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Evaxion Biotech (EVAX)
NASDAQ:EVAX
US Market

Evaxion Biotech (EVAX) AI Stock Analysis

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EVAX

Evaxion Biotech

(NASDAQ:EVAX)

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Neutral 50 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-8.81% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/22/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals (ongoing losses, negative free cash flow, and balance sheet instability) and bearish technicals. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call was notably positive due to the MSD deal extending runway and strong EVX-01 clinical updates, while valuation support is limited given the negative P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Big‑pharma validation & runway extension
MSD's option exercise provides both cash ($7.5M) and third‑party validation of Evaxion's AI‑discovered assets, materially extending runway into H2 2027. This validation increases partner credibility, de‑risks platform proofs and improves odds of future licensing deals and milestone revenue.
Robust EVX‑01 Phase II efficacy signal
A 75% objective response rate and high neoantigen immunogenicity (81% reported elsewhere) constitute a strong clinical proof‑of‑concept for the personalized vaccine approach. Durable efficacy increases probability of partnerships, out‑licensing, and supports broader platform credibility across oncology indications.
Scalable AI‑Immunology platform & therapeutic expansion
Expanding the AI‑Immunology platform into autoimmune indications broadens addressable markets and partnership opportunities. A new automated vaccine design module and planned autoimmune training improve R&D throughput and create a durable competitive advantage through platform scalability and faster candidate generation.
Negative Factors
Negative stockholders' equity
Negative equity reflects accumulated losses and limits traditional leverage metrics, constraining financing flexibility. This structural weakness elevates refinancing and covenant risk, making the company more dependent on dilutive equity or non‑traditional funding to sustain R&D and operations over the medium term.
Persistent negative operating cash flow
Ongoing negative operating cash flow means core operations do not self‑fund growth, forcing recurring external financing. Over months, R&D burn without operating inflows increases dilution risk and makes milestone delivery and partner timing critical to avoid disruptive capital raises.
Partner deal uncertainty and program delays
MSD declining EVX‑B2 and extended evaluation of some programs signal partner caution, prolonging timelines to out‑licensing and milestones. Reliance on external partners for commercialization exposes Evaxion to deal risk that can delay revenue realization and lengthen dependence on external capital.

Evaxion Biotech (EVAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Evaxion Biotech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEvaxion Biotech A/S, a clinical-stage biotech company, engages in developing artificial intelligence-powered immunotherapies for cancers, bacterial diseases, and viral infections. The company develops EVX-01, a cancer immunotherapy that is in clinical Phase IIb trial for metastatic melanoma; EVX-02, a DNA-based cancer immunotherapy that is in Phase IIa trial for adjuvant melanoma; and EVX-03, a DNA-based immunotherapy for the treatment of various cancers. Its programs also include EVX-B1, EVX-B2, and EVX-V1, which are vaccines that are in pre-clinical stage for the treatment of bacterial and viral diseases. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Hørsholm, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyEvaxion Biotech generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from partnerships and collaborations with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions. These partnerships often involve co-development agreements where Evaxion provides its AI technology and expertise for drug discovery in exchange for milestone payments, royalties, and potential profit-sharing arrangements. Additionally, the company may receive funding through government grants and investments aimed at supporting the development of its vaccine and immunotherapy candidates. As Evaxion advances its product candidates through clinical trials, it has the potential to secure further investments and partnerships, enhancing its revenue opportunities.

Evaxion Biotech Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and significant advancements in R&D, including a transformative deal with MSD and promising clinical data for EVX-01. However, market uncertainties and extended evaluation periods for deals, like EVX-B2, present challenges. Overall, the achievements and financial stability significantly outweigh the challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
MSD Transformative Deal
Evaxion's first ever in-licensing of an AI discovered vaccine candidate by a major pharma company, MSD, exercised their option on EVX-B3. This included a $7.5 million exercise fee, extending the company's cash runway significantly and potentially up to $592 million in future revenue.
Strong Financial Performance
The company extended its cash runway into the second half of 2027, strengthened equity with a USD 31.8 million improvement, and recorded a quarterly operational gain for the first time. The balance sheet showed a strong cash balance of USD 10.6 million by the end of the quarter.
Clinical Efficacy of EVX-01
Presented highly encouraging two-year clinical outcome data from the EVX-01 Phase II study with a 75% objective overall response rate and a 34% conversion rate, indicating significant potential for long-term control of melanoma.
Enhanced AI-Immunology Platform
The platform was expanded with a new automated vaccine design module, significantly reducing design time and accelerating development timelines, ensuring optimal sequence and conformation of vaccine targets.
Negative Updates
Market Uncertainty Affects Partnerships
Ongoing partnership discussions are impacted by market uncertainty, which affects the deal climate and may delay potential collaborations.
Extended Evaluation Period for EVX-B2
The evaluation period for EVX-B2 was extended as MSD is conducting further confirmatory analysis, indicating potential delays in finalizing the deal.
Company Guidance
During the third-quarter 2025 call, Evaxion provided comprehensive updates on its achievements and strategic developments. Key metrics included the historical in-licensing of EVX-B3 by MSD, resulting in a $7.5 million option exercise fee, which significantly extended the company's cash runway to the second half of 2027. The company also reported a 75% overall response rate in its EVX-01 Phase II study, with 81% of vaccine neoantigens being immunogenic. Financially, Evaxion achieved a USD 4.6 million income for the quarter, driven by the MSD deal and a strong equity position of USD 16.6 million. The company highlighted its enhanced AI-Immunology platform, which includes a new automated vaccine design module, reducing design time and accelerating development timelines. Evaxion is engaged in multiple partnership discussions and aims to out-license its programs, leveraging its AI capabilities for both internal projects and potential collaborations.

Evaxion Biotech Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revenue improved sharply in 2024, but the company remains unprofitable with negative EBIT/EBITDA, negative free cash flow, and a weak balance sheet highlighted by negative stockholders’ equity and reliance on external financing.
Income Statement
40
Negative
Evaxion Biotech's income statement shows a significant improvement in revenue from $73,000 in 2023 to $3,344,000 in 2024, indicating strong growth. However, the company continues to operate at a net loss, with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting ongoing challenges in controlling operating costs and achieving profitability.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet of Evaxion Biotech reveals financial instability, with negative stockholders' equity indicative of accumulated losses. The debt-to-equity ratio is undefined due to negative equity, presenting a risk. The company is heavily reliant on debt, which could challenge future financing.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Evaxion Biotech's cash flow statements show a negative free cash flow, although there was a notable improvement in net cash provided by financing activities. The operating cash flow remains negative, suggesting the company may struggle to cover its operational expenses without external financing.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Dec 2023Mar 2023Dec 2021Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.65M3.34M73.00K0.000.000.00
Gross Profit7.65M3.34M73.00K0.000.000.00
EBITDA-5.96M-9.79M-21.40M-22.57M-24.21M-16.46M
Net Income-5.42M-10.57M-22.13M-23.17M-24.53M-15.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets29.74M12.48M12.89M22.02M40.16M11.96M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments10.57M5.05M4.18M13.18M32.17M5.83M
Total Debt0.0010.10M10.87M10.26M3.69M20.00K
Total Liabilities13.14M14.14M17.62M13.72M7.73M4.93M
Stockholders Equity16.60M-1.65M-4.73M8.30M32.44M7.04M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00-12.94M-17.78M-26.07M-23.29M-12.83M
Operating Cash Flow0.00-12.94M-17.69M-25.77M-21.93M-12.44M
Investing Cash Flow0.00-3.00K-93.00K-268.00K-1.33M-393.00K
Financing Cash Flow0.0013.13M10.69M7.85M49.80M8.82M

Evaxion Biotech Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.29
Price Trends
50DMA
4.48
Negative
100DMA
5.19
Negative
200DMA
3.91
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.32
Negative
RSI
40.73
Neutral
STOCH
56.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.39, below the 50-day MA of 4.48, and below the 200-day MA of 3.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EVAX.

Evaxion Biotech Risk Analysis

Evaxion Biotech disclosed 117 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Evaxion Biotech reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Our failure to meet Nasdaq's continued listing requirements could result in a delisting of our ADSs. Q4, 2022
2.
Raising additional capital may cause dilution to our shareholders, restrict our operations or require us to relinquish rights to our technologies or product candidates. Q4, 2022
3.
The amount of NOLs and research and development credits and our ability to use the same to offset future taxable income may be subject to certain limitations and uncertainty. Q4, 2022

Evaxion Biotech Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
56
Neutral
$97.06M-1.83234.73%81.16%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
51
Neutral
$49.83M-1.2449.57%
50
Neutral
$20.97M-0.374455.07%77.31%
48
Neutral
$51.24M-1.22-14.92%72.81%
48
Neutral
$57.10M-5.23-3071.15%36.89%43.58%
47
Neutral
$24.39M-3.34-83.34%-6.51%58.31%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EVAX
Evaxion Biotech
3.29
0.85
34.84%
IGC
IGC Pharma
0.26
-0.02
-8.45%
QTTB
Q32 Bio
4.69
2.15
84.65%
VRCA
Verrica Pharmaceuticals
5.79
-1.10
-15.97%
ELUT
Elutia
1.08
-2.14
-66.46%
NRXS
NeurAxis, Inc.
5.53
3.25
142.54%

Evaxion Biotech Corporate Events

Evaxion Extends AI-Immunology Platform to Autoimmune Diseases and Sets 2026 Milestones
Jan 13, 2026

On January 13, 2026, Evaxion A/S announced that it is expanding its AI-Immunology platform into autoimmune diseases, adding this as a third core therapeutic area alongside cancer and infectious diseases. The move is intended to leverage the scalability of its AI technology to generate a broader and higher-quality pipeline of precision treatments that address underlying disease mechanisms rather than just symptoms, thereby enhancing the company’s partnership potential across all stages of drug development. Evaxion stated that the training of AI-Immunology for autoimmune applications is planned for the second half of 2026 and that this work is already incorporated into its financial plans, with its cash runway still expected to extend into the second half of 2027. The company also outlined key 2026 milestones, including additional biomarker and immunogenicity data and three-year Phase 2 efficacy data for EVX-01, a regulatory filing for a Phase 1 trial of EVX-04, a preclinical antigen design milestone for EVX-B4, and the launch of the new autoimmune application, underscoring continued execution of its strategy to create value from both its platform and pipeline assets through partnerships.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion to Outline 2026 Milestones at Biotech Showcase in San Francisco
Jan 7, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Evaxion A/S announced that it will present its 2026 company milestones and provide a corporate update at the Biotech Showcase conference in San Francisco, held January 12-14, 2026. Chief executive Helen Tayton-Martin is scheduled to speak on January 13, 2026, with Evaxion also planning broader engagement with potential business partners and other stakeholders during the week, coinciding with the high-profile J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, which could enhance the company’s visibility and partnering prospects in the biotech and life sciences investment community.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Retains Global Rights to Gonorrhea Vaccine EVX-B2 After MSD Declines Option
Dec 19, 2025

On December 19, 2025, Evaxion A/S reported that its collaboration partner MSD chose not to exercise an option to develop Evaxion’s gonorrhea vaccine candidate EVX-B2, leaving Evaxion with global rights and the ability to seek a new licensing partner for the asset. The company emphasized that preclinical data show EVX-B2 protects against gonorrhea, a disease affecting more than 80 million people annually with no approved vaccine, and noted that MSD’s decision does not affect Evaxion’s cash runway, which it says still extends into the second half of 2027; Evaxion also continues its separate mRNA-based EVX-B2 program with Afrigen Biologics and retains potential milestone and royalty upside from MSD’s earlier exercise of an option on a different vaccine candidate, EVX-B3.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Biotech Announces New ADS Offering to Raise $45.5 Million
Dec 10, 2025

On December 10, 2025, Evaxion Biotech A/S filed a prospectus supplement with the SEC for the offer and sale of American Depositary Shares (ADSs), each representing fifty ordinary shares, with an aggregate offering price of up to $45,527,824. This filing is part of their Capital on Demand Sales Agreement with JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC, and it updates previous prospectuses to facilitate the sale of ADSs. This strategic financial move aims to bolster Evaxion’s capital, potentially enhancing its market position and operational capabilities in the biotechnology sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Unveils Promising Data for AML Vaccine at ASH Meeting
Dec 8, 2025

On December 6, 2025, Evaxion A/S presented new data at the ASH Annual Meeting demonstrating the efficacy of their cancer vaccine candidate, EVX-04, for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The vaccine, developed using Evaxion’s AI-Immunology™ platform, targets non-conventional ERV tumor antigens and has shown promising results in preclinical models by inducing targeted immune responses and preventing tumor growth. This development could significantly improve treatment options for AML, a disease with high mortality rates and limited current therapies, and highlights the potential of AI-Immunology™ in creating transformative cancer treatments.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Reports Positive Data for CMV Vaccine Program
Nov 20, 2025

On November 20, 2025, Evaxion A/S announced positive data from its cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine program, EVX-V1. The program, which leverages Evaxion’s AI-Immunology™ platform, has identified novel antigens that significantly reduce viral infection in preclinical models. This advancement is crucial as no CMV vaccine has been approved despite decades of research, highlighting the importance of these findings. The company continues to optimize and investigate these AI-derived antigens while exploring strategic partnerships to advance the vaccine into clinical phases.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Hold with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Biotech Increases Share Capital Following Warrant Exercise
Nov 18, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Evaxion Biotech announced a share capital increase following the exercise of certain investor warrants. This resulted in the issuance of 1,875,000 ordinary shares, raising the company’s share capital to nominal DKK 104,252,689. The capital increase, registered with the Danish Business Authority, reflects a cash consideration of USD 101,625. This move is part of Evaxion’s strategic efforts to strengthen its financial position and potentially enhance its market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Hold with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion A/S Announces 2026 Financial Calendar
Nov 12, 2025

On November 12, 2025, Evaxion A/S announced its financial calendar for 2026, detailing key dates for business updates and financial results throughout the year. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it outlines the company’s timeline for financial disclosures and strategic updates, which are crucial for investors and market analysts to track the company’s progress and financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Unveils New Immune Data for AI-Designed Cancer Vaccine
Nov 7, 2025

On November 7, 2025, Evaxion A/S announced new immune data from its phase 2 trial of the AI-designed personalized cancer vaccine EVX-01 at the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) 2025 Annual Meeting. The data, which builds on previous clinical efficacy results, highlights the vaccine’s ability to induce specific immune responses in patients with advanced melanoma when used in combination with Merck’s anti-PD-1 therapy, KEYTRUDA®. This development further strengthens EVX-01’s data package and underscores its potential impact on cancer treatment, drawing significant interest from the medical community.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Evaxion Biotech Announces New CEO and Promising Vaccine Developments
Nov 6, 2025

On November 6, 2025, Evaxion A/S announced significant business developments and financial results for the third quarter of 2025. Key highlights include the appointment of Dr. Helen Tayton-Martin as the new CEO, effective November 24, 2025, and the presentation of promising phase 2 trial data for their personalized cancer vaccine, EVX-01, at the ESMO Congress. The company also reported the out-licensing of their bacterial vaccine candidate, EVX-B3, to MSD, which has extended their cash runway to the second half of 2027. These developments underscore Evaxion’s strategic focus on leveraging its AI-Immunology™ platform for vaccine innovation and expanding its market presence through strategic partnerships.

The most recent analyst rating on (EVAX) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evaxion Biotech stock, see the EVAX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 22, 2026