MPLX (MPLX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $56.85B
• Dividend Yield: 7.31%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.24M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 5.19%
• EPS Growth: 11.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,200
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 1.17
• Shares Outstanding: 1,017,065,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,300,599
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,237,884
• PEG Ratio: 1.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.29
• 1Y Price Target: $58.14
• Price Target Upside: 5.10% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 83 Outperform
• Price Target: $64.00 ▲(15.69% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins and improving free cash flow) and attractive valuation (high dividend yield with a reasonable P/E). Technicals are supportive with the price above major moving averages and positive MACD. Earnings call guidance is constructive with a defined growth capital plan and continued distribution growth, tempered by near-term DCF pressure from higher interest expense and refinancing needs.

Positive Factors

High Profitability & Margins

Sustained high gross, net and EBITDA margins indicate durable operational efficiency in midstream services, supporting strong cash conversion. These margins provide resilience through commodity cycles and fund capex, distributions, and project reinvestment over the next several years.

Clear Growth Capital Plan

A defined multi-year capex program focused 90% on natural gas and NGL services and a 6.7% EBITDA CAGR reflect disciplined, value-accretive growth. Backlog projects targeting mid‑teens returns should expand fee-based cash flows and support sustainable EBITDA expansion into 2027–2028.

Aligned Governance & Management Continuity

Board additions and CEO-chair continuity deepen strategic and financial alignment with the controlling parent, improving governance and capital allocation cohesion. This continuity supports efficient execution of large, multi-year projects and consistent unitholder return policies.

Negative Factors

Leverage & Near-Term Refinancing

Material upcoming refinancing and elevated leverage targets increase funding risk and interest sensitivity. If market rates or credit conditions tighten, refinancing costs could rise, pressuring distributable cash flow and limiting financial flexibility over the next 2–3 years.

Distributable Cash Flow Pressure

A year‑over‑year DCF decline driven by incremental interest from acquisition and growth financing signals structural pressure on payout coverage. Persistent higher interest costs could constrain distribution growth and reduce excess cash for buybacks or additional projects.

Volume & Asset Base Contraction

Recent asset sales and modest declines in processing and fractionation volumes reduce fee-bearing throughput and near-term earnings. While strategic, shrinking the asset base can lower utilization headroom and delay the pace at which new projects fully offset lost cash flows.

MPLX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MPLX LP owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Logistics and Storage, and Gathering and Processing. The company is involved in the gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas; gathering, transportation, fractionation, exchange, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids; gathering, storage, transportation, and distribution of crude oil and refined products, as well as other hydrocarbon-based products; and sale of residue gas and condensate. It also engages in the inland marine businesses comprising transportation of light products, heavy oils, crude oil, renewable fuels, chemicals, and feedstocks in the Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast regions, as well as owns and operates boats and barges, including third-party chartered equipment, and a marine repair facility located on the Ohio River; and distribution of fuel, as well as operates refining logistics, terminals, rail facilities, and storage caverns. In addition, the company operates terminal facilities for the receipt, storage, blending, additization, handling, and redelivery of refined petroleum products located through the pipeline, rail, marine, and over-the-road modes of transportation. MPLX GP LLC acts as the general partner of MPLX LP. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. MPLX LP operates as a subsidiary of Marathon Petroleum Corporation.

How the Company Makes Money

MPLX generates revenue primarily through the transportation and storage of crude oil and natural gas liquids via its extensive pipeline network. The company charges fees for the use of its services, which include gathering, processing, and transporting hydrocarbons. Key revenue streams come from long-term contracts with customers, providing stable cash flow. Additionally, MPLX benefits from its strategic partnerships with major energy companies, including Marathon Petroleum Corporation, which enhances its operational efficiency and market reach. The consistent demand for midstream services and the company's focus on infrastructure expansion further contribute to its earnings.

MPLX Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and efficiency (TTM gross margin 49.02%, net margin 39.71%, EBITDA margin 56.89%) and solid cash generation (free cash flow up 17.58%; operating cash flow to net income 1.74). Balance sheet is a mild constraint due to higher leverage (debt-to-equity 1.78), partly offset by strong ROE (34.44%).

Income Statement

MPLX has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 7.47% increase in TTM, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 49.02% and 39.71% respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also impressive at 46.01% and 56.89%, indicating efficient operations. The consistent growth trajectory and high profitability metrics highlight a solid financial performance.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.78, which suggests significant leverage. However, the return on equity is strong at 34.44%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 33.59%, showing a balanced asset structure. While leverage is a concern, the high ROE and stable asset management are positive indicators.

Cash Flow

MPLX's cash flow performance is commendable with a 17.58% growth in free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.74, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.95, reflecting strong cash generation relative to earnings. The positive cash flow growth and coverage ratios suggest healthy liquidity and operational efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.13B	10.90B	10.43B	10.54B	9.57B	8.40B
Gross Profit	5.95B	4.82B	4.56B	4.29B	4.05B	3.75B
EBITDA	7.15B	6.59B	6.09B	6.06B	5.19B	1.53B
Net Income	4.82B	4.32B	3.93B	3.94B	3.08B	-720.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	43.23B	37.51B	36.53B	35.66B	35.51B	36.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.80B	1.52B	1.05B	238.00M	13.00M	15.00M
Total Debt	26.09B	21.44B	20.91B	20.30B	19.07B	20.68B
Total Liabilities	28.70B	23.50B	22.95B	22.15B	22.49B	22.43B
Stockholders Equity	14.30B	13.78B	13.35B	13.48B	12.78B	13.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.78B	4.89B	4.46B	4.21B	4.38B	3.34B
Operating Cash Flow	6.09B	5.95B	5.40B	5.02B	4.91B	4.52B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.28B	-2.00B	-1.25B	-956.00M	-518.00M	-1.26B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.23B	-3.48B	-3.33B	-3.84B	-4.39B	-3.26B

MPLX Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 55.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPLX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.78, above the 50-day MA of 54.45, and above the 200-day MA of 50.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPLX.

MPLX Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MPLX	83 Outperform	$56.85B	11.85	34.35%	7.31%	5.19%	11.09%
OKE	82 Outperform	$49.83B	14.56	17.14%	5.61%	58.76%	13.74%
KMI	78 Outperform	$67.83B	22.18	9.87%	4.27%	8.54%	7.22%
EPD	75 Outperform	$71.80B	12.56	19.98%	6.72%	-6.46%	-0.87%
TRGP	74 Outperform	$43.14B	27.02	61.18%	2.03%	7.79%	33.93%
ET	73 Outperform	$63.35B	14.77	13.09%	8.04%	-4.67%	-8.06%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

MPLX Corporate Events

MPLX Appoints Maria Khoury to General Partner Board

On December 18, 2025, MPLX GP LLC, the general partner of MPLX LP, elected Maria A. Khoury to its Board of Directors, effective January 19, 2026, maintaining the Board at ten members as she succeeds outgoing director John J. Quaid. Khoury will simultaneously join Marathon Petroleum Corporation as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on the same effective date, serving as a management director on MPLX’s general partner Board without additional Board compensation, a move that further consolidates financial and strategic alignment between MPLX and its controlling parent while affirming standard corporate governance practices through disclosures of no special arrangements, family relationships, or related-party transactions in connection with her appointment.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPLX) stock is a Buy with a $59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MPLX stock, see the MPLX Stock Forecast page.

MPLX Announces New Chairman Amid Strategic Transition

On October 29, 2025, MPLX GP LLC’s board elected Maryann T. Mannen as Chairman of the Board, effective January 1, 2026, succeeding Michael J. Hennigan who will retire. This leadership change, announced on November 4, 2025, signifies a strategic transition for MPLX, with Mannen continuing her role as CEO while also assuming the chairman position, potentially impacting the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPLX) stock is a Buy with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MPLX stock, see the MPLX Stock Forecast page.