AvalonBay (AVB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $25.75B
• Dividend Yield: 3.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 996.12K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: 7.06%
• EPS Growth: 12.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,928
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Residential
• EPS (TTM): 2.68
• Shares Outstanding: 141,594,940
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,089,026
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 996,124
• PEG Ratio: 1.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 10.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 12.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.77
• 1Y Price Target: $207.04
• Price Target Upside: 13.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.15
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.03B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $199.00 ▲(9.42% Upside)

AvalonBay's strong financial performance and reasonable valuation are significant strengths, supporting a solid foundation for future growth. However, technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and mixed earnings call sentiment due to lowered guidance and increased expenses weigh on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Strong Portfolio Positioning

The strategic focus on suburban coastal markets with limited new supply provides a competitive advantage, ensuring stable demand and pricing power.

Development Projects Ahead of Schedule

Timely development projects enhance future earnings potential and shareholder value, benefiting from reduced construction costs and strategic execution.

Robust Balance Sheet

A strong balance sheet with ample liquidity provides financial flexibility for investments and stock buybacks, supporting long-term growth.

Negative Factors

Lowered Earnings Guidance

Reduced earnings guidance reflects challenges in demand and cost management, potentially impacting investor confidence and future profitability.

Softening Apartment Demand

Weaker apartment demand due to economic factors may pressure occupancy rates and rental income, affecting revenue growth and market positioning.

Increased Operating Expenses

Rising operating expenses can erode profit margins and reduce cash flow, challenging cost management and operational efficiency.

AvalonBay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

As of December 31, 2020, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 291 apartment communities containing 86,025 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 18 communities were under development and one community was under redevelopment. The Company is an equity REIT in the business of developing, redeveloping, acquiring and managing apartment communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion markets consisting of Southeast Florida and Denver, Colorado (the Expansion Markets).

How the Company Makes Money

AvalonBay generates revenue primarily through rental income from its multifamily residential properties. The company earns money by leasing apartment units to tenants, which provides a steady stream of cash flow. Additionally, AvalonBay benefits from property management fees charged to its owned and operated properties. The company also engages in property development and redevelopment activities, which can lead to increased rental income once new or renovated units are leased. Key revenue streams include monthly rents, ancillary income from services such as parking and pet fees, and the potential appreciation of property values over time. Significant partnerships with local governments and community organizations may also enhance AvalonBay's ability to develop and manage properties effectively, contributing to its overall earnings.

AvalonBay Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AvalonBay demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and robust profitability margins. The balance sheet is solid, with a good balance of debt and equity. However, the decline in free cash flow growth is a potential area of concern that could impact future financial flexibility.

Income Statement

AvalonBay's income statement shows a strong performance with a consistent increase in revenue, evidenced by a 15.9% growth in the TTM period. The company maintains healthy margins, including a gross profit margin of 63.13% and a net profit margin of 38.86% for the TTM. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 46.74% and 75.67%, respectively, indicating efficient operational management. However, the slight decline in gross profit margin over the years suggests potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74 in the TTM, indicating prudent leverage. The return on equity is solid at 9.60%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 54.71%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets. However, the gradual increase in total debt over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

AvalonBay's cash flow statement reveals a mixed picture. While the operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.12, indicating good cash generation relative to net income, the free cash flow growth rate has declined by 114.9% in the TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 87.09%, but the negative growth in free cash flow is a concern that needs addressing.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.01B	2.91B	2.77B	2.59B	2.29B	2.30B
Gross Profit	1.97B	1.84B	1.78B	1.67B	1.44B	1.48B
EBITDA	2.32B	2.16B	1.96B	2.20B	1.99B	1.75B
Net Income	1.17B	1.08B	928.83M	1.14B	1.00B	827.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.95B	21.00B	20.68B	20.46B	19.90B	19.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	123.31M	108.58M	397.89M	613.19M	420.25M	216.98M
Total Debt	8.89B	8.25B	8.14B	8.48B	8.27B	7.75B
Total Liabilities	9.79B	9.06B	8.89B	9.20B	8.97B	8.44B
Stockholders Equity	11.94B	11.94B	11.78B	11.25B	10.93B	10.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.54B	1.41B	1.36B	1.25B	1.05B	1.08B
Operating Cash Flow	1.60B	1.61B	1.56B	1.42B	1.20B	1.22B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.24B	-996.86M	-928.96M	-560.42M	-624.05M	-179.43M
Financing Cash Flow	-830.72M	-874.90M	-834.36M	-671.06M	-348.86M	-854.26M

AvalonBay Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 181.87
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 181.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 177.61, below the 50-day MA of 183.97, and below the 200-day MA of 196.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AVB.

AvalonBay Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AVB	73 Outperform	$25.75B	22.20	9.79%	3.93%	7.06%	12.05%
MAA	73 Outperform	$16.28B	28.72	9.41%	4.47%	0.91%	6.55%
ESS	72 Outperform	$17.47B	19.93	15.30%	3.88%	6.92%	53.76%
EQR	70 Outperform	$23.43B	20.51	10.55%	4.47%	4.78%	24.74%
INVH	67 Neutral	$17.12B	53.72	5.99%	4.15%	6.82%	27.91%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
CPT	60 Neutral	$14.96B	42.88	5.79%	3.94%	1.41%	-21.93%

AvalonBay Corporate Events

AvalonBay Appoints Conor Flynn to Board of Directors

On November 10, 2025, AvalonBay Communities, Inc. appointed Conor C. Flynn to its Board of Directors. Mr. Flynn, who has been the CEO of Kimco Realty Corporation since 2016, brings extensive experience in real estate investment and management. His appointment as an independent director is expected to enhance AvalonBay’s strategic direction, although he has not been assigned to any board committees yet.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVB) stock is a Hold with a $192.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AvalonBay stock, see the AVB Stock Forecast page.

AvalonBay Communities Balances Optimism with Caution in Earnings Call

AvalonBay Communities’ recent earnings call painted a mixed picture, balancing optimism with caution. The company showcased its robust portfolio and balance sheet, alongside promising development performance. However, these positives were tempered by a reduction in earnings guidance, softer-than-expected apartment demand, and increased operating expenses, particularly in markets facing unique challenges.

AvalonBay Communities Reports Steady Q3 2025 Growth

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a prominent equity real estate investment trust (REIT) that develops, acquires, and manages apartment communities across major metropolitan areas in the United States, including regions like New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, and California. The company is known for its strategic expansion into emerging markets such as Raleigh-Durham and Southeast Florida.