Nextdecade Corp (NEXT)
NASDAQ:NEXT
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NextDecade
(NASDAQ:NEXT)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(16.96% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/04/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, large losses, heavy cash burn, and high leverage/negative equity). Offsetting this, the latest earnings call signaled strong execution progress and reaffirmed timelines toward first LNG, while technicals show supportive momentum. Valuation provides limited support due to negative earnings and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Construction progress ahead of schedule and on budget
Sustained ahead‑of‑schedule, on‑budget execution materially lowers schedule and cost overrun risk for Phase 1. That durability improves the probability of reaching first gas/LNG timelines, strengthens lender and counterparty confidence, and supports the project's eventual cash generation profile.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage and negative equity
Elevated debt and near‑zero/negative equity materially reduce financial flexibility and raise refinancing and covenant risks. Durable high leverage magnifies sensitivity to execution setbacks and market shocks, constraining the company's ability to fund future trains or absorb lower margins without dilutive equity or costly financings.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Construction progress ahead of schedule and on budget
Sustained ahead‑of‑schedule, on‑budget execution materially lowers schedule and cost overrun risk for Phase 1. That durability improves the probability of reaching first gas/LNG timelines, strengthens lender and counterparty confidence, and supports the project's eventual cash generation profile.
Read all positive factors
NextDecade (NEXT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.24B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-96.11%
CountryUS
Employees237
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.34
Shares Outstanding264,992,980
10 Day Avg. Volume3,141,596
30 Day Avg. Volume3,322,356
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)14.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-0.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.02
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-937.27
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-44.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.33Price Target Upside21.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
NextDecade Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NextDecade Corporation engages in the development activities related to the liquefaction and sale of liquefied natural gas (LNG); and capture and storage of CO2 emissions. The company focuses on the development activities on the Rio Grande LNG ter...
How the Company Makes Money
NextDecade’s business model is to develop, finance, construct, and operate LNG export facilities and earn revenue primarily from long-term commercial contracts tied to the terminal’s capacity and LNG volumes. The key expected revenue stream is fro...
NextDecade Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 08, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and commercial progress: Phase 1 construction is advancing ahead of schedule and on budget with exemplary safety; early cargo sales and robust market demand (amplified by Middle East disruptions) support attractive early and steady-state cash flow scenarios. Management reaffirmed guidance and presented clear financing and commercialization plans for Train 6+. Key risks noted include short-term market volatility from the Iran conflict, remaining uncontracted early volumes, and cost/financing uncertainty for future trains. Overall, the positives around schedule, safety, early sales, and robust long-term demand outweighed the challenges discussed.Positive Updates
Construction Progress Ahead of Schedule and On Budget
As of March 2026, Trains 1 & 2 are 67.8% complete, Train 3 is 44.2% complete, Train 4 is 10.6% and Train 5 is 6.8% complete. Engineering for Trains 1 & 2 is ~98% complete and procurement ~94%; Train 3 engineering is >90% and procurement >80%. Phase 1 is tracking ahead of guaranteed substantial completion dates and remains within EPC budget.
Negative Updates
Market Uncertainty from Iran Conflict
Iran conflict caused large, uncertain supply disruptions (initial ~14 mtpa pulled out of market; additional ~7 mtpa lost per month of continued shut-in). Timing for return of supply and full market impact remain uncertain, creating short-term volatility and demand destruction risks in price-sensitive markets.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Construction Progress Ahead of Schedule and On Budget
As of March 2026, Trains 1 & 2 are 67.8% complete, Train 3 is 44.2% complete, Train 4 is 10.6% and Train 5 is 6.8% complete. Engineering for Trains 1 & 2 is ~98% complete and procurement ~94%; Train 3 engineering is >90% and procurement >80%. Phase 1 is tracking ahead of guaranteed substantial completion dates and remains within EPC budget.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NextDecade reaffirmed its early‑volume and steady‑state guidance: roughly 3,800 TBtu of early LNG production (including ~1,275 TBtu uncontracted) beginning with Train 1 start‑up in 2027, having already sold >175 TBtu (cutting Phase 1 market‑exposed volumes by ~33%); first gas is expected H2 2026 and first LNG from Train 1 in H1 2027. Construction progress (Mar‑2026): Trains 1–2 67.8% complete (engineering ~98%, procurement ~94%), Train 3 44.2% (engineering >90%, procurement >80%), Train 4 10.6%, Train 5 6.8%; TRIR <0.1, Bay Runner pipeline due Q3, and FERC approved 24/7 construction with no EPC cost increase. Financial metrics/guidance: early‑volume distributable cash flow of ~ $2.0B at a $5/MMBtu margin (or ~$1.2B at $3/MMBtu); steady‑state NextDecade DCF ≈ $500M annually pre‑flip and ≈ $800M post‑flip at $5 margins (alternative case $400M pre‑flip / $500M post‑flip with $3 early / $5 steady plus +2 MTPA of long‑term SPAs); steady‑state leverage target 3.0–3.5x debt/adjusted EBITDA. Capital structure and financing: project credit commitments of >$9B (Phase 1), ~$3.8B (Train 4) and ~$3.6B (Train 5), >$1.85B of Phase 1 bank debt refinanced to date, FinCo margin ≈150 bps over project facilities, expectation project debt could cover up to ~75% of Train 6 costs, FERC application for Train 6 planned this quarter with possible FERC permit by mid‑2027, targeted FID H2 2027 and Train 6 online as early as 2032.NextDecade Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
6
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
3
Very Negative
Cash Flow
5
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -12.00M | -12.12M | -12.71M | -6.31M | -162.00K | -184.00K |
| EBITDA | -255.51M | -327.97M | 306.33M | -209.60M | -59.15M | -18.77M |
| Net Income | -354.04M | -306.43M | -61.75M | -162.26M | -60.07M | -22.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.23B | 12.43B | 6.40B | 3.32B | 312.43M | 222.10M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 465.06M | 143.78M | 148.14M | 38.24M | 62.79M | 25.55M |
| Total Debt | 9.47B | 8.66B | 4.07B | 1.97B | 1.56M | 596.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 10.87B | 10.12B | 4.66B | 2.58B | 55.62M | 33.81M |
| Stockholders Equity | -30.71M | 95.34M | 377.64M | 287.92M | 256.81M | 188.29M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -5.75B | -5.02B | -2.66B | -1.81B | -73.83M | -30.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -211.41M | -169.40M | -95.58M | -73.62M | -40.08M | -17.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.25B | -4.85B | -2.57B | -1.75B | -40.89M | -18.53M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.54B | 5.34B | 2.77B | 2.06B | 118.20M | 39.44M |
NextDecade Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $3.20B | 5.92 | 32.67% | ― | 49.58% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $5.45B | 27.85 | 1.64% | 4.15% | -5.06% | -77.54% | |
58 Neutral | $5.51B | -2.16 | -13.78% | 3.56% | 3.77% | -192.29% | |
56 Neutral | $2.24B | -3.72 | -295.28% | ― | ― | -96.11% | |
52 Neutral | $2.51B | -1.38 | -29.09% | 8.18% | -6.81% | -197.47% |
* Energy Sector Average
NEXT
NextDecade
8.46
0.93
12.35%
MUR
Murphy Oil
38.00
18.01
90.11%
NOG
Northern Oil And Gas
23.75
-1.44
-5.70%
CRC
California Resources Corp
62.04
21.28
52.19%
GPOR
Gulfport Energy
178.22
-16.46
-8.45%
NextDecade Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
NextDecade Extends CEO Schatzman Contract and Compensation Package
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
On April 15, 2026, NextDecade Corporation amended and restated the employment agreement with Chairman and CEO Matthew Schatzman, replacing his 2017 contract and extending his initial term through April 15, 2029. The new agreement sets a $1,000,000...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.