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Energy Transfer
(NYSE:ET)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$21.50
â–²(14.00% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/10/26
The score is driven by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield), constructive price/indicator setup, and a supportive earnings update with raised EBITDA guidance. These positives are tempered by elevated leverage and signs of weaker recent cash-flow conversion, plus execution and timing/hedge risks highlighted on the earnings call.
Positive Factors
Fee-based contracted midstream model
Energy Transfer’s core fee‑based model—tariffs, reservation charges and multi‑year contracts across gas, NGL, crude and terminals—provides durable, predictable cash flows that reduce direct commodity exposure. Over 2–6 months this underpins distribution coverage and funds reinvestment even if volumes wobble.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Higher leverage increases refinancing and interest sensitivity, limiting balance sheet flexibility to absorb project delays or commodity downturns. Over a 2–6 month horizon, elevated debt levels constrain optionality on incremental investments, make covenant and payout planning more sensitive to cash‑flow volatility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fee-based contracted midstream model
Energy Transfer’s core fee‑based model—tariffs, reservation charges and multi‑year contracts across gas, NGL, crude and terminals—provides durable, predictable cash flows that reduce direct commodity exposure. Over 2–6 months this underpins distribution coverage and funds reinvestment even if volumes wobble.
Read all positive factors
Energy Transfer Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
NGL Transportation Volumes
Measures the volume of natural gas liquids transported, indicating the company's operational scale and efficiency in moving energy products, which impacts revenue and market positioning.
Measures the volume of natural gas liquids transported, indicating the company's operational scale and efficiency in moving energy products, which impacts revenue and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEnergy Transfer (ET) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$65.79B
Dividend Yield8.04%
Average Volume (3M)10.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth12.46%
EPS Growth-10.48%
CountryUS
Employees16,248
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.34
Shares Outstanding3,441,159,200
10 Day Avg. Volume9,573,907
30 Day Avg. Volume10,126,540
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio15.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.51
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.43Price Target Upside29.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)1.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$109.56B
Energy Transfer Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Energy Transfer LP functions as a comprehensive provider of energy infrastructure and associated services. The company operates extensive natural gas networks, including approximately 11,600 miles of intrastate transportation pipelines and an addi...
How the Company Makes Money
Energy Transfer primarily makes money by charging fees for moving, handling, and storing hydrocarbons across its midstream network. A major source of revenue comes from transportation and storage services on natural gas, NGL, crude oil, and refine...
Energy Transfer Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: management reported strong Q1 operational results and raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance, supported by record volumes, successful project commissioning, long-term contracted growth projects, and increased capex to capture demand. Offsetting items include a modest decline in midstream EBITDA, reliance on one-time/optimization gains and weather-driven effects in Q1, expected Q2 hedge offsets, and execution/regulatory risks tied to a large project slate and geopolitical uncertainty. Overall the tone was upbeat with clear growth visibility but with acknowledged near-term volatility and execution risk.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $4.9 billion in Q1 2026 versus approximately $4.1 billion in Q1 2025, an increase of ~$0.8 billion (~+19.5%). DCF attributable to partners was reported as approximately $2.7 billion for Q1 2026. (Note: the transcript shows Q1 2025 DCF as approximately $23 billion, which appears to be a likely transcription/typographical error.) Q1 organic growth capital spent was approximately $1.5 billion.
Negative Updates
Midstream Segment Earnings Decline and Commodity Headwinds
Midstream adjusted EBITDA declined to approximately $887 million in Q1 2026 from ~$925 million in Q1 2025 (~-4.1%). Performance was impacted by a ~$25 million decrease from lower NGL and natural gas prices and the comparison was against a Q1 2025 that included ~$160 million of revenue recognition related to Winter Storm Uri.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $4.9 billion in Q1 2026 versus approximately $4.1 billion in Q1 2025, an increase of ~$0.8 billion (~+19.5%). DCF attributable to partners was reported as approximately $2.7 billion for Q1 2026. (Note: the transcript shows Q1 2025 DCF as approximately $23 billion, which appears to be a likely transcription/typographical error.) Q1 organic growth capital spent was approximately $1.5 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Energy Transfer raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $18.2–$18.6 billion (prior $17.45–$17.85B), reflecting a Q1 beat of ~ $500 million and a midpoint uplift of ~$750 million after capturing its full‑year optimization target in Q1; management assumes a conservative commodity stack for the balance of the year but noted sustained prices could push results to the high end or above. Organic growth capital guidance was raised to ~$5.5–$5.9 billion (prior $5.0–$5.5B), excluding Sun and USAC, after spending ~$1.5 billion in Q1; project-level items called out include ~ $600 million for the Springerville lateral (≈120 miles, ~625 MMcf/d capacity), ET’s share of FGT Phase 9 and South Florida of roughly $565 million and $110 million, a new 3 million‑barrel ethane cavern (Mont Belvieu, in service 2027), Mustang Draw plants (275 MMcf/d each), Hugh Brinson Phase 1 (1.5 Bcf/d; in service late 2026 with Phase 2 in 2027), intrastate additions adding ~300 MMcf/d with ~400 MMcf/d in advanced talks, Nexus initial 150 MMcf/d, Tiger lateral commitments of ≥250k MMBtu/day (option up to 1 Bcf/d), and crude growth items (~250k bpd Canadian capacity and Bayou Bridge expansion up to ~600k bpd in 1Q27). They reiterated long‑term targets of 3–5% annual distribution growth, leverage of 4.0x–4.5x EBITDA, expected mid‑teen returns on growth projects, and stated upside remains possible from continued market volatility.Energy Transfer Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 89.38B | 82.63B | 82.67B | 78.59B | 89.88B | 67.42B |
| Gross Profit | 20.48B | 18.01B | 15.69B | 13.80B | 13.31B | 13.45B |
| EBITDA | 14.68B | 14.93B | 15.40B | 12.56B | 12.29B | 12.63B |
| Net Income | 4.83B | 4.90B | 4.81B | 3.94B | 4.76B | 5.47B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 147.48B | 141.74B | 125.38B | 113.70B | 105.64B | 105.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 971.00M | 1.32B | 321.00M | 227.00M | 267.00M | 346.00M |
| Total Debt | 71.11B | 71.61B | 60.56B | 53.22B | 49.11B | 50.57B |
| Total Liabilities | 97.49B | 92.48B | 78.95B | 68.98B | 64.49B | 65.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.46B | 34.37B | 35.12B | 36.68B | 33.03B | 31.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.65B | 3.85B | 7.34B | 6.42B | 5.67B | 8.34B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.65B | 10.15B | 11.51B | 9.55B | 9.05B | 11.16B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.74B | -8.37B | -5.90B | -4.33B | -4.02B | -2.77B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -406.00M | -816.00M | -5.45B | -5.33B | -5.11B | -8.42B |
Energy Transfer Technical Analysis
Positive
18.86
Price Trends
19.37
Negative
18.93
Positive
17.58
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.11
Negative
49.47
Neutral
75.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.11, below the 50-day MA of 19.37, and above the 200-day MA of 17.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ET.
Energy Transfer Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $65.79B | 14.29 | 13.97% | 8.04% | 12.46% | -10.48% | |
73 Outperform | $79.53B | 13.61 | 20.04% | 6.72% | -9.49% | 1.01% | |
73 Outperform | $54.78B | 15.56 | 15.92% | 5.61% | 41.04% | 9.18% | |
73 Outperform | $57.16B | 12.21 | 33.27% | 7.31% | 3.18% | 6.43% | |
72 Outperform | $71.13B | 21.56 | 10.69% | 4.27% | 12.38% | 28.17% | |
70 Outperform | $90.92B | 32.56 | 22.37% | 3.35% | 9.99% | 22.02% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
ET
Energy Transfer
19.12
2.59
15.66%
EPD
Enterprise Products Partners
36.76
7.56
25.91%
KMI
Kinder Morgan
31.97
4.77
17.52%
OKE
Oneok
86.94
10.18
13.26%
WMB
Williams Co
74.34
17.43
30.62%
MPLX
MPLX
56.33
9.38
19.98%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.