MPLX (MPLX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $51.37B
• Dividend Yield: 7.62%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.17M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: 4.67%
• EPS Growth: 2.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,200
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 48
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 1.03
• Shares Outstanding: 1,019,065,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,597,112
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,172,554
• PEG Ratio: 1.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.07
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 29.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.95
• 1Y Price Target: $57.50
• Price Target Upside: 14.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $58.00 ▲(15.54% Upside)

MPLX's overall stock score of 81 reflects its strong financial performance, strategic growth initiatives, and attractive valuation. The company's effective cost management and operational efficiency are complemented by strategic acquisitions that enhance growth potential. While technical indicators suggest a stable market position, the high dividend yield and reasonable P/E ratio further bolster the stock's attractiveness. The positive sentiment from the earnings call underscores MPLX's robust financial flexibility and strategic execution.

Positive Factors

Acquisitions

MPLX acquired crude, gas, and water gathering assets in the San Juan Basin, which are expected to generate a mid-teen return.

Earnings

MPLX posted another solid quarter and reiterated its mid-single-digit EBITDA growth target and 12.5% annual distribution growth rate.

Production Growth

MPLX continues to see strong production across its core areas and expects year-over-year volume growth based on latest producer customer conversations.

Negative Factors

Capital Expenditure

MPLX reaffirmed its 2025 growth capex budget of $1.7 billion, indicating no plans to slow spending on projects currently under construction.

Future Spending

MPLX expects its capex run rate for the next couple of years could be similar to 2025, indicating higher spending.

MPLX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MPLX LP owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Logistics and Storage, and Gathering and Processing. The company is involved in the gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas; gathering, transportation, fractionation, exchange, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids; gathering, storage, transportation, and distribution of crude oil and refined products, as well as other hydrocarbon-based products; and sale of residue gas and condensate. It also engages in the inland marine businesses comprising transportation of light products, heavy oils, crude oil, renewable fuels, chemicals, and feedstocks in the Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast regions, as well as owns and operates boats and barges, including third-party chartered equipment, and a marine repair facility located on the Ohio River; and distribution of fuel, as well as operates refining logistics, terminals, rail facilities, and storage caverns. In addition, the company operates terminal facilities for the receipt, storage, blending, additization, handling, and redelivery of refined petroleum products located through the pipeline, rail, marine, and over-the-road modes of transportation. MPLX GP LLC acts as the general partner of MPLX LP. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. MPLX LP operates as a subsidiary of Marathon Petroleum Corporation.

How the Company Makes Money

MPLX generates revenue primarily through fees charged for the transportation and storage of hydrocarbons. The company operates on a fee-based model, which provides a stable and predictable cash flow. Key revenue streams include transportation fees from its extensive pipeline network, storage fees from its terminal operations, and processing fees from natural gas processing facilities. Additionally, MPLX benefits from long-term contracts and partnerships with major oil and gas companies, which help to secure consistent revenue. Factors contributing to its earnings include the demand for energy resources, regulatory environments, and strategic expansions or acquisitions within the midstream sector.

MPLX Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MPLX demonstrates strong financial performance with high profitability, solid returns, and robust cash flow generation. The income statement reflects effective cost management and operational efficiency. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with strong equity returns, and cash flow metrics highlight strong cash generation capabilities.

Income Statement

MPLX demonstrates strong profitability with a consistently high gross profit margin of approximately 44.8% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and net profit margins of around 39.5%. The company also maintains robust EBIT and EBITDA margins of 45.3% and 54.7%, respectively, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency. Revenue growth has been moderate but stable, with a slight decrease in the most recent TTM period. Overall, MPLX's income statement reflects strong profitability and efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

MPLX's balance sheet shows moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 1.66, suggesting a significant reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks in volatile markets. However, the company maintains a solid equity ratio of 35.5%, indicating a stable capital structure. The return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 32.1%, showcasing strong returns for shareholders. While the balance sheet reflects some leverage, the company's equity position and returns are strong.

Cash Flow

MPLX's cash flow statement indicates strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is approximately 1.33, suggesting efficient cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.09, reflecting healthy free cash flow generation relative to net income. Although free cash flow growth has been modest, the overall cash flow position supports the company's financial flexibility and ability to fund operations and investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.74B	11.93B	10.68B	10.54B	9.57B	8.25B
Gross Profit	2.47B	10.37B	4.82B	4.29B	4.05B	3.59B
EBITDA	6.12B	6.57B	6.11B	5.67B	5.00B	4.73B
Net Income	4.33B	4.32B	3.93B	3.94B	3.08B	-687.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	37.84B	37.51B	36.53B	35.66B	35.51B	36.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.39B	1.52B	1.05B	238.00M	13.00M	15.00M
Total Debt	0.00	21.44B	20.91B	20.30B	19.07B	20.68B
Total Liabilities	23.79B	23.50B	22.95B	22.15B	22.49B	22.43B
Stockholders Equity	14.05B	13.78B	13.35B	13.48B	12.78B	13.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.48B	4.89B	4.46B	4.21B	4.38B	3.34B
Operating Cash Flow	6.07B	5.95B	5.40B	5.02B	4.91B	4.52B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.09B	-2.00B	-1.25B	-956.00M	-518.00M	-1.26B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.19B	-3.48B	-3.33B	-3.84B	-4.39B	-3.26B

MPLX Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 50.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPLX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 50.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.27, below the 50-day MA of 50.29, and above the 200-day MA of 48.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.06 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MPLX.

MPLX Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MPLX	81 Outperform	$51.37B	11.96	31.38%	7.62%	4.67%	2.07%
ET	75 Outperform	$59.32B	13.34	13.73%	7.60%	-3.65%	9.69%
TRGP	74 Outperform	$35.53B	23.64	60.30%	2.11%	5.88%	46.35%
KMI	70 Outperform	$59.75B	22.06	8.86%	4.31%	3.95%	11.32%
OKE	69 Neutral	$46.89B	14.52	16.05%	5.54%	47.00%	11.86%
WMB	68 Neutral	$70.69B	29.21	19.64%	3.36%	10.57%	-14.22%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$14.70B	8.63	6.04%	5.56%	4.06%	-72.72%

MPLX Corporate Events

MPLX Appoints New Vice President and Controller

On January 22, 2025, MPLX GP LLC appointed Rebecca L. Iten as Vice President and Controller, effective March 3, 2025, succeeding Kelly D. Wright, who will take on a new role at Marathon Petroleum Corporation. Ms. Iten brings extensive experience from her previous roles and will continue to receive her compensation through MPC, indicating MPLX’s ongoing reliance on MPC for management personnel.