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Motorola Solutions (MSI)
NYSE:MSI

Motorola Solutions (MSI) AI Stock Analysis

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MSI

Motorola Solutions

(NYSE:MSI)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$474.00
▲(0.67% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/13/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (durable margins and robust free cash flow) and a positive earnings outlook with record backlog and margin expansion guidance. Offsetting factors are the elevated leverage profile and a premium valuation, while technicals remain bullish but appear overbought, raising near-term volatility risk.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Consistent, high-quality cash generation (OCF ~$2.84B; FCF ~$2.57B in 2025) supports reinvestment, dividends and buybacks. Strong FCF conversion (~90.7% of net income) underpins balance-sheet resilience and funds strategic M&A or product investment without sole reliance on equity.
Durable, high operating margins
Sustained >30% non-GAAP operating margins and improving net margin (~18.4% in 2025) reflect structural profitability across hardware and software lines. High margins indicate pricing power, scale benefits and a favorable mix shift to higher-margin software & services, supporting long-term earnings durability.
Growing recurring software & strategic product approvals
Double-digit growth and high margins in Software & Services, plus FedRAMP approval and new AI Assist Suites, expand recurring revenue and customer lock-in. These product and certification milestones increase predictable, sticky revenue and improve long-term gross margin mix.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage after 2025 financing
Debt rising to ~$10.1B with debt-to-equity near 4.2x meaningfully raises financial leverage. Elevated leverage increases interest-service risk, reduces capital allocation flexibility, and heightens sensitivity to demand shocks or rising rates, constraining strategic optionality over the medium term.
Higher operating expenses and interest from acquisitions
Acquisition-driven OpEx increases and elevated interest costs are structural cost items that can persist while integrations and growth initiatives scale. Higher ongoing SG&A and financing expenses can compress incremental free cash flow and require sustained margin gains to preserve return generation.
Commercial constraints for Silvus expansion
Silvus acquisition offers addressable-market upside, but spectrum/STAs limit public-safety commercialization in key domestic markets. Regulatory and spectrum dependencies can delay revenue synergies and recurring-service adoption, prolonging the timeline to realize acquisition value.

Motorola Solutions (MSI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Motorola Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMotorola Solutions, Inc. provides mission critical communications and analytics in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Products and Systems Integration, and Software and Services. The Products and Systems Integration segment offers a portfolio of infrastructure, devices, accessories, and video security devices and infrastructure, as well as the implementation, and integration of systems, devices, software, and applications for government, public safety, and commercial customers who operate private communications networks and video security solutions, as well as manage a mobile workforce. Its land mobile radio communications and video security and access control devices include two-way portable and vehicle-mounted radios, fixed and mobile video cameras, and accessories; radio network core and central processing software, base stations, consoles, and repeaters; and video analytics, network video management hardware and software, and access control solutions. The Software and Services segment provides repair, technical support, and hardware maintenance services. This segment also offers monitoring, software updates, and cybersecurity services; and public safety and enterprise command center software, unified communications applications, and video software solutions through on-premise and as a service. It serves government, public safety, and commercial customers. The company was formerly known as Motorola, Inc. and changed its name to Motorola Solutions, Inc. in January 2011. Motorola Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1928 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyMotorola Solutions generates revenue through a diversified model that includes hardware sales, software solutions, and services. Key revenue streams consist of selling radios and communication devices, which form a significant portion of its income. Additionally, the company offers software solutions for dispatch, incident management, and analytics, contributing to recurring revenue through subscriptions and long-term contracts. Its services, including maintenance and support, also provide a steady revenue base. Collaborations with public safety organizations and government contracts enhance its earnings, as these partnerships often result in large-scale deployments of its technology. The focus on innovation and expanding its product offerings, such as cloud-based solutions and integrated security systems, further supports its financial growth.

Motorola Solutions Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Motorola Solutions is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsMotorola Solutions' North American revenue shows strong growth momentum, with significant increases in recent quarters, aligning with the company's optimistic earnings guidance. The international segment, while growing, lags behind North America. The earnings call highlights robust demand, particularly in software and services, and a record backlog, suggesting sustained revenue potential. Despite tariff challenges and potential government shutdown impacts, the strategic integration of acquisitions like Silvus and a focus on public safety solutions are expected to drive continued growth, particularly in North America.
Data provided by:The Fly

Motorola Solutions Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong, broad-based operational and financial momentum: record revenue, operating earnings, margins, and cash flow, sizable backlog growth and large customer wins, successful product launches (SVX, APEX Next, Assist Suites), and an upgraded Silvus revenue outlook. Offsetting items include tariff and parts cost headwinds, higher OpEx and interest from acquisitions and financing, product-backlog normalization and seasonal Q1 softness, and some commercialization limits for Silvus tied to spectrum. On balance, the positive operational execution, robust cash generation, margin expansion, and raised guidance materially outweigh the manageable near-term headwinds, indicating a constructive outlook.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Company Financials and Margins
Full-year 2025 revenue of $11.7B (+8% YoY); non-GAAP EPS $15.38 (+11% YoY); GAAP EPS $12.75 (+38% YoY, aided by prior-year accounting impact). Company achieved first-ever >30% annual non-GAAP operating margin (30.3%, +130 bps YoY).
Strong Quarterly Performance
Q4 revenue +12% YoY (above guidance). Q4 non-GAAP operating earnings $1.1B (+19% YoY) and non-GAAP operating margin a record 32.1% (+170 bps YoY). Q4 non-GAAP EPS $4.59 (+14% YoY).
Robust Orders and Record Backlog
Orders grew 26% in the quarter; ending backlog hit an all-time record $15.7B (up $1.0B YoY and $1.2B sequentially), driven by record orders across product and services.
Outstanding Cash Generation
Record operating cash flow of $2.8B for 2025 (+19% YoY) and record free cash flow of $2.6B (+21% YoY). Company expects ~ $3B operating cash flow in 2026.
Segment Strength — Products & SI and Software & Services
Products & SI Q4 sales +11% with Q4 operating margin 30.9%. Software & Services Q4 revenue +15% with Q4 operating margin 34.3% (up from 30.3% YoY). Full-year S&S revenue +13% and full-year S&S operating margin 32.5% (+170 bps YoY).
Regional Momentum
International Q4 revenue grew 26% YoY with double-digit growth across segments and technologies; North America Q4 revenue +7% YoY.
Notable Large Orders and Customer Wins
Several sizeable Q4 wins highlighted: $180M P25 system (Tennessee), $162M P25 device/SVX order (U.S. federal), $201M ten-year P25 services renewal (Maryland), multiple TETRA and Command Center orders, and Silvus orders including a $20M unmanned systems order.
Product and Go-to-Market Milestones
Launched SVX body‑worn assistant (shipped >15,000 units), received FedRAMP approval for APEX Next radios, applications and digital evidence management, and launched AI-powered Assist Suites (dispatcher and responder) priced at $99/user/month to drive recurring revenue.
Silvus Acquisition and Upside
Completed Silvus acquisition as part of ~$4.9B of 2025 M&A; raised Silvus revenue expectations for 2026 to $675M (an increase of $75M vs. prior expectation) driven by international and unmanned-systems demand (Ukraine, UK, Germany).
Prudent Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns
2025 capital deployment included $1.2B in share repurchases (including $490M in Q4), $728M dividends (dividend increased 11% — 14th consecutive double-digit increase), and disciplined M&A funded by strategic financing.
2026 Guidance and Growth Targets
Guidance: Q1 revenue growth 6–7% with non-GAAP EPS $3.20–3.25; full-year revenue ~ $12.7B and non-GAAP EPS $16.70–16.85. Segment-level guidance: S&S +10–11% and Products & SI +7–8%; technology targets include Video +10–11% and Command Center ~15%.
Negative Updates
Tariffs and Cost Headwinds
Management expects an incremental tariff headwind of approximately $60M in the first half of 2026; tariffs were called out as a partial offset to margin expansion in 2025 and 2026 planning.
Rising Operating Expenses from Acquisitions
Q4 OpEx was $700M, up $48M YoY, and full-year OpEx $2.6B (+$140M YoY), primarily driven by acquisition-related expenses and increased investments in higher growth businesses.
Higher Interest Expense and Increased Leverage
Company issued $2.0B of senior notes and $1.5B term loans to fund Silvus; has higher interest expense and an outstanding term loan balance of $1.3B after partial repayment, contributing to higher financing costs.
Backlog Normalization and Product Backlog Decline
Product backlog declined $323M YoY (−8%), driven by strong LMR shipments in H1 when supply-chain-driven backlog normalized; management expects seasonal backlog declines into Q1 as business returns to quicker-turn cadence.
Higher Effective Tax Rate
Effective tax rate rose to 22.3% for 2025 (from 22% prior year); Q4 tax rate was 23.6% versus 22% in the year-ago quarter due to lower share-based compensation benefits, reducing net income versus prior-year comparisons.
Parts and Memory Cost Pressure
Management plans for increases in memory and certain component costs (memory noted as under $50M input today but expected to increase), with mitigations including vendor management and selective price actions; these are potential margin pressures.
Commercial Constraints for Silvus in Public Safety
Silvus growth to date is defense- and international-led; expansion into state and local public-safety/commercial markets requires spectrum availability (STAs) and may be incremental only where spectrum constraints are resolved.
Near-term Seasonality / Q1 Headwinds
Guidance implies a seasonal Q1 decline (organic) relative to Q4; management highlighted Q1 as likely stronger for orders but with revenue patterns reflecting normal seasonality and backlog normalization.
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 revenue to increase 6–7% with non‑GAAP EPS of $3.20–$3.25 (assumes ~168 million diluted shares and a 20.5% effective tax rate). For full‑year 2026 they expect about $12.7 billion of revenue, non‑GAAP EPS of $16.70–$16.85 (≈168 million shares, ~22.5% tax rate), roughly $3.0 billion of operating cash flow, and ~100 basis points of operating margin expansion; the outlook includes about $100 million of favorable FX and assumes an incremental tariff headwind of ~ $60 million in H1. Segment and technology targets in the guide are: Software & Services growth 10–11%, Products & SI 7–8%, video 10–11%, Command Center 15%, and MCN 7–8% (with MCN accelerating in H2), and management expects continued double‑digit product orders.

Motorola Solutions Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong profitability and expanding margins with steady multi-year revenue growth, plus robust and high-quality free cash flow generation. The main offset is elevated leverage after the 2025 debt increase and relatively thin equity, which reduces financial flexibility.
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Motorola Solutions shows strong, durable profitability with expanding margins. Revenue has grown steadily from $7.4B (2020) to $11.7B (2025), and 2025 net margin improved to ~18.4% (vs. ~14.6% in 2024). Operating profitability is also strong (2025 operating margin ~25.2%), supporting healthy earnings power despite a more moderate revenue growth pace in 2025 (~3.3%) versus the stronger growth rates seen in 2021–2023.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The balance sheet is the key mixed area: leverage is elevated relative to equity. Total debt increased to ~$10.1B in 2025 (from ~$6.6B in 2024), and debt-to-equity remains high (~4.19x in 2025). Equity has improved from negative levels in 2020–2021 to positive since 2022, but it is still relatively thin versus the debt load, which can limit flexibility in a tougher demand or rate environment.
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
Cash generation is a clear strength. Operating cash flow and free cash flow have trended upward over time, reaching ~$2.84B and ~$2.57B in 2025, respectively, with free cash flow growth of ~6.5% in 2025. Free cash flow conversion is solid (free cash flow is ~90.7% of net income in 2025), indicating earnings quality is supported by cash, although operating cash flow covers less than half of total debt (coverage ~0.47x in 2025), reflecting the higher leverage.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue11.68B10.82B9.98B9.11B8.17B
Gross Profit5.86B5.51B4.97B4.23B4.04B
EBITDA3.52B2.60B2.75B2.19B2.21B
Net Income2.15B1.58B1.71B1.36B1.25B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets19.39B14.60B13.34B12.81B12.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.17B2.10B1.71B1.32B1.87B
Total Debt9.77B6.55B6.55B6.55B6.13B
Total Liabilities16.96B12.88B12.60B12.68B12.21B
Stockholders Equity2.41B1.70B724.00M116.00M-40.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.57B2.13B1.79B1.57B1.59B
Operating Cash Flow2.84B2.39B2.04B1.82B1.84B
Investing Cash Flow-5.16B-507.00M-414.00M-1.39B-742.00M
Financing Cash Flow1.31B-1.45B-1.29B-906.00M-429.00M

Motorola Solutions Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price470.85
Price Trends
50DMA
401.73
Positive
100DMA
405.11
Positive
200DMA
420.33
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
18.88
Negative
RSI
81.18
Negative
STOCH
90.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 470.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 431.30, above the 50-day MA of 401.73, and above the 200-day MA of 420.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 18.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.18 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MSI.

Motorola Solutions Risk Analysis

Motorola Solutions disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Motorola Solutions reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Motorola Solutions Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$78.00B36.49104.74%1.18%6.17%35.41%
74
Outperform
$308.64B27.3524.34%2.09%8.91%14.53%
70
Outperform
$36.83B12.772.51%1.04%
67
Neutral
$26.91B-265.750.23%2.17%14.17%-102.25%
66
Neutral
$11.60B28.8811.68%13.35%34.73%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
59
Neutral
$41.58B57.743.20%2.26%5.05%115.92%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MSI
Motorola Solutions
470.85
49.19
11.67%
CSCO
Cisco Systems
78.14
15.58
24.91%
ERIC
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson
11.03
2.95
36.58%
NOK
Nokia
7.49
2.70
56.33%
ZBRA
Zebra Tech
235.83
-83.65
-26.18%
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise
20.25
0.41
2.07%

Motorola Solutions Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Motorola Solutions Expands Board with New Appointment
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

On November 18, 2025, Motorola Solutions announced the expansion of its Board of Directors from seven to eight members, appointing Dr. Mark E. Lashier as a new director and member of the Governance and Nominating Committee. Dr. Lashier, currently the Chairman and CEO of Phillips 66, brings over 30 years of experience in the energy and petrochemical industries to the board. His appointment is expected to enhance Motorola Solutions’ leadership as it continues to innovate and invest in safety and security solutions globally.

The most recent analyst rating on (MSI) stock is a Buy with a $449.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Motorola Solutions stock, see the MSI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 13, 2026