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Cisco Systems (CSCO)
NASDAQ:CSCO

Cisco Systems (CSCO) AI Stock Analysis

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Cisco Systems

(NASDAQ:CSCO)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$73.00
▲( 15.67% Upside)
Cisco Systems demonstrates robust financial performance with strong profitability and cash flow, underpinning its stability in the communication equipment industry. While technical indicators suggest caution due to potential overbought conditions, the positive momentum aligns well with strategic growth in AI infrastructure and partnerships. Valuation remains a concern due to a higher P/E ratio, yet the company's dividend yield adds some long-term investment appeal. Overall, Cisco is well-positioned for growth, though investors should remain mindful of external challenges such as tariffs and sector-specific headwinds.
Positive Factors
AI momentum
Cisco received over $600M in new AI orders in F3Q25 compared to $350M in F2Q25, indicating accelerating AI momentum.
Enterprise demand
Resilient demand in relation to Networking upgrades from Enterprises customers, which remains very early in the recovery cycle.
Revenue and margin performance
CSCO delivered a solid beat and raise during F3Q25 with strong revenue and margin performance.
Negative Factors
Competition concerns
Concerns about tough competition could confine earnings growth to the midsingle-digit range.
Security challenges
Security remains weak, with declines in legacy activities only partially offset by new product growth.
Tariff headwinds
Guidance assumes tariffs rates of 30% for China, 25% for Canada and Mexico, and 10% for other countries until July 9, which could create more substantial headwinds for Cisco.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Cisco Systems Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCisco Systems, Inc. is a global technology leader specializing in networking hardware, telecommunications equipment, and other high-technology services and products. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California, and operates across various sectors, including enterprise networks, security, collaboration, and the Internet of Things (IoT). Cisco is renowned for its core products like routers, switches, and advanced networking solutions that empower businesses to connect seamlessly and securely.
How the Company Makes MoneyCisco Systems makes money primarily through the sale of its networking hardware and software solutions. The company generates revenue from multiple streams, including product sales and services. Key product categories include Infrastructure Platforms, which encompasses switching, routing, wireless, and data center products. Additionally, Cisco earns substantial revenue from its Applications segment, offering collaboration tools like Webex, security products, and other software solutions. The Services segment contributes to revenue by providing technical support and advanced services to help customers optimize their network operations. Cisco's strategic acquisitions and partnerships further enhance its product offerings and market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings.

Cisco Systems Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Annual Recurring Revenue
Annual Recurring Revenue
Measures the predictable revenue generated from subscriptions or ongoing contracts, reflecting the stability and growth potential of the company's business model.
Chart InsightsCisco's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) experienced a significant uptick in 2024, driven by strong growth in AI infrastructure orders and security offerings, as highlighted in the earnings call. This momentum aligns with the company's strategic focus on subscription-based models, which now constitute a majority of total revenue. However, the recent data shows a sudden drop to zero, likely due to data reporting issues rather than a true decline, as the earnings call underscores robust financial health and continued shareholder returns.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Cisco Systems Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cisco Systems exhibits a strong financial profile characterized by robust profitability, efficient operational management, and impressive cash flow generation. While revenue has slightly declined, the company maintains healthy profit margins and a stable balance sheet. Moderate leverage and strong cash flow metrics provide a solid foundation for sustaining growth and managing financial obligations.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Cisco Systems demonstrates solid profitability with a gross profit margin of 65.2% and a net profit margin of 17.6% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Although revenue decreased slightly by 2.4% compared to the previous year, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong at 20.3% and 18.9%, respectively, indicating efficient operational management. The company maintains robust profitability metrics, despite a slight dip in revenue, showcasing its ability to manage costs effectively.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.64, indicating moderate leverage. Cisco's return on equity (ROE) is strong at 21.3%, suggesting effective use of shareholder capital. The equity ratio is 38.3%, pointing to a well-capitalized structure. Despite a decrease in total assets, the company maintains a healthy equity base, mitigating potential risks from liabilities.
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
Cisco's cash flow performance is impressive, with a free cash flow growth rate of 32.2% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), driven by strong operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.4, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.4, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. This strong cash flow performance supports financial flexibility and growth initiatives.
Breakdown
TTMSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
55.62B53.80B57.00B51.56B49.82B49.30B
Gross Profit
36.29B34.83B35.75B32.25B31.89B31.68B
EBIT
11.29B12.18B15.03B13.97B12.83B13.62B
EBITDA
10.51B15.75B17.47B16.79B15.56B16.36B
Net Income Common Stockholders
9.79B10.32B12.61B11.81B10.59B11.21B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
18.67B17.85B26.15B19.27B24.52B29.42B
Total Assets
123.33B124.41B101.85B94.00B97.50B94.85B
Total Debt
31.99B30.96B8.39B9.52B11.53B14.58B
Net Debt
22.92B23.45B-1.73B2.44B2.35B2.77B
Total Liabilities
78.06B78.96B57.50B54.23B56.22B56.93B
Stockholders Equity
45.28B45.46B44.35B39.77B41.27B37.92B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
13.49B10.21B19.04B12.75B14.76B14.66B
Operating Cash Flow
13.69B10.88B19.89B13.23B15.45B15.43B
Investing Cash Flow
1.18B-20.48B-5.11B1.55B-5.29B3.50B
Financing Cash Flow
-16.37B6.84B-11.63B-16.14B-12.04B-18.89B

Cisco Systems Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price63.11
Price Trends
50DMA
59.23
Positive
100DMA
60.21
Positive
200DMA
56.80
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.46
Negative
RSI
64.23
Neutral
STOCH
52.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.83, above the 50-day MA of 59.23, and above the 200-day MA of 56.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSCO.

Cisco Systems Risk Analysis

Cisco Systems disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cisco Systems reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cisco Systems Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$249.92B25.8621.36%2.55%0.47%-17.77%
MSMSI
74
Outperform
$69.92B34.95189.18%0.99%7.45%46.78%
HPHPE
70
Outperform
$22.88B8.6212.09%2.98%10.93%43.19%
68
Neutral
$29.03B184.651.67%2.08%-2.08%
64
Neutral
$12.03B34.407.58%2.44%-2.56%52.05%
NONOK
64
Neutral
$27.92B35.605.70%1.89%-9.96%-6.83%
61
Neutral
$11.29B10.07-7.05%2.96%7.47%-10.75%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CSCO
Cisco Systems
63.11
18.18
40.46%
JNPR
Juniper Networks
35.99
2.39
7.11%
ERIC
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson
8.66
2.82
48.29%
MSI
Motorola Solutions
418.92
62.54
17.55%
NOK
Nokia
5.34
1.56
41.27%
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise
17.42
-0.49
-2.74%

Cisco Systems Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 2.97%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Cisco's earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and significant growth in AI infrastructure orders, exceeding expectations. Strategic partnerships and shareholder returns were also positive points. However, ongoing tariff uncertainties and specific sector challenges, such as in servers and the public sector, present concerns.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Order Growth
Total product orders grew 20% year-over-year, or 9% on an organic basis, demonstrating strong demand across various sectors despite an uncertain macro environment.
AI Infrastructure Orders Surpass Expectations
AI infrastructure orders from web-scale customers exceeded $600 million in Q3, bringing the year-to-date total to over $1 billion, surpassing the original fiscal year '25 target a quarter early.
Strong Shareholder Returns
Cisco returned $3.1 billion in capital to shareholders in Q3 through share repurchases and dividends, with a total of $9.6 billion returned year-to-date.
Security Orders Growth
Security orders grew in high double digits in Q3, including a large multiyear deal with a major financial services company for Splunk's security and observability platforms.
New Strategic Partnerships
Cisco announced new partnerships and investments in AI infrastructure, including collaborations with NVIDIA, Saudi Arabia's HUMAIN, and others to enhance AI capabilities.
Positive Financial Performance
Total revenue was $14.1 billion, up 11% year-over-year, with non-GAAP earnings per share at $0.96, exceeding guidance expectations.
Negative Updates
Tariff Concerns
Continued uncertainty around tariffs, including potential impacts from China, Mexico, and Canada, remains a concern, affecting gross margins.
Challenges in Public Sector
Despite overall growth, stress remains on the civilian side of the U.S. public sector due to agency shutdowns and employment concerns.
Decline in Server Revenue
Networking was up 8%, but this was partially offset by a decline in server revenues, indicating challenges in this segment.
Company Guidance
During Cisco's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance for its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025. Cisco expects fourth-quarter revenue to be between $14.5 billion and $14.7 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin ranging from 67.5% to 68.5%. The non-GAAP operating margin is projected to be between 33.5% and 34.5%, and non-GAAP earnings per share are expected to be between $0.96 and $0.98. For the full fiscal year 2025, Cisco anticipates revenue in the range of $56.5 billion to $56.7 billion, with non-GAAP earnings per share projected to range from $3.77 to $3.79. The guidance reflects assumptions about tariffs remaining in place and highlights uncertainties due to the macroeconomic environment.

Cisco Systems Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cisco Announces Leadership Changes Amidst Executive Retirement
Neutral
May 14, 2025

On May 9, 2025, Scott Herren announced his retirement as Cisco’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective July 26, 2025. Mark Patterson will succeed him, starting July 27, 2025, while Jeetu Patel will become President and Chief Product Officer on May 14, 2025. These leadership changes are expected to influence Cisco’s strategic direction and operational focus, with both Patterson and Patel bringing extensive experience within the company and the tech industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSCO) stock is a Buy with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cisco Systems stock, see the CSCO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Cisco Systems Appoints Kevin Weil to Board
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 12, 2025, Cisco Systems appointed Kevin Weil, Chief Product Officer of OpenAI, to its Board of Directors, recognizing him as an independent member under Nasdaq standards. Weil will receive standard compensation for non-employee directors, including cash and equity options, and has entered into Cisco’s Indemnity Agreement, ensuring legal protection during his tenure.

The most recent analyst rating on (CSCO) stock is a Buy with a $62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cisco Systems stock, see the CSCO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.