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Noble Corporation (NE)
NYSE:NE
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Noble Corporation
(NYSE:NE)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
▲(5.45% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/13/26
The score is driven primarily by improved profitability and strong operating/free cash flow, supported by a constructive earnings outlook and large backlog. Offsetting factors are the major 2025 revenue data inconsistency, increased leverage versus prior years, and technically overextended momentum signals. Valuation is mixed: a strong dividend yield is tempered by a higher P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, large operating cash flow and materially positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for fleet reinvestment, dividend returns and debt repayment. Over a multi‑year horizon, strong cash conversion supports financial flexibility and de‑risking of strategic projects.
Large, high‑quality backlog
A $7.5B backlog with significant near‑term convertibility gives multi‑quarter revenue visibility and underpins management’s EBITDA guidance. High‑quality bookings reduce spot exposure, enable better fleet scheduling and support long‑term margin and utilization improvement.
Fleet high‑grading & capital recycling
Active divestiture of lower‑spec jackups and targeted reinvestment in high‑spec drillships improves fleet mix and expected dayrate capture. Capital recycling both strengthens the balance sheet and concentrates assets where structural demand and margin premium are largest.
Negative Factors
Higher leverage vs prior years
Material debt increases relative to recent years reduce financial flexibility and increase interest exposure through commodity cycles. Elevated leverage constrains free cash flow allocation choices and raises the cost of buffering against weaker demand or project delays.
Elevated project CapEx timing
Large, project‑driven capital spending consumes operating cash and defers the company’s free‑cash‑flow inflection. Execution timing and cost control on these investments materially affect multi‑year cash generation and the ability to accelerate deleveraging or shareholder returns.
Utilization & regional customer risk
A meaningful gap between contracted and present utilization plus regional concentration in Brazil creates durable timing and execution risk: customers (e.g., Petrobras) face budget pressure and may delay or renegotiate, which can reduce near‑term revenue and idle high‑spec assets.
Noble Corporation (NE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.05B
Dividend Yield8.85%
Average Volume (3M)2.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)32.7
Beta (1Y)1.32
Revenue Growth24.34%
EPS Growth-59.48%
CountryUS
Employees5,000
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Drilling
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding159,197,400
10 Day Avg. Volume3,212,328
30 Day Avg. Volume2,358,496
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.38
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)1.37
P/FCF Ratio10.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.40
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.88Price Target Upside-10.19% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.96B
Noble Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNoble Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an offshore drilling contractor for the oil and gas industry worldwide. The company provides contract drilling services to the oil and gas industry through its fleet of mobile offshore drilling units. As of February 16, 2022, it operated a fleet of 20 offshore drilling units, which included 12 floaters and 8 jackups. The company was formerly known as Noble Holding Corporation plc. Noble Corporation was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyNoble Corporation generates revenue primarily through day rates charged for the use of its drilling rigs and related services. The company enters into contracts with oil and gas companies for the leasing of its drilling units, which can range from short-term contracts to long-term agreements spanning several years. Key revenue streams include the utilization of its high-specification offshore rigs, which are in demand due to the ongoing exploration activities in deepwater regions. Additionally, Noble may also earn revenue from providing supplemental services, such as crew training and equipment maintenance. Significant partnerships with major oil producers enhance its revenue potential, as these collaborations often lead to multi-year contracts that ensure steady cash flow. Market dynamics, including oil prices and demand for offshore drilling capabilities, also play a crucial role in influencing the company's earnings.
Noble Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a fundamentally constructive and confident outlook driven by meaningful backlog growth, strong full-year 2025 financials, disciplined capital recycling, and targeted fleet reinvestment that underpin management's visibility to a substantial earnings and free cash flow inflection in 2027 (~$1.3B EBITDA and ~$600M FCF run-rate). Offsetting this optimism are clear near-term headwinds: lower 2025 Brent prices (-15% YoY), soft dayrates and present utilization gaps (82% present vs 95% contracted), elevated 2026 CapEx tied to strategic projects, Petrobras-related contract uncertainty in Brazil, and potential one-off cash exposures (e.g., up to $85M BOP lease buyout). On balance, the positive operational momentum, backlog quality, commercial wins, and capital allocation actions outweigh the near-term macro and timing challenges, but the recovery is contingent on market execution and demand crystallizing into 2026–2027.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Financial Results
Q4 contract drilling services revenue of $705,000,000, adjusted EBITDA of $232,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA margin of 30%. Q4 cash flow from operations was $187,000,000, CapEx was $152,000,000, and Q4 free cash flow was $35,000,000. Full-year 2025 revenue was $3,300,000,000 with adjusted EBITDA of $1,100,000,000 and full-year free cash flow of $454,000,000.
Backlog Growth and Bookings
Backlog increased to $7,500,000,000. Management highlighted ~30% year-over-year backlog growth (noted relative to a 15% YoY decline in Brent). Approximately $2,300,000,000 of backlog is scheduled to convert to revenue in the remainder of 2026, and year-two backlog currently exceeds prompt year backlog.
Material Commercial Wins
Key contract awards include: Noble Great White three-year contract in Norway with Aker BP valued at $473,000,000 (includes mobilization) with anticipated project EBITDA potential of ~$240,000,000 over three years; Noble Johnny D’Souza two-year contract in Nigeria valued at $292,000,000; Noble Developer three-well BP contract (Trinidad) at a $375,000/day dayrate starting in early 2027; Noble Black Rhino awarded one firm workover (~50 days) plus one option well in the U.S. Gulf. Additional multi-well awards and extensions across South America and Southeast Asia expand booked rig years.
Fleet Strategy and Capital Recycling
Completed sale of five jackups to Borr Drilling for $360,000,000 (cash proceeds $210,000,000 plus $150,000,000 seller note) and expected $64,000,000 sale of Noble Resolve (close in Q3). Strategic focus sharpened toward high-end deepwater and CJ70 jackup market, and planned reactivation and upgrade investments (e.g., Great White) to enhance NAV and capability.
Forward-Year Visibility and 2027 Run-Rate Goal
2026 guidance: revenue $2,800,000,000–$3,000,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA $940,000,000–$1,020,000,000. Management envisions a 2027 run-rate of ~ $1,300,000,000 in EBITDA and ~ $600,000,000 in free cash flow assuming 13 of 15 tier-one drillships working at current market rates and contribution from all three D rigs.
Maintained Shareholder Returns
Returned $80,000,000 to shareholders in Q4 via $0.50 per share dividend; board declared a $0.50 per share dividend for the current quarter, signaling continued capital return commitment.
Market Recovery Indicators
Contracted UDW rig count recovered to 105 from a recent low of 97 (+8 rigs, ~8.2% increase) and is approaching the 2024 high of 107. Marketed contracted utilization is 95% (with present working rigs at 90 representing an 82% present marketed utilization), and management noted improving demand pockets across South America, West Africa, Mediterranean/Black Sea, and Asia Pacific (Asia Pacific contracted rigs up from 4 to 8).
Negative Updates
Macro Headwinds — Lower Oil Prices
Average Brent crude price in 2025 was $68 per barrel, down ~15% year-over-year versus 2024, creating budgetary friction for customers and contributing to softer dayrates despite backlog growth.
Soft Near-Term Dayrates and Utilization Gaps
Management cited 'soft dayrates' with tier-one drillship fixtures around $400,000/day and lower-spec units in the low-to-high $300,000/day range. Present marketed utilization is 82% (90 rigs working) versus 95% contracted marketed utilization — a 13 percentage-point divergence reflecting a prompt white-space overhang.
Brazil / Petrobras Near-Term Uncertainty
Petrobras budget pressure has slowed contract execution and led to blend-and-extend negotiations; management expects Petrobras may pare back a few rigs in the near term, creating short-term uncertainty in Brazil where 34 of 44 South America contracted UDW rigs are in Brazil.
Elevated 2026 CapEx and Project-Driven Spending
2026 total CapEx guidance of $590,000,000–$640,000,000 (includes ~half of the Great White $160,000,000 project CapEx and other upgrade/upfront project costs). Management noted these investments push the free-cash-flow inflection from 2026 to 2027.
Idled Rigs, Contract Rollovers and Churn
Approximately 25 UDW floaters have contracts expiring during the year (similar rollover profile to 2025), and several rigs remain idle though contracted in the future. Six of 14 rigs idle today with future contracts are Noble rigs, highlighting short-term idle-time risk despite backlog depth.
Potential Additional Cash Outlays
Potential one-time cash outlay of up to $85,000,000 associated with a possible buyout of BOP leases on four 'black ships' is not included in CapEx guidance and represents execution/cash risk.
Fleet Items with Limited Near-Term Visibility
Some assets remain uncertain or targeted to niche/intervention work (e.g., Ocean Apex has limited near-term prospects; Globetrotter I being marketed into intervention/niche drilling), representing spot exposure for portions of the fleet.
Company Guidance
Noble guided 2026 revenue of $2.8–3.0 billion (including ~ $150 million of reimbursables) and adjusted EBITDA of $940–1,020 million, with Q1 EBITDA expected roughly flat to Q4 2025 and a modestly higher weighting in H2; they forecast total 2026 CapEx of $590–640 million (including roughly half of the $160 million Great White project, ~ $25 million of customer‑reimbursable CapEx, and ~ $50 million of additional project CapEx tied to recent $1.3 billion awards), cash taxes of ~11–12% of adjusted EBITDA, a favorable working capital reduction of ~ $100 million, and note a potential BOP lease buyout of up to $85 million (not in CapEx guidance). The company reported a $7.5 billion backlog (≈ $2.3 billion to convert in the remainder of 2026 and year‑two backlog slightly larger than 2026), ended Q4 2025 with revenue of $705 million, adjusted EBITDA of $232 million (30% margin), Q4 cash from operations $187 million and free cash flow $35 million, and FY2025 results of $3.3 billion revenue, $1.1 billion adjusted EBITDA, $497 million net CapEx and $454 million free cash flow. Looking through 2027, management illustrated a run‑rate scenario (13 of 15 tier‑one drillships working plus D‑rig contributions) of roughly $1.3 billion EBITDA and about $600 million free cash flow, and expects go‑forward sustaining CapEx to trend to the high $300s–$400 million range (excluding remaining Great White spend).Noble Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong recovery into solid profitability (2022–2024) and strong cash generation (2025 operating cash flow ~$952M; free cash flow ~$432M). Balance sheet leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.43–0.45) but debt has risen materially vs. 2022–2023. A major red flag is the 2025 annual revenue shown as 0 with -100% growth and 0% margins, conflicting with positive earnings/cash flow and reducing confidence in latest-year operating trend.Income Statement
Results show a strong recovery from 2020 losses to solid profitability in 2022–2024, with healthy margins in 2023–2024 and positive revenue growth in those years. However, 2025 annual revenue is reported as 0 with a -100% growth rate and 0% margins, which creates a major data-point red flag and makes the latest-year operating trend hard to validate despite positive EBIT and net income.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company has a sizable equity base (2025 equity of ~$4.55B vs. ~$1.98B total debt) and moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.43–0.45 in 2024–2025). A key weakness is the sharp increase in debt versus 2022–2023 levels (when leverage was much lower), reducing balance-sheet flexibility; returns on equity are positive but not consistently strong (mid-single digits in 2025 vs. higher in 2023–2024).68
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow rose to ~$952M in 2025 (annual) from ~$655M in 2024, and free cash flow improved to ~$432M with positive growth. The main drawback is volatility—2024 free cash flow was low relative to earnings, and earlier periods (notably 2021) showed weak operating cash flow and negative free cash flow—so cash conversion has not been consistently dependable through the cycle.75
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.29B | 3.06B | 2.59B | 1.41B | 847.81M |
| Gross Profit | 648.16M | 836.55M | 743.75M | 305.44M | -7.33M |
| EBITDA | 1.06B | 1.02B | 765.95M | 381.10M | 498.12M |
| Net Income | 216.72M | 448.35M | 481.90M | 168.95M | 352.21M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.53B | 7.96B | 5.51B | 5.23B | 2.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 471.40M | 247.30M | 360.79M | 476.21M | 194.14M |
| Total Debt | 1.98B | 2.08B | 611.87M | 672.77M | 233.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.98B | 3.31B | 1.59B | 1.63B | 572.82M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.55B | 4.65B | 3.92B | 3.61B | 1.50B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 432.15M | 80.16M | 164.76M | 106.67M | -162.87M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 951.68M | 655.48M | 574.34M | 280.99M | 6.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -350.07M | -959.02M | -366.51M | 375.77M | 193.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -373.93M | 188.08M | -325.79M | -367.77M | -367.94M |
Noble Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
45.52
Price Trends
33.90
Positive
31.57
Positive
29.06
Positive
Market Momentum
3.41
Negative
72.08
Negative
85.04
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.63, above the 50-day MA of 33.90, and above the 200-day MA of 29.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.08 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NE.
Noble Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $6.30B | 16.49 | 36.35% | ― | 6.81% | -61.94% | |
67 Neutral | $7.05B | 32.72 | 4.71% | 8.85% | 24.34% | -59.48% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $3.10B | -34.84 | -2.80% | 5.42% | -16.59% | 83.95% | |
65 Neutral | $6.85B | -1.95 | -31.70% | ― | 16.93% | -335.82% | |
62 Neutral | $2.72B | 89.53 | 1.18% | ― | -9.31% | -91.57% | |
54 Neutral | $3.47B | -11.29 | -11.41% | 3.24% | 35.89% | -148.39% |
* Energy Sector Average
NE
Noble Corporation
45.26
19.99
79.14%
HP
Helmerich & Payne
35.13
8.68
32.80%
PTEN
Patterson-UTI
8.36
0.51
6.50%
RIG
Transocean
6.39
3.06
91.89%
VAL
Valaris
93.50
52.61
128.66%
SDRL
Seadrill Limited
44.12
15.44
53.84%
Noble Corporation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Noble Corporation Reports Strong 2025 Results and Outlook
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
Noble Corporation plc reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 11, 2026, highlighting approximately $1.3 billion in new contract awards since October that lifted total backlog to $7.5 billion, and the completed sale of five jackups for $360 million with one more jackup divestiture expected to close in the third quarter of 2026. The company posted fourth-quarter contract drilling revenue of $705 million, net income of $87 million and free cash flow of $35 million, declared a $0.50 per share dividend for the first quarter of 2026, and issued 2026 guidance calling for $2.8 billion to $3.0 billion in revenue, Adjusted EBITDA of $940 million to $1.02 billion and capital expenditures of $590 million to $640 million, underscoring a tightening market, stronger fleet focus and continued capital returns to shareholders.
Noble’s operating metrics showed mixed trends, with marketed floater utilization at 62% and jackup utilization at 68% in the fourth quarter, while new awards with ExxonMobil, Aker BP, bp and others added 9.3 rig years and helped secure future work for idle rigs at dayrates in the $300,000 to $400,000 range. The balance sheet at year-end 2025 carried $2 billion of debt and $471 million in cash, and management emphasized that 2027 backlog already exceeds the current year’s, suggesting improving earnings power over time as the company leans on high-quality backlog, a streamlined fleet and a dividend-plus-buyback capital allocation strategy.
The most recent analyst rating on (NE) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Noble Corporation stock, see the NE Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.