,000 t of lower‑risk near‑term copper growth from Collahuasi/Donoso 2 stripping, and the Anglo‑Teck transaction still targeted to complete in ~12–18 months (roughly Sept–Mar) with a $4.5bn special dividend payable on or around completion; 2025 underlying EPS was $0.54 and full‑year dividends were $0.23/share (final $0.16).Anglo American Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are mixed: multi-year revenue declines and net losses in 2024–2025 weigh heavily (income statement score 38), but operating cash flow remains solid and free cash flow stayed positive in 2025 (cash flow score 62). The balance sheet is still supported by sizeable equity, though leverage has risen versus 2021 (balance sheet score 58).Income Statement
Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully versus the 2021–2022 peak. Revenue declined in each of the last four annual periods (2025: -15.0%), and net income swung from strong profits in 2021–2022 to losses in 2024–2025 (2025 net margin: -22.3%). While 2025 shows solid operating profitability (EBIT margin ~20.1% and EBITDA margin ~32.5%), the bottom line is pressured, pointing to material non-operating items and/or charges driving net losses.38
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage is moderate but has been drifting higher. Debt-to-equity moved up from ~0.46 (2021) to ~0.92 (2025), reflecting either higher debt and/or lower equity over time. Equity remains sizeable ($18.0B in 2025) versus total assets ($56.0B), but recent losses have weighed on returns (negative return on equity in 2024) and reduce balance-sheet flexibility if the downturn persists.58
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation remains a relative strength despite earnings pressure. Operating cash flow stayed positive across all periods and was $5.05B in 2025, supporting positive free cash flow of $1.70B (though down ~10.0% YoY). However, cash conversion has weakened versus 2021 (operating cash flow relative to net income fell from ~1.58 in 2021 to ~0.74 in 2025), and the company is relying more on cash flow resilience than accounting profitability given the recent net losses.62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 18.58B | 27.29B | 30.65B | 35.12B | 41.55B |
| Gross Profit | 7.27B | 16.13B | 15.04B | 21.82B | 28.30B |
| EBITDA | 6.04B | 3.32B | 7.27B | 12.44B | 19.73B |
| Net Income | -4.14B | -3.07B | 283.00M | 4.51B | 8.56B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 55.99B | 64.87B | 66.54B | 67.41B | 65.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.44B | 8.20B | 6.14B | 8.46B | 9.12B |
| Total Debt | 16.46B | 18.21B | 16.91B | 14.37B | 12.86B |
| Total Liabilities | 31.88B | 36.33B | 34.93B | 33.38B | 31.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | 17.98B | 20.76B | 25.06B | 27.36B | 27.82B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.70B | 2.49B | 484.00M | 3.57B | 10.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.05B | 8.10B | 6.50B | 9.77B | 16.72B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.24B | -5.13B | -5.56B | -5.82B | -5.56B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.70B | -840.00M | -3.22B | -4.37B | -9.36B |
Anglo American Technical Analysis
Neutral
21.71
Price Trends
23.07
Negative
21.03
Positive
18.39
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.42
Positive
41.56
Neutral
30.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGLOY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.64, below the 50-day MA of 23.07, and above the 200-day MA of 18.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NGLOY.
Anglo American Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $183.38B | 6.78 | 21.41% | 3.55% | -7.86% | 14.17% | |
69 Neutral | $155.08B | 13.01 | 16.59% | 4.60% | -0.44% | -4.20% | |
68 Neutral | $64.48B | 22.50 | 6.34% | 10.04% | -8.49% | -41.69% | |
65 Neutral | $46.90B | -11.30 | -9.21% | 0.64% | -25.45% | -169.04% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $1.52B | 8.84 | 14.19% | 1.14% | 7.92% | 91.83% | |
57 Neutral | $951.13M | 11.11 | -15.33% | ― | 11.32% | 61.60% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
NGLOY
Anglo American
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41.65%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.