Mueller Water Products (MWA)
NYSE:MWA
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Mueller Water Products
(NYSE:MWA)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$29.00
▼(-0.24% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (material margin and earnings improvement with deleveraging) and a constructive earnings update (raised EBITDA guidance and solid liquidity). These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and only mid-range valuation support (P/E ~18 and ~1% yield), plus ongoing cash-flow and demand risks highlighted on the call.
Positive Factors
Sustained Margin Expansion
Margin expansion reflects durable pricing power and manufacturing efficiencies, boosting operating leverage and ROE. Higher structural margins provide a multi-quarter buffer against volume swings, enable reinvestment in operations and support sustained profitability even if top-line growth slows.
Negative Factors
Volatile Free Cash Flow & Working Capital
Material swings in cash conversion driven by inventory builds and working-capital variability reduce the predictability of cash available for dividends, buybacks or acquisitions. Persistent FCF volatility can constrain strategic flexibility and raise refinancing or funding risk in downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Margin Expansion
Margin expansion reflects durable pricing power and manufacturing efficiencies, boosting operating leverage and ROE. Higher structural margins provide a multi-quarter buffer against volume swings, enable reinvestment in operations and support sustained profitability even if top-line growth slows.
Read all positive factors
Mueller Water Products (MWA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.99B
Dividend Yield1.09%
Average Volume (3M)1.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.2
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth6.57%
EPS Growth43.96%
CountryUS
Employees3,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.34
Shares Outstanding156,471,080
10 Day Avg. Volume1,202,270
30 Day Avg. Volume1,281,182
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.31
Price to Book (P/B)4.07
Price to Sales (P/S)2.79
P/FCF Ratio23.21
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.25Price Target Upside7.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.48B
Mueller Water Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mueller Water Products Inc. manufactures and markets products and services used in the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water in North America and internationally. Its products and services are used by municipalities, and the residen...
How the Company Makes Money
Mueller Water Products makes money primarily by selling water infrastructure hardware and water metering products to customers that build, repair, and operate water systems. Revenue is generated through (1) product sales in its Infrastructure segm...
Mueller Water Products Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial execution with multiple quarterly records (net sales, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS) and margin expansion, supported by pricing and manufacturing efficiencies. Management raised adjusted EBITDA guidance and highlighted a solid balance sheet and liquidity position, while also outlining strategic initiatives (Mueller operating system, focus on specialty valves and disciplined M&A). Offsetting these positives are deteriorating free cash flow driven by inventory builds and higher capex, ongoing tariff and inflationary pressures, a slight margin contraction in WMS, one-time reorganization costs, and the risk of a slowdown in new residential construction. On balance the quarter demonstrated meaningful progress and resilience, but with clear near-term cash and demand risks to monitor.Positive Updates
Record Net Sales and Revenue Growth
Net sales reached a quarterly record of $384.4 million, up 5.5% year over year, driven by higher pricing across most product lines and modest volume growth.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Decline and Working Capital Build
Six-month free cash flow decreased $30.8 million to $16.5 million (equal to ~15% of adjusted net income). Net cash provided by operating activities declined $20 million year over year, largely due to higher working capital and inventory build driven by tariffs, inflationary pressures and strategic inventory for long-lead specialty valve orders.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Sales and Revenue Growth
Net sales reached a quarterly record of $384.4 million, up 5.5% year over year, driven by higher pricing across most product lines and modest volume growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mueller reiterated fiscal 2026 consolidated net sales growth guidance of 2.8%–4.2% year‑over‑year and raised annual adjusted EBITDA guidance by $5 million at the midpoint to $360–$365 million (which implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of >24.5% at the midpoint, about a 170 basis‑point improvement year‑over‑year), maintained expectations for total SG&A, reaffirmed capital expenditures of $60–$65 million, and now expects free cash flow to exceed 70% of adjusted net income for the full year (down from a prior ~85% target), with the outlook supported by a strong balance sheet—$421 million cash, $452 million total debt, $585 million total liquidity (including $164 million availability under the ABL) and no debt maturities until June 2029.Mueller Water Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.46B | 1.43B | 1.31B | 1.28B | 1.25B | 1.11B |
| Gross Profit | 550.00M | 516.70M | 459.00M | 379.50M | 364.30M | 358.50M |
| EBITDA | 336.30M | 300.50M | 250.10M | 188.90M | 175.70M | 177.20M |
| Net Income | 207.40M | 191.70M | 115.90M | 85.50M | 76.60M | 70.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.88B | 1.84B | 1.64B | 1.50B | 1.50B | 1.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 421.00M | 431.50M | 309.90M | 160.30M | 146.50M | 227.50M |
| Total Debt | 452.40M | 451.60M | 477.50M | 472.10M | 473.70M | 475.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 814.00M | 857.20M | 825.80M | 793.50M | 828.80M | 823.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.07B | 981.70M | 810.10M | 711.50M | 669.30M | 694.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 141.20M | 172.00M | 191.40M | 61.40M | -2.40M | 94.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 199.30M | 219.30M | 238.80M | 109.00M | 52.30M | 156.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -57.90M | -47.10M | -47.20M | -42.10M | -54.90M | -81.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -61.90M | -58.30M | -46.00M | -48.80M | -72.00M | -58.80M |
Mueller Water Products Technical Analysis
Negative
29.07
Price Trends
27.65
Negative
27.44
Negative
26.26
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.70
Positive
36.58
Neutral
19.51
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MWA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.96, above the 50-day MA of 27.65, and above the 200-day MA of 26.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MWA.
Mueller Water Products Risk Analysis
Mueller Water Products disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mueller Water Products reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mueller Water Products Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $9.91B | 23.86 | 18.38% | 0.70% | 14.22% | 25.22% | |
71 Outperform | $3.99B | 18.19 | 20.74% | 1.09% | 6.57% | 43.96% | |
68 Neutral | $15.52B | 38.94 | 7.18% | ― | -0.51% | -44.42% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $8.32B | 28.68 | 15.93% | 1.17% | 0.83% | 26.77% | |
59 Neutral | $6.49B | -31.15 | -14.35% | ― | -4.89% | -179.82% | |
57 Neutral | $4.55B | -334.43 | 1.43% | ― | 12.73% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
MWA
Mueller Water Products
25.72
0.70
2.78%
FLS
Flowserve
65.93
15.80
31.50%
GNRC
Generac Holdings
253.05
125.79
98.84%
MIDD
The Middleby
144.41
-7.70
-5.06%
WTS
Watts Water Technologies
301.94
59.92
24.76%
MIR
Mirion Technologies
18.03
0.59
3.38%
Mueller Water Products Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mueller Water Products Highlights 2025 Results and Sustainability Progress
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
Mueller Water Products, Inc. operates in the water infrastructure industry, focusing on products and solutions that support municipal water systems, residential construction, and natural gas distribution. Its portfolio spans water flow solutions s...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mueller Water Products Promotes Scott Floyd to CCO
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Mueller Water Products’ board approved the promotion of longtime executive Scott Floyd to Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, effective February 23, 2026, as part of its ongoing management development...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mueller Water Products Shareholders Back Board and Auditor
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Mueller Water Products stockholders held their annual meeting on February 9, 2026, where they elected nine directors to serve terms ending in 2027, with all nominees, including Christian A. Garcia and Leland G. Weaver, receiving majority support d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.