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Mosaic Co (MOS)
NYSE:MOS
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Mosaic Co
(NYSE:MOS)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$34.00
▲(16.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial resilience from the dramatically stronger balance sheet, offset by weak cash flow quality (negative 2025 free cash flow) and mixed near-term fundamentals from the latest earnings call (notably sulfur cost headwinds and working-capital pressures). Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, while valuation is reasonable with a moderate P/E and a ~2.8% yield.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
A materially lower debt load and sizable equity base give Mosaic lasting financial flexibility versus prior cycles. Low leverage supports capital allocation (capex, divestitures, buffering commodity swings), reduces refinancing risk and increases resilience through fertilizer price volatility over the next 2–6 months.
Production capacity & guidance
Clear 2026 production targets and visible quarterly recovery indicate improving operating throughput and utilization. Higher run rates lift operating leverage, should lower unit conversion costs over time, and underpin sustained volume-driven revenue recovery as mine and plant ramps normalize.
Structural cost reductions
Realized and targeted efficiency gains (supply-chain, tech, supplier consolidation) lower structural cost per tonne. Sustained savings plus conversion-cost targets (<$100/tonne over time) enhance margin durability across commodity cycles and strengthen competitive cost position in potash/phosphate markets.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Negative free cash flow despite positive net income signals weaker cash conversion and heavier near-term funding needs. This constrains shareholder returns, limits flexibility on discretionary spending, and raises reliance on working-capital normalization or asset monetization to restore robust FCF.
Working-capital strain
Large inventory accumulation and elevated working capital elevated net debt and reduced liquidity. Even if management targets a $300–$500M release in 2026, the timing is uncertain; prolonged WC pressure can impede reinvestment, slow deleveraging and expose results to seasonal demand shifts.
Input-cost exposure (sulfur)
High sensitivity to sulfur and other input prices creates persistent margin volatility. Without reliable pass-through mechanisms or hedges, commodity-driven input spikes can materially erode profitability and cashflow for multiple quarters, complicating the recovery despite operational gains.
Mosaic Co (MOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.31B
Dividend Yield3.7%
Average Volume (3M)8.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.1
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth3.82%
EPS Growth239.39%
CountryUS
Employees13,765
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding317,505,250
10 Day Avg. Volume12,728,697
30 Day Avg. Volume8,284,235
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.63
P/FCF Ratio-14.30
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.54
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.40Price Target Upside3.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.61B
Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionThe Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyMosaic makes money primarily by selling fertilizer and related crop nutrient products, with revenues largely tied to volumes sold and market prices for key commodities. Its main revenue streams come from (1) Phosphates: mining phosphate rock and manufacturing finished phosphate fertilizers (such as MAP and DAP) and related products that are sold to growers, cooperatives, and distributors; this segment can also generate revenue from sales of industrial phosphate products and feed ingredients produced as part of phosphate processing. (2) Potash: producing potash fertilizer and selling it into global agricultural markets. Mosaic’s earnings are influenced by commodity pricing cycles (phosphate and potash benchmark prices), raw material and energy costs, production rates and operating efficiencies at its mining and processing assets, logistics and distribution costs, and demand driven by planted acreage, crop prices, and farmer economics. The company also benefits from its distribution/marketing capabilities and global customer relationships that help place product across regions and seasons. Specific significant partnerships or contract terms are null.
Mosaic Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Provides a breakdown of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Provides a breakdown of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for each business segment, highlighting profitability and operational efficiency across different areas of the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMosaic Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed but constructive outlook: significant operational and cost progress (production improvement, $150M cost savings achieved, Mosaic Biosciences growth, record and near-record production in key mines, portfolio monetizations) provide a strong platform for recovery. However, near-term headwinds are material — a large working capital drag ($960M), higher net debt, a pronounced sulfur-driven margin hit (~$250M EBITDA headwind to Q1), idled low-margin Brazil operations, and weaker U.S. phosphate demand in Q4. Management expects these issues to resolve progressively in 2026 (working capital release of $300M–$500M and production ramp), but the near-term cash/commodity cost pressures balance against the operational gains, producing a cautiously neutral stance.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Phosphate Production Recovery and 2026 Guidance
Produced 1.7 million tonnes of phosphate in Q4 2025 (despite an extended Bartow turnaround); company expects at least 7.0 million tonnes of phosphate production in 2026 with upside as operating factors normalize.
Potash Production Strength
International potash sales set a record in 2025; Esterhazy returned to full operating rates and HydroFloat is ramping. Mosaic expects to produce around 9 million tonnes of potash in 2026 (similar to 2025) and anticipates record Esterhazy output.
Material Cost and Efficiency Improvements
Delivered $150 million of cost savings in 2025 ahead of schedule and targets an additional $100 million of savings in 2026 through technology-enabled initiatives, supply chain optimization and supplier consolidation.
Improved Phosphate Conversion Cost
Fourth quarter phosphate cash cost of conversion was $112 per tonne — roughly $20 per tonne improvement from an earlier high watermark in 2025; management expects further structural declines with scale (targeting below $100 conversion cost over time).
Potash Cash Cost Competitiveness
Reported 2025 potash cash cost of production averaged $75 per tonne and would have met Analyst Day target range if not for higher-cost Colonsay extension.
Brazil Operations and Rock Cost Progress
Brazil rock output reached near-record levels in 2025; Mosaic Fertilizantes blended rock cost per tonne fell to $97 (lowest since 2021). Completed a 1 million tonne blending facility in Palmeirante to expand distribution capacity.
Mosaic Biosciences Rapid Growth
Mosaic Biosciences doubled net sales to $68 million in 2025, reached 60+ registrations and sales in 16 countries; management expects another year of doubling net sales in 2026 with 8–10 new product launches, and gross margins in the 40s.
Portfolio Reallocation and Monetization Progress
Divested several noncore assets (Patos de Minas, Taquari) and a pending Carlsbad sale; transactions announced in 2025 expected to generate approximately $170 million in proceeds and reduce ARO by ~$60 million. Ma'aden equity position valued at about $2.1 billion.
Working Capital Release Potential
Management estimates a $300 million to $500 million working capital release in 2026 driven by inventory drawdown (including ~240,000 tonnes excess phosphate rock, ~ $140 million at current values) and demand recovery, which should materially improve cash flow.
Capital Expenditure Path and Near-Term Investment
2026 CapEx expected around $1.5 billion (higher than 2025 due to gyp stack and clay settling area projects); management views this as a near-term peak and expects CapEx to trend down toward ~$1.0 billion by 2030.
Negative Updates
Sharp Fourth-Quarter Demand Weakness in U.S. Phosphate
U.S. phosphate demand fell sharply in Q4 2025 due to farmer affordability issues and government payment uncertainty; North America phosphate shipments declined to ~8.5 million tonnes in 2025 from ~10 million tonnes previously (~15% year-over-year decline).
Inventory Build and Cash Flow Drag
Inventory builds in finished products and raw materials reduced cash flow by approximately $960 million in 2025 and contributed to a $829 million increase in net debt for the year; EBITDA-to-cash conversion fell to the mid-30s% in 2025 versus a normalized ~70%.
Sulfur Price Spike and Near-Term Margin Pressure
A sharp sulfur price increase since December 2025 is expected to significantly compress margins in Phosphate and Mosaic Fertilizantes into H1 2026; management estimates roughly a $250 million headwind to Q1 2026 EBITDA versus prior year and notes every $10/t change in sulfur adds ~$10 million quarterly expense.
Idled Low-Margin Brazilian Assets
Araxa and Fospar (Brazil) were idled until further notice to protect margins amid high sulfur costs; idling and production curtailments impaired near-term sales and contributed to narrower distribution margins in Brazil.
Working Capital and Inventory Concentration
Excess phosphate inventory (~240,000 tonnes) and higher-value purchased nutrients elevated working capital in 2025; some of the inventory drag is concentrated in Brazil and North America and created near-term liquidity pressure.
Balance Sheet and Financing Impacts
Raised $900 million in 3- and 5-year notes in Nov 2025 and used proceeds primarily to retire short-term commercial paper; net debt increased and management delayed plans for more aggressive capital returns until cash flow normalizes.
Phosphate Production Recovery Slower Than Expected
Management acknowledged that phosphate production recovery took longer than anticipated in 2025; prior internal targets (e.g., 2.0 million tonnes per quarter) were not met in late-2025 and guidance is being staged on demonstrated trailing results (1.7–1.8 million t/qtr shown in Q4).
Market and Credit Constraints in Brazil
Credit constraints and high interest rates in Brazil depressed demand and forced disciplined selling; management would be selective on customer credit, which may temper near-term volume growth despite long-term opportunity from expanding acreage and yields.
Company Guidance
Mosaic guided to at least 7.0 million tonnes of phosphate production in 2026 (Q4’25 phosphate was 1.7 Mt) and roughly 9.0 million tonnes of potash (similar to 2025) while running potash at high operating rates and targeting record Esterhazy output; conversion costs improved to $112/tonne in Q4 for phosphate (goal sub-$100/tonne), potash cash cost averaged $75/tonne in 2025, and Mosaic Fertilizantes blended rock cost was $97/tonne. They expect CapEx around $1.5 billion in 2026 (stepping down toward ~$1.0 billion by 2030), ARO/environmental cash spending to decline by about $50 million in 2026 and to ~$200 million by 2030, and divestitures (including Carlsbad) to generate ~ $170 million of proceeds and reduce ARO by ~$60 million. Financially, Mosaic said working capital release of $300–$500 million is “highly possible” in 2026 (240k tonnes of excess phosphate ≈ $140 million near-term), Q1’26 faces an ~ $250 million EBITDA headwind from higher sulfur (each $10/tonne sulfur ≈ $10 million/quarter), 2025 WC drag was $960 million, net debt rose ~$829 million, EBITDA→CFO conversion fell to the mid-30s% in 2025 (versus a ~70% normalized target), and Mosaic Biosciences (net sales $68 million in 2025) expects another year of doubling with 8–10 new launches, 60+ registrations, sales in 16 countries and gross margins in the 40s.Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Balance sheet strength improved meaningfully with a sharp 2025 debt reduction (low leverage and solid equity base). However, profitability remains well below the 2022 peak and cash generation is a concern: 2025 free cash flow turned negative despite positive net income, indicating weaker cash conversion and/or elevated investment.Income Statement
Revenue rebounded in 2025 (annual revenue up vs. 2024), but the multi-year picture is uneven with sharp declines in 2023–2024 after a peak in 2022, highlighting cyclical end-market exposure. Profitability has compressed materially from 2022 highs: net margin fell from ~18.7% (2022) to ~1.6% (2024) before improving to ~4.5% (2025). Gross margin also remains well below 2021–2022 levels, indicating weaker pricing/spreads versus the prior cycle.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage improved dramatically in 2025, with total debt dropping to ~$0.76B from ~$4.45B in 2024, pushing debt-to-equity down to ~0.06 (from ~0.39). Equity and assets remain sizable (~$12.1B equity; ~$24.5B assets), supporting financial flexibility. The main weakness is return on equity, which is still modest in 2025 (~4.5%) versus much stronger levels in 2021–2022, reflecting lower profitability rather than balance-sheet strain.82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remained positive in 2025 (~$0.82B) but was well below prior years (notably 2022–2023). Free cash flow turned negative in 2025 (about -$0.53B) after being modestly positive in 2024 and strong in 2021–2023, suggesting heavier investment or weaker cash conversion this year. Cash generation also looks less supportive relative to earnings in 2025 given negative free cash flow versus positive net income.48
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.05B | 11.12B | 13.70B | 19.13B | 12.36B |
| Gross Profit | 1.82B | 1.51B | 2.21B | 5.76B | 3.20B |
| EBITDA | 2.61B | 1.57B | 2.48B | 5.75B | 3.23B |
| Net Income | 540.70M | 174.90M | 1.16B | 3.58B | 1.63B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 24.48B | 22.92B | 23.03B | 23.39B | 22.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 276.60M | 272.80M | 348.80M | 735.40M | 769.50M |
| Total Debt | 5.28B | 4.45B | 3.99B | 3.81B | 4.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.25B | 11.31B | 10.60B | 11.19B | 11.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.08B | 11.48B | 12.29B | 12.05B | 10.60B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -534.60M | 47.40M | 1.00B | 2.69B | 898.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 824.80M | 1.30B | 2.41B | 3.94B | 2.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.31B | -1.26B | -1.32B | -1.26B | -1.32B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 452.00M | -131.90M | -1.48B | -2.68B | -682.10M |
Mosaic Co Technical Analysis
Positive
29.31
Price Trends
27.53
Positive
26.36
Positive
30.04
Negative
Market Momentum
0.25
Negative
56.00
Neutral
80.72
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.98, above the 50-day MA of 27.53, and below the 200-day MA of 30.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.72 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MOS.
Mosaic Co Risk Analysis
Mosaic Co disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mosaic Co reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mosaic Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $19.91B | 8.62 | 29.95% | 2.56% | 12.59% | 31.40% | |
72 Outperform | $606.80M | 32.26 | -33.37% | ― | 8.88% | -349.99% | |
68 Neutral | $9.31B | 14.14 | 9.96% | 3.70% | 3.82% | 239.39% | |
62 Neutral | $3.54B | -6.71 | -27.23% | 4.52% | -3.93% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $6.93B | 32.61 | 3.77% | 3.36% | 1.77% | -8.72% | |
49 Neutral | $1.76B | -0.78 | -61.24% | 16.68% | -13.42% | -136.59% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MOS
Mosaic Co
29.31
3.57
13.88%
CF
Cf Industries Holdings
129.57
53.61
70.57%
FMC
FMC
14.04
-26.77
-65.59%
IPI
Intrepid Potash
45.26
16.08
55.11%
SMG
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
60.96
2.31
3.94%
ICL
Icl
5.37
-0.77
-12.50%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.