MPLX LP (MPLX)
NYSE:MPLX
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MPLX
(NYSE:MPLX)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$60.00
â–²(7.37% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and cash generation, partially offset by elevated leverage and uneven free-cash-flow growth. Earnings call commentary supports a constructive outlook due to on-schedule growth projects and continued distribution growth commitment, while technical indicators are weaker in the near term and valuation is helped by the high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, high absolute cash generation (TTM OCF ~$6B, FCF ~$5B) gives MPLX durable funding for organic projects, distributions and debt service. Over the medium term this underpins reinvestment capacity and a reliable capital-return policy despite cyclical commodity swings.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.86, ~$26B debt) constrains financial flexibility and heightens interest‑rate and refinancing risk. In prolonged weak commodity or volume periods, high absolute debt can limit discretionary investments and pressure distribution coverage targets.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, high absolute cash generation (TTM OCF ~$6B, FCF ~$5B) gives MPLX durable funding for organic projects, distributions and debt service. Over the medium term this underpins reinvestment capacity and a reliable capital-return policy despite cyclical commodity swings.
Read all positive factors
MPLX (MPLX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$56.44B
Dividend Yield7.31%
Average Volume (3M)2.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.9
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth3.18%
EPS Growth6.43%
CountryUS
Employees6,200
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.63
Shares Outstanding1,014,733,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,146,599
30 Day Avg. Volume2,403,137
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.76
Price to Book (P/B)3.80
Price to Sales (P/S)4.60
P/FCF Ratio13.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.70
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.23Price Target Upside9.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.04B
MPLX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MPLX LP owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Logistics and Storage, and Gathering and Processing. The company is involved in the gathering, processing, ...
How the Company Makes Money
MPLX primarily makes money by charging fees for midstream services under contracts that move, store, process, and handle hydrocarbons. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Gathering and Processing: MPLX earns revenue by gathering raw natural...
MPLX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong project execution, significant capacity additions coming online (Secretariat I, Harmon Creek III, Titan expansion), continued capital returns (over $1.1 billion returned, 12.5% distribution increase target) and a clear strategy focused on natural gas and NGL value chains. Near‑term headwinds were highlighted, including a $42 million segment EBITDA decline (partly tied to prior divestitures and one‑time 2025 benefits), a $56 million negative hedge mark‑to‑market in Q1, modest volume declines (pipeline and terminal volumes down 4% YoY, fractionation volumes down 3%) and a ~$13 million weather impact. Management stressed that growth is back‑half weighted in 2026, projects remain on time and on budget, and they expect mid‑single‑digit EBITDA growth for the year. Overall, positive operational momentum and large, on‑track project pipeline outweigh the near‑term financial and seasonal headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Unitholder Returns
Delivered over $1.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 and returned over $1.1 billion to unitholders, demonstrating cash generation and capital return capacity.
Negative Updates
Segment Adjusted EBITDA Decline
One segment reported a $42 million decrease in adjusted EBITDA versus Q1 2025 (2025 included a one‑time $37 million customer agreement benefit), driven by a $45 million impact from a prior divestiture, lower NGL prices and higher operating expenses.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Unitholder Returns
Delivered over $1.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 and returned over $1.1 billion to unitholders, demonstrating cash generation and capital return capacity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MPLX guided to back‑half weighted 2026 EBITDA growth that should exceed 2025 as multiple projects come into service: Secretariat I (200 MMcf/d) is online, Secretariat II (+300 MMcf/d) is expected in H2 2028 (bringing Delaware Basin processing to ~1.7 Bcf/d once complete), Harmon Creek III is on track for Q3 (raising Northeast processing to 8.1 Bcf/d and fractionation to 800,000 b/d, including a second 40,000 b/d de‑eth), Titan treating capacity is expected to exceed 400 MMcf/d in Q4 after treating >150 MMcf/d in Q1 (third AGI well expected Q3), Blackcomb and the BANGL pipeline expansion to 300,000 b/d are targeted later this year, and Gulf Coast fractionation/export facilities remain on time and on budget; the company is deploying 90% of a $2.4 billion organic growth plan toward gas/NGL projects to drive continued mid‑single‑digit growth (historical ~7.5% over 3 years). Financially, MPLX reported over $1.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA and returned over $1.1 billion to unitholders, reaffirmed a 12.5% distribution increase for 2026 and 2027 with coverage targeted at or above 1.3x, expects project‑related expenses to be flat y/y but up ~$50 million sequentially in Q2, flagged a ~$13 million Q1 storm headwind, noted that every $0.05 change in weighted‑average NGL price equals ~ $20 million annual EBITDA impact (80% of that exposure was economically hedged, with a $56 million negative mark‑to‑market in Q1), and repurchased $50 million of units in Q1 versus the prior ~$100 million/quarter cadence.MPLX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.37B | 11.82B | 10.90B | 10.43B | 10.54B | 9.57B |
| Gross Profit | 6.06B | 5.34B | 4.82B | 4.56B | 4.29B | 4.05B |
| EBITDA | 7.00B | 7.29B | 6.59B | 6.09B | 6.06B | 5.19B |
| Net Income | 4.70B | 4.91B | 4.32B | 3.93B | 3.94B | 3.08B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 42.93B | 43.01B | 37.51B | 36.53B | 35.66B | 35.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.51B | 2.14B | 1.52B | 1.05B | 238.00M | 13.00M |
| Total Debt | 26.13B | 26.16B | 21.44B | 20.91B | 20.30B | 19.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.64B | 28.48B | 23.50B | 22.95B | 22.15B | 22.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.07B | 14.30B | 13.78B | 13.35B | 13.48B | 12.78B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.99B | 4.10B | 4.89B | 4.46B | 4.21B | 4.38B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.01B | 5.91B | 5.95B | 5.40B | 5.02B | 4.91B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.05B | -4.86B | -2.00B | -1.25B | -956.00M | -518.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.76B | -435.00M | -3.48B | -3.33B | -3.84B | -4.39B |
MPLX Technical Analysis
Positive
55.88
Price Trends
55.40
Positive
54.97
Positive
51.92
Positive
Market Momentum
0.19
Negative
60.38
Neutral
86.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPLX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.97, above the 50-day MA of 55.40, and above the 200-day MA of 51.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPLX.
MPLX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $74.53B | 19.11 | 10.69% | 4.27% | 12.38% | 28.17% | |
74 Outperform | $58.01B | 28.10 | 73.92% | 2.03% | -1.23% | 80.28% | |
73 Outperform | $56.44B | 15.91 | 33.27% | 7.31% | 3.18% | 6.43% | |
73 Outperform | $68.86B | 13.25 | 13.97% | 8.04% | 12.46% | -10.48% | |
73 Outperform | $85.39B | 13.95 | 20.04% | 6.72% | -9.49% | 1.01% | |
73 Outperform | $58.35B | 18.41 | 15.92% | 5.61% | 41.04% | 9.18% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
MPLX
MPLX
56.47
9.69
20.70%
ET
Energy Transfer
20.07
3.50
21.14%
EPD
Enterprise Products Partners
39.63
10.32
35.22%
KMI
Kinder Morgan
33.79
7.04
26.31%
OKE
Oneok
94.03
17.13
22.27%
TRGP
Targa Resources
276.75
119.88
76.42%
MPLX Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
MPLX Expands Credit Facility to Enhance Liquidity Flexibility
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 7, 2026, MPLX LP entered into a new $2.5 billion unsecured revolving credit agreement maturing April 7, 2031, replacing its prior $2.0 billion facility dated July 7, 2022. The five-year revolver, led by Wells Fargo as administrative agent...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
MPLX Names New Principal Accounting Officer and Controller
Neutral
Mar 18, 2026
On March 16, 2026, MPLX GP LLC appointed Erin M. Brzezinski as Vice President and Controller of MPLX GP, effective April 1, 2026, making her the partnership’s principal accounting officer and successor to Rebecca L. Iten, who will remain in ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MPLX Issues New Notes to Support Growth Plans
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 5, 2026, MPLX LP entered into an underwriting agreement with MPLX GP LLC and a syndicate of underwriters led by Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Barclays Capital Inc., MUFG Securities Americas Inc., and RBC Capital Markets, LLC, as part ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.