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Millrose Properties Inc Class A (MRP)
NYSE:MRP
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Millrose Properties Inc Class A
(NYSE:MRP)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▼(-0.35% Downside)
Action:N/ADate:01/04/26
The score is held back most by weak reported profitability/cash generation and soft technical momentum, partially offset by a strong, low-leverage balance sheet, a supportive dividend yield, and an upbeat earnings call with raised guidance and dividend increases.
Millrose Properties Inc Class A (MRP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.77B
Dividend Yield6.18%
Average Volume (3M)1.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.7
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Residential
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding154,183,690
10 Day Avg. Volume1,249,069
30 Day Avg. Volume1,120,615
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.28
Price to Book (P/B)0.71
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-3.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue103.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit71.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-47.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.00Price Target Upside12.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)3.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$824.89M
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMillrose Properties is a Homesite Option Purchase Platform (HOPP'R), an evolution of residential land banking, accelerating homebuilders' capital-efficient growth of controlled land positions. As a publicly traded Homesite Option Purchase Platform, Millrose provides investors with a unique residential real estate backed income-generating investment opportunity historically limited to institutional investors.
How the Company Makes Money
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance for Millrose in its first public year: significant homesite delivery (31,000+), strong capital recycling ($3.4B), AFFO outperformance (4Q $0.76, normalized $0.77) and a deep, actionable pipeline with clear path to meaningful AFFO growth (management estimates +7% to +10% ACCRETION from planned deployments). Headwinds remain—industry affordability/rate pressures, market-specific softness (Texas, Las Vegas), a current valuation discount and the need to access equity capital above book value to fully fund the longer-term pipeline. Overall, the highlights (operational scale, cash generation, low leverage, explicit growth runway) outweigh the lowlights, leaving management optimistic but selective as it scales into 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Operational Scale and Homesite Deliveries
Managed ~142,000 homesites across 933 communities in 30 states for 15 counterparties; executed over 31,000 homesite closings in 2025 (each requiring full title and closing workflows). Delivered projects with average new-home selling prices ~20% below the national average, supporting affordability.
AFFO and Earnings Outperformance
4Q adjusted FFO of $0.76 per share (top end of guidance $0.74–$0.76) and a normalized year-end run rate of $0.77 per share. Reported full-year net income of $404.8 million ($2.44 per share) and 4Q net income of $122.2 million ($0.74 per share).
Strong Capital Recycling and Transaction Volume
Generated $3.4 billion of net homesite sale proceeds in 2025 and deployed $5.5 billion in new land acquisitions and development funding, demonstrating cash-generative recycling of capital.
Invested Capital Growth and Pipeline
Invested capital outside the Lennar master program finished at ~$2.4 billion, surpassing the prior $2.2 billion stretch target (~+9% above target). Company expects to grow invested capital outside Lennar by an additional $2.0 billion (targeting ~$10.5 billion total invested capital with >40% outside Lennar).
Balance Sheet Strength and Liquidity
Year-end total assets of ~$9.3 billion, total debt of $2.1 billion (debt-to-capitalization ~26%, well inside 33% target), and ~ $1.3 billion in total liquidity to support near-term pipeline.
Dividend and Shareholder Returns
Paid Q4 dividend of $124.5 million ($0.75 per share) representing an 8.4% annualized yield on equity and approximately 80 basis points higher than the first quarter dividend. Management reiterated commitment to distributing 100% of AFFO.
Low Leverage and Conservative Capital Policy
Maintains a conservative leverage target of 33% debt-to-cap (currently ~26%), will not issue equity below book value (book value per share $35.28), and expects to fund roughly half of the next $2 billion growth through existing debt capacity.
Technology, Risk Management, and Partner Adoption
Proprietary technology supports real-time lot selection, title tracking and automated workflows; 96% of portfolio (by investment balance) subject to cross-termination pooling; expanded counterparties from 12 to 15 with majority of funded growth coming from existing partners—signaling strong industry adoption.
Accretive Yield Spread and AFFO Growth Potential
Investments yielding ~11% versus cost of debt ~6.3% drive accretive AFFO. Management guidance: deploying $1.0 billion at current yields could drive >7% AFFO per-share growth; fully executing the $2.0 billion opportunity implies ~10% annual AFFO per-share growth.
Negative Updates
Challenging Homebuilding Macro Backdrop
2025 environment featured affordability headwinds, elevated mortgage rates and macro uncertainty that constrained builder activity; management acknowledged the industry faced meaningful headwinds even as Millrose expanded.
Valuation Discount and Equity Issuance Constraint
Management noted a meaningful AFFO multiple discount versus peers and expects the market to re-rate the company over time. The company will not issue equity below book value ($35.28), which limits immediately available equity capacity to capture the full pipeline unless shares re-rate above book.
Market-Specific Weaknesses
Certain markets require caution: Texas is working through elevated supply and affordability challenges (normalization expected in 2026) and Las Vegas is showing softer sales and rising supply pressure; some secondary coastal Florida markets required recalibration last summer.
Dependence on Continued Access to Capital
Management plans to deploy an additional $1.0 billion of invested capital by midyear and up to $2.0 billion over the full year, but capturing the second half of the pipeline depends on selective capital deployment and the ability to raise equity at acceptable prices—creating execution risk if markets do not re-rate.
Floating-Rate Exposure and Yield Floor Risk
Majority of 'other agreements' are floating-rate subject to floors; while current invested yields are ~11%, floors could compress with rate moves (management cited potential floor impact of 50–200 basis points), which could reduce the spread over cost of capital if rates decline materially.
Concentration and Transition Risk
A foundational relationship (Lennar master program) remains a large part of the business; management is diversifying (target >40% outside Lennar) but until that diversification is complete there is concentration risk and transition execution risk.
Company Guidance
Millrose reiterated clear, metric-driven guidance: Q4 AFFO came in at $0.76 (top of prior $0.74–$0.76 range) with a normalized year‑end run rate of $0.77, and the company expects to grow invested capital outside the Lennar master program by ~$2.0B to total ≈$10.5B (with >40% of that balance outside Lennar); roughly half of that incremental $2.0B (~$1.0B) can be funded via existing debt capacity and is expected to be deployed by mid‑2026, exiting Q2 with a quarterly AFFO run‑rate of $0.78–$0.80. Management maintains a conservative 33% debt‑to‑capital target (year‑end debtto‑cap ~26% with $2.1B debt on ~$9.3B assets and ~$1.3B liquidity), will not issue equity below book value ($35.28/share), and projects that $1.0B deployed at current yields would drive >7% AFFO/share growth while the full $2.0B (prudent debt/equity mix) implies ~10% annual AFFO/share growth; additional relevant metrics disclosed: other‑agreement yields ~11% vs cost of debt 6.3%, 2025 net homesite sale proceeds $3.4B, >31,000 homesites delivered, Q4 dividend $0.75/share (≈8.4% annualized yield), and full‑year net income $404.8M ($2.44/share).Millrose Properties Inc Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall fundamentals are mixed: the income statement and cash flow show sustained, widening losses and deeply negative operating/free cash flow (including periods with zero reported revenue), but the balance sheet is a clear offset with very low leverage and growing equity/assets, providing flexibility despite negative returns.Income Statement
Across 2022–2024, the company reports zero revenue while generating sizable operating losses and net losses (net income of -$144M in 2022, -$210M in 2023, and -$246M in 2024). Losses have widened over time, indicating weakening profitability and limited earnings visibility based on the provided data. A key positive is that the balance sheet appears able to absorb losses for now, but the income profile itself is currently very weak.12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a relative strength: debt is very low versus equity (debt-to-equity of ~0.7% in 2023 and ~0.5% in 2024), suggesting limited leverage risk and financial flexibility. Equity and assets increased from 2023 to 2024 (equity ~$4.46B to ~$5.16B; assets ~$4.74B to ~$5.47B). The main concern is continued negative returns on equity (about -4.7% in both 2023 and 2024), driven by ongoing losses.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is weak: operating cash flow and free cash flow are materially negative in each year provided (operating cash flow of -$329M in 2022, -$865M in 2023, and -$917M in 2024), with cash burn accelerating versus 2022. While free cash flow is shown as moving in a better direction in 2024 versus 2023 based on the provided growth figure, absolute cash flow remains deeply negative, increasing reliance on financing or balance-sheet resources.18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 62.90M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 91.63M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -137.17M | -246.22M | -209.79M | 0.00 |
| Net Income | -191.70M | -246.22M | -209.79M | -144.25M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 9.02B | 5.47B | 4.74B | 8.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 242.58M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 1.98B | 24.19M | 32.61M | 117.46M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.17B | 306.92M | 285.16M | 393.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.86B | 5.16B | 4.46B | 7.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.78B | -917.19M | -865.12M | -328.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -923.89M | -917.19M | -865.12M | -328.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.11B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.27B | 917.19M | 865.12M | 328.64M |
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $1.76B | 23.46 | 5.33% | 2.17% | 3.37% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $4.77B | 23.68 | ― | 6.18% | ― | ― | |
57 Neutral | $1.09B | 60.60 | 4.30% | 4.58% | 36.82% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $4.07B | 69.41 | 1.64% | 3.88% | 0.84% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $736.26M | -23.03 | -12.63% | 7.06% | -4.46% | -206.19% | |
45 Neutral | $803.94M | -5.74 | 171.00% | 7.42% | -4.63% | 42.39% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
MRP
Millrose Properties Inc Class A
31.11
10.15
48.45%
AIV
Apartment Investment & Management
5.80
-0.68
-10.49%
VRE
Veris Residential
18.83
2.16
12.96%
CSR
Centerspace
63.12
0.11
0.17%
IRT
Independence Realty
16.90
-4.31
-20.30%
NXRT
NexPoint Residential
28.74
-11.27
-28.16%
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Millrose Properties Declares Increased Quarterly Cash Dividend
Positive
Dec 22, 2025
On December 22, 2025, Millrose Properties, Inc. announced that its board of directors had declared a quarterly cash dividend of approximately $124.5 million, or $0.75 per share, on its Class A and Class B common stock, payable January 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 5, 2026. The increased dividend caps Millrose’s first year as a public company and signals management’s confidence in the strength of its homesite option platform, its capital‑recycling capabilities, and its role as a key capital provider to major homebuilders, underscoring the company’s positioning as a critical supplier of finished homesites amid ongoing scarcity in the residential land market.
The most recent analyst rating on (MRP) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Millrose Properties Inc Class A stock, see the MRP Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Millrose Properties Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results
Positive
Oct 23, 2025
On October 23, 2025, Millrose Properties announced robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting significant cash proceeds from homesite sales and strategic land acquisitions. The company reported a net income of $105.1 million and increased its guidance for year-end invested capital and adjusted funds from operations. Additionally, Millrose completed $2.0 billion in senior notes offerings, enhancing its balance sheet and liquidity, positioning itself for continued growth and strategic initiatives. The company also declared a quarterly dividend and maintained a conservative leverage profile, reflecting strong investor demand and financial flexibility.
The most recent analyst rating on (MRP) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Millrose Properties Inc Class A stock, see the MRP Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.