NCR Atleos, LLC (NATL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: -0.14%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 1.49
• Shares Outstanding: 73,667,620
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,281,386
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,276,032
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.95
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.93
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.22
• 1Y Price Target: $50.27
• Price Target Upside: 18.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.81
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.54B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $49.00 ▲(15.73% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profit rebound and solid cash generation) and supportive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Valuation is reasonable on P/E, while earnings-call guidance and recent merger-related corporate events add a modest positive tilt, tempered by historical leverage risk and cited operational headwinds (tariffs and network transaction softness).

Positive Factors

Improving cash generation

Consistent operating cash flow in the mid-$300M range and FCF of $239M in 2025 indicate durable internal funding capacity. This strengthens the company’s ability to service debt, finance ATMaaS expansion and support integration or investments without relying solely on external capital.

Recurring ATMaaS and hardware growth

Rapid ARR and contract-booking growth in ATM-as-a-Service and double-digit self-service hardware revenue expansion point to structurally rising recurring and platform revenues. This mix improves revenue visibility and supports margin expansion as services scale over multiple years.

Strategic merger and reduced financing risk

A planned merger with Brink’s and successful indenture amendments materially reduce change-of-control uncertainty while creating scale, logistics and cash-management complements. The combination targets significant synergies and leverage reduction, improving long-term competitive positioning and capital structure flexibility.

Negative Factors

Historical leverage vulnerability

Although leverage improved in 2025, the prior extreme indebtedness and a relatively small equity base leave the company sensitive to downturns or integration setbacks. Limited equity cushion constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risks if operating cash flow weakens.

Thin and volatile net margins

Low net margins around single digits limit the firm’s ability to absorb cost shocks or invest aggressively. Combined with episodic profit volatility (loss in 2023), this pressure reduces resilience and means sustained scale or efficiency gains are required to make margins reliably durable.

Tariff and network revenue headwinds

Tariff exposure and weak prepaid payroll card volumes introduce persistent cost and revenue uncertainty for hardware and transaction-linked segments. These structural headwinds can compress hardware margins and reduce transactional revenue predictability absent product or pricing offsets.

NCR Atleos, LLC Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NCR Atleos Corporation, a financial technology company, provides self-directed banking solutions to financial institutions, merchants, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers in the United States, rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Self-Service Banking; Network; and Telecommunications & Technology (T&T). The company offers solutions, including a line of automated teller machine (ATM) hardware and software, as well as elated installation, maintenance, and managed and professional services; and ATM as a service to manage and run for financial institutions that include back office, cash management, software management, and ATM deployment. It also provides network of ATMs and multi-functioning financial services kiosks for financial institutions, financial technology companies, neobanks, and retailers; Allpoint network which provides cash withdrawal and deposit access to credit unions, banks, digital banks, fintechs, stored-value debit card issuers, and other consumer financial services providers; and ATM branding solutions to financial institutions, ATM management and services to retailers and other businesses, and LibertyX solution which gives consumers the ability to buy and sell Bitcoin. In addition, the company offers managed network and infrastructure services to enterprise clients across various industries through communications service providers and technology manufacturers; and professional, field, and remote services for modern network technologies, including software-defined wide area networking, network functions virtualization, wireless local area networks, optical networking, and edge networks. NCR Atleos Corporation was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

NCR Atleos makes money primarily by operating and servicing ATM and self-service banking infrastructure for banks, credit unions, retailers, and independent ATM operators. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) managed services fees for operating ATMs on behalf of customers (e.g., end-to-end ATM management, monitoring, field service/maintenance, and related operational support); (2) cash management and cash-in-transit coordination/services, where the company is paid for planning and managing cash replenishment and associated logistics (often delivered via third-party armored carriers); (3) network and transaction-based revenues, where the company earns fees tied to ATM transactions routed or enabled through its network and software platforms; and (4) software, platform, and other service revenues supporting ATM driving, security, fleet management, and channel enablement for self-service banking. Significant factors influencing earnings can include the scale of the installed/managed ATM base, transaction volumes (which are sensitive to consumer cash usage patterns), contract mix between recurring managed services versus transaction-linked fees, and reliance on third-party service providers (e.g., armored cash carriers and field service partners) to deliver parts of the service chain.

NCR Atleos, LLC Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Improving profitability (loss in 2023 to $91M net income in 2024 and $162M in 2025) and steady-to-modestly rising revenue, supported by solid operating cash flow and higher 2025 free cash flow. The main constraint is balance-sheet risk given historically extreme leverage in 2023–2024, even though leverage improved materially in 2025; net margins remain relatively thin.

Income Statement

Revenue has been steady to modestly rising from 2023–2025 (2025 up slightly vs. 2024), and profitability improved meaningfully with net income rebounding from a loss in 2023 to $91M in 2024 and $162M in 2025. Gross margin also trended up (about 22% in 2022–2023 to ~24% in 2024–2025), supporting earnings resilience. Offsetting this, net margins remain thin (~3.7% in 2025) and results show some volatility (notably the 2023 loss), which limits the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears improved in 2025, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.56 versus very elevated levels in 2023–2024 (around 11x), which is a major positive shift for financial risk. Total assets have been relatively stable, and return on equity is high in 2024–2025, reflecting improved profitability on a relatively small equity base. The key weakness is the historical balance-sheet risk signaled by the prior two years’ extreme leverage and low equity cushion, which increases sensitivity if operating conditions soften.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and consistent: operating cash flow has held in the mid-$300M range in 2023–2025, and free cash flow improved to $239M in 2025. Free cash flow also covers a majority of net income (about 67% in 2025), indicating earnings are translating reasonably well into cash. The main negatives are year-to-year free-cash-flow volatility (down in 2024 before rebounding in 2025) and only moderate cash coverage versus the company’s overall capital base, suggesting limited room for error if cash needs rise.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.35B	4.32B	4.19B	4.13B	3.55B
Gross Profit	1.06B	1.03B	933.00M	919.00M	892.00M
EBITDA	736.00M	449.00M	451.00M	447.00M	459.00M
Net Income	162.00M	91.00M	-134.00M	108.00M	186.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.67B	5.55B	5.74B	5.77B	5.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	456.00M	419.00M	339.00M	293.00M	238.00M
Total Debt	225.00M	3.05B	3.12B	884.00M	1.46B
Total Liabilities	5.27B	5.29B	5.45B	2.51B	3.24B
Stockholders Equity	403.00M	260.00M	284.00M	3.26B	2.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	239.00M	205.00M	223.00M	177.00M	338.00M
Operating Cash Flow	356.00M	344.00M	355.00M	274.00M	449.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-116.00M	-135.00M	-316.00M	-417.00M	-2.49B
Financing Cash Flow	-253.00M	-134.00M	31.00M	183.00M	2.35B

NCR Atleos, LLC Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 42.34
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NATL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.03, above the 50-day MA of 41.33, and above the 200-day MA of 36.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.80 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NATL.

NCR Atleos, LLC Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AGYS	71 Outperform	$1.99B	83.96	10.50%	―	17.77%	-76.05%
NATL	70 Outperform	$3.12B	17.29	49.78%	―	-0.14%	―
RNG	66 Neutral	$3.16B	57.31	-8.90%	―	5.45%	―
ALRM	66 Neutral	$2.20B	19.16	16.41%	―	7.35%	2.44%
DBD	65 Neutral	$2.51B	26.41	8.82%	―	-2.86%	985.78%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
BL	54 Neutral	$2.33B	168.71	6.57%	―	7.36%	-40.62%

NCR Atleos, LLC Corporate Events

NCR Atleos Advances Brink’s Merger with Noteholder Consent

On March 11, 2026, NCR Atleos Corporation announced that it had successfully completed a consent solicitation to amend the indenture governing its 9.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2029, securing the required majority support from noteholders. The company, its subsidiary guarantors and Citibank, N.A., then executed a supplemental indenture that, among other changes, ensures its planned merger with The Brink’s Company will not be treated as a change of control under the notes, reducing the risk of triggering investor protection clauses and providing greater financing and transactional certainty around the deal.

The supplemental indenture became effective immediately and is binding on all holders of the notes, including those who did not consent, though the operative amendments will take effect only immediately prior to the first effective time of the merger and lapse if the merger is not completed or the consent fee is not paid. The move clarifies the treatment of the pending Brink’s transaction in NCR Atleos’ capital structure and is aimed at smoothing the integration process, stabilizing creditor expectations and supporting execution of the merger within the existing debt framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (NATL) stock is a Hold with a $50.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCR Atleos, LLC stock, see the NATL Stock Forecast page.

NCR Atleos Seeks Noteholder Consents for Brink’s Merger

On March 5, 2026, NCR Atleos announced it had begun soliciting consents from holders of its 9.500% Senior Secured Notes due 2029 to amend the indenture governing those notes, in connection with its planned merger with The Brink’s Company. The proposed changes would ensure the two-step merger structure with Brink’s does not trigger a Change of Control under the notes, aligning the capital structure with the pending transaction while leaving completion of the merger itself independent of the consent outcome.

Noteholders who deliver consents by the March 11, 2026 expiration date and do not revoke them before the revocation deadline would be eligible for a cash payment of $1.25 per $1,000 in principal, provided a majority consents are obtained and the mergers close. Any supplemental indenture would bind all noteholders once executed, meaning the amendments could apply even to investors who do not participate, underscoring the importance of the solicitation for creditors assessing their protections as the Brink’s deal progresses.

The most recent analyst rating on (NATL) stock is a Hold with a $50.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCR Atleos, LLC stock, see the NATL Stock Forecast page.

Brink’s to Acquire NCR Atleos in $6.6 Billion Merger

On February 26, 2026, NCR Atleos and The Brink’s Company announced a definitive merger agreement under which Brink’s will acquire NCR Atleos in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at about $6.6 billion, including assumed debt. The deal, unanimously approved by both boards and expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, will give NCR Atleos shareholders $30 in cash and 0.1574 Brink’s shares per NATL share, implying a 24% premium to NCR Atleos’ prior-day closing price.

The transaction will create a leading financial technology infrastructure group by combining Brink’s global cash management and route-based logistics with NCR Atleos’ large installed ATM base, software and ATMaaS outsourcing platform. Brink’s expects the combined company to generate roughly $10 billion in annual revenue, deliver at least 35% earnings-per-share accretion and realize about $200 million in annual run-rate cost synergies within three years, while using the enlarged cash flow to deleverage and expand in higher-margin ATM managed services and digital retail solutions.

Under the merger structure, NCR Atleos will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Brink’s through two sequential mergers, and its stock will be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange upon closing. Equity awards held by NCR Atleos employees will largely be converted into Brink’s-based awards on adjusted terms, while outstanding stock options in the money will be cashed out based on the merger consideration, reinforcing alignment between the workforce and the future combined entity.

Completion of the deal remains subject to shareholder approvals at both companies, expiration of antitrust waiting periods, various domestic and foreign regulatory and money-transmitter clearances, and customary conditions around accuracy of representations and the absence of material adverse effects. The merger agreement restricts both sides from soliciting competing bids but permits each board, under defined “superior proposal” or intervening event scenarios, to change its recommendation or terminate the agreement, subject to reciprocal termination fees of $145 million for NCR Atleos and $175 million for Brink’s.

Brink’s has secured $4.5 billion in committed bridge financing to fund the cash component and refinance debt, with plans to use the combined entity’s strong free cash flow to reduce leverage to a targeted 2.0–3.0 times range by the end of 2027. Governance arrangements include retaining Brink’s CEO Mark Eubanks and CFO Kurt McMaken in their roles and adding one mutually agreed independent NCR Atleos director to the Brink’s board, signaling a measured integration of leadership as the company seeks to scale its global ATM and digital retail services footprint.

The most recent analyst rating on (NATL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCR Atleos, LLC stock, see the NATL Stock Forecast page.

NCR Atleos Extends Executive Non-Compete Terms, Adjusts Equity

On December 17, 2025, NCR Atleos Corporation’s Compensation and Human Resource Committee approved a new standalone restrictive covenant agreement for several senior executives, including its CEO, CFO, COO and General Counsel, extending their post-employment non-competition obligations to 24 months to provide stronger and more consistent protection for the company’s trade secrets. The committee also accelerated by roughly two months the vesting date of one-third of the executives’ outstanding time-based 2024 and 2025 restricted stock unit awards to December 19, 2025, while leaving all other terms, including the original one-year post-vesting holding period, unchanged, thereby adjusting executive equity incentives without altering longer-term retention conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (NATL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCR Atleos, LLC stock, see the NATL Stock Forecast page.