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Cisco Systems (CSCO) AI Stock Analysis

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CSCO

Cisco Systems

(NASDAQ:CSCO)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$79.00
▲(16.19% Upside)
Cisco's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the stock score. The company's strategic focus on AI and innovation, coupled with robust cash flow management, supports its competitive position. Technical analysis and valuation present moderate concerns, but they are outweighed by the company's solid fundamentals and growth prospects.
Positive Factors
AI and Networking Growth
Cisco continues to execute in line with expectations, benefiting from an enterprise refresh cycle in networking and incremental AI revenues from hyperscalers.
AI Infrastructure
AI infrastructure orders reached $800mn for the quarter and $2.1bn for the year, while overall networking orders grew double digits in 4Q.
Legal Settlement
The legal settlement results in an escrow return to the company and a forfeiture of supplier prepayments, with no additional cash outlay by Cisco.
Negative Factors
Global Economic Concerns
Cisco could be adversely affected by weaker-than-anticipated global economic growth and market share losses across key product areas.
Macro Uncertainty and Competition
Broader macro uncertainty and the persistence of tough competition across its core markets are seen as offsetting factors for Cisco's growth.
Security and Observability Challenges
Continued underperformance in Security & Observability segments.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Cisco Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology industry in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and China. The company also offers switching portfolio encompasses campus switching as well as data center switching; enterprise routing portfolio interconnects public and private wireline and mobile networks, delivering highly secure, and reliable connectivity to campus, data center and branch networks; and wireless products include indoor and outdoor wireless coverage designed for seamless roaming use of voice, video, and data applications. In addition, it provides security, which comprising network security, identity and access management, secure access service edge, and threat intelligence, detection, and response offerings; collaboration products, such as Webex Suite, collaboration devices, contact center, and communication platform as a service; end-to-end collaboration solutions that can be delivered from the cloud, on-premise or within hybrid cloud environments allowing customers to transition their collaboration solutions from on-premise to the cloud; and observability offers network assurance, monitoring and analytics and observability suite. Further, the company offers a range of service and support options for its customers, including technical support and advanced services and advisory services. It serves businesses of various sizes, public institutions, governments, and service providers. The company sells its products and services directly, as well as through systems integrators, service providers, other resellers, and distributors. Cisco Systems, Inc. has strategic alliances with other companies. Cisco Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyCisco generates revenue primarily through the sale of hardware, software, and services. Key revenue streams include the sale of networking equipment such as routers and switches, which are essential for data traffic management. Additionally, the company earns substantial income from its software solutions, particularly in areas like cybersecurity and cloud services, as enterprises increasingly move towards digital transformation. Subscription-based services, particularly for collaboration tools and security solutions, represent a growing segment of Cisco's revenue model. Furthermore, Cisco often enters into strategic partnerships with other technology providers and enterprises, enhancing its product offerings and market reach, which contributes significantly to its overall earnings. This multi-faceted approach allows Cisco to maintain a strong presence in the tech industry and adapt to changing market demands.

Cisco Systems Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Annual Recurring Revenue
Annual Recurring Revenue
Indicates the stable, predictable income from subscription-based services, highlighting the company's ability to generate consistent cash flow and customer loyalty.
Chart InsightsCisco's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) experienced a significant uptick in 2024, driven by strong growth in AI infrastructure orders and security offerings, as highlighted in the earnings call. This momentum aligns with the company's strategic focus on subscription-based models, which now constitute a majority of total revenue. However, the recent data shows a sudden drop to zero, likely due to data reporting issues rather than a true decline, as the earnings call underscores robust financial health and continued shareholder returns.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Cisco Systems Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Cisco's Q4 earnings call reflected strong financial performance with significant growth in AI infrastructure orders and solid overall product orders. However, challenges such as a decline in public sector orders and flat services revenue tempered the positive results. The company demonstrated robust innovation and strategic partnerships, positioning itself well for future growth, but certain segments like security still face growth challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Cisco reported a total revenue of $14.7 billion for Q4, up 8% year-over-year. Non-GAAP net income was $4 billion, up 12%, and non-GAAP earnings per share was $0.99, up 14%.
Record AI Infrastructure Orders
Record AI infrastructure orders from webscale customers exceeding $800 million in Q4, bringing the fiscal year total to over $2 billion, more than double the original $1 billion target.
Robust Product Orders Growth
Total product orders in Q4 grew 7% year-over-year with strong growth in service provider and cloud customers, up 49% year-over-year.
Strong Cash Flow and Shareholder Return
Cisco returned $2.9 billion to shareholders in Q4 through share repurchases and dividends, totaling $12.4 billion for fiscal year 2025, representing 94% of free cash flow.
Continued Innovation and AI Integration
Cisco introduced over 20 new offerings at Cisco Live U.S. to support AI-ready data centers and workplaces, including integrations with NVIDIA.
Negative Updates
Decline in Public Sector Orders
Public sector orders were down 6% year-over-year in Q4 despite sequential growth in line with normal seasonality.
Flat Services Revenue
Services revenue was $3.8 billion, flat year-over-year, with a deceleration trend observed over the last five quarters.
Security Growth Challenges
Security orders showed mid-single-digit growth, with older product lines not being major investment areas, impacting overall growth rates.
Company Guidance
During Cisco's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming fiscal year 2026, highlighting several key metrics. Cisco expects revenue to be in the range of $59 billion to $60 billion, with a non-GAAP earnings per share between $4 and $4.06. For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company anticipates revenue to range from $14.65 billion to $14.85 billion, with a non-GAAP operating margin expected between 33% and 34%. The non-GAAP gross margin is projected to be between 67.5% and 68.5%, while the non-GAAP earnings per share is estimated to fall between $0.97 and $0.99. Cisco also emphasized its focus on leveraging AI opportunities, expecting significant contributions from AI infrastructure, enterprise clouds, and AI network connectivity to drive growth in fiscal year 2026.

Cisco Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cisco Systems exhibits solid financial performance with steady revenue growth, strong profitability, and efficient cash flow management. Minor concerns exist regarding operating margin pressures and moderate leverage, but overall financial health remains robust.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Cisco Systems has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a 1.85% increase in the latest year. The company maintains strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 63.87% and a net profit margin of 18.45%. However, there is a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins compared to previous years, indicating potential pressure on operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity remains robust at 22.19%, showcasing effective utilization of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio suggests a moderate reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Cisco's cash flow position is strong, with a 3.79% growth in free cash flow, indicating healthy cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.40 suggests efficient cash conversion, while the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.94 highlights substantial cash retention relative to earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue56.65B56.65B53.80B57.00B51.56B49.82B
Gross Profit36.90B36.18B34.83B35.75B32.25B31.89B
EBITDA15.86B15.86B15.75B17.47B16.79B15.56B
Net Income10.45B10.45B10.32B12.61B11.81B10.59B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets122.56B122.56B124.41B101.85B94.00B97.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments16.11B16.11B19.37B26.34B19.27B24.52B
Total Debt28.09B28.09B32.23B9.41B10.56B12.69B
Total Liabilities75.45B75.45B78.96B57.50B54.23B56.22B
Stockholders Equity47.12B47.12B45.46B44.35B39.77B41.27B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow13.29B13.29B10.21B19.04B12.75B14.76B
Operating Cash Flow14.19B14.19B10.88B19.89B13.23B15.45B
Investing Cash Flow1.73B1.73B-20.48B-5.11B1.55B-5.29B
Financing Cash Flow-15.81B-15.81B6.84B-11.63B-15.96B-12.10B

Cisco Systems Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price67.99
Price Trends
50DMA
68.39
Negative
100DMA
64.78
Positive
200DMA
62.11
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Positive
RSI
49.03
Neutral
STOCH
39.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSCO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 67.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.54, below the 50-day MA of 68.39, and above the 200-day MA of 62.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CSCO.

Cisco Systems Risk Analysis

Cisco Systems disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cisco Systems reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cisco Systems Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$177.43B55.5133.64%25.97%31.05%
80
Outperform
$268.78B26.5822.65%2.42%5.30%3.07%
77
Outperform
$29.76B23.435.37%2.21%14.16%-38.96%
68
Neutral
$17.62B27.2520.58%8.94%22.30%
67
Neutral
$58.57B30.51165.17%14.46%48.06%
62
Neutral
$24.58B22.484.31%3.37%-2.39%157.33%
61
Neutral
$35.51B8.11-11.05%1.89%8.55%-8.72%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CSCO
Cisco Systems
67.99
20.79
44.05%
FFIV
F5 Networks
315.89
116.96
58.79%
FTNT
Fortinet
78.83
3.67
4.88%
NOK
Nokia
4.55
0.41
9.90%
ANET
Arista Networks
141.17
62.59
79.65%
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise
23.16
6.13
36.00%

Cisco Systems Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Cisco Systems Amends Bylaws for Director Nominations
Neutral
Aug 25, 2025

On August 21, 2025, Cisco Systems‘ Board of Directors amended the company’s bylaws to address deficiencies in director nomination notices submitted by stockholders. These amendments, which became effective immediately, include a cure process for such deficiencies and incorporate ministerial changes for clarity and consistency, potentially impacting shareholder engagement and governance processes.

Executive/Board Changes
Cisco Systems Appoints New CFO Mark Patterson
Neutral
Jun 9, 2025

On June 5, 2025, Cisco Systems‘ Compensation and Management Development Committee approved an equity award for Mark Patterson, marking his appointment as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Patterson received 47,832 restricted stock units, which will vest over three years, reflecting Cisco’s strategic approach to executive compensation and leadership development.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 27, 2025