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Kinder Morgan (KMI)
NYSE:KMI

Kinder Morgan (KMI) AI Stock Analysis

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KM

Kinder Morgan

(NYSE:KMI)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:―
Kinder Morgan's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, such as record demand and project backlog growth. Technical analysis presents a neutral outlook with no clear trend direction. Valuation is fair with a balance between a higher P/E ratio and strong dividend yield. Continued focus on operational efficiency and debt management will be key to sustaining growth.
Positive Factors
LNG Export Capacity
KMI touches 45% of LNG exports and views its potential to blend down nitrogen as an advantage.
Regulatory Climate
The administration is pursuing smoother regulatory processes for pipelines across many fronts, which could shorten the FERC review process by a year or more.
Negative Factors
Geographical Challenges
KMI remains cautious on committing capital for projects in areas without strong state and local support, such as the Northeast.
Permitting Risks
Building a greenfield gas pipeline through Democratic/swing states (NM & AZ) is significantly more challenging than building through Texas.

Kinder Morgan (KMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kinder Morgan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKinder Morgan, Inc. operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America. The company operates through four segments: Natural Gas Pipelines, Products Pipelines, Terminals, and CO2. The Natural Gas Pipelines segment owns and operates interstate and intrastate natural gas pipeline, and underground storage systems; natural gas gathering systems and natural gas processing and treating facilities; natural gas liquids fractionation facilities and transportation systems; and liquefied natural gas liquefaction and storage facilities. The Products Pipelines segment owns and operates refined petroleum products, and crude oil and condensate pipelines; and associated product terminals and petroleum pipeline transmix facilities. The Terminals segment owns and/or operates liquids and bulk terminals that stores and handles various commodities, including gasoline, diesel fuel, chemicals, ethanol, metals, and petroleum coke; and owns tankers. The CO2 segment produces, transports, and markets CO2 to recovery and production crude oil from mature oil fields; owns interests in/or operates oil fields and gasoline processing plants; and operates a crude oil pipeline system in West Texas, as well as owns and operates RNG and LNG facilities. It owns and operates approximately 83,000 miles of pipelines and 143 terminals. The company was formerly known as Kinder Morgan Holdco LLC and changed its name to Kinder Morgan, Inc. in February 2011. Kinder Morgan, Inc. was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyKinder Morgan primarily generates revenue through the fees it charges for transporting and storing energy products. The company's extensive network of pipelines and terminals allows it to charge transportation fees to energy producers for moving natural gas, oil, and refined products from production sites to refineries, distribution centers, and end consumers. Additionally, Kinder Morgan earns money from storage fees by providing storage capacity for energy products at its terminals. The company also engages in long-term contracts and take-or-pay agreements, which provide stable and predictable revenue streams. Key revenue streams include transportation fees from natural gas pipelines, refined petroleum pipelines, and CO2 transport, as well as terminal fees for storage and handling. Significant partnerships with energy producers and utility companies further enhance Kinder Morgan's revenue generation by ensuring a steady demand for its infrastructure services.

Kinder Morgan Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Average Net Oil Production
Average Net Oil Production
Measures the average amount of oil produced, reflecting operational efficiency and the company's capacity to meet market demand.
Chart InsightsKinder Morgan's average net oil production has been on a declining trend since 2019, with a slight stabilization in recent quarters. Despite this, the company is strategically shifting focus towards natural gas, as highlighted in their latest earnings call. Record natural gas demand and significant project backlog growth indicate a pivot to capitalize on LNG and power demand, potentially offsetting the declining oil production. This strategic realignment could enhance long-term growth prospects, especially given the resilience of their revenue model with minimal exposure to commodity price fluctuations.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Kinder Morgan Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 16, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 3.41%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Kinder Morgan's earnings call reveals a strong quarter with record natural gas demand and a significant increase in project backlog, driven by LNG export growth and high utilization in terminals. However, challenges like declining gathering volumes, tariff impacts, and a slight decline in net income present some concerns. Overall, the positive highlights outweigh the lowlights.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Natural Gas Demand
In Q1, Kinder Morgan saw record natural gas demand with an increase of 6.8 Bcf a day, driven by a 10% increase in residential and commercial demand and a 15% increase in LNG demand.
Significant Backlog Growth
The project backlog increased to $8.8 billion, with $900 million added this quarter, primarily focused on serving power demand. The largest project, Bridge, is a $430 million extension of the Elba Express pipeline.
Strong Financial Performance
Kinder Morgan expects to exceed budget for the year, reflecting strong natural gas performance versus budget and the contribution from the Outrigger acquisition.
Positive LNG Export Outlook
Despite geopolitical concerns, U.S. LNG export demand remains strong, with feedgas demand setting records and expansion plans continuing, driven by long-term contracts.
High Capacity Utilization in Terminals Segment
Liquids lease capacity remains high at 94%, and the Jones Act tanker fleet is fully leased, with 97% leased through 2025.
Negative Updates
Volatility in Gathering Volumes
Natural gas gathering volumes were down 6% in Q1 compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to lower Haynesville production.
Impact of Tariffs and Commodity Prices
The uncertainty of tariffs and commodity prices led to a more conservative outlook for the year. The impact of tariffs on new large projects is estimated to be roughly 1% of project costs.
Decline in Net Income
Net income attributable to KMI was $717 million, down 4% from the first quarter of last year, primarily due to unfavorable mark-to-market on hedges.
Company Guidance
During the quarterly earnings conference call held on April 16, 2025, Kinder Morgan provided guidance for the upcoming fiscal year and beyond, focusing on the substantial growth in demand for natural gas. The company reported a record natural gas market demand increase of 6.8 Bcf per day in Q1 2025, driven by a 10% rise in residential and commercial demand and a 15% increase in LNG demand. The company added approximately $900 million to its project backlog, now totaling $8.8 billion, with over 70% aimed at serving power demand. Notably, the largest project in this addition is a $430 million extension of the Elba Express pipeline. Kinder Morgan expects to exceed its 2025 budget by at least the contribution from its recent Outrigger acquisition, projecting adjusted EBITDA growth to 5%, adjusted EPS growth of 10%, and an end-of-year leverage ratio of 3.8 times. The company also highlighted its resilience, with two-thirds of its EBITDA generated from take-or-pay contracts, 30% from fee-based or hedged contracts, and minimal exposure to commodity price fluctuations.

Kinder Morgan Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kinder Morgan's financial performance is robust with a strong income statement, effective cost management, and solid profitability. Balance sheet stability is evident despite higher leverage, and cash flow generation is strong, supporting operational strategies. However, the slight decline in EBIT margin and high debt-to-equity ratio present potential challenges.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Kinder Morgan's income statement shows a strong performance with a consistent gross profit margin around 63% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is stable at approximately 17% for TTM, reflecting solid profitability. Revenue growth is moderate at 2.8% from 2024 to TTM, with EBITDA margin at 31.7% for TTM, showcasing a robust earnings capacity. However, the slight decline in EBIT margin from 2024 to TTM suggests potential challenges in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a strong equity position with an equity ratio of around 42.3% for TTM, indicating financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 1.07, suggesting significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed properly. Return on equity is healthy at approximately 8.6% for TTM, showing effective use of equity capital.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis indicates a stable free cash flow with a slight decrease of 8.1% from 2024 to TTM, highlighting effective cash management despite challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains robust at around 2.1 for TTM, suggesting strong cash generation relative to reported earnings. Free cash flow to net income ratio is approximately 1.05 for TTM, indicating sufficient cash flow to cover earnings.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
15.52B15.10B15.16B19.20B16.61B11.70B
Gross Profit
8.42B8.41B8.15B7.76B7.98B6.99B
EBIT
4.30B4.38B4.26B4.07B4.03B3.26B
EBITDA
6.71B6.74B6.51B6.22B6.67B5.66B
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.58B2.61B2.39B2.55B1.78B119.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
80.00M88.00M83.00M745.00M1.14B1.18B
Total Assets
72.32B71.41B71.02B70.08B70.42B71.97B
Total Debt
32.90B31.67B31.89B31.57B33.21B34.58B
Net Debt
32.82B31.58B31.81B30.82B32.07B33.40B
Total Liabilities
40.39B39.54B39.29B37.96B38.49B39.41B
Stockholders Equity
30.61B30.53B30.31B30.74B30.82B31.44B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.76B3.01B4.15B3.35B4.43B2.84B
Operating Cash Flow
5.54B5.63B6.49B4.97B5.71B4.55B
Investing Cash Flow
-3.44B-2.63B-4.17B-2.17B-2.31B-911.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.98B-2.89B-3.01B-3.15B-3.46B-2.64B

Kinder Morgan Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price27.57
Price Trends
50DMA
27.22
Positive
100DMA
27.04
Positive
200DMA
25.99
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.04
Positive
RSI
48.58
Neutral
STOCH
28.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KMI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.84, above the 50-day MA of 27.22, and above the 200-day MA of 25.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KMI.

Kinder Morgan Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$52.58B11.8932.54%7.44%5.53%11.29%
OKOKE
79
Outperform
$51.31B16.0416.04%5.06%40.55%19.24%
ETET
78
Outperform
$62.29B13.6713.73%7.31%1.04%22.31%
EPEPD
75
Outperform
$68.39B11.8420.49%6.79%9.10%4.37%
KMKMI
73
Outperform
$61.46B23.918.43%4.26%2.02%5.40%
WMWMB
71
Outperform
$72.22B31.7318.32%3.42%8.63%-20.98%
58
Neutral
$7.59B3.32-4.46%9.96%0.83%-49.64%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KMI
Kinder Morgan
27.57
8.67
45.87%
ET
Energy Transfer
17.88
3.30
22.63%
EPD
Enterprise Products Partners
31.12
4.46
16.73%
OKE
Oneok
81.17
3.72
4.80%
WMB
Williams Co
59.12
18.24
44.62%
MPLX
MPLX
51.41
13.36
35.11%

Kinder Morgan Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Kinder Morgan to Attend Barclays Infrastructure Conference
Neutral
Jun 13, 2025

On June 12, 2025, Kinder Morgan, Inc. announced its participation in the Barclays Global Infrastructure Conference scheduled for June 17, 2025. This engagement is aimed at discussing the company’s business operations and affairs, potentially impacting its industry positioning and providing insights to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (KMI) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kinder Morgan stock, see the KMI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kinder Morgan Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 20, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Kinder Morgan, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 1,942,512,111 shares were represented, forming a quorum. During the meeting, stockholders elected eleven directors to the board, ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and conducted an advisory vote on executive compensation.

The most recent analyst rating on (KMI) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kinder Morgan stock, see the KMI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Kinder Morgan to Release Updated Investor Presentation
Neutral
Apr 18, 2025

On April 17, 2025, Kinder Morgan, Inc. announced its intention to release an updated investor presentation on its website by April 21, 2025. This announcement is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to provide transparency and updated information to its investors, potentially impacting stakeholder engagement and market perception.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.