Anglo American (NGLOY) AI Stock Analysis

125 Followers

Top Page

Anglo American

(OTC:NGLOY)

58Neutral

Anglo American's overall stock score reflects a mixed picture. The company shows resilience in cash flow management and operational efficiencies, as highlighted in the recent earnings call. However, declining revenues, profitability challenges, and increased leverage weigh negatively. The technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation concerns persist due to negative earnings. Positive factors like cost savings and strategic focus mitigate some risks but do not fully offset the financial performance challenges.

Anglo American (NGLOY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$33.29B

Dividend Yield1.98%

Average Volume (3M)25.84K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.30

Revenue Growth-10.85%

EPS Growth-1152.52%

CountryUS

Employees55,542

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength60

IndustryIndustrial Materials

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.27

Shares Outstanding2,675,155,800

10 Day Avg. Volume0

30 Day Avg. Volume25,838

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.03

Price to Book (P/B)1.68

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio19.22

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$13.00

Price Target Upside-8.64% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Sell

Number of Analyst Covering1

Anglo American Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAnglo American plc is a leading global mining company with a diverse portfolio of operations in various sectors, including diamonds, copper, platinum group metals, iron ore, metallurgical coal, and nickel. Headquartered in London, the company operates in multiple countries worldwide, providing raw materials essential for the development of modern infrastructure and technology. Its core products and services revolve around the exploration, development, and extraction of mineral resources, with a focus on sustainable and responsible mining practices.

How the Company Makes MoneyAnglo American makes money primarily through the extraction and sale of minerals and metals. Its revenue model is driven by the production and sale of commodities such as iron ore, copper, platinum group metals, and diamonds. The company generates income by supplying these natural resources to various industries, including construction, automotive, and technology sectors, which utilize these materials for manufacturing and production processes. Key revenue streams include long-term supply contracts, spot market sales, and strategic partnerships with industrial customers. Additionally, Anglo American benefits from its diversified asset portfolio, which allows it to mitigate risks associated with commodity price volatility and regional economic fluctuations.

Anglo American Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Anglo American faces challenges with declining revenues and profitability, as reflected in the income statement. The balance sheet shows increased leverage and decreased equity, raising concerns about financial stability. However, cash flow remains a strong point, with positive free cash flow growth and healthy operating cash flow, suggesting resilience in cash management despite profitability issues.

Income Statement

Neutral

The company's revenue has decreased significantly from 2022 to 2024, with a negative revenue growth rate. The gross profit margin for 2024 is relatively strong as gross profit matches total revenue, but the net profit margin is negative due to substantial net losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The debt-to-equity ratio indicates moderate leverage, but it has increased as equity decreased over time. The equity ratio has decreased, reflecting a reduction in equity financing relative to total assets. Return on equity is negative due to net losses, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns from equity.

Cash Flow

Positive

Free cash flow has shown growth from 2023 to 2024, which is a positive sign. Operating cash flow remains healthy relative to net income, indicating strong cash generation capabilities despite net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, reflecting efficient cash management.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
29.44B	27.29B	30.65B	35.12B	41.55B	30.90B
	Gross Profit
11.87B	27.29B	15.04B	19.59B	25.66B	13.49B
	EBIT
6.45B	-228.00M	3.90B	9.24B	17.59B	5.63B
	EBITDA
7.65B	3.32B	7.27B	11.75B	20.10B	8.47B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-1.65B	-3.07B	283.00M	6.02B	11.70B	3.33B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
6.14B	8.20B	5.60B	8.45B	9.10B	7.52B
	Total Assets
66.54B	64.87B	66.54B	67.41B	65.98B	62.53B
	Total Debt
16.91B	18.21B	16.91B	14.37B	12.86B	13.51B
	Net Debt
10.82B	10.04B	10.82B	5.95B	3.79B	5.99B
	Total Liabilities
34.93B	36.33B	34.93B	33.38B	31.21B	29.77B
	Stockholders Equity
25.06B	20.76B	25.06B	27.36B	27.82B	25.82B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.82B	2.49B	484.00M	3.44B	10.91B	1.90B
	Operating Cash Flow
7.87B	8.10B	6.50B	9.77B	16.72B	6.62B
	Investing Cash Flow
-5.86B	-5.13B	-5.56B	-5.82B	-5.56B	-4.74B
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.34B	-840.00M	-3.22B	-4.37B	-9.36B	-716.00M

Anglo American Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price14.23

Price Trends

50DMA

14.03

Positive

100DMA

14.48

Negative

200DMA

14.66

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.15

Negative

RSI

53.02

Neutral

STOCH

78.18

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NGLOY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.02, above the 50-day MA of 14.03, and below the 200-day MA of 14.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NGLOY.

Anglo American Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (50)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BHP	76 Outperform	$129.36B	11.28	26.13%	4.85%	-3.15%	54.08%
RIO	73 Outperform	$107.03B	8.72	20.93%	6.37%	-0.81%	14.59%
VALE	72 Outperform	$41.25B	7.20	15.98%	7.61%	-9.59%	-25.35%
NGLOY	58 Neutral	$33.29B	―	-13.29%	1.98%	-10.85%	-1152.52%
NEXA	58 Neutral	$707.22M	―	-20.22%	―	6.28%	29.57%
MP	56 Neutral	$3.45B	―	-9.62%	―	4.63%	-3189.81%
Sector *	50 Neutral	$1.98B	-1.12	-21.33%	3.61%	1.68%	-30.56%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NGLOY

Anglo American

13.70

-2.96

-17.77%

BHP

BHP Group

50.51

-8.12

-13.85%

RIO

Rio Tinto

62.64

-6.40

-9.27%

VALE

Vale SA

9.80

-2.24

-18.60%

NEXA

Nexa Resources SA

5.20

-2.29

-30.57%

MP Materials

21.31

3.06

16.77%

Anglo American Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: -4.05%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a positive sentiment with significant achievements in cost savings, portfolio simplification, and operational efficiencies, which helped stabilize margins despite lower commodity prices. However, there were notable challenges, including workplace fatalities and a downturn in the diamond market, which were serious concerns.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Stable EBITDA Margins Despite Price Drops

Despite a 10% fall in basket price, Anglo American maintained stable EBITDA margins at 30%, resulting in a full-year EBITDA of $8.5 billion.

Significant Cost Savings Achieved

Anglo American realized cost savings of $1 billion in 2024, equivalent to $1.3 billion on a run-rate basis, with a target of $1.8 billion by the end of 2025.

Successful Portfolio Simplification

The company agreed on the sale of its steelmaking coal business for up to $4.8 billion and its nickel business for up to $500 million, further simplifying its portfolio.

Copper and Iron Ore Performance

Copper and iron ore represented 76% of EBITDA, with margins of 50% and 40% respectively, supported by cost-saving measures and operational efficiencies.

Progress in Safety Initiatives

The company improved its lost-time injury frequency rates by 28% over two years, marking 2024 as its best-ever year in this aspect.

Negative Updates

Workplace Fatalities

The company reported three workplace fatalities in 2024, highlighting ongoing safety challenges.

Challenges in Diamond Market

De Beers faced a challenging year with a significant decline in rough diamond sales in the second half of 2024, leading to a $2.9 billion impairment.

Impact of Lower Commodity Prices

Revenue was 12% lower due to a 10% reduction in basket price, impacting overall financial performance.

Company Guidance

In the recent call, Anglo American provided detailed guidance on their performance and strategic initiatives, highlighting several key metrics. For 2024, they reported a stable EBITDA margin of 30% despite a 10% drop in basket prices, achieving a full-year EBITDA of $8.5 billion. The company realized $1 billion in cost savings and maintained net debt at $10.6 billion. They also announced a significant steelmaking coal sale valued at up to $4.8 billion. Looking ahead, Anglo American plans to continue focusing on copper, iron ore, and crop nutrients as their strategic pillars, with production guidance remaining stable for 2025 and 2026 and new guidance for 2027 aligning with prior expectations. The company also emphasized their commitment to safety, achieving a 28% improvement in injury rates since 2022.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.