Mazda Motor (MZDAY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.94B
• Dividend Yield: 4.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: -0.25%
• EPS Growth: -77.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 48,783
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 1,263,608,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 0
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,606
• PEG Ratio: -0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.12
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 125.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.28
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▲(10.29% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by weak recent financial performance—especially the sharp deterioration in cash flow, contracting revenue, and compressed profitability—despite a relatively stable balance sheet. Technicals are a near-term positive with strong trend and momentum, but overbought signals add risk. Valuation is a key headwind due to the very high P/E, partially offset by a ~4% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Improving debt-to-equity and growing equity provide a durable financial buffer that lowers refinancing risk and preserves capacity for capex, product investment and R&D. This balance-sheet flexibility helps Mazda absorb cyclicality and support strategic initiatives over months.

Stable manufacturing margins

Historically stable gross margins indicate Mazda's cost structure and product mix sustain unit-level profitability even if volumes dip. This margin resiliency supports long-term recovery potential and the ability to fund engineering, electrification and quality improvements.

Proven free cash flow generation

A track record of strong free cash flow in recent years shows Mazda's operations can convert earnings into cash when demand and margins normalize. That historical FCF capacity supports dividends, deleveraging and reinvestment once working-capital pressures ease.

Negative Factors

Revenue contraction

A near-20% TTM revenue decline erodes scale, dealer economics and fixed-cost absorption. Sustained top-line weakness undermines pricing power and reduces resources for model refreshes and electrification, lengthening the timeline to restore profitability and market share.

Compressed profitability and returns

Material margin compression and a collapse in ROE reduce internal funding for strategic investments and weaken shareholder returns. Persistently low profitability pressures dividends, R&D budgets and may force cost restructuring or product-mix shifts to regain sustainable returns.

Deteriorating cash generation

Negative operating cash flow and sharply negative free cash flow point to working-capital strain or elevated investments. Ongoing cash deficits can force additional borrowing or asset measures, constraining capex, EV investments and strategic flexibility over the next several quarters.

Mazda Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mazda Motor Corporation engages in the manufacture and sale of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in Japan, North America, Europe, and internationally. Its principal products include four-wheeled vehicles, gasoline reciprocating engines, diesel engines, and automatic and manual transmissions for vehicles. The company was formerly known as Toyo Kogyo Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Mazda Motor Corporation in May 1984. Mazda Motor Corporation was incorporated in 1920 and is headquartered in Hiroshima, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Mazda generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vehicles, which includes passenger cars, SUVs, and commercial vehicles. The company operates on a traditional automotive sales model, where it sells vehicles through a network of dealerships worldwide. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of vehicles, parts and accessories, and after-sales services. Additionally, Mazda has partnerships with other automotive manufacturers and suppliers, which can enhance its product offerings and optimize production costs. The company also engages in financing services for customers and dealers, providing another source of income through interest and fees associated with vehicle financing.

Mazda Motor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Latest TTM results show clear pressure: revenue down ~19.8%, net margin compressed to ~0.7%, and returns weakened (ROE ~1.9% TTM). The balance sheet is comparatively steady with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.40–0.47), but cash generation is a major concern with slightly negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow versus strong prior years.

Income Statement

Profitability and growth have clearly weakened in the most recent period. In TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), revenue fell ~19.8% and net margin compressed to ~0.7% versus ~2.3% in FY2025 and ~4.3% in FY2024. While gross margin has been relatively stable around the ~18–22% range historically, the sharp drop in bottom-line profitability and the lower earnings profile in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) point to higher cost pressure and/or weaker pricing/mix. Offsetting that, the company delivered strong growth and healthy margins in FY2023–FY2024, showing the model can generate solid profitability in a better demand environment.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for the sector, with debt-to-equity improving from ~0.64 (FY2021) to ~0.40–0.47 (FY2025 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). Equity has grown over time, providing a reasonable buffer. However, returns have cooled materially: return on equity declined from ~12.0% (FY2024) to ~6.4% (FY2025) and ~1.9% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating the balance sheet is currently generating weaker shareholder returns despite moderate leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has deteriorated sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with operating cash flow slightly negative and free cash flow deeply negative, a major swing from strong positive operating and free cash flow in FY2024–FY2025. This disconnect from earnings (free cash flow running below net income in the latest period) raises concerns around working-capital strain and/or heavier investment needs. The key positive is that the company has demonstrated the ability to produce substantial free cash flow in prior years (notably FY2024), suggesting the current cash weakness may be cyclical—but it is still a near-term risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.87T	5.02T	4.83T	3.83T	3.12T	2.88T
Gross Profit	720.10B	1.08T	1.04T	801.52B	687.70B	613.64B
EBITDA	145.09B	283.42B	419.51B	284.40B	194.51B	98.58B
Net Income	9.29B	114.08B	207.70B	142.81B	81.56B	-31.65B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.22T	4.09T	3.79T	3.26T	2.97T	2.92T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.14T	1.21T	922.56B	717.10B	740.39B	739.00B
Total Debt	898.88B	723.00B	575.79B	627.13B	680.81B	755.93B
Total Liabilities	2.38T	2.28T	2.03T	1.80T	1.65T	1.72T
Stockholders Equity	1.81T	1.79T	1.74T	1.44T	1.30T	1.18T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-98.05B	177.36B	303.65B	38.30B	49.80B	34.02B
Operating Cash Flow	-5.48B	305.63B	418.89B	137.42B	189.16B	120.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-149.91B	-199.96B	-179.89B	-99.43B	-136.24B	-78.86B
Financing Cash Flow	163.49B	90.07B	-84.70B	-89.86B	-86.41B	99.35B

Mazda Motor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.08
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MZDAY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.23, above the 50-day MA of 4.04, and above the 200-day MA of 3.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MZDAY.

Mazda Motor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TM	78 Outperform	$307.78B	8.55	10.34%	2.57%	7.28%	12.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
HMC	59 Neutral	$37.02B	9.64	4.11%	4.19%	0.32%	-25.51%
GM	57 Neutral	$71.05B	27.72	4.34%	0.69%	-1.29%	-49.96%
F	56 Neutral	$51.11B	-6.38	-20.26%	5.64%	3.75%	33.37%
MZDAY	53 Neutral	$4.94B	6.12	1.72%	4.59%	-0.25%	-77.23%
NIO	45 Neutral	$10.54B	-9.00	-296.44%	―	14.94%	2.53%