AvalonBay (AVB)
NYSE:AVB
Want to see AVB full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
AvalonBay
(NYSE:AVB)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$195.00
â–²(12.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/28/26
AVB’s score is driven primarily by solid financial performance—especially strong cash flow and earnings quality—plus a largely positive earnings call highlighting resilient fundamentals, development upside, and accretive buybacks. Technicals are supportive but not fully recovered versus the 200-day trend, while valuation is a key limiter due to the high P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, improving operating cash flow and free cash flow that tracks net income strengthen earnings quality and self-funding capacity. Over 2–6 months this durable cash generation supports interest coverage, funds development starts, and enables buybacks/distributions without immediate reliance on volatile capital markets.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage trend
An uptick in debt-to-equity raises refinancing and liquidity risk over the medium term. If interest rates or market caps shift, higher leverage can constrain flexibility for development or buybacks, and increases sensitivity of cashflows to rate moves and operating volatility over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, improving operating cash flow and free cash flow that tracks net income strengthen earnings quality and self-funding capacity. Over 2–6 months this durable cash generation supports interest coverage, funds development starts, and enables buybacks/distributions without immediate reliance on volatile capital markets.
Read all positive factors
AvalonBay (AVB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$25.46B
Dividend Yield3.83%
Average Volume (3M)978.89K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth1.97%
EPS Growth0.24%
CountryUS
Employees2,928
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Residential
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.33
Shares Outstanding139,111,240
10 Day Avg. Volume829,523
30 Day Avg. Volume978,891
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-8.79
Price to Book (P/B)2.20
Price to Sales (P/S)8.40
P/FCF Ratio18.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$193.08Price Target Upside11.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)4.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.10B
AvalonBay Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
As of December 31, 2020, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 291 apartment communities containing 86,025 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 18 communities were under development and...
How the Company Makes Money
AvalonBay primarily makes money by generating rental-related income from its apartment communities. The main revenue stream is residential lease rent paid by residents for occupying apartment units, typically under one-year leases, with rents rese...
AvalonBay Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 27, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and capital-allocation story: same-store revenue growth, solid occupancy, stronger-than-expected asking rent momentum, robust lease-up velocity, and a compelling development yield spread versus cost of capital. Management demonstrated active capital recycling (dispositions and $200M buybacks in Q1) and emphasized technology-driven NOI targets. Headwinds are largely market- and timing-specific—certain coastal and West Coast markets underperformed, concessions remain elevated in pockets, and management is appropriately cautious by reaffirming guidance given expense timing and peak leasing uncertainty. Overall, positives — including development upside and buyback accretion — materially outweigh the localized challenges.Positive Updates
Same-Store Revenue and Occupancy
Same-store residential revenue grew 1.6% year-over-year, with occupancy up 10 basis points to 96.1%, supporting healthy near-term fundamentals.
Negative Updates
Geographic Underperformance in Several Markets
Boston, Los Angeles, and Seattle modestly underperformed revenue expectations in Q1. Los Angeles was noted as particularly challenged with no clear near-term demand catalyst beyond major events.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Same-Store Revenue and Occupancy
Same-store residential revenue grew 1.6% year-over-year, with occupancy up 10 basis points to 96.1%, supporting healthy near-term fundamentals.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management affirmed 2026 guidance (midpoint unchanged) after a strong Q1 that produced a $0.05 core FFO beat—driven by a $0.20 NOI outperformance (20% revenue / 80% expense timing), plus $0.01 from development NOI and $0.01 from $200M of share repurchases (Q1 repurchases at an implied low‑6% cap rate) and $340M of dispositions closed YTD; they reiterated a calendar‑year rent change target of 2% (1.25% H1, 2.5% H2) with move‑ins ~0% and renewals averaging ~3.5% (blending to 2%), renewal offers for May/June at ~5–5.5%, same‑store revenue +1.6% YoY, occupancy 96.1% (+10 bps), asking rents year‑to‑date in the high‑4% range, lease‑up velocity 32/month (vs. 23 historical) with average lease terms >15 months, Q1 turnover in the low‑30s (expected low‑40s annual), and a development platform of $3.5B underway (on track for ~$800M of 2026 starts) projected to deliver $47M of development NOI in 2026 and $120M in 2027 while targeting $55M of incremental NOI by year‑end (Horizon 1) and $80M longer‑term, with new stabilized yields ~6.3–7% vs a ~4.9% weighted average cost of capital.AvalonBay Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
79
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.04B | 2.91B | 2.77B | 2.59B | 2.29B |
| Gross Profit | 2.04B | 1.84B | 1.78B | 1.67B | 1.44B |
| EBITDA | 2.23B | 2.16B | 1.96B | 2.20B | 1.99B |
| Net Income | 1.05B | 1.08B | 928.83M | 1.14B | 1.00B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 22.19B | 21.00B | 20.68B | 20.46B | 19.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 187.23M | 108.58M | 397.89M | 613.19M | 420.25M |
| Total Debt | 9.33B | 8.25B | 8.14B | 8.48B | 8.27B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.36B | 9.06B | 8.89B | 9.20B | 8.97B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.61B | 11.94B | 11.78B | 11.25B | 10.93B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.41B | 1.41B | 1.36B | 1.25B | 1.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.68B | 1.61B | 1.56B | 1.42B | 1.20B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.40B | -996.86M | -928.96M | -560.42M | -624.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -192.73M | -874.90M | -834.36M | -671.06M | -348.86M |
AvalonBay Technical Analysis
Positive
173.89
Price Trends
170.18
Positive
173.38
Positive
179.26
Negative
Market Momentum
0.74
Negative
64.04
Neutral
83.84
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 173.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 165.79, above the 50-day MA of 170.18, and below the 200-day MA of 179.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.84 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVB.
AvalonBay Risk Analysis
AvalonBay disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AvalonBay reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We may be adversely impacted by climate change. Q4, 2025
AvalonBay Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $25.46B | 17.53 | 9.67% | 3.83% | 1.97% | 0.24% | |
72 Outperform | $24.50B | 61.67 | 8.71% | 4.52% | 4.66% | -4.42% | |
72 Outperform | $17.49B | 36.72 | 10.35% | 3.98% | 5.27% | -14.94% | |
70 Outperform | $17.25B | 23.46 | 6.20% | 4.30% | 3.66% | 65.23% | |
67 Neutral | $14.64B | 60.29 | 8.50% | 3.90% | 1.47% | 230.11% | |
66 Neutral | $15.41B | 28.59 | 7.01% | 4.42% | 0.77% | -31.36% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AVB
AvalonBay
183.45
-20.78
-10.18%
EQR
Equity Residential
65.17
-3.47
-5.06%
MAA
Mid-America Apartment
128.56
-31.84
-19.85%
ESS
Essex Property
263.35
-18.17
-6.45%
CPT
Camden Property
104.45
-11.67
-10.05%
INVH
Invitation Homes
28.53
-5.48
-16.12%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.