Mueller Water Products (MWA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.64B
• Dividend Yield: 1.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 8.75%
• EPS Growth: 64.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,400
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 156,385,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,032,800
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,218,966
• PEG Ratio: 0.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.79
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.00
• 1Y Price Target: $29.75
• Price Target Upside: 0.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.43
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.48B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $34.00 ▲(14.52% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably margin and profitability improvement with better leverage) and a constructive earnings update with raised FY2026 guidance and solid cash/liquidity. Technicals are supportive but appear extended, while valuation (P/E ~23 and sub-1% yield) is the main moderating factor.

Positive Factors

Margin expansion & profitability

Mueller shows durable multi-year margin expansion and higher profitability driven by pricing and operational leverage. Sustained gross and net margin improvement supports stronger operating cash flow, higher ROE and the ability to fund investments and returns over the medium term.

Strong cash generation & liquidity

High free cash flow conversion and a large cash/liquidity buffer with no near-term maturities provide durable financial flexibility. This supports sustained capex for foundry investments, funds working capital variability, and cushions against cyclical downturns or tariff-driven cost shocks.

Market position & structural demand

As a leading supplier to utilities and municipalities, Mueller benefits from steady replacement and upgrade cycles tied to aging infrastructure. Its wide product breadth and services (metering, leak detection) create recurring maintenance and project revenue that supports medium-term sales stability.

Negative Factors

Tariff and inflation cost pressure

Structural exposure to brass tariffs and elevated input inflation raises sustained cost risk. If price realization lags or tariffs persist, margin compression could recur; ongoing mitigation via efficiencies and pricing must outpace these headwinds to protect long-term profitability.

WMS segment margin weakness

Material profitability deterioration in the WMS segment reflects persistent manufacturing inefficiencies, FX and cost pressures. If segment-level issues persist, they could cap consolidated margin expansion and require incremental capex or restructuring, limiting durable margin sustainability.

Uneven cash conversion & sizable debt

Variability in operating cash conversion and occasional negative free cash flow indicate working-capital and cyclical sensitivity. Although leverage has improved, roughly $450M of debt still exists; combined variability and debt can constrain strategic flexibility during weaker demand periods.

Mueller Water Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mueller Water Products Inc. manufactures and markets products and services used in the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water in North America and internationally. Its products and services are used by municipalities, and the residential and non-residential construction industries. It operates through two segments, Infrastructure and Technologies. The company's Infrastructure segment manufactures and sells valves for water and gas systems, including iron gate, butterfly, tapping, check, knife, plug, automatic control, and ball valves; and dry-barrel and wet-barrel fire hydrants and service brass products, as well as a line of pipe repair products, such as clamps and couplings used to repair leaks. This segment offers its products under Canada Valve, Centurion, Ez-Max, Hydro Gate, Hydro-Guard, HYMAX, HYMAX VERSA, Jones, Krausz, Milliken, Mueller, Pratt, Pratt Industrial, Repamax, Repaflex, and Singer brands. Its Technologies segment offers residential and commercial water metering, water leak detection and pipe condition assessment products, systems, and services. It offers products under Echologics, Echoshore, ePulse, Hersey, LeakFinderRT, LeakFinderST, LeakListener, LeakTuner, Mi.Echo, Mi.Data, Mi.Hydrant, Mi.Net, Mueller Systems, and Sentryx brands. The company was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Mueller Water Products generates revenue through the sale of its wide range of water and wastewater products, including valves, hydrants, and metering technologies. The company primarily sells its products to municipalities and water utilities, which are often funded through government contracts and projects. Key revenue streams include direct sales through its distribution network, as well as partnerships with various municipal and industrial clients. Additionally, the company benefits from ongoing maintenance contracts and the provision of smart water management solutions, which enhance its earnings stability. Strategic partnerships with other infrastructure firms and active participation in government projects also contribute to its overall revenue growth.

Mueller Water Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year profitability and margin expansion with improving leverage and higher ROE. Main risks are uneven cash conversion (recent operating cash flow below net income) and historical free-cash-flow variability.

Income Statement

MWA shows a clear multi-year improvement in profitability and scale. Revenue rose from $1.11B (FY2021) to $1.43B (FY2025 annual), and margins expanded materially (gross margin ~29.7% in FY2023 to ~36.1% in FY2025 annual; net margin ~6.7% to ~13.4% over the same span). TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) profitability remains strong (EBIT margin ~18.9%, net margin ~13.4%). The main watch-out is that the latest growth rate shown for TTM appears unusually high versus prior years, suggesting growth may be more volatile or impacted by how the period is captured.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and has improved over time: debt-to-equity decreased from ~0.71 (FY2022) to ~0.46 (FY2025 annual and TTM). Equity has grown steadily (about $669M in FY2022 to about $982M in FY2025 annual), supporting a stronger capital base. Returns also strengthened (return on equity ~21.2% in TTM versus ~10–14% in FY2021–FY2024), which is a positive signal. The key downside is that total debt remains sizable at roughly $451M, so the balance sheet is sound but not “debt-light.”

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow of ~$226M and free cash flow of ~$174M. Free cash flow generally tracks earnings reasonably well (TTM free cash flow is ~78% of net income). However, cash conversion is not consistently strong across years: operating cash flow has been below net income in the most recent periods (coverage ~0.76 in FY2025 annual and TTM), and the company experienced a weak year in FY2022 with negative free cash flow. Free cash flow growth is also uneven (strong in FY2024, weaker in FY2025 annual), implying some variability in working capital and/or investment spend.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.44B	1.43B	1.31B	1.28B	1.25B	1.11B
Gross Profit	533.50M	516.70M	459.00M	379.50M	364.30M	358.50M
EBITDA	327.40M	300.50M	250.10M	188.90M	175.70M	177.20M
Net Income	199.60M	191.70M	115.90M	85.50M	76.60M	70.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.85B	1.84B	1.64B	1.50B	1.50B	1.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	459.60M	431.50M	309.90M	160.30M	146.50M	227.50M
Total Debt	450.90M	451.60M	477.50M	472.10M	473.70M	475.50M
Total Liabilities	828.60M	857.20M	825.80M	793.50M	828.80M	823.10M
Stockholders Equity	1.02B	981.70M	810.10M	711.50M	669.30M	694.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	173.80M	172.00M	191.40M	61.40M	-2.40M	94.00M
Operating Cash Flow	226.40M	219.30M	238.80M	109.00M	52.30M	156.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-52.30M	-47.10M	-47.20M	-42.10M	-54.90M	-81.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-64.80M	-58.30M	-46.00M	-48.80M	-72.00M	-58.80M

Mueller Water Products Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 29.69
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MWA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.36, above the 50-day MA of 26.97, and above the 200-day MA of 25.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MWA.

Mueller Water Products Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WTS	80 Outperform	$10.86B	32.31	18.25%	0.70%	4.18%	16.05%
MWA	78 Outperform	$4.64B	23.60	21.55%	1.09%	8.75%	64.82%
FLS	73 Outperform	$11.14B	33.49	16.49%	1.17%	3.19%	69.89%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MIR	63 Neutral	$5.58B	203.28	1.71%	―	7.81%	―
GNRC	60 Neutral	$13.52B	85.73	6.22%	―	5.52%	9.03%
MIDD	60 Neutral	$8.31B	-28.79	-6.20%	―	0.27%	-159.24%

Mueller Water Products Corporate Events

Mueller Water Products Highlights 2025 Results and Sustainability Progress

Mueller Water Products, Inc. operates in the water infrastructure industry, focusing on products and solutions that support municipal water systems, residential construction, and natural gas distribution. Its portfolio spans water flow solutions such as iron gate valves, specialty valves and service brass, and water management solutions including fire hydrants, repair and installation products, metering, leak detection, pressure control and related software, with most sales generated in the United States and a significant share tied to replacing aging municipal infrastructure.

The company reported 2025 net sales of about $1.43 billion, an adjusted EBITDA of $326.2 million, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.8%, and adjusted EPS of $1.31, supported by a strong five-year growth record and capital spending aimed at operational improvements. Management highlighted sustainability achievements such as sizable reductions in hazardous waste, extensive use of recycled metal, modest cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and billions of gallons of client water-loss savings identified via EchoShore leak detection, positioning Mueller as a beneficiary of long-term demand driven by aging water infrastructure and supporting its case for continued margin expansion and investment capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (MWA) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mueller Water Products stock, see the MWA Stock Forecast page.

Mueller Water Products Promotes Scott Floyd to CCO

On February 17, 2026, Mueller Water Products’ board approved the promotion of longtime executive Scott Floyd to Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, effective February 23, 2026, as part of its ongoing management development and succession plans. Floyd, who has held multiple senior roles since 2019 and been with the company since 1998, received increases to his base salary, bonus target, and long-term equity incentives aligned with his expanded responsibilities, with the company emphasizing both orderly succession and the absence of related-party or conflict-of-interest issues in the appointment.

The compensation package sets Floyd’s base salary at $550,000 with a 70% bonus target and an additional $125,000 equity award for fiscal 2026, positioning him to lead the company’s commercial strategy while maintaining alignment with long-term performance incentives. The move underscores Mueller Water Products’ intent to strengthen its commercial leadership bench and sustain long-term growth by elevating an experienced internal candidate with extensive operational and market-facing experience in its water infrastructure businesses.

The most recent analyst rating on (MWA) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mueller Water Products stock, see the MWA Stock Forecast page.

Mueller Water Products Shareholders Back Board and Auditor

Mueller Water Products stockholders held their annual meeting on February 9, 2026, where they elected nine directors to serve terms ending in 2027, with all nominees, including Christian A. Garcia and Leland G. Weaver, receiving majority support despite some notable opposition for certain candidates. Shareholders also approved on an advisory basis the compensation of the company’s named executive officers and strongly ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for fiscal 2026, signaling continued backing for the firm’s executive pay practices and audit oversight.

The advisory vote on executive compensation drew solid, though not unanimous, support, indicating general investor alignment with the board on pay while still reflecting a minority of dissenting voices. The overwhelming ratification of Ernst & Young LLP reinforces stability in Mueller Water Products’ financial reporting framework, which may reassure investors and other stakeholders regarding the company’s governance and oversight as it moves through fiscal 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (MWA) stock is a Buy with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mueller Water Products stock, see the MWA Stock Forecast page.