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Kinder Morgan (KMI)
NYSE:KMI
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Kinder Morgan (KMI) AI Stock Analysis

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KMI

Kinder Morgan

(NYSE:KMI)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$29.00
â–²(8.09% Upside)
Kinder Morgan's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and a positive earnings call outlook, despite technical indicators suggesting caution. The company's strategic investments and attractive dividend yield support its resilience, though modest revenue growth and declining free cash flow pose challenges.
Positive Factors
Backlog and Project Development
The company increased its backlog by $1.3B, reflecting strong project development and future revenue potential.
Financial Performance
KMI reiterates its FY25 EBITDA guidance should exceed annual budgeted levels, highlighting strong financial performance expectations.
Regulatory Environment
A streamlined federal process could reduce the permitting to construction time by 5 months, accelerating project timelines.
Negative Factors
Growth Comparison
Growth should inflect in 2027, making 2026 EBITDA growth less competitive relative to peers.
Regulatory Challenges
The changing tariff landscape has created challenges for shippers on the Copper State Connector project due to complex agreements.
Tax and Financial Outlook
The company now expects to not be a significant taxpayer in 2026 or 2027 due to accelerated depreciation in the recent US tax bill.

Kinder Morgan (KMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kinder Morgan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKinder Morgan, Inc. operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America. The company operates through four segments: Natural Gas Pipelines, Products Pipelines, Terminals, and CO2. The Natural Gas Pipelines segment owns and operates interstate and intrastate natural gas pipeline, and underground storage systems; natural gas gathering systems and natural gas processing and treating facilities; natural gas liquids fractionation facilities and transportation systems; and liquefied natural gas liquefaction and storage facilities. The Products Pipelines segment owns and operates refined petroleum products, and crude oil and condensate pipelines; and associated product terminals and petroleum pipeline transmix facilities. The Terminals segment owns and/or operates liquids and bulk terminals that stores and handles various commodities, including gasoline, diesel fuel, chemicals, ethanol, metals, and petroleum coke; and owns tankers. The CO2 segment produces, transports, and markets CO2 to recovery and production crude oil from mature oil fields; owns interests in/or operates oil fields and gasoline processing plants; and operates a crude oil pipeline system in West Texas, as well as owns and operates RNG and LNG facilities. It owns and operates approximately 83,000 miles of pipelines and 143 terminals. The company was formerly known as Kinder Morgan Holdco LLC and changed its name to Kinder Morgan, Inc. in February 2011. Kinder Morgan, Inc. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyKinder Morgan generates revenue primarily through its fee-based business model, which comprises several key revenue streams. The Natural Gas Pipelines segment is the largest contributor, earning money by charging customers for the transportation of natural gas through its extensive pipeline network. The CO2 segment generates revenue through the sale of carbon dioxide used for enhanced oil recovery. The Terminals segment earns income by providing storage and handling services for various liquid and dry products. Additionally, the Products Pipelines segment contributes revenue through the transportation of refined products. Kinder Morgan also benefits from long-term contracts with customers, which provide stable cash flows. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other companies in the energy sector further enhance its earnings potential.

Kinder Morgan Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Average Net Oil Production
Average Net Oil Production
Measures the average amount of oil produced, reflecting operational efficiency and the company's capacity to meet market demand.
Chart InsightsKinder Morgan's average net oil production has been on a declining trend since 2019, with a notable drop post-2023. This suggests potential operational challenges or strategic shifts away from oil production. The absence of recent earnings call insights leaves the reasons for this decline unclear, but investors should monitor for any strategic pivots or external factors impacting production levels. The slight uptick in late 2024 might indicate stabilization efforts, though the overall downward trajectory remains a concern.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Kinder Morgan Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 16, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a largely positive outlook for Kinder Morgan, with strong financial performance, a growing project backlog, and favorable market conditions for LNG demand. However, challenges such as decreased natural gas gathering volumes and tariff impacts on project costs were noted.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Adjusted EBITDA increased by 6% and adjusted EPS increased by 12% compared to Q2 2024. Net income attributable to KMI was $715 million, 24% above Q2 2024.
Increased Project Backlog
Project backlog increased from $8.8 billion to $9.3 billion. Added $1.3 billion in new projects, including Trident Phase 2 and the Louisiana Line Texas Access project.
Positive Outlook for LNG Demand
Global gas demand expected to increase by 25% over the next 25 years, with U.S. exports playing a critical role. LNG feed gas demand in America expected to more than double by 2030.
Dividend Growth
Declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2925 per share, up 2% from 2024.
Credit Rating Improvement
Moody's placed KMI's credit rating on positive outlook, joining S&P.
Negative Updates
Natural Gas Gathering Volumes Decrease
Natural gas gathering volumes were down 6% in Q2 2024, with a full-year expectation to be 3% above 2024 but 3% below the 2025 budget.
Tariff Impact on Project Costs
Tariffs are expected to impact project costs by roughly 1%, although this has not changed from previous estimates.
CO2 Segment Challenges
The CO2 segment experienced lower oil production volumes, down 3% in the quarter versus Q2 2024. Oil volumes are forecasted to be 4% below 2024.
Company Guidance
In the recent quarterly earnings call, Kinder Morgan provided detailed guidance on its financial and operational performance. The company reported a 6% increase in adjusted EBITDA and a 12% rise in adjusted EPS compared to the second quarter of 2024. Looking ahead, Kinder Morgan expects to exceed its original budget for the year, driven by the Outrigger acquisition and strong market fundamentals, with U.S. natural gas demand projected to grow by 20% by 2030 according to WoodMac estimates. The company also highlighted its robust project backlog, which increased from $8.8 billion to $9.3 billion, with the addition of $1.3 billion in new projects and approximately $750 million of projects placed in service. Significant new projects include Trident Phase 2 and the Louisiana Line Texas Access project, which are supported by long-term contracts. Additionally, Kinder Morgan anticipates substantial cash tax benefits in 2026 and 2027 due to recent tax reforms, while its balance sheet remains strong with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio expected to round up to 3.9x by the end of the year.

Kinder Morgan Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kinder Morgan demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and efficient operations. The company has a strong gross profit margin and robust EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, challenges include modest revenue growth and a decline in free cash flow, which may impact long-term strategic initiatives.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Kinder Morgan shows a strong gross profit margin of approximately 49.1% TTM, indicating efficient control over production costs. The net profit margin stands at around 17.1% TTM, reflecting healthy profitability. Revenue has shown modest growth, with a 5.75% increase from the previous year. EBIT and EBITDA margins TTM are robust at about 27.7% and 44.6%, respectively, indicating solid operational performance. However, the revenue growth rate is relatively low, which may pose challenges in the competitive market.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 1.06, suggesting a moderate level of leverage, which is typical in the industry but could pose risks in adverse conditions. Return on equity is strong at about 8.86% TTM, indicating effective management of shareholder investments. The equity ratio stands at around 42.5%, showing a stable capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a balanced approach to leveraging with potential for improved financial stability.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Operating cash flow covers net income well, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.04 TTM, indicating strong cash generation ability. Free cash flow shows a decline of 11.2% from the previous year, which could impact future investment capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.98, suggesting a good capacity to support dividends and debt repayment. Overall, the cash flow situation is stable, but the decline in free cash flow growth rate warrants attention.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue15.94B15.07B15.16B19.55B17.53B11.48B
Gross Profit5.71B5.53B5.13B5.50B6.37B4.28B
EBITDA7.72B7.63B7.25B7.03B5.85B4.41B
Net Income2.72B2.61B2.39B2.55B1.78B119.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets72.37B71.41B71.02B70.08B70.42B71.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments82.00M88.00M83.00M745.00M1.14B1.18B
Total Debt32.55B31.67B31.89B31.57B33.21B34.58B
Total Liabilities40.29B39.54B39.29B37.96B38.49B39.41B
Stockholders Equity30.77B30.53B30.31B30.74B30.82B31.44B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.72B3.01B4.15B3.35B4.43B2.84B
Operating Cash Flow5.57B5.63B6.49B4.97B5.71B4.55B
Investing Cash Flow-3.50B-2.63B-4.17B-2.17B-2.31B-911.00M
Financing Cash Flow-2.00B-2.89B-3.01B-3.15B-3.46B-2.64B

Kinder Morgan Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price26.83
Price Trends
50DMA
27.39
Negative
100DMA
27.11
Negative
200DMA
26.97
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.22
Negative
RSI
47.92
Neutral
STOCH
60.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KMI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 26.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.97, below the 50-day MA of 27.39, and below the 200-day MA of 26.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KMI.

Kinder Morgan Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$68.60B11.8420.43%6.77%-0.55%2.14%
75
Outperform
$60.38B13.5213.73%7.43%-3.65%9.69%
75
Outperform
$51.74B11.9431.38%7.65%4.67%2.07%
73
Outperform
$46.87B14.5116.05%5.43%47.00%11.86%
70
Outperform
$59.15B21.738.86%4.32%3.95%11.32%
68
Neutral
$69.77B28.6719.64%3.39%10.57%-14.22%
65
Neutral
$15.26B7.313.02%5.32%4.27%-62.52%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KMI
Kinder Morgan
26.83
6.41
31.39%
ET
Energy Transfer
17.57
2.80
18.96%
EPD
Enterprise Products Partners
31.62
4.46
16.42%
OKE
Oneok
75.08
-9.16
-10.87%
WMB
Williams Co
57.49
14.17
32.71%
MPLX
MPLX
50.04
11.09
28.47%

Kinder Morgan Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Kinder Morgan to Attend Citi Natural Resources Conference
Neutral
Aug 7, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Kinder Morgan announced its participation in the Citi 2025 Natural Resources Conference scheduled for August 12-13, 2025. This participation is aimed at discussing the company’s business and affairs, with materials to be made available on their website prior to the event, highlighting its proactive engagement with stakeholders and potential impact on its market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (KMI) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kinder Morgan stock, see the KMI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Kinder Morgan to Attend Barclays Infrastructure Conference
Neutral
Jun 13, 2025

On June 12, 2025, Kinder Morgan, Inc. announced its participation in the Barclays Global Infrastructure Conference scheduled for June 17, 2025. This engagement is aimed at discussing the company’s business operations and affairs, potentially impacting its industry positioning and providing insights to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (KMI) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kinder Morgan stock, see the KMI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kinder Morgan Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 20, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Kinder Morgan, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 1,942,512,111 shares were represented, forming a quorum. During the meeting, stockholders elected eleven directors to the board, ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and conducted an advisory vote on executive compensation.

The most recent analyst rating on (KMI) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kinder Morgan stock, see the KMI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2025