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Norwegian Cruise Line
(NYSE:NCLH)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$23.00
▲(9.58% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/17/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (high leverage) and uneven free-cash-flow generation despite a clear operating recovery. Technicals are moderately positive with improving momentum, while valuation looks fair (P/E ~16) but lacks dividend support; corporate governance and dilution-related actions are an incremental positive.
Positive Factors
Post‑downturn revenue & profit recovery
The company has restored demand and returned to operating profit with a positive net margin ~4% in TTM 2026. That sustained top‑line recovery and normalized profitability support long‑term fixed cost coverage, route economics, and reinvestment across its three brands.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Debt‑heavy capital structure (debt/equity ~6.6x) leaves limited balance‑sheet flexibility for a cyclical travel operator. High leverage raises interest and refinancing risk, reduces capacity to absorb demand shocks, and constrains strategic investments absent sustained cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Post‑downturn revenue & profit recovery
The company has restored demand and returned to operating profit with a positive net margin ~4% in TTM 2026. That sustained top‑line recovery and normalized profitability support long‑term fixed cost coverage, route economics, and reinvestment across its three brands.
Read all positive factors
Norwegian Cruise Line Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be vulnerabilities or opportunities.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and where there might be vulnerabilities or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNorwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.48B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)19.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.7
Beta (1Y)1.62
Revenue Growth6.53%
EPS Growth-35.30%
CountryUS
Employees41,700
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.26
Shares Outstanding459,110,140
10 Day Avg. Volume15,936,255
30 Day Avg. Volume19,206,991
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)4.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.03
P/FCF Ratio-8.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.84
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.53Price Target Upside2.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)1.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.16B
Norwegian Cruise Line Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH), along with its subsidiary companies, operates as a major global cruise enterprise. Its operations span North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and other international markets. The company manages...
How the Company Makes Money
NCLH generates revenue primarily by operating cruise voyages and selling related travel and onboard products. Its core revenue stream is passenger ticket revenue (often referred to as passenger cruise revenue), which comes from selling cruise fare...
Norwegian Cruise Line Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of clear operational and financial progress (Q4 and FY2025 EBITDA, margin and EPS gains, cost discipline, strong luxury bookings, strategic fleet orders, and positive early results from Great Stirrup Cay) alongside meaningful near-term challenges driven by execution missteps, a premature 40% capacity increase in the Caribbean, behind-curve bookings, and revised 2026 top-line guidance (Q1 yield decline and full-year yields roughly flat). Management has refreshed leadership, is prioritizing revenue management and technology investment, and expects cost discipline to continue, but acknowledged that meaningful top-line recovery will take time to materialize given booking lead times. On balance, positive historical results and structural fixes are counterbalanced by material short-term execution and guidance headwinds, so the overall tone is cautious and focused on a multi-quarter turnaround.Positive Updates
Fourth Quarter Outperformance and Strong Q4 Metrics
Q4 net yields grew 3.8%; adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel per capacity day was $158 (up only 0.2%); adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $564,000,000; adjusted net income was $130,000,000 and adjusted EPS was $0.28 (note: excludes an ~ $95,000,000 / $0.20 IT-related write-off).
Negative Updates
Execution Missteps and Siloed Organizational Issues
Management identified significant execution failures and a siloed culture that produced poor coordination across deployment, pricing, marketing and revenue management—cited as the primary cause of recent underperformance and the need for rapid reorganization and accountability.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Fourth Quarter Outperformance and Strong Q4 Metrics
Q4 net yields grew 3.8%; adjusted net cruise cost ex fuel per capacity day was $158 (up only 0.2%); adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $564,000,000; adjusted net income was $130,000,000 and adjusted EPS was $0.28 (note: excludes an ~ $95,000,000 / $0.20 IT-related write-off).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 net yields to be down ~1.6% in Q1, stabilize and modestly improve by ~0.6% in the balance of the year (bringing full-year net yields to approximately flat), with Q1 adjusted net cruise cost excluding fuel down ~0.8%, unit costs up ~1.4% over the remaining nine months and ~0.9% for the full year; first-quarter adjusted operational EBITDA margin is expected to be ~29.1% (versus 28.4% in 2025) with Q1 adjusted EBITDA of ~$515M, full-year adjusted EBITDA of ~$2.95B (up ~8%), Q1 adjusted EPS of ~$0.16 and full-year adjusted EPS of ~$2.38 (up ~13%), while net leverage is expected to remain roughly flat at ~5.2x (temporarily ~+0.25 turn from deliveries of Norwegian Luna and Seven Seas Prestige), fuel is ~51% hedged for 2026 (27% for 2027), and the company reiterated its $300M+ cost-savings program and the expectation that cost discipline will keep unit cost growth well below inflation.Norwegian Cruise Line Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.03B | 9.83B | 9.48B | 8.55B | 4.84B | 647.99M |
| Gross Profit | 4.32B | 3.14B | 3.79B | 3.08B | 576.67M | -960.05M |
| EBITDA | 2.38B | 3.80B | 2.49B | 1.77B | -665.14M | -1.67B |
| Net Income | 568.21M | 423.25M | 910.26M | 166.18M | -2.27B | -4.51B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 23.79B | 22.54B | 19.97B | 19.49B | 18.56B | 18.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 185.05M | 209.89M | 190.76M | 402.42M | 946.99M | 1.75B |
| Total Debt | 15.15B | 14.61B | 13.92B | 14.06B | 13.62B | 12.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 21.36B | 20.33B | 18.54B | 19.19B | 18.49B | 16.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.43B | 2.21B | 1.43B | 300.81M | 68.59M | 2.43B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -949.08M | -1.17B | 838.87M | -744.65M | -1.57B | -3.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.22B | 2.09B | 2.05B | 2.01B | 210.02M | -2.47B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.17B | -3.26B | -1.23B | -2.90B | -1.76B | -1.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 950.98M | 1.19B | -1.03B | 346.86M | 986.22M | 1.68B |
Norwegian Cruise Line Technical Analysis
Positive
20.99
Price Trends
18.40
Positive
19.51
Positive
20.67
Negative
Market Momentum
0.24
Positive
51.59
Neutral
21.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCLH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.03, above the 50-day MA of 18.40, and above the 200-day MA of 20.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NCLH.
Norwegian Cruise Line Risk Analysis
Norwegian Cruise Line disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Norwegian Cruise Line reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Norwegian Cruise Line Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $31.24B | 22.33 | 147.58% | 0.56% | 10.01% | 33.63% | |
73 Outperform | $27.66B | 5.82 | 21.02% | 0.39% | 19.28% | 87.04% | |
73 Outperform | $43.71B | 37.35 | 148.16% | ― | 20.78% | 119.41% | |
69 Neutral | $75.35B | 17.45 | 45.86% | 1.09% | 9.74% | 34.02% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $8.48B | 15.72 | 27.04% | ― | 6.53% | -35.30% | |
58 Neutral | $5.40B | 116.76 | -38.21% | ― | 6.71% | -41.74% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line
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RCL
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Norwegian Cruise Line Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Norwegian Cruise Line Shareholders Approve Governance and Pay Changes
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings held its annual general meeting of shareholders in Miami, where investors voted on director elections, executive pay, incentive plan changes, auditor ratification and a governance proposal. Sharehol...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Norwegian Cruise Line Shifts Exchangeable Notes to Cash Settlement
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, NCL Corporation Ltd., a subsidiary of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., elected to irrevocably fix the settlement method to cash settlement for all exchanges of its 1.125% and 2.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2027, effective...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.