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NextDecade
(NASDAQ:NEXT)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-7.14% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (pre-revenue, widening losses, heavy cash burn, high leverage and negative equity). Technicals add a further headwind with the stock trading below key moving averages. These negatives are partly offset by a more constructive earnings-call backdrop, including meaningful construction/commissioning progress and financing actions that reduced near-term bank debt, but execution and funding risks remain material.
Positive Factors
Construction Progress
Material construction and commissioning progress moves Rio Grande LNG from development toward revenue-generating operations. As trains reach first gas and first LNG, capital deployed begins converting to operating assets, improving future cash generation potential and reducing execution risk over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Pre‑revenue Cash Burn
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow reflects project spend ahead of revenues and a business model not yet cash‑generative. This structural burn necessitates continued external funding, heightens dilution and refinancing risks, and pressures liquidity until commercial operations begin and contracted cash flows materialize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Construction Progress
Material construction and commissioning progress moves Rio Grande LNG from development toward revenue-generating operations. As trains reach first gas and first LNG, capital deployed begins converting to operating assets, improving future cash generation potential and reducing execution risk over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
NextDecade (NEXT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.79B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.78M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-71.38%
CountryUS
Employees360
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.36
Shares Outstanding266,185,420
10 Day Avg. Volume2,366,526
30 Day Avg. Volume2,782,759
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)14.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-0.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.17Price Target Upside30.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
NextDecade Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NextDecade Corporation, an energy company, engages in the construction and development activities related to the liquefaction of natural gas in the United States. The company constructs and develops natural gas liquefaction and export facilities l...
How the Company Makes Money
NextDecade’s business model is centered on earning revenues from LNG liquefaction services and, if developed and operating, potentially from selling LNG and/or marketing gas-related services tied to its export infrastructure. For LNG projects like...
NextDecade Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 08, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: construction and permitting milestones are advancing ahead of prior schedules, major financings were successfully completed and used to de‑risk project-level bank debt, regulatory progress for Train 6 supports a potential H2 2027 FID, and commercial interest and market fundamentals have strengthened due to global supply disruptions. Key risks remain around commissioning timing, completion of remaining milestones (LNG tank, pipeline, commissioning sequencing), firming enough long‑term SPAs to support Train 6 FID, elevated near‑term O&M and financing costs, and broader geopolitical/market volatility. On balance, the positive operational, financing, and market developments outweigh the outstanding execution and market‑timing risks.Positive Updates
Construction Progress and Schedule
Trains 1 and 2: 74% complete on engineering and procurement and ~60% complete on construction (June 2026). Train 3: >50% complete; Train 4: 15.5% complete; Train 5: 9.4% complete. Over 6,000 workers on site daily; Bechtel tracking ahead of the company's early volume guidance with construction on budget and ahead of schedule.
Negative Updates
Commissioning and Timing Uncertainty
First gas and first LNG remain guidance-based (first gas expected later in 2026; first LNG H1 2027) with milestones still to be completed (e.g., LNG tank completion, final pipeline tie-ins and commissioning sequencing). Management expects to narrow timing in Q4 2026, signaling remaining operational risk during commissioning/startup.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Construction Progress and Schedule
Trains 1 and 2: 74% complete on engineering and procurement and ~60% complete on construction (June 2026). Train 3: >50% complete; Train 4: 15.5% complete; Train 5: 9.4% complete. Over 6,000 workers on site daily; Bechtel tracking ahead of the company's early volume guidance with construction on budget and ahead of schedule.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided first gas later in 2026 and first LNG from Train 1 in H1 2027, with a narrower production timing expected by Q4 2026; as of June 2026 Trains 1–2 were 74% complete on engineering & procurement and ~60% on construction (commissioning started), Train 3 >50% complete, Train 4 15.5%, Train 5 9.4%, with >6,000 workers on site, the 138 kV main substation energized in May and >100 operations staff seconded to Bechtel in June. Near‑term site milestones include LNG tank completion before year‑end, Bay Runner pipeline on track for Q3 2026 in‑service and the Valley Crossing hot tap complete, with Tank 1 piping underway, inner tank welding progressing and dredging/channel deepening substantially complete. On finance, NextDecade closed a $1.0B term loan at 7.05% due June 2033 (interest cash or PIK until after June 2029) and a $3.5B 144A bond issuance ( $1.0B 5.25% due 2031; $0.5B 5.5% due 2034; $1.25B 5.75% due 2036; $0.75B 6.15% due 2041) (order book >$14B), received a $109M swap settlement and used net proceeds to pay down ≈$4.6B of Phase 1 bank debt. Train 6 commercialization and permitting progressed (FERC final EIS scheduled June 25, 2027 supporting a potential 2H‑2027 FID, contingent on commercial support/financing), a Baker Hughes compressor reservation was executed, two LNG vessels (including Clean Texas) were delivered bringing charters to three, and management reiterated expectations that spot LNG prices should remain elevated through at least 2030, will continue marketing uncontracted volumes and is targeting ~$5 margins on sales.NextDecade Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
6
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
4
Very Negative
Cash Flow
5
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -9.03M | -12.12M | -12.71M | -6.31M | -162.00K | -184.00K |
| EBITDA | -350.02M | -327.97M | 306.33M | -209.60M | -59.15M | -21.30M |
| Net Income | -358.59M | -306.43M | -61.75M | -162.26M | -60.07M | -22.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.21B | 12.43B | 6.40B | 3.32B | 312.43M | 222.10M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 83.68M | 143.78M | 148.14M | 38.24M | 62.79M | 25.55M |
| Total Debt | 10.54B | 8.66B | 4.07B | 1.97B | 1.56M | 596.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 12.39B | 10.12B | 4.66B | 2.58B | 55.62M | 33.81M |
| Stockholders Equity | -57.28M | 95.34M | 377.64M | 287.92M | 256.81M | 188.29M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.85B | -5.02B | -2.66B | -1.81B | -73.83M | -30.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -223.83M | -169.40M | -95.58M | -73.62M | -40.08M | -17.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.52B | -4.85B | -2.57B | -1.75B | -40.89M | -18.53M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.79B | 5.34B | 2.77B | 2.06B | 118.20M | 39.44M |
NextDecade Technical Analysis
Negative
7.00
Price Trends
7.72
Negative
7.65
Negative
6.61
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.34
Positive
39.54
Neutral
31.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NEXT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.39, below the 50-day MA of 7.72, and above the 200-day MA of 6.61, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NEXT.
NextDecade Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $4.62B | 11.03 | 26.57% | 1.79% | -4.37% | 13.37% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $9.30B | 17.24 | 21.32% | 1.69% | -0.38% | 2.58% | |
63 Neutral | $21.13B | 41.43 | 14.53% | ― | 23.46% | 86.29% | |
60 Neutral | $15.93B | 41.39 | 10.82% | 1.01% | 0.95% | -10.51% | |
50 Neutral | $7.01B | 24.35 | 8.12% | ― | -8.32% | -87.53% | |
49 Neutral | $1.79B | -4.94 | -886.32% | ― | ― | -71.38% |
* Energy Sector Average
NEXT
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NextDecade Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NextDecade Completes Major Rio Grande LNG Debt Refinancing
Positive
Jul 2, 2026
On July 2, 2026, Rio Grande LNG, LLC completed a multi‑tranche offering of $3.5 billion in senior secured notes, with maturities ranging from 2031 to 2041 and coupon rates between 5.250% and 6.150%. The notes were sold to qualified instituti...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NextDecade Secures $1 Billion Rio Grande LNG Loan
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 17, 2026, an indirect NextDecade subsidiary, Rio Grande LNG Intermediate HoldCo Borrower, LLC, entered into a $1.0 billion term loan credit agreement with Wilmington Trust as administrative and collateral agent and a group of lenders. The ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
NextDecade Names New CFO Amid Broad Shareholder Backing
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 3, 2026, NextDecade Corporation announced the appointment of seasoned energy finance executive John Zuklic as Chief Financial Officer, effective July 6, 2026, with a compensation package built around a $600,000 base salary, a target annual...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.