Millrose Properties Inc Class A (MRP)
NYSE:MRP
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Millrose Properties Inc Class A
(NYSE:MRP)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▼(-3.32% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong recent financial performance (high profitability and very strong cash generation) and supportive valuation (low P/E and high yield). These positives are partly offset by weak technical momentum (trading below major moving averages with negative MACD) and financial risk flags around the sharp multi-year performance discontinuity and higher leverage, despite generally constructive earnings-call commentary and dividend coverage.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained, very strong operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for dividends, homesite investment and debt reduction. High cash conversion (FCF > net income) supports AFFO coverage and capital recycling, enabling strategic deployment without immediate reliance on equity markets.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
A rapid increase in absolute debt elevates interest-rate and covenant exposure, reducing financial flexibility. Higher leverage amplifies earnings volatility under downturns, limits room for opportunistic investment, and increases the likelihood of future capital raises or constrained payout policy if cash generation softens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained, very strong operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for dividends, homesite investment and debt reduction. High cash conversion (FCF > net income) supports AFFO coverage and capital recycling, enabling strategic deployment without immediate reliance on equity markets.
Read all positive factors
Millrose Properties Inc Class A (MRP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.26B
Dividend Yield6.18%
Average Volume (3M)1.52M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.5
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth761.80%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees11
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Residential
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.79
Shares Outstanding154,228,120
10 Day Avg. Volume2,057,856
30 Day Avg. Volume1,516,801
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)8.26
P/FCF Ratio1.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue9.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.25Price Target Upside13.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)3.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$833.06M
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Millrose Properties is a Homesite Option Purchase Platform (HOPP'R), an evolution of residential land banking, accelerating homebuilders' capital-efficient growth of controlled land positions. As a publicly traded Homesite Option Purchase Platfo...
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized Millrose's recurring, contractual earnings, disciplined deployment and expanding, diversified platform. Management reported growth in invested capital, covered dividend, enhanced unsecured liquidity and operational scale, while noting modest yield compression tied to lower SOFR and industry-wide margin pressure. Near-term demand was described as choppy in March and some regional pockets (notably parts of Texas and select Florida submarkets) require selectivity. Management addressed potential future capital-raising considerations but currently has substantial unsecured capacity and $1.5 billion of liquidity. Overall, the positives (predictable AFFO growth, dividend coverage, diversification, capital structure improvements, and scalable operations) materially outweigh the lowlights (macro variability, margin compression, modest yield decline and targeted market headwinds).Positive Updates
Recurring Earnings and AFFO Growth
First-quarter AFFO of $125.9 million ($0.76 per share), driven by $185 million in option fees and ~$10 million in development loan income. AFFO per day was 2.5% higher versus the prior quarter despite a 90-day quarter versus 92 days previously, demonstrating resilient recurring cash generation.
Negative Updates
Industry Margin Compression
Public homebuilders reported gross margin compression of ~200 to 500 basis points year-over-year, increasing the emphasis on capital efficiency and pressuring builder returns—a structural headwind for the sector that increases demand for Millrose's solution but signals tighter economics for counterparties.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Recurring Earnings and AFFO Growth
First-quarter AFFO of $125.9 million ($0.76 per share), driven by $185 million in option fees and ~$10 million in development loan income. AFFO per day was 2.5% higher versus the prior quarter despite a 90-day quarter versus 92 days previously, demonstrating resilient recurring cash generation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated there is no change to previously issued guidance while highlighting key Q1 metrics that underpin that outlook: net income of $122.9 million ($0.74 per share) and AFFO of $125.9 million ($0.76 per share), with AFFO fully covering the declared quarterly dividend of $0.76 per share (total $126.2 million) and implying an annualized dividend yield of 8.7% on book equity (up ~30 bps); book value per share was $35.26. Operational and balance-sheet capacity to support the guidance includes invested capital of approximately $8.7 billion (up from $8.5B), ~143,000 homesites across 904 communities in 30 states serving 17 counterparties (95% pooled; ~31% outside the Lennar program), total assets of ~$9.6B, invested-capital debt-to-capitalization of ~29% (vs a 33% limit), liquidity of ~$1.5B (including ~$49M cash and $425M revolver drawn), and ~ $1.8B of unsecured capacity after adding a $500M delayed-draw term loan. Management emphasized the economics driving the guidance — other-agreement yields averaging ~10.7% versus a cost of debt near 6% (option-rate floors around 10%; yields down ~30 bps QoQ with SOFR moves but largely offset by lower floating-rate interest) — and reiterated disciplined deployment, capital recycling and expected accretive AFFO growth as the basis for unchanged guidance.Millrose Properties Inc Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 712.69M | 600.46M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 690.73M | 512.71M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | 609.79M | 492.17M | -246.22M | -209.79M | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 462.94M | 379.86M | -246.22M | -209.79M | -144.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.57B | 9.26B | 5.47B | 4.74B | 8.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.28M | 35.05M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 2.43B | 2.11B | 24.19M | 32.61M | 117.46M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.72B | 3.40B | 306.92M | 285.16M | 393.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.85B | 5.86B | 5.16B | 4.46B | 7.63B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.45B | 3.67B | -917.19M | -865.12M | -328.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.45B | 3.67B | -917.19M | -865.12M | -328.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.08B | -5.72B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.59B | 2.08B | 917.19M | 865.12M | 328.64M |
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Risk Analysis
Millrose Properties Inc Class A disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Millrose Properties Inc Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $4.26B | 9.46 | 7.90% | 6.18% | 761.80% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $1.78B | -31.52 | 6.36% | 2.17% | 7.11% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $1.21B | -18.78 | 1.15% | 4.58% | 33.21% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $4.07B | -13,268.21 | 1.40% | 3.88% | 3.28% | 53.31% | |
55 Neutral | $761.17M | -23.50 | -10.30% | 7.06% | -1.46% | 0.65% | |
46 Neutral | $609.95M | -10.01 | 176.90% | 7.42% | -16.20% | 99.72% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
MRP
Millrose Properties Inc Class A
27.63
2.24
8.84%
AIV
Apartment Investment & Management
4.24
0.05
1.24%
VRE
Veris Residential
19.00
4.71
32.99%
CSR
Centerspace
68.24
10.10
17.37%
IRT
Independence Realty
16.86
-0.41
-2.36%
NXRT
NexPoint Residential
29.74
-1.35
-4.34%
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Millrose Shareholders Reelect Board and Ratify Auditor
Positive
May 19, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders on May 18, 2026, Millrose Properties, Inc. shareholders elected five directors—Carlos A. Migoya, Patrick J. Bartels, Kathleen B. Lynch, Matthew B. Gorson, and M. Alison Mincey—to serve until the 20...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Millrose Properties Reports Strong First-Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Millrose Properties reported first‑quarter 2026 results that underscored the strength of its homesite option model, posting net income of $122.9 million, or $0.74 per share, and AFFO of $125.9 million, or $0.76 per share. Tot...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Millrose Expands Unsecured Credit Facility, Enhancing Financial Flexibility
Positive
Mar 27, 2026
Millrose Properties Inc., a real estate investment trust and leading homesite option platform for residential homebuilders, specializes in acquiring and developing land to supply finished homesites on a just-in-time basis, leveraging proprietary t...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Millrose Properties Declares Quarterly Dividend, Affirms Capital Strength
Positive
Mar 23, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Millrose Properties, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.76 per share on its Class A and Class B common stock, totaling approximately $126.2 million. The dividend is scheduled to b...
Business Operations and Strategy
Millrose Properties Provides March 2026 Investor Presentation Update
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
Millrose Properties, Inc. has prepared an investor presentation for use in March 2026 meetings with investors, including appearances at Citi’s 2026 Global Property CEO Conference on March 2, 2026 and the J.P. Morgan Global High Yield Levera...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Millrose Properties Posts Strong Q4 and 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Millrose Properties reported strong results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, with full-year net income of $2.44 per share and AFFO of $2.58 per share, supported by total revenues of $600.5 million and a portfolio yield...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.