Noble Corporation (NE)
NYSE:NE
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Noble Corporation
(NYSE:NE)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$55.00
▲(9.30% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/13/26
The score is driven primarily by improved profitability and strong operating/free cash flow, supported by a constructive earnings outlook and large backlog. Offsetting factors are the major 2025 revenue data inconsistency, increased leverage versus prior years, and technically overextended momentum signals. Valuation is mixed: a strong dividend yield is tempered by a higher P/E.
Positive Factors
Backlog and Revenue Visibility
A $7.5B backlog with roughly $2.3B slated to convert in the remainder of 2026 provides durable multi‑period revenue visibility. Contracted work reduces reliance on volatile spot markets, supports utilization improvement and underpins near‑term EBITDA and cash flow predictability.
Negative Factors
Elevated CapEx
High 2026 CapEx guidance (≈$590–$640M) delays the free‑cash‑flow inflection to 2027 and increases near‑term cash consumption. Project spending (e.g., Great White) ties up capital and raises execution risk; timely delivery and higher dayrates are needed for the expected FCF rebound to materialize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and Revenue Visibility
A $7.5B backlog with roughly $2.3B slated to convert in the remainder of 2026 provides durable multi‑period revenue visibility. Contracted work reduces reliance on volatile spot markets, supports utilization improvement and underpins near‑term EBITDA and cash flow predictability.
Read all positive factors
Noble Corporation (NE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.01B
Dividend Yield8.85%
Average Volume (3M)1.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.7
Beta (1Y)1.24
Revenue Growth24.34%
EPS Growth-59.48%
CountryUS
Employees5,000
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Drilling
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding159,197,400
10 Day Avg. Volume1,403,679
30 Day Avg. Volume1,738,922
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.38
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.37
P/FCF Ratio10.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.13Price Target Upside-14.29% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.97B
Noble Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Noble Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an offshore drilling contractor for the oil and gas industry worldwide. The company provides contract drilling services to the oil and gas industry through its fleet of mobile offshore...
How the Company Makes Money
Noble primarily makes money by contracting its offshore drilling rigs to oil and gas operators under drilling contracts. Revenue is largely driven by (1) dayrate-based contract drilling fees earned when a rig is operating for a customer, multiplie...
Noble Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a fundamentally constructive and confident outlook driven by meaningful backlog growth, strong full-year 2025 financials, disciplined capital recycling, and targeted fleet reinvestment that underpin management's visibility to a substantial earnings and free cash flow inflection in 2027 (~$1.3B EBITDA and ~$600M FCF run-rate). Offsetting this optimism are clear near-term headwinds: lower 2025 Brent prices (-15% YoY), soft dayrates and present utilization gaps (82% present vs 95% contracted), elevated 2026 CapEx tied to strategic projects, Petrobras-related contract uncertainty in Brazil, and potential one-off cash exposures (e.g., up to $85M BOP lease buyout). On balance, the positive operational momentum, backlog quality, commercial wins, and capital allocation actions outweigh the near-term macro and timing challenges, but the recovery is contingent on market execution and demand crystallizing into 2026–2027.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Financial Results
Q4 contract drilling services revenue of $705,000,000, adjusted EBITDA of $232,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA margin of 30%. Q4 cash flow from operations was $187,000,000, CapEx was $152,000,000, and Q4 free cash flow was $35,000,000. Full-year 2025 revenue was $3,300,000,000 with adjusted EBITDA of $1,100,000,000 and full-year free cash flow of $454,000,000.
Negative Updates
Macro Headwinds — Lower Oil Prices
Average Brent crude price in 2025 was $68 per barrel, down ~15% year-over-year versus 2024, creating budgetary friction for customers and contributing to softer dayrates despite backlog growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Financial Results
Q4 contract drilling services revenue of $705,000,000, adjusted EBITDA of $232,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA margin of 30%. Q4 cash flow from operations was $187,000,000, CapEx was $152,000,000, and Q4 free cash flow was $35,000,000. Full-year 2025 revenue was $3,300,000,000 with adjusted EBITDA of $1,100,000,000 and full-year free cash flow of $454,000,000.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Noble guided 2026 revenue of $2.8–3.0 billion (including ~ $150 million of reimbursables) and adjusted EBITDA of $940–1,020 million, with Q1 EBITDA expected roughly flat to Q4 2025 and a modestly higher weighting in H2; they forecast total 2026 CapEx of $590–640 million (including roughly half of the $160 million Great White project, ~ $25 million of customer‑reimbursable CapEx, and ~ $50 million of additional project CapEx tied to recent $1.3 billion awards), cash taxes of ~11–12% of adjusted EBITDA, a favorable working capital reduction of ~ $100 million, and note a potential BOP lease buyout of up to $85 million (not in CapEx guidance). The company reported a $7.5 billion backlog (≈ $2.3 billion to convert in the remainder of 2026 and year‑two backlog slightly larger than 2026), ended Q4 2025 with revenue of $705 million, adjusted EBITDA of $232 million (30% margin), Q4 cash from operations $187 million and free cash flow $35 million, and FY2025 results of $3.3 billion revenue, $1.1 billion adjusted EBITDA, $497 million net CapEx and $454 million free cash flow. Looking through 2027, management illustrated a run‑rate scenario (13 of 15 tier‑one drillships working plus D‑rig contributions) of roughly $1.3 billion EBITDA and about $600 million free cash flow, and expects go‑forward sustaining CapEx to trend to the high $300s–$400 million range (excluding remaining Great White spend).Noble Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
75
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.29B | 3.06B | 2.59B | 1.41B | 847.81M |
| Gross Profit | 648.16M | 836.55M | 743.75M | 305.44M | -7.33M |
| EBITDA | 1.10B | 1.12B | 916.68M | 370.15M | 34.63M |
| Net Income | 216.72M | 448.35M | 481.90M | 168.95M | 352.21M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.53B | 7.96B | 5.51B | 5.23B | 2.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 471.40M | 247.30M | 360.79M | 476.21M | 194.14M |
| Total Debt | 1.98B | 2.08B | 611.87M | 672.77M | 233.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.98B | 3.31B | 1.59B | 1.63B | 572.82M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.55B | 4.65B | 3.92B | 3.61B | 1.50B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 432.15M | 80.16M | 164.76M | 106.67M | -162.87M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 951.68M | 655.48M | 574.34M | 280.99M | 6.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -350.07M | -959.02M | -366.51M | 375.77M | 193.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -373.93M | 188.08M | -325.79M | -367.77M | -367.94M |
Noble Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
50.32
Price Trends
44.46
Positive
37.26
Positive
32.37
Positive
Market Momentum
1.70
Positive
64.47
Neutral
64.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.29, above the 50-day MA of 44.46, and above the 200-day MA of 32.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NE.
Noble Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $6.92B | 3.62 | 38.72% | ― | 6.81% | -61.94% | |
67 Neutral | $8.01B | 20.70 | 4.72% | 8.85% | 24.34% | -59.48% | |
66 Neutral | $3.92B | -25.02 | -2.83% | 5.42% | -16.59% | 83.95% | |
66 Neutral | $7.39B | -1.36 | -32.62% | ― | 16.93% | -335.82% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | $3.53B | -7.33 | -11.45% | 3.24% | 35.89% | -148.39% | |
56 Neutral | $3.00B | -54.06 | -2.68% | ― | -9.31% | -91.57% |
* Energy Sector Average
NE
Noble Corporation
50.32
32.71
185.71%
HP
Helmerich & Payne
35.36
17.73
100.58%
PTEN
Patterson-UTI
10.33
5.04
95.09%
RIG
Transocean
6.70
4.53
208.76%
VAL
Valaris
99.97
69.93
232.79%
SDRL
Seadrill Limited
48.30
29.56
157.74%
Noble Corporation Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Noble Corporation Announces Planned Board Director Resignation
Neutral
Mar 16, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Noble Corporation plc announced that board member Kristin Holth has resigned from her position as director, effective at the commencement of the company’s 2026 Annual General Meeting of shareholders, and will not stand for...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Noble Corporation Reports Strong 2025 Results and Outlook
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
Noble Corporation plc reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 11, 2026, highlighting approximately $1.3 billion in new contract awards since October that lifted total backlog to $7.5 billion, and the completed sale of fi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.