Modine Manufacturing (MOD)
NYSE:MOD
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Modine
(NYSE:MOD)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$292.00
▲(19.81% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:02/06/26
The score is supported by a strong operational turnaround and upbeat, raised guidance driven by rapid Climate Solutions/data-center growth, but is held back by weaker recent cash flow/cash conversion and a very high valuation. Technically the trend is strong, though overbought indicators add near-term downside risk.
Positive Factors
Data-center revenue growth & demand
Rapid, sustained data‑center revenue expansion reflects structural exposure to secular AI/GPU-driven demand. Large, multi-year growth targets support scale economics, justify capacity investment, and can shift sales mix toward higher‑value solutions, improving long‑term margin and revenue visibility.
Negative Factors
Weaker cash conversion & FCF volatility
Declining cash conversion reduces internal funding for capex and working capital, increasing reliance on external financing or equity. Persistently lower FCF relative to earnings can limit ability to de‑leverage, fund capacity builds, and sustain capital returns, raising medium‑term liquidity risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Data-center revenue growth & demand
Rapid, sustained data‑center revenue expansion reflects structural exposure to secular AI/GPU-driven demand. Large, multi-year growth targets support scale economics, justify capacity investment, and can shift sales mix toward higher‑value solutions, improving long‑term margin and revenue visibility.
Read all positive factors
Modine (MOD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.74B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)986.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.81
Revenue Growth13.15%
EPS Growth-38.82%
CountryUS
Employees11,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.82
Shares Outstanding52,731,197
10 Day Avg. Volume1,100,376
30 Day Avg. Volume986,340
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.61
Price to Book (P/B)4.44
Price to Sales (P/S)1.56
P/FCF Ratio31.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda54.88
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$274.67Price Target Upside12.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)7.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.83B
Modine Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Modine Manufacturing Company provides engineered heat transfer systems and heat transfer components for use in on- and off-highway original equipment manufacturer (OEM) vehicular applications. It operates through Climate Solutions and Performance ...
How the Company Makes Money
Modine makes money primarily by selling engineered thermal-management products and systems to OEMs, distributors, and end users across its two operating segments. (1) Climate Solutions: This segment generates revenue from the sale of heating, vent...
Modine Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and strategic momentum driven by exceptional Climate Solutions growth—particularly in data centers—with meaningful margin expansion, raised revenue and EBITDA guidance, and a strategic transaction (PT spin-off and Gentherm combination) that provides cash and shareholder participation in the combined business. Near-term headwinds include negative free cash flow in the quarter due to inventory and CapEx builds, a noncash pension settlement loss, increased net debt, material cost pass-through timing affecting PT and HTS margins, and a temporary expected Q4 PT margin dip. Overall, the company emphasized confidence in long-term targets (data center revenue growth, capacity expansion and margin improvement) while acknowledging manageable near-term cash and margin timing pressures.Positive Updates
Strategic Transaction: Performance Technologies Spin-Off and Combination with Gentherm
Modine to receive approximately $210 million in cash and Modine shareholders to receive stock equal to 40% of the combined business; values the Performance Technologies business at $1.0 billion (6.8x 12-month trailing EBITDA). Transaction expected to close in Q4 calendar year, intended to accelerate portfolio transformation and unlock shareholder value.
Negative Updates
Negative Free Cash Flow and Elevated Working Capital
Free cash flow was negative $17 million in Q3 due primarily to inventory builds and higher CapEx tied to Climate Solutions capacity expansion; management noted elevated working capital and CapEx that will partially carry into the next fiscal year.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Transaction: Performance Technologies Spin-Off and Combination with Gentherm
Modine to receive approximately $210 million in cash and Modine shareholders to receive stock equal to 40% of the combined business; values the Performance Technologies business at $1.0 billion (6.8x 12-month trailing EBITDA). Transaction expected to close in Q4 calendar year, intended to accelerate portfolio transformation and unlock shareholder value.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised its fiscal 2026 outlook and provided detailed metric targets: they now expect total sales to grow 20–25% and Climate Solutions revenue to grow 40–45% (data‑center sales up in excess of 70% this year), and they raised fiscal‑26 adjusted EBITDA to $455–$475 million; they reiterated a >$1 billion data‑center sales target for this year and $2 billion by FY2028, with updated data‑center revenue growth of 50–70% annually over the next two years. Q3 results that underpin the guidance included consolidated sales +31% YoY, gross profit +24%, adjusted EBITDA +37% to a 14.9% margin (up 70 bps), adjusted EPS $1.19 (up 29%, ex a $116M noncash pension settlement), Climate Solutions revenue +51% (organic +36%) with data centers +78% YoY and a 31% sequential Q3 ramp, Climate Solutions adj. EBITDA margin at 17.9% with an expected Q4 margin of ~20–21% (200+ bps sequential improvement), and Performance Technologies revenue +1% with adj. EBITDA margin up 400 bps to 14.8% though PT sales are expected to be flat to down 7%. Cash and balance‑sheet guidance: Q3 free cash flow was negative $17M (including $24M of pension‑related cash payments), net debt $517M (up $238M YoY) with leverage 1.2, CapEx now expected $150–$180M for the year (some spend carrying into next fiscal year), and management expects positive free cash flow in Q4 and further leverage reduction by year‑end.Modine Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.87B | 2.58B | 2.41B | 2.30B | 2.05B | 1.81B |
| Gross Profit | 684.00M | 645.40M | 527.20M | 389.40M | 309.30M | 293.40M |
| EBITDA | 264.30M | 358.10M | 294.80M | 208.00M | 171.90M | -31.30M |
| Net Income | 97.80M | 184.00M | 161.50M | 153.10M | 85.20M | -210.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.48B | 1.92B | 1.85B | 1.57B | 1.43B | 1.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 98.90M | 71.60M | 60.10M | 70.60M | 48.90M | 37.80M |
| Total Debt | 867.10M | 530.00M | 571.10M | 462.30M | 472.90M | 435.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.35B | 999.40M | 1.10B | 966.30M | 968.90M | 920.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.12B | 910.20M | 747.60M | 592.80M | 450.70M | 348.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.40M | 129.30M | 126.10M | 56.80M | -28.80M | 117.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 136.30M | 213.30M | 214.60M | 107.50M | 11.50M | 149.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -307.60M | -86.60M | -283.40M | -50.40M | -51.00M | -31.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 210.40M | -113.60M | 62.70M | -33.30M | 39.20M | -145.10M |
Modine Technical Analysis
Positive
243.71
Price Trends
240.43
Positive
210.71
Positive
178.60
Positive
Market Momentum
4.42
Positive
51.78
Neutral
38.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MOD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 243.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 262.42, above the 50-day MA of 240.43, and above the 200-day MA of 178.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MOD.
Modine Risk Analysis
Modine disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Modine reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Modine Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $13.50B | 11.51 | 6.34% | 1.24% | 2.36% | 34.03% | |
74 Outperform | $7.00B | 8.78 | 10.41% | 2.63% | 2.86% | 17.30% | |
69 Neutral | $13.74B | -37.18 | 9.55% | ― | 13.15% | -38.82% | |
68 Neutral | $3.53B | 18.14 | 13.06% | ― | 5.04% | -10.80% | |
64 Neutral | $9.11B | 21.96 | 29.49% | 1.07% | 13.99% | -25.70% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $12.14B | 16.63 | 3.90% | ― | 5.20% | -71.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MOD
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Modine Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Modine Outlines SpinCo Spin-Off and Gentherm Combination
Neutral
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Modine Manufacturing Company made available an investor presentation it plans to use in upcoming meetings with investors, outlining details of a proposed transaction involving Modine, a spin-off entity referred to as SpinCo, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.