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Mueller Water Products
(NYSE:MWA)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(23.85% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
MWA scores well primarily on strong financial performance (material margin expansion, improving leverage, and solid cash conversion) and a positive earnings-call outlook with raised EBITDA guidance and strong liquidity. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages, though momentum looks somewhat stretched. Valuation is acceptable but not especially compelling given the moderate P/E and low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Sustained margin expansion & profitability
Mueller has delivered multi‑year margin expansion and stronger returns driven by pricing and manufacturing efficiency. Durable higher gross and net margins indicate structural cost and pricing advantages that support cash generation, reinvestment and resilience through industry cycles.
Negative Factors
Lower free cash flow conversion and volatility
Management lowered the targeted cash conversion rate, reflecting persistent cash pressures. Reduced FCF conversion limits flexibility for debt paydown, dividends or bolt‑on M&A and increases reliance on operational improvement to sustain deleveraging and capital returns over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained margin expansion & profitability
Mueller has delivered multi‑year margin expansion and stronger returns driven by pricing and manufacturing efficiency. Durable higher gross and net margins indicate structural cost and pricing advantages that support cash generation, reinvestment and resilience through industry cycles.
Read all positive factors
Mueller Water Products (MWA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.98B
Dividend Yield1.1%
Average Volume (3M)1.21M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.9
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth5.88%
EPS Growth49.15%
CountryUS
Employees3,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Machinery
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.43
Shares Outstanding156,125,670
10 Day Avg. Volume1,094,182
30 Day Avg. Volume1,210,415
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.31
Price to Book (P/B)4.07
Price to Sales (P/S)2.79
P/FCF Ratio23.21
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.20Price Target Upside20.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.48B
Mueller Water Products Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mueller Water Products Inc. (MWA) is a leading provider of products and services crucial for the conveyance, distribution, and precise measurement of water throughout North America and internationally. The company's diverse portfolio serves munici...
How the Company Makes Money
Mueller Water Products makes money primarily by selling water infrastructure hardware and water measurement/technology solutions to municipal customers, utilities, and distribution-channel partners. Its largest revenue stream is the Infrastructure...
Mueller Water Products Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple operational and financial records (net sales, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, gross profit) and stronger cash generation and liquidity, alongside raised annual adjusted EBITDA guidance, demonstrating significant positive momentum from pricing, tariff refunds and disciplined cost management. Key challenges include slowing residential construction affecting short-cycle volumes (iron gate valves, service brass, hydrants), one-time exit and reorganization costs, continued tariff and inflation pressures, and elevated working capital. On balance, the positive execution, margin expansion, cash strength and guidance raise outweigh the near-term volume headwinds and one-time charges.Positive Updates
Record Net Sales
Consolidated net sales reached a record $395.9 million, up 4.1% year-over-year, driven by higher pricing, resilient municipal demand and growth in project-related specialty valves.
Negative Updates
Residential Construction Weakness
Slower new residential construction activity is pressuring volumes and was cited as the primary reason for narrowing net sales guidance and expected sequential softness into Q4.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Sales
Consolidated net sales reached a record $395.9 million, up 4.1% year-over-year, driven by higher pricing, resilient municipal demand and growth in project-related specialty valves.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2026 the company narrowed consolidated net‑sales growth guidance to 2.8%–3.5% year‑over‑year, raised annual adjusted EBITDA to $367–372 million (midpoint implying a record ~25.1% adjusted EBITDA margin), lowered expected SG&A to $241–245 million, cut its effective tax‑rate guidance to 21%–23%, reaffirmed capital expenditures of $60–65 million, and expects free‑cash‑flow conversion to exceed 70% of adjusted net income for the full year; additionally, management said Q4 will likely see WFS adjusted EBITDA above prior year but down sequentially (seasonality and lower short‑cycle volumes) while WMS margins should be lower year‑over‑year and sequentially as hydrant backlog normalizes, and noted strong liquidity and balance‑sheet timing (no debt maturities until June 2029, total liquidity ~$659 million).Mueller Water Products Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.48B | 1.43B | 1.31B | 1.28B | 1.25B | 1.11B |
| Gross Profit | 560.10M | 516.70M | 459.00M | 379.50M | 364.30M | 358.50M |
| EBITDA | 345.30M | 300.50M | 250.10M | 188.90M | 175.70M | 177.20M |
| Net Income | 222.20M | 191.70M | 115.90M | 85.50M | 76.60M | 70.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.95B | 1.84B | 1.64B | 1.50B | 1.50B | 1.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 495.30M | 431.50M | 309.90M | 160.30M | 146.50M | 227.50M |
| Total Debt | 452.90M | 451.60M | 477.50M | 472.10M | 473.70M | 475.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 832.90M | 857.20M | 825.80M | 793.50M | 828.80M | 823.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.12B | 981.70M | 810.10M | 711.50M | 669.30M | 694.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 179.60M | 172.00M | 191.40M | 61.40M | -2.40M | 94.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 237.70M | 219.30M | 238.80M | 109.00M | 52.30M | 156.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -56.80M | -47.10M | -47.20M | -42.10M | -54.90M | -81.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -62.60M | -58.30M | -46.00M | -48.80M | -72.00M | -58.80M |
Mueller Water Products Technical Analysis
Negative
25.03
Price Trends
25.53
Negative
26.32
Negative
26.18
Negative
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
48.05
Neutral
22.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MWA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.60, below the 50-day MA of 25.53, and below the 200-day MA of 26.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MWA.
Mueller Water Products Risk Analysis
Mueller Water Products disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mueller Water Products reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mueller Water Products Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $12.79B | 33.54 | 18.56% | 0.63% | 17.13% | 23.21% | |
77 Outperform | $3.98B | 17.86 | 21.21% | 1.10% | 5.88% | 49.15% | |
71 Outperform | $10.32B | 28.08 | 16.63% | 1.19% | -0.26% | 29.38% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $3.88B | 160.51 | 1.33% | ― | 15.68% | 133.41% | |
58 Neutral | $12.78B | 49.73 | 9.54% | ― | 0.61% | -27.77% | |
55 Neutral | $5.29B | -12.72 | -14.35% | ― | -7.22% | -191.27% |
* Industrials Sector Average
MWA
Mueller Water Products
25.54
-0.42
-1.63%
FLS
Flowserve
80.87
28.92
55.67%
GNRC
Generac Holdings
219.30
20.50
10.31%
MIDD
The Middleby
117.91
11.24
10.54%
WTS
Watts Water Technologies
384.42
115.45
42.92%
MIR
Mirion Technologies
15.89
-4.66
-22.68%
Mueller Water Products Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mueller Water Plans Structured Transition of HR Leadership
Neutral
Jun 19, 2026
Mueller Water Products, Inc. announced that Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer Todd P. Helms will depart the company effective September 1, 2026, marking a planned leadership change in its human resources function. To support ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.