Molina Healthcare (MOH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $15.91B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 634.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.1
• Beta (1Y): >-0.01
• Revenue Growth: 16.71%
• EPS Growth: 12.23%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,000
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 41
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Plans
• EPS (TTM): 6.08
• Shares Outstanding: 54,200,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 560,971
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 634,141
• PEG Ratio: 11.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.23
• 1Y Price Target: $371.78
• Price Target Upside: 27.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $350.00 ▲(19.61%Upside)

Molina Healthcare's strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives are the most significant factors driving the score. Technical analysis indicates mixed signals, while valuation suggests the stock is fairly valued. Despite challenges in certain segments, the company's strategic planning supports a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings

MOH reported Q1 results that beat on adjusted EPS by 2% and reiterated its FY25 adjusted EPS guide.

Medicaid Performance

Medicaid rates are coming in better than expected, with MOH raising its guide for rate increases.

Revenue Growth

Revenues were 2% above consensus, driven by better Medicaid and Exchange revenues.

Negative Factors

Earnings Guidance

2025 EPS guidance is set well below consensus expectations, and includes costs for new contract implementations.

Marketplace MLR

Marketplace MLR was significantly worse than consensus, primarily due to prior year adjustments and acquisitions.

Medicare Advantage

Medicare Advantage revenues lagged, coming in 4.5% below consensus despite better membership numbers.

Molina Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Molina Healthcare, Inc. is a managed care organization focused on providing health care services to individuals and families receiving government-sponsored health insurance. Headquartered in Long Beach, California, Molina Healthcare operates in multiple states across the U.S., offering a range of services including Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace insurance plans. The company aims to deliver quality health care to low-income individuals and those with complex health needs through a network of hospitals, physicians, and other healthcare providers.

How the Company Makes Money

Molina Healthcare generates revenue primarily through premium payments received for the health insurance plans it provides under government programs such as Medicaid and Medicare. The company contracts with state governments to manage care for Medicaid beneficiaries, receiving a fixed amount per member per month, which is known as a capitation payment. For Medicare, Molina offers plans under the Medicare Advantage program, receiving payments from the federal government. Additionally, Molina participates in the Health Insurance Marketplace, offering plans to individuals and families who do not qualify for Medicaid or Medicare. Key revenue streams include the capitation payments for Medicaid and Medicare members, as well as premium payments from Marketplace members. Molina's profitability is influenced by its ability to manage medical costs effectively and maintain a robust provider network.

Molina Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Molina Healthcare exhibits strong financial performance with consistent revenue and profit growth, effective leverage management, and robust cash flow generation. The company is well-positioned within the healthcare plans industry, though attention to cash flow volatility will be crucial for sustaining its growth trajectory.

Income Statement

Molina Healthcare has shown strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) increase from the previous year. The company maintains a solid gross profit margin and net profit margin indicating effective cost management and profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, illustrating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy equity ratio, showing that a substantial portion of the company's assets are financed by shareholders' equity. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced financial leverage. Return on equity is strong, highlighting effective use of equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio, reflecting good cash generation from operations. Free cash flow is consistently positive, supporting the company's ability to reinvest and grow. However, fluctuations in free cash flow growth rate suggest potential volatility in cash management.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
41.84B	40.65B	34.07B	31.97B	27.77B	19.42B
	Gross Profit
4.78B	4.74B	4.33B	3.93B	3.28B	2.68B
	EBIT
1.71B	1.71B	1.57B	1.17B	1.02B	1.08B
	EBITDA
1.90B	1.89B	1.74B	1.35B	1.13B	1.15B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.18B	1.18B	1.09B	792.00M	659.00M	673.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
9.29B	8.99B	9.11B	7.50B	7.64B	6.03B
	Total Assets
16.39B	15.63B	14.89B	12.31B	12.21B	9.53B
	Total Debt
3.77B	3.12B	2.38B	2.39B	2.39B	2.35B
	Net Debt
-1.09B	-1.54B	-2.46B	-1.61B	-2.05B	-1.80B
	Total Liabilities
12.08B	11.13B	10.68B	9.35B	9.58B	7.44B
	Stockholders Equity
4.31B	4.50B	4.21B	2.96B	2.63B	2.10B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
525.00M	544.00M	1.58B	682.00M	2.04B	1.82B
	Operating Cash Flow
620.00M	644.00M	1.66B	773.00M	2.12B	1.89B
	Investing Cash Flow
-99.00M	-464.00M	-744.00M	-790.00M	-1.65B	-400.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-138.00M	-347.00M	-58.00M	-441.00M	-183.00M	225.00M

Molina Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 292.61
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 292.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 310.92, below the 50-day MA of 321.11, and below the 200-day MA of 315.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MOH.

Molina Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
THC	80 Outperform	$15.96B	11.23	38.12%	―	-1.79%	-41.85%
CNC	77 Outperform	$27.55B	8.18	12.59%	―	8.85%	33.30%
MOH	76 Outperform	$15.91B	14.13	26.72%	―	16.71%	12.23%
UHS	70 Outperform	$12.16B	10.60	18.35%	0.42%	9.73%	51.87%
DVA	64 Neutral	$10.27B	13.54	260.92%	―	5.11%	14.28%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.25B	3.24	-45.38%	2.81%	16.79%	-0.06%
MLTX	41 Neutral	$3.12B	―	-30.57%	―	―	-147.80%

Molina Healthcare Corporate Events

Molina Healthcare’s Annual Meeting Highlights Key Decisions

On April 30, 2025, Molina Healthcare held its Annual Meeting where 85.6% of the company’s outstanding shares were represented. During the meeting, stockholders voted on several proposals, including the election of nine directors, approval of executive compensation, ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor, approval of the 2025 Equity Incentive Plan, and a stockholder proposal regarding special meetings. Key outcomes included the election of directors and the approval of the equity plan, while the executive compensation proposal faced significant opposition.

Molina Healthcare Wins Illinois D-SNP Contract

On March 18, 2025, Molina Healthcare announced that its subsidiary, Molina Healthcare of Illinois, was awarded a contract by the Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services to provide a Fully Integrated Dual Eligible Special Needs Plan (D-SNP). This new contract, set to replace the State’s Medicare-Medicaid Alignment Initiative demonstration program serving approximately 73,000 beneficiaries, is expected to commence on January 1, 2026, with an initial term of four years and potential extensions up to ten years.