MPLX LP (MPLX)
NYSE:MPLX
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MPLX
(NYSE:MPLX)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$64.00
▲(14.53% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/14/26
The score is driven mainly by strong financial performance (high margins and solid cash flow) and attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield). These positives are tempered by weaker near-term technical momentum and some earnings-call risks tied to interest expense/financing needs despite generally upbeat growth guidance.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation & margins
MPLX generates very strong, repeatable operating cash flow and high midstream margins which support distributions and capital reinvestment. Free cash flow roughly matches net income (≈1.0x) and operating cash has been steady, underpinning durable ability to fund growth and service debt.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage & reporting inconsistency
MPLX has run meaningful leverage historically, which constrains financial flexibility in higher‑rate environments. Inconsistent TTM debt reporting reduces confidence in metrics and obscures true leverage risk, complicating assessment of covenant headroom and refinancing capacity.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation & margins
MPLX generates very strong, repeatable operating cash flow and high midstream margins which support distributions and capital reinvestment. Free cash flow roughly matches net income (≈1.0x) and operating cash has been steady, underpinning durable ability to fund growth and service debt.
Read all positive factors
MPLX (MPLX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$57.13B
Dividend Yield7.31%
Average Volume (3M)1.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth6.16%
EPS Growth14.35%
CountryUS
Employees6,200
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding1,015,204,350
10 Day Avg. Volume2,071,984
30 Day Avg. Volume1,756,897
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.76
Price to Book (P/B)3.80
Price to Sales (P/S)4.60
P/FCF Ratio13.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.41
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.98
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.67Price Target Upside10.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.02B
MPLX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MPLX LP owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Logistics and Storage, and Gathering and Processing. The company is involved in the gathering, processing, ...
How the Company Makes Money
MPLX primarily makes money by charging fees for midstream services under contracts that move, store, process, and handle hydrocarbons. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Gathering and Processing: MPLX earns revenue by gathering raw natural...
MPLX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive outlook driven by multi-year EBITDA growth (6.7% three‑year CAGR), aggressive capital deployment ($5.5B in 2025), a concrete $2.4B 2026 plan, sustained shareholder returns (12.5% distribution increase and $4.4B returned in 2025), and a robust project backlog targeting mid‑teens returns. Near-term headwinds include a 4% decline in distributable cash flow due to higher interest expense, modest YoY declines in processing and fractionation volumes (partly from asset sales), and weather-related temporary volume impacts. Management emphasizes disciplined capital allocation, liquidity ($2.1B cash), leverage and coverage targets, and confidence that 2026 growth will outpace 2025 with further ramp contributions into 2027–2028.Positive Updates
Strong multi-year EBITDA growth
Three-year adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 6.7%, with adjusted EBITDA for 2025 reaching just over $7.0 billion and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion, up 2% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Distributable cash flow decline
Distributable cash flow was $1.4 billion for the quarter, down 4% year-over-year, driven by higher interest expense from incremental debt used to finance acquisitions and growth capital.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong multi-year EBITDA growth
Three-year adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 6.7%, with adjusted EBITDA for 2025 reaching just over $7.0 billion and fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion, up 2% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MPLX's guidance centers on a $2.4 billion 2026 capital plan (90% to natural gas & NGL services) after deploying $5.5 billion to those value chains in 2025, with the company expecting 2026 growth to exceed 2025 and supporting mid‑single‑digit EBITDA growth into 2027; 2025 adjusted EBITDA was just over $7.0 billion (three‑year adjusted EBITDA CAGR 6.7%), Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $1.8 billion (+2% YoY) with distributable cash flow of $1.4 billion (-4%), $1.2 billion returned to unitholders in the quarter, and a cash balance of $2.1 billion. Key project metrics include treating >400 MMcf/d of sour gas by 2026, the $320 million Secretariat II 300 MMcf/d plant (online 2028) bringing Delaware processing to ~1.7 Bcf/d, Harmon Creek III 300 MMcf/d (online 2026) moving Northeast processing to 8.1 Bcf/d and fractionation to 800,000 bpd, Bengal incremental capacity online in Q4, Gulf Coast fractionation of 300,000 bpd and a 400,000 bpd LPG export terminal JV (online 2028), and the Eiger Express expansion to 3.7 Bcf/d — projects the company expects to deliver mid‑teens returns. Financial posture: distribution increased 12.5% in 2025 and is expected at a similar level for two more years, coverage modeled above ~1.3x, leverage managed to not exceed ~4.0x, and a $1.5 billion 1.75% note due in March is planned to be refinanced.MPLX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.82B | 10.90B | 10.43B | 10.54B | 9.57B |
| Gross Profit | 5.34B | 4.82B | 4.56B | 4.29B | 4.05B |
| EBITDA | 7.29B | 6.59B | 6.09B | 6.06B | 5.19B |
| Net Income | 4.91B | 4.32B | 3.93B | 3.94B | 3.08B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 43.01B | 37.51B | 36.53B | 35.66B | 35.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.14B | 1.52B | 1.05B | 238.00M | 13.00M |
| Total Debt | 26.16B | 21.44B | 20.91B | 20.30B | 19.07B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.48B | 23.50B | 22.95B | 22.15B | 22.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.30B | 13.78B | 13.35B | 13.48B | 12.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.10B | 4.89B | 4.46B | 4.21B | 4.38B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.91B | 5.95B | 5.40B | 5.02B | 4.91B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.86B | -2.00B | -1.25B | -956.00M | -518.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -435.00M | -3.48B | -3.33B | -3.84B | -4.39B |
MPLX Technical Analysis
Positive
55.88
Price Trends
57.29
Negative
55.39
Positive
51.96
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.62
Positive
44.32
Neutral
42.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPLX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.73, below the 50-day MA of 57.29, and above the 200-day MA of 51.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPLX.
MPLX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $57.13B | 11.07 | 34.93% | 7.31% | 6.16% | 14.35% | |
74 Outperform | $83.66B | 13.95 | 19.84% | 6.72% | -9.57% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $73.13B | 19.11 | 10.69% | 4.27% | 12.38% | 28.17% | |
72 Outperform | $58.25B | 18.41 | 15.47% | 5.61% | 41.04% | 9.18% | |
72 Outperform | $55.87B | 21.51 | 68.22% | 2.03% | 3.38% | 47.83% | |
67 Neutral | $69.46B | 12.28 | 14.09% | 8.04% | 3.47% | -6.10% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
MPLX
MPLX
56.61
8.67
18.07%
ET
Energy Transfer
19.94
4.50
29.12%
EPD
Enterprise Products Partners
38.03
9.50
33.29%
KMI
Kinder Morgan
32.53
6.53
25.11%
OKE
Oneok
90.36
11.95
15.24%
TRGP
Targa Resources
254.28
96.03
60.68%
MPLX Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
MPLX Expands Credit Facility to Enhance Liquidity Flexibility
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 7, 2026, MPLX LP entered into a new $2.5 billion unsecured revolving credit agreement maturing April 7, 2031, replacing its prior $2.0 billion facility dated July 7, 2022. The five-year revolver, led by Wells Fargo as administrative agent...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
MPLX Names New Principal Accounting Officer and Controller
Neutral
Mar 18, 2026
On March 16, 2026, MPLX GP LLC appointed Erin M. Brzezinski as Vice President and Controller of MPLX GP, effective April 1, 2026, making her the partnership’s principal accounting officer and successor to Rebecca L. Iten, who will remain in ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
MPLX Issues New Notes to Support Growth Plans
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 5, 2026, MPLX LP entered into an underwriting agreement with MPLX GP LLC and a syndicate of underwriters led by Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Barclays Capital Inc., MUFG Securities Americas Inc., and RBC Capital Markets, LLC, as part ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.