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The Middleby Corp (MIDD)
NASDAQ:MIDD
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The Middleby (MIDD) AI Stock Analysis

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MIDD

The Middleby

(NASDAQ:MIDD)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$157.00
▲(17.19% Upside)
The Middleby Corporation's stock score is driven by strong financial performance and strategic innovations. However, stagnant revenue growth, tariff impacts, and technical resistance are key concerns.
Positive Factors
Innovation and Product Development
Middleby's focus on innovation strengthens its competitive edge, allowing it to adapt to changing market demands and maintain leadership in the industry.
Growth in New Market Segments
Expanding into new market segments like ice and beverage products offers Middleby significant growth potential, diversifying its revenue streams and reducing dependency on existing markets.
Strong Cash Flow Management
Effective cash flow management ensures Middleby can invest in growth opportunities and manage debt, supporting long-term financial stability and operational flexibility.
Negative Factors
Impact of Tariffs
Tariff-related costs strain profitability and competitiveness, particularly in the residential segment, potentially hindering revenue growth and market expansion.
Challenges with Large QSR Customers
Pressure from large QSR customers can lead to reduced order volumes and pricing pressures, impacting Middleby's revenue and profitability in the long term.
Stagnant Revenue Growth
Stagnant revenue growth limits Middleby's ability to scale operations and invest in new opportunities, potentially affecting its competitive position and market share.

The Middleby (MIDD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

The Middleby Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Middleby Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, distributes, and services a range of foodservice, food processing, and residential kitchen equipment in the United States, Canada, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. Its Commercial Foodservice Equipment Group segment offers conveyor, combi, convection, baking, proofing, deck, speed cooking, and hydrovection ovens; ranges, fryers, rethermalizers; steam cooking, food warming, catering, induction cooking, and countertop cooking equipment; heated cabinets, charbroilers, ventless cooking systems, kitchen ventilation, toasters, griddles, charcoal grills, professional mixers, stainless steel fabrication, custom millwork, professional refrigerators, blast chillers, cold rooms, ice machines, and freezers; and soft serve ice cream, coffee and beverage dispensing, home and professional craft brewing equipment, fry dispensers, bottle filling and canning equipment, and IoT solutions. The company's Food Processing Equipment Group segment provides batch, baking, proofing, conveyor belt, and continuous processing ovens; frying and automated thermal processing systems; tumblers, massagers, grinders, slicers, reduction and emulsion systems, mixers, formers, and blenders; battering, breading, and seeding equipment; water cutting systems, food presses, food suspension equipment, filling and depositing solutions, and forming equipment; and food safety, food handling, freezing, and defrosting and packaging equipment for customers producing hot dog, dinner sausage, poultry, and lunchmeat, as well as muffin, cookie, and bread products. Its Residential Kitchen Equipment Group segment offers kitchen equipment comprising cookers, stoves, dishwashers, microwaves, cooktops, wine coolers, ice machines, and ventilation and outdoor equipment. The company was formerly known as Middleby Marshall Oven Company and changed its name to The Middleby Corporation in 1985. The company was founded in 1888 and is based in Elgin, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyMiddleby generates revenue primarily through the sale of its commercial cooking and food processing equipment. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales of equipment to restaurants, food manufacturers, and other commercial food service operations. Additionally, Middleby earns recurring revenue through the sale of parts, service contracts, and aftermarket support for its products. Strategic partnerships with leading foodservice brands and distributors further enhance its market presence and drive sales. The company also benefits from a strong focus on innovation, enabling it to introduce new products that meet changing consumer demands and maintain competitive advantage.

The Middleby Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights notable achievements in sequential revenue improvements, strong EBITDA margins, and successful share repurchases, underpinned by strategic investments in innovation and new market segments. However, significant challenges remain, particularly due to tariff impacts, pressures from large QSR customers, and deferred orders affecting growth. The sentiment reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook offset by current economic and market challenges.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Sequential Revenue Improvements
The company experienced sequential revenue improvements across all three segments, with a significant step-up in food processing revenues compared to the first quarter.
Strong EBITDA Margins
Commercial Foodservice delivered over $580 million in revenue with a strong 27% EBITDA margin. Residential and Food Processing segments also reported EBITDA margins exceeding 10% and 21% respectively.
Successful Share Repurchases
During Q2, the company repurchased over 2.2 million shares for nearly $323 million, with further purchases in July amounting to $97 million for over 650,000 shares.
Innovation and Product Development
Middleby introduced more new products and innovations in the past 3 years than at any other time in its history, receiving 24 individual innovation awards in 18 months.
Growth in New Market Segments
The company's entry into the ice and beverage product categories is highlighted as a transformational growth opportunity with significant potential.
Negative Updates
Impact of Tariffs
Tariffs have had a significant negative impact, particularly on the residential outdoor business, with an estimated annualized cost impact of approximately $150 million.
Challenges with Large QSR Customers
The company faces pressure from large QSR customers due to decreased traffic, cost pressures, and revised down new store openings, affecting revenue growth.
Deferred and Reduced Orders
Order conversion has been slow, driven by tariff uncertainties and food costs, impacting the timing of orders, especially for larger projects.
Residential Outdoor Segment Challenges
The Residential Outdoor segment is significantly impacted by tariff-related pressures, causing channel partners to reduce inventories.
Company Guidance
During the Middleby Corporation's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance metrics for the upcoming periods. For Q3, Middleby anticipates total revenue between $950 million and $975 million, with Commercial Foodservice expected to contribute $580 million to $590 million, Residential Kitchen $170 million to $180 million, and Food Processing $195 million to $205 million. Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to be in the range of $185 million to $195 million, while adjusted EPS is projected to be between $2.04 and $2.19. The full year 2025 guidance projects total revenue between $3.81 billion and $3.87 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $770 million to $800 million, and adjusted EPS of $8.65 to $9.05. The company also highlighted a $150 million annualized impact from tariffs, with a net negative impact to Q3 EBITDA estimated between $10 million and $15 million, expected to reduce to $5 million to $10 million in Q4 as pricing actions take hold. Additionally, Middleby reported Q2 free cash flow of $101 million and a leverage ratio of 2.3x, while mentioning plans to pay off convertible notes with a combination of cash and revolving bank facility, which will increase interest expenses in the latter half of the year.

The Middleby Financial Statement Overview

Summary
The Middleby demonstrates strong operational efficiency and stable profitability with robust cash flow management. However, stagnant revenue growth and significant liabilities pose potential risks.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The Middleby has shown consistent profitability with strong gross profit margins and stable net profit margins in recent years. Despite a slight decrease in revenue, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust, indicating operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate has been stagnant, which could be a concern for future expansion.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting balanced leverage. A stable return on equity demonstrates effective use of shareholders’ funds. However, the equity ratio indicates that liabilities still form a significant portion of the company’s financing, which could be risky during economic downturns.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The Middleby exhibits strong cash flow management with a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio and consistent free cash flow generation. The free cash flow growth rate shows positive trends, which supports future investment and debt repayment. Nevertheless, the slight fluctuation in free cash flow growth indicates potential volatility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.84B3.88B4.04B4.03B3.25B2.51B
Gross Profit1.46B1.47B1.53B1.41B1.19B882.05M
EBITDA775.40M796.72M797.35M780.39M776.67M439.25M
Net Income424.78M428.43M400.88M436.57M488.49M207.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.34B7.28B6.91B6.87B6.38B5.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments511.50M689.53M247.50M162.00M180.36M268.10M
Total Debt2.38B2.52B2.54B2.83B2.51B1.83B
Total Liabilities3.71B3.64B3.66B4.08B3.89B3.23B
Stockholders Equity3.62B3.64B3.25B2.80B2.49B1.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow580.34M637.51M541.81M263.03M371.85M482.88M
Operating Cash Flow659.54M686.82M628.79M332.55M423.40M524.78M
Investing Cash Flow-187.47M-158.53M-155.74M-348.32M-1.01B-106.76M
Financing Cash Flow-434.55M-73.77M-390.94M7.63M502.79M-252.47M

The Middleby Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price133.97
Price Trends
50DMA
136.24
Negative
100DMA
141.37
Negative
200DMA
144.69
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.04
Positive
RSI
46.85
Neutral
STOCH
43.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MIDD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 133.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 135.94, below the 50-day MA of 136.24, and below the 200-day MA of 144.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MIDD.

The Middleby Risk Analysis

The Middleby disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. The Middleby reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

The Middleby Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$9.19B41.5513.74%8.90%29.18%
74
Outperform
$6.49B32.416.20%-2.67%-17.55%
72
Outperform
$6.90B24.1013.12%1.59%3.15%14.18%
71
Outperform
$6.77B16.9012.06%-1.70%10.24%
71
Outperform
$4.82B56.575.10%0.54%4.99%169.24%
64
Neutral
$5.86B567.570.66%7.88%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MIDD
The Middleby
133.97
-0.45
-0.33%
NPO
Enpro
228.92
70.97
44.93%
FLS
Flowserve
52.74
0.78
1.50%
SPXC
SPX
185.92
26.16
16.37%
GTES
Gates Industrial
25.21
7.89
45.55%
MIR
Mirion Technologies
23.10
12.00
108.11%

The Middleby Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
The Middleby Extends Credit Agreement to 2028
Neutral
Aug 21, 2025

On August 19, 2025, The Middleby Corporation and its subsidiary, Middleby Marshall Inc., along with other subsidiaries, entered into a Third Amendment to their existing Credit Agreement with Bank of America and other lenders. This amendment extends the maturity date of the Credit Agreement to April 28, 2028, and facilitates the company’s plan to separate its food processing business into a standalone public company, impacting its operational strategy and market positioning.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 10, 2025