Energy Transfer (ET) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $64.75B
• Dividend Yield: 8.04%
• Average Volume (3M): 15.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: -4.67%
• EPS Growth: -8.06%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,248
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 3,433,387,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,060,426
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,705,745
• PEG Ratio: 2.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.75
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.36
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.98
• 1Y Price Target: $21.14
• Price Target Upside: 11.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.57
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $98.68B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.50 ▲(8.01% Upside)

The score is primarily constrained by financial quality concerns—especially the 2025 cash flow print reported as zero and higher leverage—despite solid profitability. Support comes from a constructive trend in the technicals and a favorable income/valuation profile (7% yield, reasonable P/E), while the latest earnings call was broadly positive with raised 2026 EBITDA guidance and a strong contracted growth backlog tempered by DCF softness and commodity-basis/competition risks.

Positive Factors

Secured growth-capex program

Energy Transfer’s $5.0–$5.5B 2026 organic capex plan is concentrated on projects backed by long-term commitments and targeted mid‑teen returns. That markedly reduces execution revenue risk, supports predictable fee-based cash flows, and composes a durable growth runway into 2027–2029.

Scale in exports and throughput

Operational records and expanded export capability at Nederland and Marcus Hook demonstrate durable scale advantages. High throughput and export terminals diversify revenue sources, increase fee-bearing volumes, and strengthen long-term cash generation vs peers lacking export infrastructure.

Long-term contracted customer wins

Large, term-structured commercial wins (data centers, power plants, and >6 Bcf/day contracted capacity) create durable, take-or-pay like revenue streams. Such customer diversity and long-duration contracts improve predictability of volumes and underpin steady fee income over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Material debt build in 2025 pushed leverage meaningfully higher, reducing financial flexibility. Elevated balance-sheet leverage increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constrains capacity for opportunistic investments, and raises the risk profile if cash flows weaken or projects are delayed.

Volatile/weak 2025 cash flow print

A reported zero operating and free cash flow for 2025 is a major red flag relative to consistent 2021–2024 cash generation. Even if a data/one-off issue, such volatility undermines confidence in distributable cash, complicates funding of capex, debt service, and sustaining distributions over the medium term.

Regional pricing and NGL competition risks

Persistent Waha negative-price events and intensifying NGL transport/fractionation capacity increase structural downside to margins in key basins. Such regional pricing volatility and potential overbuild can depress throughput economics and cash returns on new and existing midstream assets over several years.

Energy Transfer Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Energy Transfer LP provides energy-related services. The company owns and operates approximately 11,600 miles of natural gas transportation pipeline, and three natural gas storage facilities in Texas and two natural gas storage facilities located in the state of Texas and Oklahoma; and 19,830 miles of interstate natural gas pipeline. It also sells natural gas to electric utilities, independent power plants, local distribution and other marketing companies, and industrial end-users. The company owns and operates natural gas gathering and natural gas liquid (NGL) pipeline, processing plant, and treating and conditioning facilities in Texas, New Mexico, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, and Louisiana; natural gas gathering, oil pipeline, and oil stabilization facilities in South Texas; and a natural gas gathering system in Ohio, as well as transport and supplies water to natural gas producer in Pennsylvania. It owns approximately 5,215 miles of NGL pipeline; NGL and propane fractionation facilities; NGL storage facilities with working storage capacity of approximately 50 million barrels (MMBbls); and other NGL storage assets and terminal with an aggregate storage capacity of approximately 17 MMBbls. The company provides crude oil transportation, terminalling, acquisition, and marketing activities; and sells and distributes gasoline, middle distillate, and motor fuels and other petroleum product. It offers natural gas compression service; carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide removal, natural gas cooling, dehydration, and British thermal unit management service; and manages coal and natural resources properties, as well as sells standing timber, leases coal-related infrastructure facilities, collects oil and gas royalty, and generate electrical power. The company was formerly known as Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. and changed its name to Energy Transfer LP in October 2018. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Energy Transfer generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the transportation and storage of hydrocarbons. The company earns fees for transporting natural gas and liquids through its extensive pipeline system, charging customers based on the volume of product transported. Additionally, it makes money from the storage of these products, collecting fees for the capacity used by customers. The company also engages in the sale of natural gas and related products, generating revenue from its retail marketing segment. Significant partnerships with major energy producers and shippers enhance its revenue-generating capabilities, while long-term contracts provide stability and predictability in cash flows. Furthermore, Energy Transfer benefits from the increasing demand for energy infrastructure and the need for reliable transportation solutions in the evolving energy landscape.

Energy Transfer Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength is solid (stable revenue base and consistent profitability since 2021), but it is offset by higher leverage in 2025 (debt-to-equity rising to ~2.1) and a major latest-year cash flow red flag (2025 operating and free cash flow reported as zero), which materially increases uncertainty despite stronger prior-year cash generation.

Income Statement

Revenue has been broadly stable with modest growth in 2024–2025 (near-flat in 2024 and mid-single-digit in 2025), following a 2023 decline. Profitability is steady for a midstream operator: net margin sits around ~5–6% in 2022–2025 (improving versus 2023), and operating profitability remains solid. A key strength is the sharp rebound from the 2020 loss to consistently positive earnings since 2021. The main weakness is limited top-line momentum and some margin variability across the period.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is asset-heavy with meaningful leverage. Total debt increased notably in 2025 versus 2024, and leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity rising to ~2.1 in 2025 from ~1.7 in 2024). Equity has been relatively stable, and returns on equity are healthy in the low-to-mid teens in recent years, indicating the asset base is producing earnings. The primary risk is higher leverage and debt build in the latest year, which reduces financial flexibility if operating conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation was strong and supportive in 2021–2024, with operating cash flow consistently sizeable and free cash flow meaningfully positive, including free cash flow covering a substantial portion of net income in those years. However, 2025 shows operating cash flow and free cash flow reported as zero, driving a -100% free cash flow growth reading and materially weakening the latest-year cash flow profile (this could reflect data/reporting issues, but it is what is provided). As a result, the cash flow picture is volatile, with the most recent year being a major red flag despite solid prior-year performance.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	79.76B	82.63B	82.67B	78.59B	89.88B	67.42B
Gross Profit	16.33B	18.01B	15.69B	13.80B	13.31B	13.45B
EBITDA	15.20B	14.93B	15.40B	12.56B	12.29B	12.63B
Net Income	4.52B	4.90B	4.81B	3.94B	4.76B	5.47B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	129.33B	141.29B	125.38B	113.70B	105.64B	105.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.59B	0.00	312.00M	161.00M	257.00M	336.00M
Total Debt	63.97B	71.34B	60.56B	53.22B	49.11B	50.57B
Total Liabilities	82.19B	92.28B	78.95B	68.98B	64.49B	65.83B
Stockholders Equity	34.68B	34.37B	35.12B	36.68B	33.03B	31.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	5.26B	0.00	7.34B	6.42B	5.67B	8.34B
Operating Cash Flow	10.84B	0.00	11.51B	9.55B	9.05B	11.16B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.90B	0.00	-5.90B	-4.33B	-4.02B	-2.77B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.67B	-816.00M	-5.45B	-5.33B	-5.11B	-8.42B

Energy Transfer Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.18, above the 50-day MA of 17.13, and above the 200-day MA of 16.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.70 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ET.

Energy Transfer Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OKE	82 Outperform	$54.61B	15.96	17.14%	5.61%	58.76%	13.74%
MPLX	80 Outperform	$57.67B	11.76	34.70%	7.31%	5.19%	11.09%
EPD	75 Outperform	$78.12B	13.60	―	6.72%	-6.46%	-0.87%
KMI	70 Outperform	$71.84B	23.61	9.85%	4.27%	8.54%	7.22%
WMB	70 Outperform	$88.10B	33.71	20.74%	3.35%	11.48%	-17.82%
ET	67 Neutral	$64.75B	15.59	12.75%	8.04%	-4.67%	-8.06%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Energy Transfer Corporate Events

Energy Transfer Establishes Tenth Supplemental Indenture for Senior Notes

On January 27, 2026, Energy Transfer LP executed a Tenth Supplemental Indenture with U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee, under its existing December 14, 2022 base indenture, establishing the framework for new senior notes issuance and related documentation. The filing, signed by Executive Vice President and Group Chief Financial Officer Dylan A. Bramhall, formalized the governing legal structure for these senior notes, including the forms of the notes and associated legal opinions, marking another step in the company’s ongoing use of debt capital markets to support its financial and operational strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (ET) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Transfer stock, see the ET Stock Forecast page.

Energy Transfer Announces $3 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On January 12, 2026, Energy Transfer LP priced a $3.0 billion public offering of senior notes in three tranches—$1.0 billion of 4.550% notes due 2031, $1.0 billion of 5.350% notes due 2036 and $1.0 billion of 6.300% notes due 2056—at slight discounts to face value, with settlement expected on January 27, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. The company expects to receive approximately $2.97 billion in net proceeds before expenses, which it plans to use primarily to refinance existing indebtedness, including commercial paper and borrowings under its revolving credit facility, and for general partnership purposes, a move that should strengthen its balance sheet and may lower its near- and medium-term funding costs while channeling proceeds in part to lending affiliates of the underwriting banks through debt repayment.

The most recent analyst rating on (ET) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Transfer stock, see the ET Stock Forecast page.

Energy Transfer Issues 2026 Growth and Earnings Outlook

On January 6, 2026, Energy Transfer issued its 2026 outlook, projecting $5.0 billion to $5.5 billion in growth capital expenditures, directed mainly toward expanding its nationwide natural gas network through projects backed by long-term commitments and targeting mid-teens returns. The partnership expects consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $17.3 billion to $17.7 billion in 2026, supported by a slate of major projects ramping up or coming online, including NGL expansions at Nederland Flexport and Lone Star Express, new Mustang Draw processing plants in the Permian Basin, the Hugh Brinson Pipeline Phase I, and gas pipelines serving Texas data centers, while aiming to maintain leverage of 4.0–4.5 times EBITDA and sustain 3–5 percent annual distribution growth after having returned more than half its annual cash flow to unitholders through distributions over the past three years.

The most recent analyst rating on (ET) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Transfer stock, see the ET Stock Forecast page.