MPLX LP (MPLX)
NYSE:MPLX
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MPLX
(NYSE:MPLX)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$63.00
â–²(12.20% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability and cash-flow durability, supported by an attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield). The earnings outlook and project pipeline add confidence, while the main constraints are leverage/data-consistency uncertainty and only moderate (though positive) technical momentum.
Positive Factors
High margins & profitability
Sustained high margins indicate durable operating leverage in MPLX’s midstream model. A ~38% net margin and ~49% EBITDA margin provide structural cash generation capacity to fund capex, distributions and project rollouts even if top-line growth moderates, supporting long-term returns.
Negative Factors
Meaningful historical leverage
Historically meaningful leverage limits financial flexibility in higher‑rate or lower‑volume environments. Inconsistent TTM debt reporting adds uncertainty to coverage metrics, complicating assessment of true balance‑sheet resilience when funding multi‑year growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High margins & profitability
Sustained high margins indicate durable operating leverage in MPLX’s midstream model. A ~38% net margin and ~49% EBITDA margin provide structural cash generation capacity to fund capex, distributions and project rollouts even if top-line growth moderates, supporting long-term returns.
Read all positive factors
MPLX (MPLX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.00B
Dividend Yield7.31%
Average Volume (3M)1.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth5.19%
EPS Growth11.09%
CountryUS
Employees6,200
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding1,015,204,350
10 Day Avg. Volume1,721,884
30 Day Avg. Volume1,549,130
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.76
Price to Book (P/B)3.80
Price to Sales (P/S)4.60
P/FCF Ratio13.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.75Price Target Upside9.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)4.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.06B
MPLX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MPLX LP owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Logistics and Storage, and Gathering and Processing. The company is involved in the gathering, processing, ...
How the Company Makes Money
MPLX generates revenue primarily through the transportation and storage of crude oil and natural gas liquids via its extensive pipeline network. The company charges fees for the use of its services, which include gathering, processing, and transpo...
MPLX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive outlook driven by multi-year EBITDA growth (6.7% three‑year CAGR), aggressive capital deployment ($5.5B in 2025), a concrete $2.4B 2026 plan, sustained shareholder returns (12.5% distribution increase and $4.4B returned in 2025), and a robust project backlog targeting mid‑teens returns. Near-term headwinds include a 4% decline in distributable cash flow due to higher interest expense, modest YoY declines in processing and fractionation volumes (partly from asset sales), and weather-related temporary volume impacts. Management emphasizes disciplined capital allocation, liquidity ($2.1B cash), leverage and coverage targets, and confidence that 2026 growth will outpace 2025 with further ramp contributions into 2027–2028.Positive Updates
Strong multi-year EBITDA growth
Three-year adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 6.7%, with adjusted EBITDA for 2025 reaching just over $7.0 billion and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion, up 2% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Distributable cash flow decline
Distributable cash flow was $1.4 billion for the quarter, down 4% year-over-year, driven by higher interest expense from incremental debt used to finance acquisitions and growth capital.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong multi-year EBITDA growth
Three-year adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 6.7%, with adjusted EBITDA for 2025 reaching just over $7.0 billion and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion, up 2% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MPLX's guidance centers on a $2.4 billion 2026 capital plan (90% to natural gas & NGL services) after deploying $5.5 billion to those value chains in 2025, with the company expecting 2026 growth to exceed 2025 and supporting mid‑single‑digit EBITDA growth into 2027; 2025 adjusted EBITDA was just over $7.0 billion (three‑year adjusted EBITDA CAGR 6.7%), Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $1.8 billion (+2% YoY) with distributable cash flow of $1.4 billion (-4%), $1.2 billion returned to unitholders in the quarter, and a cash balance of $2.1 billion. Key project metrics include treating >400 MMcf/d of sour gas by 2026, the $320 million Secretariat II 300 MMcf/d plant (online 2028) bringing Delaware processing to ~1.7 Bcf/d, Harmon Creek III 300 MMcf/d (online 2026) moving Northeast processing to 8.1 Bcf/d and fractionation to 800,000 bpd, Bengal incremental capacity online in Q4, Gulf Coast fractionation of 300,000 bpd and a 400,000 bpd LPG export terminal JV (online 2028), and the Eiger Express expansion to 3.7 Bcf/d — projects the company expects to deliver mid‑teens returns. Financial posture: distribution increased 12.5% in 2025 and is expected at a similar level for two more years, coverage modeled above ~1.3x, leverage managed to not exceed ~4.0x, and a $1.5 billion 1.75% note due in March is planned to be refinanced.MPLX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.82B | 10.90B | 10.43B | 10.54B | 9.57B |
| Gross Profit | 5.34B | 4.82B | 4.56B | 4.29B | 4.05B |
| EBITDA | 7.29B | 6.59B | 6.09B | 6.06B | 5.19B |
| Net Income | 4.91B | 4.32B | 3.93B | 3.94B | 3.08B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 43.01B | 37.51B | 36.53B | 35.66B | 35.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.14B | 1.52B | 1.05B | 238.00M | 13.00M |
| Total Debt | 26.16B | 21.44B | 20.91B | 20.30B | 19.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.48B | 23.50B | 22.95B | 22.15B | 22.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.30B | 13.78B | 13.35B | 13.48B | 12.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.10B | 4.89B | 4.46B | 4.21B | 4.38B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.91B | 5.95B | 5.40B | 5.02B | 4.91B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.86B | -2.00B | -1.25B | -956.00M | -518.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -435.00M | -3.48B | -3.33B | -3.84B | -4.39B |
MPLX Technical Analysis
Neutral
56.15
Price Trends
57.21
Negative
55.22
Positive
51.78
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.47
Positive
41.89
Neutral
38.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPLX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 56.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.41, below the 50-day MA of 57.21, and above the 200-day MA of 51.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MPLX.
MPLX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $57.00B | 11.07 | 34.93% | 7.31% | 5.19% | 11.09% | |
75 Outperform | $54.27B | 13.64 | 15.47% | 5.61% | 58.76% | 13.74% | |
73 Outperform | $80.74B | 12.07 | 19.84% | 6.72% | -6.46% | -0.87% | |
72 Outperform | $52.22B | 21.51 | 68.22% | 2.03% | 7.79% | 33.93% | |
70 Outperform | $72.71B | 20.01 | 9.92% | 4.27% | 8.54% | 7.22% | |
67 Neutral | $66.02B | 12.28 | 14.09% | 8.04% | -4.67% | -8.06% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
MPLX
MPLX
56.15
11.61
26.06%
ET
Energy Transfer
19.19
4.06
26.85%
EPD
Enterprise Products Partners
37.35
9.69
35.02%
KMI
Kinder Morgan
32.68
7.30
28.78%
OKE
Oneok
86.21
8.01
10.24%
TRGP
Targa Resources
243.09
83.28
52.12%
MPLX Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MPLX Issues New Notes to Support Growth Plans
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 5, 2026, MPLX LP entered into an underwriting agreement with MPLX GP LLC and a syndicate of underwriters led by Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Barclays Capital Inc., MUFG Securities Americas Inc., and RBC Capital Markets, LLC, as part ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MPLX Appoints Maria Khoury to General Partner Board
Neutral
Dec 18, 2025
On December 18, 2025, MPLX GP LLC, the general partner of MPLX LP, elected Maria A. Khoury to its Board of Directors, effective January 19, 2026, maintaining the Board at ten members as she succeeds outgoing director John J. Quaid. Khoury will sim...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.