Mosaic Co (MOS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.23B
• Dividend Yield: 3.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 6.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 47.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: -18.79%
• EPS Growth: -84.24%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,765
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Agricultural Inputs
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 316,939,240
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,162,028
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,714,852
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.79
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 10.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $33.23
• Price Target Upside: 41.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

Mosaic's overall score reflects a moderate outlook. The strong balance sheet and positive earnings call sentiment are key strengths. However, declining revenue and profitability, cash flow challenges, and high valuation weigh down the score. The stock's technical indicators suggest caution with potential overbought conditions.

Positive Factors

Cost Savings

Operating efficiency initiatives in Fertilizantes are expected to result in $100-$120 million of cost savings.

Growth Potential

The company sees strong potential in the potash and phosphate markets, with improved utilization expected to enhance overall business performance.

Market Expansion

Mosaic Fertilizantes volumes for 2026 and 2027 are revised significantly upward from ~9Mt to 10.4Mt, reflecting an increased capacity with the opening of the Palmeirante facility.

Negative Factors

Ambitious Targets

Aggressive targets set by Mosaic Co may concern some investors, as they could be perceived as overly ambitious.

Earnings Concerns

A lack of earnings growth and limited prospects for sustained higher fertilizer prices could weigh on sentiment.

EBITDA Revisions

1Q25 EBITDA is revised from $521M to $493M, which is below the consensus of $514M.

Mosaic Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Mosaic makes money primarily through the sale of its phosphate and potash products. In the Phosphates segment, revenue is generated by mining phosphate rock and processing it into finished phosphate products such as diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP), which are sold to agricultural businesses worldwide. In the Potash segment, the company extracts potash ore and converts it into a range of products that are used as fertilizer and in industrial applications. Key revenue streams include direct sales to agricultural retailers and distributors, long-term supply agreements, and exports to international markets. Mosaic's earnings are significantly influenced by global agricultural demand, crop prices, and nutrient application rates. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its production capacity and market reach.

Mosaic Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mosaic Co's financial performance presents a mixed picture. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage and solid equity, scoring 75. However, the income statement reflects declining revenue and profitability with a score of 65, and cash flow challenges are evident with a score of 60. Overall, this results in a moderate score due to the pressures on profitability and growth.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a notable decline in revenue and margins over the TTM period. Gross Profit Margin stands at 13.87%, and Net Profit Margin is 1.57%, both indicating a significant downturn from previous years. The Revenue Growth Rate is negative, reflecting a challenging market environment. EBIT Margin is at 5.96% and EBITDA Margin at 14.01%, both of which have decreased, suggesting reduced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a stable financial position with Stockholders' Equity covering liabilities effectively. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is low at 0.07, highlighting conservative leverage. However, Return on Equity (ROE) is modest at 1.52%, suggesting limited profitability relative to equity. The Equity Ratio is strong at 50.08%, reflecting a solid capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash flows have weakened, with Free Cash Flow declining significantly. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, indicating capital expenditure challenges. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is high, which is positive, but the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is weak, showing limited cash efficiency in generating profits.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
11.12B	13.70B	19.13B	12.36B	8.68B
	Gross Profit
1.51B	2.21B	5.76B	3.20B	1.06B
	EBIT
621.50M	1.34B	3.75B	1.82B	-421.80M
	EBITDA
1.57B	2.57B	4.79B	3.30B	412.90M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
174.90M	1.16B	3.58B	1.63B	666.10M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
272.80M	348.80M	735.40M	769.50M	574.00M
	Total Assets
22.92B	23.03B	23.39B	22.04B	19.79B
	Total Debt
847.10M	3.99B	3.62B	4.28B	4.58B
	Net Debt
574.30M	3.65B	2.89B	3.51B	4.00B
	Total Liabilities
11.31B	10.60B	11.19B	11.29B	10.03B
	Stockholders Equity
11.48B	12.29B	12.05B	10.60B	9.58B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
47.40M	1.00B	2.69B	898.40M	412.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.30B	2.41B	3.94B	2.19B	1.58B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.26B	-1.32B	-1.26B	-1.32B	-1.19B
	Financing Cash Flow
-131.90M	-1.48B	-2.68B	-682.10M	-283.80M

Mosaic Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 23.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.48, below the 50-day MA of 26.29, and below the 200-day MA of 26.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOS.

Mosaic Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CF	73 Outperform	$13.29B	11.85	22.76%	2.50%	-10.48%	-13.78%
MOS	64 Neutral	$8.23B	47.60	1.47%	3.27%	-18.79%	-84.24%
FMC	63 Neutral	$4.86B	14.36	9.02%	5.96%	-5.36%	-74.25%
IPI	60 Neutral	$381.97M	―	-36.73%	―	-8.74%	-492.08%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.64B	-3.21	-21.68%	3.30%	4.19%	-30.23%
SMG	46 Neutral	$3.06B	―	4.98%	5.13%	3.61%	94.27%

Mosaic Co Corporate Events

Mosaic Co Appoints Two New Directors to Board

The Board of Directors of Mosaic Co has elected Sonya C. Little and Kathleen M. Shanahan as directors for a term expiring in 2025. Ms. Little will join the Audit Committee, while Ms. Shanahan will join the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, with both receiving compensation as non-employee directors and a prorated grant of restricted stock units.