Mueller Water Products (MWA)
NYSE:MWA
Top Page
Mueller Water Products
(NYSE:MWA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(12.12% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably margin and profitability improvement with better leverage) and a constructive earnings update with raised FY2026 guidance and solid cash/liquidity. Technicals are supportive but appear extended, while valuation (P/E ~23 and sub-1% yield) is the main moderating factor.
Positive Factors
Sustained margin expansion
Multi-year margin improvement reflects mix, pricing and scale gains that materially raise underlying profitability and ROE. Higher structural margins support durable cash generation, funding capex and strategic initiatives while providing a buffer against cyclical revenue swings over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Tariff and input-cost exposure
Significant exposure to brass tariffs and inflation creates a persistent cost headwind that can erode margins if pricing pass-through lags. Given the raw-material intensity of products, sustained or higher trade barriers would require ongoing pricing, sourcing or efficiency offsets to preserve long-term profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained margin expansion
Multi-year margin improvement reflects mix, pricing and scale gains that materially raise underlying profitability and ROE. Higher structural margins support durable cash generation, funding capex and strategic initiatives while providing a buffer against cyclical revenue swings over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Mueller Water Products (MWA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.32B
Dividend Yield1.09%
Average Volume (3M)1.04M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.5
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth8.75%
EPS Growth64.82%
CountryUS
Employees3,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.29
Shares Outstanding156,385,310
10 Day Avg. Volume1,311,858
30 Day Avg. Volume1,038,746
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.31
Price to Book (P/B)4.07
Price to Sales (P/S)2.79
P/FCF Ratio23.21
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.18
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.75Price Target Upside7.59% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.48B
Mueller Water Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mueller Water Products Inc. manufactures and markets products and services used in the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water in North America and internationally. Its products and services are used by municipalities, and the residen...
How the Company Makes Money
Mueller Water Products makes money primarily by selling water infrastructure hardware and water metering products to customers that build, repair, and operate water systems. Revenue is generated through (1) product sales in its Infrastructure segm...
Mueller Water Products Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive tone driven by strong first-quarter financial performance (record net sales, margins, adjusted EBITDA and EPS), robust cash generation, improved leverage and a raised full-year outlook. Operational actions — notably manufacturing efficiencies from foundry changes and recent price increases — supported margin expansion. Headwinds remain from higher tariffs (notably on brass), inflation, certain volume declines (service brass, natural gas, residential), and segment-specific pressures in WMS that compressed margins. On balance, the company’s operational improvements, liquidity, and raised guidance outweigh the challenges, though management flagged ongoing tariff and inflation effects that will require continued mitigation.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Results
Net sales increased 4.6% to $318.2M; gross profit rose 16.3% to $119.8M; gross margin expanded 380 bps to 37.6%. Company reported first-quarter records for net sales, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin.
Negative Updates
Tariff and Inflation Headwinds
Higher tariffs (primarily brass) and inflationary pressures weighed on costs. Company estimates approximately a 3% impact from tariffs in guidance and noted tariffs more than doubled typical low-single-digit inflation rates.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Results
Net sales increased 4.6% to $318.2M; gross profit rose 16.3% to $119.8M; gross margin expanded 380 bps to 37.6%. Company reported first-quarter records for net sales, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mueller raised fiscal 2026 guidance, increasing consolidated net‑sales midpoint by $20 million to imply growth of 2.8%–4.2% year‑over‑year and raising adjusted EBITDA by $10 million at the midpoint to a new range of $355M–$360M (implying >24% adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint, +100+ bps y/y). Management expects second‑half adjusted EBITDA margin to exceed first half as recently announced price actions phase in (main benefit in fiscal Q3), with price realization in the low‑ to mid‑single digits, slightly positive volumes at the midpoint, an incorporated ~3% tariff headwind net of efficiencies, capital expenditures reaffirmed at $60M–$65M, and free cash flow to exceed 85% of adjusted net income. Supporting Q1 performance and balance‑sheet strength: Q1 net sales $318.2M (+4.6%), gross margin 37.6% (+380 bps), adjusted operating margin 18.9%, adjusted EBITDA $72.1M (22.7% margin) and LTM adjusted EBITDA $335M (23.2% of sales), Q1 free cash flow $44M (96% of adjusted net income), capex YTD $17.2M, total debt $452M, cash $460M, total liquidity $623M (ABL availability $164M), no debt maturities until June 2029 and $450M of 4.0% senior notes.Mueller Water Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.44B | 1.43B | 1.31B | 1.28B | 1.25B | 1.11B |
| Gross Profit | 533.50M | 516.70M | 459.00M | 379.50M | 364.30M | 358.50M |
| EBITDA | 327.40M | 300.50M | 250.10M | 188.90M | 175.70M | 177.20M |
| Net Income | 199.60M | 191.70M | 115.90M | 85.50M | 76.60M | 70.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.85B | 1.84B | 1.64B | 1.50B | 1.50B | 1.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 459.60M | 431.50M | 309.90M | 160.30M | 146.50M | 227.50M |
| Total Debt | 450.90M | 451.60M | 477.50M | 472.10M | 473.70M | 475.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 828.60M | 857.20M | 825.80M | 793.50M | 828.80M | 823.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.02B | 981.70M | 810.10M | 711.50M | 669.30M | 694.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 173.80M | 172.00M | 191.40M | 61.40M | -2.40M | 94.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 226.40M | 219.30M | 238.80M | 109.00M | 52.30M | 156.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -52.30M | -47.10M | -47.20M | -42.10M | -54.90M | -81.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -64.80M | -58.30M | -46.00M | -48.80M | -72.00M | -58.80M |
Mueller Water Products Technical Analysis
Positive
27.65
Price Trends
28.32
Negative
26.35
Positive
25.77
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.24
Positive
51.17
Neutral
41.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MWA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.77, below the 50-day MA of 28.32, and above the 200-day MA of 25.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MWA.
Mueller Water Products Risk Analysis
Mueller Water Products disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mueller Water Products reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mueller Water Products Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $9.63B | 27.54 | 17.82% | 0.70% | 4.18% | 16.05% | |
78 Outperform | $4.32B | 21.55 | 21.00% | 1.09% | 8.75% | 64.82% | |
66 Neutral | $9.58B | 26.05 | 15.81% | 1.17% | 3.19% | 69.89% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $4.76B | 187.00 | 1.73% | ― | 7.81% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $11.68B | 50.02 | 6.19% | ― | 5.52% | 9.03% | |
53 Neutral | $6.23B | -28.04 | -8.50% | ― | 0.27% | -159.24% |
* Industrials Sector Average
MWA
Mueller Water Products
27.65
3.60
14.96%
FLS
Flowserve
75.24
32.24
74.99%
GNRC
Generac Holdings
194.09
78.45
67.84%
MIDD
The Middleby
132.09
-10.08
-7.09%
WTS
Watts Water Technologies
288.92
94.93
48.94%
MIR
Mirion Technologies
19.00
5.36
39.30%
Mueller Water Products Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mueller Water Products Highlights 2025 Results and Sustainability Progress
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
Mueller Water Products, Inc. operates in the water infrastructure industry, focusing on products and solutions that support municipal water systems, residential construction, and natural gas distribution. Its portfolio spans water flow solutions s...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mueller Water Products Promotes Scott Floyd to CCO
Positive
Feb 23, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Mueller Water Products’ board approved the promotion of longtime executive Scott Floyd to Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, effective February 23, 2026, as part of its ongoing management development...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mueller Water Products Shareholders Back Board and Auditor
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Mueller Water Products stockholders held their annual meeting on February 9, 2026, where they elected nine directors to serve terms ending in 2027, with all nominees, including Christian A. Garcia and Leland G. Weaver, receiving majority support d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.