Millrose Properties Inc Class A (MRP)
NYSE:MRP
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Millrose Properties Inc Class A
(NYSE:MRP)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(7.95% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/27/26
The score is primarily driven by improving financial performance in 2025 but tempered by the lack of multi-year consistency versus prior periods. Valuation is supportive (moderate P/E and high dividend yield), and the earnings call adds confidence via specific AFFO guidance and a defined growth plan, while technicals remain a notable headwind with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Millrose generated substantial operating and free cash flow in 2025 ($3.67B), enabling 100% AFFO distributions and sizable reinvestment. Durable cash conversion supports capital recycling, dividend sustainability, and funding of disciplined growth initiatives over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Earnings/operating volatility
Results reflect a sharp inflection in 2025 after three years of zero revenue and losses, indicating the current profitability may be driven by structural change or one-time shifts. This raises execution and visibility risk for sustaining 2025 cash flows across multiple years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Millrose generated substantial operating and free cash flow in 2025 ($3.67B), enabling 100% AFFO distributions and sizable reinvestment. Durable cash conversion supports capital recycling, dividend sustainability, and funding of disciplined growth initiatives over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Millrose Properties Inc Class A (MRP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.71B
Dividend Yield6.18%
Average Volume (3M)1.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees11
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Residential
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding154,183,690
10 Day Avg. Volume1,180,572
30 Day Avg. Volume1,356,695
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)8.26
P/FCF Ratio1.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue11.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.88
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.00Price Target Upside14.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)3.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$849.95M
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Millrose Properties is a Homesite Option Purchase Platform (HOPP'R), an evolution of residential land banking, accelerating homebuilders' capital-efficient growth of controlled land positions. As a publicly traded Homesite Option Purchase Platfo...
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance for Millrose in its first public year: significant homesite delivery (31,000+), strong capital recycling ($3.4B), AFFO outperformance (4Q $0.76, normalized $0.77) and a deep, actionable pipeline with clear path to meaningful AFFO growth (management estimates +7% to +10% ACCRETION from planned deployments). Headwinds remain—industry affordability/rate pressures, market-specific softness (Texas, Las Vegas), a current valuation discount and the need to access equity capital above book value to fully fund the longer-term pipeline. Overall, the highlights (operational scale, cash generation, low leverage, explicit growth runway) outweigh the lowlights, leaving management optimistic but selective as it scales into 2026.Positive Updates
Operational Scale and Homesite Deliveries
Managed ~142,000 homesites across 933 communities in 30 states for 15 counterparties; executed over 31,000 homesite closings in 2025 (each requiring full title and closing workflows). Delivered projects with average new-home selling prices ~20% below the national average, supporting affordability.
Negative Updates
Challenging Homebuilding Macro Backdrop
2025 environment featured affordability headwinds, elevated mortgage rates and macro uncertainty that constrained builder activity; management acknowledged the industry faced meaningful headwinds even as Millrose expanded.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational Scale and Homesite Deliveries
Managed ~142,000 homesites across 933 communities in 30 states for 15 counterparties; executed over 31,000 homesite closings in 2025 (each requiring full title and closing workflows). Delivered projects with average new-home selling prices ~20% below the national average, supporting affordability.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Millrose reiterated clear, metric-driven guidance: Q4 AFFO came in at $0.76 (top of prior $0.74–$0.76 range) with a normalized year‑end run rate of $0.77, and the company expects to grow invested capital outside the Lennar master program by ~$2.0B to total ≈$10.5B (with >40% of that balance outside Lennar); roughly half of that incremental $2.0B (~$1.0B) can be funded via existing debt capacity and is expected to be deployed by mid‑2026, exiting Q2 with a quarterly AFFO run‑rate of $0.78–$0.80. Management maintains a conservative 33% debt‑to‑capital target (year‑end debtto‑cap ~26% with $2.1B debt on ~$9.3B assets and ~$1.3B liquidity), will not issue equity below book value ($35.28/share), and projects that $1.0B deployed at current yields would drive >7% AFFO/share growth while the full $2.0B (prudent debt/equity mix) implies ~10% annual AFFO/share growth; additional relevant metrics disclosed: other‑agreement yields ~11% vs cost of debt 6.3%, 2025 net homesite sale proceeds $3.4B, >31,000 homesites delivered, Q4 dividend $0.75/share (≈8.4% annualized yield), and full‑year net income $404.8M ($2.44/share).Millrose Properties Inc Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
61
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 600.46M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 600.46M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | 512.44M | -246.22M | -209.79M | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 379.86M | -246.22M | -209.79M | -144.25M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 9.26B | 5.47B | 4.74B | 8.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 35.05M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 2.11B | 24.19M | 32.61M | 117.46M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.40B | 306.92M | 285.16M | 393.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.86B | 5.16B | 4.46B | 7.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.67B | -917.19M | -865.12M | -328.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.67B | -917.19M | -865.12M | -328.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.72B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.08B | 917.19M | 865.12M | 328.64M |
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Risk Analysis
Millrose Properties Inc Class A disclosed 81 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Millrose Properties Inc Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $4.71B | 13.05 | 6.48% | 6.18% | ― | ― | |
63 Neutral | $1.77B | 18.46 | 6.73% | 2.17% | 3.37% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $3.75B | 72.30 | 1.64% | 3.88% | 0.84% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $1.13B | 63.46 | -4.93% | 4.58% | 36.82% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $653.42M | -23.86 | -12.63% | 7.06% | -4.46% | -206.19% | |
45 Neutral | $586.99M | 0.70 | 299.94% | 7.42% | -4.63% | 42.39% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
MRP
Millrose Properties Inc Class A
30.57
9.20
43.02%
AIV
Apartment Investment & Management
4.08
-0.05
-1.31%
VRE
Veris Residential
18.90
3.96
26.47%
CSR
Centerspace
63.92
8.79
15.93%
IRT
Independence Realty
15.40
-2.58
-14.33%
NXRT
NexPoint Residential
25.61
-7.72
-23.16%
Millrose Properties Inc Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Millrose Expands Unsecured Credit Facility, Enhancing Financial Flexibility
Positive
Mar 27, 2026
Millrose Properties Inc., a real estate investment trust and leading homesite option platform for residential homebuilders, specializes in acquiring and developing land to supply finished homesites on a just-in-time basis, leveraging proprietary t...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Millrose Properties Declares Quarterly Dividend, Affirms Capital Strength
Positive
Mar 23, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Millrose Properties, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.76 per share on its Class A and Class B common stock, totaling approximately $126.2 million. The dividend is scheduled to b...
Business Operations and Strategy
Millrose Properties Provides March 2026 Investor Presentation Update
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
Millrose Properties, Inc. has prepared an investor presentation for use in March 2026 meetings with investors, including appearances at Citi’s 2026 Global Property CEO Conference on March 2, 2026 and the J.P. Morgan Global High Yield Levera...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Millrose Properties Posts Strong Q4 and 2025 Results
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Millrose Properties reported strong results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, with full-year net income of $2.44 per share and AFFO of $2.58 per share, supported by total revenues of $600.5 million and a portfolio yield...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.