MTN Group (MTNOY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.60B
• Dividend Yield: 1.26%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.95K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: 6.96%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 21,975
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Telecommunications Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.33
• Shares Outstanding: 1,833,678,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 332
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,950
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 23.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.17
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $15.56B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(35.43% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/19/26

The score is driven primarily by improved 2025 financial performance—profitability restored and cash flow strengthened—offset by prior-year earnings volatility and ongoing leverage risk. Technicals are mixed with neutral momentum and minor near-term weakness, while valuation is reasonable but not strongly supported by yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified digital & mobile-money revenue

MTN's mix of core connectivity, growing data demand, and mobile-money/fintech services creates multiple durable revenue engines. Mobile-money and digital services can raise ARPU, reduce reliance on pure voice/data cycles, and support higher-margin, platform-based growth across markets over years.

Improved cash generation in 2025

Material FCF improvement provides lasting operational flexibility: it helps fund network capex, support mobile-money investment, and service debt without dilutive capital. Consistent cash generation will be key to sustaining capex and strategic investments if maintained over multiple reporting cycles.

Return to profitability and equity recovery

A return from loss to solid profitability indicates operational resilience and management effectiveness. Recovered equity and ROE suggest the business can generate shareholder returns again, improving long-term capital allocation options and investor confidence if results remain stable.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Telecom is capital-intensive; MTN's debt near equity limits financial flexibility. Elevated leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity and constrains ability to absorb shocks or pursue large M&A. If cash flow softens, debt servicing could force capex cuts or asset sales.

Multi-year revenue & margin volatility

Swinging revenues and margins reduce predictability for investment and valuation. Volatility complicates long-term planning for capex and mobile-money rollouts, and heightens execution risk: one adverse cycle could quickly reverse the recent recovery and strain margins and cash flow.

Regulatory, FX and market complexity exposure

MTN's footprint across diverse African and Middle Eastern markets creates persistent regulatory and FX risk. Spectrum rules, currency swings, or fintech regulation can materially affect ARPU, costs, and repatriation of cash. These structural risks can constrain margins and investment returns over time.

MTN Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MTN Group Limited is a leading telecommunications company headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa, operating in over 20 countries across Africa and the Middle East. The company provides a wide range of services including mobile voice, data services, digital solutions, and mobile financial services. MTN is recognized for its commitment to connecting people and businesses through innovative telecommunications solutions, and it plays a crucial role in driving digital transformation in emerging markets.

How the Company Makes Money

MTN primarily makes money by selling telecommunications connectivity and related digital services across its markets. Key revenue streams include: (1) Mobile service revenue from prepaid and postpaid customers using voice calling, SMS, and mobile data; this is driven by usage/consumption and subscription offers (e.g., bundles and plans) and is typically the largest source of revenue. (2) Data revenue from mobile internet access sold through data bundles and plans; growth is supported by increasing smartphone adoption, network coverage/capacity investment, and rising demand for streaming, social media, and other internet services. (3) Mobile Money and fintech revenue in markets where MTN operates mobile financial services platforms; MTN earns fees/commissions on transactions such as peer-to-peer transfers, cash-in/cash-out via agent networks, merchant payments, bill payments, and other financial-service activities offered through its mobile money ecosystem. (4) Digital/value-added services revenue from offerings beyond basic connectivity (e.g., content, entertainment, and other carrier-enabled digital services), where monetization can come from subscriptions, usage charges, and revenue-sharing arrangements (specific product-level details vary by market). (5) Enterprise and wholesale revenue from providing connectivity and related services to businesses and other operators, which can include managed network services, dedicated data links, and roaming/interconnect arrangements; the exact mix depends on local operating conditions. MTN’s earnings are influenced by factors such as subscriber growth and retention, average revenue per user (ARPU), network quality and coverage, regulatory and spectrum conditions in each country, foreign exchange movements (given multi-currency operations), competition, and the performance of its distribution channels (including agent and retail networks for prepaid and mobile money). Specific significant partnerships: null.

MTN Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials improved sharply in 2025 with a return to solid profitability and materially stronger operating and free cash flow, but the 2024 loss and multi-year margin/earnings volatility reduce stability. Leverage remains meaningful (debt around equity), limiting flexibility despite improved equity and ROE recovery.

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile—down in 2024 and rebounding strongly in 2025—while profitability also swung sharply (a net loss in 2024 followed by a return to solid profitability in 2025). The latest year shows healthy operating profitability and improved net margin, but the multi-year inconsistency in margins and earnings reduces confidence in stability versus peers.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful, with debt running around equity (debt-to-equity roughly ~1.0–1.4 over the period), which is workable for telecom but limits flexibility. Equity has improved into 2025 and returns on equity recovered from negative in 2024 to a moderate positive level in 2025, yet the balance sheet still carries elevated leverage risk if operating conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow improved materially in 2025, with strong free cash flow growth and free cash flow covering a meaningful portion of earnings. That said, cash conversion has not been consistently high across years and cash flow coverage metrics remain moderate rather than robust, suggesting some sensitivity to working capital and investment needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	209.96B	188.00B	221.30B	207.00B	181.65B
Gross Profit	99.96B	131.32B	142.81B	150.81B	133.79B
EBITDA	108.73B	49.99B	72.99B	89.82B	76.59B
Net Income	18.77B	-9.59B	4.09B	19.04B	13.75B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	498.22B	430.96B	434.71B	391.88B	365.80B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	51.44B	99.32B	90.33B	87.67B	83.17B
Total Debt	146.58B	155.74B	148.45B	137.84B	128.82B
Total Liabilities	328.66B	292.51B	284.53B	269.54B	250.82B
Stockholders Equity	144.85B	123.44B	139.21B	116.60B	111.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.74B	15.14B	17.26B	22.31B	32.06B
Operating Cash Flow	72.19B	46.82B	64.06B	68.12B	67.29B
Investing Cash Flow	-38.94B	-33.34B	-52.26B	-43.44B	-30.95B
Financing Cash Flow	-21.97B	-16.20B	-9.48B	-17.42B	-26.18B

MTN Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.23
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MTNOY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.94, below the 50-day MA of 11.61, and below the 200-day MA of 9.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MTNOY.

MTN Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TLK	75 Outperform	$17.82B	16.17	15.56%	6.14%	-5.21%	-7.45%
VIV	70 Outperform	$24.37B	17.32	9.03%	5.03%	-3.16%	4.70%
MTNOY	62 Neutral	$19.60B	16.48	10.60%	1.26%	6.96%	―
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
VOD	60 Neutral	$33.27B	7.35	-8.37%	3.77%	19.67%	-278.51%
SKM	57 Neutral	$11.04B	27.39	3.37%	5.02%	-8.16%	-52.52%