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Millrose Properties Inc Class A (MRP)
NYSE:MRP
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Millrose Properties Inc Class A
(NYSE:MRP)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▲(4.69% Upside)
The score is held back most by weak reported profitability/cash generation and soft technical momentum, partially offset by a strong, low-leverage balance sheet, a supportive dividend yield, and an upbeat earnings call with raised guidance and dividend increases.
Millrose Properties Inc Class A (MRP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.57B
Dividend Yield6.18%
Average Volume (3M)1.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.7
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Residential
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.63
Shares Outstanding154,183,690
10 Day Avg. Volume1,037,190
30 Day Avg. Volume1,097,391
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.28
Price to Book (P/B)0.71
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-3.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue867.82
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit733.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-24.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.00Price Target Upside18.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)3.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$824.89M
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMillrose Properties is a Homesite Option Purchase Platform (HOPP'R), an evolution of residential land banking, accelerating homebuilders' capital-efficient growth of controlled land positions. As a publicly traded Homesite Option Purchase Platform, Millrose provides investors with a unique residential real estate backed income-generating investment opportunity historically limited to institutional investors.
How the Company Makes Money
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights Millrose Properties' significant achievements in expanding partnerships, increasing financial strength, and leveraging their proprietary technology platform. Despite the impact of one-time expenses on net income, the company's overall performance is strong, with increased dividends and improved guidance for year-end performance.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Cash Proceeds
Generated $852 million in net cash proceeds from homesite sales, including $766 million from Lennar.
Expansion of Homebuilder Relationships
Partnered with 12 distinct counterparties, indicating broad-based market demand and scalability.
Strong Financial Position
Completed $2 billion in senior note offerings and maintained a conservative debt-to-capitalization ratio of 25%.
Increased Dividend Yield
Increased quarterly dividend to $0.73 per share, representing an 8.2% dividend yield.
Guidance Increase
Raised guidance for year-end AFFO run rate to $0.74 to $0.76 per share and increased full-year 2025 new transaction funding target to $2.2 billion.
Proprietary Technology Platform
Highlighted the strategic advantages of the proprietary technology platform in managing nearly 140,000 homesites.
Negative Updates
One-Time Expenses Impact
Net income negatively impacted by one-time expenses associated with debt financing activities.
Company Guidance
During the Millrose Properties Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Results Conference Call, the company provided robust guidance and discussed key metrics that demonstrate its strong financial and operational performance. Millrose generated $852 million in net cash proceeds from homesite sales, with significant contributions from Lennar, and redeployed $858 million in new land acquisitions and development funding. The company reported a weighted average yield of 11.3% on invested capital outside the Lennar Master Program Agreement, highlighting its effective capital deployment strategy. Millrose's portfolio now includes approximately 139,000 homesites across 876 communities in 30 states. Additionally, the company raised $2 billion in senior notes, strengthening its balance sheet and maintaining a conservative debt-to-capitalization ratio of 25%. Millrose increased its quarterly dividend to $0.73 per share and raised its guidance for year-end AFFO run rate to $0.74 to $0.76 per share. The company also increased its full-year 2025 new transaction funding target to $2.2 billion, surpassing the initial goal of $2 billion, while maintaining a commitment to distribute 100% of its AFFO to shareholders.Millrose Properties Inc Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall fundamentals are mixed: the income statement and cash flow show sustained, widening losses and deeply negative operating/free cash flow (including periods with zero reported revenue), but the balance sheet is a clear offset with very low leverage and growing equity/assets, providing flexibility despite negative returns.Income Statement
Across 2022–2024, the company reports zero revenue while generating sizable operating losses and net losses (net income of -$144M in 2022, -$210M in 2023, and -$246M in 2024). Losses have widened over time, indicating weakening profitability and limited earnings visibility based on the provided data. A key positive is that the balance sheet appears able to absorb losses for now, but the income profile itself is currently very weak.12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a relative strength: debt is very low versus equity (debt-to-equity of ~0.7% in 2023 and ~0.5% in 2024), suggesting limited leverage risk and financial flexibility. Equity and assets increased from 2023 to 2024 (equity ~$4.46B to ~$5.16B; assets ~$4.74B to ~$5.47B). The main concern is continued negative returns on equity (about -4.7% in both 2023 and 2024), driven by ongoing losses.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is weak: operating cash flow and free cash flow are materially negative in each year provided (operating cash flow of -$329M in 2022, -$865M in 2023, and -$917M in 2024), with cash burn accelerating versus 2022. While free cash flow is shown as moving in a better direction in 2024 versus 2023 based on the provided growth figure, absolute cash flow remains deeply negative, increasing reliance on financing or balance-sheet resources.18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 7.31M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 8.65M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -261.62M | -246.22M | -209.79M | 0.00 |
| Net Income | -273.19M | -246.22M | -209.79M | -144.25M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 7.97B | 5.47B | 4.74B | 8.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 66.58M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 1.01B | 24.19M | 32.61M | 117.46M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.10B | 306.92M | 285.16M | 393.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.87B | 5.16B | 4.46B | 7.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.25B | -917.19M | -865.12M | -328.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.39B | -917.19M | -865.12M | -328.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.33B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.79B | 917.19M | 865.12M | 328.64M |
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $1.41B | 23.33 | 5.33% | 2.17% | 3.37% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $4.02B | 172.12 | 0.65% | 3.88% | 0.84% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $1.13B | 48.22 | 4.30% | 4.58% | 36.82% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $4.57B | 22.67 | ― | 6.18% | ― | ― | |
51 Neutral | $775.22M | -15.60 | -12.63% | 7.06% | -4.46% | -206.19% | |
45 Neutral | $837.08M | -5.80 | 171.00% | 7.42% | -4.63% | 42.39% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
MRP
Millrose Properties Inc Class A
29.87
9.76
48.51%
AIV
Apartment Investment & Management
5.81
-0.60
-9.36%
VRE
Veris Residential
15.18
-0.43
-2.73%
CSR
Centerspace
64.18
5.79
9.91%
IRT
Independence Realty
16.26
-2.59
-13.74%
NXRT
NexPoint Residential
29.87
-7.01
-19.01%
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Millrose Properties Declares Increased Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Dec 22, 2025
On December 22, 2025, Millrose Properties, Inc. announced that its board of directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of approximately $124.5 million, or $0.75 per share, on its Class A and Class B common stock, payable January 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 5, 2026. The increased dividend caps Millrose’s first year as a public company and signals management’s confidence in the strength of its homesite option platform, its capital‑recycling capabilities, and its role as a key capital provider to major homebuilders, underscoring the company’s positioning as a critical supplier of finished homesites amid ongoing scarcity in the residential land market.
The most recent analyst rating on (MRP) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Millrose Properties Inc Class A stock, see the MRP Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Millrose Properties Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Positive
Oct 23, 2025
On October 23, 2025, Millrose Properties announced robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting significant cash proceeds from homesite sales and strategic land acquisitions. The company reported a net income of $105.1 million and increased its guidance for year-end invested capital and adjusted funds from operations. Additionally, Millrose completed $2.0 billion in senior notes offerings, enhancing its balance sheet and liquidity, positioning itself for continued growth and strategic initiatives. The company also declared a quarterly dividend and maintained a conservative leverage profile, reflecting strong investor demand and financial flexibility.
The most recent analyst rating on (MRP) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Millrose Properties Inc Class A stock, see the MRP Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.