Energy Transfer (ET) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $62.46B
• Dividend Yield: 7.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.85M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: 1.04%
• EPS Growth: 22.31%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,248
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.36
• Shares Outstanding: 3,431,778,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 13,959,221
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,850,214
• PEG Ratio: 3.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.67
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.01
• 1Y Price Target: $22.43
• Price Target Upside: 23.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $20.50 ▲(12.64%Upside)

Energy Transfer's overall stock score is bolstered primarily by its strong financial performance and attractive valuation, offering robust profitability and appealing dividend yield. Technical analysis indicates a stable but cautious market sentiment, while strategic growth initiatives from the earnings call present a positive outlook. However, challenges from export restrictions and litigation pose potential risks that need monitoring.

Positive Factors

Growth Opportunities

Management expects to make a significant data center and power generation announcement soon, indicating potential growth opportunities.

Performance Stability

The company's Q1 EBITDA was in line with expectations, and it maintained its 2025 EBITDA guidance, showing stability.

Potential Returns

ET is priced to deliver 12% annual total return, which should drive outperformance.

Negative Factors

Capex Concerns

The major point of contention is the $5bn growth capex, which is above previous growth capex spend of $2-$3bn per year.

Earnings Forecast

The analyst is lowering volume growth forecasts due to slower expected growth in the midstream and crude oil segments.

Free Cash Flow

ET projects to outspend free cash flow after distributions by $0.5B in 2025.

Energy Transfer Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Energy Transfer LP (ET) is a leading American energy company engaged in the transportation, storage, and terminalling of crude oil, natural gas, and refined products. The company operates an extensive network of pipelines and facilities that spans across the United States, connecting major production areas with key consumption markets. Energy Transfer's core services include natural gas transportation and storage, crude oil transportation and storage, and refined product transportation. Additionally, the company owns and operates a diverse portfolio of assets, including natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation and distribution facilities, interstate and intrastate natural gas pipelines, and crude oil terminals.

How the Company Makes Money

Energy Transfer generates revenue primarily through the fees it charges for the transportation and storage of natural gas, crude oil, and refined products. The company operates under long-term, fee-based contracts, providing stable and predictable cash flows. Key revenue streams include intrastate and interstate natural gas transportation services, crude oil and refined product transportation services, and the sale and distribution of natural gas liquids. Energy Transfer's earnings are also supported by its ownership interests in several joint ventures and partnerships that expand its operational reach and market access. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic acquisitions and asset optimizations that enhance its infrastructure capabilities and service offerings.

Energy Transfer Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Energy Transfer shows strong financial health with robust profitability and cash flow generation, underpinned by efficient operations in the Oil & Gas Midstream industry. While the company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio, it compensates with a healthy return on equity and strong cash flow, suggesting resilience and potential for sustainable growth. However, focus on revenue generation and leverage management is necessary for future expansion.

Income Statement

Energy Transfer demonstrates strong profitability with a consistent EBIT and EBITDA margin, reflecting efficient operations. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 19.3%, indicating a healthy level of profitability. However, the net profit margin is around 6.0%, suggesting room for improvement in cost management or revenue generation. Revenue growth has been sluggish, with a TTM decline of approximately 0.7% compared to the previous annual period, highlighting challenges in increasing sales.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a substantial debt-to-equity ratio of 1.72, signaling significant leverage which could pose financial risks if not managed properly. The return on equity (ROE) is a respectable 13.9%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. With an equity ratio of about 27.9%, the company shows a stable financial foundation but highlights the need for careful debt management to ensure financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Energy Transfer's cash flow performance is robust, with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.18, indicating excellent cash conversion from profits. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -17.5% due to increased capital expenditures, suggesting potential future growth investments. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.24 demonstrates solid cash generation relative to profits, supporting liquidity and investment capacity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	82.06B	82.67B	78.59B	89.88B	67.42B	38.95B
Gross Profit	15.84B	15.53B	13.66B	13.48B	13.21B	9.79B
EBITDA	15.57B	15.40B	12.56B	12.29B	12.63B	9.54B
Net Income	4.90B	4.81B	3.94B	4.76B	5.47B	140.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	126.42B	125.38B	113.70B	105.64B	105.96B	95.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	453.00M	312.00M	161.00M	257.00M	336.00M	367.00M
Total Debt	60.61B	60.56B	53.22B	49.11B	50.57B	52.33B
Total Liabilities	79.84B	78.95B	68.98B	64.49B	65.83B	62.99B
Stockholders Equity	35.32B	35.12B	36.68B	33.03B	31.30B	18.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.06B	7.34B	6.42B	5.67B	8.34B	2.23B
Operating Cash Flow	10.65B	11.51B	9.55B	9.05B	11.16B	7.36B
Investing Cash Flow	-5.91B	-5.90B	-4.33B	-4.02B	-2.77B	-4.90B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.24B	-5.45B	-5.33B	-5.11B	-8.42B	-2.39B

Energy Transfer Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.89, above the 50-day MA of 17.45, and above the 200-day MA of 17.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ET.

Energy Transfer Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OKE	81 Outperform	$50.75B	15.86	16.04%	5.07%	40.55%	19.24%
MPLX	81 Outperform	$52.68B	11.92	32.54%	7.41%	5.53%	11.29%
ET	78 Outperform	$62.46B	13.71	13.73%	7.20%	1.04%	22.31%
KMI	73 Outperform	$64.40B	25.06	8.43%	4.04%	2.02%	5.40%
WMB	71 Outperform	$76.52B	33.62	18.32%	3.19%	8.63%	-20.98%
EPD	69 Neutral	$67.37B	11.67	20.49%	6.89%	9.10%	4.37%
Sector *	61 Neutral	£7.84B	-2.87	-8.53%	7.50%	-3.78%	-96.57%

Energy Transfer Corporate Events

Energy Transfer Faces New Export Restrictions to China

On June 3, 2025, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) notified Energy Transfer LP that a license is required for exporting ethane to China or Chinese military end users due to concerns about its use in China’s military-civil fusion strategy. Energy Transfer is evaluating the impact of these restrictions on its operations and market, as it may affect their ability to export ethane and potentially impact U.S. crude oil and natural gas production and prices.

The most recent analyst rating on (ET) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Energy Transfer stock, see the ET Stock Forecast page.

Energy Transfer Increases Quarterly Cash Distribution

On April 23, 2025, Energy Transfer LP announced an increase in its quarterly cash distribution to $0.3275 per common unit for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, marking a more than 3% increase compared to the previous year. This distribution will be paid on May 20, 2025, to unitholders of record as of May 9, 2025. The announcement reflects positively on the company’s financial performance and may enhance its attractiveness to investors, reinforcing its strong position in the energy sector.