AvalonBay (AVB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $26.62B
• Dividend Yield: 3.64%
• Average Volume (3M): 807.46K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.74
• Revenue Growth: 6.44%
• EPS Growth: 37.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,928
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 48
• Industry: REIT - Residential
• EPS (TTM): 1.88
• Shares Outstanding: 142,383,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,226,443
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 807,456
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.87
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.01
• 1Y Price Target: $219.50
• Price Target Upside: 15.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $205.00 ▲(8.28% Upside)

AvalonBay's overall stock score of 70 reflects its strong financial performance and positive earnings guidance, offset by bearish technical indicators. The fair valuation and attractive dividend yield enhance its appeal, while stable governance supports long-term confidence. However, regional challenges and development delays pose risks to near-term performance.

Positive Factors

Earnings

The company reported a Core FFO number of $2.83 which was two cents higher than consensus and ten cents higher than analyst numbers.

Expansion

Avalon acquired two properties in Austin, TX, and six communities in Dallas-Fort Worth, which indicates expansion in strategic locations.

Growth Prospects

AvalonBay Communities is expected to deliver sector-leading growth due to a compelling macro backdrop for the multifamily sector.

Negative Factors

Guidance

2025 Core FFOps guidance was maintained below consensus expectations.

Market Challenges

AvalonBay derives a significant portion of its same-store net operating income from the DC Metro/Baltimore area, where job cuts may impact demand.

Revenue

Same-store revenue guidance was cut due to factors like effective lease rates and bad debt.

AvalonBay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

As of December 31, 2020, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 291 apartment communities containing 86,025 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 18 communities were under development and one community was under redevelopment. The Company is an equity REIT in the business of developing, redeveloping, acquiring and managing apartment communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion markets consisting of Southeast Florida and Denver, Colorado (the Expansion Markets).

How the Company Makes Money

AvalonBay generates revenue primarily through rental income from its multifamily residential properties. The company earns money by leasing apartment units to tenants, which provides a steady stream of cash flow. Additionally, AvalonBay benefits from property management fees charged to its owned and operated properties. The company also engages in property development and redevelopment activities, which can lead to increased rental income once new or renovated units are leased. Key revenue streams include monthly rents, ancillary income from services such as parking and pet fees, and the potential appreciation of property values over time. Significant partnerships with local governments and community organizations may also enhance AvalonBay's ability to develop and manage properties effectively, contributing to its overall earnings.

AvalonBay Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AvalonBay demonstrates solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and profitability. While the income statement reflects operational challenges, the balance sheet and cash flow statements indicate financial stability and robust cash generation capabilities. Focus on operational efficiency could further enhance shareholder value.

Income Statement

AvalonBay shows a strong and consistent revenue growth trajectory with a TTM revenue of $2.95B, up from $2.91B in 2024. The gross profit margin remains solid at around 63.2% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin also improved to 38.8%, showcasing profitability. However, the EBIT margin saw a decrease compared to previous years, reflecting potential operational challenges. Overall, the income statement reflects strong growth and profitability with some room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. The equity ratio stands at 56.2%, reflecting a strong equity position. Return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 9.6% for TTM, demonstrating effective use of shareholders' funds. Although total debt has increased, the company has managed to maintain a solid equity position, indicating financial stability with moderate leverage.

Cash Flow

AvalonBay's cash flow analysis reveals a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.41, indicating strong cash generation capability. The free cash flow growth rate is stable, with minor fluctuations, demonstrating consistent cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.22, confirming efficient conversion of income to cash. Overall, the cash flow statement indicates strong liquidity and effective cash utilization, supporting the company's operational and financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.95B	2.91B	2.78B	2.59B	2.29B	2.30B
Gross Profit	1.86B	1.84B	1.79B	1.67B	1.44B	1.48B
EBITDA	2.23B	2.16B	1.96B	1.64B	1.41B	1.42B
Net Income	1.15B	1.08B	928.83M	1.14B	1.00B	827.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.22B	21.00B	20.68B	20.46B	19.90B	19.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	53.26M	108.58M	397.89M	613.19M	420.25M	216.98M
Total Debt	8.48B	8.25B	8.14B	8.48B	8.27B	7.75B
Total Liabilities	9.30B	9.06B	8.89B	9.20B	8.97B	8.44B
Stockholders Equity	11.92B	11.94B	11.78B	11.25B	10.93B	10.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.40B	1.41B	1.36B	1.25B	1.05B	1.08B
Operating Cash Flow	1.61B	1.61B	1.56B	1.42B	1.20B	1.22B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.16B	-996.86M	-928.96M	-560.42M	-624.05M	-179.43M
Financing Cash Flow	-656.41M	-874.90M	-834.36M	-671.06M	-348.86M	-854.26M

AvalonBay Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 189.32
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 189.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 193.33, below the 50-day MA of 199.20, and below the 200-day MA of 209.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVB.

AvalonBay Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AVB	70 Outperform	$26.62B	22.99	9.77%	3.64%	6.44%	37.67%
UDR	70 Neutral	$12.53B	98.67	3.74%	4.44%	2.29%	-4.89%
MAA	69 Neutral	$16.61B	28.50	9.58%	4.30%	1.19%	10.52%
ESS	68 Neutral	$16.93B	20.42	14.40%	3.92%	7.56%	54.15%
CPT	68 Neutral	$14.84B	73.17	3.30%	3.92%	0.76%	-60.70%
EQR	65 Neutral	$24.25B	24.30	9.20%	4.27%	4.49%	5.87%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$6.82B	13.32	-0.78%	7.20%	3.67%	-27.43%

AvalonBay Corporate Events

AvalonBay Completes $400 Million Senior Notes Offering

On July 10, 2025, AvalonBay Communities, Inc. completed a public offering of $400 million in 5.000% Senior Notes due 2035. The company plans to use the estimated $393.9 million net proceeds for working capital, general corporate purposes, and potentially for land acquisitions, community development, and debt repayment, thereby impacting its operational flexibility and financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVB) stock is a Buy with a $262.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AvalonBay stock, see the AVB Stock Forecast page.

AvalonBay Re-elects Directors at Annual Meeting

At AvalonBay‘s Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 21, 2025, eleven directors were re-elected, executive compensation was approved, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to stable governance and financial oversight, potentially reinforcing stakeholder confidence in its strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVB) stock is a Buy with a $262.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AvalonBay stock, see the AVB Stock Forecast page.