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Evaxion Biotech (EVAX)
NASDAQ:EVAX
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Evaxion Biotech
(NASDAQ:EVAX)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(15.21%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Stability
The potential cash infusion from Merck's option exercise could extend the company's cash runway into 2027, providing financial stability.
Strategic Partnerships
Management is on target to announce an infectious disease vaccine, which could aid in attracting additional partnerships and non-dilutive funding.
Technological Innovation
Evaxion is one of the pioneers and a front-runner in artificial intelligence (AI)-powered vaccine development.
Negative Factors
Market Competition
The potential of neoantigen vaccines, like Evaxion’s EVX-01, remains underappreciated, and it has demonstrated strong synergy with pembrolizumab in a Phase 2 study in metastatic melanoma.
Revenue Performance
Evaxion reported total revenues of $3.3M, which fell short of the consensus estimate of $4.5M.
Risk Factors
Risks to the Buy rating include partnership, technology, clinical, regulatory, commercial, legal and intellectual property, competition, and dilution.
Evaxion Biotech (EVAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.04M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)119.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.77
Revenue Growth2552.29%
EPS Growth60.70%
CountryUS
Employees46
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength48
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.01
Shares Outstanding6,316,572
10 Day Avg. Volume135,931
30 Day Avg. Volume119,657
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)-0.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-2.01
Enterprise Value/Market Cap341.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue274.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit314.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-17.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.00Price Target Upside360.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Evaxion Biotech Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEvaxion Biotech A/S, a clinical-stage biotech company, engages in developing artificial intelligence-powered immunotherapies for cancers, bacterial diseases, and viral infections. The company develops EVX-01, a cancer immunotherapy that is in clinical Phase IIb trial for metastatic melanoma; EVX-02, a DNA-based cancer immunotherapy that is in Phase IIa trial for adjuvant melanoma; and EVX-03, a DNA-based immunotherapy for the treatment of various cancers. Its programs also include EVX-B1, EVX-B2, and EVX-V1, which are vaccines that are in pre-clinical stage for the treatment of bacterial and viral diseases. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Hørsholm, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyEvaxion Biotech makes money primarily through partnerships and collaborations with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions. These partnerships often involve licensing agreements, where Evaxion provides access to its AI platforms and expertise in exchange for upfront payments, milestone fees, and royalties on sales of successfully developed therapies. Additionally, the company may receive funding through grants and research contracts aimed at furthering its drug discovery efforts. Strategic alliances are crucial for Evaxion, as they allow it to scale its research and development activities and bring its products to market with the support of established industry players.
Evaxion Biotech Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 27, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 15.43%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive outlook with strong R&D progress and a promising partnership with Merck, despite challenges posed by financial market uncertainties affecting deal execution.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Partnership with Merck on Track
The partnership with Merck is progressing towards a potential option exercise in the second half of the year, which could result in a $10 million milestone payment.
Strong R&D Progress
EVX-01 continues to yield positive data with 80% of new antigens eliciting an immune response. The first patient has been dosed in a one-year trial extension.
Improved Financial Position
Cash position improved to $17.8 million from $6 million, providing a runway until mid-2026, with operational cash burn estimated at $14 million for the year.
Active Scientific Engagement
Evaxion had a strong presence at several scientific conferences, crucial for engaging with potential partners and solidifying their multi-partner strategy.
Negative Updates
Financial Market Turmoil Impact
Current financial market turmoil and increased regulatory uncertainty are impacting deal execution, causing potential partners to pause discussions.
Limited Financial Income
Net loss of $1.6 million recorded in Q1, with financial income primarily from a reassessment of derivative liability rather than operational revenue.
Company Guidance
During the Evaxion First Quarter 2025 Conference Call, CEO Christian Kanstrup highlighted key metrics and developments. The company is on track to achieve significant milestones, including a potential $10 million option exercise with Merck in the latter half of the year. Their business development target remains to secure at least two new deals by year-end. R&D progress was notable, with EVX-01 showing promising data; 80% of its new antigens elicited an immune response. Financially, Evaxion strengthened its position, ending Q1 with $17.8 million in cash, up from $6 million at the end of 2024, and forecasts a $14 million operational cash burn for the year, extending its runway to mid-2026. The net loss for Q1 was $1.6 million, while equity improved to $10.3 million. The company remains focused on its multi-partner strategy and aims to maintain its momentum in the coming months.Evaxion Biotech Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Evaxion Biotech exhibits significant revenue growth, improving from $73,000 in 2023 to $3,344,000 in 2024. However, persistent net losses, negative cash flow, and reliance on debt underscore financial instability and risk.Income Statement
Evaxion Biotech's income statement shows a significant improvement in revenue from $73,000 in 2023 to $3,344,000 in 2024, indicating strong growth. However, the company continues to operate at a net loss, with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, reflecting ongoing challenges in controlling operating costs and achieving profitability.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Evaxion Biotech reveals financial instability, with negative stockholders' equity indicative of accumulated losses. The debt-to-equity ratio is undefined due to negative equity, presenting a risk. The company is heavily reliant on debt, which could challenge future financing.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Evaxion Biotech's cash flow statements show a negative free cash flow, although there was a notable improvement in net cash provided by financing activities. The operating cash flow remains negative, suggesting the company may struggle to cover its operational expenses without external financing.35
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 3.30M | 3.34M | 73.00K | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| 3.30M | 3.34M | 72.89K | -571.32K | -343.45K | -105.72K | EBIT |
| -15.10M | -14.73M | -22.20M | -25.26M | -25.83M | -16.57M | EBITDA |
| -9.23M | -9.77M | -21.40M | -22.58M | -24.17M | -16.46M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -11.50M | -10.57M | -22.13M | -23.17M | -24.53M | -15.02M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 4.58M | 5.05M | 5.58M | 13.18M | 32.17M | 5.83M | Total Assets |
| 15.19M | 12.48M | 12.89M | -58.94M | 40.16M | 11.96M | Total Debt |
| 0.00 | 10.10M | 10.87M | 2.25M | 3.69M | 20.00K | Net Debt |
| -4.58M | 5.05M | 5.29M | -10.93M | -28.48M | -5.81M | Total Liabilities |
| 15.19M | 14.14M | 17.62M | 13.72M | 7.73M | 4.93M | Stockholders Equity |
| 74.00K | -1.65M | -4.73M | -72.66M | -50.43M | 7.04M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -2.01M | -12.94M | -17.78M | -26.07M | -23.29M | -12.83M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -2.01M | -12.94M | -17.69M | -25.77M | -21.93M | -12.44M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 1.00K | -3.00K | -93.00K | -268.00K | -1.33M | -393.00K | Financing Cash Flow |
| 5.26M | 13.13M | 10.69M | 7.85M | 49.80M | 8.82M |
Evaxion Biotech Technical Analysis
Negative
2.17
Price Trends
1.91
Positive
2.09
Positive
6.13
Negative
Market Momentum
0.16
Positive
45.74
Neutral
6.02
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.52, above the 50-day MA of 1.91, and below the 200-day MA of 6.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EVAX.
Evaxion Biotech Risk Analysis
Evaxion Biotech disclosed 117 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Evaxion Biotech reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Our failure to meet Nasdaq's continued listing requirements could result in a delisting of our ADSs. Q4, 2022
2.
Raising additional capital may cause dilution to our shareholders, restrict our operations or require us to relinquish rights to our technologies or product candidates. Q4, 2022
3.
The amount of NOLs and research and development credits and our ability to use the same to offset future taxable income may be subject to certain limitations and uncertainty. Q4, 2022
Evaxion Biotech Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
56 Neutral | $9.19M | 4.67 | -41.13% | ― | ― | ― | |
53 Neutral | $5.24B | 3.32 | -44.36% | 6.63% | 16.78% | -0.12% | |
49 Neutral | $9.17M | ― | -451.34% | ― | ― | -57.84% | |
48 Neutral | $3.04M | ― | -205.75% | ― | 2552.29% | 60.70% | |
| $7.28M | 1.39 | 45.44% | ― | ― | ― | ||
40 Underperform | $9.78M | ― | -59.80% | ― | 157.63% | 40.52% | |
39 Underperform | $16.91M | ― | -285.79% | ― | ― | 23.65% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
EVAX
Evaxion Biotech
2.32
-11.88
-83.66%
KPRX
Kiora Pharmaceuticals
3.20
-0.52
-13.98%
PMCB
PharmaCyte Biotech
1.06
-0.89
-45.64%
APRE
Aprea Therapeutics
1.64
-2.37
-59.10%
DWTX
Dogwood Therapeutics
4.90
-1.85
-27.41%
ACXP
Acurx Pharmaceuticals
0.55
-1.78
-76.39%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.