AvalonBay (AVB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $28.70B
• Dividend Yield: 3.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 783.54K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 5.61%
• EPS Growth: 19.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,928
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 61
• Industry: REIT - Residential
• EPS (TTM): 1.66
• Shares Outstanding: 142,368,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 619,517
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 783,536
• PEG Ratio: 4.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 19.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.49
• 1Y Price Target: $230.88
• Price Target Upside: 14.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $225.00 ▲(11.61%Upside)

AvalonBay's overall stock score of 73 reflects a strong financial position and strategic growth initiatives, bolstered by a healthy dividend yield. While technical indicators show mixed signals, the company's diversified portfolio and development projects provide a solid foundation. Economic uncertainties and market-specific challenges present potential risks, but the company's strategic focus and governance stability offer resilience.

Positive Factors

Development Growth

AvalonBay expects to grow its market share in development as broader start activity is low, enabling it to secure better deals and terms.

Financial Performance

The company reported a Core FFO number of $2.83 which was two cents higher than consensus and ten cents higher than analyst numbers.

Strategic Expansion

Avalon acquired two properties in Austin, TX, and six communities in Dallas-Fort Worth, which indicates expansion in strategic locations.

Negative Factors

Cost Pressures

AvalonBay is likely to face higher costs for its developments and weaker demand due to job cuts in its home market.

Market Risks

AvalonBay has been weaker year-to-date, attributed to rising development and DC risks, as well as recent capital allocation decisions.

Regional Challenges

AvalonBay derives a significant portion of its same-store net operating income from the DC Metro/Baltimore area, where job cuts may impact demand.

AvalonBay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

As of December 31, 2020, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 291 apartment communities containing 86,025 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 18 communities were under development and one community was under redevelopment. The Company is an equity REIT in the business of developing, redeveloping, acquiring and managing apartment communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion markets consisting of Southeast Florida and Denver, Colorado (the Expansion Markets).

How the Company Makes Money

AvalonBay primarily generates revenue through the rental income from its extensive portfolio of apartment communities. This rental income is derived from leasing apartment units to individuals and families. Additionally, AvalonBay may generate income through ancillary services such as parking fees, pet fees, and other community-related services that enhance tenant experience. The company focuses on strategic property locations in high-demand urban and suburban areas, which contributes to consistent occupancy rates and rental growth. AvalonBay's revenue model is supported by its ability to effectively manage and optimize its real estate assets through redevelopment and acquisition strategies, ensuring a robust and sustainable earnings stream.

AvalonBay Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AvalonBay presents a solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and profitability. The income statement benefits from consistent revenue and profit margins, though operational efficiency could improve. The balance sheet is healthy with a strong equity position and moderate leverage, and the cash flow statement shows robust cash generation and management.

Income Statement

AvalonBay shows a strong and consistent revenue growth trajectory with a TTM revenue of $2.95B, up from $2.91B in 2024. The gross profit margin remains solid at around 63.2% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin also improved to 38.8%, showcasing profitability. However, the EBIT margin saw a decrease compared to previous years, reflecting potential operational challenges. Overall, the income statement reflects strong growth and profitability with some room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. The equity ratio stands at 56.2%, reflecting a strong equity position. Return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 9.6% for TTM, demonstrating effective use of shareholders' funds. Although total debt has increased, the company has managed to maintain a solid equity position, indicating financial stability with moderate leverage.

Cash Flow

AvalonBay's cash flow analysis reveals a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.41, indicating strong cash generation capability. The free cash flow growth rate is stable, with minor fluctuations, demonstrating consistent cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.22, confirming efficient conversion of income to cash. Overall, the cash flow statement indicates strong liquidity and effective cash utilization, supporting the company's operational and financial stability.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.91B	2.78B	2.59B	2.29B	2.30B
Gross Profit	1.84B	1.79B	1.67B	1.44B	1.48B
EBITDA	2.16B	1.96B	1.64B	1.41B	1.42B
Net Income	1.08B	928.83M	1.14B	1.00B	827.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.00B	20.68B	20.46B	19.90B	19.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	108.58M	397.89M	613.19M	420.25M	216.98M
Total Debt	8.25B	8.14B	8.32B	8.10B	7.56B
Total Liabilities	9.06B	8.89B	9.20B	8.97B	8.44B
Stockholders Equity	11.94B	11.78B	11.25B	10.93B	10.75B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.41B	1.36B	1.25B	1.05B	1.08B
Operating Cash Flow	1.61B	1.56B	1.42B	1.20B	1.22B
Investing Cash Flow	-996.86M	-928.96M	-560.42M	-624.05M	-179.43M
Financing Cash Flow	-874.90M	-834.36M	-671.06M	-348.86M	-854.26M

AvalonBay Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 201.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 201.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 202.19, below the 50-day MA of 202.89, and below the 200-day MA of 211.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVB.

AvalonBay Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EQR	74 Outperform	$25.70B	26.66	9.01%	4.04%	3.91%	8.78%
AVB	73 Outperform	$28.70B	25.33	9.67%	3.42%	5.61%	19.66%
UDR	70 Outperform	$13.42B	114.75	3.40%	4.22%	2.35%	-73.89%
ESS	68 Neutral	$19.51B	28.00	12.09%	3.43%	7.61%	27.83%
CPT	66 Neutral	$16.08B	105.94	2.47%	3.66%	0.56%	-73.40%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$6.87B	17.44	-1.93%	6.95%	4.65%	-24.33%
MAA	62 Neutral	$18.22B	31.79	9.37%	3.97%	1.55%	0.73%

AvalonBay Corporate Events

AvalonBay Completes $400 Million Senior Notes Offering

On July 10, 2025, AvalonBay Communities, Inc. completed a public offering of $400 million in 5.000% Senior Notes due 2035. The company plans to use the estimated $393.9 million net proceeds for working capital, general corporate purposes, and potentially for land acquisitions, community development, and debt repayment, thereby impacting its operational flexibility and financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVB) stock is a Buy with a $262.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AvalonBay stock, see the AVB Stock Forecast page.

AvalonBay Re-elects Directors at Annual Meeting

At AvalonBay‘s Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 21, 2025, eleven directors were re-elected, executive compensation was approved, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to stable governance and financial oversight, potentially reinforcing stakeholder confidence in its strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVB) stock is a Buy with a $262.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AvalonBay stock, see the AVB Stock Forecast page.