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Mitsui Fudosan (MTSFY)
OTHER OTC:MTSFY
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Mitsui Fudosan
(OTC:MTSFY)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(30.05% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is primarily supported by solid financial performance led by strong revenue growth and stable margins, but is held back by higher leverage and only moderate operating cash flow efficiency. Technically, the uptrend is positive, yet overbought momentum signals increase short-term risk. Valuation appears reasonable on earnings but offers limited support from dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Sustained 11.19% revenue growth indicates durable demand for Mitsui Fudosan’s developments and leasing portfolio. Over the medium term this supports expanding development pipelines, recurring leasing income and scale benefits that underpin long-term cash flows and project ROI.
Business Model Diversification
A diversified model across residential, commercial, retail, hotels and REITs spreads cyclical risk and stabilizes cash inflows. Structural focus on urban redevelopment and government/corporate partnerships supports repeatable project pipelines and more resilient earnings over cycles.
Cash Generation / FCF Conversion
Material free cash flow growth and a FCF-to-net-income ratio of 0.55 reflect solid cash conversion from profits. This durable cash generation supports funding for development capex, distributions and debt servicing, reducing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
A debt-to-equity of 1.40 denotes meaningful leverage for a capital-intensive developer, raising refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. Over several months this constrains strategic flexibility, increases fixed-charge burdens and amplifies downside risk in weaker real estate cycles.
Cash Flow Efficiency
Operating cash flow to net income at 0.32 shows modest conversion of accounting profits into cash. For a developer, this suggests timing lags in collections or project cashflows; sustained low conversion can strain liquidity for new projects and increase dependence on debt or asset disposals.
Operating Margin Pressure
A slight decline in EBIT margin signals pressure on operating efficiency, potentially from higher costs or less favorable project mix. If persistent, margin compression could erode the benefits of revenue growth and weaken sustainable profitability across development cycles.
Mitsui Fudosan (MTSFY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$35.10B
Dividend Yield1.86%
Average Volume (3M)1.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth19.34%
EPS Growth74.50%
CountryUS
Employees25,593
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding918,638,200
10 Day Avg. Volume1,802
30 Day Avg. Volume1,380
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.33
Price to Book (P/B)1.19
Price to Sales (P/S)1.43
P/FCF Ratio11.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap280.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda17.30
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Mitsui Fudosan Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd. operates as a real estate company in Japan. It operates through four segments: Leasing, Property Sales, Management, and Other. The Leasing segment leases office buildings and commercial facilities, and other properties. The Property Sales segment is involved in the sale of condominiums and detached housing to individuals; and rental housing and office buildings and other to investors. The Management segment engages in the property management and brokerage and asset management businesses. The Other segment engages in the housing construction and renovation business; and housing related material sales business. The company also offers car park leasing services; and operates hotels, golf courses, and resort facilities. In addition, it engages in the renewal work for offices and retail facilities; and electricity transmission and distribution and heat supply businesses, as well as operates as a retailer of flowers and ornamental plants, seeds, and other gardening products. The company was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyMitsui Fudosan generates revenue primarily through its real estate development and management activities. Key revenue streams include property sales from residential and commercial developments, leasing income from retail and office properties, and management fees from properties under its management. Additionally, the company earns revenue from hotel operations and real estate investment trusts (REITs). Significant partnerships with local governments, other corporations, and industry stakeholders enhance its project execution and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings. The company's strategic focus on urban redevelopment and sustainable development projects also positions it well for future growth.
Mitsui Fudosan Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 07, 2025
(Q3-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements, including record financial performance and upward revisions of forecasts, indicating strong business momentum. However, challenges such as increased interest burden and losses in nonoperating income and property sales to investors present potential headwinds.Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Highs in Financial Performance
Achieved new record highs for 9-month third quarter in sales, operating income, ordinary income, and profit attributable to owners of parent. Second consecutive record high for operating income and third consecutive record high for net profit.
Upward Revision of Full Year Forecast
Full year forecast for ordinary income revised up from JPY 255 billion to JPY 265 billion, and profit attributable to owners of parent from JPY 215 billion to JPY 220 billion.
Dividend Increase
Full year dividend per share guidance increased by JPY 2 to JPY 72, reflecting the upward revision of the earnings forecast.
Growth in Leasing Segment
Leasing segment revenue increased JPY 47.1 billion and operating income increased JPY 15.2 billion year-on-year, with improvements in office vacancy rates.
Strong Overseas Profit Growth
Overseas profits increased by JPY 20.4 billion year-on-year, with significant contributions from property disposals in the U.S.
Negative Updates
Interest Burden Increase
Interest burden under net interest income and expense increased JPY 17.6 billion year-on-year, primarily due to rising U.S. interest rates.
Decline in Property Sales to Investors
Operating revenue for property sales to investors and overseas individuals fell JPY 35.8 billion and operating income decreased by JPY 12.1 billion year-on-year.
Widening Nonoperating Income and Expense Losses
Overall nonoperating income and expenses was a negative JPY 45.5 billion, a JPY 18.4 billion widening of losses.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter earnings call for Mitsui Fudosan, Executive Manager Atsuro Uchida highlighted several key metrics that underscored the company's financial performance and future outlook. The company achieved record highs in sales, operating income, ordinary income, and profit attributable to owners of parent for the nine-month period, with operating income reaching JPY 245.2 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year. Ordinary income rose by 7.3% to JPY 199.7 billion, while profit attributable to owners of parent surged by 13.1% to JPY 166.4 billion. The full year forecast for ordinary income was revised upwards by JPY 10 billion to JPY 265 billion, and profit attributable to owners of parent was also increased by JPY 5 billion to JPY 220 billion, setting a new record high. In response to these strong results, the company raised its full year dividend per share guidance to JPY 72, up from the previously announced JPY 70, reflecting their confidence in sustained growth. Additionally, the Leasing segment reported significant gains with operating revenues of JPY 606.1 billion, driven by key projects like 50 Hudson Yards in New York, while the Property Sales segment saw mixed results with a decline in operating revenue but stable contract rates. The Management and Facility Operations segments also showed positive momentum, with the latter benefiting from increased ADRs and spectator numbers at Tokyo Dome. Overall, Mitsui Fudosan demonstrated robust financial health and strategic adjustments to capitalize on market conditions.Mitsui Fudosan Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement strength (78) is driven by solid revenue growth (+11.19%) and stable profitability, but operating efficiency appears slightly pressured via a lower EBIT margin. Balance sheet leverage is a key risk (debt-to-equity 1.40) despite improved ROE (7.90%). Cash flow is improving but cash generation efficiency is only moderate (operating cash flow to net income 0.32), keeping the cash flow score (65) restrained.Income Statement
Mitsui Fudosan has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with an 11.19% increase in the latest year, indicating robust demand and effective business strategies. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 24.19%, and the net profit margin is stable at 9.48%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased, suggesting potential pressure on operating efficiency.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.40, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity has improved to 7.90%, showcasing better profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at a moderate level, suggesting a balanced asset structure.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Mitsui Fudosan's free cash flow has shown substantial growth, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.32, indicating room for improvement in cash generation efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.55, reflecting good cash conversion from profits.65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.80T | 2.63T | 2.38T | 2.27T | 2.10T | 2.01T |
| Gross Profit | 692.16B | 635.13B | 593.13B | 526.68B | 450.44B | 397.92B |
| EBITDA | 569.22B | 513.25B | 473.42B | 476.69B | 356.48B | 301.97B |
| Net Income | 308.01B | 248.80B | 224.65B | 197.00B | 176.99B | 129.58B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.75T | 9.86T | 9.49T | 8.84T | 8.21T | 7.74T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 234.28B | 169.68B | 189.81B | 144.26B | 156.23B | 199.64B |
| Total Debt | 4.52T | 4.42T | 4.43T | 4.05T | 3.67T | 3.62T |
| Total Liabilities | 6.43T | 6.59T | 6.25T | 5.81T | 5.29T | 5.09T |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.21T | 3.15T | 3.11T | 2.90T | 2.80T | 2.56T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 327.77B | 20.86B | -65.04B | 29.90B | -88.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 599.25B | 241.70B | 297.71B | 271.47B | 187.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -321.97B | -286.99B | -422.03B | -210.06B | -131.03B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -269.37B | 59.99B | 111.45B | -139.60B | -66.56B |
Mitsui Fudosan Technical Analysis
Neutral
35.37
Price Trends
36.42
Positive
34.73
Positive
32.39
Positive
Market Momentum
1.03
Positive
48.41
Neutral
27.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTSFY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 35.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.25, below the 50-day MA of 36.42, and above the 200-day MA of 32.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MTSFY.
Mitsui Fudosan Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $23.68B | 21.36 | 10.14% | 4.52% | 4.78% | 24.74% | |
70 Outperform | $24.84B | 23.97 | 8.91% | 3.83% | 7.06% | 12.05% | |
69 Neutral | $35.10B | 16.19 | 9.89% | 1.86% | 19.34% | 74.50% | |
66 Neutral | $42.07B | 159.18 | 2.16% | 2.45% | 15.69% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
58 Neutral | $31.89B | 222.00 | ― | 3.98% | 10.88% | 51.13% | |
53 Neutral | $17.85B | 55.31 | 3.38% | 3.57% | -1.64% | -37.58% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
MTSFY
Mitsui Fudosan
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41.76%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.