MPLX (MPLX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $59.89B
• Dividend Yield: 7.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.85M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 5.19%
• EPS Growth: 11.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,200
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 1.17
• Shares Outstanding: 1,017,065,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,097,998
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,846,646
• PEG Ratio: 0.76
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.60
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.32
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.84
• 1Y Price Target: $57.86
• Price Target Upside: -1.14% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $13.39B

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $63.00 ▲(7.64% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/13/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability and cash-flow durability, supported by an attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield). The earnings outlook and project pipeline add confidence, while the main constraints are leverage/data-consistency uncertainty and only moderate (though positive) technical momentum.

Positive Factors

High margins & profitability

Sustained high margins indicate durable operating leverage in MPLX’s midstream model. A ~38% net margin and ~49% EBITDA margin provide structural cash generation capacity to fund capex, distributions and project rollouts even if top-line growth moderates, supporting long-term returns.

Strong operating cash flow and FCF

Steady OCF and improving free cash flow, with FCF roughly matching net income, reinforce MPLX’s ability to service debt, maintain distributions and fund high‑return projects. Reliable cash conversion is a durable advantage for infrastructure reinvestment and shareholder returns.

Clear high‑return project pipeline

A defined capital plan concentrated on natural gas/NGLs and a portfolio of mid‑teens return projects (Permian, Marcellus, fractionation and export capacity) provide a structural growth runway. When projects ramp, they should drive multi‑year EBITDA and capacity gains.

Negative Factors

Meaningful historical leverage

Historically meaningful leverage limits financial flexibility in higher‑rate or lower‑volume environments. Inconsistent TTM debt reporting adds uncertainty to coverage metrics, complicating assessment of true balance‑sheet resilience when funding multi‑year growth.

Refinancing and interest expense pressure

Higher interest from financing acquisition and growth reduced distributable cash flow and created refinancing needs. The upcoming note maturity and reliance on debt markets raise structural execution risk: refinancing at higher costs would compress coverage and distribution flexibility.

Asset dispositions and near‑term volume headwinds

Sale of non‑core assets trimmed near‑term volumes and created an EBITDA headwind, while processing/fractionation volumes have declined modestly. These structural throughput impacts can slow cash and EBITDA growth until new capacity projects fully ramp in 2026–2028.

MPLX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MPLX LP owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Logistics and Storage, and Gathering and Processing. The company is involved in the gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas; gathering, transportation, fractionation, exchange, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids; gathering, storage, transportation, and distribution of crude oil and refined products, as well as other hydrocarbon-based products; and sale of residue gas and condensate. It also engages in the inland marine businesses comprising transportation of light products, heavy oils, crude oil, renewable fuels, chemicals, and feedstocks in the Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast regions, as well as owns and operates boats and barges, including third-party chartered equipment, and a marine repair facility located on the Ohio River; and distribution of fuel, as well as operates refining logistics, terminals, rail facilities, and storage caverns. In addition, the company operates terminal facilities for the receipt, storage, blending, additization, handling, and redelivery of refined petroleum products located through the pipeline, rail, marine, and over-the-road modes of transportation. MPLX GP LLC acts as the general partner of MPLX LP. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. MPLX LP operates as a subsidiary of Marathon Petroleum Corporation.

How the Company Makes Money

MPLX generates revenue primarily through the transportation and storage of crude oil and natural gas liquids via its extensive pipeline network. The company charges fees for the use of its services, which include gathering, processing, and transporting hydrocarbons. Key revenue streams come from long-term contracts with customers, providing stable cash flow. Additionally, MPLX benefits from its strategic partnerships with major energy companies, including Marathon Petroleum Corporation, which enhances its operational efficiency and market reach. The consistent demand for midstream services and the company's focus on infrastructure expansion further contribute to its earnings.

MPLX Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and cash generation (TTM net margin ~38%, EBITDA margin ~49%, steady operating cash flow and improving free cash flow) support a high score. Offsetting factors are slowing/negative recent revenue growth and balance-sheet uncertainty due to historically meaningful leverage plus inconsistent TTM debt and cash-flow coverage metrics, which reduces confidence.

Income Statement

Profitability is very strong for a midstream business, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin around 38% and EBITDA margin near 49%. Earnings have been consistently high since 2021, rebounding sharply from the 2020 loss, and net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) rose to about $4.9B from $4.3B in 2024. The main weakness is growth: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined (~2.6%) after modest growth in 2024, signaling a slower top-line trajectory even as margins remain resilient.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has been meaningful historically, with debt-to-equity around 1.6x through 2020–2024, which can limit flexibility in a higher-rate or lower-volume environment. Offsetting this, equity and assets have been stable to modestly improving and returns on equity have been strong (roughly 29–35% from 2022 through TTM). Note: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows total debt at $0 and a 0.0 debt-to-equity ratio, which is inconsistent with prior years and may reflect missing/updated classification rather than a true elimination of debt—this uncertainty tempers the balance sheet score.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow has been steady (~$5.4B–$5.9B over 2023–TTM), and free cash flow grew in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (~2.2%) while also expanding versus earlier years. Cash conversion is strong, with free cash flow roughly matching net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (about 1.0x), supporting distribution capacity and debt service. A drawback is data inconsistency in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) where operating-cash-flow coverage is shown as 0.0, which conflicts with prior years (>1.4x) and reduces confidence in that specific indicator.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.82B	10.90B	10.43B	10.54B	9.57B
Gross Profit	5.34B	4.82B	4.56B	4.29B	4.05B
EBITDA	7.29B	6.59B	6.09B	6.06B	5.19B
Net Income	4.91B	4.32B	3.93B	3.94B	3.08B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	43.01B	37.51B	36.53B	35.66B	35.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.14B	1.52B	1.05B	238.00M	13.00M
Total Debt	0.00	21.44B	20.91B	20.30B	19.07B
Total Liabilities	28.48B	23.50B	22.95B	22.15B	22.49B
Stockholders Equity	14.52B	13.78B	13.35B	13.48B	12.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	4.89B	4.46B	4.21B	4.38B
Operating Cash Flow	5.91B	5.95B	5.40B	5.02B	4.91B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.86B	-2.00B	-1.25B	-956.00M	-518.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-435.00M	-3.48B	-3.33B	-3.84B	-4.39B

MPLX Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 58.53
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPLX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.09, above the 50-day MA of 54.37, and above the 200-day MA of 50.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPLX.

MPLX Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MPLX	80 Outperform	$59.89B	12.22	34.70%	7.31%	5.19%	11.09%
OKE	75 Outperform	$52.16B	15.29	17.17%	5.61%	58.76%	13.74%
EPD	70 Outperform	$78.51B	13.67	―	6.72%	-6.46%	-0.87%
KMI	70 Outperform	$72.73B	23.90	9.85%	4.27%	8.54%	7.22%
TRGP	68 Neutral	$49.81B	27.29	65.06%	2.03%	7.79%	33.93%
ET	67 Neutral	$64.68B	15.54	12.75%	8.04%	-4.67%	-8.06%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

MPLX Corporate Events

MPLX Issues New Notes to Support Growth Plans

On February 5, 2026, MPLX LP entered into an underwriting agreement with MPLX GP LLC and a syndicate of underwriters led by Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Barclays Capital Inc., MUFG Securities Americas Inc., and RBC Capital Markets, LLC, as part of a securities offering registered on Form S-3. On February 12, 2026, the partnership executed its Thirty-Sixth and Thirty-Seventh Supplemental Indentures with The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A., as trustee, along with obtaining a legal opinion from Jones Day, steps that formalize and support the issuance of new notes and reflect continued use of the capital markets to fund MPLX’s operations and growth.

These actions indicate MPLX is actively managing its capital structure and securing access to debt financing under its existing shelf registration. For stakeholders, the filings underscore the company’s ongoing reliance on public debt markets to support its midstream infrastructure strategy, which can influence its financial flexibility, interest costs, and future distribution capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPLX) stock is a Hold with a $55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MPLX stock, see the MPLX Stock Forecast page.

MPLX Appoints Maria Khoury to General Partner Board

On December 18, 2025, MPLX GP LLC, the general partner of MPLX LP, elected Maria A. Khoury to its Board of Directors, effective January 19, 2026, maintaining the Board at ten members as she succeeds outgoing director John J. Quaid. Khoury will simultaneously join Marathon Petroleum Corporation as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on the same effective date, serving as a management director on MPLX’s general partner Board without additional Board compensation, a move that further consolidates financial and strategic alignment between MPLX and its controlling parent while affirming standard corporate governance practices through disclosures of no special arrangements, family relationships, or related-party transactions in connection with her appointment.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPLX) stock is a Buy with a $59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MPLX stock, see the MPLX Stock Forecast page.