AvalonBay (AVB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $29.40B
• Dividend Yield: 3.35%
• Average Volume (3M): 840.11K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 5.61%
• EPS Growth: 19.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,928
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: REIT - Residential
• EPS (TTM): 1.66
• Shares Outstanding: 142,368,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,001,383
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 840,109
• PEG Ratio: 1.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.61
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.69
• 1Y Price Target: $232.43
• Price Target Upside: 12.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $236.00 ▲(14.46%Upside)

AvalonBay's strong financial performance, positive earnings call sentiment, and stable corporate governance are key strengths. The stock's valuation suggests some caution due to a high P/E ratio, but a solid dividend yield and technical stability provide a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The company reported a Core FFO number of $2.83 which was two cents higher than consensus and ten cents higher than analyst numbers.

Operational Efficiency

Operational model initiatives are ahead of schedule, aiding in achieving a substantial annual NOI target and enhancing acquisition yields.

Strategic Expansion

Avalon acquired two properties in Austin, TX, and six communities in Dallas-Fort Worth, which indicates expansion in strategic locations.

Negative Factors

Cost Pressures

AvalonBay is likely to face higher costs for its developments and weaker demand due to job cuts in its home market.

Demand Concerns

AvalonBay derives a significant portion of its same-store net operating income from the DC Metro/Baltimore area, where job cuts may impact demand.

Market Risks

AvalonBay has been weaker year-to-date, attributed to rising development and DC risks, as well as recent capital allocation decisions.

AvalonBay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

As of December 31, 2020, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 291 apartment communities containing 86,025 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 18 communities were under development and one community was under redevelopment. The Company is an equity REIT in the business of developing, redeveloping, acquiring and managing apartment communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion markets consisting of Southeast Florida and Denver, Colorado (the Expansion Markets).

How the Company Makes Money

AvalonBay primarily generates revenue through the rental income from its extensive portfolio of apartment communities. This rental income is derived from leasing apartment units to individuals and families. Additionally, AvalonBay may generate income through ancillary services such as parking fees, pet fees, and other community-related services that enhance tenant experience. The company focuses on strategic property locations in high-demand urban and suburban areas, which contributes to consistent occupancy rates and rental growth. AvalonBay's revenue model is supported by its ability to effectively manage and optimize its real estate assets through redevelopment and acquisition strategies, ensuring a robust and sustainable earnings stream.

AvalonBay Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AvalonBay shows strong revenue growth and profitability with some room for operational efficiency improvements. The balance sheet is healthy with moderate leverage, and the cash flow statement indicates strong liquidity and effective cash management.

Income Statement

AvalonBay shows a strong and consistent revenue growth trajectory with a TTM revenue of $2.95B, up from $2.91B in 2024. The gross profit margin remains solid at around 63.2% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin also improved to 38.8%, showcasing profitability. However, the EBIT margin saw a decrease compared to previous years, reflecting potential operational challenges. Overall, the income statement reflects strong growth and profitability with some room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. The equity ratio stands at 56.2%, reflecting a strong equity position. Return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 9.6% for TTM, demonstrating effective use of shareholders' funds. Although total debt has increased, the company has managed to maintain a solid equity position, indicating financial stability with moderate leverage.

Cash Flow

AvalonBay's cash flow analysis reveals a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.41, indicating strong cash generation capability. The free cash flow growth rate is stable, with minor fluctuations, demonstrating consistent cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.22, confirming efficient conversion of income to cash. Overall, the cash flow statement indicates strong liquidity and effective cash utilization, supporting the company's operational and financial stability.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.95B	2.91B	2.78B	2.59B	2.29B	2.30B
	Gross Profit
1.86B	1.84B	1.79B	1.67B	1.44B	1.48B
	EBIT
930.54M	915.75M	1.72B	822.12M	651.29M	716.91M
	EBITDA
2.23B	2.16B	1.96B	1.64B	1.41B	1.42B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.15B	1.08B	928.83M	1.14B	1.00B	827.63M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
53.26M	108.58M	397.89M	613.19M	420.25M	216.98M
	Total Assets
21.22B	21.00B	20.68B	20.46B	19.90B	19.20B
	Total Debt
8.48B	8.25B	8.14B	8.32B	8.10B	7.56B
	Net Debt
8.42B	8.14B	7.74B	7.70B	7.68B	7.35B
	Total Liabilities
9.30B	9.06B	8.89B	9.20B	8.97B	8.44B
	Stockholders Equity
11.92B	11.94B	11.78B	11.25B	10.93B	10.75B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.40B	1.41B	1.36B	1.25B	1.05B	1.08B
	Operating Cash Flow
1.61B	1.61B	1.56B	1.42B	1.20B	1.22B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.16B	-996.86M	-928.96M	-560.42M	-624.05M	-179.43M
	Financing Cash Flow
-656.41M	-874.90M	-834.36M	-671.06M	-348.86M	-854.26M

AvalonBay Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 206.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 206.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 204.97, above the 50-day MA of 203.89, and below the 200-day MA of 215.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AVB.

AvalonBay Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AVB	78 Outperform	$29.40B	25.72	9.67%	3.35%	5.61%	19.66%
EQR	74 Outperform	$26.66B	26.87	9.01%	3.95%	3.91%	8.78%
CPT	71 Outperform	$16.62B	108.97	2.47%	3.54%	0.56%	-73.40%
UDR	70 Outperform	$13.77B	116.31	3.40%	4.10%	2.35%	-73.89%
ESS	63 Neutral	$19.32B	27.22	12.09%	3.55%	7.61%	27.83%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$2.85B	10.72	0.40%	6.07%	5.80%	-21.26%
MAA	57 Neutral	$18.06B	31.30	9.37%	4.00%	1.55%	0.73%

AvalonBay Corporate Events

AvalonBay Re-elects Directors at Annual Meeting

At AvalonBay‘s Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 21, 2025, eleven directors were re-elected, executive compensation was approved, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to stable governance and financial oversight, potentially reinforcing stakeholder confidence in its strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVB) stock is a Buy with a $262.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AvalonBay stock, see the AVB Stock Forecast page.