NovaBay Pharma (NBY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $37.62M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 447.54K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.12
• Revenue Growth: -74.73%
• EPS Growth: 95.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.15
• Shares Outstanding: 26,124,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 598,589
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 447,538
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): -396.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.23
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.73
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -4.66
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.9
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.80M

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-49.15% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 01/28/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 01/28/26

The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance (shrinking revenue, very large operating losses, and heavy cash burn). Technicals add near-term weakness with the stock below key short-term moving averages and low momentum readings. Valuation is difficult to assess favorably due to a negative P/E and no dividend, while recent financing-related corporate events raise dilution and strategic risk despite improving access to capital.

Positive Factors

High gross margin (~63%)

A sustained gross margin near 63% indicates durable product-level profitability for Avenova and similar topical formulations. Higher gross margins give the business flexibility to invest in marketing or R&D as revenue stabilizes, improving long-term operating leverage if sales recover.

Modest traditional leverage

Low reported debt and a modest debt-to-equity ratio provide financial flexibility versus highly leveraged biotech peers. Limited interest burden reduces short-term solvency risk and makes equity or strategic alternatives the primary financing lever, supporting survivability during cash burn periods.

Established commercial product and channels

Avenova provides a recurring, commercial revenue base via direct-to-consumer, healthcare provider sales and distributor/pharmacy channels. An existing product with market traction reduces binary clinical risk and supports ongoing cash generation potential relative to pure pre-revenue therapeutics.

Negative Factors

Sharp revenue decline

A roughly 40% TTM revenue decline signals weakening demand or market share loss for core products, which degrades operating leverage and makes fixed costs unsustainable. Restoring growth will require durable commercial execution and investment, raising medium-term execution risk.

Large operating losses and persistent cash burn

Deep negative operating margins and circa -$7M operating/free cash flow indicate structural cash burn. Sustained negative cash generation forces dependence on external financing, increases dilution risk, and constrains strategic options unless revenues or operating efficiency improve materially.

Pivot to crypto financing and concentrated governance rights

Accepting large token-based proceeds and granting investor board/consent rights concentrates strategic influence and exposes the treasury to volatile digital assets and regulatory scrutiny. This structural shift risks distraction from core ophthalmic commercialization and raises long-term governance and dilution concerns.

NovaBay Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a pharmaceutical company, develops and sells eyecare and skincare products in the United States and internationally. It offers Avenova, a solution for removing foreign materials, including microorganisms and debris from skin around the eye, such as the eyelid; and wound care products under the NeutroPhase and PhaseOne brands. The company also provides dermatological solutions to address skincare concerns comprising keratosis pilaris, rosacea and eczema, anti-aging, SPF, hyperhidrosis, excessive hair, and acne under the DERMAdoctor brand. It sells its products through retailers, digital beauty channels, and distributors, as well as online. The company was formerly known as NovaCal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in February 2007. NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

How the Company Makes Money

NovaBay generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Avenova product, which is marketed directly to consumers and healthcare providers. The company has established partnerships with various distributors and retail pharmacies to enhance product availability and sales. Additionally, NovaBay may explore licensing opportunities or collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies to expand its product offerings and reach in the market. Key revenue streams include direct product sales, potential royalties from partnerships, and any future product launches that align with its therapeutic focus.

NovaBay Pharma Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are weak: TTM revenue fell ~40%, operating losses are very large (TTM operating margin around -161%), and both operating cash flow and free cash flow are about -$7.0M, indicating ongoing cash burn and funding dependence. While gross margin is solid (~63%) and debt is modest, the recent positive net income appears non-operational given negative operating profit and cash flow.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue fell sharply (down ~40%), continuing a multi-year pattern of uneven growth. While gross margin remains solid (TTM ~63%), operating performance is very weak with deeply negative operating profitability (TTM operating margin around -161%), indicating the cost structure is far above the current revenue base. Net income is positive in TTM, but it does not align with the large operating loss, suggesting the profitability is not coming from core operations and is less repeatable.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is currently moderate with total debt of about $1.0M against equity of about $1.6M (debt-to-equity ~0.25 in TTM), which is a positive versus many small biotech peers. However, the balance sheet has been volatile: equity was negative in 2024 (making leverage metrics unstable), and total assets have contracted significantly versus earlier years, reducing the financial cushion. Overall, the company is not heavily levered today, but balance-sheet stability has been inconsistent.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a key weakness: TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are both about -$7.0M, and free cash flow deteriorated versus the prior period. The business is burning cash despite reporting positive TTM net income, implying earnings quality is weak and cash needs are likely ongoing. Sustained negative free cash flow increases reliance on external funding and raises dilution/financing risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.83M	9.78M	10.46M	14.40M	10.20M	9.93M
Gross Profit	1.54M	6.48M	6.08M	7.78M	6.51M	5.96M
EBITDA	-7.73M	-5.92M	-4.09M	-7.20M	-8.74M	-6.38M
Net Income	3.24M	-7.22M	-9.64M	-10.61M	-5.82M	-11.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.49M	3.42M	9.03M	16.40M	23.98M	15.24M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.31M	430.00K	3.13M	5.36M	7.50M	11.95M
Total Debt	970.00K	1.67M	2.74M	2.04M	551.00K	503.00K
Total Liabilities	1.85M	3.55M	5.72M	5.84M	13.81M	2.92M
Stockholders Equity	1.63M	-129.00K	3.31M	10.55M	10.17M	12.32M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-6.97M	-5.19M	-4.28M	-6.77M	-9.24M	-4.75M
Operating Cash Flow	-6.97M	-5.18M	-4.26M	-6.65M	-9.19M	-4.72M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	1.06M	-19.00K	-112.00K	-12.04M	-26.00K
Financing Cash Flow	-2.82M	1.50M	1.91M	4.63M	16.79M	9.76M

NovaBay Pharma Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.95
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.53, below the 50-day MA of 22.32, and below the 200-day MA of 8.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBY.

NovaBay Pharma Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
EVAX	50 Neutral	$19.96M	-0.34	―	―	4455.07%	77.31%
SXTP	46 Neutral	$3.29M	-0.11	-152.19%	―	192.72%	83.61%
JAGX	45 Neutral	$3.32M	-0.03	-370.95%	―	12.45%	-544.23%
SNGX	43 Neutral	$11.90M	-0.32	-169.32%	―	―	53.13%
NBY	41 Neutral	$37.62M	-0.19	-587.58%	―	-74.73%	95.81%

NovaBay Pharma Corporate Events

NovaBay Pharma Schedules Special Shareholder Meeting on Warrants

NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. scheduled a special meeting of stockholders for March 12, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time to consider key corporate actions. At the meeting, investors were set to vote on proposals to approve the issuance of common stock upon exercise of pre-funded warrants that had been issued in private placement transactions on October 16, 2025, and January 16, 2026, a step that could impact the company’s capital structure and shareholder base.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBY) stock is a Sell with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NovaBay Pharma stock, see the NBY Stock Forecast page.

NovaBay Pharma Establishes $100 Million ATM Equity Program

On January 20, 2026, NovaBay Pharmaceuticals entered into an at-the-market (ATM) sales agreement with Virtu Americas LLC, allowing the company to issue and sell up to $100 million of its common stock from time to time through Virtu acting as sales agent or principal, with sales to be conducted on the New York Stock Exchange or other existing trading markets under an effective shelf registration statement. NovaBay will pay Virtu a commission of up to 2.0% on gross proceeds from any stock sales, while retaining full discretion over whether, when and how much stock to sell, and either party may terminate the arrangement under specified conditions, giving the company a flexible mechanism to access additional equity capital as market conditions and corporate needs dictate.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBY) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NovaBay Pharma stock, see the NBY Stock Forecast page.

NovaBay Pharma Secures Crypto-Focused Financing, Shifts Strategy

On January 16, 2026, NovaBay Pharmaceuticals entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with a group of accredited digital-asset-focused investors, issuing pre-funded warrants for 837.7 million common shares at $0.17 per warrant for gross proceeds of roughly $134 million, paid in a mix of $25 million cash and about $109 million in SKY tokens and stablecoins. The pre-funded warrants, exercisable at $0.01 per share on a tiered schedule over 6–12 months subject to shareholder approval, give the investors significant future equity exposure while, in parallel, an Investors’ Rights Agreement grants them registration rights and board nomination rights, and consent rights over any material change in NovaBay’s digital asset strategy for two years. These transactions solidify NovaBay’s pivot toward a digital asset treasury model, leaving SKY as its initial core holding with more than 943 million SKY tokens acquired, and position the company to seek long-term participation in protocol-level economics of the Sky network, while concentrating strategic influence among a small group of crypto-native investors and increasing the company’s exposure to digital asset market, regulatory, and governance risks.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBY) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NovaBay Pharma stock, see the NBY Stock Forecast page.