AvalonBay (AVB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $25.07B
• Dividend Yield: 3.97%
• Average Volume (3M): 842.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 7.45%
• EPS Growth: 12.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,928
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Residential
• EPS (TTM): 2.68
• Shares Outstanding: 142,383,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,034,266
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 842,743
• PEG Ratio: 1.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 10.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.00
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.33
• 1Y Price Target: $211.13
• Price Target Upside: 20.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.03B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $188.00 ▲(7.28% Upside)

AvalonBay's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its strong financial performance and reasonable valuation. However, bearish technical indicators and concerns from the earnings call, such as reduced guidance and increased expenses, weigh on the score. The company's development projects and strong balance sheet provide some optimism for future growth.

Positive Factors

Strong Portfolio Positioning

Positioning in high-barrier markets with low supply provides a competitive edge, ensuring demand stability and pricing power.

Development Projects

Large-scale projects ahead of schedule can enhance future earnings, reflecting effective execution and growth potential.

Robust Balance Sheet

Strong liquidity and low leverage provide financial flexibility for investments and resilience against economic downturns.

Negative Factors

Lowered Earnings Guidance

Reduced earnings guidance indicates potential challenges in achieving expected financial performance, impacting investor confidence.

Softening Apartment Demand

Weaker demand due to economic factors can pressure occupancy rates and rental income, affecting revenue stability.

Increased Operating Expenses

Rising expenses can erode profit margins, necessitating cost management to maintain financial health and profitability.

AvalonBay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

As of December 31, 2020, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 291 apartment communities containing 86,025 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 18 communities were under development and one community was under redevelopment. The Company is an equity REIT in the business of developing, redeveloping, acquiring and managing apartment communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion markets consisting of Southeast Florida and Denver, Colorado (the Expansion Markets).

How the Company Makes Money

AvalonBay generates revenue primarily through rental income from its multifamily residential properties. The company earns money by leasing apartment units to tenants, which provides a steady stream of cash flow. Additionally, AvalonBay benefits from property management fees charged to its owned and operated properties. The company also engages in property development and redevelopment activities, which can lead to increased rental income once new or renovated units are leased. Key revenue streams include monthly rents, ancillary income from services such as parking and pet fees, and the potential appreciation of property values over time. Significant partnerships with local governments and community organizations may also enhance AvalonBay's ability to develop and manage properties effectively, contributing to its overall earnings.

AvalonBay Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AvalonBay demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and robust profitability margins. The balance sheet is solid, with a good balance of debt and equity. However, the decline in free cash flow growth is a potential area of concern that could impact future financial flexibility.

Income Statement

AvalonBay's income statement shows a strong performance with a consistent increase in revenue, evidenced by a 15.9% growth in the TTM period. The company maintains healthy margins, including a gross profit margin of 63.13% and a net profit margin of 38.86% for the TTM. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 46.74% and 75.67%, respectively, indicating efficient operational management. However, the slight decline in gross profit margin over the years suggests potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74 in the TTM, indicating prudent leverage. The return on equity is solid at 9.60%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 54.71%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets. However, the gradual increase in total debt over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

AvalonBay's cash flow statement reveals a mixed picture. While the operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.12, indicating good cash generation relative to net income, the free cash flow growth rate has declined by 114.9% in the TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 87.09%, but the negative growth in free cash flow is a concern that needs addressing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.01B	2.91B	2.77B	2.59B	2.29B	2.30B
Gross Profit	1.97B	1.84B	1.78B	1.67B	1.44B	1.48B
EBITDA	2.08B	2.16B	1.96B	2.20B	1.99B	1.75B
Net Income	1.17B	1.08B	928.83M	1.14B	1.00B	827.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.95B	21.00B	20.68B	20.46B	19.90B	19.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	123.31M	108.58M	397.89M	613.19M	420.25M	216.98M
Total Debt	0.00	8.25B	8.14B	8.48B	8.27B	7.75B
Total Liabilities	9.79B	9.06B	8.89B	9.20B	8.97B	8.44B
Stockholders Equity	11.94B	11.94B	11.78B	11.25B	10.93B	10.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.54B	1.41B	1.36B	1.25B	1.05B	1.08B
Operating Cash Flow	1.60B	1.61B	1.56B	1.42B	1.20B	1.22B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.24B	-996.86M	-928.96M	-560.42M	-624.05M	-179.43M
Financing Cash Flow	-830.72M	-874.90M	-834.36M	-671.06M	-348.86M	-854.26M

AvalonBay Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 175.24
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 175.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 182.69, below the 50-day MA of 187.71, and below the 200-day MA of 198.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVB.

AvalonBay Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ESS	72 Outperform	$17.10B	19.51	15.30%	3.90%	6.92%	53.76%
EQR	70 Outperform	$22.59B	19.77	10.55%	4.61%	4.78%	24.74%
INVH	67 Neutral	$17.54B	55.05	5.99%	4.17%	6.82%	27.91%
MAA	66 Neutral	$15.51B	27.36	9.41%	4.72%	0.91%	6.55%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
AVB	65 Neutral	$25.07B	21.48	―	3.97%	7.45%	12.05%
CPT	63 Neutral	$14.35B	70.76	3.30%	4.11%	0.76%	-60.70%

AvalonBay Corporate Events

AvalonBay Communities Reports Steady Q3 2025 Growth

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a prominent equity real estate investment trust (REIT) that develops, acquires, and manages apartment communities across major metropolitan areas in the United States, including regions like New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, and California. The company is known for its strategic expansion into emerging markets such as Raleigh-Durham and Southeast Florida.

AvalonBay Communities’ Earnings Call: Achievements and Challenges

AvalonBay Communities’ recent earnings call painted a picture of both achievements and challenges. The company successfully exceeded its initial guidance and managed costs effectively, which was a highlight of the call. However, challenges in specific regions and delays in development projects were notable concerns. Despite these hurdles, the company’s strategic actions and robust balance sheet instill confidence in its potential for future growth, although near-term challenges in certain markets remain.

AvalonBay Communities Reports Steady Q2 2025 Growth

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a leading equity real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on developing, redeveloping, acquiring, and managing apartment communities across major metropolitan areas in the United States. The company is part of the S&P 500 and operates in regions such as New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, and several others.