Mueller Water Products (MWA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.30B
• Dividend Yield: 1.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 947.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.13
• Revenue Growth: 8.75%
• EPS Growth: 64.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,400
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 156,360,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,188,076
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 947,894
• PEG Ratio: 0.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.79
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.99
• 1Y Price Target: $27.60
• Price Target Upside: -1.18% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $32.00 ▲(14.57% Upside)

Score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notable margin expansion and improving leverage) and a constructive earnings update with raised FY2026 guidance and solid cash generation. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, though momentum is getting stretched. Valuation is the main constraint given a ~22.6 P/E and ~1% yield.

Positive Factors

Margin Expansion & Profitability

Sustained multi-year margin expansion and stronger net margins indicate durable pricing power and operational leverage. Higher profitability improves return on equity and cash flow generation, supporting reinvestment and resilience through industry cycles rather than relying on one-off gains.

Strong Cash Generation & Liquidity

Robust cash flow and sizable liquidity give the company flexibility to fund capex, restructure operations, pay down debt, or pursue acquisitions. The lack of near-term maturities reduces refinancing risk and provides a multi-year runway to execute strategic improvements and absorb cyclical downturns.

Operational Efficiency Gains

Realized manufacturing efficiencies and targeted capex create a lower-cost structural footprint and higher incremental margins. These changes can permanently reduce unit costs, improve capacity for specialty products, and sustain margin gains as pricing actions and operational changes fully phase in.

Negative Factors

Tariff and Inflation Headwinds

Sustained tariffs and elevated input inflation are structural cost risks for a brass- and metals-intensive business. They can erode margins if price realization lags or volumes weaken, force continual price increases that pressure demand, and complicate long-term margin modeling and contract competitiveness.

WMS Segment Profitability Pressure

A material margin pullback in the WMS segment signals operational or mix problems particular to that business. Persistent inefficiencies, higher SG&A, unfavorable FX or tariff exposure in one segment can cap consolidated margin progress and require continued investments or restructuring to restore profitability.

Variable Cash Conversion

Inconsistent cash conversion raises forecast risk and constrains long-term financial planning. Variable working capital and episodic negative FCF years reduce the predictability of funds available for dividends, buybacks, or acquisitions, increasing sensitivity to downturns despite recent strong quarters.

Mueller Water Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mueller Water Products Inc. manufactures and markets products and services used in the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water in North America and internationally. Its products and services are used by municipalities, and the residential and non-residential construction industries. It operates through two segments, Infrastructure and Technologies. The company's Infrastructure segment manufactures and sells valves for water and gas systems, including iron gate, butterfly, tapping, check, knife, plug, automatic control, and ball valves; and dry-barrel and wet-barrel fire hydrants and service brass products, as well as a line of pipe repair products, such as clamps and couplings used to repair leaks. This segment offers its products under Canada Valve, Centurion, Ez-Max, Hydro Gate, Hydro-Guard, HYMAX, HYMAX VERSA, Jones, Krausz, Milliken, Mueller, Pratt, Pratt Industrial, Repamax, Repaflex, and Singer brands. Its Technologies segment offers residential and commercial water metering, water leak detection and pipe condition assessment products, systems, and services. It offers products under Echologics, Echoshore, ePulse, Hersey, LeakFinderRT, LeakFinderST, LeakListener, LeakTuner, Mi.Echo, Mi.Data, Mi.Hydrant, Mi.Net, Mueller Systems, and Sentryx brands. The company was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Mueller Water Products generates revenue through the sale of its wide range of water and wastewater products, including valves, hydrants, and metering technologies. The company primarily sells its products to municipalities and water utilities, which are often funded through government contracts and projects. Key revenue streams include direct sales through its distribution network, as well as partnerships with various municipal and industrial clients. Additionally, the company benefits from ongoing maintenance contracts and the provision of smart water management solutions, which enhance its earnings stability. Strategic partnerships with other infrastructure firms and active participation in government projects also contribute to its overall revenue growth.

Mueller Water Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year improvement in revenue and profitability, with material margin expansion and higher ROE alongside declining leverage. Main offset is cash-flow variability, including uneven free-cash-flow history and recent operating cash flow running below net income.

Income Statement

MWA shows a clear multi-year improvement in profitability and scale. Revenue rose from $1.11B (FY2021) to $1.43B (FY2025 annual), and margins expanded materially (gross margin ~29.7% in FY2023 to ~36.1% in FY2025 annual; net margin ~6.7% to ~13.4% over the same span). TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) profitability remains strong (EBIT margin ~18.9%, net margin ~13.4%). The main watch-out is that the latest growth rate shown for TTM appears unusually high versus prior years, suggesting growth may be more volatile or impacted by how the period is captured.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and has improved over time: debt-to-equity decreased from ~0.71 (FY2022) to ~0.46 (FY2025 annual and TTM). Equity has grown steadily (about $669M in FY2022 to about $982M in FY2025 annual), supporting a stronger capital base. Returns also strengthened (return on equity ~21.2% in TTM versus ~10–14% in FY2021–FY2024), which is a positive signal. The key downside is that total debt remains sizable at roughly $451M, so the balance sheet is sound but not “debt-light.”

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow of ~$226M and free cash flow of ~$174M. Free cash flow generally tracks earnings reasonably well (TTM free cash flow is ~78% of net income). However, cash conversion is not consistently strong across years: operating cash flow has been below net income in the most recent periods (coverage ~0.76 in FY2025 annual and TTM), and the company experienced a weak year in FY2022 with negative free cash flow. Free cash flow growth is also uneven (strong in FY2024, weaker in FY2025 annual), implying some variability in working capital and/or investment spend.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.43B	1.31B	1.28B	1.25B	1.11B
Gross Profit	516.70M	459.00M	379.50M	364.30M	358.50M
EBITDA	300.50M	250.10M	188.90M	175.70M	177.20M
Net Income	191.70M	115.90M	85.50M	76.60M	70.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.84B	1.64B	1.50B	1.50B	1.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	431.50M	309.90M	160.30M	146.50M	227.50M
Total Debt	451.60M	477.50M	472.10M	473.70M	475.50M
Total Liabilities	857.20M	825.80M	793.50M	828.80M	823.10M
Stockholders Equity	981.70M	810.10M	711.50M	669.30M	694.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	172.00M	191.40M	61.40M	-2.40M	94.00M
Operating Cash Flow	219.30M	238.80M	109.00M	52.30M	156.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-47.10M	-47.20M	-42.10M	-54.90M	-81.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-58.30M	-46.00M	-48.80M	-72.00M	-58.80M

Mueller Water Products Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 27.93
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MWA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.55, above the 50-day MA of 25.31, and above the 200-day MA of 25.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.02 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MWA.

Mueller Water Products Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MWA	79 Outperform	$4.30B	21.78	21.40%	1.09%	8.75%	64.82%
FLS	79 Outperform	$10.14B	23.20	20.97%	1.17%	3.19%	69.89%
WTS	77 Outperform	$10.24B	31.67	17.81%	0.70%	4.18%	16.05%
MIR	66 Neutral	$6.11B	197.03	1.58%	―	7.81%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MIDD	60 Neutral	$7.97B	-35.60	-6.20%	―	0.27%	-159.24%
GNRC	59 Neutral	$10.40B	32.81	12.38%	―	5.52%	9.03%

Mueller Water Products Corporate Events

Mueller Water Products Highlights FY2025 Financial Performance

Mueller Water Products has released an updated investor presentation highlighting its financial performance and strategic initiatives. The company reported $1,430 million in net sales for FY2025 and emphasized its commitment to sustainability, having identified significant water loss savings and reduced waste. The presentation underscores Mueller’s focus on operational excellence, customer experience, and innovation to drive growth and expand margins.

The most recent analyst rating on (MWA) stock is a Hold with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mueller Water Products stock, see the MWA Stock Forecast page.

Mueller Water Products Announces CEO Retirement and Successor

On November 6, 2025, Mueller Water Products announced the retirement of CEO Marietta E. Zakas, effective February 9, 2026, with Paul McAndrew appointed as her successor. McAndrew, who has been with the company since 2022, will also join the Board of Directors. Zakas will serve as a Senior Advisor until December 31, 2026, ensuring a smooth transition. This leadership change is part of a strategic succession plan aimed at maintaining the company’s positive momentum and operational success. The transition is expected to have significant implications for Mueller’s future growth and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (MWA) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mueller Water Products stock, see the MWA Stock Forecast page.