NextDecade (NEXT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.52B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.33
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 237
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 264,930,050
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,330,608
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,537,651
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 14.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.60
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -682.68
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -22.11
• 1Y Price Target: $6.67
• Price Target Upside: 16.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▼(-4.18% Downside)
• Action: N/A Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: N/A 03/03/26

The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (no revenue, sizable recurring losses, negative operating cash flow, and a history of high leverage/thin equity). Technical indicators provide some near-term support (above 20/50-day averages with positive MACD), but valuation is not compelling given losses (negative P/E) and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Contract-backed LNG business model

NextDecade’s core model targets long-term, contract-backed cash flows from liquefaction and tolling agreements. Those multiyear contracts with creditworthy counterparties are structurally supportive of project financing and reduce revenue volatility versus pure merchant exposure, aiding long-term cash stability once operations scale.

Strategic Rio Grande LNG project and pipeline assets

Ownership of a large export terminal and dedicated pipeline creates high barriers to entry and optionality to earn capacity fees, transport revenues, and commercial uplifts. These hard infrastructure assets position the company to capture sustained demand for U.S. LNG exports and support long-term contracted revenue once commissioned.

Reported debt reduction and positive EBITDA trend

The reporting of zero debt in 2025, alongside positive EBITDA in 2024–2025, suggests improving reported leverage and underlying earnings before non‑cash items. If sustained, these trends can materially improve financing flexibility and make future project financing or refinance of liabilities easier when coupled with contract ramp-up.

Negative Factors

No revenue across multiple years

The company reported no revenue for several consecutive years, indicating the asset base is not yet monetized. Absent operating cash inflows, progress is dependent on completing projects and securing long-term offtakes; delays or execution setbacks therefore directly threaten the timeline to sustainable cash generation.

Sustained negative operating cash flow

Consistent negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow show the business is not self-funding. Persistent cash burn increases reliance on external financing, raises dilution or refinancing risk, and can constrain the company’s ability to complete projects or absorb cost overruns over the medium term.

Historically high leverage and very thin equity

Prior high leverage and a thin equity base create elevated solvency and refinancing risk: heavy past indebtedness and sharply reduced equity mean losses have outsized impact on capital cushions. Even with reported debt at zero in 2025, the large asset base and history of leverage keep balance sheet risk structurally elevated.

NextDecade Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NextDecade Corporation engages in the development activities related to the liquefaction and sale of liquefied natural gas (LNG); and capture and storage of CO2 emissions. The company focuses on the development activities on the Rio Grande LNG terminal facility located in the Port of Brownsville in southern Texas. It also focuses on a carbon capture and storage project (CCS project) at the terminal, as well as on other CCS projects with third-party industrial source facilities. The company was founded in 2010 is based in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

NextDecade’s business model is to develop, finance, construct, and operate LNG export facilities and earn revenue primarily from long-term commercial contracts tied to the terminal’s capacity and LNG volumes. The key expected revenue stream is from LNG sales and/or liquefaction services under long-term agreements with customers (e.g., structured as LNG offtake arrangements and/or tolling-style contracts where customers pay for the right to liquefy gas using the facility’s capacity). In these structures, NextDecade typically seeks stable, contract-backed cash flows supported by creditworthy counterparties to underpin project financing. Additional potential revenue can come from marketing and optimization activities (if the company or its customers allow flexibility to capture spreads between U.S. natural gas prices and global LNG prices), as well as from owning and operating associated midstream assets (such as pipeline infrastructure) that may generate fees for transportation or related services. Specific pricing terms, contracted volumes, and the full list of counterparties are not available in this response and are therefore null.

NextDecade Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Very weak fundamentals: no revenue across 2020–2025, persistent large net losses (e.g., -$306.4M in 2025), consistently negative operating cash flow (e.g., -$169.4M in 2025), and historically high leverage in 2023–2024 (debt up to $4.07B with ~10.8x debt-to-equity). Reported debt at $0 in 2025 helps, but equity remains thin ($95.3M on $12.43B assets) and losses/cash burn imply ongoing funding risk.

Income Statement

Across 2020–2025, the company reports no revenue, while losses remain persistent and sizable (net income of -$306.4M in 2025 vs. -$61.8M in 2024 and -$162.3M in 2023). Operating profitability is weak with negative EBIT in the years provided (e.g., -$171.1M in 2024), and margins are not meaningful given zero revenue. A positive EBITDA in 2024–2025 suggests some non-cash or below-EBITDA items are driving reported losses, but the overall earnings trajectory remains materially negative.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows very high leverage in 2023–2024, with debt rising to $4.07B in 2024 and a debt-to-equity level around 10.8x, which creates elevated refinancing and solvency risk. Equity is relatively small versus the asset base and has declined sharply by 2025 (equity of $95.3M on assets of $12.43B), and returns on equity are deeply negative (notably -321% in 2025), reflecting heavy losses on a thin equity cushion. A strength is that reported debt is shown as zero in 2025, but given the large asset base and weak equity, the overall balance sheet risk profile still screens as high based on the provided figures.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently negative: operating cash flow is below zero each year shown (e.g., -$169.4M in 2025 and -$95.6M in 2024), indicating the core business is not self-funding. Free cash flow is deeply negative and volatile (approximately -$2.66B in 2024 and -$1.81B in 2023), consistent with heavy spend without offsetting operating inflows, and 2025 free cash flow fell sharply versus the prior year. While free cash flow can be higher than net loss in some years due to non-cash charges, the sustained negative operating cash flow points to ongoing external funding needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-12.12M	-6.68M	-3.15M	-1.27M	-2.15M
EBITDA	-213.81M	371.66M	-168.21M	-58.80M	-19.89M
Net Income	-306.43M	-61.75M	-162.26M	-60.07M	-22.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.43B	6.40B	3.32B	312.43M	222.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	143.78M	148.14M	38.24M	62.79M	25.55M
Total Debt	8.66B	4.07B	1.97B	1.56M	596.00K
Total Liabilities	10.12B	4.66B	2.58B	55.62M	33.81M
Stockholders Equity	95.34M	377.64M	287.92M	256.81M	188.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-5.02B	-2.66B	-1.81B	-73.83M	-30.07M
Operating Cash Flow	-169.40M	-95.58M	-73.62M	-40.08M	-17.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.85B	-2.57B	-1.75B	-40.89M	-18.53M
Financing Cash Flow	5.34B	2.77B	2.06B	118.20M	39.44M

NextDecade Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRC	76 Outperform	$5.58B	10.72	10.34%	3.56%	33.85%	-34.08%
GPOR	71 Outperform	$3.71B	8.86	22.73%	―	38.16%	-115.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
NOG	65 Neutral	$2.67B	54.12	1.69%	8.18%	1.51%	-78.38%
MUR	62 Neutral	$5.12B	42.92	2.03%	4.15%	-13.92%	-68.34%
NEXT	46 Neutral	$1.52B	-4.51	-46.94%	―	―	―