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MPLX
(NYSE:MPLX)
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Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$68.00
▲(15.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins and robust free cash flow) and supportive earnings-call outlook focused on on-schedule growth projects and distribution growth commitments. Valuation is also favorable with a modest P/E and high yield. The main constraints are elevated leverage and some near-term operational/hedging and volume headwinds, while technicals remain constructive.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
MPLX generates very strong and recurring operating cash flow with TTM free cash flow near $5.8B and high cash conversion (~0.83). This durable cash generation underpins distribution increases, funds organic growth projects and buybacks, and provides a stable buffer against cyclical revenue swings.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage near ~1.8–1.9x, while typical for midstream, reduces financial flexibility and increases interest‑rate and refinancing sensitivity. In a stressed operating environment this elevated debt profile limits optionality for opportunistic M&A or abrupt capital allocation pivots and raises downside risk to coverage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
MPLX generates very strong and recurring operating cash flow with TTM free cash flow near $5.8B and high cash conversion (~0.83). This durable cash generation underpins distribution increases, funds organic growth projects and buybacks, and provides a stable buffer against cyclical revenue swings.
Read all positive factors
MPLX (MPLX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$59.31B
Dividend Yield7.16%
Average Volume (3M)1.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.6
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth3.18%
EPS Growth6.43%
CountryUS
Employees5,762
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.69
Shares Outstanding1,014,733,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,500,191
30 Day Avg. Volume1,364,006
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.76
Price to Book (P/B)3.80
Price to Sales (P/S)4.60
P/FCF Ratio13.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.50Price Target Upside6.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.79B
MPLX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MPLX LP, incorporated in 2012 and headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, operates as a subsidiary of Marathon Petroleum Corporation, with MPLX GP LLC serving as its general partner. The company is a prominent owner and operator of midstream energy infras...
How the Company Makes Money
MPLX primarily makes money by charging fees under contracts for providing midstream services and access to its infrastructure, with cash flow generally driven by volumes moved/handled and the contractual terms rather than direct exposure to commod...
MPLX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong project execution, significant capacity additions coming online (Secretariat I, Harmon Creek III, Titan expansion), continued capital returns (over $1.1 billion returned, 12.5% distribution increase target) and a clear strategy focused on natural gas and NGL value chains. Near‑term headwinds were highlighted, including a $42 million segment EBITDA decline (partly tied to prior divestitures and one‑time 2025 benefits), a $56 million negative hedge mark‑to‑market in Q1, modest volume declines (pipeline and terminal volumes down 4% YoY, fractionation volumes down 3%) and a ~$13 million weather impact. Management stressed that growth is back‑half weighted in 2026, projects remain on time and on budget, and they expect mid‑single‑digit EBITDA growth for the year. Overall, positive operational momentum and large, on‑track project pipeline outweigh the near‑term financial and seasonal headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Unitholder Returns
Delivered over $1.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 and returned over $1.1 billion to unitholders, demonstrating cash generation and capital return capacity.
Negative Updates
Segment Adjusted EBITDA Decline
One segment reported a $42 million decrease in adjusted EBITDA versus Q1 2025 (2025 included a one‑time $37 million customer agreement benefit), driven by a $45 million impact from a prior divestiture, lower NGL prices and higher operating expenses.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Unitholder Returns
Delivered over $1.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 and returned over $1.1 billion to unitholders, demonstrating cash generation and capital return capacity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MPLX guided to back‑half weighted 2026 EBITDA growth that should exceed 2025 as multiple projects come into service: Secretariat I (200 MMcf/d) is online, Secretariat II (+300 MMcf/d) is expected in H2 2028 (bringing Delaware Basin processing to ~1.7 Bcf/d once complete), Harmon Creek III is on track for Q3 (raising Northeast processing to 8.1 Bcf/d and fractionation to 800,000 b/d, including a second 40,000 b/d de‑eth), Titan treating capacity is expected to exceed 400 MMcf/d in Q4 after treating >150 MMcf/d in Q1 (third AGI well expected Q3), Blackcomb and the BANGL pipeline expansion to 300,000 b/d are targeted later this year, and Gulf Coast fractionation/export facilities remain on time and on budget; the company is deploying 90% of a $2.4 billion organic growth plan toward gas/NGL projects to drive continued mid‑single‑digit growth (historical ~7.5% over 3 years). Financially, MPLX reported over $1.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA and returned over $1.1 billion to unitholders, reaffirmed a 12.5% distribution increase for 2026 and 2027 with coverage targeted at or above 1.3x, expects project‑related expenses to be flat y/y but up ~$50 million sequentially in Q2, flagged a ~$13 million Q1 storm headwind, noted that every $0.05 change in weighted‑average NGL price equals ~ $20 million annual EBITDA impact (80% of that exposure was economically hedged, with a $56 million negative mark‑to‑market in Q1), and repurchased $50 million of units in Q1 versus the prior ~$100 million/quarter cadence.MPLX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.07B | 11.82B | 10.90B | 10.43B | 10.54B | 9.57B |
| Gross Profit | 3.67B | 5.34B | 4.82B | 4.56B | 4.29B | 4.05B |
| EBITDA | 6.75B | 7.29B | 6.59B | 6.09B | 6.06B | 5.19B |
| Net Income | 4.75B | 4.91B | 4.32B | 3.93B | 3.94B | 3.08B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 42.97B | 43.01B | 37.51B | 36.53B | 35.66B | 35.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.03B | 2.14B | 1.52B | 1.05B | 238.00M | 13.00M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 26.16B | 21.44B | 20.91B | 20.30B | 19.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.72B | 28.48B | 23.50B | 22.95B | 22.15B | 22.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.25B | 14.30B | 13.78B | 13.35B | 13.48B | 12.78B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.83B | 4.10B | 4.89B | 4.46B | 4.21B | 4.38B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.98B | 5.91B | 5.95B | 5.40B | 5.02B | 4.91B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.47B | -4.86B | -2.00B | -1.25B | -956.00M | -518.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 710.00M | -435.00M | -3.48B | -3.33B | -3.84B | -4.39B |
MPLX Technical Analysis
Positive
58.65
Price Trends
56.73
Positive
56.09
Positive
54.20
Positive
Market Momentum
0.53
Negative
60.67
Neutral
52.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPLX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.51, above the 50-day MA of 56.73, and above the 200-day MA of 54.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPLX.
MPLX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $59.31B | 12.62 | 33.27% | 7.14% | 3.18% | 6.43% | |
76 Outperform | $82.32B | 13.21 | 20.04% | 5.65% | 7.17% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $71.66B | 20.63 | 11.11% | 3.58% | 12.44% | 27.19% | |
71 Outperform | $58.03B | 27.42 | 73.92% | 1.51% | -1.23% | 80.28% | |
71 Outperform | $70.06B | 15.19 | 13.97% | 6.56% | 12.46% | -10.48% | |
69 Neutral | $57.22B | 16.16 | 15.92% | 4.51% | 41.04% | 9.18% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
MPLX
MPLX
58.91
10.18
20.90%
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20.28
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22.82%
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TRGP
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.