NovaBay Pharma (NBY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $30.89M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 615.47K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.17
• Revenue Growth: -74.73%
• EPS Growth: 95.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.15
• Shares Outstanding: 26,124,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 912,675
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 615,471
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -7.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -19.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.78
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.11
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.9
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.80M

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-66.10% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/20/26

The score is driven primarily by very weak financial performance (revenue collapse, persistent losses, ongoing cash burn, and negative equity). Technicals also reflect bearish momentum with the stock trading below major moving averages. Corporate actions add funding flexibility but introduce meaningful dilution and strategy-risk concerns, while valuation metrics provide limited support due to negative earnings.

Positive Factors

High gross margin (~63%)

A sustained gross margin near 63% indicates durable product-level profitability for Avenova and similar topical formulations. Higher gross margins give the business flexibility to invest in marketing or R&D as revenue stabilizes, improving long-term operating leverage if sales recover.

Modest traditional leverage

Low reported debt and a modest debt-to-equity ratio provide financial flexibility versus highly leveraged biotech peers. Limited interest burden reduces short-term solvency risk and makes equity or strategic alternatives the primary financing lever, supporting survivability during cash burn periods.

Established commercial product and channels

Avenova provides a recurring, commercial revenue base via direct-to-consumer, healthcare provider sales and distributor/pharmacy channels. An existing product with market traction reduces binary clinical risk and supports ongoing cash generation potential relative to pure pre-revenue therapeutics.

Negative Factors

Sharp revenue decline

A roughly 40% TTM revenue decline signals weakening demand or market share loss for core products, which degrades operating leverage and makes fixed costs unsustainable. Restoring growth will require durable commercial execution and investment, raising medium-term execution risk.

Large operating losses and persistent cash burn

Deep negative operating margins and circa -$7M operating/free cash flow indicate structural cash burn. Sustained negative cash generation forces dependence on external financing, increases dilution risk, and constrains strategic options unless revenues or operating efficiency improve materially.

Pivot to crypto financing and concentrated governance rights

Accepting large token-based proceeds and granting investor board/consent rights concentrates strategic influence and exposes the treasury to volatile digital assets and regulatory scrutiny. This structural shift risks distraction from core ophthalmic commercialization and raises long-term governance and dilution concerns.

NovaBay Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a pharmaceutical company, develops and sells eyecare and skincare products in the United States and internationally. It offers Avenova, a solution for removing foreign materials, including microorganisms and debris from skin around the eye, such as the eyelid; and wound care products under the NeutroPhase and PhaseOne brands. The company also provides dermatological solutions to address skincare concerns comprising keratosis pilaris, rosacea and eczema, anti-aging, SPF, hyperhidrosis, excessive hair, and acne under the DERMAdoctor brand. It sells its products through retailers, digital beauty channels, and distributors, as well as online. The company was formerly known as NovaCal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in February 2007. NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

How the Company Makes Money

NovaBay has historically generated revenue primarily from product sales of Avenova and related eye-care offerings. The company’s revenue model is centered on (1) selling finished goods through commercial channels (including direct-to-consumer and professional/clinical recommendation pathways), where revenue is recognized from shipments/sales to customers, and (2) leveraging distribution and commercialization arrangements where a partner or distributor sells the product in certain channels or geographies and NovaBay earns revenue from product transfers to that partner and/or partner sales-based payments (the availability and exact structure of such payments varies by agreement). Additional revenue may come from licensing, collaborative agreements, or other arrangements tied to its underlying technology platform; however, if specific active agreements or material contribution levels are not publicly detailed for a given period, those specifics are null. Key factors influencing earnings include the size and growth of the dry-eye/blepharitis market, the effectiveness and cost of customer acquisition in consumer channels, uptake by eye-care professionals, pricing/discounting dynamics, and the stability and performance of any third-party manufacturing and distribution relationships.

NovaBay Pharma Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are severely pressured: revenue collapsed to $0 in the latest annual period, losses remain large (2025 EBIT -$33.2M; net loss -$22.1M), cash flow is consistently negative (2025 operating/free cash flow -$8.4M), and equity is deeply negative (2025 -$22.8M), elevating solvency and funding risk.

Income Statement

Operating performance is weak and deteriorating. Revenue fell from $9.8M (2024) to $0 (2025 annual), implying a severe disruption to the business model; prior years already showed declining sales (2022–2024). Profitability is consistently negative with sizable losses (2025 EBIT of -$33.2M and net loss of -$22.1M), and margins remain deeply loss-making in the years with revenue. While gross margin was healthy historically (roughly ~54%–66% in 2020–2024), it has not translated into bottom-line improvement, and the 2025 collapse overwhelms prior progress.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is highly stressed due to negative stockholders’ equity in 2024 (-$0.1M) and worsening in 2025 (-$22.8M), which materially increases financial risk and limits financing flexibility. Total debt is relatively low in absolute dollars ($0.8M in 2025), but leverage ratios are distorted by the negative equity and are not reassuring. Total assets declined sharply versus earlier years (down to $9.0M in 2025 from $16.4M in 2022), consistent with ongoing losses and balance sheet erosion.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains negative, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both below zero across all years, indicating continued cash burn (2025 operating/free cash flow of -$8.4M). A positive free cash flow growth figure in 2025 reflects a smaller burn versus the prior year rather than true cash generation, and the company still requires funding to sustain operations. Cash burn has not stabilized into a consistently improving trajectory, and the lack of profitable operations keeps cash flow quality weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.83M	0.00	9.78M	10.46M	14.40M	10.20M
Gross Profit	1.54M	0.00	6.48M	6.08M	7.78M	6.51M
EBITDA	-7.73M	-33.22M	-5.92M	-4.09M	-7.20M	-8.74M
Net Income	3.24M	-22.14M	-7.22M	-9.64M	-10.61M	-5.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.49M	9.04M	3.42M	9.03M	16.40M	23.98M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.31M	7.96M	430.00K	3.13M	5.36M	7.50M
Total Debt	970.00K	776.00K	1.67M	2.74M	2.04M	551.00K
Total Liabilities	1.85M	31.86M	3.55M	5.72M	5.84M	13.81M
Stockholders Equity	1.63M	-22.83M	-129.00K	3.31M	10.55M	10.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-6.97M	-8.43M	-5.19M	-4.28M	-6.77M	-9.24M
Operating Cash Flow	-6.97M	-8.43M	-5.18M	-4.26M	-6.65M	-9.19M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	0.00	1.06M	-19.00K	-112.00K	-12.04M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.82M	0.00	1.50M	1.91M	4.63M	16.79M

NovaBay Pharma Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.95
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.41, below the 50-day MA of 14.54, and below the 200-day MA of 8.91, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBY.

NovaBay Pharma Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EVAX	58 Neutral	$32.61M	-1.29	-61.62%	―	4455.07%	77.31%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
SXTP	46 Neutral	$4.82M	-0.59	-212.63%	―	192.72%	83.61%
JAGX	45 Neutral	$1.57M	-0.09	-710.57%	―	12.45%	-544.23%
NBY	43 Neutral	$30.89M	-7.41	-120.33%	―	-74.73%	95.81%
SNGX	43 Neutral	$12.10M	-0.50	-267.10%	―	―	53.13%

NovaBay Pharma Corporate Events

NovaBay Pharma Expands Share Capital and Governance Flexibility

On March 12, 2026, NovaBay Pharmaceuticals amended and restated its certificate of incorporation in Delaware, removing a ban on stockholder action by written consent, adding limited officer exculpation provisions, and raising its authorized common stock to 5 billion shares. These governance and capital changes, approved by the board and stockholders, significantly expand NovaBay’s flexibility for future financings and corporate actions.

At the March 12, 2026 special meeting, stockholders also approved issuing shares underlying pre-funded warrants from private placements in January 2026 and October 2025, adopted a 2026 Equity Incentive Plan, and confirmed charter changes aligning with Delaware corporate law. Collectively, these approvals cement prior financing arrangements, broaden the share pool for strategic and compensation purposes, and may reshape the company’s ownership structure and governance dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBY) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NovaBay Pharma stock, see the NBY Stock Forecast page.

NovaBay Pharma Implements Reverse Stock Split of Shares

On February 20, 2026, NovaBay Pharmaceuticals implemented a 1‑for‑5 reverse stock split of its common shares following prior approval from shareholders on October 16, 2025 and subsequent board authorization on February 11, 2026. The reverse split became effective at 4:15 p.m. Eastern and combined every five issued and outstanding shares into one share without changing the par value.

No fractional shares were issued; instead, investors who would have received fractional shares were granted an additional whole share, leaving each stockholder’s ownership percentage in the company essentially unchanged. Authorized common shares remain at 1.5 billion, and NovaBay’s stock will begin trading on a split‑adjusted basis on the NYSE American under the unchanged symbol “NBY” on February 23, 2026, with a new CUSIP assigned to the shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBY) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NovaBay Pharma stock, see the NBY Stock Forecast page.

NovaBay Pharma Announces 1-for-5 Reverse Stock Split

On February 11, 2026, NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. announced that its board had approved a 1‑for‑5 reverse stock split of its common stock, following stockholder authorization at the annual meeting on October 16, 2025. The split is scheduled to become effective on February 20, 2026, with split‑adjusted trading to begin on the NYSE American under the unchanged ticker NBY on February 23, 2026.

The reverse stock split will consolidate every five existing shares into one share, cutting the number of shares outstanding from about 130.6 million to roughly 26.1 million, while leaving authorized share counts and par values unchanged. NovaBay expects the action to lift its per‑share price to help maintain compliance with NYSE American’s minimum price listing requirements, while investors’ proportional ownership and voting rights will remain the same, aside from the issuance of additional whole shares in lieu of fractional interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBY) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NovaBay Pharma stock, see the NBY Stock Forecast page.

NovaBay Pharma Schedules Special Shareholder Meeting on Warrants

NovaBay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. scheduled a special meeting of stockholders for March 12, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time to consider key corporate actions. At the meeting, investors were set to vote on proposals to approve the issuance of common stock upon exercise of pre-funded warrants that had been issued in private placement transactions on October 16, 2025, and January 16, 2026, a step that could impact the company’s capital structure and shareholder base.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBY) stock is a Sell with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NovaBay Pharma stock, see the NBY Stock Forecast page.

NovaBay Pharma Establishes $100 Million ATM Equity Program

On January 20, 2026, NovaBay Pharmaceuticals entered into an at-the-market (ATM) sales agreement with Virtu Americas LLC, allowing the company to issue and sell up to $100 million of its common stock from time to time through Virtu acting as sales agent or principal, with sales to be conducted on the New York Stock Exchange or other existing trading markets under an effective shelf registration statement. NovaBay will pay Virtu a commission of up to 2.0% on gross proceeds from any stock sales, while retaining full discretion over whether, when and how much stock to sell, and either party may terminate the arrangement under specified conditions, giving the company a flexible mechanism to access additional equity capital as market conditions and corporate needs dictate.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBY) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NovaBay Pharma stock, see the NBY Stock Forecast page.

NovaBay Pharma Secures Crypto-Focused Financing, Shifts Strategy

On January 16, 2026, NovaBay Pharmaceuticals entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with a group of accredited digital-asset-focused investors, issuing pre-funded warrants for 837.7 million common shares at $0.17 per warrant for gross proceeds of roughly $134 million, paid in a mix of $25 million cash and about $109 million in SKY tokens and stablecoins. The pre-funded warrants, exercisable at $0.01 per share on a tiered schedule over 6–12 months subject to shareholder approval, give the investors significant future equity exposure while, in parallel, an Investors’ Rights Agreement grants them registration rights and board nomination rights, and consent rights over any material change in NovaBay’s digital asset strategy for two years. These transactions solidify NovaBay’s pivot toward a digital asset treasury model, leaving SKY as its initial core holding with more than 943 million SKY tokens acquired, and position the company to seek long-term participation in protocol-level economics of the Sky network, while concentrating strategic influence among a small group of crypto-native investors and increasing the company’s exposure to digital asset market, regulatory, and governance risks.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBY) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NovaBay Pharma stock, see the NBY Stock Forecast page.